But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.

When you think of a guy you want in the eighth inning, Matt Barnes is far from your first choice, even if you limit it to only Red Sox and exclude Kimbrel as the closer. The relievers you want there can’t crumble under pressure, have some filthy pitches, and can be relied on as a “fireman” pitcher of sorts — to put an end to situations where the opposing team can put your lead to the torch. Barnes definitely had at least one filthy pitch, but the other two parts of that? Not so much. Barnes wasn’t worse than his 2016 self, but he also wasn’t a pitcher you felt comfortable putting in high-leverage situations, and he didn’t do much to keep your heart rate down. That’s the nature of relievers, but for Barnes, it was pretty apparent.

What Went Right

Barnes took notable steps forward from 2016. His strikeout rate rose over four percentage points to 28.9 percent, which was second-best of all relievers on the team. His walk rate dropped a single point to 9.8 percent, which was still mediocre — but it’s an improvement nonetheless! When the time came to eat up innings, Barnes excelled, striking out over 31 percent of batters in low and medium leverage situations, with a combined FIP nearing 3.20. He might not be a fireman, but he’s perfect for the mop-up crew.

His peripherals were solid, with a 3.33 FIP and a 3.22 DRA overall. Barnes also induced groundballs on 48 percent of all contact, easily the best of his career. He also substantially lowered the amount of hard-hit balls as those went below 30 percent of all contact, the first time that number hasn’t hovered around 35 percent in his career. The amount of fly balls dropped for the fourth straight season, and now sits just north of 28 percent. There’s a lot of career numbers here for Barnes, but just by looking at these numbers, he’s a strikeout machine that gets a ton of wormburners. That’ll fly.

Also his signature curveball still has that bite. Not even Brian Dozier can resist swinging when Barnes drops the hammer:

What Went Wrong

Pitching in tough spots isn’t easy to do, but Barnes absolutely crumbled in those situations. When pitching in a high leverage situation this season, Barnes’ strikeout and walk rates dropped to 20.3 percent and 17.1 percent, respectively. He allowed a .404 BABIP, a 8.78 ERA, and batters ripped a line drive on over 33 percent of contact made. Barnes had 13.1 innings pitched in high leverage situations, and he allowed 13 earned runs (14 total!), gave out 10 free passes, 15 hits, and allowed nearly two baserunners per inning. That’s downright ghastly. There’s a lot of credit due to the rest of the Red Sox bullpen for being able to build a bridge to Kimbrel here, since Barnes certainly didn’t make it easy on them.

If the last paragraph’s carnage wasn’t enough for you, Barnes also bought into the retaliation garbage with Manny Machado early in the season:

This is reprehensibly stupid, and Barnes totally deserved to be ejected. Christian Vazquez sets up low and away, and Barnes goes headhunting. For reasons that have been elaborated on by people far smarter than me, don’t ever do this. Or, in Barnes’ case, don’t ever do this again.

What To Expect

Hopefully some progression in the high leverage department. Barnes was truly awful in those few innings, but it’s also just 13 innings. It’s another small sample size, and when you’re dealing with one like that, the potential range of outcomes is pretty vast. He’s better than that, even if he only has his control 50 percent of the time.

Barnes has been improving year by year, and 2017 was mostly good for him. He’s slowly turning into a good reliever, and it’s no fluke. If he can learn to deal with being under pressure, and actually play up to his peripherals, we’ll see him turn in a better year than ever before. If not, well, we’re in for more of the same, which isn’t a bad thing, but it’ll keep him from being anything more than a solid innings eater.

Photo by Winslow Townson — USA TODAY Sports

One thing that makes the Red Sox media unique is the collective focus on specific players, as in specific players who don’t play for the Red Sox. You may recall the obsession, years before he ever became a Red Sox, of Adrian Gonzalez. It was like the Globe, the Herald, Over The Monster, fans all over New England, and everybody in Red Sox nation pretty much went, “We HAVE to get that guy.” For a while that same kinda it’ll-happen-eventually focus was directed at Giancarlo Stanton as well. It made sense because Stanton fit a similar mold. Both players were/are fantastic. But both were, at the time, under-paid, young superstars on garbage teams going nowhere, and both filled big holes on the Red Sox. The obsession with Stanton ended about three years ago though. In fact, I can pinpoint the day. It was November 19, 2014, the day the Marlins gave Stanton a 13 year, $325 million contract and that pretty much stopped the articles and the drooling on talk radio. Stanton was staying in Miami. Drat.

At the same time in Boston, the Red Sox assembled one of the best young outfields in baseball. Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts have been joined by Andrew Benintendi and, [counts] one-two-three, that’s a full outfield. So, sadly, that closes the door to acquiring Stanton and his beautiful, prodigious home run swing on both sides.

But [grabs crowbar] how about we jerk that sucker back open again, eh? Yes, this is one of THOSE columns, the kind you thought you were done with, the kind that basically says over and over and over in 20 different ways why and how the Red Sox should/could trade for Giancarlo Stanton. Again, I’m sorry, but you know I gotta beat Brisbee on this, so no time like the present!

A couple of things have happened that have shoved this old door back open again. The first is that Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has decided he’s sufficiently ruined baseball in south Florida and it’s time to move on to ruining other stuff. Lollipops, perhaps, or love seats. Maybe goats. Who knows what is next project will be or how he will ruin it, but that’s outside the purview of this column. What inside the purview of this column is that Loria, the guy who signed off on Stanton’s massive contract and who has a violent hatred of lollipops and medium sized living room furniture, is headed out the door, and getting the huge financial commitment to Stanton off the Marlins’ books might help facilitate a sale.

Stanton is only in year three of his deal but the Marlins are, again, terrible. Since Stanton signed the deal amidst much fanfare and promises from the top brass (read: Loria) that the Marlins would do their damnedest to be competitive, the team has gone 203-233, and there’s no particular reason to think things will get much better any time soon. So the Marlins would probably like to deal Stanton and Stanton might not mind being traded away, depending on where he was headed.

Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.

At first glance though, you might not think the Red Sox would be a team that would need Stanton. Boston’s outfield is full, you remember, with very good young players. Let’s get back to the outfield though. First, this: David Ortiz retired after the 2016 season. That 2016 team hit 208 homers, good for ninth in baseball. This season the Red Sox have had a much harder time hitting the ball over the wall. As of this writing they have 116 long balls, good for 27th in baseball. They need someone to hit some damn dingers. Stanton hit his 39th homer Thursday night, a number which leads the league. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team. I’m going to write that sentence again. Stanton, by himself, has 35 percent of the homers hit by the entire Red Sox team.

Stanton isn’t just a home run hitter though. He walks, he hits doubles and singles, and he gets on base (.369 this season). He’s the middle of the order guy the Red Sox had for 14 years in Boston, but don’t have anymore. Bluntly, he’s what this lineup lacks.

Of course, every team wants Stanton, but that’s the thing because now that he’s not making the league minimum anymore, not every team can take him. Now teams must find a way to deal with his salary and that’s not something most teams can handle doing. But the Red Sox can.

Here’s the secret though. Right now Stanton’s deal is an albatross, a massive hit that most teams just can’t afford. But really, secretly, it isn’t! In two years, players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will reach the free agent market and what they get will dwarf the $32 million Stanton will earn in the most expensive seasons of his deal. Last off-season free agents made about $8 million a win. In a year it’ll be more. It keeps going up, and when Harper and the rest reach free agency, we’ll likely be talking about even more. At this rate Stanton will reach about six wins in 2017. At $32 million, that’s $5.3 million a win. Of course Stanton isn’t making $32 million this year and he won’t make that next year either. He won’t make that much until 2023 when wins will probably we worth about $32 million a piece on the market.

Stanton might not reach six wins each season (this would be the third time in six full seasons he’s done it) and he’s had some injury issues so the team would have to believe he could stay healthy. But Stanton will be just 28 next season. The potential for a middle-of-the-order bat for the next decade and at prices below those on the free agent market is there. Or, if Harper and Machado truly break the bank in two off-seasons, perhaps Stanton opts out of his deal and the Red Sox get him for just the three years and $77 million between now and then. That is not bad and you have to think that, given the structure of the deal (small money before the opt-out, huge money after), that’s exactly what Loria was banking on happening.

Where would Stanton fit on the Red Sox and how much would it take to get him? Easy question and hard question. Easy question: anywhere he wants! Stanton is 27 and he’s an outfielder so he’d fit in the outfield, either left or right field depending (hopefully left). But there’s no room in the Red Sox outfield, right? Well (harder question) trading for Stanton will cost something so it would make sense for Boston to deal one of their starting outfielders for him. Clearly it wouldn’t be Mookie Betts, but depending on the financial situation (i.e. how much money Miami pays of Stanton’s deal, if any) it might make sense to deal either Benintendi (I know, I know) or, more likely, Jackie Bradley with Benintendi going to right field and Betts moving to center. The Red Sox don’t seem to be all in on Bradley despite his amazing defense and occasional MVP impressions at the plate so perhaps that’s a good starting point.

It would be a complicated deal, what with all Stanton’s money, Stanton’s no-trade clause, and the uncertainty of his opt-out following the 2020 season. It’s all very complex and honestly I have no idea how to sort it all out. I just know that the Marlins would love to be rid of Stanton’s money, Stanton would probably love to be on a winning team, and the Red Sox would love to have someone step into the middle of their lineup and fill the David Ortiz-sized hole there. That’s a lot of incentive to make something happen. I’ll let the professionals work it out from there. First though, let me turn on this old rusty Stanton Signal (Chad Finn will be busting through that door any second now) and email Grant Brisbee that he’s gonna have to come up with another topic for Monday.

Photo by Jerome Miron – USA TODAY Sports

After months without David Price, months without the full rotation, months without the supposed strength of this Red Sox team healthy and on the field, David Price returned. He returned! Then Eduardo Rodriguez fell in the bullpen, gave up four homers to Baltimore, and went on the DL for, best case scenario, the next month. *sigh* So now we’re back to four healthy starters, and sadly, if Price were able to match what Rodriguez did before the four homer evening in Baltimore, a 2.77 ERA, for the rest of the season, well, that would be impressive. In other words, the best the Red Sox can hope for right now, realistically, feels like standing still. 

So let’s see what the Red Sox have in the Price-for-Rodriguez trade that sort of accidentally happened. Price has made two starts and thrown a combined 12 innings. That’s not much of a sample size to go on, but even with that said, it’s remarkable how similar what little Price has done this season is with what he did last season. His strikeout percentages are only separated by 0.4 percent, and his walk percentages by 1.4 percent (that’s not much in 12 innings). Even his average innings per start are separated by a bit over one third of an inning. Two starts into his 2017 season and his 2017 season looks a lot like his 2016 season.

No other AL contender can match that kind of one-two punch in their rotation, and to date, no other AL reliever has been remotely as good as Kimbrel.

Even though the Red Sox were hoping for the 2015 version of Price when they signed him, the 2016 version would probably suffice at this point. If Price can be an above average starter who eats innings for breakfast, lunch, dinner, brunch, brenner, and lunfast, given the composition of their rotation, the Red Sox would surely take that. But the promise of a 2015 David Price still looms, and that, combined with the 2017 Chris Sale, backed by the 2017 Craig Kimbrel, is enough to make Boston an AL favorite going forward. No other AL contender can match that kind of one-two punch in their rotation, and to date, no other AL reliever has been remotely as good as Kimbrel. That’s a heck of a good starting point when you’re trying to get to the World Series. 

But is the 2015 version of Price still in there? Maybe so. It’s so hard to extrapolate from just two starts, just 12 innings, without being irresponsible. For example, after Price gave up a billion runs in two rehab starts to a bunch of Triple-A hitters, did you think it was a good idea to bring him up to the majors? I didn’t. I might have even gone so far as to call it a bad idea, but my column didn’t fall on that day so I was spared that particular ignominy when Price came up and pitched very well in both his starts. 

However Price’s numbers so far don’t show dominance. The strikeouts are good, not great, the velocity was up a bit in his first start, but back to 2016 levels (i.e. down a bit from 2015) in his second start. That’s understandable given his first start was his first start back since his injury and he was probably pretty amped up. His home run problem from 2016 is, at least through two starts, still there, though looking at league-wide home run data it seems he’s not alone. 

David Price’s dominance never rested on velocity alone though. Price had that rare ability to not only throw hard but to spot his pitches where he wanted them. He spots his four seam fastball, then he fools the hitter with his cutter and changeup. One thing you can see by comparing his 2015 season to his 2016 season, is his fastball location changed. Price went from throwing the fastball over the middle of the plate to throwing it on the corners much more. When you look at the jump in slugging percentage from 2015 to 2016 that Price gave up on fastballs over the middle of the plate you can understand the reason for the change. For whatever reason, be it the very slight drop in velocity or something else, batters were teeing off on Price’s fastball over the plate and he simply couldn’t justify throwing it there anymore. 

At least in terms of strategy, that change seems to have continued into his 2017 season. Price is still trying to stay out of the middle of the plate. If his elbow allows him to continue to command his pitches, that’s fine, he can cope with the subtle effects of aging as well as the back-and-forth of the pitcher batter matchup from year to year, but if his elbow isn’t right and prevents him from commanding his fastball the way he needs to, then there’s a problem. Price can’t get away with throwing heat over the plate anymore, but to my eye, there were more than a few pitches that leaked out over the plate. I rewatched his second start which came against Baltimore and there were more than a few to pick from. In Manny Machado’s first at-bat, Price threw a fastball that was supposed to be low and inside. Look at the catcher’s glove and you can see where he’s calling for the pitch to go. Price tried to throw it there, but…

…instead it ended up middle middle. 

Fortunately Machado fouled it back, then struck out on a slightly elevated cutter. Then, in the very next at-bat, there was one to Mark Trumbo. Just like against Machado, this pitch was supposed to be low and away. Again, look at Vazquez’s glove.

But Price misses his location and the fastball ends up over the middle of plate. 

Fortunately again Trumbo fouled it back.

Pitches like that aren’t going to be home runs every time, and Price is but 12 innings into his season so there is undoubtedly some rust still to work off. However, if Price isn’t able to command his pitches like he has in the recent past, expecting him to be the co-ace of the Red Sox rotation heading into October might be asking too much. Fortunately though, we’re not there yet. Through two starts, David Price has both good velocity, his health, and he’s David Price. Those are all very good starts. It seems now we have a good idea of where this is all going, of where the Red Sox and Price stand. But let’s check the kids bedroom first, just in case.

Now we’ll get into a few slightly less declarative statements. The Red Sox have, depending on how you view it, one of the worst situations at third base in baseball this season. The exact level of awfulness is hard to pin down thanks to Pablo Sandoval. His batting line is bad (.213/.269/.377) and he’s only played in 17 of the team’s 46 games so far. He has made four errors in those 17 games and hasn’t shown much in the way of range, though his improved conditioning has made him at least look like he could be a major league third baseman, in theory. Considering he makes $17.6 million this year, and $18.6 million in both 2018 and 2019, the Red Sox are stuck with him. And when I say “stuck with him” I mean stuck with his salary; they’ll pay it even if they cut him.

Beyond Sandoval the Red Sox have employed Deven Marrero at third, who, home run last night not withstanding, isn’t a major league-caliber hitter. Only 40 games into the season, the Red Sox have used three other players at the position, for a total of five. All have been bad, though the levels of badness have varied depending on what you happen to be measuring at the time.

The point is though that the Red Sox have a vacancy at third base, as they have since before signing Sandoval three years ago. They also have their best prospect, a third baseman, raking in the minors. So the obvious solution is to bring up said prospect, wipe your hands, and call it a day. Except no.

There are several problems with this plan, starting with Sandoval himself. At age 30, with his history as an above-average player, and with his salary, Sandoval deserves another chance to be the starting third baseman. He may not be successful in his venture, but there are reasons to think he might be. His batted ball data looks shockingly good, way out of line with his lousy slash line. If he keeps hitting the ball as he did when he was healthy, he’ll have more success. As for his defense, many of the problems he presented were based on his throwing. That’s never been a particular problem before and is pretty easily attributed to rust. That’s not to dismiss the errors outright, but to say that there’s a fair chance this was a cluster of mistakes in what would be a larger sample of decency, as opposed to a warning sign of more bad defense to come.

Then there’s his contract, which essentially means the Red Sox are wedded to him for three more seasons. If Devers were 23 or 24 and destroying in Triple-A, that might be something you apologize to Sandoval for as you push him out the back door, but Devers is 20 and in Double-A. He might be ready for the majors, but there’s a more than reasonable chance that he isn’t. Sandoval’s contract is Sandoval’s contract. It’s not going anywhere, nobody is going to take it on, and unless the Red Sox are presented with a sure thing in Devers or someone else, there’s no sense in ridding themselves of someone in Sandoval who could solve their third base problem, even temporarily.

There’s another issue with Sandoval’s contract. Since the Red Sox are going to be paying him whether he’s on the roster or not, it makes it difficult to go out on the trade market and acquire anyone. There are some third basemen who aren’t making much money and are very good, but the Orioles aren’t likely to deal Manny Machado to the Red Sox ever, and especially not as long as they’re looking down at Boston in the standings. Similarly the Blue Jays, even if they decide to blow it up and deal Josh Donaldson, aren’t likely to want to help the Red Sox raise another World Series banner.

Since Sandoval will be paid by the Red Sox, and since the Red Sox don’t have anyone else who can stand in and provide certainty – defined as league-average production at the position – they’re better off sticking with Sandoval. It’s hardly an ideal situation, but it’s the one Dave Dombrowski and company have set themselves up for by depending on a player coming off a lost season that followed a season featuring utter offensive and defensive ineptitude. The Red Sox have hitched their horse to Sandoval’s wagon, for better or worse.

Okay, Matt, you might say, but what about Devers? If they’re going to pay Sandoval, fine, they’ve made that bed and can’t go back, but just bring Devers up and the problem is fixed. Well, maybe and no. Devers might be able to hit major league pitching, maybe. But we don’t know that. Dombrowski has a history of bringing hitters up from Double-A and sometimes they can handle it, like Andrew Benintendi, and sometimes they can’t, like Yoan Moncada, or Nick Castellanos. There’s a danger to it, as it’s possible to do serious damage to the psyche of prospect who might not be ready to face major league pitching.

Devers might be able to handle it, but he might not, and looking where the Red Sox are with respect to third base, they need him to be able to handle it when he does get the call. That might be later this year, after Sandoval gets another shot to show he can be some smaller version of the guy the Red Sox gave $90 million to, or it might be next season, or even the one beyond that (hard to see them waiting that long though).

In the end, the Red Sox have what appears to be a gem on their hands with Devers, and that gem looks like it’ll fit perfectly into the one spot in the Red Sox lineup that has plagued them for years. Maybe Devers can be the short-term solution. Maybe Sandoval can. Maybe they need to explore the trade market for short term solutions. The one declarative sentence we can make is this: Rafael Devers is the future. What we don’t know is when that future begins. Sandoval is set to come back from the DL sometime in about a week. If you’re looking for declarative sentences on this topic, that’ll be your first clue.

Photo by Jonathan Dyer – USA TODAY Sports

Sure, the Red Sox still look like a team still struggling to employ a consistent offense, but hey, at least they doubled their home run total to a whopping eight dingers, right? A 100 percent increase in round-trippers can’t be bad. And sure, the pitching was putrid at times, but they’ve still got Chris Sale, who pitches again on Wednesday! Silver linings.

All of those things, both good and bad, will unfortunately take a backseat to Manny Machado’s slide and the aftermath. If you haven’t seen it yet – and if you’re reading this, you probably have, so enjoy the refresher – here it is.

In real time, it doesn’t look like much. But as the replay showed, a substantial part of Machado’s cleat landed right on Dustin Pedroia’s calf. I don’t have to describe to you how badly getting cleated hurts. Pedroia had to leave the game, and the Red Sox weren’t pleased whatsoever. Even Joe Kelly was already yelling at Machado by the time Pedroia hit the deck. They had a right to be mad! Losing the heart of your team like that sucks, no matter the situation. It’s a terrible moment for everyone involved. For what it’s worth, Machado later acted and seemed genuinely sorry for the incident, but as you can expect, that didn’t really matter to the Red Sox. No amount of guilt will make him heal faster.

So the animosity lingered. After that game on the 21st, the Red Sox took their time getting back at the Orioles, and the feud peaked once more on Sunday, thanks to Matt Barnes.

Matt Barnes was ejected, Machado doubled on the very next pitch (from Joe Kelly), and no one felt better. While the Red Sox were right to be mad on Friday night, they were completely in the wrong with their actions on Sunday afternoon.

Since this is all stemming from the slide, let’s look at that first. Can you say with complete certainty that Machado was sliding with ill intent towards Pedroia? No, no you can’t. But you can say that the slide was reckless and stupid. Sliding late with your cleat that high is dangerous, and that invokes the Utley Rule (which Pedroia later admitted he didn’t care for).

What added instant fuel onto this fire is the reputation Machado has garnered. Machado is a fantastic baseball player, don’t get me wrong, but the incidents he’s been a part of have been very notable. Here’s a clip from 2014 of him getting pissed off at Josh Donaldson for, well, something, I guess. And then there’s the incredibly stupid thing he did the next day, after Fernando Abad threw way too far inside. Last year, after Yordano Ventura threw some chin music in one plate appearance, Machado charged the mound after Ventura plunked him. Machado is an expressive guy, and he can be a hard player to like if you’re not an Orioles fan, especially if your team sees him as much as any team in the AL East does.

Mix together a very dumb slide, one easy-to-dislike player, and a clubhouse full of angry guys, and what do you get? A distasteful retaliation cocktail. The Red Sox’s anger materialized in Matt Barnes going headhunting, because baseball feuds absolutely have to be settled with throwing at people’s heads. Barnes needlessly escalated it when you could’ve just wrote it off as a very unfortunate accident and moved on. What Barnes and John Farrell said afterwards doesn’t really match up with what happened, since Christian Vazquez’s glove was on the other side of the plate from Machado:

Yeah. That’s not letting the pitch get away from you, that’s aiming for the batter. Barnes won’t ever admit it, and Farrell was “protecting” his guy. Whatever.

You’d think everyone in the organization – and the sport in general – would know not to headhunt, since taking a fastball to the cheekbone was what completely derailed Tony Conigliaro’s exciting, promising career 50 years ago. Hell, look at what happened to Giancarlo Stanton, and to Jason Heyward. The effects of getting nailed in the face by a baseball going roughly 90 mph cannot be understated. And yet players still do it. “But,” say The Unwritten Rules, “you must have revenge on the team whose player inadvertently hurt yours! For honor!” And that’s where everything goes bad.

I’m not going to just spout idioms, because you know them all when it comes to this. You know the second part to “An eye for an eye”. This retaliation fetish that baseball has needs to end. Machado isn’t the evil, Pedroia-hunting entity you think he is, and Matt Barnes isn’t a hero for throwing a fastball at him. To Pedroia’s credit, he was the only one to act like an adult in all of this, and even told Machado that he wasn’t a fan of Barnes’ actions:

Fascinating exchange captured by MASN between Machado and Pedroia. Dustin clearly saying "It wasn't me. I know that and you know that." pic.twitter.com/oqdt827ER9

— Dave Tucker (@TestudoDave) April 23, 2017

The two made up the night of the slide, but that obviously didn’t matter, so Pedroia had to publicly call out a teammate. He’s very much in the right to do so, since, y’know, he’s the guy that actually got injured by Machado in the first place. If he didn’t want retaliation, then why the hell did Barnes attempt it?

Look, this feud, spat, whatever you want to call it – it’s incredibly idiotic. Sparked by a dumb, bad slide and carried on by dumb people with bad intentions. Throwing at people is never okay in any circumstance, and I cannot believe we still have to keep saying that, but here we are, seeing garbage like this in 2017. Barnes should be suspended for this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if MLB makes an example of him and brings down a hefty punishment. There’s no place for something like that in this sport.

The unwritten rules are bullshit. Stop following them, stop intentionally hurting others, and play some damn baseball.

Photo by Mitch Stringer – USA TODAY Sports

Division Winners

Postseason

#hardware

• Four teams are unanimous picks for their division, with just the two-man carousel in the NL East and the AL West party getting different results.
• Of the Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers, one’s gotta go. With our staff, it’s usually the Mariners. Sorry, Seattle.
• Devereaux says the AL MVP award should be named after Trout from now on, and I can’t disagree.
• He also said the NL Cy Young should just be named after Kershaw as well. See above reaction.
• Slavin’s Margot pick for NL ROY is, as he tells it, “the first dose of retribution for Trader Dave”. That one made me laugh.

Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom of the third also held the bottom play of the game. Three batters before Victorino doubled for the top play, David Ortiz came to the plate with runners on 2^nd and 3^rd and only 1 out. Ortiz swung at Chen’s first offering, an 84 mph slider down and away from him, popping out to Machado in foul territory (WPA: – .071). After this play it really seemed as though Chen was going to slip out of trouble.

Key Moment: It was a dreary mid-April day in New England for yesterday’s game. Rain started in the third and persisted until the umpires finally delayed the game after the top of the 7^th. In the bottom of the 6^th the Red Sox more or less put the game away scoring two runs to push their lead to 7-1, the eventual final score. With two outs and Ryan Hanigan on first base, Dustin Pedroia doubled down the left-field line. Hanigan came all the way around to score, helped by some great base coaching by Brian Butterfield. Watch Butterfield get right on the foul line to get a better view of the play in the left field corner.

After Pedroia’s double the Orioles intentionally walked Ortiz to get to Allen Craig, who was in the game as a replacement for Hanley Ramirez. Craig knocked a 2-2 slider into center field to score Pedroia. These add-on runs were likely helpful in pushing the eventual decision to call the game early. I suspect both teams were fine with not having to come back out after ~two hours and use more of their pitchers, further delaying their travel to Tampa Bay and Toronto, respectively.

Trend to Watch: Pablo Sandoval had the day off yesterday, with John Farrell slotting Brock Holt into the lineup at third base. Much has been made about Sandoval’s difficulties when hitting right-handed (against left-handed pitchers). In 2014, Sandoval he had a .359 wOBA as left-handed against right-handed pitchers, but only a .247 wOBA as right-handed against left-handed pitchers. That is a huge split. His performance this season has not done much to assuage concerns, as he has yet to reach base in his 13 PA when batting right-handed. Sandoval has been struggling to hit for power (ISO: .022, 0 HR), so yesterday may have just been Farrell getting a day of rest for Sandoval. But with Wei-Yin Chen (a lefty) on the mound for the Orioles there is a decent chance that it was a strategic move by Farrell.

It is difficult to say if Sandoval should abandon switch-hitting. He does not have a major league plate appearance against a left-handed pitcher as a left-handed batter. We simply do not know if his performance lefty-on-lefty will be any better than it has been righty-on-lefty. And really, it seems fairly safe to assume that it would not be. So for now, the best approach may be to just use some of the games when opponents have a lefty starter as rest days for Sandoval, as Farrell did yesterday.

Coming next: The Red Sox head to Tampa Bay to start a 3-game set with the Rays before heading to Baltimore for another series with the Orioles. There’s a lot of American League East action coming up, as the Red Sox next 18 games are against the Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays or Yankees. Against Tampa Bay, the Sox will send Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, and Clay Buchholz to the mound to start the games. The Rays counter with Chris Archer, Nathan Karns, and Jake Odorizzi. Archer (1.37 ERA, 3.11 FIP) and Odorizzi (1.74 ERA, 2.07 FIP) have been the Rays best starters thus far; they represent another test for the Sox batters. The AL East projects to be a tight division this year, so getting a jump on these foes early in the season with wins in the next stretch of inter-division games should help keep the Red Sox in good standing.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com