At the end of last week, Ben Carsley gave insight into Baseball Prospectus’ projection for the Red Sox, which, derived from PECOTA, has the team going 87-75 and claiming top spot in the American League East. But BP isn’t the only projection system in town. For example, the folks at FanGraphs have the Red Sox pegged for an AL East winning 91-71 record; slightly more favourable than BP’s projection. The FanGraphs projection comes from the Steamer and ZiPS systems, which, given the four-win difference at the team level, must differ from PECOTA for at least a few of the players. As such, I explored which Red Sox players have the largest discrepancies between the systems.

In order to make fair comparisons between systems, it is necessary to evaluate them for a common playing time. While it is certainly interesting if the projection systems expect different amounts of playing time for a given player, that difference will be reflected in their counting statistics (e.g., wins above replacement (player) [WAR(P)]). This can make it appear as though there are large differences in expected performance, when there actually are not (other than accumulating playing time). As such, I think lining things up makes comparisons between projection systems a little cleaner. With this in mind, for what you see below the hitting projections are scaled to be per-600 plate appearances (per-450 for catchers), and the pitching projections are scaled to be per-200 innings pitched for starters and per-65 innings pitched for relievers. These playing time figures can be debated, but they are intended to represent a season’s worth of time and therefore a decent baseline.

We’ll start on the hitting side. In most cases the three systems project the players in very similar ways (i.e., within one WAR(P)), but here are the Red Sox players (who will be regulars on the big league squad) for whom there is at least a one-win difference:

It turns out the differences for these players are largely driven by how the systems view the players’ defense. This makes assessing the differences considerably more difficult, as the defensive metrics that go into these systems can vary wildly in how they evaluate actual on-field performance (e.g., Dustin Pedroia last season), let alone anticipated performance. For example, all three systems expect Xander Bogaerts to be an above-average hitting-shortstop to similar degrees, but while Steamer and ZiPS project him to be a slightly below average defender (-1.8 and -2.5 fielding runs, respectively), PECOTA is really down on his defense, projecting -8.8 fielding runs above average (FRAA). The opposite situation explains the variation in Andrew Benintendi’s projections: PECOTA essentially views him as a center-fielder playing left-field, and therefore has him contributing 17 FRAA, but ZiPS, which also likes the outlook for his defense, only has him at 5.8, and Steamer projects him to be slightly below average (-0.7). Oddly enough, Jackie Bradley Jr., the team’s actual center fielder, is given the worst defensive projection by PECOTA (1.0 FRAA), while Steamer (7.1) and ZiPS (4.9) expect much better. Finally, nobody expects Sandy Leon to continue his Babe Ruth act from 2016, but only PECOTA projects his defense to be below average.

Obviously it remains to be seen which system will project the Red Sox’s (and other teams’) hitters most accurately, but in the meantime we can get an idea of the range of possibilities by looking at the average projection, and the best (highest) and worst (lowest) cases. Here is that exact thing for what I expect to be the everyday lineup (last year’s performance is included as a reference point):

There is almost a 10-win swing between the best and worst case projections, just in the everyday nine. Getting 25 wins above replacement from this group would be great. Keep in mind that a replacement level team (i.e., 0.0 WAR(P)) is expected to win around 52 games, so the best case scenario from the everyday lineup already gets the Red Sox in the neighbourhood of a .500 record. And that is without considering the bench, or the pitching.

With that said, we should consider the pitching side of things. The pitching comparisons are especially tricky due to the fact that the WAR metrics are calculated quite differently between FanGraphs (FIP-based) and BP (DRA-based). Regardless, here are the Red Sox hurlers for whom there is at least a 1-win difference:

The rotation! While to this point I have been focused on relative differences, it is worth noting that these projections are strong. The worst of the group is Eduardo Rodriguez’s at 1.8 WARP, which is fine. For the most part the differences are between PECOTA and ZiPS. As you can see, for each player ZiPS is the high-man, with PECOTA as the low-man and Steamer in the middle. This pattern is a result of the way the metrics are calculated, and makes examining the differences hard. With the exception of Fernando Abad, these three projection systems have very similar expectations (i.e., < 0.5 win difference) for the probable Red Sox relievers. But as the table above shows, when it comes to the rotation, Red Sox fans should be rooting for the ZiPS projections to best represent what will happen this coming season.

In the end, barring major injury – I am not including David Price in that category yet – the Red Sox appear to have a clear path to the division crown. But as is evident from this little exercise, the range of outcomes is considerable. We can keep this all in mind over the next six months, but regardless of which system turns out to be most accurate, it will be nice to have the players out on the diamond playing again.

Photo by Steve Mitchell – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

Projection season is upon us. Team-by-team ZiPS reports are accumulating at FanGraphs, with the Red Sox looking pretty good, and early simulations of the season have the Red Sox posting the second-best winning percentage in the game, with a 91-71 record. That is a vast improvement compared to last season. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe offers up a guide to projection season, noting how things like bullpen performance, the performance of young players, pitch framing, defense and health are factors that can shift an actual record away from a projected record. Notably these are areas in which the 2016 team appears to have improved relative to the 2015 squad, excepting, of course, health, which is basically impossible to anticipate. Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith will reinforce the bullpen. Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Blake Swihart and on and on will all have another year under their belts. Getting Hanley Ramirez out of left field should be a real boon for fly balls ending up in gloves, although how he fares at first base is a major open question, with the answer having a considerable impact on the rest of the infield defense. While there is great anticipation for the coming season, fueled by favorable projections like the one at FanGraphs, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald urges Red Sox Nation to calm down; there are still too many things that remain unknown to take these projections as reality.

Projecting major league teams and talent is one thing; projecting minor league players and prospects is another. It is extremely difficult to accurately plot out the career path of young players. Nevertheless it is worth checking out where players in the Red Sox organization fall among players from other organizations. About a month ago, we discussed the Baseball America top-100 rankings, within which the Red Sox had five players. The latest set of prospect rankings from a major outlet was released this week, with the crew at MLB.com doing a top-10 at each position. The Red Sox are well represented. Yoan Moncada is ranked as the best second base prospect, Rafael Devers is ranked as second best at third base, Anderson Espinoza is ranked as the tenth best right-handed pitching prospect and Sam Travis is ranked as the tenth best prospect at first base. The outfield list will be posted later today and I suspect it will include Andrew Benintendi. If that ends up as true, the Red Sox will only be absent from the left-handed pitching, catcher, and shortstop lists. The promotions of Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Rodriguez contribute to this, so it is not like the Red Sox are lacking good, young talent at those positions. The foreseeable future appears bright for this organization.

Quick Hits

As noted in the sections above, young players are an important part of the coming Red Sox season and near future. As such, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are front and center. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that these young stars are wise beyond their years and are ready to lead the team. Despite their critical roles within the organization, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes that the club has not begun talks of a contract extension with either player. Hopefully this sort of thing does not become a distraction as the season progresses.

Some combination of Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan will handle the catching duties in 2016. While it has been anticipated that Vazquez would join the roster after Opening Day as he continues to work back from having Tommy John Surgery last year, he tells John Tomase of WEEI.com that he is in the best shape of his life and hopes to be on the Opening Day roster.

Vazquez is not the only Red Sox player claiming to be in better shape and having lost 20-plus pounds this offseason. Jimmy Toscano of CSNNE.com reports that Pablo Sandoval has lost 20 pounds, and that the Red Sox are happy with his offseason work. Writing for FanGraphs, our own Matthew Kory examined the bounce back potential of Sandoval, specifically digging into the Panda’s work on defense.

Another player whose offseason workouts are being closely observed is Hanley Ramirez. His transition to first base is critical to the Red Sox success in 2016. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that Ramirez is ready for his new position position, embracing the challenge that comes with earning trust from his fellow infielders. On the offensive side of things, at GammonsDaily.com, Peter Gammons commented on the tremendous negative impact that Hanley’s shoulder injury had on his performance last year.

Hanley’s time at first base is likely to be limited to one season, as after David Ortiz retires at the end of 2016 the designated hitter spot will be open. Ortiz is heading into his age-40-season, which is a time typically marked by a considerable reduction in performance, specifically power. At OvertheMonster.com, our Alex Skillin notes that Ortiz is in a position to post one of the best age-40 seasons in the history of the game.

Finally, Fenway Park will look a little different in 2016, as the park will be outfitted with protective netting along the infield wall, reaching the far edge of each dugout. While some fans are reportedly upset with the potential obstructed view, Peter Abraham of Boston.com says Red Sox officials are certain that fans will adapt to the new screens. The new netting is supposed to be similar to that which is used behind home plate; transparent enough to allow fans a view of the game but safe enough to prevent injury.

Photo by John E. Sokolowski/USA Today Sports Images