So, because we have an innate desire to be right, especially about baseball, we’ve put together our predictions on how the season will go. Some will be right on the money, while others will look wildly outlandish by the time November rolls back around. But that’s okay! That’s what makes this fun, and when it’s all said and done, we’ll all have those moments where we won’t get something, just like Mookie Betts:

Double hit over Mookie Betts’ head while he is being interviewed by ESPN — “I ain’t getting this one, boys” — ESPN booth cracks up. pic.twitter.com/SXLhuaUfP9

— Cork Gaines (@CorkGaines) March 27, 2018

 It’ll never get old. So before we all do, here’s BP Boston’s predictions.

American League

National League

Postseason

Major Awards

Photo by Steve Mitchell — USA TODAY Sports

The correct answer is: Maybe. Maybe even: Probably. But still: We don’t know. Which in a way is good because otherwise this article would be over now and I’d have to come up with something else to write about. Fortunately for me: We still don’t know! But we can guess and we can do even better than that: We can guess in an educated manner.

Sometimes slumps look different. I recall Xander Bogaerts in his rookie season chasing everything off the plate. You could see the slider off the plate coming and you knew he’d give one of those half-hearted weak swings, the kind where the batter himself is actively thinking, “Why am I doing this?” But if you watch Benintendi during his slump, it’s not like that. At least it’s not like that yet. He’s still making contact, not striking out at any increased rate, even. In fact, if you break it out by months, May has seen Benintendi cut his strikeout rate by over three percent and up his walk rate by almost four percent. Which is, I think you’ll agree, not something you typically see from someone who is slumping.

Major League Baseball publishes exit velocity for batted balls in play and Benintendi’s 50 batted ball rolling average exit velocity has only dropped ever so slightly of late. It’s gone from about 90 mph on average to about 88 mph. That’s not nothing, but it’s not the reason you went from a .900 OPS to 0-for 30 either. Fangraphs publishes exit velocity as well, though they do it in three buckets, soft, medium, and hard. Before Benintendi’s slump began, we’ll say from the beginning of the season until May 9 when he had three hits against the Brewers, 86 percent of his balls in play were either medium or hard. That’s five percent above the league average. Since May 10th though, that number (hard plus medium) has fallen to 78.3 percent, or below average.

More germane maybe is that his soft hits have gone from 14 percent to 22 percent. What has also happened is Benintendi’s hit types have changed. He’s gone from hitting line drives 22 percent of the time to hitting line drives four percent of the time. What that’s meant in practice is few guaranteed singles or doubles. In place of line drives, Benintendi has been hitting more ground balls (and a few more fly balls).

To sum up, Benintendi isn’t striking out more, but he is making weaker contact, and contact that is less conducive to getting hits. Also, this has happened over a very small stretch of time. It’s entirely possible that Benintendi is under the weather, has a minor nagging injury, or some other such thing that is making his best possible performance more difficult. We can’t know why his batted ball profile has changed, just that it has and, this being a bit under two weeks, that it could change back just as quickly.

A lost season for Benintendi would be far from a good outcome, but we’re not there yet. So far he’s only had a bad couple weeks. In a normal season for an above average player, two bad weeks barely registers.

The player Benintendi is repeatedly compared to is Michael Conforto of the Mets. Both are young outfielders, first round picks, who made it up to the big leagues very quickly. In Conforto’s case, he was drafted in June of 2014 and was in the majors by July the following year. Benintendi took a month longer, but took essentially the same path, jumping directly from Double-A. And now for the bad news and then the good news. The bad news is Conforto struggled for almost his entire rookie season. The good news is, so far in this, his second season, he’s hit like the star the Mets thought he was last season. Sometimes there’s an adjustment period required for a young player, especially one who barely spent time in the minor leagues. When that adjustment period has to take place at the major league level and the growing pains the player experiences are hurting the major league team instead of say, the Double-A team, the fans and sometimes even the organization can be quick to dump on the player. That was the case with Conforto.

But even in that worst case scenario that Conforto went through, he has emerged as the star player he was thought to be last season. A lost season for Benintendi would be far from a good outcome, but we’re not there yet. So far he’s only had a bad couple weeks. In a normal season for an above average player, two bad weeks barely registers. Last year Mike Trout, had a two week stretch where he hit .220/.333/.340.

So, watch Benintendi’s performance going forward for line drives, watch to see if he keeps his low strikeout rate, watch to see how he handles his first bit of major league stress. These will the indicators of his slump, and how we’ll know he’s out of it. That and dingers. If he hits lots of dingers, we’ll know then too.

Photo by Jesse Johnson – USA TODAY Sports

Division Winners

Postseason

#hardware

• Four teams are unanimous picks for their division, with just the two-man carousel in the NL East and the AL West party getting different results.
• Of the Astros, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers, one’s gotta go. With our staff, it’s usually the Mariners. Sorry, Seattle.
• Devereaux says the AL MVP award should be named after Trout from now on, and I can’t disagree.
• He also said the NL Cy Young should just be named after Kershaw as well. See above reaction.
• Slavin’s Margot pick for NL ROY is, as he tells it, “the first dose of retribution for Trader Dave”. That one made me laugh.

I won’t make Trout’s case over Mookie — that’s been made by better and more illustrious writers than I elsewhere on the internet — except to say comparing anyone to Mike Trout is a fool’s errand. It’s baseball’s version of trying to make someone look bad by comparing them to Adolph Hitler. Problem is, nothing is as bad as Hitler. He’s the absolute worst, so anytime you bring him up you diminish your argument as well as make yourself look like an insensitive jerk. In his own way, Trout serves that purpose on the opposite end of the positive/negative spectrum. He is so, so good, and so, so young, and despite getting jobbed repeatedly by the baseball writers, he’s still got two MVP awards by age 25. 

If you’re a player, you can’t be Mike Trout, and if you’re a fan you can’t get Mike Trout. As great as it would be to see Trout in a Red Sox uniform, no silly trade proposal we can concoct on the internet is going to get it done. But we Red Sox fans have the next best thing. Literally the next best thing, as it turns out: Mookie Betts. Betts isn’t Trout, a point I hope I’ve driven home like who ever hits behind Mike Trout driving in Mike Trout. But like Trout, broadly speaking, Betts is very young, and very good at many different parts of his game. Even if he’ll never be Trout, that’s a good start.

One part though that stands out as a red flag in the argument against Mookie Betts as AL MVP (other than the really big red flag that reads “Mike Trout”) is found in Betts’ slash line. Let’s see if we can find it. In 2016 Betts hit .316/.363/.534. Each of those numbers is very good or better and when you put them together like Betts did they become all the more impressive, but the one that stands out as non-elite is the on-base percentage. When you pull up the leaderboards you find Mookie tied for 10th in the AL in that category. That might not be elite, but any time a player finishes in the top 10 of anything, that’s pretty good. Trout finished with .441 OBP, but considering I spent three paragraphs saying don’t comp anyone to Mike Trout, let’s looks at Josh Donaldson, who finished second with an OBP of .404. Only three AL players had OBPs over .400, and only four NL players managed to do it, but that’s seven guys who beat Betts by about 40 points of OBP. I’d argue that a .400 OBP is the dividing line between good and elite, and for all the good he did, Betts finished well below that line. 

There’s nothing that says a guy like Betts can’t improve, though, nothing that says he can’t reach that elite level. Betts just turned 24. His birthday is October 7, so he’ll be 24 all next season. Most 24-year-olds aren’t coming off a second place finish for AL MVP, so there’s that. But more than that, if there’s one thing we’ve seen from Mookie during the course of his short career, it’s an ability to improve, to learn, to adjust, to get better. He’s done it offensively, he’s done it on the bases, and maybe most impressively, he’s done it by going from a shortstop when drafted, to a second baseman in the upper minors, to a Gold Glove-winning right fielder in the major leagues. Some players move positions, but it’s usually because they couldn’t handle the old one. Betts moved because the team needed him to, and got better. 

Secondly, he came up through the Red Sox system with a reputation as a very patient hitter. We’ve seen Betts post some inhuman on-base percentages before in the minor leagues. In Single-A Greenville back in 2013, Betts posted a .418 OBP in 76 games. He was called up to High-A Salem and put up a .414 OBP in 51 games. Next season, in 54 games for Double-A Portland, his OBP was .443 and in 45 games for Pawtucket it was .417. Between 2012, his first full season in the minors and 2014 when he played 52 games for Boston (with a .368 OBP), Betts played for seven different teams. Only twice did he strike out more than he walked. Once was for Pawtucket in 2014 (30 strikeouts and 26 walks in 45 games) and the other came in 2013 for the Surprise Saguaros of the Arizona Fall League (nine walks and 10 strikeouts in 16 games). 

Point is, walks are a strength of Mookie Betts’ game! He’s always been a patient hitter, he’s always controlled the strike zone, and those two aspects in a players game are going to lead to walks. And those walks, plus Betts’ speed and ability to barrel up the ball, are going to lead to a big on-base percentage. Major League pitchers are a different animal of course, and that’s partly why Betts has changed his habits a bit since his time in Greenville and Portland. Perhaps those changes mean the Minor League version of Betts isn’t coming back. There’s a reason after all why Betts made the majors so quickly. He was much better than those minor league pitchers could handle, so perhaps, when faced with him, they tried to get him to chase and when he didn’t they’d just put him on. Walking him was preferable to giving up an extra base hit. That’s not the case in the majors where walking Betts meant facing David Ortiz with a fast runner on base. It makes sense that pitchers would be more willing to challenge Betts and considering their improved talent versus that of minor league pitchers, they’d have more success doing it. 

Mookie is still evolving as a hitter. Later in the season it seemed pitchers were less willing to challenge him with fastballs on the inside, where his power is, and more apt to throw him soft stuff on the outside, content to have him try to slap the ball the other way. Perhaps this represents another step in the evolving Book On Stopping Mookie. One thing about having six years in the majors, the book has already been written and studied. Betts’ has a bit over two years experience. Pitchers may still be getting used to him. He may need to continue adjusting in response. 

If part of pitchers’ response is to bust him away and outside the zone with breaking stuff to reduce his power, it says here and in the preceding paragraphs that the man will take those pitches, and happily trot down to first. That doesn’t mean the power numbers will drop either, it just means Mookie’s game is still being formed. And that’s a good thing. The elite OBP may yet be in there. So even if he’s not Mike Trout, there could be yet another gear to explore, and that’s an impressive thing considering we’re talking about the runner up for AL MVP.  

Photo by John Hefti/USA Today Sports Images

But no matter the focus, there is a problem with all Mike Trout trade proposals online. That is this: all Mike Trout trade proposals are an inherent Catch 22. Follow the logic here. 1) Your team wants to trade for Mike Trout because 2) Mike Trout will make your team better. To acquire Mike Trout, 3) your team has to trade so much value that giving all that up makes them substantially worse, thereby negating or severely weakening the impact Trout would have, at least in the short term. Chad Finn of the Boston Globe put it more succinctly: “For a trade to make sense for the Angels, it must devastate the team they’re trading with.” Teams that want to upgrade their roster usually don’t want to devastate it in the process. This is the rub.

For an example, let’s take the Dodgers. It’s been mentioned that the Dodgers could trade some combination, or all three, of Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Julio Urias for Trout. That’s great, and were the Angels looking to trade Trout, that might get them to the table. Except look at what that does to the Dodgers! All of a sudden they’re without their starting shortstop and, for a team desperately in need of starting pitching, their best pitching prospect. Yes, they’d have Mike Trout, who would be a nice upgrade on Pederson, but that still leaves two Wile E. Coyote-sized holes in the Dodgers roster, and that’s assuming the deal only took those three guys. I’m guessing it would take more than that.

Teams that want to upgrade their roster usually don’t want to devastate it in the process. This is the rub.

Then there are the Cubs. Everyone’s favorite suggestion is that the Cubs should center a trade offer around Kyle Schwarber. That’s great, except if you’re the Angels and you’re trading a 24 year old perennial MVP for an offer centered around an injured 24 year old with half a major league season under his belt. Ask yourself if you had Mike Trout, would you do that? Sure, the Cubs could also include Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and/or Addison Russell, but then they’d need a left fielder, a third baseman, and/or a shortstop. You can, I hope, start to see the problem.

It’s not that no workable offer could exist. It probably could. There are just more problems to overcome than usual. As Sam Miller pointed out on the Effectively Wild podcast, there aren’t a lot of trades done to begin with, so making one of this magnitude with these added issues, is especially difficult.

Adding to the difficulty is that, if they’re trading Mike Trout in this hypothetical, the Angels aren’t going to want to take on older players or players with only a few years of service time remaining. They’re going to want young players, either young stars or very promising prospects. In fact, strike that. They’re not going to want either young stars or very promising prospects, they’re going to want young stars AND very promising prospects. But they’re going to need to get them from a team that isn’t depending on them to win right now, and now we’re back to the rub.

Enter the Red Sox. The Red Sox are the rare team that could, if the deal was structured correctly, trade both high-end minor league talent, and high-end major league talent. Boston has impactful young talent at Mike Trout’s position as well as top minor league prospects that the organization isn’t depending on to the major league roster contribute this season. So let’s try and see how that might look.

If you’re trading for Mike Trout you have to start with perhaps the team’s best young and cheap player, and for the Red Sox that’s probably either Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts.

If you’re trading for Mike Trout you have to start with perhaps the team’s best young and cheap player, and for the Red Sox that’s probably either Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts. The problem with dealing Bogaerts is the Red Sox don’t have a ready replacement, unless you want to chance putting Marco Hernandez or Brock Holt at shortstop for 130 games plus the playoffs. So unless they’re getting a shortstop back, which they wouldn’t in this hypothetical, no to dealing Bogaerts. Betts, however, doesn’t represent such an issue. The Red Sox have other outfielders, and in fact, they’d be acquiring one in Trout who could step in and play Fenway’s expansive right field or displace Jackie Bradley to right and take over for him in center. Further, Betts was a 5.5 WARP player last season as a 22-year-old, is under team control until the 2020 season ends, and is making the major league minimum. That sounds like someone desirable who could step into the hole in the Angels outfield left by Trout and not suffer too much for the comparison. It also sounds like someone who the Red Sox could give up in such a deal.

The remainder would likely be filled out by prospects unless the Angels have some unusual demands, like they want Eduardo Rodriguez or something like that. That would present a problem, as the Red Sox would be forced to rely on lesser pitchers both now and in the future. But then they’d have Mike Trout, so there is that.

Christopher Crawford wrote an interesting piece at BP about acquiring Trout with just prospects and spoke to a front office member to confirm the validity of his offers. From the Red Sox perspective he offered Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Anderson Espinoza, and Andrew Benintendi. If you’re headlining with Betts as we are, maybe you can keep one of them off the list. Maybe you keep two off the list. I really don’t know how a deal like this would end up looking. The important part is that Crawford’s front office friend asked for a top-five prospect who, he said, has to be a position player, presumably for safety’s sake (pitchers tend to get hurt more frequently). The Red Sox can see that need with Moncada who is the fifth best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline and then add to that with other top prospects like Benintendi, Devers, or Espinoza.

Ultimately trading for Mike Trout would be a very tough needle to thread. The teams would both have to improve themselves by doing it, and that’s difficult when one is giving up Mike Trout and the other is giving up a Mike Trout’s worth of young stars and prospects. But if any team can do it, it’s the Red Sox led by Dave Dombrowski. A deal starting with Mookie Betts, as tough as it would be to give him up, seems the best first step forward for both teams. Then it’s just a matter of filling in the prospects, though that’s no small matter. Perhaps that’s where things break down. Or perhaps the Angels need more players from the major league roster, a request that could kill the desire of a team like the Red Sox who is looking to compete right now. These things are very difficult and this one is more difficult than most.

It sounds like, if both sides were willing, it could work. It would do immeasurable damage to one of the team’s best farm systems, but it would improve the Red Sox on the field. From the Angels perspective it would jumpstart their rebuilding effort something fierce, in addition to getting a borderline MVP candidate to take over for Trout. The Red Sox would get Mike Trout, perhaps the greatest player in a generation.

It would be quite a deal from just about any angle, which is how we know it’ll never happen.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

After a long and relaxing All-Star break, the well-rested Red Sox find themselves a surprising 6.5 games out of first place in the dismal AL East.  The Sox begin a crucial 17-game stretch, which, weather-permitting, will be the longest such run without an off day this year.  The disappointing Red Sox were only able to send one @BrockStar4Lyf to the surprisingly entertaining All-Star festivities even though Xander Bogaerts surely had the credentials to be in attendance.  Unfortunately Sox fans could not match the enthusiasm of the Kansas City voting machine and get the X-Man in on the final vote ballot.  Alas, as Bill Belichick would say, “We’re on to Los Angeles!”

Los Angeles Angels – Current Record: 48-40 – Projected Record: 89-73

After taking two of three from the division-leading Houston Astros in late June, the Angels began to play incredible baseball.  Over an 18-game stretch starting with that series, the Angels went 13-5, putting together four-game and five-game win streaks and by the All-Star break they had taken the division lead by half a game.  The Angels possess a top-heavy lineup that has their two-through-four hitters Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols accounting for 62 of the team’s 97 home runs.  Aside from that scary threesome the lineup lacks punch and has been succeeding thanks to a pitching staff that has been over-performing their peripherals all season.  This opponent is vulnerable, and certainly more beatable than their record suggests.

Probables

Wade Miley vs. C.J. Wilson, Friday, 10:05 p.m.

In his last start before the break Miley was absolutely demolished by the Yankees, giving up six earned runs to their lefty-heavy lineup.  That outcome was relatively surprising since Miley has a respectable .229 BAA vs LHB this season.  The Angels field a very righty-heavy lineup, but despite that Miley fared well against the team in May, having arguably his best start of the year twirling eight innings of one-run ball while striking out two.  Miley’s last start vs. the teams says he should perform well, but his performance vs. RHB this season says otherwise.  Miley has proven this year to be like a box of chocolates: you never know what you are going to get.

On the Angels side the 34-year-old Wilson has been a bit of a surprise this year, posting a 3.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, the latter of which is his best mark since 2011.  Last season Wilson was terrible and it looked like it might be curtains for him as a productive starter, but he’s been better in 2015.  Wilson continues to be prone to the occasional blow up but has mostly given his team a chance to win.  Last time versus the Sox he allowed four earned runs.  In this matchup I give the slight advantage to the Sox.

Rick Porcello vs. Garrett Richards, Saturday, 10:05 p.m.

I am not sure if I could have any less confidence in a starter than I have in Porcello at this point in the season.  With a 5.90 ERA, good enough for third worst in the league among qualified starters, his last “good” outing vs. Miami does little for me.  Last time out vs. the Angels he gave up seven earned runs, and there is little reason beyond sheer probability for me to believe anything will be different this time out.

Richards has only given up four or more runs in three out of his 16 starts this year, but nonetheless he has not looked like his usual dominant self.  Off-season knee surgery has perhaps hindered him, but the biggest difference seems to be his reluctance to throw the sinker much at all this year.  His usage of the pitch has regressed from 28% to just 14% and as a result his four-seam, which has not lost velocity, has been getting hit much harder.  I still like Richards infinitely more in this contest than I do the 82.5-million-dollar man.

Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Hector Santiago, Sunday, 8.00 p.m.

Get excited: the Red Sox will be appearing on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, all because America is itching to see Eddy Rodriguez take on Mike Trout!  Oh wait, that’s just me. America clearly only cares about Trout but I won’t let that ruin my fun.  The pitch-tipping young lefty will get his chance to test his stuff vs. two of the game’s best hitters in Trout and Albert Pujols and has the tools to give them fits.  Rodriguez comes into the game with a .222 BAA vs RHB and a .174 BAA on the road.  This matchup should give the nation a chance to see the Red Sox’s talented lefty more than hold his own.

If you would have told me before the season that Hector Santiago would have been at the 2015 All-Star game I would have asked you, “Oh yeah? How much did he pay for a ticket?”  The season of the horseshoe and rabbit’s foot continues for Santiago, who brings an improbable 2.33 ERA into the game despite his 4.33xFIP.  With a .244 BABIP and 88.9 LOB% I am betting that the Sox’s bats will find a way to score some runs.

Opposing Lineup

With Collin Cowgill on the DL the Angels have no choice but to keep running Matt Joyce out there with his sub Mendoza line batting average.  The defense also takes a hit from his presence in left field, and Aybar and Giavotella are not much more than slap hitters at this point.  With the Angels having just 25 stolen bases on the year, good enough for second fewest, even when these weaker hitters do get on base there is not much risk of them running.

Johnny Giavotella – 2B – R
Kole Calhoun – RF – L
Mike Trout – CF – R
Albert Pujols – RF – R
Erick Aybar – SS – S
David Freese – 3B – R
C.J Cron – DH – R
Matt Joyce – LF – L
Carlos Perez – C – R

The name of the game will be pitching around Trout and Pujols and forcing the rest of the sub-par lineup to beat you.  Overall this lineup ranks 16^th in baseball in runs scored, 18^th in team batting average, and tied with the Sox for 15^th in slugging percentage.  It is simply not a very dangerous lineup.

Recap

The nation, and most of Red Sox nation, will likely tune in this week if only to watch the incomparable Mike Trout in action.  I do believe the Sox have a very good chance of taking two of the first three games in this set with Wade Miley and Eduardo Rodriguez facing off against pitchers with their fair share of warts.  Overall the Red Sox lineup is deep enough to expose these flaws and should produce.

Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images

Los Angeles Angels – Current Record: 21-20 – Projected Record: 89-73

The Angels were the class of the American League West last season, and entered 2015 projected to repeat that success. Although they’ve played better lately, the Angels have been held back by poor hitting throughout the season. They’re tied for last in baseball in true average (.247), and aside from Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout have received sub-par performances throughout their order. The offense suffered another setback Wednesday night when Albert Pujols left the game against the Toronto Blue Jays after being struck on the hand by a fastball. He is day-to-day with a bruised hand. Keeping the Angels afloat is their starting pitching, which ranks among the best in baseball with a 3.48 team ERA. This weekend they bring the top of their rotation to Fenway Park to face one of baseball’s worst offenses of late.

Probables

Rick Porcello vs. Garrett Richards, Friday, 7:10 p.m.

The Sox and Angels open their three-game set with a matchup between, dare I say it, aces. If nothing else, Rick Porcello and Garrett Richards have been their respective team’s most reliable starter over the past month. The Red Sox have won in Porcello’s last five starts, with the right-hander posting a FIP under three in three of his last four outings. Porcello outdueled Seattle’s Felix Hernandez in his last start Saturday, holding the Mariners to two runs on five hits with six strikeouts over 6.2 innings in a 4-2 Sox win. Porcello is throwing more fastballs – he threw 44 on Saturday, 32 of which went for strikes – and has upped his K/9 to 7.82 while improving his BABIP to .295 thanks to this current stretch.

Richards’ last start at Fenway Park was also his last of the season in 2014. The righty tore his left patellar tendon while trying to cover first base Aug. 20 against the Sox, resulting in a knee surgery that ended what was a stellar season. Richards returned from the injury April 19 and has been strong ever since. He’s tossed 39.1 worry-free innings through six starts, posting a 3.09 FIP, .220 BABIP and averaging 8.24 strikeouts and 0.23 home runs per nine innings. Richards is coming off his deepest outing of the season Sunday in Baltimore, lasting 7.2 innings after giving up two runs on five hits. He’s clearly picked up where he left off last year.

Steven Wright vs. C.J. Wilson, Saturday, 7:15 p.m.

With Justin Masterson placed on the disabled list, Steven Wright finally got his chance to establish himself as a mainstay in the major leagues. He proved Sunday he’s at least capable of being the Sox’ fifth starter for now. The knuckleballer allowed three runs on five hits over five innings, while maintaining decent location on his unpredictable signature pitch. According to PITCHf/x, Wright threw 52 of his 80 knuckleballs for strikes, while issuing just one walk as the Mariners put just 16 balls in play. That should be enough to produce wins once the Red Sox’ offense gets going again.

C.J. Wilson is clearly the more established of Saturday’s two starters, and he’s proven that sentiment with a strong start to the season that’s exceeded preseason projections. Wilson holds a 3.12 FIP while posting quality starts in five of his eight outings. One of those rare below-average performances came in his latest start Monday in Toronto. Wilson gave up four runs on 10 hits over five innings, ending a string of five straight starts of two runs or fewer.

Wade Miley vs. Hector Santiago, Sunday, 1:35 p.m.

Wade Miley’s allowed a combined 20 hits over his last three starts, but left those games with LOB%s of 80.7 percent, 100 percent and 75 percent. Miley’s had nothing but odd success lately, but it’s been success nonetheless, something that’s contributed to a significant turnaround for the righty. Miley has a 3.04 ERA over his last four starts and has thrown at least six innings in each of those outings. While he’s gotten himself in plenty of trouble despite his success over the last month, Miley’s used his fastball to end those threats, as was the case Tuesday against the Rangers. On two separate occasions Miley produced inning-ending strikeouts with two runners on base with a fastball that touched 94 miles per hour and, according to PITCHf/x, went for 17 strikes not in play on 36 pitches.

The Red Sox are getting the best of the Angels’ rotation this weekend, and it ends with the team’s leader in ERA (2.25) and K/9 (8.25): Hector Santiago. At 27 years old, Santiago is on pace for the best season of his career. The lefty has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his eight starts this season, his most recent being two-run (one earned), four-hit performance over seven innings Tuesday against the Blue Jays. But there’s a reason PECOTA projected Santiago to finish the season with a 4.16 ERA. As his 4.10 FIP and 87 percent LOB% suggests, he’s prone to giving up plenty of hits, but finds a way out of those jams. That’ll likely not rear its ugly head Sunday given the Sox’ recent troubles with runners in scoring position.

Opposing Lineup

The Angels boast a righty-heavy lineup. So even with all right-handed pitching this weekend, the Sox starters will probably see no more than three lefties at a time from LA throughout the series. Here is a common lineup the Angels use, assuming Pujols plays this weekend. If he’s out, expect either C.J. Cron to DH, or Trout to DH while Collin Cowgill mans center field, as was the case Thursday night.

Erick Aybar – SS – R

Mike Trout – CF – R

Albert Pujols – DH – R

Kole Calhoun – RF – L

David Freese – 3B – R

Marc Krauss – 1B – L

Matt Joyce – LF – L

Chris Iannetta – C – R

Johnny Giavotella – 2B – R

With the exception of Pujols, who is posting career-low numbers in all offensive categories, including a .231 batting average and .268 TAv to go with his (0.3) WARP, the Angels have received consistent production from Erick Aybar, Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun at the top of the order. But LA lacks an offensive threat beyond its first four hitters, which is good news for a Sox pitching staff that’s finally turning the corner.

Recap

The only way the Red Sox have success this weekend is if the offense figures itself out, because they’ll see the best of the Angels’ rotation this weekend. Expect a trio of low-scoring games, unless a starter – likely one on the Sox  – has a bad day. But no matter what, you should enjoy this weekend. Watching Mike Trout play is always fun.