But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.

Johnson’s journey has been tumultuous. He has dealt with physical injuries to his elbow, shoulder, leg, and even his head/brain, after getting hit in the head by a batted ball on more than one occasion. He also battled through a period of depression and anxiety in 2016, and both conditions require persistent attention to manage their impact. As if all of that wasn’t enough, Johnson was held at gunpoint in a car-jacking following the 2015 season. He has been through a lot, but is still fighting for a big league opportunity. One wonders how much time he has left to prove himself.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Similar to how Carson Smith’s big positive in 2017 was getting back out on a major league mound, Johnson’s huge step forward was getting back to competing at a high-level after having dealt with all the physical injuries and mental health concerns I mentioned above. He made 23 starts, totaling 120 innings last year: one at Low-A, 17 at Triple-A, and five with the big league club. That is pretty solid output from a guy whose career was not certain to continue a year ago.

It’s important to note that he didn’t just take the ball 23 times and muddle his way through starts. He often pitched well: in his 17 starts for Pawtucket, he posted a 3.18 RA9. His 4.19 FIP suggests he had some help in posting that nice runs-allowed number, but that is to be expected from a pitcher of Johnson’s ilk. He does not overpower batters. His fastball sits in the high 80s, and at the Triple-A/Major League levels, he has a 19.3 strikeout rate, which places him in the bottom third of the leaderboards. As such, he relies on his defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. This was evident when he got to pitch in front of Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. on May 27th at Fenway Park.

Mookie keeping Nelson Cruz in the yard:

Jackie robbing Cruz of a hit:

Johnson’s complete game shutout in May was just the sixth such outing at Fenway Park in the last five years. Interestingly, while I pointed out Johnson’s reliance on his defenders, he recorded eight strikeouts that day; a total he has reached or exceeded only nine other times in his 103 career starts at any professional level. It was a special day, and certainly a high point in Johnson’s career to date.

WHAT WENT WRONG

Unfortunately, other than that outing against the Mariners, Johnson was not very good for the Red Sox in 2017. Take it out of the equation and you find his other starts amounted to a 6.50 RA9 (6.66 FIP). That is a long way from the strong showings he had at Triple-A. Pitching in the majors is a big jump from the minors and a pitcher who relies on strict control and allowing contact can run into problems quickly against big league hitters.

Johnson’s other issue in 2017 was more injuries and bad luck. The injury problem was to his shoulder, which is never a good thing for a pitcher. He was forced to leave his start against the Phillies after just 2.2 innings due to shoulder discomfort, and things were already not going well: four hits, one walk, and three runs, including a home run. The discomfort was eventually diagnosed as a shoulder impingement and resulted in another trip to the disabled list for Johnson.

After working his way back with a month of solid performances for the PawSox, he was hit on the leg by a batted ball in his August 16th start and forced to leave after just one perfect inning. He made his next start (and two more, pitching well in two of the three), so ultimately, the injury was not serious. Just another example of the sort of bad luck that seems to follow Johnson around.

WHAT TO EXPECT

On another team, Johnson might be slotted into the 4th/5th spot in the rotation, but on the Red Sox, there is no room for him. Even if a spot opens up due to injury, it is not certain that Johnson will be the guy who is called on. He will be competing with Roenis Elias, Hector Velazquez, Jalen Beeks, and maybe even Steven Wright for the chance. As such, Johnson will head into 2018 in much the same way he has started the last few seasons: just on the outside of the big league rotation. Barring a trade this offseason, Johnson will again spend the majority of the season pitching for Pawtucket, working to demonstrate that his crafty stuff can consistently get major league hitters out.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

This time, the Red Sox travel to the rainy Pacific Northwest to take on a team that got plenty of love in the spring, as a fair number of people saw them as AL West pennant winners. For the first time this season on Weekend Preview, here are the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle Mariners – Current Record: 15-19 – Projected Record: 83-79

The Mariners, perhaps tired of being stuck in the middle of the Western pack for the last few years, attempted a jump-start this offseason with the signing of Nelson Cruz to being their primary DH. Along with Cruz’s signing, the emergence of a good bullpen was all but expected to happen, as Seattle’s front office stuffed it with with a lot of high velo, lots-of-movement relievers. With their starting pitching being their rock, the Mariners looked to finally push themselves over the hill and win their first pennant since 2001. Has it worked? The Cruz signing, for the most part, has paid off handsomely so far. The bullpen? Not so much. Slumps from Seattle regulars haven’t helped, and now the Mariners are looking up at .500.

Probables

Clay Buchholz vs. J.A. Happ, Friday, 10:10 p.m. EDT

Good news, everyone! Clay Buchholz has the most promising peripherals of his major league career! If only his 5.73 ERA could change to show it. They say beauty is only skin-deep, but the more I look into Buchholz’s stats, the more I like it. A 10.27 K/9, a 3.09 FIP, and a 10.9% swinging strike rate should cut that ERA down to size in no time, with the added benefit of  an insanely high .393 BABIP coming down as well. His LOB% is 62.3%. That’s almost Wade Miley-level bad, and – stop me if you’ve heard this before – due for a little rebound. Buchholz has a chance to be really good for the rest of the season. Just give the man time and starts. On the other hand, his hairstyle deserves to take some flak.

On the surface, J.A. Happ seems like back-end rotation filler. A middling K/9, a BB/9 in the “meh” range, inconsistent grounder generation, and an FIP that hasn’t seen the low side of a 4.00 in his career. For 2015, however, Happ is well on his way to posting the best season of his career. His BB/9 has been cut in half & sits at 1.88, his FIP is at a solid 3.46, and he’s posted the highest groundball rate of his career at 44%. Maybe he really did need to move out of the Rogers Centre. We’ll have to wait & see if that 78% LOB% falls, but a 32/8 K/BB certainly doesn’t hurt his chances of being decent in 2015, if not simply good.

Rick Porcello vs. Felix Hernandez, May 9th, 9:10 p.m. EDT

Could Rick Porcello have finally found his groove? The man has allowed just four runs in the last 19 innings (3 starts), with a 15/3 K/BB. Not only that, Porcello has improved in the the most crucial statistical area: zero home runs allowed in that span, as opposed to the six dingers he allowed in his first four starts. Sure, he’s not getting his prescribed dose of wormburners yet, as his GB% sits at a relatively lousy 41.9%, but the good news is that everything else that made him look terrible early on is coming back down to earth. Rick Porcello is finally starting to look like the Rick Porcello the Sox were expecting.

No preview of Felix Hernandez is really complete without a kiloton of superlatives. He marks all the boxes off on the Good Pitcher Checklist: strikes out a lot of guys (9.25 K/9), doesn’t walk many (1.48 BB/9), gets grounders (59.8%), and keeps the ball in the yard (0.74). Unsurprisingly, Hernandez and his 1.85 ERA is well on his way to being a strong Cy Young candidate once again. You can see the .244 BABIP and say he’s gotten lucky, sure, but then you see that only 13% of batted balls he’s allowed have been line drives. Regression? I’m not gonna put a bet on that horse. The Red Sox are coming at the King, and they best not miss.

Steven Wright vs. James Paxton, May 10th, 4:10 p.m. EDT

You know what you’re getting with Wright: knuckleballs and more knuckleballs. Just be prepared to see a heaping helping of walks and grounders with strange spins. Wright is hard to predict, as knuckleballers usually are, but the only solace I can give you here is that he’s not soft-tossing Justin Masterson. That alone should give you some hope. Sure, Wright’s fastball goes only 84 MPH, but when you use that pitch only 2% of the time, velocity isn’t gonna be important. Keeping the knuckler low and moving is the name of the game.

Paxton hasn’t had the best start to the season, and he hasn’t really helped himself out a whole lot either. His K/9 sits a shade under 8, which is good, but a 3.69 BB/9 and a 1.13 HR/9 have torpedoed his season thus far. The southpaw thrived the last two seasons by keeping baseballs in the yard, but Paxton seems to have lost control of that this year. All of that has resulted in a 4.31 ERA with a 4.23 FIP. You’d hope that he’d improve, but after looking at those numbers, there’s not much he can do when it comes to luck. Paxton simply has to pitch better, like he’s done the last few starts, or he’ll be stuck in the back end of a rotation.

Opposing Lineup

The Sox aren’t rolling out any lefty starters this weekend, so what we saw on Thursday is what we’re likely to get from here on out.

Seth Smith – RF – L – .267/.327/.456, .299 TAv
Brad Miller – LF – L – .253/.318/.424, .309 TAv
Robinson Cano – 2B – L – .268/.311/.370, .288 TAv
Nelson Cruz – DH – R – .361/.414/.744, .432 TAv
Kyle Seager – 3B – L – .246/.299/.405, .277 TAv
Logan Morrison – 1B – L – .237/.313/.432, .290 TAv
Mike Zunino – C – L – .180/.245/.370, .225 TAv
Dustin Ackley – CF – L – .191/.213/.326, .206 TAv
Chris Taylor – SS – R – .143/.200/.143, .135 TAv (in 30 PA)

The Mariners can go pretty lefty-heavy, and the loss of Austin Jackson to injury has made that even more apparent. While you can fear the 3-6 spots of that lineup, the rest is relatively terror-free, as long as you can keep Zunino from teeing off and pitch inside to Seth Smith.

Recap

Unlike the last weekend, don’t expect all of the runs here. Both offenses are struggling, and both teams will run out pitchers who can easily deny them from touching home plate. You may want to avert your eyes from the Sox offense when they face Hernandez on Saturday, but all-in-all, the Red Sox have a good chance at leaving the West Coast with a winning record for the first time in a long while.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images