Put this all together, and it is easy to see how 2017 appears like it will be the culmination of the Astros’ tear-down and rebuild, along with the fulfillment of Sports Illustrated’s 2014 prediction of them winning the World Series. Beating the Astros seems daunting. Given the Red Sox’s underdog status, it is worth considering how their style of play, namely aggressive baserunning, putting the ball in play, and strong defense particularly in the outfield, matches up against these daunting Astros.

Aggressive Baserunning

The Red Sox ran wild on the basepaths this year. A few weeks ago I expressed my concerns with their approach to baserunning, and not much has changed since. They attempted 137 stolen bases this year, seventh most in baseball. They took an extra base 43 percent of the time, tied for the third highest rate in baseball. They advanced on fly balls, passed balls and wild pitches 175 times, which was tied for the fourth most in baseball. Trying to take an extra base is of course a worthy effort, but there are costs, which is where my concerns entered the frame. Red Sox batters’ aggression on the bases resulted in 118 baserunning outs (81 Outs on the Bases [OOB], 31 caught stealing, six pickoffs). That total was the third-highest in baseball this year. By now I am sure you get the point: they tried to push bags and made a lot of outs doing so, ultimately leading to below average results (-3.5 BRR). The Astros were similarly aggressive on the bases, but I will leave that for now, and instead focus on how Houston fared in limiting opponents base running efforts.

The most obvious place to start is with the Astros’ control of the base stealing game. By the simplest measure, stolen base percentage, the Astros were miserable at holding runners. Their 88 SB%-allowed (116 attempts) was the worst in baseball and six percentage points ahead of the second worst White Sox. BP’s advanced catching metrics include Swipe Rate Above Average (SRAA), which attempts to account for things like pitchers’ times to the plate and quality of baserunners. By SRAA, among catchers with at least 2,000 pitches received, Evan Gattis and Brian McCann (Houston’s two primary catchers) were third and fifth worst. With this in mind, Red Sox runners should feel comfortable trying to steal a base, and this goes especially for late game pinch runners like Rajai Davis.

Stealing bases, while the most salient part of a team’s baserunning, is only one part. Advancing extra bases on balls to the outfield is another critical part. An example of just how important tagging up on a flyball can be happened in Game 7 of last year’s World Series. As noted, the Red Sox have been aggressive in trying to take extra bases, but against the Astros they should take greater caution. The Astros feature outfielders with strong arms. By both Fangraph’s ARM measure and Baseball Reference’s Total Zone Outfield Arm Runs Above Average, the Astros outfielders have the best group of arms among the teams remaining. George Springer, Josh Reddick, Derek Fisher, and Marwin Gonzalez each rated above average. I know Brian Butterfield wants the team to move away from being a station-to-station team, but giving up outs is not an ideal way to do so. I am interested in seeing if the Red Sox tone things down a bit in this series.

Making Contact

The Red Sox finished the season among the league leaders in Contact percentage, trailing only Houston and Cleveland for top spot. Much has been made about the Red Sox’s inability to hit home runs, or their general lack of power. Instead they were a group that strung hits and walks together to score runs and had strong plate appearances against the power pitchers of the league. The good news is that most of the Astros’ rotation includes pitchers who would be classified as power pitchers, at least by Baseball-Reference’s split definition. These are the types of pitchers against whom the Red Sox have fared well, relative to the rest of the league. In accordance with the power pitcher label, Astros hurlers tend to strike a lot of guys out – they finished third in baseball in strikeout rate – but as you know the Red Sox do not strike out very often. Something is going to give here.

We know that when the Red Sox put the ball in play it tends to stay in the yard. Putting the ball in play means the Houston defense will be tested and they were not exactly a strong group on defense:

Note: UZR is not available for catchers and I was not sure about how to combine Gonzalez’s infielding (generally bad) and outfielding (generally good) numbers.

The differences across metrics are difficult to reconcile, and because these numbers are based on a single season of data we are dealing with wide confidence intervals, but you can see this group lacked something on the defensive side of the game. Ideally the Red Sox’s put-it-in-play approach can take advantage of this.

Defense

While we lauded Red Sox batter’s ability to avoid strikeouts, the Astros were even better; two full percentage points better. They hit home runs, hit for power, and they run. Simply put, the Astros’ offense is excellent. This means the Red Sox’s defense will need to be on point. There were times this season when the Red Sox struggled defensively and it lead to frustrating games. However, in the end they finished as a top three defensive group by DRS and UZR. Here is a table for Red Sox’s defenders similar to the one I gave above for the Astros:

Mookie’s numbers are just silly. BP sees Jackie Bradley’s defense as below average, which is surprising, but otherwise things are in line with what I expected and you can see this was a strong defensive group. They can go and get it, which should help tamp down the Astros lineup that puts the ball in play, and give Red Sox pitchers confidence that they can attack within the strike zone.

All told, it seems like the Red Sox’s style of aggressive baserunning, hitting for contact, and playing strong defense line up well against this Astros team. That is not a startling revelation, as for the most part those things line-up well against any team and that is why the Red Sox won their division. Nevertheless, I understand how the Red Sox come into the series as the underdog. The Astros are an excellent baseball team. But the Red Sox are at least a really good one, and the differences between these teams are not that large in a best-of-five series. Especially when the Red Sox can send Chris Sale to the mound for two of the five games (if necessary). On his own, Sale is as important as any other factor on this Red Sox team this postseason. Getting a solid outing from him tonight and taking Game 1 is critical for the Red Sox’s chances of winning the series. I will certainly be watching the aspects of the Red Sox’s style I outlined above, but mostly I’m just excited for the series to be underway.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

The game was the Red Sox’s 18th extra inning game this season, which is the third-most in baseball this year, trailing only the Blue Jays and Giants, who have each played 19 extra-inning affairs. Those teams have played more extra-inning games, but they significantly trail the Red Sox in the number of extra innings. The good and fun fellas in Boston have played 59 extra innings, 12 more than the Jays and 14 more than the Giants. It’s not like the Sox are out there offering free Werther’s Originals or some other trash candy, they are giving out the good stuff, winning 15 of their 18 beyond-nine tilts. Compare that with Toronto, who only has five wins in their 19 extra-inning games. In any case, all of this extra, tense baseball being played by the Red Sox got me thinking about leverage, and something Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote a little while back about how, by average leverage index, baseball has been boring this year. Not so in Boston.

The idea of boredom is a subjective issue, but as Sullivan points out, average leverage is at its lowest point since it has been something we record. Given that leverage index (LI) essentially measures the tension of a situation, so if it is low, as it has been in 2017, then the game(s) are lacking some excitement. LI has nothing to do with pennant races, or win streaks, and doesn’t know that Andrew Benintendi is standing in the batter’s box with his beautiful flow going. It is a plate-appearance-by-plate-appearance-within-a-game thing. As such, the LI of a game between the Phillies and Padres in May can be identical to that between the Blue Jays and Orioles in last year’s Wild Card game. Your average baseball situation has a leverage index of 1. High leverage is greater than 1. It is a number that attempts to measure that feeling of your stomach fluttering as you watch your team in close games. You know like, for example, an extra inning game where a single swing of the bat can send everyone home.

With all of the extra innings (and other close games) the Red Sox have played this year, 11.4 percent of their plate appearances and 9.2 percent of their batters faced have come in high leverage moments. On the offensive side of things, that is the third-highest rate in baseball, while the pitching mark is middle of the pack at 15th. After combining hitting and pitching numbers, the Red Sox’s 1.02 average leverage index is the third-highest in baseball this year:

You can see that there is not a lot of spread between highest and lowest. Nevertheless, the Red Sox’s 1.02 LI is 6.25 percent above league average (LI+, I suppose), which is a top-50 mark all-time. I am not sure that is necessarily interesting, but it is another example of how this team has stood out within the current season. You can see that leverage does not care much about pennant races or other season-long notions of a moment’s importance, as the also-ran Blue Jays and Giants are near the top; all those extra-inning games have impacted their LI as well. Unlike those teams, and a few others on the left-side of that figure, the Red Sox have played playoff-position-relevant games all year. Their life in the high-leverage lane is perhaps even more impressive when considering the constant importance of winning games in order to keep a safe distance ahead of the Yankees. But is it meaningful?

Given all of the above, there certainly exists a temptation to describe the Red Sox as a battle-tested team that will be ready to handle the intensity of playoff baseball. They will be able to ‘Take-17’, as the new terrible slogan goes. Of course this might be true. After all, it is clear they have earned considerable reps in tense moments and won a lot of extra-inning games. But while the pitching (and defense) has performed well in high leverage spots, the offense has not; a general truism for the season. Regardless, are those moments the same, or even similar enough to playoff games to actually help? Do they accumulate to provide something tangible? I have no idea. Maybe. At the very least they are experiences that can be drawn upon. Alternatively, playing six games worth of extra-innings and many other tense moments has worn them out, and it would have been better if they just crushed fools all year and leisurely worked through more low-leverage innings (e.g., Cleveland and Houston).Again, I don’t know which is better. But if/when the Red Sox do win a bunch of games in October, I think we should be hesitant to ascribe the October wins to their experience above the leverage line over the course of the season, character-narratives be damned.

Photo by Patrick McDermott – USA TODAY Sports

The struggles against left-handed starters are present for the majority of the guys who makeup the regular lineups:

With the caveat that we are playing with small samples of plate appearances and recognizing that OPS is not the best measure of offensive production, Chris Young, Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts’ inability to do damage against lefty starters this year is alarming. They are all down at least 300 points from last year and 190 points from their career marks. Xander has been playing hurt and it is killing him at the plate. Likewise, Hanley’s shoulder injury affected him and likely had a knock-on effect on Young’s opportunities. Despite Young’s struggles, the Red Sox seem to be happy to move forward with him as the fourth-outfielder-primary-righty-bench-bat for the playoffs. They could have promoted Bryce Brentz, who has crushed lefties for Triple-A Pawtucket (.279/.380/.577), but elected not to. In Young we trust, I guess.

It is worth mentioning that in 2016 the Red Sox’s offense, which was largely made up of the same guys as this year, also performed considerably worse against left-handed starters than against right-handed starters (.758 v .824). However some of that was a function of rough luck in scheduling, as the lefties they lined up against last year included six top-50 starters (by BP’s WARP): Jose Quintana (twice), Chris Sale, James Paxton, Madison Bumgarner, Danny Duffy, and Dallas Keuchel. They knocked Quintana and Keuchel around, but the point stands. Given my mentioning this fact, you might think the 2017 difficulty against lefties has also been a function of who they have faced, but the difficult-opponent issue has not really been present this year. Only Paxton and Quintana currently qualify as top-50 starters among the lefties they have opposed in 2017. If you only saw bunt-hating C.C. Sabathia’s starts against the Red Sox (1.04 RA9 in 26.0 innings) you might think he was the class of the league, but his 4.8 RA9 in his 105.0 not-against-the-Red-Sox innings shows he is not and makes me even more mad about how he has dominated them this year.

All of this might come across as another pessimistic article about another fatal flaw of this 2017 Red Sox team. While there is a clear difficulty against lefty-starters, the Red Sox have patched together enough of an offense to complement their strong pitching and defense, and be in control of the American League East with strong odds of making the postseason. What’s more is that other than the Yankees, who could throw three left-handed starters in a playoff series (Sabathia, Jamie Garcia, and Jordan Montgomery), none of the other likely playoff teams in the AL feature left-handed heavy rotations. The Cleveland “21 Straight” Windians have an entirely right-handed rotation, and Keuchel is the lone lefty in the Astros’ starting corps. Don’t get me wrong, the Red Sox will be in really tough against either of those rotations in a Division Series, but considering the offense’s performance to date, the lack of lefties could make the task a little easier. And of course, given the track records of the guys on this team, the offense can be much better.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Amidst all of that, there was interesting player development: the oft-vilified David Price threw a couple of bullpen sessions, has been scheduled for a sim-game, and appears to be on track for getting back with the team. This got me wondering about what Price’s role will be going forward and how to best fit him onto a playoff roster.

He could take the ball and perform like his old, dominant self for seven-ish innings four or five times next month, but what is the likelihood of that? From my perspective, it is low.

I would love to see a healthy David Price start games for the Red Sox before this season is out, but given his current status, it seems unlikely that he will have enough time to get stretched out for a start before the postseason. The idea of Price’s first start since July 22 coming in a potentially pivotal playoff game concerns me. Of course, he could take the ball and perform like his old, dominant self for seven-ish innings four or five times next month, but what is the likelihood of that? From my perspective, it is low. This estimation has nothing to do with the ridiculous idea that he is bound to wilt when the calendar turns to October. Rather, it comes from the fact that he has been dealing with a balky elbow since March, and owing to that, hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitch in six weeks. As such, I think the better course of action is to move away from getting Price ready for a spot in the rotation and toward preparing him for a role as a reliever.

With a little under a month to go before the playoffs start, Price has plenty of time to get his arm and mindset ready for a mid-game jog to the mound from right field and, barring any further setbacks in his rehab, he should get an opportunity to actually do so a few times in real, live games. Price’s arsenal is well-suited for life as a one-or-two-inning reliever. Generally, relievers possess a strong fastball and at least one secondary offering that keeps hitters from sitting on the hard stuff all night. Price checks both of these boxes. He still runs his four-seamer/sinker into the mid-90s, and plays off it with his cutter and changeup to keep hitters off balance and generate swings and misses. I could also talk about Price’s experience as a dominating reliever, including playoff action (as the 2008 Red Sox likely remember). I suppose those early days of his career provide an experience from which Price could draw something, but it was 15.1 innings, ten years ago, so I doubt it has much bearing on how he might fare as a reliever in 2017.

Moving Price to a relief role brings the advantages of limiting his workload (and potential stress on the elbow), prevents him from worrying about pacing himself, and keeps him from having to navigate a lineup multiple times, which has been an issue in his starts this year. First time through the order Price has held opponents to a .568 OPS. That ranks 20th best among the 179 starters who have at least 90 batters faced, and places him alongside guys like Jimmy Nelson, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray. Decent company to have. The problem is that the second time through the order opposing batters have knocked Price around to the tune of a .798 OPS, which ranks 99th among the 177 starters who have faced at least 90 batters the second time through. Any guesses at who leads the way in OPS-against the second time through the order (with at least 90 batters faced)? The answer is Doug Fister at .487. Fister has been a real gem for the Red Sox. By OPS-against, Fister (-.416), Rick Porcello (-.072), Eduardo Rodriguez (-.082), and Drew Pomeranz (-.156) have all been better the second time through the order, while Chris Sale has been slightly worse (.071). But Sale is still holding opponents to a comically low .581 OPS in their second trip, so we needn’t be worrying too much about him. In any case, it seems as though keeping Price from facing a lineup multiple times could be a valuable strategy to undertake.

It is worth noting that the 230 point jump in OPS Price has surrendered this year while working a lineup for the second time is based on a small number of batters faced and is not typical for him. For his career, Price has allowed a .655 OPS the first time through the order and a .682 OPS the second time. Generally, relying on career numbers is better practice, but it is safe to say that Price’s 2017 is different because of the elbow issue and therefore evaluating it separately, albeit cautiously, could be informative.

So what might Price look like as a reliever? As noted above, his outings in 2008 as a reliever likely provide little usable information. So to get a sense of how Price’s numbers could change with a move to the bullpen we can employ Tom Tango’s Rule of 17. Derived from almost four decades of data, this rule states that as a reliever BABIP is 17 points lower, strikeout rate is 17% higher, home runs per contact is 17% lower, and walk rate remains the same. For Price this would give something like the following:

I give the numbers based off of Price’s career numbers and 2017-only numbers because like I said, 2017 stands out as being different due to the issue with his elbow. Regardless of the baseline used, those are some pretty attractive numbers. Add a David Price pitching with rates like those to a bullpen with Craig Kimbrel, Addison Reed, Brandon Workman, and Carson Smith, and you are going to give opposing teams fits from the sixth inning on. This is especially so in the playoffs where the numerous off-days and greater sense of urgency pushes the idea of more liberal and creative use of elite relievers, as Terry Francona, Joe Maddon, and Dave Roberts successfully demonstrated last year. Obviously Price’s elbow situation will present some limits on his use, but 30-50 pitch outings once or twice every three days doesn’t seem unreasonable.

I am not the first person to suggest moving Price into a relief role. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald made it a couple of weeks ago, and a couple of the great BP Boston fellas discussed it with Alex Speier on the most recent episode of The Red Seat podcast. Regardless of who came first with the idea, I would like to see the Red Sox put it into practice. Perhaps this is already the case and they are just being secretive to prevent Price from having to answer a bunch of questions about a role change. Probably need one of them special Apple Watches to find out their true plans. Kidding aside, this season Price has gone to rather extreme lengths to demonstrate his desire to be there for his teammates and to be a good teammate. From my standpoint, accepting and even pushing for a role in the bullpen for the playoffs would be a great example of this.

Photo by Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports

The central player in if and how the roster takes further shape is Dustin Pedroia. His return to the disabled list with the knee issue that has bothered him for the better part of the season raises a number of potential issues. John Farrell expects Pedroia back before the season’s end, which is great, but Pedroia’s comments sound less confident. If Pedroia can make it back fully healthy, and you accept my suggestion of the Red Sox being in a comfortable position, then he should take as long as he needs to get himself ready for October. There is no need for him to rush back to playing in two weeks. That would be shortsighted. While Pedroia has been one of the best hitters (.273 TAv) and all-around players on the team, the difference between Pedroia and his likely replacements, Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt, will be at most a win or two over the next six weeks. There are other effects, like how having Nunez play second base everyday reduces how versatile he can be, and in turn limiting potential off-days for other guys. But if Pedroia can get back for the playoffs that is the best course of action for the interim. Then come October, Nunez can resume his utility-ish role. So, take your time, Dustin. Get healthy and ready to rip in October.

Pedroia coming back to the team healthy in six weeks is obviously Plan A, but we should also consider the scenario in which the likelihood of him being healthy in time for October baseball is as low as his comments make it seem. Having Nunez as the starting second baseman for the playoffs, and adding Deven Marrero or Tzu-Wei Lin to the roster is not ideal. Rather, the team should consider acquiring a middle-infielder from outside the organization before August 31st (so that he is eligible for the playoff roster). Doing so reinstates the indirect effects of Nunez’s versatility (e.g., off days for guys like Devers and Xander Bogaerts down the stretch), keeps Holt from getting overused, and should provide a credible bat. It is unlikely that Nunez keeps up his current level of offense, and, all nice stories and two decent weeks of play aside, Marrero and Lin are not the guys you want to be sending to the plate very often in a playoff series.

The options for players to acquire are limited – and the whole waiver process could put the kibosh on the Red Sox making anything happen. But there are a few interesting names out there. Ian Kinsler would head the list but he was already claimed by a mystery team (that wears Red Sox?) on his journey through waivers, with no transaction coming to fruition between the Tigers and the Mysteries. The next two players I think are interesting (and could be available due to their contract status) are Brandon Phillips, and old friend Jed Lowrie. Phillips, playing for the Braves this year, is hitting .286/.329/.430 (.265 TAv) on the year, and, while not great with the glove at this point in his career, is around average. There are luxury tax concerns with the Red Sox adding Phillips, as he is owed around $2 million more this season. The Cincinnati Reds are paying basically all of his salary while he plays in Atlanta, but I am not sure that would continue if he were sent to Boston. Lowrie has hit better than Phillips so far this year (.270/.346/.438; .272 TAv), is projected to hit better the rest of the way, and would be a smaller financial hit: he is owed around $1 million more this season. Neither Phillips nor Lowrie has to come over and set the world on fire. They merely provide a dependable everyday option that keeps flexibility within the roster that should be valuable down the stretch and come playoff time.

While we are here, I will note that if the Red Sox get to poking around the Athletics’ roster, they should put mind to acquiring Rajai Davis. I would love to see the Red Sox go with 14 position players on their playoff roster(s) in order to make space for a guy like Davis to be a burner off the bench. It is lazy, but to sell the idea I will make the obligatory Dave Roberts reference. You might remember that he had a nice postseason moment as the team’s speed threat off the bench. Also, if Rajai were added, he and Devers could discuss hitting huge home runs off Aroldis Chapman. It really would be an all-around win for the team. I am going to be sad when they post a 13-pitcher playoff roster.

Much of this might ring as putting the cart before the horse, but these sorts of seemingly minor roster moves could have tangible benefits. A plan should be in place for a Pedroia-less October. Of course the difference between a Lowrie or Phillips and Marrero or Lin could be nothing or even negative, as variance in small series/samples is considerable. Maybe Davis isn’t ever presented with an opportunity to steal a base in a critical moment. But betting on the better players and being ready to with a guy who can get that important stolen base is a better approach, and due to Pedroia’s uncertain status and the roster rules, that means thinking about these issues now.

Photo by Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

It goes without saying that every team in the postseason wants to get off to a good start in every series. This is particularly true in a five-game series. Obviously, it’s more important to win the first game the shorter a series gets. If you win Game One of a five-game series, you are 33 percent of the way to the next round.

Just how important is it, though? Is it so important that we should start preparing our own personal meltdowns if the Sox lose the series opener? Let’s look at some recent history to see what we can figure out.

In order to do this, I looked back at the last 10 years of Division Series results. That gives us 40 series to choose from, an ample sample size to determine a trend that becomes fairly obvious sooner rather than later. Of the 40 series, 31 teams who have won the first game of the series went on to win the series, giving them a .775 winning percentage. Furthermore, in six of the 10 years I looked at, all four teams who won the first game ended up going on to the LCS.

That’s not the only factor at play here, though. The Red Sox are on the road, and there are two ways to look at this. The first is that this inherently makes them the worse team since they couldn’t secure home field advantage. Given how close this particular race was, that doesn’t really work in this case. The other way to look at this is that, if the Red Sox win the opener, they have an even bigger advantage.

You hear it in every playoff series in every sport: If the road team wins Game One, they suddenly take over home field advantage. However, that second line of thinking hasn’t really played out. In this 10-year sample, 18 road teams have taken the first game of a Division Series. Those teams have gone on to win the series 13 times, giving them a .722 winning percentage. That’s clearly a high winning percentage, but it’s slightly worse than the overall record.

Once again, there is another layer to this I found interesting. Teams have recently shown a greater ability to come back after losing the first game. From 2006 through 2010, teams were 19-1, with the 2006 Yankees being the only team to win the first game and still lose the series. Things have changed pretty drastically since then, with Game One winners going just 12-8. Last season, three of the four Game One winners actually went on to lose the series. One would think the growing parity through the game has something to do with it. Even 10 years ago, the top of the league was utterly dominant, so they were much more likely to take command of a series early on.

All this is arguably good news for the Red Sox. However you feel about the Rick Porcello vs. David Price debate for Game One, Boston will have a strong pitcher on the mound. Cleveland, meanwhile, lost Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco to injury and were forced to push Corey Kluber back to Game Two. This leaves Trevor Bauer to take on Porcello. Bauer has shown flashes of success both this year and throughout his career, but he’s never been able to put it together consistently. Of course, baseball teams lose with the pitching advantage all the time, so the Red Sox are probably only something like 55 percent favorites.

So, I think it’s pretty clear that winning Game One is hugely important. Again, this isn’t all that surprising in a five-game series, and I would expect the numbers to be different in a seven-game set. If the Red Sox are fortunate enough to play in one of those, perhaps I’ll do this again. My advice would be to set your meltdown-o-meter to a six if the Red Sox lose Game One. History shows that’s a tough place to be, particularly if you lose to a home team.

However, recent history has been much more kind to Game One losers. Plus, if there’s one word you can use to describe this Red Sox team, it’s resilient.

Going Deep

The Red Sox are in good standing within the American League East; Baseball Prospectus has their probability of winning the division at 94.6%. So it is a pretty safe bet they will be playing in one of the two AL Division Series which means we can start considering how to align the starting rotation for that series. Given that the series is only five games played over seven nights, a rotation of three guys will work. David Price pitches Games 1 and 4,* while Rick Porcello throws Games 2 and 5 (or reverse those two names). So who throws Game 3? The candidates are Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Clay Buchholz. Two lefties and a righty. Here are their likely opponents wRC+ splits:

Man, it would be nice to play that luck-filled, below average Rangers’ offense. Other than the Rangers and Blue Jays, it appears as though the best option is to use one of the two lefty options – this is especially true if the Orioles are the opponent. While Pomeranz (3.40 ERA, 3.25 DRA) has had a better season than Rodriguez (4.84 ERA, 5.96 DRA), he has struggled lately, which Ian Browne of MLB.com suggests is due to fatigue. With this considered, perhaps riding the recently effective (and not fatigued) Rodriguez (3.18 ERA, 17/5 K/BB in September) is the better course of action.

Using Rodriguez in the rotation for the ALDS moves Pomeranz and Buchholz to the bullpen to relieve and wait for a chance to start in the ALCS should the team get that far. Buchholz has been shuffled all over the place this season and was all but written off around the trade deadline. Since then he has relieved and started effectively, and looks ahead to an opportunity to be relied upon to close out a division championship and take the ball in a potentially pivotal ALCS game. He recently spoke with David Laurila of FanGraphs about this issue as part of larger discussion on the need to be constantly adjusting over his career.

The pitching will garner a lot of our attention (for example, I just broke down the splits of potential opponents to determine the rotation two weeks ahead of that being necessary) and will likely be blamed for any team flameout. But really if the Red Sox are going to make a deep run in the playoffs this year their offense will need to carry them.

An important part of that Red Sox offense is Hanley Ramirez, who, in 2016, has emerged as the force that we expected when he signed with the team prior to last season. In the last 30 days, Hanley has been a man on fire, posting a .340/.405/.728 slashline with 12 home runs. On the season his line is up to .293/.363/.515 (.281 TAv, 129 wRC+). To put that in a perspective relevant to Red Sox fans: in 2015 his on-base percentage was .291, two points worse than his current batting average. Simply put, Hanley has been a force in the middle of the order. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more details on Hanley’s one-year transformation from a relatively easy out with little power, to a difficult out with frightening power.

Stories of positive clubhouse chemistry and player character tend to go hand-in-hand with a team’s results. When a team is winning, they have a strong chemistry. When a player is performing well, they are engaged and a leader in the clubhouse. Which thing comes first – winning or chemistry/character/leadership – remains to be demonstrated cleanly, so reading too much into these common narratives should be done with caution. Hanley Ramirez is often a strong example of this sort of story. When things are good, Hanley is a leader who has put his malcontent ways behind him (example, another example). So perhaps Michael Silverman’s article in the Boston Herald suggesting that Hanley has taken a leadership role on the 2016 Red Sox should not be surprising given Hanley’s (and the team’s) performance this year. Regardless of if Hanley’s clubhouse approach changed before the season or once things started rolling well for him, his presence as a veteran is an interesting, albeit peripheral, aspect to consider, especially given the article’s focus on his relationship with Yoan Moncada. Ideally Hanley just keeps hitting rockets all over the field and is, in turn, a positive influence on the younger players for the remainder of his Red Sox tenure.

Quick Hits

Much like Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello was a much maligned aspect of the 2015 Red Sox. His contract extension was questioned and likely contributed to Ben Cherington’s ouster. But this year Porcello is demonstrating his worth. His ERA is down almost two runs (4.92 to 3.08), with corresponding drops in FIP (4.13 to 3.44) and DRA (4.14 to 3.44). In light of Porcello’s 2016 performance, Alex Speier wonders what Porcello would be worth if he hit the free agent market now. All things considered, it now seems reasonable to view the extension Porcello signed with the Red Sox as a bargain. What a difference a year can make.

There was a time in the not too distant past that the Red Sox’s bullpen looked as though it would be the team’s undoing. However, lately that outlook has changed entirely and now the ‘pen appears to be a strength. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive notes that the relief group is rested and deep and ready for a postseason run. Tim Britton of The Providence Journal outlines a similar sentiment and suggests that the key to the bullpen’s about-face might be the return of Koji Uehara, who has resumed his eighth inning role with great success. What a difference a few weeks can make.

The Red Sox have players in the mix in a few of the end-of-year award categories, the foremost being American League MVP. While Mike Trout leads the universe in all forms of wins-above-replacement, voters will not necessarily perform a sort-by-WAR before filling out their MVP ballots. This means Mookie Betts, who has the second most WAR in the AL according to all three major forms of the measurement, has a chance to win. He is on a winning team, has 200+ hits, has 30+ HR and 100+ RBI, etc.. Yet, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe suggests that Mookie may not even be the clear choice for the award on the Red Sox, as David Ortiz’s incredible final season deserves recognition.

Let’s take another moment to appreciate David Ortiz. Through Tuesday’s games here are Big Papi’s 2016 numbers and where they rank all-time among seasons by a 40+ year old (courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

He is putting on an awesome show. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald recaps Ortiz’s recent meeting with the media in which he reflected on his career, his teammates, the 2016 Red Sox’s playoff chances, and the the possibility of being enshrined in Cooperstown.

A significant part of Mookie Betts’ MVP resume is his stellar defense in right field. A month ago in this Read Sox series I detailed how important the improved Red Sox defense has been to their success this season, specifically highlighting stories on Mookie’s arm. This time around we can appreciate his range. Deesha Thosar at MLB.com examines, with the help of Statcast, two awesome catches that Mookie made against the Yankees.

The Red Sox’s lone trade deadline acquisition was LOOGY Fernando Abad but he has been… well you’ve probably seen Ben Carsley’s article on the foreshadowing that exists in reliever last names. Abad’s performance has left open the role of LOOGY and 27-year old Robby Scott has made the most of his opportunities to assume it. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald outlines Scott’s long road to the major leagues and appreciation of all that came along the way. Scott has an excellent chance to add to his story with some high leverage moments in the postseason.

Three Good Game Stories

On Tuesday night, Eduardo Rodriguez was good-Eduardo and the offense managed to get things going off Kevin Gausman in a way they were unable to a week ago. The win made it six straight for the Sox and pushed their division lead over the O’s to five games with 11 to play. In his game story, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes that Rodriguez made a strong case to be the No. 3 starter for the team going forward. Hopefully he carries Tuesday’s result into his next start.

On Sunday, the Red Sox effectively ended the Yankees’ chances at a playoff spot this season, as they finished off the four-game series sweep. It was the first time the Red Sox swept a four-game series against the Yankees since 1990. Chris Mason of the Boston Herald has more on the hero of the night, Hanley Ramirez, who hit two home runs and earned a curtain call from the Fenway faithful.

Last Thursday the Red Sox got arguably their best win of the season when they rallied for five runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Yankees. Hanley Ramirez was the hero again, sending a 99mph Dellin Betances fastball to the moon for a walk-off homer. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe details how exciting the win was for the young players on the team who are experiencing a playoff run for the first time in their careers.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images

Sounds awful? Excellent. Let’s dig in! We’ll lay out this list of every starter the Red Sox used this season and now Spin! Oh, I’m sorry, you got Roenis Elias. Hope you enjoyed your season!

The silly thing is Boston wasn’t really ever that far from something that disastrous. The Red Sox offense, yesterday notwithstanding, has been lapping the field, enough to keep the team in playoff contention despite less-than-stellar starters for most of the season. There was Ellias and his reversed strikeout-to-walk ratio, Sean O’Sullivan and the imaginary leprechaun outfit he always wore in my head, Joe Kelly and his [finger quotes] great stuff.

Every team has sixth, seventh and eighth starters who match those descriptions. But the Red Sox’s problem wasn’t Kelly, or O’Sullivan; it was the guys in front of them who were pitching like Kelly and O’Sullivan. Clay Buchholz was expected to be the number two, but was so atrocious he was kicked out of the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez was supposed to be the future number two, but got hurt and was so bad when he returned that he was sent to the minors. Heck, David Price didn’t post a sub-4.00 ERA in any month of the season until July! The rotation, which was supposed to be, if not a strength, then not a weakness, reached a point where Boston was depending on the Kelly’s and O’Sullivans of the world just to make it through the week.

Through the first half of the season, Red Sox starters posted a 4.72 ERA collectively, and it would have been much worse if Steven Wright hadn’t stepped into the rotation and saved everyone’s bacon as much as one starter can. He’s a bacon saver, that Steven Wright!

Maybe the strangest thing about the baseball season is how things change. We never seem to see it coming either. One month the rotation is just terrible, the next it’s the strength of the team. Happens every year.

Look at last season’s Tigers. They put up the second best OPS by any team in baseball in the first half. Well, they have a good offense so wipe your hands and move on, right? No, because they’re an example, so you know there’s a catch. Here it is: They fell apart in the second half, putting up the 20th best OPS in baseball. Yes, OPS isn’t a great stat, I know, I know, but it proves the overall point, which is, things change. The Tigers offense was good. Then it wasn’t. These things happen over the course of the summer, and often we don’t see them coming.

That happened this year to your Red Sox. In fact, it happened just this past month. Red Sox starters put up the 11th worst ERA in baseball in the first half of this season. In the second half? They’re fourth best in baseball. Crazy, right? It is! Consider all these things:

1. David Price’s pitching has started to reflect the peripheral stats we’ve been talking about here at BP Boston since the beginning of the season. The strange thing is, Price’s peripherals in the second half of the season look like they belong to the ERA he posted in the first half! Is he pitching better now? Yes? Maybe? No?

2. Eduardo Rodriguez couldn’t get an out. He gave up nine runs to the Rays in 2.2 innings! Since coming back from the minors, he’s given up, in order, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 1 and zero runs.

3. Clay Buchholz was in the same boat. He’d start pitching, and the ball would just get crushed. Now he can get major league pitchers out. What? How?

4. They added Drew Pomerantz and other than his first start, he’s been excellent.

I don’t want to throw a bunch of exclamation points and question marks at you, drop hashtag #analysis at your feet, and then go home, but small bits of baseball can be impossible to use to analyze future events. David Price wasn’t good for two months, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be bad the two months after that. It also doesn’t mean he won’t either.

There are always reasons behind things, reasons that explain why something happened. Maybe Price mislocated that crucial fastball with men on base, or Eddie hung a slider. The question isn’t “How did that happen?”, but “What does it tell us about the future?” It’s that question that can be almost impossible to answer.

At the start of the season the Red Sox were penciling in Price to start Game 1 in the playoffs. At the end of May, had the playoffs begun then, most fans (and I suspect some portion of the Red Sox themselves) would’ve started Steven Wright. Now, after his continued brilliance and in defiance of statements made to the contrary a year ago, many Sox fans would likely opt for Rick Porcello for Game 1. But after eight shutout innings against the Rays during his last start, maybe many would switch to David Price. We are back where we started.

Except we aren’t. The Red Sox began the season with a number of question marks in the rotation, from Buchholz to Rodriguez, Kelly to Porcello. Those questions have been answered. Porcello has been fantastic. Kelly is not only out of the rotation, he’s out of the majors. Buchholz and Rodriguez have held up the back end of the rotation, for now at least, and Wright is returning from the DL to give the pitching staff a boost.

To paraphrase a famous quotation, the Red Sox are who we thought they were. We thought we knew their rotation. It consisted of an ace, a strong number two, and some up-and-comers towards the back end. That’s what they have now. The names are different, but come playoff time, whether it’s Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, or even Buchholz, the Red Sox have a strong group of starters waiting. Sure, it didn’t happen the way we all thought it would, but then that almost never happens. After all, this is baseball.

This week, however, might be an exception for the Red Sox.

The Sox are coming off a 4-2 homestand rectified by a sweep of the Diamondbacks and clinging to the second Wild Card spot with the Tigers, Mariners and Astros all breathing down their necks. Their rotation has gone from dreadful to mostly competent. The offense has gone from historically elite to pretty good (with the exception of Sunday’s blowout win). Their bullpen, well, see the recap of Wednesday’s game for more on that disaster. The Red Sox haven’t consistently looked like a playoff-caliber team since mid July, but even that success was minimal. One might argue they haven’t played like a contender since May.

That brings us to this week. This is the biggest week of the season thus far; the one we might look back on Oct. 1 and view as the make-or-break point of the summer. The optimist would view this as an opportunity. A good showing and the Sox can solidify their spot in the Wild Card. That means a chance to not only play in the single-elimination postseason round but perhaps host it.

The pessimist would view this as the beginning of the end for the 2016 Red Sox. Combine the Sox’s recent performance with the quality of opponents over an 11-game road trip, and you have a team that could spoil their playoff chances in seven days.

Let’s instead look at this week from a more moderate, realistic viewpoint. It starts with a makeup game in Cleveland against the Indians Monday afternoon, then it’s off to Baltimore, which owns the top Wild Card spot, for a pair of games and then Detroit for a massive four-game showdown against the Tigers. The Red Sox will still have another seven games with the O’s later this season, but this is the final matchup with the Tigers and the club’s last series against a contending team until Sept. 9.

How the playoff picture looks come Sunday may tell us what to expect come October.

The Sox have an ideal matchup against the Indians, who send Josh Tomlin to the mound against Drew Pomeranz. As average as Pomeranz has been since the trade to Boston, Tomlin has been a disaster, allowing seven earned runs in each of his last two outings. The Sox are 3-2 against the Indians this season.

There’s some good news and bad news pertaining the rest of the week. The numbers show the Red Sox have been better than the Tigers and Orioles throughout the season, and both teams have struggled of late. However, the Sox haven’t fared well against either opponent this year.

The Orioles surrendered their AL East lead to the Blue Jays last week and have dropped six of their last 10 contests. Baltimore has sat in first place for most of the season, but with the third-best run differential in the division, some of that may have been dumb luck. In other words, Baltimore hasn’t been as good as its record suggests. Just look at how their numbers compare to the Red Sox, who’ve been treading water for the bulk of two and a half months now.

Baltimore’s success has come behind its power and bullpen. One could argue the Red Sox are just as good, if not better, than the O’s despite what the standings show. However, Baltimore has had the better of the matchups, going 6-4 against the Sox this season. The Orioles also send their No. 1, Chris Tillman, in the series finale to take on the ever-unpredictable David Price. Tillman allowed one run over seven innings in his lone start against the Red Sox on June 14 and has had arguably his strongest season since his All-Star campaign in 2013. Tuesday’s starter, Yovani Gallardo, struggled in his lone start against the Red Sox in April but has a 2.25 ERA in his last two outings.

Those two games are important, but the four games in Detroit are even bigger. The Red Sox were swept in their lone meeting against the Tigers two weeks ago, but Detroit was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak that propelled them into the Wild Card race at the time.

Are the Tigers really a playoff team, or an average team in the thick of it thanks to one hot streak? Here’s what the numbers say:

Statistically speaking, there’s little debate that the Red Sox are better than the Tigers, who suffered a five-game losing streak last week, but, as we learned recently against the Yankees, that says little about what to expect in this series. Regardless, this is a big one. A strong showing could separate the Sox from the Tigers, and a poor showing could do the opposite, harming Boston’s postseason chances. Or they could split the series and nothing will really change.

Anyway, here’s what we can expect. Thursday’s series opener ultimately hinges on what the Red Sox can squeeze out of Clay Buchholz for the second straight outing, as he starts in place of the injured Steven Wright. While Buchholz gave Boston enough to nab a win Saturday against the D-backs, it’s anybody’s guess how he’ll perform in Detroit.

The most intriguing matchup of the series comes Friday between Rick Porcello and Michael Fulmer. Porcello has been a legitimate No. 1 for the Sox this season, while Fulmer’s rookie campain has been nothing short of impressive, with the right-hander posting a 3.17 DRA in 2016. Both pitchers use a primarily four-seamer/sinker mix that’s dependent on weak contact rather than blowing hitters away. Perhaps that means a nice, fast-paced game as well.

From there it’s Pomeranz and Daniel Norris, who has made just four starts this season, in a battle of mediocre pitchers. Then there’s the finale between Eduardo Rodriguez and Justin Verlander. Rodriguez allowed one run over seven innings against the Yankees last week, looking more like the pitcher Sox fans fell in love with last season. Meanwhile, Verlander has been in vintage form of late with a 1.78 ERA over his last eight starts.

Ultimately, this week won’t determine where the Red Sox wind up at the end of the season, but it should give us a good idea of what to expect the rest of the way. They’re capable of success against both teams, but past matchups and recent performance tells us that may not happen. But this is the story of the 2016 Red Sox, who have ridden a roller coaster of promise and disappointment again and again.

If we’re being realistic, there’s nothing wrong with settling for a .500 week, or 4-3 if you want to include the Indians game. That should keep the Red Sox in a playoff spot, or at least within a game of it, before a stretch that includes two series against the Rays and one against both the A’s and Padres. But those games won’t tell us about this team quite like this week’s. This is a stretch where the Red Sox could prove themselves worthy of our trust, and worthy of true playoff consideration once we reach the middle of September.

Photo by Winslow Townson/USA Today Sports Images

Wait, what?

At this point you must be wondering what I am prattling on about. Here it is directly: in the history of the Red Sox franchise, the first 20 games have represented a benchmark for season success. If the team played .500 baseball or better (10 or more wins), they have in some instances gone on to make the playoffs. But if they‘ve played worse than .500 ball (nine or fewer wins) the playoffs have consistently been out of reach.

The Red Sox are an 114-year-old franchise (established in 1901) that has enjoyed a reasonable amount of post-season success (22 playoff appearances). Yet, remarkably not one of those playoff appearances has come when the team started 9-11 or worse. Getting out to a below .500 record in the first 20 games has happened 46 times in Red Sox history. You’d think that at least one of those teams were unlucky or had a tough schedule in their first 20 games, but then played better over the course of the next 130-140 games and managed to secure a playoff appearance. Well, you’d be wrong. It has not happened. You can see for yourself here. For whatever reason getting a tenth win (in the first 20 games) has been crucial for this franchise. Oddly enough two of the 13 Red Sox squads that started 10-10 eventually went on to win the World Series (the 1903 and 1916 Red Sox).

The Red Sox are not necessarily a singular franchise when it comes to the overwhelming influence of the first 20 games on their playoff likelihood. The goose-egg oddity is true for four other franchises (three of whom are relatively new):

The data in the table are grouped by franchise. So 39 of the Baltimore Orioles seasons are actually St. Louis Browns seasons, and 14 of the Washington Nationals seasons are Montreal Expos seasons.

To more broadly see the trend between eventually making the playoffs and early season record, here is a figure showing the proportion of teams making the playoffs as a function of the number of wins they recorded in their first 20 games. For sample size reasons I excluded seasons in which teams had fewer than four wins, or more than 16 wins. Because we are really most interested in looking at the Red Sox, I have shown them separately in red.

As is evident, and should be to some extent expected, winning more games in the first 20 has led linearly to more playoff appearances. This is true for all teams, including the Red Sox. However, what is striking, and the reason for this discussion, is the jump for the Red Sox between the nine- and 10-win marks. Roughly 10% of the 337 nine-win non-Boston teams made the playoffs, while none of the Red Sox teams did. At 10 wins, roughly 12% of the 316 non-Boston teams made the playoffs, but four of the 13 Red Sox teams did (31%). Much of this result is just odd things happening in small samples, and it’s not uniquely predictive, but it is interesting nevertheless. And it’s a great way to justify that sinking feeling you get when the Red Sox are losing games early in the season! Historically, getting a couple of extra wins in the early going has been important for increasing the likelihood of making the playoffs, and especially so for the Red Sox.

For whatever reason getting a tenth win in the first 20 games has been crucial for this franchise.

All told, being one-game above .500 rather than one-game below .500 (just a separation of two wins) has meant a 10% difference in making the playoffs. Now, it must be said that there is likely nothing special about these first 20 games. If you checked all 20-game streaks in a season you would find the shocking result that being above .500 in those streaks more often than being below .500 leads to a better chance of making the playoffs. So we should continue to avoid overreacting to a team’s performance in the early going.

Regardless, it could be said that the 2015 Red Sox crossed an important hurdle on Friday night. Getting swept in Baltimore would have placed an ominous cloud over the season; a new curse needing to be broken if you will. But thanks in part to Brock Holt’s power stroke this team will finish no worse than 10-10 in their first 20, which means that, if history is any guide, they have at least some chance of making the playoffs this year.

We can all breathe a little easier.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Image