It is 2015, and every Major League Baseball trade must have a clear WINNER and LOSER to satiate Baseball Twitter’s need for first takes. Don’t worry about what either team needs. Just ask, what did Team A give up? What did Team B send in return? Did Team A give up more than Team B? Wow, Team A must be run by idiots.

Viewed through this lens, the Red Sox were absolutely hoodwinked by the Padres last night. They gave up two–two!–top-100 prospect types and two more lottery tickets for a relief pitcher. This is exactly what we were worried about when ol’ Star-Loving Dave Dombrowski took the reigns. Theo Epstein never would’ve made this deal. One imagines Ben Cherington becoming physically ill at the thought of this deal. There is indeed a new sheriff in Boston.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus.

Photo by Matt Kartozian/USA Today Sports Images

When your season is a 162-game grind, having this kind of depth is hugely important. Injuries are going to happen and players are going to underperform for long stretches, giving you needs that you didn’t anticipate in February and March. As such, it’s important to complement your major-league depth with plenty of reinforcements on the farm. We all know about how highly regarded this Boston farm system is, but that’s in terms of overall talent. Do they have the proper depth in the upper levels to help out the big-league squad at any position where a need may pop up?

Catcher

We’ll start behind the plate, because that’s usually where people start this kind of thing and I have a crippling inability to think for myself. It’s here where the Red Sox possess an impressive amount of depth that will be the envy of the league barring any sort of trade. Boston wasn’t one of the best teams in the league here last year, but they’ll likely be returning a Blake Swihart/Ryan Hanigan duo that looked much better down the stretch. On top of that, they’ll also have Christian Vazquez back from his Tommy John rehab. The defensive wizard will probably work the rust off in Triple-A, but he’ll be ready whenever an injury occurs and gives the Red Sox maybe the best third catcher in the league. Sandy Leon accepted his assignment to Pawtucket after the season, giving them even more depth behind the plate. This will not be a worry this winter.

Infield

As I mentioned before, the Red Sox have two perfect backup infielders in Holt and Shaw, as they can both handle multiple positions and have shown an ability to thrive in an everyday role. However, if/when they need to step into the starting lineup, that will open up empty bench spots. In Pawtucket, they look like they’ll have some middle infield options, but the corner infield could be more iffy. Starting up the middle, Deven Marrero is the obvious guy to look to. He’s a plus defender and came up for the first time in 2015. There’s still plenty to worry about with his bat, but as a third option coming from Triple-A he works just fine. However, Marrero is also a possible trade candidate, which could leave a hole. Luckily, Boston acquired Marco Hernandez as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal a couple years ago, and he looks like a future utility player. While he doesn’t possess the same kind of glove as Marrero, he plays good defense at both second base and shortstop. Hernandez has also showed off solid bat-to-ball skills in the minors and should see some MLB time in 2016.

On the corners, things are a little less certain, as Boston’s depth depends on some reclamation projects. Chief among them in Allen Craig, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster once again. The only way he’ll see the majors again is if he lights the International League on fire over the first month or two of the season. Garin Cecchini never reached the heights of Craig, but he’s also fallen pretty far from his top prospect days, and 2016 could be his last chance to earn a permanent spot on a major-league roster. Finally, Sean Coyle was one of the dark horses to play a role on the 2015 team, but injuries and underperformance in the minors nixed that idea. It doesn’t look likely that any of these players will bounce all the way back in 2016, but there is some hope here that at least one can get back to (or finally reach) a respectable level.

Outfield

I alluded to this above, but this is the weakest area on the roster in terms of depth. Their current starting trio is full of youth and potential, but there’s not a lot of that in Pawtucket right now. On Opening Day, the only player who will be ready to step right in from Triple-A appears to be Bryce Brentz. That says about all you need to hear about the situation. Manuel Margot spent a good portion of last year in Double-A and should see Pawtucket at some point in 2016, but he’s not a viable depth option until at least July. That’s if he even stays with the organization. Expect the Red Sox to dip their toes into the minor-league free agent pool to find some extra outfield depth.

Rotation

This is the antithesis of the outfield, as Pawtucket’s rotation should be filled with viable rotation depth for the majors. There’s a chance that Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Steven Wright all start the year in that rotation, and they are likely to be three of the top four backup starting pitchers, along with Joe Kelly. You can never have enough starting pitching, of course, and they could look for some more depth to add to this group, but it’s not a dire need at this moment if they add some quality to the top.

Bullpen

Like the rotation, the Red Sox should have plenty of relief arms handy in the Pawtucket bullpen. We saw the same pattern in 2015, as there were plenty of options to call upon when a fresh arm was needed. Of course, the issue was that none of those arms were particularly good. They’ll likely be looking at a similar cast of faces in 2016, at least to start the year. Heath Hembree, Jonathan Aro and Edwin Escobar will lead the way, although Pat Light and Jorge Marban should be able to provide some depth as well. Later in the year, Brandon Workman could be back in the mix and guys like Madison Younginer and Williams Jerez could have taken an unexpected step forward. Bullpen depth changes and evolves quickly and often, but as of right now there is some solid depth to pick from in case of injury.

★★★

The Red Sox are going to be focusing on the David Prices of the world this winter, but every year we see the best teams in the league rely on strong depth. Injuries happen to every ball club, and players who start the year in the minors have to play unexpectedly large roles in the middle of the season. Boston appears to be prepared for this scenario at most positions, with corner infield potentially being an issue and the outfield looking particularly shallow. While most of your attention can be paid to the big names, don’t forget about the depth pieces that get brought in to supplement the fringes of the roster.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Soon after the acquisition went down, Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com took a look at Dombrowski’s recent trade history dating back to his start with the Tigers.  He dispelled most notions that Dombrowski was a reckless trader while also pointing out that while he was very willing to move prospects for elite MLB talent, he was correct nearly 100% of the time.

Dombrowski’s moves over the remainder of the year, from promoting Mike Hazen to General Manager to keeping the current Red Sox coaching staff, leads me to believe he is anything but the maniac some suggested, but rather a very calculated and astute talent evaluator.  The Red Sox have what is almost universally considered a top-five farm system, with ESPN’s Keith Law ranking it first in his mid-season ranks. Pre-season, we at Baseball Prospectus had it ranked sixth.

Below, I broke down the top ten Red Sox prospects and sorted them into tiers as to how much it would hurt the organization to trade them.  All things were considered – age, position, team need, floor, ceiling, and proximity.  Here is a blueprint for Dombrowski to look at when he is trying to fix the problems that may hold back your 2016 Red Sox.

Tier One: Untouchables

Yoan Moncada: 2B, Greenville Drive – A

It looks like Ben Cherington’s $63 million gamble on the young Cuban phenom has already paid dividends.  In their end-of-season rankings, Baseball America ranked Moncada as the number one prospect in the South Atlantic League coming off a season where he slashed .278/.380/.438 over 81 games.  There was a whole lot of rust at first, which was not surprising since he took nearly an entire year off from baseball.  When he got going, Moncada was electric adding 8 HR, 19 2B and 49 SB while improving his previously erratic defense.

The Red Sox seem very set at second base with Pedroia locked in through 2021, but nothing is yet set at third base.  Dombrowski will explore the trade market for the disappointing Pablo Sandoval this off-season and should a move happen a position switch for Moncada is not out of the question.  Moncada certainly has excellent power projection and the athleticism needed to make the move and develop into a well above average option at the hot corner.  If no move is made, his athleticism leaves him plenty of flexibility to move around the diamond wherever the team needs him.

Anderson Espinoza: SP, Greenville Drive – A

No one in the organization saw their value explode more than this former July 2 signee from Venezuela.  As a 17-year-old this young right-handed starter dominated both the DSL and GCL culminating in the nearly unprecedented move all the way up to A-ball, making him 13 months younger than the next youngest player.  He posted a 1.23 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while striking out 65 guys over just 58 IP between all three levels while showing very advanced pitchability.

The Red Sox need pitching and they need it badly, and with the cost of aces being at an all-time high trading a player that could develop into one is foolish.  After Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias make it to the big leagues next year, it would not surprise me at all to find Espinoza on the short-list of pitching prospects with the highest upsides in the minors. Kids like this simply do not come around often so unless you are offering a current ace in his prime, this man cannot be in any package.

Tier Two: Mostly Untouchables

Rafael Devers: 3B, Greenville Drive – A

The Sox are clearly doing something right with their Dominican signings lately, as Devers has blossomed into an elite talent and one of the better offensive prospects in all of baseball.  He was extremely young last year, playing the full season in Greenville at just 18.  Offense is his calling card, and this young left-handed bat slashed a robust .288/.329/.443 while four years younger than the average prospect at this level.

Devers isn’t perfect. His home run power has yet to fully develop, and he seems likely to shift across the diamond to first base.  All these things aside, the thought of giving up on a player like this gives me fever dreams of Anthony Rizzo, something I’d rather not repeat.  Giving him up would be terrible and the return would have to be high, however, it is not unthinkable since power comes more cheaply at first base than any other position.

Andrew Benintendi: CF, Greenville Drive – A

Drafted seventh overall out of Arkansas this past year, Benintendi had about as good a 2015 season as he could have hoped for.  After winning the Dick Howser award for best college baseball player of the year he signed with the Sox and went on to dominate short-season ball in Lowell.  After taking care of business there, he ended up with a promotion to Greenville where he dominated even more.

This left-handed bat has played all of his games at CF but seems like he could have ample power to play a corner position.  He walked more than he struck out while also hitting 11 home runs in just 54 games.  The power is real, and while I don’t like to make comps to major league hitters, he looks a lot like a future big leaguer in the Alex Gordon mold.  Trading players like this is tough to swallow, especially considering the relative uncertainty surrounding Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Tier Three: This Is Going to Hurt

Manuel Margot: CF, Portland Sea Dogs – AA

Mookie Betts is the center fielder of the present and the future for the Sox, and nothing Margot does is ever going to change that reality.  That alone makes him expendable.  Look, Margot is a great player ranking nearly universally in all top-25 prospect rankings, but he is redundant on this roster.  This is exactly the type of player who could both fetch a good return and not come back to bite the Sox in the future.

Trading a player with elite contact ability, great speed, and surprising pop for his position is never an easy thing to do, but if it can improve the team elsewhere I am all for it.  As a 21-year-old at AA this year his K rate finally climbed above double digits to 12.8%.  Bat-to-ball ability like this is rare and you can bet he will be highly coveted.  After more than holding his own at AA by slashing .271/.326/.419 there will be no shortage of interest in Margot around baseball should he become available.

Javier Guerra: SS, Greenville Drive – A

Without a doubt the biggest breakout in the Red Sox system among position players this past year was the 20-Year-old Panamanian, Guerra.  Playing very solid defense at shortstop for his first two years in the minors, Guerra looked as if power was not going to be part of his game.  He only totaled two home runs in 2013 and 2014, but behind the scenes the power was building.  Over the past three years, his ISO has climbed from .043 to .139 before busting out last year at .171!  He hit 15 home runs last year against higher level pitching without having to sell out his average.

The reason Guerra is so tradable is that we have Xander Bogaerts.  Not sure if you all have heard of him yet, but the guy is pretty good, and with his improved defense he is at no risk to move off of the position.  Many teams across the league could benefit from bringing Guerra in and the price will not be cheap to do so.

Tier Four: We Probably Won’t Regret This

Sam Travis: 1B, Portland Sea Dogs – AA

Travis enjoyed a fantastic 2015 between two-levels at the age of 22, and he will also be the lone top-10 Red Sox prospect on the Scottsdale Scorpions roster this fall.  Selected in the second round of the 2014 draft, Travis has a whole lot of polish compared to similarly aged prospects.  The less famous of the recent draftees out of Indiana thanks to Kyle Schwarber, Travis is pretty good- he has shown exceptional plate discipline and an ability to make consistent strong contact.  The power has yet to come though, as the first baseman only hit nine home runs this past season, but he had 32 doubles and an excellent .382 OBP.  It would stink to lose him in a deal but provided the Sox keep Devers it’s something they can live with.

Michael Kopech: SP, Greenville Drive – A

Most who follow the minor leagues closely won’t remember Kopechs’s 2015 season for his dominance but rather his 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs.  Kopech was suspended for Oxilofrine, which according to my brief research is an amphetamine that improves focus and oxygenation of the blood.  Essentially it gives you more focus and more endurance.  Amphetamines have had their place in the game for far too long and it was disappointing to see such a promising young guy make that mistake.

Suspension aside we have to look at the 19-year-old Texan for what he is: a damn good baseball player.  Kopech is a 6’3” right-hander with a fastball that works in the mid 90’s, he complements that pitch with a nasty slider.  Before the suspension he made huge strides in limiting his walks while striking out 70 batters in just 65 IP.  He may end up a reliever long-term but even if he doesn’t cut it as a starter he could be elite out of the pen.

Brian Johnson: SP, Pawtucket Red Sox – AAA

The lone player on this list who is truly on the cusp of making it to the majors is Johnson.  Before going down with the sore shoulder, which will reportedly not require surgery, Johnson dominated in 96 IP with a 2.53 ERA.  Provided he is healthy Johnson could slot into a rotation as a respectable fourth or fifth starter and succeed due to his elite command. Given the depth the Red Sox have in these possible back-end starters Johnson could be a very popular name when Dombrowski is seeking trading partners.  Lefty starters are always in demand, and with such a high floor Johnson will certainly garner interest.

Henry Owens: SP,  Boston Red Sox

I won’t go into detail describing what Owens can do because most of you who have taken the time to read this article are very familiar with his strengths and weaknesses.  He looked great at times this year, but when his breaking pitches don’t work and his command gets loose he can get beat up in a hurry.  With Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz and the inevitable ace penciled into the lineup, the Red Sox may feel Owens is expendable.  He may even be the more likely guy to be traded should the Sox have to choose between Owens and Johnson due to his value being higher right now.  If it happens it will be a shame for him to go but his ceiling really isn’t higher than a third starter.

Final Word

No matter what ends up happening in the off-season, one thing we can bank on is that at least some of the above names will not be with the Red Sox organization in 2016.  Hopefully Dombrowski can keep the best core pieces while looking to contend next year.  The pieces are there for one good off-season to remedy the lion’s share of issues with the MLB roster, and Dombrowski has a track record that suggests he’ll be able to right the ship.

All photos by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Going Deep

Hanley Ramirez’s adjustment to left field took a rocky turn over the weekend as he made a trio of well-documented misplays on fly balls at Fenway Park. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe highlighted these struggles after Saturday’s 4-1 loss to the Orioles when Ramirez first let a ball down the line fall for a double, then an inning later dropped a fly ball at the wall that hit the heel of his glove and fell out for a single. Ramirez misjudged another fly ball to left in Sunday’s game, but, as Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald writes, he’s used his bat to try to overshadow his fielding troubles. Ramirez hit a three-run home run in the first inning Sunday, giving him five homers and 12 RBI for the season. Despite the difficult transition to left field, Ramirez’s .369 wOBA and .313 ISO have been positives early on.

The mania of Mookie Betts’ home opening showcase has seemingly worn off as the center fielder struggled at the plate for the rest of the Sox’ homestand. Betts dropped his TAv to .244 with just five hits in 25 at-bats over the stretch. WEEI.com’s Mike Petraglia writes about Betts, who had a hit, steal and scored twice, finding life again in Monday’s rain-shortened win over the Orioles. Betts’ .250/.353/.244 slash line and 1.7 VORP may be underwhelming, but Sox manager John Farrell said his offensive struggles had nothing to with being left out of the lineup on Saturday.

Quick Hits

Brian MacPherson of Tthe Providence Journal looks at Brock Holt’s regular role in the Sox lineup despite not technically being an everyday player. Holt’s played in eight of the team’s 13 games this season, seeing time at second base, third base, shortstop and center field. He’s picked up where he left off last season as a reliable utility player and has swung the bat well enough (.364 TAv) to hit near the top offill any spot in the order.

The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier gave Red Sox fans even more reason to be excited about the team’s farm system. Speier writes that 20-year-old center fielder Manuel Margot is creating a buzz in Single A Salem, drawing comparisons to a young Carlos Beltran from manager Carlos Febles. Febles told Speier he sees Margot, who’s hitting .361/.378/.639 through nine games in High-A ball this season, as a Major League-ready defensive center fielder with the potential to be a 15-20 home run hitter.

Manuel Margot is creating a buzz in Single A Salem, drawing comparisons to a young Carlos Beltran.

No player had a more physically taxing series last weekend than Ryan Hanigan. The Red Sox catcher, as Tthe Boston Globe’s Michael Whitmer points out, took a number of bruising foul tips off his body throughout the last three games of the series. Hanigan also added a hit and two runs in the Sox’ 7-1 win over the Orioles on Monday. As a former Andover High School baseball player who grew up a Red Sox fan, Hanigan, who was forced into the starting catcher’s role with Christian Vazquez requiring season-ending Tommy John surgery, also talked about his appreciation for Patriots Day in Boston.

It doesn’t take much to upset David Ortiz. Jim Palmer learned that the hard way when Ortiz fired back at Palmer for the Hall of Famer’s criticisms of Ortiz following his ejection from Sunday’s game for arguing a strike call in the fifth inning. Palmer clarified his comments in a radio interview with WEEI on Tuesday.

Three Good Game Stories

The Providence Journal’s Brian MacPherson explains how Mike Napoli’s prowess on the base paths contributed to the Red Sox’ walkoff win over the Orioles Friday night.

Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe focused his story from the Sox’ loss to the Orioles Saturday on Clay Buchholz’s up-and-down start. After the game, Buck Showalter and Chris Tillman ripped Buchholz for his slow pace on the mound.

WEEI.com’s Ryan Hannable writes about Justin Masterson’s bounce-back start on Monday, and how it’s the first step toward righting the Sox’ troublesome starting rotation.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com