After months without David Price, months without the full rotation, months without the supposed strength of this Red Sox team healthy and on the field, David Price returned. He returned! Then Eduardo Rodriguez fell in the bullpen, gave up four homers to Baltimore, and went on the DL for, best case scenario, the next month. *sigh* So now we’re back to four healthy starters, and sadly, if Price were able to match what Rodriguez did before the four homer evening in Baltimore, a 2.77 ERA, for the rest of the season, well, that would be impressive. In other words, the best the Red Sox can hope for right now, realistically, feels like standing still. 

So let’s see what the Red Sox have in the Price-for-Rodriguez trade that sort of accidentally happened. Price has made two starts and thrown a combined 12 innings. That’s not much of a sample size to go on, but even with that said, it’s remarkable how similar what little Price has done this season is with what he did last season. His strikeout percentages are only separated by 0.4 percent, and his walk percentages by 1.4 percent (that’s not much in 12 innings). Even his average innings per start are separated by a bit over one third of an inning. Two starts into his 2017 season and his 2017 season looks a lot like his 2016 season.

No other AL contender can match that kind of one-two punch in their rotation, and to date, no other AL reliever has been remotely as good as Kimbrel.

Even though the Red Sox were hoping for the 2015 version of Price when they signed him, the 2016 version would probably suffice at this point. If Price can be an above average starter who eats innings for breakfast, lunch, dinner, brunch, brenner, and lunfast, given the composition of their rotation, the Red Sox would surely take that. But the promise of a 2015 David Price still looms, and that, combined with the 2017 Chris Sale, backed by the 2017 Craig Kimbrel, is enough to make Boston an AL favorite going forward. No other AL contender can match that kind of one-two punch in their rotation, and to date, no other AL reliever has been remotely as good as Kimbrel. That’s a heck of a good starting point when you’re trying to get to the World Series. 

But is the 2015 version of Price still in there? Maybe so. It’s so hard to extrapolate from just two starts, just 12 innings, without being irresponsible. For example, after Price gave up a billion runs in two rehab starts to a bunch of Triple-A hitters, did you think it was a good idea to bring him up to the majors? I didn’t. I might have even gone so far as to call it a bad idea, but my column didn’t fall on that day so I was spared that particular ignominy when Price came up and pitched very well in both his starts. 

However Price’s numbers so far don’t show dominance. The strikeouts are good, not great, the velocity was up a bit in his first start, but back to 2016 levels (i.e. down a bit from 2015) in his second start. That’s understandable given his first start was his first start back since his injury and he was probably pretty amped up. His home run problem from 2016 is, at least through two starts, still there, though looking at league-wide home run data it seems he’s not alone. 

David Price’s dominance never rested on velocity alone though. Price had that rare ability to not only throw hard but to spot his pitches where he wanted them. He spots his four seam fastball, then he fools the hitter with his cutter and changeup. One thing you can see by comparing his 2015 season to his 2016 season, is his fastball location changed. Price went from throwing the fastball over the middle of the plate to throwing it on the corners much more. When you look at the jump in slugging percentage from 2015 to 2016 that Price gave up on fastballs over the middle of the plate you can understand the reason for the change. For whatever reason, be it the very slight drop in velocity or something else, batters were teeing off on Price’s fastball over the plate and he simply couldn’t justify throwing it there anymore. 

At least in terms of strategy, that change seems to have continued into his 2017 season. Price is still trying to stay out of the middle of the plate. If his elbow allows him to continue to command his pitches, that’s fine, he can cope with the subtle effects of aging as well as the back-and-forth of the pitcher batter matchup from year to year, but if his elbow isn’t right and prevents him from commanding his fastball the way he needs to, then there’s a problem. Price can’t get away with throwing heat over the plate anymore, but to my eye, there were more than a few pitches that leaked out over the plate. I rewatched his second start which came against Baltimore and there were more than a few to pick from. In Manny Machado’s first at-bat, Price threw a fastball that was supposed to be low and inside. Look at the catcher’s glove and you can see where he’s calling for the pitch to go. Price tried to throw it there, but…

…instead it ended up middle middle. 

Fortunately Machado fouled it back, then struck out on a slightly elevated cutter. Then, in the very next at-bat, there was one to Mark Trumbo. Just like against Machado, this pitch was supposed to be low and away. Again, look at Vazquez’s glove.

But Price misses his location and the fastball ends up over the middle of plate. 

Fortunately again Trumbo fouled it back.

Pitches like that aren’t going to be home runs every time, and Price is but 12 innings into his season so there is undoubtedly some rust still to work off. However, if Price isn’t able to command his pitches like he has in the recent past, expecting him to be the co-ace of the Red Sox rotation heading into October might be asking too much. Fortunately though, we’re not there yet. Through two starts, David Price has both good velocity, his health, and he’s David Price. Those are all very good starts. It seems now we have a good idea of where this is all going, of where the Red Sox and Price stand. But let’s check the kids bedroom first, just in case.

Game-by-game, it breaks down thusly:

Which brings us to…

David Price’s Starts 2016, Ranked [Updated]

1. 66, third start, 4/16 — Seven crisp innings against the Blue Jays on a lovely Fenway Saturday.

2. 61, first start, 4/5 — Six strong on Opening Day at the Jake.

3. 43 second start, 4/11 — Five innings against the Orioles at home, one of which was Trumbo’ed.

Of these three starts, the second one drew the most attention, given that Price was allowed an extra day of rest to provide Steven Wright his normal first turn through the rotation. This kept Price off the mound in Toronto on a Sunday, and put him on the mound for Fenway’s home opener, away from his late-2015 stomping grounds, and he got got. Perhaps in response to this, John Farrell let Price pitch on regular rest for his third start, at which point the ace posted his best start of the year.

How is he doing it?

I was intrigued by the idea of doing a Price deep-dive so that I could familiarize myself with some of the more in-depth analytics that are available to me on the tubes; I mention this just to make it clear I’m feeling my way around in the early going, so feel free to skip ahead if you’re caught up on Price’s Brooks Baseball profile.

Three games isn’t a huge sample size, but it’s big enough to give us something. In this case, it’s clear that Price’s velocity is down across the board, even if just a tick:

To that end, check out this craziness:

Noah Syndergaard average changeup this year: 91.5 mph.

David Price average fastball this year: 91.4 mph

— Brandon Warne (@Brandon_Warne) April 18, 2016

Which isn’t necessarily a knock on Price, because, as Pedro said, “Thooooooooooor!” But it might be a little concerning. If he clocks in for April at 92.87 average miles per hour on his four-seamer (the sinker’s at 93.01, the cutter 89.1), it would be the lowest mark of his career for any given month. He’s only been under 93 for any month twice in his career — the last two months of 2014 — and he’s never had an April under 94.

Sometimes, though, velocity isn’t everything: The Trumbo homer, Price’s only HR allowed on the year, came on what MLB.com calls a 2-seam fastball, but I’m gonna say was a 4-seamer, at 94 miles per hour. Speed most decidedly did not kill Trumbo, but the stage was set for a big hit before Price let go of the pitch, his 24th of the inning, and the most likely culprit was Price getting in his own head.

This is just one theory, at least, but after Price gave up a leadoff double to Joey Rickard to open the game (but escaped the jam), he looked extremely tentative to Rickard in the third, walking him on five pitches. Follow that with a HBP to Manny Machado and a single to Chris Davis, and there was something bad hanging over Fenway that manifested itself in Trumbo’s impressive blast just to the right of the triangle.

This is most definitely armchair psychology, but even at the time he seemed so unnecessarily tentative to Rickard that it was clear the double was weighing on him. This time Rickard got him less directly, but was merely the first domino in a chain reaction that eventually led to Price’s lone bad inning of the year. We will live. For now.

But enough about the bad stuff

The Price we saw on Saturday was the one we’d been waiting for, as evidenced by this video of him striking out, among others, Bautista and reigning MVP Josh Donaldson:

Yeah, the Donaldson pitch was three inches inside. We’ll take it. That guy is a house on fire, and Price managed to put him out. It’s worth mentioning that Price’s last two starts have been against the lumbering offenses of Baltimore and Toronto, and he’s merely managed to be pinched once, and in impressive fashion, no less. Starting with Thursday’s game against the Rays (for whom he used to pitch, I’m told). Should be fun, especially because Price’s presence means no Corey Dickerson, an no Dickerson leaves a neutered Rays line. Their current listed pitcher is listed as “TBA,” but knowing the Rays, it’ll be someone of whom we’ve never heard and who is amazing… but not as good as David Price.

Photo by Butch Dill/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Clay Buchholz was actually looking pretty solid until the sixth inning. It wasn’t his best start, granted, but he flashed the changeup and curveball that he needs to be successful. Then the sixth inning happened. It started with Chris Davis effortlessly crushing a ball off the wall in left field, a noteworthy achievement given the wind blasting toward right field. Of course, that was nothing compared to Mark Trumbo, who followed that up with a blast over everything in left (+.223) that tied the game up at four. The Orioles have some stupid power, you guys.

Bottom Play (WPA): Let me start this by saying Mike Wright is not a good pitcher. I don’t think that’s a controversial statement. He was solid last night, but the Red Sox had a chance to put him away in the fourth. The score was tied at two, and after two quick outs the bases became loaded with a single and two hit batsmen. Blake Swihart came to the plate with a chance to give Buchholz a much-needed cushion early in this game. Instead, he hit a routine grounder to Jonathan Schoop at second (-.086) and the inning was over without a run being scored. It was a rough night for Swihart, but we’ll get to that in a second.

Key Moment: Remember that Trumbo home run that ended up being the most important play in the game? It probably never should’ve happened. Earlier in that at bat, he popped a ball in foul territory in front of the Red Sox dugout. It looked like a routine play. The wind messed things up for fielders all night, but if we’re being honest with ourselves it should’ve been caught. Instead, Swihart misread it and it fell past his outstretched glove. Maybe Hanley Ramirez should’ve called him off, as he had a better read on it. He probably should have. But either way, that’s a ball Swihart should’ve had. Buchholz still shares plenty of the blame for allowing Trumbo to hit a ball 1200 yards, but the whole situation could’ve been avoided.

More Swihart Sadness: That’s probably enough sadness for Swihart in one game, but there’s one more play that gets added to this list. Not only did he account for the worst play in the game by WPA, but he also was the proud owner of the third-worst play. After that mess of a sixth inning, the Red Sox still only trailed by one run in the bottom half. Once again, Boston’s catcher found himself at the plate in a big situation, this time with Travis Shaw on third and two outs. A single would’ve tied the game, but instead he hit yet another routine ground ball to second base. People on the twittersphere were already wondering when Christian Vazquez would take the starting role behind the plate, which is obviously insane. However, there’s no denying it was a rough night for Swihart. He’ll likely get a much needed night off tonight with Joe Kelly taking the hill.

The Most Clay Buchholz Start Ever: Well, that’s probably not true since he left the mound healthy, but everything else about it was quintessential Buchholz. He started the outing with some shaky control, walking two of his first six opponents. Then, he settled down and started looking like a near-ace with both his changeup and his curveball working. At one point, he struck out four of eight batters he faced while allowing just one to reach base. Then, he was hurt by a bit of dumb luck, with JJ Hardy hooking a ball around Pesky’s Pole with as short of a home run as humanly possible*. Then, of course, he imploded in the sixth. Buchholz is still the shrug emoji personified.

*He did that twice, by the way. Baseball is dumb.

Failure in Middle Relief: The Red Sox’s bullpen was supposed to be a strength for this team in 2016, and for the most part it has been. Tonight, though, they were really feeling the absence of Carson Smith. Noe Ramirez came in after Buchholz, and while he only allowed one inherited run, that was because of big defensive plays from Mookie Betts and Travis Shaw. After him, Robbie Ross entered and promptly allowed three runs (plus one inherited runner from Ramirez) to score. Things will look better once Smith comes back, but Boston really needs one more arm to step up at some point this year.

David Ortiz Still Rules, Though: No matter what else happens this season, never lose sight of the fact that we still get to watch David Ortiz. The man is incredible. He hit another home run last night, his third of the year. He also hit an RBI double in his last at bat of the game. The man is hitting .346/.393/.846 on the season. Are we sure he has to retire?

Coming Next: The Red Sox and Orioles will finish their series tonight, with Boston trying to avoid the sweep and trying to inexplicably give Baltimore their first loss of the season. On the mound, it’ll be a matchup of enigmatic pitchers with sometimes-electric stuff and generally poor results with Joe Kelly facing off against Ubaldo Jimenez. First pitch will be at 7:00 Eastern.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

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