For all those teams’ success, there’s a notable local organization lagging behind in terms of hype: the Red Sox. Few people seem to be talking about them right now. It’s been an unusually quiet offseason across the MLB, but perhaps the only Red Sox talking point of note right now is the extended stare-down with free agent J.D. Martinez. After that, it’s… Mitch Moreland’s two-year deal? Yikes.

I’m not used to feeling so unenthused about the Red Sox. They were the team that brought me into Boston sports, after all. In a manner of speaking, I suppose I’m sort of a bandwagon fan, but it wasn’t one of the championship teams that brought me here. No, it was the 2009 team that did that — if you remember, that’s the one that got swept by the Angels in the ALDS.

It was a simple decision: “Maybe I’ll give baseball a shot.” I was in high school, and football wasn’t quite cutting it for me, so I felt it was time to branch out. The Red Sox and Angels were on, and it didn’t take long for me to get hooked. I loved Dustin Pedroia’s fiery demeanor, David Ortiz’s easy confidence, and most of all, Kevin Youkilis’ completely absurd batting stance. Jon Lester’s triumph over lymphoma was incredibly cool, and Josh Beckett looked liable to beat up an opposing hitter at a moment’s notice, which was also pretty cool in its own way.

The season ended too soon after, but it was a busy offseason for me; I needed to learn more about these players, this franchise, this city. I knew about The Curse and the legendary 2004 team that finally ended it. I didn’t know about the comeback against the Yankees, or Kevin Millar’s endless quotability, or Manny’s tendency to always be Manny. I didn’t know they went back and did it again in 2007 with plenty of new faces, including the undefinable Pedroia, the Laser Show and the Muddy Chicken, who I did know was a man after my own heart as soon as I read about his “Ask Jeff Francis who the fuck I am,” quote.

I’m on my ninth year with the Boston Red Sox now, and I’ve seen my fair share of highs and lows, from fried chicken and beer to getting a chance to watch a Boston championship myself. I got to see David Ortiz’s famed postseason heroics live before my eyes, as he was engulfed in flames against the Cardinals and drove the team of beards and Koji Uehara high fives to their third title in ten years. Those 2013 Red Sox rebounded from the worst record in the AL East the year before, which in some ways encapsulates what its been like to follow this team over that time.

If the Red Sox built my Boston fandom, then the Celtics cemented it. My timing wasn’t any better with them — I started following just late enough to miss the dominant 2007-08 championship team. Still, over the next several seasons, I was hooked. The “Big Three” Celtics were a team of dominant personalities — Paul Pierce’s unshakable confidence, Kevin Garnett’s frenzied barking, Ray Allen’s unflappable consistency — and even as they all began to grow old, there was a pridefulness to them. The decrepit Celtics were an annoyance, the team that would give too much effort every night and use their veteran saavy to frustrate younger, more athletic teams. They took LeBron James and the eventual champion Miami Heat to seven games in the 2011-12 Eastern Conference Finals, and it was sort of a last hurrah for the group. LeBron might have buried them, but they went out swinging.

Since the Celtics’ loss to Miami and the Red Sox win over St. Louis the next year, the two franchises have seemed to trend in different directions. The Celtics hit rock bottom in 2013-14, going 25-57 and finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ve made the playoffs and improved their record in every season since. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, to some extent, treading water. They’ve posted two losing seasons since the championship, followed by consecutive 93-win campaigns where they never really felt like a legitimate contender.

It feels as though there’s just more of a plan behind the Celtics than the Red Sox. Danny Ainge has spent years meticulously compiling and flipping draft picks, capitalizing on undervalued players, and finding the right opportunities to spend. The two most significant free agent signings in franchise history — Al Horford and Gordon Hayward — came in the past two offseasons. Ainge avoids panic moves and trades from a position of strength as well as any GM in professional sports, to the point where he’s often teased for his reluctance to part with his assets. This past summer, the Celtics passed on a number of potential deals for superstars who changed teams. Paul George was available, but is also on the final year of his contract, likely to bolt for Los Angeles this coming summer. It was a bad bet for Ainge to pay up for a player he couldn’t guarantee he could keep, so he didn’t.

On the flip side, the Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two — Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski. Cherington, though he had his own faults, was more similar to Ainge — building up the farm system and avoiding bad contracts that would kill flexibility… right up until he signed two awful contracts that destroyed his flexibility in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.

The Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two.

Enter Dombrowski, who, to a fault, loves the big splash. Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and by November, he’d already shelled out $217 million to David Price and shipped four prospects away in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. That’s not to say these deals were the wrong things to do at the time, but considering Dombrowski’s body of work, it’s a fair critique to say that he often opts to throw money and assets at problems until they go away.

Subsequently, this current offseason isn’t terribly surprising. Dombrowski is locked in a staring contest with J.D. Martinez, who is a player this lineup desperately needs. The Red Sox are starved for power, and previous deals have left the farm system depleted enough to make trades for top-end talent difficult. If Martinez ends up elsewhere, there may not be another move to be made right now.

And in some ways, that’s the point. Danny Ainge didn’t need Paul George. He was building on a team that made the conference finals the year before and months later is sitting in first place in the conference right now, all while sitting on a treasure hoard of draft picks and young talent. He’s a strong, independent GM who don’t need no blockbuster trade. There were dozens of pathways open to the Celtics this past summer, and all Ainge had to do was find the one he liked the best. The one he chose has the Celtics competitive right now without sacrificing virtually any long-term upside.

This kind of result is difficult to achieve without consistency, and, in essence, the Red Sox have been an organizational roller coaster. Cherington took charge and immediately had to address missteps by Theo Epstein, most notably the infamous Carl Crawford contract. Since his departure, Cherington’s carefully cultivated farm system has largely either graduated or been shipped off by Dombrowski. Conversely, Dombrowski has had to struggle with those albatross contracts for Sandoval and Ramirez, the latter of which is still owed $44 million over the next two years, assuming his option vests. They’ve been tying knots and challenging the next guy to unravel them. Is Dave Dombrowski the guy to lead a franchise to sustained, long-term success? Tigers fans of the past three seasons might have some thoughts on the matter.

This is all a long way of saying that, as a fan, the Red Sox don’t give me that feeling of utter confidence the way the Celtics do. Remember the feeling we all had when that large contract for Pablo Sandoval looked likely, even though the case against that signing was obvious? It’s certainly unrealistic to expect any team to operate as efficiently and with as high of a success rate as the Celtics have over the past 10+ years, but there’s an unavoidable aura of “I hope this doesn’t blow up in our faces” in place.

My point is not to predict doom and gloom with the current state of the Red Sox. Far from it. They’re more likely than not to win 90+ games again this season, and they have a collection of young stars like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers that will be anchoring the lineup for years to come. They have two Cy Young winners in their starting rotation, and those guys aren’t even as good as their ace. If you’re going to have problems with your baseball franchise, these are probably the ones to have — it certainly beats being the Derek Jeter-led Marlins.

But following the Red Sox transformed my sports fandom, and not long after that, the Celtics did it again. It’s impossible not to compare the two. I love watching Mookie Betts and Chris Sale, but on the macro level, something’s just fundamentally off with the Red Sox right now, and it’s never more apparent than when the Celtics are on TV. With as much as the team has going for it right now, it’s telling that they’re receiving so little buzz — and that’s without mentioning how the Yankees appear to be rising fast.

I can’t say for sure how good the Red Sox will be this season — too much depends on Martinez’s status, first and foremost. Players like Price, Ramirez, and Pedroia are aging, Chris Sale has two years remaining on his contract, and younger contributors like Betts and Bogaerts are into their arbitration seasons. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are nice prospects, but even Groome is still a-ways off, and the system around them is thin. Major roster decisions are coming in the next few years, and it’s hard to divine the greater plan in place here — if in fact there is one.

I know the Celtics will be very good, though. They already are, and there isn’t much reason to think they won’t continue to be for years to come. Danny Ainge has put together a well-oiled machine that has missed the playoffs only three times since the 2003-04 season. For a Red Sox franchise in need of some year-to-year consistency and sustained success, looking to their sibling franchise for some ideas might not be the worst idea.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper — USA TODAY Sports

Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts.

Partly that’s a function of the fact the Red Sox have been a better team than the Orioles over that time. Thus when Baltimore has picked it has more often been at the top of the draft where more is expected to come of the selection, whereas the Red Sox have often picked later where star power is much harder to come by.

But even then, the Red Sox have still done better than Baltimore. There are probably other teams that have done better than the Red Sox over the past three decades (going much deeper into draft history is pointless as the draft has changed so much since) but though they exist they likely aren’t many. Take for example, Boston’s pick in the fifth round of the 2011 draft has, by Baseball Reference WAR, out-produced every player taken in the first round of that same draft. That would be Mookie Betts, and that would be amazing.

Of course, that’s not the only time the Red Sox have had a non-first round pick and (to date) got more production out of it than any of the first rounders used that in that same draft. They did it in 2004 when they used the 65th overall pick to take Dustin Pedroia. If you want to hold this exercise to just the first round though, well, even then the Red Sox have done well. The following draft, 2005, the Red Sox had the 23rd pick as compensation for Orlando Cabrera signing with the Angels. They used it on outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, the sixth most valuable player (B-R WAR) taken in that draft.

So the Red Sox have scored when they should’ve scored and scored when they probably shouldn’t have scored. But they haven’t always nailed it. In 2010, they used the 20th overall pick on Kolbrin Vitek with Christian Yelich taken three picks later. Vitek never made it above Double-A, retiring four years after being picked. Even so though, the 20th pick isn’t a surefire star waiting to happen. That’s more like a guy you’d hope could turn into a solid contributor. Vitek never was that (why he’s mentioned in this paragraph!) but missing out on the 20th overall pick isn’t something to quit over. Oddly enough, current Red Sox star pitcher Chris Sale was selected seven picks earlier, but I digress.

The real problem, as the Orioles can attest to, is getting a top-ten pick and blowing it on nothing. The Red Sox haven’t officially done that yet, but it’s pretty close. Trey Ball has a 5.53 ERA in Double-A and is looking less like a future rotation cornerstone and more like a guy who gets dropped in the end of an insubstantial trade, or even converted to the outfield because why not? Worse, Boston took Ball with a bunch of still promising guys available (Austin Meadows, JP Crawford, Hunter Dozier, Christian Arroyo, Aaron Judge), though that’s how every draft is. There’s always someone promising available. The trick is knowing who it is.

You have to go pretty far back to find so high a pick go so badly for the Red Sox. In 1995 the Red Sox took pitcher Andy Yount two picks before Roy Halladay went to the Blue Jays, but that was with the 15th overall pick, not the seventh. In 1994 Boston took Nomar Garciaparra with the 12th pick, and in ’93 they took Trot Nixon with the seventh pick. Hard to complain about either, even if Nixon didn’t ever quite live up to the star power that was projected upon him.

Since Theo Epstein took over the GM’s seat in early 2003 the Red Sox have been incredibly good at getting value out of the draft. It’s hard to win three World Series in fifteen years without getting something substantial from the draft. The Red Sox built the foundation of their first World Series winning team through trades and free agency, but their second, the 2007 team came far more from the draft. While there were ’04 crossovers in Jason Varitek and David Ortiz, and free agents like J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo, the ’07 team was also Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Jonathan Papelbon. The 2013 team was similar in its composition. Lots of free agents and players acquired in trades, but with a solid core of home grown players like Lester, Pedroia, Felix Doubront, Clay Buchholz, Will Middlebrooks, and Ellsbury, with assists from Xander Bogaerts and even Jackie Bradley.

Looking at that 2013 squad, you can still see the roots stretching back to Theo Epstein and Boston’s first world championship in almost a century, but so can you see the future, or as we here in 2017 say, the present. The Red Sox don’t owe it all to the draft. They’re not the Rays or the Astros, but the draft has provided the Red Sox with a lot of value and a sizable amount of star power over the past few decades. So when going to look for Boston’s biggest draft busts or some such thing, you’ll have to be searching for a long time. Or, put more succinctly, the Red Sox aren’t the Orioles. Because when it comes to the draft, the Red Sox are hobgood at it.

Photo by Eric Hartline – USA TODAY Sports

Beltre’s 2010 was a breakthrough after five middling seasons in Seattle. He emerged as a top-tier player who was a strong fielder and could hit for power. He was a legitimate star on a mediocre team lacking in star power (or, according to Tom Werner, sexiness). An impending free agent, Beltre positioned himself for a nice payday in the offseason.

It seemed clear the Sox wouldn’t be the ones to pay him. Beltre was 31 years old and, like many players before him, excelled in a contract year. The Red Sox would receive two compensation picks if he signed elsewhere. Letting Beltre, who was not a lock to match his 2010 numbers again, walk in exchange for a pair of picks in what was expected to be a deep draft looked like the obvious choice.

So that’s what the Sox did. Beltre signed a five-year, $96 million deal with the Rangers. The Red Sox moved Kevin Youkilis to third and traded for All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Boston later used its compensation picks to draft outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and catcher Blake Swihart, both of whom had the makings of top prospects. The Red Sox were World Series favorites and their future was solidified.

The Red Sox lost a player whose production hardly wavered over the duration of his next contract — in fact, Beltre has been one of the best third basemen in baseball over that span — and the Sox in return were one of the worst teams at third base.

But did they make the right decision?

Hindsight is a funny thing. We as writers and fans use it as a tool to reflect on a team’s past decisions. In most cases the answer is pretty explicit. However, in this situation hindsight paints a fuzzy picture even five years later. On one end, the Sox lost a player whose production hardly wavered over the duration of his next contract — in fact, Beltre has been one of the best third basemen in baseball over that span — and the Sox in return were one of the worst teams at third base.

But by moving on Boston has acquired a pair of young players with the potential to be mainstays for the coming years. Bradley is one of the most exciting outfielders the team has produced in recent memory, and despite inconsistencies has shown he can be a dangerous hitter when hot. Swihart came into 2015 as the team’s top prospect and made the most of his opportunity in the majors this season. Their development is crucial given their role in the Beltre decision.

Texas is out of the postseason and Beltre’s contract is up, which makes it an appropriate time to reflect on how this move worked out for the Red Sox. There’s plenty still to be determined, but also enough evidence available to make the picture a little clearer.

Let’s start with Beltre. He slashed .309/.358/.514 from 2011-15 and with a solid 24.2 WARP in that time. He was a three-time All-Star, won a pair of Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers and in 2012 was third in the AL MVP voting. Simply put, the Rangers, who made the postseason three of those five years, got more than their money’s worth out of Beltre.

As for the Red Sox? They’ve gone through three starting third basemen — Youkilis, Will Middlebrooks and Pablo Sandoval — in the past five years, with a few part-timers sprinkled in, and none of their numbers comes close to what Beltre has accomplished. Boston was 21st in wOBA over that time and is now locked in a regrettable contract at the position thanks to Sandoval. The Sox seemingly have no better answers.

Don’t believe it’s been that bad? Here’s how it’s looked year by year.

2011

Adrian Beltre: 124 games; .304 TAv; .381 wOBA; 4.6 WARP

Kevin Youkilis: 120 games; .287 TAv; .366 wOBA; 2.6 WARP

This one is actually pretty close. Both players had All-Star-caliber seasons with the offensive numbers ending up nearly identical. At this point it looks like not re-signing Beltre was the right decision. The Red Sox made big acquisitions at other spots, got their two picks and hardly had a drop-off at third in Beltre’s absence. So far, so good.

2012

Adrian Beltre: 156 games; .322 TAv; .388 wOBA; 5.7 WARP

Kevin Youkilis: 42 games; .247 TAv; .328 wOBA (2012 total); -0.1 WARP

Will Middlebrooks: 75 games; .279 TAv; .357 wOBA; 1.8 WARP

Youkilis had a brief and forgettable stint with the Bobby Valentine-led Sox before being traded to the White Sox in June. But no need to worry. Boston called up Will Middlebrooks and the rookie had a promising campaign before a wrist injury cut it short. Meanwhile, Beltre was having what would be his best season over the course of the deal. Still, Middlebrooks’ emergence continued to make the Red Sox look smart.

2013

Adrian Beltre: 161 games; .312 TAv; .379 wOBA; 5.7 WARP

Will Middlebrooks: 94 games; .240 TAv; .300 wOBA; 0.8 WARP

This is where the discrepancy starts to show. Beltre continued to produce at an elite level, while Middlebrooks struggled in his second season, battling both injury and poor play. The Sox got a bulk of the season out of Middlebrooks, while Jose Iglesias, Xander Bogaerts, Pedro Ciriaco and Brandon Snyder all saw time at third as well. It was too early to say Middlebrooks wasn’t the long-term solution at third by this point, but it certainly wasn’t looking good.

2014

Adrian Beltre: 148 games; .320 TAv; .380 wOBA; 4.9 WARP

Will Middlebrooks: 63 games; .188 TAv; .238 wOBA; -1.2 WARP

Xander Bogaerts: 44 games at third; .247 TAv; .294 wOBA; 0.7 WARP

Brock Holt: 39 games at third; .261 TAv; .317 wOBA; 1.6 WARP

This one is complicated from a Red Sox perspective, but nothing short of disastrous. Middlebrooks spent more of the season on the disabled list than actually playing. That opened up third base for Xander Bogaerts, who had an ugly 44-game stint at third before going back to shortstop, and Brock Holt. Needless to say no one in Boston could come close to Beltre’s 2014 production, which resulted in another All-Star selection.

2015

Adrian Beltre: 143 games; .278 TAv; .337 wOBA; 3.3 WARP

Pablo Sandoval: 126 games; .229 TAv; .288 wOBA; -1.4 WARP

This was arguably the worst result of letting Beltre walk. In need of a viable third baseman, the Red Sox signed Pablo Sandoval to a five-year, $95 million contract, a deal nearly identical to Beltre’s after 2010. The result has been far, far worse. Sandoval had the worst season of any qualified third baseman in baseball, both from an offensive and defensive standpoint. Beltre’s 2015 was a drop-off from the previous four seasons, but far from a disappointment as he was still one of the most valuable third basemen in the game. Oh yeah, and, barring a miracle, Boston still has four more years of Sandoval.

The Red Sox would’ve been better off with Beltre over any other third baseman they’ve used over the last five years, and it would’ve come at a fair price. That’s evident, but the value of the return is still to be determined.

Boston got two prospects out of Beltre, and both have developed into major leaguers. Bradley is a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder who can’t consistently hit big league pitching. He had a nightmare rookie season at the plate in 2014, and spent most of last season in Triple-A Pawtucket before getting called up permanently in August. He finished 2015 with a .280 TAv in 255 plate appearances and was one of the team’s best hitters over the last six weeks of the season, a sizeable improvement from the year before that gives him a legitimate shot at a starting job next season.

Swihart has the potential to be a star. Injuries to Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan forced the Sox to call him up earlier than expected this season, but he improved steadily as the year went on, establishing himself as a serviceable catcher with a solid bat. (He finished 12th among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances with a .312 wOBA.) His development more than anything else could be the difference between whether or not losing Beltre was worth it.

Swihart’s future with the Red Sox, however, is uncertain with Vazquez expected to be ready for next season. Swihart could be a trade chip, or he could be forced to earn the spot over Vazquez, who was the odds-on favorite to be the team’s starting catcher this year before undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery in the spring.

In a world where prospects are overrated and each year is unpredictable, it’s often better to go with the safe bet. In hindsight, that’s exactly what Beltre would’ve been. The Red Sox have received little production at third over the last five years, all while Beltre has consistently been one of the game’s best. His presence would’ve made a difference as Boston stumbled to three last-place finishes.

The potential of both Swihart and Bradley is exciting, and they may be around far longer than Beltre would have. But Bradley, at best, is a bottom-of-the-order hitter with a spectacular glove. Swihart may become a star, or he may not. Worst of all, there may still be four more years of Sandoval.

Perhaps the future will swing the decision more in the Red Sox’s favor, but unless both Swihart and Bradley blossom, they would’ve been much better off with Beltre.

Photo by Carey Edmondson/USA Today Sports Images