Fernando Abad made minor history this offseason when he became the first player under the current ownership group to go to arbitration with the Red Sox. He wanted $2.7 million, the Red Sox felt he was worth $2 million, and, on the last day of January, the team notched its first victory of the season when the arbitrator ruled in their favor — saving $700K that they’d otherwise have to sell, like, five beers to make back. The horrors.

Will things get better for the bullpen lefty in 2017? Let’s find out.

What went right in 2016

A lot went right for Abad in 2016. He started the season in Minnesota on a minor league deal and ended up on first-place Boston after a summer trade for right-handed flamethrower Pat Light. A lefty specialist and journeyman, Abad put up a 2.65 ERA over 34 innings for the Twins, holding left-handed batters to a .163/.192/.265 line before the deal and holding opponents to a 45.2 percent ground ball rate.

What want wrong in 2016

Abad’s success in Minnesota didn’t translate to the Red Sox. He only pitched in 12.7 innings for Boston, but over that span his ERA ballooned to 6.39 as his ground ball rate fell just enough (to 38 percent) to do some real damage to his overall line. Virtually homer-proof for the Twins (0.5 HR/9), he gave up some dongers in Boston that pushed him to 1.5 HR/9, though he did increase his K/9 by nearly a full point. These are very small sample size issues, but they likely cost Abad quite a bit in arbitration. Sad!

What to expect in 2017

Especially at his discounted price, there’s a lot to like from Abad here. Last year’s Robbie Ross-or-bust approach to lefty relievers is blissfully a thing of the past, and if Abad can simply revert to the average stats of his peripatetic career — 3.71 ERA, 41 percent ground ball rate — he can be a valuable piece of a Sox team that most certainly wants its lefties to induce ground balls. At the very worst, Abad is a headline writer’s dream, a pun generator par excellence. That’s Agood thing.

Photo by Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Pat Light (RHP) and Henry Owens (LHP)

It’s been a weird year for Pat Light. Light made a single major league appearance at the end of April and then got another audition when the entire Red Sox bullpen was inwardly collapsing upon itself in early July. To date, those appearances haven’t gone so well. In the ridiculous 21-2 blowout at the hands of the Angels on July 2, Light allowed six runs (five earned) on five hits. The game already well out of hand by that time, John Farrell rather mercilessly left Light on the mound for a difficult 1.2 innings.

Light was sent back to Pawtucket after the game and reentered the Triple-A bullpen. When not at the major league level, he’s been very effective this season, posting a 2.22 ERA across 22 appearances, striking out 34 in 28.1 innings. Opponents have hit just .168 against him and he has amassed a 1.16 WHIP. While the Pat Light Experience in the majors has thus far been disappointing, he has been impressive at the Triple-A level. Considering that the big league club cannot seem to keep more than two relievers healthy and effective at the same time (praying for you, Koji), Light may just get another chance.

Let’s check back in on Henry Owens, shall we? A couple summers ago, the left-hander impressed at every stop in the minors and had Sox fans eagerly awaiting his Fenway debut. Then, 2016 came, and he forgot how to throw strikes. After debuting to tolerable results a year ago (a 4.57 ERA in 11 starts), Owens has made three starts for the Red Sox in 2016, accruing a WIP of 1.05 — that’s not a typo, that’s just walks per inning pitched. Owens walked more than a batter per inning.

He hasn’t been bad since being sent to Pawtucket, registering a 4.07 ERA and holding hitters to a .207 batting average against him. Unfortunately, the walks have remained a problem. He’s allowed 66 hits but surrendered 60 free passes to boot.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though! Owens’ last start was a very impressive one, as he took a no-hitter into the 8th inning on July 16. After getting two outs and hitting a batter, Owens allowed an infield single and walked a man to load the bases. The lanky lefty was pulled, and reliever Chandler Shepherd gave up a double that plated all three runners. So while his line showed 7.2 innings and three earned runs, he was even better than that. More importantly, his walks were down, issuing just two free passes while striking out four.

After the addition of a fourth solid starter in Drew Pomeranz, the window may be shutting for minor league starters to gain big-league opportunities this season. But if the team can’t find a fifth starter among the motley crew of Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz and Sean O’Sullivan, another minor league pitcher like Owens could get have an opportunity down the stretch.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF):

It’s easy to forget about the foolhardy $72.5 million investment the team made in Castillo considering that two of the team’s outfielders started the All-Star game last week. It’s hard not to think that Castillo, given the price tag, could and should have been the third member of a dynamic and potentially league-best outfield. Instead, as we know, the Cuban transplant has flopped. Hard. Castillo is currently hitting .230 with an OPS of .591 in Pawtucket. He has only two homers and 19 RBIs on the season.

Double-A Portland: Yoan Moncada (2B) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

So, uh, this dude is really good. You may have seen him wallop a homer out of Petco Park in the Futures game last week en route to winning the game’s MVP award. Well, he wasn’t finished. Moncada went out and hit two more bombs Monday night, giving him six in his past 12 games. As Jared Carrabis pointed out, Moncada’s slugging percentage in July (.952) is higher than the OPS of almost everyone else at Double-A. In this 12-game span, Moncada is slashing .405/.528/.952, improving his line on the season at Double-A to .325/.416/.623. On the updated midseason prospect rankings, Baseball Prospectus listed Moncada as baseball’s second-best prospect.

Moncada, of course, isn’t the only star prospect being monitored closely in Portland. His teammate and seventh-overall pick in the 2015 draft, Andrew Benintendi, is also making waves in the Sox system. While the outfielder struggled initially following his promotion to Double-A, he has since improved his line in Portland to .277/.343/.476. Since June 10, Benintendi is hitting .327 with a 1.014 OPS, and was no. 11 on BP’s midseason prospect ranks.

These two names will likely continue be linked to one another as the team’s top-two prospects make their way to the majors. While Moncada’s numbers have been more impressive overall, it’s been Benintendi who has drawn more attention in the context of a potential promotion to the majors. Dave Dombrowski has expressed a willingness to promote players directly from Double-A to the bigs. The speculation is compounded by the question marks surrounding the team’s third outfield spot next to Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Injuries to left fielders Chris Young, Not Just A Catcher Blake Swihart, and Brock Holt left some clamoring for Benintendi to be called up sooner rather than later.

While Moncada may force his way up the ladder if he continues to tear the cover off the ball, there’s no obvious place to put him at the major league level as long as Dustin Pedroia is manning second base. At some point, it seems likely that Moncada will be moved to third (or even a corner outfield spot), where his path to playing time will be less cluttered.

We may not see either play at Fenway this season, but if they continue their torrid pace, Benintendi and Moncada may leave Dombrowski little choice but to call them up. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com wrote about bringing them both up and having them on the October roster, should the Sox make the playoffs. The possibility harkens back to Jacoby Ellsbury’s late-season addition to the 2007 team in center field, and Xander Bogaerts’ playing time in the 2013 playoffs.

Quick update on Anderson Espinoza (RHP):

Just kidding

High-A Salem: Michael Kopech (RHP)

While the move bolstered a rotation that desperately needed help, the acquisition of Drew Pomeranz at the expense of Anderson Espinoza was a tough pill to swallow for many Sox fans. Here’s hoping those Pedro Martinez comparisons don’t make this look like an all-time dumb trade by Dombrowski. Either way, we now turn our attention to two new pitchers for fans to salivate over as they trek through the farm system. The first is this year’s first-round pick, Jason Groome, who just signed a $3.65 million tender with the team and is headed to the Gulf Coast League to begin his career.

The second is Michael Kopech, who threw 105 MPH in a game at High-A Salem last week. While one pitch obviously isn’t what made Dombrowski comfortable to surrender Espino—wait. 105 MPH?

Yep. Kopech, the 20-year old right-hander taken in the first round in 2014 was clocked on multiple radar guns with a pitch harder than any thrown in the majors this season, save for one thrown by Aroldis Chapman on Monday night. Yikes.

Kopech missed the first couple months of the season with a broken bone in his hand suffered in an altercation with a teammate. And already has a 50-game suspension for a banned stimulant under his belt from last season. So, clearly, he’s hit some speed bumps since being drafted. But the kid can throw.

Kopech made a single start with Short Season A Lowell, going 4.2 innings without allowing a run, before being promoted to High-A Salem. There, he has made three starts totaling 14 innings, striking out 23 and just one earned run. While he ended up taking the loss, Kopech struck out nine in a five-inning performance Monday night.

Oh, and did I mention he has piercing blue eyes and serious flow, a la Noah Syndergaard? What’s that? That’s a weird thing to mention? Fine.

Throwing hard doesn’t guarantee success. Nor do facial features. But if Kopech can stay in control — on and off the mound — he’ll very soon be filling the void left by Espinoza as the Red Sox’ prized pitching prospect.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Given the cost of acquiring Pomeranz and how good this team is offensively, it’s tempting to believe this means the Red Sox should be done. They now have a reasonable top-four in their rotation, and might even go five deep if the Eduardo Rodriguez we saw in New York is the E-Rod we’ll get moving forward. Their offense is crazy good. Their bullpen is good enough, and could be a genuine plus if a few guys can stay healthy at once. The Red Sox’s current playoff odds stand at 79.9%, and we have every reason to believe this is a team that can make it to October, and might be able to play deep into that month.

I still think they should trade for Julio Teheran.

Teheran will cost a lot to acquire. He’s going to cost way more than just one of the remaining Big Three prospects, and he should. Teheran is 25 years old, is signed affordably through 2019 with an option for 2020 and, per PWARP, has had the 12th-best season of any starter this year (one spot ahead of Pomeranz, interestingly enough). He may not be an ace in the Chris Sale or Jose Fernandez sense, but he’s a really good, really young pitcher, and he’s probably available.

Despite the cost it will probably take to get him, there are a bunch of reasons Teheran is pretty much the perfect fit for this team right now. While the Red Sox shouldn’t completely mortgage their future to acquire him, he’d go a long way toward addressing the organization’s biggest deficiency. Before you yell at me, let’s review:

Teheran is good

I alluded to this above, but Teheran, by any objective measure, is really good. He’s sporting a 2.96 ERA, 3.03 DRA, 22.8 K%, 5.3 BB% and 40.2 GB% in 118.2 innings this season. He’s a former top prospect who was also pretty good in 2013 and really good in 2014. He was meh last year, which seems to be the primary reason people are worried about acquiring him. But he has the pedigree, past performance and age of a pitcher who should be capable of throwing near the top of a rotation for many years. Those guys are hard to come by.

The one legit gripe I see with Teheran is that he’s a fly-ball pitcher who’s already surrendering 1.21 HR/9 in Atlanta. That’s almost certainly going to go up in Fenway. My counter to this: show me all the good, young available pitchers on the market right now. They don’t exist. Just because Teheran isn’t perfect doesn’t mean he wouldn’t be a marked improvement over most arms in the Red Sox system. Maybe he’s more of a no. 3 in the AL than a no. 2, but Teheran isn’t going to go from an All-Star in Atlanta to a scrub in Boston.

Teheran is cheap and cost-controlled

Back when the Braves were good, they locked up a significant portion of their core to team-friendly contract extensions. That didn’t stop them from shipping away Craig Kimbrel or Andrelton Simmons, and it shouldn’t stop them from trading Teheran, who signed a six-year, $32.4 million extension with the Braves before the 2014 season. He’s also got an affordable option for 2020, meaning the Red Sox could acquire Teheran’s age-25-through-age-30 seasons, which is pretty much exactly when you want to have a pitcher in your service. Teheran has also proven capable of staying on the mound and eating innings, averaging 202.1 IP over the past three years.

The best part about the Pomeranz deal, as I wrote in my TA at the mothersite, is that he’s under control for two more seasons beyond this one. That’s really important, because the Red Sox are looking at a solid three-to-four year window in which they should be competing for championships. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. won’t be expensive yet during this window. David Price, Rick Porcello, Pomeranz, Kimbrel and Carson Smith should all be reasonable contributors during this time. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi are poised to join that core by around this time next season. Plus, the Red Sox have solid complimentary players in Steven Wright, Blake Swihart, Hanley Ramirez, Brock Holt, Travis Shaw and Dustin Pedroia under control, too.

The Red Sox have offense, they have a few good starters and they have back-end bullpen arms. But in adding Teheran, they could build out a good, young rotation that will perfectly compliment their impressive offensive core for the next handful of seasons. That’s important for two reasons, the first of which is:

The Red Sox stink at developing starting pitching

I covered this in depth in my TA, but to rehash: the Red Sox can’t develop starters! Matt Barnes has turned into a solid reliever, but he can’t start. Brandon Workman flopped in the rotation. Henry Owens’s control has taken a step back when it already needed to take two steps forward. Brian Johnson’s had trouble staying on the mound. Allen Webster flopped. Rubby De La Rosa stunk. Felix Doubront was only good for half a season. Michael Bowden busted. Trey Ball is headed in that direction. The Red Sox are good at a lot of things as an organization, but bringing along home-grown starters isn’t one of them.

There’s still time for Owens and Johnson. Maybe one of them figures it out and becomes a back-end arm. There’s value in that, but Teheran figures to bring a whole lot more to the table; better performance and more certainty. When you can’t develop pitching, you need to either trade for it or sign it. Which brings us to the next point …

There are almost no good starters on the market

The 2017 class of free-agent starters is a god damn tire fire. You’re looking at guys like Brett Anderson, Rich Hill, C.J. Wilson, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson and Doug Fister at the top of the class. There’s no one even close to Teheran available.

In terms of targeting a different arm than Teheran to trade for, ok. That’s reasonable. But who’s out there? Sale and Fernandez shouldn’t be available. The A’s have no reason to sell low on Sonny Gray, nor the Rays on Chris Archer (who might not even be as good as Teheran). Zack Greinke’s contract would be pretty tough to swallow if the D-Backs would even be willing to move him. The Indians are in the thick of things and have no reason to sell Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco.  It’s not a buyer’s market.

The Red Sox have the prospect depth

The final point is the most painful one, because I, like the rest of you, like to hug my prospects close and tuck them in at night. But the point of amassing prospects isn’t to ensure that all of them reach the big-league club; it’s to use them in any way that can contribute to the on-field product. Often times that means making room for them on the MLB roster, but it can also mean trading them to acquire talent that fits better.

Dave Dombrowski clearly knows this, having traded away three top-100 prospects in Espinoza, Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra for Pomeranz and Kimbrel. Losing that type of talent hurts, but the crazy thing about Boston’s farm system is they still have the pieces needed to get Teheran, or at the very last to try.

Here’s where it gets tricky; I’m 100% sure I would not move Moncada for Teheran, and I’m 90% sure I wouldn’t move Benintendi for him either. If the Braves insist on one of those two to start the package — a demand they’d be well within their right to make — I have no problem with the Red Sox holding serve and looking for a cheaper upgrade or praying E-Rod turns it around.  

But I don’t think it’s crazy to think the Red Sox could start a package with Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez and build from there. Consider the Shelby Miller trade from earlier this season. The Braves received a top-25 prospect in Dansby Swanson, a reasonable everyday player in Ender Inciarte and a top-100 arm in Aaron Blair for Miller, who pitched much better than Teheran did last year but who doesn’t come with Teheran’s insanely team-friendly contract. 

Odds are the Braves would be looking for something similar for Teheran, and I think the Red Sox can match. Devers would be Swanson in this case, a mid-minors top-25 bat with impact potential. E-Rod could take the place of Inciarte as a young, MLB-ready piece right now. And Henry Owens could serve here as Aaron Blair, giving the Braves another young arm to try and groom (seriously, they love young arms).

Maybe the Red Sox also throw in a Mauricio Dubon (sorry Collins) or a Pat Light or a Travis Lakins. If that’s what it takes to get Teheran while holding onto Moncada and Benintendi, so be it.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to make a very competitive offer for Teheran without gutting the core pieces that should contribute to their future.

The Braves could decide such a package isn’t enough. Maybe another pitching-needy team like the Blue Jays or Rangers or Dodgers will come knocking and blow the Braves away with a bevvy of young talent. Maybe Atlanta will decide they want to hold on to Teheran as they rebuild, even though they’re probably at least two years away from contention. If this is the case, so be it.

But the Red Sox have the opportunity to make a very competitive offer without gutting the core pieces that should contribute to their future. At the very least, it’s an opportunity they should explore. A rotation of Price, Teheran, Wright, Pomeranz and Porcello wouldn’t just be respectable; it would be objectively good. And it could be good for the next several seasons while leaving the Red Sox with enough money to go get another arm should a starter go down with injury or underperform.

Pairing that type of a rotation with the Red Sox’s young, offensive core will give them the type of young, cost-controlled, high-upside team every fan dreams of rooting for. And while Boston’s minor league depth will suffer as a result, they’d still have the pieces to make marginal upgrades thanks to players like Sam Travis, Michael Kopech, Jason Groome and others. The point of a good farm system isn’t to win offseason org rankings; it’s to help the big-league squad win.

Teheran is not a “true ace,” is not the best fit for Fenway Park and would cost a fortune in talent. He’s also good, young, has upside remaining and can provide the Red Sox the one thing they need and can’t develop on their own; quality starting pitching. It would be a risky move for Boston, but nothing ventured, nothing gained.

When you have a young core this good, it’s time to venture.

Photo by Jason Getz/USA Today Sports Images

Boston’s pen currently features seven relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, Robbie Ross, Heath Hembree, Tommy Layne and Matt Barnes. We’ll organize them into three tiers. The top tier includes the first three guys on the list. Say what you will about Kimbrel’s increased home run and walk rate, he’s still an elite option. Koji is visibly aging but for now he’s in this class. Beyond the thought of Tazawa facing anyone who has ever been a part of the Blue Jays organization, he’s a rock in Boston’s pen.

Then there’s the next group. That’s Ross and Hembree. Ross has been susceptible to the home run and he still walks more than you’d like, but he’s been effective. Hembree has been, if anything, even better, but he’s such a fly-ball pitcher that the fear of homers raining from the sky is still there. All in all though, two effective if not elite relievers.

Then there’s the back end of Layne and Barnes. Some might put Barnes in the middle tier, but I don’t because he simply walks too many guys. He’s not immune to homers either, though it’s not a huge problem for him. Mostly he’s a competent reliever, but not an option for the back end of pen because he simply doesn’t throw enough quality strikes or, really, enough strikes. Layne is, I’m sure a nice fellow, but he’s really just a guy. The walks are high, the strikeouts league average or a touch below from the pen, and he doesn’t dominate lefties like you’d think a guy with his arm angle would.

When looking to upgrade the pen, it’s this last tier of guys that I’d look to improve upon. You never like to lose talent for nothing, but this team is all in on winning this season and frankly Layne isn’t doing much to help. Barnes could someday move into the second tier if his command improves, but stashing him back in Pawtucket shouldn’t be any kind of impediment to improving the bullpen in Boston right now.

There are two groups from where to draw that improvement. The first is starting pitchers who have flamed out at the major league level. That would be Roenis Elias and Joe Kelly. Kelly is currently hurt, and his groin injury is coming along slowly. If he returns this season, it should be as a reliever in Pawtucket. See if his stuff plays up in a bullpen role and go from there. In the meantime, Roenis Elias represents an intriguing replacement for Tommy Layne, assuming the team needs a lefty-on-lefty only reliever. Elias has been successful against left handers in his career, holding them to a .658 OPS with a 2.67 K/BB ratio. He has some speed on his fastball and deception from the left side, both of which could play up a bit in the pen. It must be acknowledged that taking a starter and making him a situational lefty isn’t exactly squeezing out all the marrow out of the bone, but in this season of Going All In, maybe it merits a shot.

In his last 10 appearances, Light has thrown 12 innings, struck out 13, walked four, and given up six hits and no runs.

The second group is composed of minor league relievers Pat Light and Kyle Martin. Light is likely the better known of the two, having already made his major league debut earlier this season. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and he’s reported to have reached 100 mph at times. He keeps hitters off that heat with a splitter and slider. The overall package can be downright dominating when the command is there, and after an initial bump in the road at Pawtucket after his call up, Light has been dominant. In his last 10 appearances he’s thrown 12 innings, struck out 13, walked four, and given up six hits and no runs. Overall he has 32 strikeouts and 13 walks in 26.1 innings in Triple-A and all with only one homer allowed. He’s spent time in Triple-A and made an appearance in Boston, so it’s unlikely the 25-year-old would be wowed by the lights (sorry not sorry). (Editor’s note: it is indeed Light who got the call to the majors to replace Eduardo Rodriguez on the roster.)

Pat Light isn’t the only one in Triple-A to pitch well out of the pen. Kyle Martin, the Red Sox 9th round pick in 2013 out of Texas A&M University has been putting up numbers that surpass Light’s. His strikeouts are up (11.3 K/9), his walks down (2.3. BB/9), and his ground ball tendencies help keep the homers down as well with just one given up in 35 innings so far this season. Martin does carry a 4.11 ERA, but his K and BB numbers are quite good and he keeps the ball in the park well so his potential as a fifth or sixth bullpen arm isn’t diminished.

None of these guys are the next Kimbrel, but deployed properly they can be upgrades on the current cast. Send Barnes down and see what Light brings you. See if Elias can help get lefties out better than Layne has been able to, or don’t, just bring up Martin instead. There are, believe it or not, options. And options are good, especially if they represent hope and if they don’t cost the team top prospects like Rafael Devers or Anderson Espinoza. If Andrew Miller is available at reasonable cost, consider making the move, but short of that, there are enough problems elsewhere on this roster that it makes sense to use the team’s resources on a position with fewer internal solutions, which, at least for now, rules out the bullpen.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Top Play (WPA)

The Mayor of Ding Dong City takes this one. Travis Shaw took a four-seam fastball from Matt Wisler and cranked it 418 feet into the right field corner.

That dinger came with a .229 WPA, the highest mark in the game by about 150 points. The Red Sox have been getting off to good starts by scoring in the first inning lately, and Shaw put them in front early. The Braves wouldn’t even get three runs until the ninth inning, and by then, the game was so in hand that Pat Light made his debut.

Bottom Play (WPA)

Early on, David Price was in trouble against the Braves, which is as insane a statement as you can make in 2016. But it was a pretty tense moment, and Drew Stubbs stepped up to the plate to try and cash in with the bases loaded and two outs. Price struck him out, staking him to a -.070 WPA. The more telling part is that the worst four plays by WPA all involved Braves making harmless outs with men on base. Two of those involved strikeouts with runners in scoring position, including Stubbs’ at-bat. The fifth-worst was actually a Mookie Betts plate appearance, which ended pretty ridiculously:

Can’t really blame Mookie for that.

Key Moment

Shaw’s homer will get a lot of attention, but David Price’s 1-2-3 seventh inning was the moment and the dagger. Price had settled down after an uneven start, and with a 6-2 lead, it was this inning that he really started tearing the Braves’ lineup to shreds. He got through the inning with 11 pitches, striking out the last two batters, then struck out the side in the eighth. Price worried more than a few with a slow start, but he morphed into the ace we all expected him to be the longer the game went on, and as the pitch count went up, he got better. The seventh and eighth innings were one of the more exciting sequences of pitching the Red Sox have had this season.

Trend to Watch

The Red Sox and their speed on the bases. After three stolen bases last night, the Red Sox currently lead the majors in bags swiped. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are tied with five stolen bases for the team lead, and even Travis Shaw has two this year, the most notable being a (sort of) steal of home he had against the Rays last week. The Red Sox didn’t run nearly this much last year, and them being smart and aggressive on the basepaths is something to watch. I don’t expect Shaw to steal home again, but he’s defied so many expectations that I wouldn’t put it past them.

Coming Next

The Red Sox return home to play some superior, DH-inclusive baseball at Fenway against these same Braves. They’ll face Bud Norris, while the Red Sox will send out ace-in-waiting Steven Wright and his 1.70 ERA against Atlanta. Could Wright’s ERA go even lower?

Photo by Dale Zanine/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Pat Light (RHP) and Henry Owens (LHP)

Despite not receiving the same amount of attention given to Boston’s top prospects, Pat Light could have an impact on the big-league team this season. Light throws hard – his fastball routinely reaches 95mph – but has had difficulty honing his secondary offerings, so the Red Sox shifted him to a relief role for 2015. He excelled as a reliever at Double-A, striking out 32 batters and walking 11 in 29.2 innings pitched. His next promotion, to his current level at Pawtucket, proved more trying. He still struck out plenty of batters (35 in 33.0 innings), but a lack of control or lower comfort against the better hitters led to 26 walks.

Heading into the offseason, Light knew he needed to prepare for life as a reliever, a first for him in his young career. He focused on developing a physical and mental routine to support pitching out of the bullpen and worked hard to improve his fastball control. Consistently locating his overpowering fastball will be a main focus in 2016 and help shape his secondary pitches (splitter, curveball, changeup) into more dangerous weapons – a combination that could help earn him a promotion to Boston later this year. If Carson Smith’s rehab takes longer than expected or something else unforeseen presents the Red Sox with a need in the bullpen, Light could be called upon. In his first action of the 2016 season this past weekend against Buffalo, Light completed a shaky inning of work, allowing two runs on two walks, and one hit, while striking out a batter. Based on this one outing, it seems like his control issues still loom.

We have already seen Henry Owens in Boston, as he made 11 starts for the Red Sox last season with uneven results. Nevertheless, he still represents an important part of the team’s future. Owens had a chance to grab a spot in Boston’s rotation this spring, but a generally poor showing (five starts, 13.1 innings, eight runs allowed, 14 strikeouts, nine walks) coupled with Steven Wright’s solid performance, left Owens ticketed for Pawtucket to start the year. He was given the honor of starting the PawSox’s opener last Friday and pitched very well (6.0 innings, no runs, one hit, eight strikeouts, and three walks). More lines like that will get Owens to Fenway sooner rather than later, or at least have him at the front of the line for promotion when an (inevitable) injury or prolonged struggle strikes someone in the Red Sox rotation. This is something of a make-or-break year for Owens’ career in Boston.

Double-A Portland: Williams Jerez (LHP)

An area in which the Red Sox organization is a wee-bit thin is left-handed relief arms. Beyond Robbie Ross Jr. and Tommy Layne, there is not much depth on the horizon, though this partially depends on the development plan for players like Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. Williams Jerez, a converted outfielder and Boston’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2015, is an option to fill this lefty-reliever void. Jerez is still a work in progress but has shown an ability to pitch in relief that, with sustained success, could have him move through the system quickly.

He made 22 appearances for the Sea Dogs in 2015 (37.0 innings), finishing with a 3.65 RA9 and a 31-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio that will need improving. Cutting down on the walk rate will be an area of focus for Jerez this season. The good news is that in his two outings this season, he has yet to issue a walk, though he has given up two runs, including a homer, on four hits over his 3.1 innings. Jerez allowed only two home runs at Double-A in 2015, so hopefully this early-season dinger does not portend bad things to come.

High-A Salem: Mauricio Dubon (SS)

On a Salem Red Sox roster packed with potential stars of the future in Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi, shortstop Mauricio Dubon may be less heralded, but he offers considerable upside. In fact, in BP’s write-up of the Red Sox system, Dubon was mentioned as “a real candidate to shoot up the list next year.” Able to play anywhere in the infield, Dubon has shown the contact skills and speed to post a decent offensive line, even if he lacks much in the way of power potential. In line with this suggestion, his opening weekend was excellent. He collected five hits (one triple), two walks and only struck out twice in his 18 trips to the plate. This season is Dubon’s second opportunity at the High-A level. He was promoted there midway through last season after beating up Low-A pitching to the tune of a .301/.354/.428 line. He took time to adjust to the pitching at the advanced level, posting a paltry .217/.287/.261 line over his first 131 PA, but then caught on and performed very well in his final 138 PA (.328/.397/.385). Having Dubon in the mix with the Moncada-Devers-Benintendi big three will make Salem a fun team to watch this season.

Low-A Greenville: Michael Chavis (3B)

Last year, in his age-19 season, Chavis led all Red Sox minor leaguers with 16 home runs. Unfortunately, that tremendous power came with a major expense in strikeouts. Among players with at least 400 PA, Chavis finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate (30.6%) at the Low-A level. When he makes contact, the ball tends to be hit hard and go far. Almost half of his 97 hits went for extra bases (29 doubles, one triple to go with the 16 bombs). He just needs to make contact more often to really cash in on the power he possesses. Being more selective at the plate and focusing on attacking quality pitches should help Chavis in this area; it should also drive up his lowly walk rate. Red Sox farm director Ben Crockett told Alex Speier of The Boston Globe that the club wants Chavis to work not only on his approach at the plate, but also his defense.

For now, the 2014 first-round pick will be the Drive’s primary third baseman, but if his defense on the infield proves to be a limitation, then Chavis could be moved to a corner outfield spot. Regardless, in the early goings of the 2016 season, Chavis has been up to his usual tricks. In 15 PA for the Drive, he has six hits, two of which went for extra bases, three strikeouts and has yet to earn a walk. Hopefully the plate discipline tool develops as the season progresses. At 20-years-old, Chavis is still young for the level, so he has time to make the necessary adjustments and earn advancement through the system.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

That being said, the influx of talent from the system that will hit the majors in 2016 looks pretty thin. You’ve got Brian Johnson, and then you’ve got…Pat Light? Deven Marrero? Bryce Brentz? It’s not pretty. Most look like platoon guys at best and organizational depth at worst. For simplicity’s sake, we’re not counting the players who turned into minor league stashes, because most aren’t prospects in any form anymore, and god forbid Allen Craig ever hits well again.

The influx of talent from the Red Sox’s system that will hit the majors in 2016 looks pretty thin.

There won’t be a ton of rookies on the 2016 Red Sox, much less rookies getting significant time. Nearly all the known names exceeded their rookie limits in 2015. Eduardo Rodriguez, Travis Shaw, Blake Swihart, Matt Barnes and Henry Owens are all technically MLB sophomores. It’s really a damn shame, because a couple of them would’ve made the 2016 Rookie of the Year race interesting. Now it’s seemingly dominated by a bunch of Twins.

With the greenhorns on the Sox supposedly so far behind in the AL Rookie of the Year race, what would it take from a Red Sox rookie to win that award? The short answer is probably “shut up, you’re dumb, no one on the Sox is gonna win it”, and I’ll agree with the second part, at least. The long answer takes a lot of explaining and seemingly buried prospects breaking out in a big way.

To begin this journey deep into the fringes of the 40-man roster, we’ve got to establish how high the bar is going to be set so that our imaginary prospect breakouts can surpass it and shock our fantasy baseball world. The frontrunner for Rookie of the Year is most likely Byron Buxton, despite his lackluster spring so far. Miguel Sano lost rookie eligibility last season, and there’s a quite a bit of space between Buxton and Byung-Ho Park. So let’s go with PECOTA’s projection for Buxton in 2016 as our baseline:

Wow. That’s pretty fantastic for a 22-year-old center fielder. That’s also one hell of a bar to clear. Usually people would throw in the towel at the sight of this, but we’re not here for towel chucking, no sir. We’re here to Make Prospects Good Again^tm.

The first player to attempt to clear this like some sort of twisted version of Ninja Warrior is the rookie of the year frontrunner on the Red Sox, Brian Johnson.

Brian Johnson’s Case

There are going to be caveats for nearly everyone on this list, but Johnson’s got the easiest path, even if it does involve setting fire to nearly all of the Red Sox’s starting depth. With Eduardo Rodriguez injured, Johnson has to recover remarkably quickly from a sprained big toe and usurp the fifth spot in the rotation from both Steven Wright and Roenis Elias, which probably requires an injury of some sort to either of them. Or just those two being terrible simultaneously. Not unlikely, but not nice, either.

Once we get past that, Johnson’s got a clear shot at making an impact. PECOTA only gives him 42 major league innings of work for a 4.12 ERA, a 4.23 FIP and a measly 0.4 WARP, and extrapolated to 200 innings, that puts him roughly in the 1.6-2.0 WARP range, give or take a tenth. In a vacuum, that’s not too bad. Going up against Buxton’s line, however, that’s plain puny. Buxton has 3.0+ WARP on him and that’s with an optimistic projection for Johnson.

The issue with Johnson is that his repertoire isn’t anything to write home about. He’s a pitcher that relies on control to get batters out, not stuff or overwhelming velocity. So let’s assume Brian Johnson bucks his current developmental trend and somehow creates that out-pitch that’s he’s been lacking in his arsenal. Would that be enough to dethrone Buxton? Sure, if he turns that pitch into the greatest pitch ever conceived. Unless Johnson turns water into wine sometime soon, even the most optimistic projections can’t raise him to Buxton’s level.

Deven Marrero’s Case

If you thought Johnson’s case for ROY was a stretch, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Marrero is blocked at shortstop by Xander Bogaerts, and third base by both Pablo Sandoval and Travis Shaw. Say Bogaerts goes down with some sort of serious, but non-career-threatening injury (sorry Ben, forgive me), and Holt can’t take over at short because Farrell thinks it would put too much strain on him. Enter Marrero.

Again, PECOTA takes into account the lack of playing time Marrero would see, giving him 32 PA with a .241/.300/.347 slash and average defense for a 0.1 WARP. Expand this to 600 PA with the same triple slash and you get 2.0 WARP, and that’s with those stats staying constant and not falling off a cliff. That’s not exactly a Buxton clone, if you catch my drift – the drift being that this is still terrible.

Marrero’s flat swing makes him a line-drive hitter at best, but there’s not much power there, so you’ll see some stuff laced into the gap but not much else. He’d most likely have to tweak his swing to give him more loft and distance to have any sort of chance to be in the ROY race. Like Johnson, nothing short of walking on water makes Marrero a candidate for this. We can always hope, especially after we see a very slick play in the field, but then Marrero will hit a weak grounder to short for the ninth plate appearance in a row, dashing all of those hopes in an instant.

Pat Light’s Case

We’re diving into some pretty insane depths here, so hold on tight.

Pat Light is a reliever who throws fastballs in the high 90s but has some control issues. To be considered for ROY, not only will he have to make the 25-man roster out of camp (he won’t), he’ll have to beat out Junichi Tazawa, Carson Smith, Koji Uehara, and Craig Kimbrel to be a closer, the most prominent job a bullpen pitcher can have (again, he won’t), and then not blow a save – like ever (yeah, nah, he won’t). Pat Light is intriguing, but I’m not twisting even my warped reality to have him win the ROY award.

Sam Travis’ Case

Look, I love Travis. He’s my bet to be the Red Sox first baseman of the future. But I’m hesitant to even give him the time of day here. Him just getting to the majors requires a Game of Thrones-level elimination of nearly every corner infielder from Pawtucket to Boston, and even though there’ll be cheering in the Twitter streets over Allen Craig’s demise, that’s a lot of talent on the disabled list.

PECOTA gives Travis 250 PA of .263/.320/.410 and a WARP of 0.4. That’s not even worth expanding on. At least Marrero got a specific number of PAs and not the standard 250 that minor leaguers get. The Minnesotan center fielder wins again.

Bryce Brentz’s Case

Even the most optimistic PECOTA projection only gives Brentz 100 PA, and that’s riding on him hitting .288/.352/.514 in a sample size that small. Brentz has yet to prove he can hit right-handed pitchers. He’ll be seeing a lot of good ones in the majors.

The only outfielder on this list can’t even stack up since someone like Brennan Boesch is probably going to be called up before he does (pending recovery). Boy, you can just see Buxton sweat, huh?

Marco Hernandez’s Case

See, Hernandez is only waiting for news to break that Bogaerts, Holt, and Marrero got their arms mangled in some terrible baseball accident. Then it’s his time to shine at shortstop, because nothing says “MLB debut!” quite like “Boston shortstop massacre”.

Hernandez proceeds to hit at a .250/.272/.369 clip. He produces almost as much WARP as Marrero with worse defense and a little bit more pop. Buxton laughs all the way to the award ceremony.

Sean Coyle’s Case

A healthy Sean Coyle has a little bit of power and speed. That’s kind of it. You’d also see Pedroia, Holt, and Josh Rutledge checking into a year-long stay on the DL since this weird fantasy world we’ve cooked up doesn’t like infielders much. Long story short: Buxton.

Rafael Devers’ Case

We need to stop. This has gone on long enough.

Yoan Moncada’s Case

My eyes. They’re…they’re bleeding. I…I need to go.

So the Red Sox don’t have anything that can really match up to Buxton. I mean, you can argue “but that’s why they play the game!” but let’s be realistic – and yes, I understand the silliness of that statement after what I just wrote. Oddly enough, my hypothesis was correct; there’s very little chance a Red Sox rookie earns the award over Buxton. It’s fun to think about, but think too hard and you end up looking through High-A Salem rosters at 1 AM wondering who could be the next big thing. Take my advice: don’t do that.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

The 2016 season will be Pat Light’s most important yet.  After being added to the Red Sox’s 40-man roster earlier this winter, expectations are beginning to rise for the soon-to-be 25-year-old right-hander, and that makes sense considering this will be his fifth year in their system.  In addition to being his fifth overall, this will be Light’s second season out of the bullpen, which means he and the team will be unable to use the “learning curve: excuse in the face of any early struggles.  There is a lot of pressure on Light as he enters Spring Training with the big league club, but make no mistake about it; with pressure comes opportunity, and that is something the Red Sox are likely to give him at some point this season.

There is little doubt the Red Sox thought Light would have broken through by now when they selected him with their supplemental first-round pick in 2012.  A pick they received, quite coincidentally given his current makeup, as compensation from the Philadelphia Phillies for their signing of Jonathan Papelbon.  However, Light’s rise and growth within the system was stunted as a result of a switch in his role prior to last season.

For his first three years in the Red Sox system, Light was being groomed as a starter with a three-pitch repertoire: fastball, slider and changeup.  His fastball was consistently in the low 90s during this part of his career, but he had the ability to turn it up when he had to.  Things started out well for Light, who immediately reported to Lowell after being drafted.  He started 12 games that year, pitched 30.1 innings and finished with 30 strikeouts, 5 walks and a 2.37 era.  However, that would be the last time Light saw success as a starter.

In 2013, after moving up a level to Greenville, Light started nine games and pitched 28.1 innings.  He surrendered 44 hits, issued 14 walks and finished with an 8.89 ERA.  In 2014, after moving up another  level, he started 22 games and pitched 115 innings, surrendering 135 hits, issuing 35 walks and compiling a 4.93 era.  However, of most concern to the Red Sox at the time was his low strikeout rate, which had dipped to a career-low 11.2%.  Given his performance to date and ability to reach back and throw in the upper 90’s, the organization decided to make a change and try Light out as a reliever in 2015 — a role many had him pegged for when the Sox first drafted him.

What Went Right in 2015

Light began the 2015 season in Portland and he did so with a brand-new pitch repertoire.  He shelved his slider and changeup, which he had limited success with, and started to throw a splitter that he used throughout college, but never after.  Armed with an upper-90s fastball and swing-and-miss splitter, Light set out to prove himself as a reliever and he did just that.  After giving up six earned runs in his first nine innings with Portland, Light settled in and surrendered only two runs over his next 20.2 innings.  It was at that point he was called up to Pawtucket. Overall, Light finished his time in Portland with the following numbers: 21 appearances; 29.2 IP; 18 hits; 3 HR; 11 walks; 32 strikeouts and a 2.43 era.  Simply put, he was dominant, striking out 27.1% of the batters he faced, with opponents only hitting .168 off him.  All the reason why it was the right time for him to move up and test himself in Pawtucket.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Light was unable to find the same success in Pawtucket, and that had a lot to do with his loss of command.  He appeared in 11 games before the Triple-A All-Star Break, which saw him walk 12 batters in 11.1 innings and only strike out 10.  Opponents hit .318 off him during this 11-game stretch and he compiled an 8.74 ERA.  It was one of the worst stretches of his career and by far the worst in his short time as a reliever.

During the second-half of the Triple-A season, although Light never obtained the level of success he found in Portland, he did improve.  He pitched 21.1 innings over 15 appearances, held batters to a .210 average and compiled a 3.32 ERA.  Most importantly his strikeout and walk numbers improved.  In the first half, he struck out 10 and walked 12, but in the second half, he walked 14 and struck out 25.  While his command remained an issue, the return of his swing-and-miss stuff was encouraging for he and the Red Sox organization.

Despite the strong finish, there is no question that Light struggled through much of his 33 innings in Pawtucket.  Overall, he surrendered 31 hits and walked 26 batters.  Contrast that with his near-30 innings in Portland, where he surrendered 18 hits and walked 11 batters.

Future Outlook/ETA

There were a lot of encouraging signs from Light’s 2015 season, which is why at the end of the year, BP Boston’s Alex Skillin labeled him one of the top five prospects to watch for in 2016.  It is important to remember that while he struggled during much of his time in Pawtucket, it was not only his first time pitching out of the bullpen, but also his first battle with Triple-A hitters.  It is entirely plausible, and reasonable for that matter, to imagine he was simply over-matched when he first arrived there.  However, recently, a new theory arose that the Red Sox think he was tipping pitches.  It is an issue they have figured out this offseason, but if true, may explain Light’s struggles.  Ultimately, Light figured it out long enough to produce a strong month of August (14.1 IP, 8 H, 19 SO, .157 BAA) with Pawtucket, which was something he could hold onto heading into the offseason.

Light did not have to wait long to put some of the things he learned from his time in Pawtucket to work, as he and the Red Sox organization decided to have him pitch and continue his relief work in the Puerto Rican Winter League.  Although he once again dealt with command problems, issuing eight walks in 11.1 innings, he struck out 10 batters and compiled an impressive 1.59 ERA.

Light is likely going to debut with the Red Sox in 2016.  That is no doubt the plan, and anything less will be disappointing to both him and the organization. He’s unlikely to start the year in the pen given the offseason acquisitions of Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith and out-of-options players like Tommy Layne and Steven Wright ahead of him, but he’s certainly in the next tier of depth.

Regardless of who wins the 12th spot out of Spring Training, I think Light is going to throw his first pitch in Fenway Park in 2016 for the following reasons: (1) barring a complete meltdown both this spring and to begin the Triple-A season, he is going to be one of the next men up in case of an injury or need; (2) on the injury front, Koji Uehara is turning 41-years-old in April and dealt with injuries and slightly diminishing stuff this past season; (3) Matt Barnes has yet to find success at the Major League level and there is not much reason to believe anything will be different this season; and (4) Light fits the mold of what GM Dave Dombrowski wants in his bullpen and that is the ability to throw 100 MPH.

If there is a need and Light is pitching well, Dombrowski will not hesitate to give him a chance. Light could give the Red Sox yet another flame-throwing righty out of the pen, and thanks to  Boston’s offseason moves, he shouldn’t be rushed into high-leverage situations right away. That’s a great situation for a reliever to find himself in, and Light could position himself for a more consequential role in 2017 and beyond.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Going Deep

The long-dreaded, yet inevitable, happened for the Red Sox last week — David Ortiz announced he will retire at the end of the 2016 season. The news came as little surprise.

Ortiz is 40 years old and, after hitting his 500th home run in September, has pretty much reached every possible career milestone. But it does leave the Sox with questions beyond 2016. CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam asked perhaps the biggest one — where will the Red Sox’s power come from in the post-Ortiz era? That answer seemed clear entering spring training last season. The Sox signed Hanley Ramirez to a four-year deal with the expectation that he would DH when Ortiz retires and, at least partially, fill the power-hitting void left by Big Papi. That seems unlikely now. Ramirez hit 10 home runs in April and finished with 19 for the year in what was a dreadful season both in the field and at the plate. The best-case scenario is that Ramirez is traded and never seen in a Red Sox uniform again. Let’s pretend that’s the case for a minute and leave him out of the mix. So who’s next? (Before considering this answer, let’s remember there’s really no replacing Ortiz, who hit 37 home runs with a .280 ISO — good for sixth in all of baseball — at 39 years old last season, especially when we’re looking at it from a power-hitting standpoint.)

Right now it’s Mookie Betts. Betts hit 18 home runs, eight of which came in the final 58 games of the season, and finished second among qualified Red Sox players with a .188 ISO. The now-23-year-old struggled at the plate over the first two months before turning it around considerably. The idea is that he is only going to get better. The next-best options are unproven minor leaguers. First there’s Sam Travis. He’s big, strong and has a long swing, but that’s yet to translate into power hitting (he posted a .136 ISO in 281 plate appearances with Double-A Portland). Then, of course, there’s Andrew Benintendi, whom the Sox drafted in the first round last June. His 239 plate appearances between Lowell and Greenville is a small sample size, but his production — a .250 ISO in Lowell and .230 in Greenville — was no joke. The problem, however, is that he may be years away from being major-league ready. Perhaps we’ll see Ortiz’s true value once he’s no longer in the lineup every day.

This offseason isn’t the first in which the Red Sox are in pursuit of an ace. But, as Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald points out, the way in which they expect to do it is unfamiliar territory for both the franchise and Dave Dombrowski. The last 20 years show that the Sox have been most successful when acquiring elite starting pitching via trade. It’s how they landed Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, all three of whom were instrumental to World Series championships. Their most recent ace, Jon Lester, was homegrown. This offseason, it appears the most likely way the Red Sox will land a No. 1 starter will be via free agency, whether they sign Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke or David Price. That’s something the modern Red Sox, and Dombroski, don’t normally do. The last top-of-the-rotation starter the Sox signed as a free agent was John Lackey. By then Lester was already in place as the No. 1. Other free-agent signings included Daisuke Matsuzaka and Matt Clement. Not exactly ace-quality right there.

Dombrowski’s Tiger teams were no different. Justin Verlander was homegrown, while Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Price were all traded for. Why exactly are these such uncharted waters for the Sox and Dombrowski? Perhaps it’s the risk that comes with it. Just look at last season’s free-agent class. Scherzer signed with the Nationals for $210 million over seven years, while Jon Lester inked a six-year, $155 million deal with the Cubs. Both pitchers had solid first seasons with their new teams, but it’s how the coming years play out that’ll determine if the contracts were worth it. Meanwhile, James Shields had one of his worst statistical seasons in 2015 after signing a four-year, $75 million deal with the Padres. The Sox will need to spend Lester or even Scherzer money to land one of the top pitchers on the market. But first they need to determine who’s worth the risk.

Quick Hits

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith makes the case for Greinke as the Red Sox’s top pitching target. Greinke had perhaps his best season in 2015, posting a 2.79 FIP, 7.6 WARP and finishing second in the NL Cy Young race. Last season wasn’t a fluke, either. Greinke may have occasionally flown under the radar pitching in the same rotation as Clayton Kershaw, but his three years with the Dodgers were some of his best, as he finished with a 2.97 FIP and 8.3 K/9 over a combined 602.2 innings. The righty has proven he can also do it in the American League, where he pitched with the Royals over the first seven seasons of his career and won a Cy Young in 2009. The one potential issue with Greinke is his battle with social anxiety disorder. But that’s a moot point given he how he handled the pressures of pitching in the Los Angeles market, as Chad Finn of Boston.com pointed out.

Don’t think we’re done talking about starting pitching just yet. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier wrote an interesting piece on when the right time to trade a back-of-the-rotation starter is. The Red Sox certainly have a bevvy of those kind of pitchers. That will become more apparent if and when they acquire a No. 1 starter. That means someone will have to go. Speier explains why the Sox may be best served waiting until the middle of next season to strike a deal, citing the Cubs’ July 2013 acquisition of a little-known Jake Arrieta in exchange for Scott Feldman as a reason to be patient.  

Reliever Pat Light was one of three prospects added to the team’s 40-man roster last Friday. The 24-year-old righty has never been among the team’s top prospects since being drafted in 2012 and had an unspectacular 2015 season, especially in Triple-A where he posted a 4.28 FIP and an ugly 7.09 BB/9 in 26 relief appearances. But, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, Light gives the Sox another hard-throwing arm out of the bullpen. Light’s fastball, which sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, is a commodity among pitchers that helped him average a 9.55 K/9 in Pawtucket. It appears to be an asset the Red Sox desire in their bullpen reconstruction after trading for Craig Kimbrel nearly two weeks ago. Unlike Kimbrel, of course, Light is young and unproven, just like Matt Barnes, who also lives and dies by a mid-90s fastball, was last season before finishing with a 5.23 FIP over 43 innings. That’s not to say Light will be like Barnes if he pitches in Boston next season. But you’ve been warned.

Not everyone was on board with the Kimbrel trade. The reason for that is the hefty batch of prospects the Sox were forced to give up in order to get him, most notably Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra. The Providence Journal’s Tim Britton analyzed what exactly the Red Sox lost in Margot and Guerra. Margot was one of the top-rated prospects in the organization last season. He’s a speedy, athletic outfielder with power potential, but his aggressiveness at the plate caught up with him in a disappointing stint in Double-A. The good news for Margot is he’s 21 years old and has time to improve his approach and reach his ceiling. Guerra was always touted for his defensive prowess at shortstop, but he was a pleasant surprise at the plate, where he finished with a .354 wOBA and 15 home runs in Low-A Greenville. The Red Sox, however, could afford to part ways with Guerra given Xander Bogaerts’ stranglehold on short for years to come.

It wouldn’t be Read Sox without a Roger Clemens reference, right? Rocket has an interesting place in Boston sports lore. He spent 13 stellar seasons as the team’s homegrown ace, but his most controversial moments came as a member of the Yankees with the rivalry at its peak. Then there was that whole steroids thing. If you’re under 25 (like me), you probably don’t like Clemens and see no place for him in the Hall of Fame. But if he were to be voted in, he’d don a Red Sox cap on his plaque — at least that’s what he said in a radio interview last week. Now that would be quite a sight.

Dave Roberts was named manager of the Dodgers on Monday. I bring this up as an excuse to relive the biggest stolen base in Red Sox history. Enjoy!

When your season is a 162-game grind, having this kind of depth is hugely important. Injuries are going to happen and players are going to underperform for long stretches, giving you needs that you didn’t anticipate in February and March. As such, it’s important to complement your major-league depth with plenty of reinforcements on the farm. We all know about how highly regarded this Boston farm system is, but that’s in terms of overall talent. Do they have the proper depth in the upper levels to help out the big-league squad at any position where a need may pop up?

Catcher

We’ll start behind the plate, because that’s usually where people start this kind of thing and I have a crippling inability to think for myself. It’s here where the Red Sox possess an impressive amount of depth that will be the envy of the league barring any sort of trade. Boston wasn’t one of the best teams in the league here last year, but they’ll likely be returning a Blake Swihart/Ryan Hanigan duo that looked much better down the stretch. On top of that, they’ll also have Christian Vazquez back from his Tommy John rehab. The defensive wizard will probably work the rust off in Triple-A, but he’ll be ready whenever an injury occurs and gives the Red Sox maybe the best third catcher in the league. Sandy Leon accepted his assignment to Pawtucket after the season, giving them even more depth behind the plate. This will not be a worry this winter.

Infield

As I mentioned before, the Red Sox have two perfect backup infielders in Holt and Shaw, as they can both handle multiple positions and have shown an ability to thrive in an everyday role. However, if/when they need to step into the starting lineup, that will open up empty bench spots. In Pawtucket, they look like they’ll have some middle infield options, but the corner infield could be more iffy. Starting up the middle, Deven Marrero is the obvious guy to look to. He’s a plus defender and came up for the first time in 2015. There’s still plenty to worry about with his bat, but as a third option coming from Triple-A he works just fine. However, Marrero is also a possible trade candidate, which could leave a hole. Luckily, Boston acquired Marco Hernandez as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal a couple years ago, and he looks like a future utility player. While he doesn’t possess the same kind of glove as Marrero, he plays good defense at both second base and shortstop. Hernandez has also showed off solid bat-to-ball skills in the minors and should see some MLB time in 2016.

On the corners, things are a little less certain, as Boston’s depth depends on some reclamation projects. Chief among them in Allen Craig, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster once again. The only way he’ll see the majors again is if he lights the International League on fire over the first month or two of the season. Garin Cecchini never reached the heights of Craig, but he’s also fallen pretty far from his top prospect days, and 2016 could be his last chance to earn a permanent spot on a major-league roster. Finally, Sean Coyle was one of the dark horses to play a role on the 2015 team, but injuries and underperformance in the minors nixed that idea. It doesn’t look likely that any of these players will bounce all the way back in 2016, but there is some hope here that at least one can get back to (or finally reach) a respectable level.

Outfield

I alluded to this above, but this is the weakest area on the roster in terms of depth. Their current starting trio is full of youth and potential, but there’s not a lot of that in Pawtucket right now. On Opening Day, the only player who will be ready to step right in from Triple-A appears to be Bryce Brentz. That says about all you need to hear about the situation. Manuel Margot spent a good portion of last year in Double-A and should see Pawtucket at some point in 2016, but he’s not a viable depth option until at least July. That’s if he even stays with the organization. Expect the Red Sox to dip their toes into the minor-league free agent pool to find some extra outfield depth.

Rotation

This is the antithesis of the outfield, as Pawtucket’s rotation should be filled with viable rotation depth for the majors. There’s a chance that Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Steven Wright all start the year in that rotation, and they are likely to be three of the top four backup starting pitchers, along with Joe Kelly. You can never have enough starting pitching, of course, and they could look for some more depth to add to this group, but it’s not a dire need at this moment if they add some quality to the top.

Bullpen

Like the rotation, the Red Sox should have plenty of relief arms handy in the Pawtucket bullpen. We saw the same pattern in 2015, as there were plenty of options to call upon when a fresh arm was needed. Of course, the issue was that none of those arms were particularly good. They’ll likely be looking at a similar cast of faces in 2016, at least to start the year. Heath Hembree, Jonathan Aro and Edwin Escobar will lead the way, although Pat Light and Jorge Marban should be able to provide some depth as well. Later in the year, Brandon Workman could be back in the mix and guys like Madison Younginer and Williams Jerez could have taken an unexpected step forward. Bullpen depth changes and evolves quickly and often, but as of right now there is some solid depth to pick from in case of injury.

★★★

The Red Sox are going to be focusing on the David Prices of the world this winter, but every year we see the best teams in the league rely on strong depth. Injuries happen to every ball club, and players who start the year in the minors have to play unexpectedly large roles in the middle of the season. Boston appears to be prepared for this scenario at most positions, with corner infield potentially being an issue and the outfield looking particularly shallow. While most of your attention can be paid to the big names, don’t forget about the depth pieces that get brought in to supplement the fringes of the roster.

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