With Sandoval on the DL and jack of all trades, master of none Brock Holt still experiencing symptoms of vertigo, Rule 5 draft pick Rutledge was at third base yesterday. He was starting because utility infielder Marco Hernandez has a fielding percentage that starts with an eight. *Barely* starts with an eight. But Hernandez isn’t a third baseman. He’s a shortstop with some time spent at second base. Rutledge played a bit of third too, and is a fine fill-in for a few innings, but he’s not a third baseman either. In six seasons in the majors he’s had 50 chances at third base. Compare that to over 1,000 combined at shortstop and second. He’s in Hernandez’s boat. He’s a player being asked to do something he’s not capable of doing. There is a saying you’ve likely heard. Put players in position to succeed. So far, at third base, the Red Sox have done the opposite. They have put their players in position to fail.

So don’t be tempted to blame Hernandez, or for that matter, Rutledge, whose error yesterday shows only a glimpse of what is in store for the Red Sox should he continue at the position. They are merely doing what was asked of them. No, it’s not their fault. It’s the Red Sox fault.

Of course this all comes back to the front office. It goes deeper than Dave Dombrowski too. The Red Sox haven’t had a competent regular third baseman for more than a season in almost a decade now, so the fault for that goes well beyond the team president who took over just over a season ago. This is on Ben Cherington, and even Theo Epstein before him. But, man, Dave Dombrowski did his part here as well and since he’s the one in charge now, it bears looking at what he’s done.

Just this past off-season Dombrowski dealt 2016 starting third baseman Travis Shaw to the Brewers along with Mauricio Dubon (and Josh Pennington) for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Thornburg is injured and hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Red Sox. Shaw is hitting .263/.302/.545. Then Dombrowski traded Yoan Moncada (along with others) for Chris Sale. Moncada had moved to third base while in the Boston system, but the White Sox have since moved him back to his preferred position of second base. Still, for the Red Sox, Moncada represented depth at third. So did Shaw, for that matter.

The organization has to have a plan. Is the plan to start Pablo Sandoval at third base? Okay, that makes sense given the financial obligations and the player’s history, but who can back him up if he struggles or gets hurt?

The issue isn’t should the Red Sox have traded for Chris Sale or not. Who could make that argument and not look like a jackass? The point here is less specific, more abstract. The organization has to have a plan. Is the plan to start Pablo Sandoval at third base? Okay, that makes sense given the financial obligations and the player’s history, but who can back him up if he struggles or gets hurt? This is a guy who just missed almost an entire season and before that wasn’t hitting enough or fielding well enough to hold down a major league job. There has to be a backup plan. Travis Shaw fits that mold perfectly, but he was traded.

That’s not to say Travis Shaw shouldn’t have been traded. Of course you can trade Shaw (though I didn’t care for it then and that deal looks like crap now), but if you do you have to get someone back who can fill that same role for the organization, if not in that deal, then in the next, because without Shaw, that depth does not exist in the Red Sox organization. There isn’t anyone in Triple-A who can step in and not hurt the major league team without Shaw.

Instead, Dombrowski went further in dealing Moncada. Again, this isn’t to say you can’t trade Moncada. You can! You just have to be sure the organization can handle his loss. You have to cover for whatever hole he leaves behind. The Red Sox and Dombrowski didn’t do it, Sandoval predictably got hurt, and now we have the current predicament.

I said earlier that this wasn’t all on Dombrowski, that it was in some part on Cherington as well. Now, a few paragraphs later, I’m rethinking my position on that. Cherington left the organization with Sandoval, Shaw (drafted under Epstein, but not traded by Cherington), and Moncada. That’s not perfect, but it’s something. It’s capable of being improved on, but there is some competent depth at the position. After dealing both Shaw and Moncada and not replacing them with anyone, there is no depth at the position. So maybe this is all on Dombrowski.

To me it comes back to a few things. Not caring enough about organizational depth is one, but over-valuing relievers is another. Of all the moves that Dombrowski has made, perhaps his most polarizing, and from a statistical standpoint most damaging, have been his deals for relievers. He has made three big deals specifically for relievers. Those deals have cost the Red Sox Dubon, Shaw, Pennington, Wade Miley, Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Manny Margot. That’s a whole lot of talent (and even more if you look at what Miley is doing this season in Baltimore), and so far the Red Sox have received one season of good (not great) relief pitching from Kimbrel. That’s it. It’s been stated time and again that relievers are maybe the most volatile of players, and making big deals for relievers is a time-tested way to ruin your franchise. That’s not to say it never works. The Indians are probably fine with the Andrew Miller deal, for example, even almost a year later. But deals like Miller’s are the exception to the rule. Far more common are deals like the Thornburg deal. It’s possible that Thornburg could return and be amazing, but even if he does, it’s highly unlikely he’ll approach the value the Red Sox sent off to get him. Also, even if he does, look what the deal did to Boston’s depth at third base. Look at who they’re running out there every day. Thornburg better be good.

Of all those now gone players, only Shaw is a full time third baseman, but that’s less the point. Sure, Shaw would be incredibly useful to the Red Sox right now, far more so than Thornburg, but imagine having Margot, or Asuaje, or even Allen. Those guys could be traded to bring in someone so the Red Sox don’t have to keep running Rutledge or Hernandez, or if he gets better, Holt, out to positions they shouldn’t be playing. Instead of getting the biggest shiniest name on the market, perhaps the organization should put some stock in depth. It’s what got them through last season when Sandoval was lost early to season-ending surgery. It’s what allowed the organization to survive the loss of starting catcher Christian Vazquez last season. It’s also what they lacked in left field in 2016, causing them to move Blake Swihart left where he got hurt and was lost for the year.

Depth is important. Injuries happen. Starters don’t always stay on the field. You have to be able to cover for them without hurting yourself badly in the process. That’s the Red Sox biggest problem at third base. It’s not that their starter is hurt and can’t play. It’s that they have nobody else to step in for him. Like all depth-related issues, it was a little problem, but now it’s a big one.

Photo by John E. Sokolowski – USA TODAY Sports

Acquired RHP Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for IF-L Travis Shaw, IF-R Mauricio Dubon, and RHP Josh Pennington. [12/6]

If you were casually watching the playoffs–had it on in the background while cooking dinner, fighting with your kids about homework, or waiting on hold with the Canadian embassy–you still probably picked out the most salient takeaway: relievers are important. The newish, more gutsy Red Sox front office, led by Dave Dombrowski and, four empty rungs down, probably some other people, noticed this too. We know because Dombrowski doesn’t do deceit, but we also know because he just traded for Thornburg.

Thornburg is the eighth-inning piece the Red Sox thought they had traded for last season when they got right-hander Carson Smith from the Mariners. Then Smith needed Tommy Johnsurgery and the Red Sox were right back where they were before the deal. They pieced things together last season, but when the offseason began Dombrowski stated the team needed to get an eighth-inning reliever. Remember I said Dombrowski doesn’t do deceit? This is that reliever.

Read the rest for free at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Gary A. Vazquez/USA Today Sports Images

The State of the System: I could just C&P the Nats lines here. Incredible top five, falls off quickly after that, and past the top ten, even fewer intriguing names than the Nats.

The Top Ten

1. OF Andrew Benintendi
2. IF Yoan Moncada
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. LHP Jason Groome
5. RHP Michael Kopech
6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe
7. SS Mauricio Dubon
8. 1B Sam Travis
9. LHP Brian Johnson
10. 1B Josh Ockimey

The Big Question: Why don’t we give out 80 hit tools?

Andrew Benintendi is about as sure a bet to hit for a good batting average as a prospect can be. He was a top-ten overall draft pick as a small, late-blooming, moderately bat-first player. The bat has to be really good for that to happen. His minor-league performance record is absolutely flawless, outside of a rough first couple weeks in Double-A that got drowned out in the season line quickly when he started crushing the ball. He is essentially already established as a major-league regular, only eligible for this list because a minor injury kept him just a touch under the rookie-eligibility requirements. He hit .295 for a month-and-a-half in the majors in a pennant race. He’s got one of those picture-perfect beautiful lefty swings. He makes a short, aggressive move on the ball. His wrists are great, his bat speed is excellent, and he has a really good idea of what he wants to do. The ball jumps off his bat in a way it does for the truly special ones. There’s basically nothing to nitpick here. This is the total hit package.

Read the rest ($) at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Michael Kopech

With Moncada getting sent home early, Kopech became the top Red Sox player in the league, and he took the baseball world by storm. He flashed his famous high-velocity fastball, consistently touching the high-90s and sometimes hitting triple digits. He made six starts in Arizona, totaling 22 innings and pitching to an impressive 2.01 ERA. Unsurprisingly, he racked up the strikeouts, setting down 10.5 batters per nine innings thanks to his aforementioned fastball along with an impressive slider. The command continued to be something of an issue, though not one that handcuffed him much in this league. He allowed two home runs in those six starts while walking 3.2 batters per nine innings.

Stock: It’s impossible to say Kopech’s stock has done anything but rise after his performance in Arizona. He was already one of the more exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball, and the fact that he pitched so well and pitched to his strengths in front of a plethora of scouts from across the league is a positive. There is still some question as to whether he’ll be able to harness his command enough to make it as a top-line starter, but it seems more are starting to come around to that idea. His performance in the All-Star Game (two perfect innings with three strikeouts) certainly helped matters. He’s not the best pitching prospect in baseball, but he continued to move up the ranks this fall.

Mauricio Dubon

If you know me at all, you know how much I like Dubon as a prospect. His combination of bat-to-ball ability, speed and defense around the infield gives him a chance to be a good regular in this league and should lead him to at least a long career as a utility man. The former 26th-round pick took a huge step forward in 2016, impressing in both Salem and Portland. While he was hoping to take another step in Arizona, it didn’t go his way. In 18 games, he hit just .211/.273/.408 with three home runs and three stolen bases in five attempts. It was a disappointing offensive performance after such a great year, and one that could indicate a bit of fatigue after a long season. The power is intriguing, and something that he showed off in Portland as well, but Arizona lends itself to inflated power numbers.

Stock: While the overall performance was disappointing, I don’t think it’s fair to say his stock has dropped. Dubon struggled over a small sample, but as I said fatigue could also be an issue. Additionally, he started getting some time in the outfield and didn’t look completely overmatched by the change. Versatility is always going to be the name of the game for Dubon, and getting his outfield career started was an important step for him. That’s true even if it was accompanied by a lackluster offensive performance.

Trey Ball

Ugh. The Red Sox have done a lot of good things in the draft over the years, but their first top-10 pick in what seemed like forever could not have gone worse. Ball was always going to be a project, but he continued to slip over the course of 2016. The hope was that a trip to Arizona would kickstart his career. That…well that didn’t happen. He threw 13 innings across 11 relief appearances, and pitched to a 6.08 ERA in that time. He also walked 13 batters (one per inning, for those who struggle in math) while striking out just nine.

Stock: Down. The same direction it’s been going since Ball has entered the organization. There was certainly criticism of this pick at the time it was made, but we’re seeing the darkest timeline. With the lefty projected to hit Portland in 2017, it’s hard to see things getting any better. Ball was a two-way player when he was drafted, and perhaps the Red Sox are approaching the time to try him in the field.

Jamie Callahan

A former second-round pick, Callahan made his way through the first half of his trip in the minors as a starter before converting to the bullpen in the middle of the 2015 season. He spent the entire 2016 campaign in that role, and showed off decent strikeout stuff with iffy command. In Arizona, however, he looked much better. It was only 12 innings of work, but he allowed just one run on 12 strikeouts and three walks.

Stock: Up. Callahan’s stock was never all that high to begin with, and this strong performance isn’t one to get carried away with. On the other hand, he’s still relatively new to his relief role and did this against a lot of very good competition. He wouldn’t be anything more than the third or fourth piece in a good trade, but he’ll look to take another step towards a real major-league career in a Double-A bullpen next season.

Jalen Beeks

Beeks is a lefty who split the season evenly between High-A and Double-A, impressing in the former and disappointing in the latter. He threw out of the bullpen in Arizona, managing 12 innings of work in ten appearances. Although he struck out 13 batters in those 12 innings, he also gave up plenty of hard contact en route to a 6.57 ERA.

Stock: Even. The performance was bad, but Beeks doesn’t have much stock to begin with. The strikeout stuff was nice to see, and as I said in Dubon’s section home runs are an issue for everyone here. He’s still the same guy with a ceiling of a back-end starter and more likely future as either a back-and-forth arm or a middle reliever.

Danny Mars

We won’t spend too much time here, as Mars is the least exciting name in this bunch. A former sixth-round pick, he spent the season hitting reasonably well in Salem. In Arizona, though, he hit .259/.290/.293 in 17 games.

Stock: Down. Only a little, though. As I said, Mars was never all that exciting to begin with. However, even if the scouts didn’t love him he always put up solid numbers in the minors. Not doing so in Arizona is clearly not a good sign.

 Photo by Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

Over the past two weeks, most BP Boston authors have published 2017 Offseason Oracle columns in which we’ve gone in depth over what we think will happen (not what we think should happen) this offseason. Go read them. For a quick overview of what we think is in Boston’s future, refer to this handy chart:

Look forward to our “where we went wrong” post in March!

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

Johnson has had something of a tough 2016, working through anxiety issues that sidelined him for the better part of two months. The lefty returned to action at the beginning of July, making four starts in the low minors (two in rookie ball, another pair for Low-A Greenville) before returning to his spot in the Pawtucket rotation July 24. And since doing so, he’s been impressive. His first start back with the Triple-A squad was rough, as he lasted just three innings. But Johnson’s four subsequent starts have been masterful, working to a 1.78 ERA with a 3-1 record across a combined 25.1 innings. He has never had much in the way of a swing-and-miss pitch (nothing compared to the almighty Joe Kelly’s #stuff), and that hasn’t changed this year. But in these past four starts, Johnson has shown very solid control, walking only four while striking a passable 15. That has been good enough to keep his WHIP at a remarkably tidy 0.91.

The almost-downside to this short stretch is Johnson’s slightly inflated 3.57 FIP. All of these stats, of course, are accompanied by a flashing bright red sign reading “small sample size.” Regardless, props to Brian Johnson. By all accounts, it’s been a tough year for the big hurler, but he’s bounced back to an impressive performance level. After Henry Owens’ eight-run showing on Sunday, Johnson could be next in line to start if Eduardo Rodriguez can’t make his next start.

Also hey don’t look now but Rusney Castillo kinda sorta might be hitting .366 since July 27. He also may or may not have zero home runs in that 22-game span. But, psh, who likes homers anyway. Hooray for $72.5 million Cuban investments!

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

So, you may have heard, but the Red Sox have two young prospects that have spent the bulk of the season in Portland. And, believe it or not, the Sea Dogs have players that are not Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi. Mauricio Dubon is one of those players, and also concurrently is good at baseball. Dubon is slashing .332/.365/.526 in 49 games since being called up to Double-A, knocking four homers and driving in 31. All of those dingers have come since July 31, during an 18-game stretch where the Dubon is hitting .370 with a 1.066 OPS.

Dubon clearly thinks walks are for nerds, taking free passes just 4.8 percent of the time, but he’s also not too whiff-prone, striking out in just 9.9 percent of at-bats since the end of July. SoxProspects has Dubon listed as the 11th-best prospect in the Red Sox system, but he might climb his way up at least slightly if he wraps up the season hitting as well as he has thus far at Double-A.

Quick update on Yoan Moncada:

The Cuban phenom is back from a pretty rough-looking ankle sprain. And he’s playing third now, where he could actually find playing time at the Major League level! Swell! Well, in his first game at the hot corner, Moncada went 0-for-5 with four punch outs and an error. So, yeah. But from the good news corner, he looked better in his second day at third on Monday. According to noted smart person Ben Badler of Baseball America, he has a plus arm and good range on the left side of the infield.

High-A Salem: Michael Kopech (RHP)

He may not be touching 105 MPH in every start, but Kopech has remained incredibly effective with the Salem squad in his couple months since returning to the mound. The somehow-just-20-year-old is 3-1 (meaningless win-loss record alert!) with a 1.29 ERA in 10 starts. He’s walked a bunch of dudes who definitely are incapable of hitting him, issuing 26 free passes while only allowing 27 hits. Still, he has kept his WHIP at a very palatable 1.09. Kopech also refuses to stop striking everyone out. Seriously, it’s a little ridiculous. He has 75 punch outs in 48.2 innings pitched. He has 10 or more K’s in three of his past four starts. Kopech might be just a little bit too good for High-A.

Gulf Coast League: Jason Groome (LHP)

Yeah, that’s right, we’re going all the way down to Rookie Ball in Fort Myers. You probably thought you wouldn’t have to hear about that place until next February, yet here we are, and it’s all due to 12th-overall pick this year Jason Groome. The left-hander made his professional debut on Monday, throwing two shutout innings on 30 pitches, 19 of which went for strikes. He allowed a single hit and struck out three. If you want to read some actual reporting and quotes from Groome’s debut, go check out Alex Speier’s writeup in the Globe. In the meantime, rejoice over the addition of another pitching prospect to pile high with unreasonable expectations!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

After a slew of promising starts for Johnson, the lefty hit a small bump in the road during his latest outing. On Sunday, Johnson only lasted three innings in Columbus, allowing four earned runs on six hits in three innings. He also struck out one and walked four, throwing 78 pitches, 46 of them being strikes. It was an unfortunate outing to cap off what had been, for the most part, an encouraging July from Johnson.

This was his first start for Pawtucket since he took some time off, so an adjustment period is to be expected. Anxiety is no joke, and with other viable (whatever, they might be) options in Triple-A, there’s no real rush for Johnson. Still, he didn’t look half bad in four starts split between Lowell and the Red Sox Gulf Coast affiliate, so the potential is still there. It will be interesting to see how quickly he gets back to where he was before he was placed on the temporary inactive list in early May.

Quick update on Henry Owens

If you can believe it, Owens followed up a strong start with a poor one. After posting seven innings of one-hit ball on the 16th — arguably his strongest outing of the year — Owens was flat five days later, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings. He also walked three.

Double-A Portland: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

He’s the one raking in Portland that isn’t mentioned in Chris Sale rumors. Over the last 10 games he’s hitting .421 and is riding a seven game hitting streak. MLB.com has Dubon ranked as the 11th best prospect in the Red Sox system. He started the year in Salem, slashing .306/.387/.379 (with a pedestrian .766 OPS, though) and has missed a beat since being promoted. In 27 games at Portland, he’s hitting .333/.372/.476 and raised that OPS to .848.

The irony of him not being mentioned in trade rumors is that if the Sox make a move over the next week, it’s more likely than not it’s Dubon on the move than Benintendi or Moncada. It’s unfortunate that he’s blocked by two organizational cornerstones and a third wunderkind that might very well also be one, but Dubon is a nice prospect who could turn into a serviceable every day starter for someone down the line.

Quick Update on Yoan Moncada 

The last 10 days in Portland haven’t been kind to Moncada, who’s hitting a measly .167 over that last span. He hasn’t hit a home run since he hit two in one game on July 18th. [Editor’s note: These stats are through 7/25, and Moncada did hit a homer last night]

Even Quicker Update on Andrew Benintendi

He’s playing left field now! It’s all happening!

High-A Salem: Rafael Devers (3B)

He’s had quite a week, hitting .300/.391/.650 with a 1.041 OPS over the last seven days. He’s hit .378/.434/.711 during an out-of-his-mind stretch throughout July. This season, his month splits go as such:

April: .138/.242./.263
May: .245/.301/.351
June: .313/.351/.386
July: .378/.434/.711

It’s well documented that Devers was wildly unlucky to start the year – in April he had a ugly .145 BABIP. This July, that numbers up at .458, which is fun. Totally, completely unsustainable, but fun. In a perfect world Portland plays at least a few games with Benintendi, Devers, and Dubon all on the left side with Moncada at second. Could that team beat the Sixers!?

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

He’s hitting .318 over the last week and .373 in the month of July. Considering he’s a career .260 hitter throughout his short career, there’s probably some sort of regression not far away. He has five plus tools, although scouts seem to be the least confident in the hit tool. He’s shown some of that surprising power this month as well, hitting four home runs while only hitting six in the previous three months combined.

He was also born in 1996, and there’s nothing quite like writing about young prospects to help remind you that time is fleeting and we all grow old.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Given the cost of acquiring Pomeranz and how good this team is offensively, it’s tempting to believe this means the Red Sox should be done. They now have a reasonable top-four in their rotation, and might even go five deep if the Eduardo Rodriguez we saw in New York is the E-Rod we’ll get moving forward. Their offense is crazy good. Their bullpen is good enough, and could be a genuine plus if a few guys can stay healthy at once. The Red Sox’s current playoff odds stand at 79.9%, and we have every reason to believe this is a team that can make it to October, and might be able to play deep into that month.

I still think they should trade for Julio Teheran.

Teheran will cost a lot to acquire. He’s going to cost way more than just one of the remaining Big Three prospects, and he should. Teheran is 25 years old, is signed affordably through 2019 with an option for 2020 and, per PWARP, has had the 12th-best season of any starter this year (one spot ahead of Pomeranz, interestingly enough). He may not be an ace in the Chris Sale or Jose Fernandez sense, but he’s a really good, really young pitcher, and he’s probably available.

Despite the cost it will probably take to get him, there are a bunch of reasons Teheran is pretty much the perfect fit for this team right now. While the Red Sox shouldn’t completely mortgage their future to acquire him, he’d go a long way toward addressing the organization’s biggest deficiency. Before you yell at me, let’s review:

Teheran is good

I alluded to this above, but Teheran, by any objective measure, is really good. He’s sporting a 2.96 ERA, 3.03 DRA, 22.8 K%, 5.3 BB% and 40.2 GB% in 118.2 innings this season. He’s a former top prospect who was also pretty good in 2013 and really good in 2014. He was meh last year, which seems to be the primary reason people are worried about acquiring him. But he has the pedigree, past performance and age of a pitcher who should be capable of throwing near the top of a rotation for many years. Those guys are hard to come by.

The one legit gripe I see with Teheran is that he’s a fly-ball pitcher who’s already surrendering 1.21 HR/9 in Atlanta. That’s almost certainly going to go up in Fenway. My counter to this: show me all the good, young available pitchers on the market right now. They don’t exist. Just because Teheran isn’t perfect doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be a marked improvement over most arms in the Red Sox system. Maybe he’s more of a no. 3 in the AL than a no. 2, but Teheran isn’t going to go from an All-Star in Atlanta to a scrub in Boston.

Teheran is cheap and cost-controlled

Back when the Braves were good, they locked up a significant portion of their core to team-friendly contract extensions. That didn’t stop them from shipping away Craig Kimbrel or Andrelton Simmons, and it shouldn’t stop them from trading Teheran, who signed a six-year, $32.4 million extension with the Braves before the 2014 season. He’s also got an affordable option for 2020, meaning the Red Sox could acquire Teheran’s age-25-through-age-30 seasons, which is pretty much exactly when you want to have a pitcher in your service. Teheran has also proven capable of staying on the mound and eating innings, averaging 202.1 IP over the past three years.

The best part about the Pomeranz deal, as I wrote in my TA at the mothersite, is that he’s under control for two more seasons beyond this one. That’s really important, because the Red Sox are looking at a solid three-to-four year window in which they should be competing for championships. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. won’t be expensive yet during this window. David Price, Rick Porcello, Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Carson Smith should all be reasonable contributors during this time. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi are poised to join that core by around this time next season. Plus, the Red Sox have solid complimentary players in Steven Wright, Blake Swihart, Hanley Ramirez, Brock Holt, Travis Shaw and Dustin Pedroia under control, too.

The Red Sox have offense, they have a few good starters and they have back-end bullpen arms. But in adding Teheran, they could build out a good, young rotation that will perfectly compliment their impressive offensive core for the next handful of seasons. That’s important for two reasons, the first of which is:

The Red Sox stink at developing starting pitching

I covered this in depth in my TA, but to rehash: the Red Sox can’t develop starters! Matt Barnes has turned into a solid reliever, but he can’t start. Brandon Workman flopped in the rotation. Henry Owens’s control has taken a step back when it already needed to take two steps forward. Brian Johnson’s had trouble staying on the mound. Allen Webster flopped. Rubby De La Rosa stunk. Felix Doubront was only good for half a season. Michael Bowden busted. Trey Ball is headed in that direction. The Red Sox are good at a lot of things as an organization, but bringing along home-grown starters isn’t one of them.

There’s still time for Owens and Johnson. Maybe one of them figures it out and becomes a back-end arm. There’s value in that, but Teheran figures to bring a whole lot more to the table; better performance and more certainty. When you can’t develop pitching, you need to either trade for it or sign it. Which brings us to the next point …

There are almost no good starters on the market

The 2017 class of free-agent starters is a god damn tire fire. You’re looking at guys like Brett Anderson, Rich Hill, C.J. Wilson, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister at the top of the class. There’s no one even close to Teheran available.

In terms of targeting a different arm than Teheran to trade for, ok. That’s reasonable. But who’s out there? Sale and Fernandez shouldn’t be available. The A’s have no reason to sell low on Sonny Gray, nor the Rays on Chris Archer (who might not even be as good as Teheran). Zack Greinke’s contract would be pretty tough to swallow if the D-Backs would even be willing to move him. The Indians are in the thick of things and have no reason to sell Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco.  It’s not a buyer’s market.

The Red Sox have the prospect depth

The final point is the most painful one, because I, like the rest of you, like to hug my prospects close and tuck them in at night. But the point of amassing prospects isn’t to ensure that all of them reach the big-league club; it’s to use them in any way that can contribute to the on-field product. Often times that means making room for them on the MLB roster, but it can also mean trading them to acquire talent that fits better.

Dave Dombrowski clearly knows this, having traded away three top-100 prospects in Espinoza, Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra for Pomeranz and Kimbrel. Losing that type of talent hurts, but the crazy thing about Boston’s farm system is they still have the pieces needed to get Teheran, or at the very last to try.

Here’s where it gets tricky; I’m 100% sure I would not move Moncada for Teheran, and I’m 90% sure I wouldn’t move Benintendi for him either. If the Braves insist on one of those two to start the package — a demand they’d be well within their right to make — I have no problem with the Red Sox holding serve and looking for a cheaper upgrade or praying E-Rod turns it around.  

But I don’t think it’s crazy to think the Red Sox could start a package with Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez and build from there. Consider the Shelby Miller trade from earlier this season. The Braves received a top-25 prospect in Dansby Swanson, a reasonable everyday player in Ender Inciarte and a top-100 arm in Aaron Blair for Miller, who pitched much better than Teheran did last year but who doesn’t come with Teheran’s insanely team-friendly contract. 

Odds are the Braves would be looking for something similar for Teheran, and I think the Red Sox can match. Devers would be Swanson in this case, a mid-minors top-25 bat with impact potential. E-Rod could take the place of Inciarte as a young, MLB-ready piece right now. And Henry Owens could serve here as Aaron Blair, giving the Braves another young arm to try and groom (seriously, they love young arms).

Maybe the Red Sox also throw in a Mauricio Dubon (sorry Collins) or a Pat Light or a Travis Lakins. If that’s what it takes to get Teheran while holding onto Moncada and Benintendi, so be it.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to make a very competitive offer for Teheran without gutting the core pieces that should contribute to their future.

The Braves could decide such a package isn’t enough. Maybe another pitching-needy team like the Blue Jays or Rangers or Dodgers will come knocking and blow the Braves away with a bevvy of young talent. Maybe Atlanta will decide they want to hold on to Teheran as they rebuild, even though they’re probably at least two years away from contention. If this is the case, so be it.

But the Red Sox have the opportunity to make a very competitive offer without gutting the core pieces that should contribute to their future. At the very least, it’s an opportunity they should explore. A rotation of Price, Teheran, Wright, Pomeranz and Porcello wouldn’t just be respectable; it would be objectively good. And it could be good for the next several seasons while leaving the Red Sox with enough money to go get another arm should a starter go down with injury or underperform.

Pairing that type of a rotation with the Red Sox’s young, offensive core will give them the type of young, cost-controlled, high-upside team every fan dreams of rooting for. And while Boston’s minor league depth will suffer as a result, they’d still have the pieces to make marginal upgrades thanks to players like Sam Travis, Michael Kopech, Jason Groome and others. The point of a good farm system isn’t to win offseason org rankings; it’s to help the big-league squad win.

Teheran is not a “true ace,” is not the best fit for Fenway Park and would cost a fortune in talent. He’s also good, young, has upside remaining and can provide the Red Sox the one thing they need and can’t develop on their own; quality starting pitching. It would be a risky move for Boston, but nothing ventured, nothing gained.

When you have a young core this good, it’s time to venture.

Photo by Jason Getz/USA Today Sports Images

This year is no exception, as the team is stacked at the top-end of its farm system. Specifically, Boston boasts a foursome of high-ceiling guys in Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, Anderson Espinoza and Rafael Devers that matches any other foursome across the league. The ceilings of each player differs from one another, but collectively all four have the potential to be core members of a championship team if everything goes to plan. Who among us doesn’t like to dream on that kind of potential?

While the Red Sox have been stockpiling these assets, they’ve also quietly started developing another type of minor leaguer, the kind of guy who goes unnoticed by casual fans and diehards alike. If you look at the recent history of the organization, a seemingly infinite number of high-floor, low-ceiling infielders have come up through the system, or been added from elsewhere. These are, almost by definition, incredibly boring players and understandably don’t get much attention They do hold the potential to provide a ton of value, however, and one can see why the Red Sox have to be happy in developing plenty of the utility-type players.

If you look at the recent history of the organization, a seemingly infinite number of high-floor, low-ceiling infielders have come up through the Red Sox system.

Three main players currently come to mind when I talk about this prospect archetype: Marco Hernandez, Mauricio Dubon and Carlos Asuaje. Deven Marrero could also be included in this group, as his glove bakes in a relatively high ceiling even if the bat comes around. The first three, however, share a lot of interesting similarities. Each can play multiple infield positions, making them valuable bench pieces. Each can run at least a little bit, giving them extra versatility. Finally, each possess line drive-oriented swings with gap-to-gap power to make up for a lack of home-run strength.

None of this makes for a superstar package, but it’s easy to succeed at some level with that toolset at your disposal. While they are never going to be headliners of a farm system (and you never want to allocate your scouting resources to find only players of this ilk), they are highly valuable for any organization for a few different reasons.

The first being that it’s simply easier for everyone if you don’t have to fill out your bench using free agency. Just look back at this past offseason for the Red Sox, when their lack of outfield depth was a glaring hole, and they had to find their fourth outfielder on the open market. It’s not a perfect comparison, as Chris Young is a starting-caliber player against certain pitchers, but ideally teams would be able to develop short-side-of-the-platoon outfielders rather than spending $11 million in free agency.

Most of the time, the group of bench players in free agency is simply terrible. Here is a sampling of last year’s pool: Chris Johnson, Stephen Drew, Mike Aviles, Gordan Beckham, Cliff Pennington. Pennington got a two-year deal! Obviously, these guys aren’t costing a significant amount of money, especially for a team like the Red Sox. However, they do cost some money that is better saved for wooing free agents that provide more impact. Plus, it takes time seeking and working out a trade for these types of players that would be better spent doing anything else.

On top of that, these types of players can also be used as kickers in trades, particularly when you have a surplus like the Red Sox enjoy. You don’t need to look any further than this past winter with the Craig Kimbrel trade. Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra were the headliners and Logan Allen was the pitcher San Diego seeked, but Asuaje was a key part of the deal, too.

Could the trade have gotten done without him? Probably. It would have either taken a more highly rated prospect or simply more time to get it done, though. If it’s a more highly rated guy, like Teddy Stankewicz, for example, then the downside is obvious. This is particularly true if you have to dip into an area of less depth. If you simply try to wait the Padres out, it could work out but it could also allow another team to jump in and get the deal done. Winning every trade is great, but if you’re too stubborn, no trades get done. Obviously, you don’t want to trade every one of these high-floor players, but when you have a bunch of them, they work as tremendous kickers to get desired trade targets without having to play mind games.

Finally, there’s the fact that prospects sometimes develop into better players than we believe. Mookie Betts is the most obvious recent example, but he looked like a stud by the time he got to the high minors. Brock Holt is a better example; he was only supposed to be a utility player as recently as last year. He’s not as good as his All-Star bid in 2015 might indicate, but he’s much better than his minor-league track record would suggest. Dubon best fits this bill among Red Sox prospects, and his performance in the minors has turned heads at every level. The scouting reports still suggest a bench role is in his future, but every strong game provides more hope of a higher ceiling.

The Red Sox and other teams are always going to spend their scouting and development resources on high-ceiling prospects, as they should. These are the players who ultimately make the biggest difference. However, when teams can develop a handful of secondary pieces at the same time, it gives them a chance to build better depth and do some interesting things. It allows teams to spend free agency time and money on high-impact players; it allows teams to more easily make trades; and it gives teams a chance to have their prospects surprise them. With Hernandez, Dubon, Asuaje and possibly Marrero, the Red Sox are seeing this work out to their advantage.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Pat Light (RHP) and Henry Owens (LHP)

Despite not receiving the same amount of attention given to Boston’s top prospects, Pat Light could have an impact on the big-league team this season. Light throws hard – his fastball routinely reaches 95mph – but has had difficulty honing his secondary offerings, so the Red Sox shifted him to a relief role for 2015. He excelled as a reliever at Double-A, striking out 32 batters and walking 11 in 29.2 innings pitched. His next promotion, to his current level at Pawtucket, proved more trying. He still struck out plenty of batters (35 in 33.0 innings), but a lack of control or lower comfort against the better hitters led to 26 walks.

Heading into the offseason, Light knew he needed to prepare for life as a reliever, a first for him in his young career. He focused on developing a physical and mental routine to support pitching out of the bullpen and worked hard to improve his fastball control. Consistently locating his overpowering fastball will be a main focus in 2016 and help shape his secondary pitches (splitter, curveball, changeup) into more dangerous weapons – a combination that could help earn him a promotion to Boston later this year. If Carson Smith’s rehab takes longer than expected or something else unforeseen presents the Red Sox with a need in the bullpen, Light could be called upon. In his first action of the 2016 season this past weekend against Buffalo, Light completed a shaky inning of work, allowing two runs on two walks, and one hit, while striking out a batter. Based on this one outing, it seems like his control issues still loom.

We have already seen Henry Owens in Boston, as he made 11 starts for the Red Sox last season with uneven results. Nevertheless, he still represents an important part of the team’s future. Owens had a chance to grab a spot in Boston’s rotation this spring, but a generally poor showing (five starts, 13.1 innings, eight runs allowed, 14 strikeouts, nine walks) coupled with Steven Wright’s solid performance, left Owens ticketed for Pawtucket to start the year. He was given the honor of starting the PawSox’s opener last Friday and pitched very well (6.0 innings, no runs, one hit, eight strikeouts, and three walks). More lines like that will get Owens to Fenway sooner rather than later, or at least have him at the front of the line for promotion when an (inevitable) injury or prolonged struggle strikes someone in the Red Sox rotation. This is something of a make-or-break year for Owens’ career in Boston.

Double-A Portland: Williams Jerez (LHP)

An area in which the Red Sox organization is a wee-bit thin is left-handed relief arms. Beyond Robbie Ross Jr. and Tommy Layne, there is not much depth on the horizon, though this partially depends on the development plan for players like Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. Williams Jerez, a converted outfielder and Boston’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015, is an option to fill this lefty-reliever void. Jerez is still a work in progress but has shown an ability to pitch in relief that, with sustained success, could have him move through the system quickly.

He made 22 appearances for the Sea Dogs in 2015 (37.0 innings), finishing with a 3.65 RA9 and a 31-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio that will need improving. Cutting down on the walk rate will be an area of focus for Jerez this season. The good news is that in his two outings this season, he has yet to issue a walk, though he has given up two runs, including a homer, on four hits over his 3.1 innings. Jerez allowed only two home runs at Double-A in 2015, so hopefully this early-season dinger does not portend bad things to come.

High-A Salem: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

On a Salem Red Sox roster packed with potential stars of the future in Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi, shortstop Mauricio Dubon may be less heralded, but he offers considerable upside. In fact, in BP’s write-up of the Red Sox system, Dubon was mentioned as “a real candidate to shoot up the list next year.” Able to play anywhere in the infield, Dubon has shown the contact skills and speed to post a decent offensive line, even if he lacks much in the way of power potential. In line with this suggestion, his opening weekend was excellent. He collected five hits (one triple), two walks and only struck out twice in his 18 trips to the plate. This season is Dubon’s second opportunity at the High-A level. He was promoted there midway through last season after beating up Low-A pitching to the tune of a .301/.354/.428 line. He took time to adjust to the pitching at the advanced level, posting a paltry .217/.287/.261 line over his first 131 PA, but then caught on and performed very well in his final 138 PA (.328/.397/.385). Having Dubon in the mix with the Moncada-Devers-Benintendi big three will make Salem a fun team to watch this season.

Low-A Greenville: Michael Chavis (3B)

Last year, in his age-19 season, Chavis led all Red Sox minor leaguers with 16 home runs. Unfortunately, that tremendous power came with a major expense in strikeouts. Among players with at least 400 PA, Chavis finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (30.6%) at the Low-A level. When he makes contact, the ball tends to be hit hard and go far. Almost half of his 97 hits went for extra bases (29 doubles, one triple to go with the 16 bombs). He just needs to make contact more often to really cash in on the power he possesses. Being more selective at the plate and focusing on attacking quality pitches should help Chavis in this area; it should also drive up his lowly walk rate. Red Sox farm director Ben Crockett told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that the club wants Chavis to work not only on his approach at the plate, but also his defense.

For now, the 2014 first-round pick will be the Drive’s primary third baseman, but if his defense on the infield proves to be a limitation, then Chavis could be moved to a corner outfield spot. Regardless, in the early goings of the 2016 season, Chavis has been up to his usual tricks. In 15 PA for the Drive, he has six hits, two of which went for extra bases, three strikeouts and has yet to earn a walk. Hopefully the plate discipline tool develops as the season progresses. At 20-years-old, Chavis is still young for the level, so he has time to make the necessary adjustments and earn advancement through the system.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com