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	<title>Boston &#187; Marcus Walden</title>
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		<title>The Bullpen Isn&#8217;t A Disaster Yet</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/17/the-bullpen-isnt-a-disaster-yet/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/17/the-bullpen-isnt-a-disaster-yet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 May 2018 13:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Cam Ellis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bobby Poyner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carson Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Hembree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Walden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Barnes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=39454</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don't lose your mind over one pitcher.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently, Red Sox relief pitcher Carson Smith hurt his arm in a potentially-serious way amidst a temper tantrum. This is important for a few reasons &#8212; the first being that it&#8217;s extremely important that each team has at least one player who gets hurt while either celebrating/being frustrated. Whether it&#8217;s Kendrys Morales breaking his leg after hitting a game-winning grand slam, or Joel Zumaya straining his forearm playing Guitar Hero, baseball will forever and always be the land of dumb injuries. Carson Smith&#8217;s contribution, while significantly less humorous, is nonetheless important.</p>
<p>On a more serious note, Smith&#8217;s injury is just the latest in a litany of them for the team&#8217;s bullpen. Tyler Thornburg hasn&#8217;t made an appearance this season and is currently being shut down for a few days. Hector Velazquez was put on the 10-day DL recently. Bobby Poyner&#8217;s spent some time there, too.</p>
<p>Naturally, news of Smith&#8217;s DL stint created an all-too-familiar reaction:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EvanDrellich</a>: No use in pretending Red Sox bullpen is fine <a href="https://t.co/EoVqYcx8aH">https://t.co/EoVqYcx8aH</a></p>
<p>&mdash; NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSBoston) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCSBoston/status/996533427955535872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 15, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The trade deadline is 76 days away. The Red Sox will certainly be in the market for bullpen help. </p>
<p>If you&#39;re Dave Dombrowski, why wait? <a href="https://t.co/M4umftqGTm">https://t.co/M4umftqGTm</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Chris Mason (@ByChrisMason) <a href="https://twitter.com/ByChrisMason/status/996548821994889216?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 16, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Red Sox NEED to renovate their bullpen. Exceptions, Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel. Everyone else needs to go.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ozzy Torres (@ozzyunchained) <a href="https://twitter.com/ozzyunchained/status/996510858946621440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 15, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>I get it. There are unquestionably deeper bullpens in baseball than that of the Red Sox. But before we go smash the panic button, a few things to consider:</p>
<ul>
<li>The Red Sox bullpen has pitched 147.2 innings this season, which is good for 19th in baseball. You can choose to view this as a bullpen that&#8217;s still relatively unproven or you can choose to view this as a bullpen that doesn&#8217;t necessarily need to be relied on as heavily as others, thanks in part to a talented starting rotation. It&#8217;s not the strongest point, but that&#8217;s why I listed it first.</li>
<li>Before Wednesday&#8217;s game, the top four relievers this year, based on FIP, have been Marcus Walden, Joe Kelly, Craig Kimbrel and Heath Hembree. The latter three are not only healthy but playing a prominent role in the bullpen; outside of Matt Barnes, no pitcher has thrown more innings than the Kelly/Kimbrel/Hembree trio.</li>
<li>The Red Sox bullpen has the seventh-best FIP in baseball. Their 8.6 percent walk rate is sixth-best in the league, and their 26.3 percent strikeout rate is fifth-best. Teams aren&#8217;t hitting the ball hard against them (31.3 hard-hit percentage &#8212; seventh-best in MLB), and they&#8217;re doing an average job keeping the ball in the park (11.7 HR/FB percentage &#8212; 15th in MLB). And people say this isn&#8217;t a quality bullpen?</li>
<li>Losing Carson Smith for an extended period of time again would be a colossal bummer. With that said, Smith&#8217;s season&#8230; hasn&#8217;t been all that impressive so far. His strikeout rate hasn&#8217;t quite bounced back yet and he was walking over one more batter per game. There&#8217;s been a ton of hard contact this year, too. He hasn&#8217;t been bad, per se, but the Red Sox aren&#8217;t in danger of losing their best relief pitcher if he goes down for a while.</li>
<li>Joe Kelly is <strong><em>good</em></strong> this year. <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/08/joe-kelly-learned-to-finish/">We&#8217;ve talked about this recently,</a> but it&#8217;s worth repeating because hell yeah Joe Kelly is good this year. This could easily open up Joe Kelly: Set-Up Man, which is not great for my nailbeds, but those are of little importance to you and quite frankly, not that important to me either, in a gross kind of way.</li>
<li>This opens the window for Bobby Poyner, which is an intriguing silver lining. <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/5/8/17330480/the-ballad-of-bobby-poyner">Over The Monster had a nice piece on Poyner the other day</a>, and the addition of another dominant lefty reliever is always a fun wrinkle. In the best case scenario, Poyner settles in as a late-inning lefty, giving the team 100 percent more late-inning lefty options than they had before his promotion.</li>
</ul>
<p>Let me be clear: the Red Sox could absolutely still use some bullpen help &#8211; but they could use bullpen help in the way that every team in baseball could always use more bullpen help. Losing an average-or-barely-above-average reliever is never <em>good</em><em>, </em>but Smith wasn&#8217;t the backbone of the Red Sox&#8217; relief pitching. Telling Red Sox fans not to panic is more often than not an exercise in futility, but please, Red Sox fans, don&#8217;t panic about this. Panic about Andrew Benintendi, instead!</p>
<p><em>Header photo by Kim Klement &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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