As they did for batters, the great team in the Statcast lab has created leaderboards that allow us to find the pitchers who are the best at limiting batters from barreling up their pitches. These can be defined per batted-ball event (Brls/BBE) or per plate appearance (Brls/PA). So we can look at how often pitchers allow barreled-up balls when their pitches get turned into balls-in-play, but also factor-in the fact that some pitchers allow fewer balls-in-play than others due to things like strikeouts and walks. With our minds now re-oriented to the pitching side of the batter-pitcher matchup, let’s look at how pitchers fared in limiting barrels-against.

Before getting right into things I think it is worth considering that, now more than ever, starting pitching and relief pitching are two very different roles. As such, I evaluated the roles separately. Starters were defined as pitchers who started more than half their games. This is a crude definition, but it provides a decent distinction. With the starter/reliever categorization made, I then limited the data to only include starters who had at least 60 batted ball events, and relievers who had at least 45 batted ball events. 60 BBE was used as the threshold for the starters because it matched the threshold I used for batters last week, and 45 BBE was used for relievers because it was reasonably above the dataset minimum of 30 to provide a strong sample. These thresholds were mostly arbitrarily selected, and therefore can be adjusted if someone thinks there is a reason to do so. In any case, using these BBE thresholds leaves 533 pitchers (216 starters, 317 relievers) in the sample.

For the 216 starters, the average Brl/BBE was 6.96 percent (SD = 2.35). As was the case when looking at the batters, barrels do not happen very often. The starter who was the best at limiting opponents from barreling up his pitches: Alec Asher of the Phillies (1.2%). I was not sure I knew who he was until I looked into this metric, but it turns out he had five nice starts for the Phillies last year. My knowledge of 2016 starting pitchers aside, the list of the top-25 guys at limiting barrels includes many of the pitchers you would expect to be at the top of a list like this: Noah Syndergaard, Gerrit Cole, Jose Fernandez, Kyle Hendricks, Aaron Nola, Rich Hill and Jake Arrieta. Changing things to be on a per-PA basis lowers the average rate to 4.36 percent (SD = 1.61) and flips the top spots, moving Brandon McCarthy (0.6%) into first and Asher to second (0.9%).

How about the Red Sox starters? As a group they had the third best ERA in the American League last year, and this is reflected in the group’s ability to avoid opponents’ barrels. Other than Clay Buchholz and Drew Pomeranz, all of the 2016 Red Sox starters who met the BBE threshold were better than the league average. Note that being better than average means having a low rate. Steven Wright and his dancing knuckler was a standout for the Sox last year; he was ninth best in Brls/BBE and 11^th in Brls/PA. Oh, and just as you expected, Sean O’Sullivan was a top-30 pitcher in terms of barrel-limiting. He will certainly be missed. Fortunately the Red Sox acquired a reasonable replacement, Chris Sale, who was not far behind in limiting barrels-against.

Henry Owens did not have 60 BBE last year, but I included him because this provides another bit of evidence that he is not ready to pitch in the major leagues. He has serious control issues (career 4.66 BB/9) and when he allows contact, it is hard contact more often than anyone would like. Given this, and his struggles this Spring, it might be time to move on from the Henry-Owens-is-a-reasonable-depth-option thought process. The rest of the list – O’Sullivan notwithstanding – shakes out mostly as expected. I am interested in seeing Pomeranz’s San Diego/Boston splits for this metric. From what I recall, and this is likely unfairly biased, he gave up all kinds of rockets during his time with the Red Sox last year; he certainly has this Spring, which doesn’t exactly instill confidence.

On to the relievers. For the 317 relievers included in the sample the average Brl/BBE was 6.3 percent (2.99); relievers allow barrels slightly less often than starters. Joba Chamberlain did not allow a single barrel among his 49 batted ball events. He was one of three relievers to do so last year, along with German Marquez (Colorado) and Xavier Cedeno (Tampa Bay). Accordingly, putting things on a per PA basis does not change the top spots, but as is typical when making this adjustment the average barrel rate drops: 3.71 percent (SD = 1.86). As for the Red Sox’s relievers, much like the starters, they were for the most part better than league average.

Craig Kimbrel is an interesting example of the importance of considering the barrel measure on both a per batted-ball and per PA basis. Per batted ball, Kimbrel was slightly worse than league average, meaning that when opponents managed to put the ball in play he was not much different from the average reliever in having that contact come off the opponents’ barrel. But when you consider how often he strikes out (and walks) batters, his barrel rate is much more palatable. Noe Ramirez did not make the BBE threshold, but I included him here for similar reasons as with Henry Owens: he should probably not be considered a viable major league option. If the 2017 Red Sox have Ramirez and Owens throwing many innings then I suspect something has gone wrong.

As I noted when looking at barrels from the batting perspective, this is supposed to be a process metric. We are interested in finding pitchers who, due to their pitch repertoire, pitch movement, deception, or other factors, are able to consistently avoid having opponents barrel-up their pitches. For batters I suggested this is about swing and approach consistently resulting in contact on the barrel. If it is a process metric we should expect some year-to-year consistency. This was the case for batters, as the year-to-year (2015-to-2016) correlation for barrel rates was quite high (0.747 for Brls/BBE, 0.742 for Brls/PA). This turns out not to be the case for pitchers. The Brls/BBE correlation across 2016 and 2015 for pitchers who met the BBE threshold criteria by pitching role in each year was only 0.13; it was only slightly better for Brls/PA: 0.19. Pitchers changing roles between seasons and survivorship bias (those who frequently give up hard contact are not kept around) likely have an effect here, but this is still interesting. For those interested, here are scatterplots of the batters and pitchers year-to-year Brls/BBE and Brls/PA. Taken together, these correlations suggest that it is the same batters who are barreling the ball year-to-year, but they are not necessarily doing it off of the same pitchers each year.

While the relation between years may not be as clear for pitchers, here are the changes for Red Sox pitchers (grouped by role; negative numbers mean the rate was lower (better) in 2016):

The emergence of Steven Wright is clear, as it is for Fernando Abad. Wait, that seems odd. Perhaps, as for Drew Pomeranz, it would be interesting to see Abad’s team splits for these barrels measures. Otherwise most of the Red Sox pitchers stayed fairly similar across the two seasons.

In the end, the majority of the 2016 Red Sox pitching staff allowed barrels at better rate than league average. This certainly helped them post a top-10 team ERA. The extent to which it is replicable in the coming season is unclear, as the available data suggest the year-to-year barrel-against rates involve a lot of noise. Regardless, barrels-against are not the whole story, but rather just one component, and the additions of Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg, and improved defense in left field and at third base should keep the run prevention side of the 2017 Red Sox in the top third of the league.

Photo by Kim Clement – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

The Red Sox front office has a lot of work to do this offseason to mould the roster into a collection of talent that will win more often than it loses. According to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (and really anyone else who attended last week’s press conference), Dave Dombrowski is focused on improving the pitching staff. The best way to go about doing so remains unclear. Sign free agents? Trade prospects/younger players? While the Red Sox tend to have one of the highest payrolls in the game, it seems clear that not all of the changes to the roster are going to come through free-agency. Signing a free agent like David Price will keep all those precious, budding prospects in the system, but it does not come without other risks. Alex Speier reminds us that big spending does not always correspond to winning; in fact the correlation between payroll and winning is at a low point. Trading a package of prospects/younger players (e.g., Rafael Devers, Anderson Espinoza, Jackie Bradley Jr., Blake Swihart) to get a frontline starter like Sonny Gray seems like a reasonable approach. But, as you know, starting pitching is not the only thing that needs considering, Tim Britton, of the Providence Journal, explores free agent and trade options for fixing the bullpen. In the end, the way to best improve the club’s pitching staff is not likely to be to go all-in on path A (free agents) or path B (trades). Taking a measured approach and integrating the two sounds like the right path.

Seven of the ten playoff teams this year finished in the top-12 for home run totals this season. The Pirates, Royals, and Cardinals are the only three teams that finished lower (23rd, 24th, and 25th, respectively). The phrase Joe Sheehan has been championing this postseason appears to be correct: “ball go far, team go far.” The Red Sox finished 15^th in home runs last season with 161, ten behind the 12th place Cubs. To some extent the Sox were a team that had difficulty hitting for power; their isolated slugging of .149 was a tick below league average (.150), ranking 17th in the game. These numbers prompted Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe to wonder who will generate power for the Red Sox in 2016. Better seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval will ameliorate some of the power problem, but might the front office need to acquire someone who can hit some bombs? Someone like free agent first baseman Chris Davis? Maybe, but that move necessitates trading Hanley Ramirez, or pressing reset on the left field experiment, which seems less than ideal. For what it is worth Dombrowski has said that he is comfortable with the team’s power, and likes that they did not strike out a lot (18.4 K% was fourth lowest in baseball). Power is not the only issue the offense had last season, though. Another concern, pointed out by Alex Speier in his 108 Stitches newsletter, is that the offense was only good at Fenway:

Home: .290/.349/.451 (.160 ISO; 80 HR)

Away: .241/.302/.382 (.139 ISO; 81 HR)

It is true that overall Fenway is a hitter’s park, but not as dramatically as those numbers suggest. Perhaps assuming the offense is a clear strength is not entirely correct. While they did score a lot of runs last year, there are deficiencies to consider. Regardless, given Dombrowski’s comments in Cafardo’s article and his stated priority of improving the pitching, it seems doubtful that the team will make a major acquisition on the offensive side of the ball.

Quick Hits

The catcher position was a bit of an on-the-fly adventure for the Red Sox in 2015. Peter Abraham writes that the Red Sox will benefit from the depth they have at the position, as Christian Vazquez will resume his place as the starter, and Blake Swihart, Ryan Hanigan and Sandy Leon can fill in as backups. Alternatively, Swihart can be used as a trade chip to improve other areas of the team, like the rotation. Ian Browne of MLB.com had similar thoughts on the Red Sox’s options at catcher.

One of the fun parts of the 2015 season was watching the Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo outfield. But, as good as they looked, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com reminds us that starting jobs are not yet guaranteed for two of these three players, and that the Red Sox will look to add outfield depth to their roster. It will be difficult but Mastrodonato suggests that trading the suddenly inept Allen Craig could be part of this venture, or as part of a move aimed at repairing another aspect of the team, like, say, the bullpen.

Dustin Pedroia is revered in Boston for his scrappy, always-play-hard, can-do attitude. But in recent seasons this approach has contributed to injury and the desire to rush rehab efforts in order to get back on the field. Ironically, doing so can lead to more time on the disabled list, or diminished performance upon return. Pedroia talked to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com about the hamstring injury he suffered this past season, how his returning to play too early was costly and his regret for not allowing himself more time to heal.

I think that any time Pedro Martinez reflects on his time in Boston it is a must-read (or listen, or watch). The latest is Pedro talking with Chad Finn of Boston.com about his six-inning, no-hit relief performance in Game 5 of the 1999 American League Division Series (ALDS) against the vaunted offense of the Cleveland Indians. Pedro was pitching hurt that day. Last year, he told Jonah Keri of Grantland that his relief-outing in the 1999 ALDS permanently damaged his arm.

How about another article about a former-Red Sox great? Jim Litke of the Associated Press writes about Manny Ramirez’s current role as a coach (of some sort) with the Chicago Cubs. Manny is being Manny, primarily helping the younger, hispanic players on the club, but is also around to talk hitting with anyone who will listen.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The Red Sox’s 2015 pitching staff has been a disaster. They rank 27^th, 23^rd, and 14^th by ERA, FIP, and DRA, respectively. It is clear that Dave Dombrowski has work to do this offseason to fix this significant flaw. While an established way to build a bullpen remains elusive, having a strong starting rotation can have positive effects on the group that relieves them. Last Friday, Matthew Kory examined options for improving the rotation that could come via trade, while John Tomase of WEEI.com assessed players that will be available to the Sox through free agency. The big names that will be available are Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, David Price and Jordan Zimmerman. To me, Greinke and Price are the most attractive of this group, but will likely come with the highest price tag, making them that much more difficult to lock down. If one of those marquee players is not signed, Dombrowski could aim to get someone (or a couple of someones) from the second tier, which includes Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister and Matt Latos. Ben Cherington not signing a true ace for the 2015 team was a focus for much of this season, and certainly in some circles is considered a primary reason for why the team failed this year, but that is not an accurate assessment and as such is not really a valid reason to avoid targeting second- or third-tier guys again. Adding an arm or two to the starting rotation would allow some players who are being considered for a rotation spot to be moved to the bullpen (e.g., Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright), which should improve that aspect of the team without additional financial commitment. It is evident that there are many, many interesting decisions to be made by the Red Sox’s front office – whoever that may include – this offseason to piece together the 2016 roster.

***

One decision regarding the 2016 roster that appears to already be progressing is moving Hanley Ramirez out of left field. As you may have heard, Hanley has been an unmitigated disaster in left field this season. Moving him off the position allows the team to play Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo in the outfield full time, providing a huge upgrade defensively. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe documented how Brian Butterfield and David Ortiz have been working with Hanley at first base. Thus, it appears clear that Hanley will continue his descent down the defensive spectrum for at least another season, before likely taking the designated hitter spot when Ortiz is done. There is considerable risk that comes with playing Hanley at first base, as he now has a defensive impact on more parts of the game than he did while out in left field. I recognize the risk, but I think it is the right decision. I do not mean to suggest that it will be an easy transition, but it should be easier. Having a healthy Hanley – he has reportedly been playing through injury for much of the season – in the lineup everyday is important for the Sox’s success, so hopefully this new move works better than the last one. An interesting part of the decision to move Hanley to first is that it leaves Travis Shaw in limbo for (at least) another season. Since being called up to the big leagues Shaw has done nothing but perform well: .301 TAv in 112 plate appearances (PA), and 1.3 fielding runs above average (FRAA) at first base. Hanley moving to first keeps Shaw without a clear everyday role on the 2016 major league team, but Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com suggests that Shaw is also an option at third base. However, having Shaw at third requires trading one of Hanley or Pablo Sandoval, which is another can of worms. For next year, Shaw will end up as a bench option on the major league club or spend the season at Pawtucket, and his role will be re-evaluated as part of the plan for the 2017 Red Sox.

Quick Hits

Transitioning to a new team, city, fanbase, and manager can take different periods of time for different players. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe writes that Rick Porcello is a player for whom the acclimation process took longer than expected, and that may have contributed to his early season performance woes.

Through Monday’s game Xander Bogaerts has a .405 slugging and a .090 isolated power, which are both considerably lower than was expected of him, but Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis does not care. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal describes how the team is happy with Xander’s approach at the plate, in which he consistently makes contact and shows a willingness to drive the ball the other way.

Joe Kelly had a really nice month of August, earning a win in each of his six starts, which has Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com comparing Kelly to Pedro Martinez. While Kelly has been better of late, we should probably pump the brakes on him now being an elite starter. In his August starts, Kelly struck out fewer batters than is typical, walked more, induced fewer ground balls, and stranded a really high percentage of baserunners.

As mentioned, it has been a tumultuous month for the Red Sox organization, placing many people in difficult and likely temporary positions. Acting manager Torey Lovullo is one such person. But as Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe notes in his excellent feature of Lovullo, he has handled the change admirably and should be considered this offseason for any available managerial positions.

Three Good Game Stories

The Sox earned a victory over the Mets and Matt Harvey on Friday night, a win that Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes provided one of the few positive memorable moments of the season.

The Red Sox let a sweep of the Mets slip through their fingers on Sunday. Sean Mcadam suggests that poor execution in the series finale brought the Red Sox’s spoiler ways to a temporary halt.

Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox squeaked out a win over the Yankees on Monday night. Rodriguez, given extra rest coming into the start, was not at his best, but Michael Silverman of the BostonHerald.com reminds us that Rodriguez has pitched well against the difficult Yankees’ lineup three times in his young career.

Photo by Jason Getz/USA Today Sports Images