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	<title>Boston &#187; Minnesota Twins</title>
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	<description>Bringing BP-quality analysis to Boston</description>
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		<title>Game 54 Recap: Twins 2, Red Sox 0</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/04/game-54-recap-twins-2-red-sox-0/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/04/game-54-recap-twins-2-red-sox-0/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2015 11:00:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Collins]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[No Offense Ever]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Momentum is just an idea. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ho-hum. Another no-show by the offense.</p>
<p><strong>Top Play (WPA): </strong>To the surprise of no one, the top play from this game was the one that resulted in the first and deciding run. In the top of the second, with Eddie Rosario on second, Chris Herrmann hit a double off the Green Monster (0.106) to drive in the first run of the game. Although it wouldn&#8217;t have changed the result, it was one of a few plays in which Carlos Peguero looked downright Hanley-like out in left field. Luckily for the Red Sox, Rick Porcello would settle down after this inning. Unfortunately, it wouldn&#8217;t matter.</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Play (WPA): </strong>Boston&#8217;s offense was unable to get any runs across the plate, and only threatened to do so once. In the bottom of the third inning, Peguero and Dustin Pedroia put together a two-out rally and set up a second and third situation for Brock Holt. The Red Sox&#8217;s super utility man couldn&#8217;t take advantage of the situation. He grounded out to shortstop (-0.069) (nice) to end the rally. Boston wouldn&#8217;t put another runner on base all night.</p>
<p><b>Key Moment: </b>It&#8217;s hard to find a key moment in a game that had very few actual moments. Holt&#8217;s ground out is really the only possibility here, as it&#8217;s the only time the Red Sox offense had any semblance of a pulse, and the only time we had the illusion of something positive happening.</p>
<p><strong>Trends to Watch: </strong>The first trend to discuss is Boston&#8217;s perpetually disappointing offense. Remember when they scored six runs in the afternoon game? Yeah, that didn&#8217;t last long. After making Mike Pelfrey look like Pedro Martinez on Tuesday, the Red Sox made Trevor May look like Randy Johnson last night. At some point, the talent in this lineup has to win out, but there haven&#8217;t been any signs of that coming in the near future.</p>
<p>On a more positive note, Rick Porcello had a much-needed strong outing. After two consecutive rough starts, he put the home run issues behind him and strung together eight good innings. He struggled with hard contact a bit in the first two innings, but was great for the next six. As Boston&#8217;s rotation continues to evolve, it&#8217;ll need more performances like this from Porcello if it&#8217;s going to be a successful unit.</p>
<p><strong>Coming Next: </strong>The Red Sox and Twins finish off their series tomorrow afternoon with Steven Wright facing off against Tommy Milone. Wright has been surprisingly solid in his spot starts, and is likely fighting for a permanent role with Joe Kelly now that Eduardo Rodriguez has likely taken claim of a permanent spot of his own. Milone, meanwhile, could be the perfect pitcher to snap Boston&#8217;s lineup out of his slump.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Game 52 Recap: Red Sox 1, Twins 0</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/03/game-52-recap-red-sox-1-twins-0/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/03/game-52-recap-red-sox-1-twins-0/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2015 12:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Teeter]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clay Buchholz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Double-plays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rusney Castillo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1184</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Clay Buchholz was excellent, the offense did just enough and the Red Sox won a game. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="western">Backed by excellent pitching from Clay Buchholz and Koji Uehara and just enough offense, the Red Sox earned a win to start their series with the Twins.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Top Play (WPA): </b>In the bottom of the 7<sup>th</sup> inning with the score still tied at zero, the Red Sox scratched across the game&#8217;s only run, and did it all with two outs. Xander Bogaerts doubled to center, Sandy Leon then walked, bringing Rusney Castillo to the plate. Castillo battled Mike Pelfrey, eventually singling a 1-2 92 mph sinker up the middle scoring Bogaerts (WPA: + .180). Leon, with a poor base running decision, tried to go first-to-third on the single but was thrown out by Twins&#8217; center fielder Aaron Hicks to end the inning.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Bottom Play (WPA): </b>Coming into the game the Red Sox were third in baseball in grounding into double plays with 46. David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez lead the team with seven, which had them tied for the fourth most in the game with ten other players. Well, last night Ortiz got his eighth and took the team lead in what was the game&#8217;s bottom play. In the 6<sup>th</sup> inning Dustin Pedroia led things off with a single, and then Mookie Betts advanced him to second with a single of his own. Ortiz then grounded into a double play, advancing Pedroia to third (WPA: &#8211; .139). Hanley Ramirez then flew out to the gap in left field on a ball that looked like it had a chance to do damage but the cold night knocked it down, ultimately ending the inning.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Key Moment: </b>The next batter to come to the plate after Rusney Castillo had given the Red Sox the lead in the bottom of the 7<sup>th</sup> was the Twins&#8217; Aaron Hicks in the top of the 8<sup>th</sup> inning. He drove a 1-1 Buchholz curveball to deep right field that appeared destined to knot the game at one. But Castillo comfortably tracked it back to the wall and hauled it in for the first out of the inning. Check it out <a href="http://m.redsox.mlb.com/bos/video/v141931883/minbos-castillo-makes-a-grab-on-the-warning-track/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Trend to Watch: </b>It has gotten to the point where Clay Buchholz cannot be lumped into any of the &#8216;Red Sox rotation is junk&#8217; discussions. If you give him a mulligan for his April 12<sup>th</sup> start against the Yankees (3.1 IP, 10 R, 9 ER), his ERA drops all the way from the 4.33 it was going into last night to 3.16, which is much more in line with the 3.06 FIP (3.15 xFIP) he has this season. Buchholz has put together a really solid run of great starts. Here are his last five (including last night):</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p class="western">8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 8 SO</p>
</li>
<li>
<p class="western">7.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 4 SO</p>
</li>
<li>
<p class="western">7.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO</p>
</li>
<li>
<p class="western">8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 11 SO</p>
</li>
<li>
<p class="western">6.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 3 SO</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p class="western">Unfortunately, in those five starts the Red Sox offense has managed run totals of 1, 1, 1, 1 and 6. With the latest bleak offensive showing last night Buchholz saw his number of 2015 starts with 0-2 runs of support increase to seven, which has him near the top of <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/JML12" target="_blank">this season&#8217;s leaderboard</a>. Ideally Buchholz continues his string of good outings (and <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/21/clay-buchholzs-deceptively-strong-2015/" target="_blank">generally solid season</a>), and the offense starts pumping in some runs in support of his efforts.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Coming next: </b>The Sox will wrap up their series with the Twins in a double-header tomorrow. In the first game, Eduardo Rodriguez will make his second big league start. He was excellent in his debut against the Rangers last Thursday. With another solid outing he could lock himself into a rotation spot for the foreseeable future. The Twins counter with Phil Hughes, who last time out against the Red Sox allowed four runs in 6.2 innings of work. The four runs were the Red Sox largest offensive output against these Twins last week. In Game 2 Rick Porcello will look to get back on track after his ugly outing in Minnesota last Wednesday in which he allowed six runs, and walked as many batters as he struck out (2). The Twins will send right-hander Trevor May to the mound to battle the Red Sox lineup. May sports a Red Sox-like 5.07 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.10 FIP supported by his 41:9 K:BB ratio. Sweeping the double-header would be a good way for this team to keep things moving in the right direction.</p>
<p class="western"><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Game 46 Recap: Twins 2, Red Sox 1</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/27/game-46-recap-twins-2-red-sox-1/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/27/game-46-recap-twins-2-red-sox-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2015 11:56:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Collins]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clay Buchholz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pablo Sandoval]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1081</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It's gonna be a long season, isn't it? ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Another good outing from Clay Buchholz. Another no-show by the offense.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Top Play (WPA): </b>As both of the Twins runs were scored in the first inning, it&#8217;s no surprise the two scoring plays came in at one and two in WPA. The first came when Trevor Plouffe smacked a double down the right-field line (.093) to score Brian Dozier. Kurt Suzuki, the next batter, knocked in Plouffe with a hard-hit double down the left-field line (.087). Although Minnesota’s offense stagnated after that strong frame, it was enough to hold off Boston’s dismal offense.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Bottom Play (WPA): </b>Boston’s problem hasn’t been getting players on base. They have a decent amount of scoring chances, they just haven’t been able to convert them. Exhibit A is the worst play of the game by WPA. After getting shut down by starter Mike Pelfrey, the Red Sox were able to load the bases against Blaine Boyer in the eighth. Hanley Ramirez came up with two outs and a chance to give the Red Sox a late lead. Instead, he hit a routine fly ball to right field (-.176) to end the inning and the threat.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Key Moment: </b>The key moment here came in that eighth inning, one play before Ramirez’s inning-ending fly out. With lefty Glen Perkins coming in to face Sandoval, Boston’s third baseman elected to once again hit from the left side. Though he didn’t hit it hard, he smacked a grounder to the right side that looked like it would sneak through and score Pedroia to tie the game. Instead, Dozier made a nice sliding stop and kept the ball in the infield. Sandoval would reach on an infield single, but Pedroia was forced to stay at third and the Twins preserved the lead.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Trends to Watch: </b>Once again, the Red Sox got a solid performance from their pitching staff that was squandered by an underperforming offense. While Pelfrey’s ERA looks good this year, his peripherals tell a different story. Boston should have been able to do damage off of him. Instead, they managed just five hits off of him, two of which came from number nine hitter Sandy Leone.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> In a more positive trend to watch, Buchholz looked very good outside of the first inning. He’s now in a four-game stretch in which he’s allowed no more than two runs and has a K/BB ratio a shade below 4.0 on the season. Possibly even more encouraging was that he managed to pitch this well without his best stuff. He was noticeably struggling at times, and got some help from his defense, but he powered through without his A-game and still did everything he could to get the team a win. If the Red Sox are going to compete this year, they need a couple of their starters to step up, and Buchholz is certainly doing his part lately.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Coming Next: </b>The Red Sox look to avoid the sweep this afternoon with Rick Porcello facing off against Phil Hughes. Porcello is coming off a horrid start last time out, but looked like he was hitting his stride before that. Boston needs to hope the start against the Angels was just a blip. Hughes, meanwhile, has been very homer prone this year, and could be just what the doctor ordered for a struggling offense. The team will travel to Texas after this afternoon’s contest.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><em>Photo by Jesse Johnson/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Game 45 Recap: Twins 7, Red Sox 2</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/26/game-45-recap-twins-7-red-sox-2/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/26/game-45-recap-twins-7-red-sox-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2015 11:00:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ben Carsley]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1064</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hopefully you didn't plan your Memorial Day around watching this stinker. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two steps forward, one giant, awful step back.</p>
<p><b>Top Play (WPA)</b>: The top three plays by WPA all belonged to the Twins. Eduardo Nunez doubled in the first to drive in Eduardo Escobar (.124) to lead the way, while Trevor Plouffe’s three-run blast in the second (.090) made it 7-0 and all but ended this game before it was even a third of the way over. Brian Dozier’s double to lead off the game (.057) rounds out the top three, and should demonstrate how ineffective Joe Kelly was from the get-go.</p>
<p><b>Bottom Play (WPA):</b> Hanley Ramirez grounded into a double play in the top of the first inning (-.086). It’s always a good sign when your most prominent chance to score is squandered in the first inning, especially when Ricky Nolasco is the opposing starter! At least through failing to put many runners on base, the Red Sox didn’t torture us by squandering baserunner after baserunner in scoring position. Such is the sad silver lining we must look for.</p>
<p>The next three worst plays by WPA all came courtesy of the Red Sox as well: David Ortiz’s flyout in the first (-.051), Xander Bogaerts’ strikeout in the second (-.037) and Daniel Nava’s flyout in second (-.034).</p>
<p><b>Key Moment</b>: The entire bottom of the second was really the key moment in this one. Plouffe’s homerun transformed this outing from “maybe Kelly will escape” to “oh dear god this is a disaster,” so perhaps that should be the winner here.</p>
<p><b>Trends to Watch</b>: How many more times can the Red Sox let Joe Kelly start? Yes, his two appearances before this one were quite good, but Kelly is way too prone to blow-ups to trust and hitters are making consistent hard contact against him. Kelly now has a 6.24 ERA and while his FIP is down at 4.53, he’s not even an average MLB starter right now. Kelly should consider himself lucky that Justin Masterson was even worse than he’s been, because in most organizations Kelly would be out of a job right now.</p>
<p>Hanley Ramirez’s incredible, amazingly, stupendously poor defense is another trend that’s becoming quite aggravating to watch. From the way he saunters after balls to his lack of range to the long, exaggerated windup he uses to throw the ball back in the general vicinity of the infield, Ramirez is a mess with the glove. This probably isn’t David Ortiz’s last year, but it’s tough to see how the Sox are going to go another 280+ games pretending that Hanley can be an outfielder.</p>
<p><b>Coming Next</b>: Clay Buchholz takes the mound against Mike Pelfrey tonight, and while Buchholz has been quite good as of late, so has Pelfrey. Yes, that was a strange sentence to type. With Pablo Sandoval back in the swing of things, the Sox should be able to put their best lineup forward, and they’ll likely need to given the Twins’ surprising offensive prowess so far this year. If nothing else, ensuring that this game is competitive into the fourth or fifth inning would be great.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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