Acquired LHP Chris Sale from Chicago White Sox in exchange for INF-B Yoan Moncada, RHP Michael Kopech, OF-B Luis Alexander Basabe, and RHP Victor Diaz. [12/6]

One imagines Dave Dombrowski climbing down to the field level at Fenway Park, lifting his arms in the air and screaming “ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED” to the heavens.

Last offseason, Dombrowski didn’t make any franchise-altering moves, and that came as a bit of a surprise. Sure, he traded away Manny Margot and decent secondary prospects for Craig Kimbrel, but Boston’s system was so deep and their need at reliever so great that most people (myself included) forgave that perceived overpay. Dealing Anderson Espinoza to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz at midseason was big too, but not like this. Nothing like this.

In acquiring Chris Sale for three of their remaining top prospects–including one truly elite talent in Moncada–the Red Sox have fundamentally changed their outlook now and well into the future. And while they’ve gutted their farm system in the process–Dombrowski doesn’t care about your prospects, fam–they haven’t meaningfully impacted the young nucleus that led them to the playoffs last season.

Read the rest for free at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by David Banks II/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

After a slew of promising starts for Johnson, the lefty hit a small bump in the road during his latest outing. On Sunday, Johnson only lasted three innings in Columbus, allowing four earned runs on six hits in three innings. He also struck out one and walked four, throwing 78 pitches, 46 of them being strikes. It was an unfortunate outing to cap off what had been, for the most part, an encouraging July from Johnson.

This was his first start for Pawtucket since he took some time off, so an adjustment period is to be expected. Anxiety is no joke, and with other viable (whatever, they might be) options in Triple-A, there’s no real rush for Johnson. Still, he didn’t look half bad in four starts split between Lowell and the Red Sox Gulf Coast affiliate, so the potential is still there. It will be interesting to see how quickly he gets back to where he was before he was placed on the temporary inactive list in early May.

Quick update on Henry Owens

If you can believe it, Owens followed up a strong start with a poor one. After posting seven innings of one-hit ball on the 16th — arguably his strongest outing of the year — Owens was flat five days later, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings. He also walked three.

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

He’s the one raking in Portland that isn’t mentioned in Chris Sale rumors. Over the last 10 games he’s hitting .421 and is riding a seven game hitting streak. MLB.com has Dubon ranked as the 11th best prospect in the Red Sox system. He started the year in Salem, slashing .306/.387/.379 (with a pedestrian .766 OPS, though) and has missed a beat since being promoted. In 27 games at Portland, he’s hitting .333/.372/.476 and raised that OPS to .848.

The irony of him not being mentioned in trade rumors is that if the Sox make a move over the next week, it’s more likely than not it’s Dubon on the move than Benintendi or Moncada. It’s unfortunate that he’s blocked by two organizational cornerstones and a third wunderkind that might very well also be one, but Dubon is a nice prospect who could turn into a serviceable every day starter for someone down the line.

Quick Update on Yoan Moncada 

The last 10 days in Portland haven’t been kind to Moncada, who’s hitting a measly .167 over that last span. He hasn’t hit a home run since he hit two in one game on July 18th. [Editor’s note: These stats are through 7/25, and Moncada did hit a homer last night]

Even Quicker Update on Andrew Benintendi

He’s playing left field now! It’s all happening!

High-A Salem: Rafael Devers (3B)

He’s had quite a week, hitting .300/.391/.650 with a 1.041 OPS over the last seven days. He’s hit .378/.434/.711 during an out-of-his-mind stretch throughout July. This season, his month splits go as such:

April: .138/.242./.263
May: .245/.301/.351
June: .313/.351/.386
July: .378/.434/.711

It’s well documented that Devers was wildly unlucky to start the year – in April he had a ugly .145 BABIP. This July, that numbers up at .458, which is fun. Totally, completely unsustainable, but fun. In a perfect world Portland plays at least a few games with Benintendi, Devers, and Dubon all on the left side with Moncada at second. Could that team beat the Sixers!?

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

He’s hitting .318 over the last week and .373 in the month of July. Considering he’s a career .260 hitter throughout his short career, there’s probably some sort of regression not far away. He has five plus tools, although scouts seem to be the least confident in the hit tool. He’s shown some of that surprising power this month as well, hitting four home runs while only hitting six in the previous three months combined.

He was also born in 1996, and there’s nothing quite like writing about young prospects to help remind you that time is fleeting and we all grow old.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Roenis Elias (LHP) and Bryce Brentz (OF)

Roenis Elias was the second player the Red Sox acquired in the Wade Miley-Carson Smith trade with the Mariners this winter. Elias seemed to fit in among the Steven Wright, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson morass of a fifth spot in the rotation. But then his 10.45 ERA in the spring ensured he would start the year at Pawtucket, and unfortunately things have gotten only slightly better. Through his first 25 innings this season he had a 7.20 RA9 (4.83 FIP). Walking 19 batters while striking out 20 will do that to you. Clearly things have been rough for Elias, and just as his chances of getting another shot in the big leagues appeared to be slipping away, he went out and was pretty dominant in his most recent start. Over 7.2 innings (his longest of the season) he allowed only two runs (both solo home runs), walked nobody (!) and struck out 13 (!). According to a report from Tim Britton of The Providence Journal, Pawtucket pitching coach Bob Kipper noticed a rhythm issue in Elias’ delivery and worked with him to implement a freer approach with how he delivered the ball. Obviously, the early results from this adjustment are positive. If it is truly the change needed to get Elias back on track, maintaining consistency with the adjusted delivery will be crucial. If Elias is unstuck and can return to a moderate level of effectiveness, he provides the Red Sox an option other than Henry Owens to fill an open rotation spot.

Bryce Brentz suffered an oblique strain during Spring Training that kept him out of game action for the first two weeks of the season. Then once he got into the lineup it took some time to get things going. He spent the first part of the season at Double-A Portland, where he accumulated 48 plate appearances and posted a .200/.333/.325 line with two doubles and one home run. That is not a great line, but he was moved back up to Pawtucket and with his promotion came a bump in his offensive production. Over his 48 PA with the PawSox he has posted a .295/.354/.364 line, with three doubles but no home runs. While his batting average has seen the largest jump, largely a result of a correspondingly large rise in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his power is still lacking. His .068 isolated power this season at Pawtucket, will, if it continues, be the lowest mark of his career (among stints with at least 25 PA). Brentz is projected for considerable power, so this lack of it in the early going is slightly concerning. But it is only 48 PA, so there is not yet any real reason for alarm.

Brentz’s path to the big leagues appears murky. His hit tool is likely his ticket upward, but he needs to hit more than he has this year and did last year (.264 TAv), or at least get back to his lefty-mashing ways of 2014 when he posted a 1.039 OPS against lefties (.698 OPS against righties) if he is going to get called up. His defense is fine, but not outstanding to the point of needing to have him roam the Fenway lawn. According to his fielding runs above average number, which should be interpreted cautiously, he was an above average outfielder last year, but is back below average this year. Regardless, with a defender like Rusney Castillo, a utility guy like Brock Holt, and infielders like Travis Shaw and Blake Swihart all ahead of Brentz on the outfield depth chart, Brentz’s chances to get back to the big leagues with Boston appear grim.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF)

When we last checked on Rusney Castillo, he was struggling at the plate, especially in the power department. That problem has not changed. He has nine hits over the last two weeks – all but one of which are singles – and has walked and struck out twice. Put it all together and his season line now sits at an unimpressive .256/.313/.308. While many (including me) thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was the all-glove, no-bat outfielder in the Red Sox system, at least Bradley Jr. hit at Pawtucket. The same cannot be said for Castillo. This is probably the last time I provide this sort of quick update on him.

Double-A Portland: Aaron Wilkerson (RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

In 2015, the relatively unheralded Aaron Wilkerson moved from Low-A to High-A to Double-A over the course of the season. In his 119.2 innings between Salem (79.0) and Portland (40.2), Wilkerson posted a remarkable 3.08 RA9, with a 2.13 FIP that suggested he was even better. This year he has picked up where he left off, dominating opponents and posting scoreless innings. To date, he has made seven starts for the Sea Dogs, five of which have been scoreless and only one was a clunker (3.1 innings, six runs, eight hits, three walks, four strikeouts). All told, in his 39.1 innings for the Sea Dogs he has struck out 46 batters while walking 12. His last time out, against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (the Blue Jays’ affiliate), he had arguably his best start of the season, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. After reading about Wilkerson’s domination, it seems as though he is due for a promotion to Triple-A. Well, he had an opportunity earlier this season to start a game for Pawtucket and it did not go too well (4.2 innings, seven hits, three runs, one home run, three walks, five strikeouts). He was sent back to Portland after the outing and his first start back was the clunker I mentioned above; certainly an interesting week for Mr. Wilkerson. In any case, if he continues to impress at Double-A the way he has so far he will get another chance at the next level.

Two weeks ago I campaigned for Andrew Benintendi to get promoted to Portland so that I could watch him play. The promotion came too late for me to see him, but it came nevertheless. He has now played four games for the Sea Dogs and is still adjusting to the higher level. He has been held hitless, a feat that seemed unthinkable at High-A, in three of his four games and has struck out in five of his 16 PA. To put that in some perspective, he struck out just nine times in his 155 PA with Salem this year. Benintendi has done nothing but hit at an advanced level at each stop in his young career, so it seems likely that he will get back to raking soon.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball (LHP)

The Red Sox selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh pick of the 2013 first-year player draft. Since then Ball has struggled to live up to his draft status in ways that other Red Sox seventh-overall picks have (see Benintendi, Andrew). At each of his three stops in the Red Sox system, Ball has posted an ERA over 4.50 with corresponding fielding independent numbers that suggest he has been that bad. Thus far in 2016, Ball has been effective in limiting runs from scoring (1.96 RA9), but his 4.20 FIP portends a return to previous runs allowed marks, as do his career low .203 BABIP and career high 84.8% strand rate. Basically, he has been navigating trouble by having opponents hit it where they are, which probably won’t last.

Generally, Ball’s major issue is walking batters. In 23.0 innings this year he has allowed nine walks (3.51 BB/9). Last year it was even worse, as he allowed 60 walks in his 129.1 innings pitched for Salem (4.18 BB/9). He has to reduce his walk totals if he is going to succeed and move up in the system. In his most recent outing, Ball kept the opponents, Kansas City’s High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, off the scoreboard, scattered five hits, and only walked two batters over a career high seven innings. What’s more is that he struck out six batters, the third highest total in his young career. Ideally this start is an indication he is headed in the right direction, but it is one start and the Blue Rocks are the weakest offensive team in the Carolina League this year.

Updates on Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers:

Yoan Moncada, like his old teammate Benintendi, is likely to get a promotion soon. He is still dominating pitchers at his level to the tune of a .324/.454/.510 line, and has 29 stolen bases in 35 tries.

Just when it seemed Rafael Devers was coming out of his early season struggles, he had another rough couple of weeks going .182/.234/.205 over his most recent 47 PA. His season line is currently 39 percent worse than average, so he has a lot of work to do if he is going to join his fellow Big Three teammates in Portland.

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

The Greenville Drive team’s offense has been great in the early going this season, and that is despite top-prospect Luis Alexander Basabe struggling to consistently produce. Basabe was signed by the Red Sox, along with his brother Luis Alejandro Basabe, in 2012. Luis Alexander spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in rookie ball, before getting assigned to Lowell last year for his age-18 season. At each level he has produced solid offensive numbers, but has had difficulty thus far at Low-A. His season line is currently .213/.265/.418, which is a bit of a strange line that comes as a result of half of his 26 hits going for extra bases (five doubles, four triples, four home runs). Regardless, a .213 batting average is ugly, and mixing it with a lack of walks is also concerning. He clearly needs to develop better plate discipline, work to earn more walks and focus on attacking pitches in the strike zone. His combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and below-typical BABIP (.282) could suggest that the low batting average comes as a result of him often making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, which tend to have poorer outcomes. Without access to his swing and batted ball data (i.e., O-Swing%, O-Contact%, exit velocity) I cannot address this hypothesis directly, but the poor plate discipline numbers point to it being plausible. Regardless, given his age, Basabe will spend at least this season with the Drive, so he will have plenty of time and many opportunities to develop into a more well-rounded hitter.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

In August 2012, the Red Sox signed Luis Basabe as an international amateur free agent out of Venezuela for $450,000, along with fellow amateur Luis Basabe. Okay, that was confusing. Luis Alexander Basabe was signed as an international amateur free agent out of Venezuela for $450,000, along with his twin brother, Luis Alejandro Basabe. That’s right, his parents had twins and named them both Luis Basabe.

For a couple years, that was the most interesting fact about either Basabe brother, as both sort of toiled in the DSL and GCL after signing. Alexander took a step ahead of Alejandro in 2014, particularly in the Dominican League, where he put up an .887 OPS before being sent stateside. He was given another promotion prior to the 2015 season, getting a chance to compete against New York Penn League competition in Lowell. It was there that he really showed off the strong — but raw — tools he possesses.

What Went Right in 2015

Although Basabe’s numbers in Lowell don’t jump out like, say, Andrew Benintendi’s, it was a solid year of initial exposure to stateside baseball for the young outfielder. As an 18-year-old in a league full of former college players, Basabe more than held his own and showed why many evaluators are excited about his potential. Excited enough, it turns out, to be ranked as a top-six prospect in BP’s Red Sox list on Tuesday.

In particular, Basabe’s power potential was something that truly stood out in his time as a Spinner. Again, the numbers don’t tell the whole story in this case. Although he only finished with a .158 ISO, many observers who saw him believe there is bigger potential in his bat. As someone who saw Basabe a bunch this summer, I can confirm that the ball flies off his bat when he makes contact. Even better, he can hit from either side of the plate.

Basabe also showed off some impressive patience for someone his age. Now, some of this is skewed by the low quality of pitchers in the short-season levels of the minors, but he’s been able to maintain double-digit walk rates at every stop in his, admittedly, young career.

Most importantly, the teenager showed everyone the kind of superior athlete he is. Basabe’s speed was on display both on the base paths and in the field. He’s obviously going to need to develop more feel for the game as he ascends through the minors to reach his peak, but Basabe is certainly the kind of athlete who can be a plus defender in center field while also threatening to swipe 20-plus bags a year.

What Went Wrong in 2015

As you might have guessed from all the talk of raw tools above, Basabe also proved to be a little rough around the edges in 2015. While the walk rate was great, he had trouble making steady contact due to an inconsistent approach and a relatively long swing. This is the type of issue that leads to a 26 percent strikeout rate and a .243 AVG in the NYPL, and, more importantly, the type of weakness that can be exposed against stiffer competition higher up in the minors.

More generally, Basabe struggled to find any consistency through the year. There are days when he looks like a clear top-100 prospect, such as his two multi-homer games over a one-week span in early July. Unfortunately, there are also stretches where he looks like a career minor-leaguer, such as his five games with at least three strikeouts. While the tools are clearly there, Basabe’s future would be a lot easier to buy into if he was able to succeed more regularly at a level that has propelled many prospects before him.

Future Outlook/MLB ETA

What’s important to remember is that Basabe is still far from the big leagues in terms of both level and development. He’s yet to make his full-season debut — something he’s likely to do in 2016 — so we have no idea how he’ll hold up over five or six months of playing against better opposition. Assuming he begins the year in Greenville, he’ll again be one of the youngest players at the level and will be facing off against more advanced pitchers than he’s ever seen.

If Basabe can adjust to that competition, there will be even more optimism that he can reach his ceiling of a first-division center fielder with a potent power/speed combination. As fun as it is to dream, he’s more likely at this point to end up as a second-division starter who could have some contact problems but can carry most of his weight with the glove.

As for when we’ll see him in Boston? Any time before 2019 is likely out of the question, and a slow adjustment period this year could push that ETA back to 2020.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Last Year’s Red Sox List

The State of the System: This system is so young it doesn’t even get an allowance yet, but boy is it talented.

The Top Ten

1. 2B Yoan Moncada
2. RHP Anderson Espinoza
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. OF Andrew Benintendi
5. RHP Michael Kopech
6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe
7. 1B Sam Travis
8. LHP Brian Johnson
9. SS Deven Marrero
10. C Austin Rei

1. Yoan Moncada, 2B
DOB: 05/27/1995
Height/Weight: 6’2” 205 lbs
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed March 2015 out of Cuba for $31.5 million
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: .278/.380/.438, 8 HR, 49 SB in 363 PA at Low-A Greenville
Future Tools: 70 speed, 60 hit, 60 glove, 60 arm, 55 power
Role: 70—Perennial All-Star second baseman

When you’re given as much money as Moncada was and hyped as the best thing to come out of Cuba since Daisy Fuentes, expectations are going to be high. All things considered, it’s safe to say he met them, especially in the second half of the year. The swing is slightly “prettier” from the left side, but there’s plus bat speed from both sides of the plate, and it stays in the hitting zone long enough to lash line drives all over the field. He’s ripped, and that strength and some leverage give him above-average power, even with a swing that doesn’t incorporate much loft. He’s a very smart hitter who shows advanced selectivity at the plate, and while that also comes with some strikeouts, the walks help compensate. Like Homestar Runner he’s a terrific athlete with plus-plus speed, and he’s going to provide tremendous value on the bases.

Moncada does not have the same skill set defensively, but it should be enough for him to stick at second base. He doesn’t always get great jumps, and like most kids not old enough to drink there are both physical and mental mistakes aplenty. Still, there’s more than enough athleticism to compensate, and his plus throwing arm stands out at the keystone.

There’s a little more work to be done than anticipated, but it shouldn’t surprise if this ends up being the guy we call the best prospect in baseball next year—maybe even this summer.

Bret Sayre’s Fantasy take: What else is there to say about the third-best fantasy prospect in baseball? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here—if everything comes together for Moncada, his fantasy numbers could look something like whatHanley Ramirez put up in his 20s. That’s both incredibly exciting and an incredibly unfair statistical comp to put on someone, but he could be the top second sacker for fantasy by 2018.

Major League ETA: 2017

Read the rest of the article for free at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com