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From BP: ALDS Game 1 Recap: Terry Francona, Leverage King

Matthew Kory — Fri, 07 Oct 2016 13:24:40 +0000

It’s easy to make too much of a single move in a postseason game. Taking a pitcher out one batter too late or sending a runner home on a long fly can have huge consequences. But if we step back and breathe deeply, we know a baseball game is too long, with too many moving parts, to ever truly be decided by any single event. Still, Thursday evening’s Red Sox-Indians game, the first of a five-game set, offered an easily graspable handle for those looking to turn that narrative crank.

It also offered a clear rebuttal to Buck Showalter’s highly-questionable choice during Tuesday’s Wild Card game to save Super Closer and Cy Young candidate Zach Britton for a save situation that, at least in part due to his very decision, never arrived. It’s not apples to apples, but Showalter’s refusal to use Britton because he might need him later stood in stark contrast–a black hole in the sun kind of contrast–to Terry Francona’s bullpen usage, and, to only a slightly lesser extent, John Farrell’s.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by David Richard/USA Today Sports Images

Ask BP Boston: Red Sox Postseason Predictions

Ben Carsley — Thu, 06 Oct 2016 16:09:49 +0000

I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but the Boston Red Sox are in the postseason. In fact, they play their first postseason game today, as they’ll take on the Cleveland Indians in Game One of the ALDS.

With first pitch now just a little under eight hours away, I polled the BP Boston staff to see how far they think this Red Sox team can go in the playoffs. Let’s just say we’re an optimistic bunch.

Yes, out of the eight writers who responded, only one (yours truly) does not believe the Red Sox will make the World Series. Four think the Red Sox will win it all, while five think Red Sox – Cubs is going to be the World Series matchup.

In terms of individual players, we’re pretty high on David Ortiz (insanely so, if you’re Bryan Joiner or Jake Deveraux) and less optimistic about Rick Porcello and Craig Kimbrel. I was expecting David Price to be a more divisive figure, but overall our team is pretty confident in him, believing he’ll post a playoff ERA in the low-to-mid 3s.

If we learned anything from our preseason predictions post, it’s that we’re sort of ok at making predictions! Seven of the nine participants way back in April predicted that the Red Sox would make the playoffs, with four thinking they’d make it as far as the ALCS and just one of us — Mr. Joiner — serving as a true World Series believer from the beginning.

Got any predictions of your own? If so, you have a few hours left to drop ‘em in the comments. After that, they won’t be predictions at all anymore, will they?

Photo by David Richard/USA Today Sports Images

From BP: Playoff Prospectus: Red Sox vs. Indians Series Preview

Ben Carsley — Thu, 06 Oct 2016 10:54:10 +0000

By Ben Carsley

This should be a pretty fun series. The Red Sox are up against their old manager, their old “high-leverage specialist” and their old first basemen. The Indians are up against the best offense in baseball and one of the best postseason performers of all time. And also against some very good dances.

But there’s only one real storyline that matters here: which 2016 employer ofMichael Martinez will win?

Read the rest on Baseball Propsectus.

Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images