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	<title>Boston &#187; Rickie Weeks</title>
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		<title>Rebuilding The Red Sox: Fixing The Roster&#8217;s Smallest Holes</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/19/rebuilding-the-red-sox-fixing-the-rosters-smallest-holes/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jan 2016 12:48:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bryan Grosnick]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Loewen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brennan Boesch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Domonic Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rickie Weeks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3372</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox's roster is pretty much set, but Dave Dombrowski and co can still make a few small upgrades before Spring Training arrives. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Welcome to the mid-point of January. It’s time to put on our heavy coats and gloves, stop griping about 2015’s failures and start focusing on the immense hope offered by 2016. The last time I drove down the Mass Pike past Fenway, my first thought was “boy, Pablo Sandoval was hot garbage last year.” This next time, I’m hoping it will be “boy, Mookie Betts could be an MVP candidate this season.” New year, new outlook!</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s also nearing the point where we can stop haunting MLB Trade Rumors and Baseball Prospectus and Twitter, wishcasting on those big-ticket free agents. Most of the major offseason trades have likely taken place as well. Once Yoenis Cespedes finds a new home, the heavy-duty part of the offseason transaction mill will be done, and we’ll be left with the small pieces that fit in here and there.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Red Sox are primed to make another go at it in 2016. With the acquisitions of David Price, Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith, the team looks to have addressed some of the team’s biggest holes. But no roster is perfect, no franchise bulletproof. If we buy into the idea that there are no more large moves in the offing, we can ask ourselves the next logical question: what smaller moves could the team make in order to optimize the roster for ‘16 and beyond?</span></p>
<blockquote><p>Having an awesome farm system and enough money to make Scrooge McDuck blush is a nice way to operate a ballclub.</p></blockquote>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Before I jump into this, the first thing I’d like to posit here is this: the Red Sox are actually a pretty deep squad. When doing my research, I fully expected to find two or three immediate low-impact wants that could be addressed. Most teams have those! Instead, I’ve found very few glaring weaknesses. Having an awesome farm system and enough money to make Scrooge McDuck blush is a nice way to operate a ballclub.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Nevertheless, every team could use some extra help at times. Here are the best places the team could make small moves to help win 2016.</span></p>
<p><b>Add another backup outfielder</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Recently, the Sox inked Brennan Boesch to a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training, and it’s possible that he could fill this role on the team. But as I look at the current (projected) 25-man roster, I see a bench with a bit of a hole. Right now, you’d have to figure that the bench would consist of Ryan Hanigan, Chris Young, Brock Holt, and … maybe Travis Shaw? It’s gotta be Travis Shaw, right? The Sox are likely to roll with a small bench, but while Holt can play outfield (and pretty well), he’s the backup middle infielder as well as the fifth outfielder. It would be fantastic if the team had another outfielder who could come in if there’s a long-term injury and spell the team’s outfield starters if something happens. Bonus points if he hits left-handed, and can be stashed at Triple-A. (Like an outfielder Travis Shaw!)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Of course, that’s exactly what Boesch likely is. The problem with Boesch, as it is, is that he’s pretty terrible. Over the last four years, he’s been worth -1.6 WARP, he’s a rough defender, and his worst big-league cup of coffee came, well, last year. He posted a .148 True Average, and he did it in the hitters’ paradise called Cincinnati. Ick. So while he could be a decent option if everything breaks right, leveraging his once-useful power in the outfield, it’s much more likely that he’s now a Triple-A player who folds in the majors, playing out the string on the wrong side of 30.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=344188283&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I’d be thrilled if the Red Sox took a flyer on former top prospect Domonic Brown, instead of potentially leaning on Boesch. Is it possible that Brown is a garbage baseball player, one of the worst defenders in the outfield and a hacky hitter? Of course … he wouldn’t be available if he wasn’t. But, at the same time, Brown has shown more and better power and more recent success at the dish than Boesch. He’s left-handed, and he still carries a career TAv of .264 despite down years in 2014 and 2015. He’s also younger, and could perhaps be a change-of-scenery candidate after being jerked around so much in Philly.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Best of all, the looks he’d give Ruben Amaro Jr. every time he reached first base! Priceless!</span></p>
<p><b>Add a better backup third baseman</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Ostensibly, Brock Holt is this team’s backup third baseman. But as mentioned before, Holt is also the backup for Xander Bogaerts and, more importantly, the increasingly fragile Dustin Pedroia. Holt will be great when pressed into duty, but invariably, the team could use another replacement on hand. Personally, I have deep reservations about Pablo Sandoval’s continued effectiveness on this team, and his injury potential remains high. So what happens if BOTH Pedroia and Pablo go down with injury?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Of course Sean Coyle could be an option at second, or even Deven Marrero … and Travis Shaw is capableish of playing third base. But in a perfect world, the team might have another hand stashed away capable of filling in at third in case of a real emergency. Someone like Garin Cecchini … from two years ago. With Cecch off in Milwaukee, who could the team turn to as an emergency backup … or a potential right-handed caddy for the Panda?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There’s a pretty good chance that Rickie Weeks is done as a major leaguer, but I’d toss him an invite to Spring Training and a minor-league deal in case he feels as if he wants to give it a go, or likes the weather in Pawtucket in April. In 2015, Weeks basically stopped hitting the ball hard at all. His line drive percentage absolutely cratered, with about five percent of his contact going hard off the bat. His overall hard contact dipped dramatically as well, going from a career mark around 30% to a paltry 17% in his limited action with Seattle.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s possible that he’s just a ruined shell of his former self. It’s also possible that continued action in 2016 could see him up his numbers from last year. No one expects Weeks to return to the halcyon 5.1 WARP days of 2010, but giving him a shot in Spring Training could be a good fit for both he and the Red Sox. If he can figure out how to handle third base and maybe make a little more hard contact, he could be a decent backup plan in the case of the inevitable injury woes that hit every team.</span></p>
<p><b>Yet another reliever, please!</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">You literally cannot have enough relief pitching on a baseball team. Every team always needs another relief pitcher. No team is an exception. And while a team gets the most value out of their most-leveraged arms (an area where the Sox are looking pretty good!), having another hand ready is a great idea. In the case of the Sox, again … the projected bullpen looks chock full of guys on major-league deals, with names like Matt Barnes, Noe Ramirez and Heath Hembree perhaps starting the year in the minors. As such, whomever the Sox add to the bullpen mix probably needs either to have options remaining, or be a candidate for a minor-league deal.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Here, I’d hope to try to snag a left-hander, even with the team carrying Roenis Elias, Henry Owens and Brian Johnson in the wings. All of those guys are better served as starters (except maybe Elias), and they are more foundational pieces. I’d want someone who’s more off the beaten path, who the team can stash, use in case of emergency, and not worry about screwing with their path to starting.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I’d want Adam Loewen.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Hear me out. I understand that Loewen is currently a free agent. The pitcher-outfielder-pitcher-again had a remarkable strikeout rate last year in Triple-A, punching out more than 30 percent of hitters in 46 innings with Lehigh. The southpaw also saw real big-league time with the Phillies, and maintained a high strikeout rate in the big leagues too! That’s promising.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=356032583&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Of course, by now you’re probably checking his </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45549"><span style="font-weight: 400">BP player page</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> and seeing the other side of things: his control has completely gone away during his years attempting to be an outfielder. His walk rate is an unmitigated disaster, and he gave up a boatload of hard contact. He was, in a couple of words, Not Good.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But for the purposes of this exercise, he is Just Fine. After all, we’re working at the very, very ends of the margins of this major league team. The Red Sox are deep enough to be able to absorb some risk with these minor-league contract guys. Loewen actually carries some nice upside &#8212; he’s proven he can strike out big-league hitters, so if he can eventually find the strike zone, there’s enough potential for him to be a big league contributor. If not, hey, maybe he can run double-duty in Pawtucket as a lefty specialist/left fielder?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">One of the real points of this exercise, for me at least, was finding out just how deep of a roster the Red Sox have built. The team has room to improve, for sure, but the best way to improve this team is take a couple of the couple-win players on the team (Rusney Castillo, Pablo Sandoval, Joe Kelly, etc.) and replace them with All-Star caliber guys, and that’s a difficult (and expensive) feat. That kind of performance is both unpredictable and costly.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The next thing could be to add marginal guys with a little bit of upside to fill in when a team needs 50 plate appearances or a few innings here and there. And while the Sox farm system is loaded, the close-to-the-majors talent appears to be concentrated mostly in left-handed starting pitchers. By adding a couple of vets on minor-league contracts, perhaps the team can sneak out a few runs here and there.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">And anything has to be better than signing Brennan Boesch.</span></strong></p>
<p><em>Photo by Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Game 35 Recap: Red Sox 2, Mariners 1</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/15/game-35-recap-red-sox-2-mariners-1/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/15/game-35-recap-red-sox-2-mariners-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2015 11:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Teeter]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Defense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Pedroia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rickie Weeks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seattle Mariners]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=939</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox keep scoring more runs than their opposition. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Red Sox pitchers allowed only one run over the last two games, which is phenomenal news. To go with it, the offense has pounded opponents into submission to the tune of four runs! Sarcasm aside, the Red Sox continued their winning ways on this west coast trip with a win over the Mariners last night.</p>
<p><strong>Top Play (WPA): </strong>The top two plays in this game really come courtesy of Rickie Weeks staying in the game to play left field after his pinch hitting appearance in the bottom of the eighth. Brock Holt lead off the inning with a hit to left. Hustling out of the box like he always does, Holt attempted to turn his hit into a double and Weeks obliged by air-mailing his throw to second base almost all the way to first (WPA: + .177). Xander Bogaerts sacrificed Holt to third, and then Pablo Sandoval, pinch hitting for Blake Swihart, was hit by a pitch. Mookie Betts came to the plate with runners on first and third and one out. He battled through six Fernando Rodney pitches before lifting an 84 mph changeup to left field for what appeared to be a routine sacrifice fly, with a possible play at the plate. But, Weeks dropped the fly ball, allowing Holt to score what ended being the winning run easily. Sandoval to advance to second, and Betts safely reached first (WPA: + .189).</p>
<p><strong>Bottom Play (WPA): </strong>The bottom play of the game belonged to the Mariners&#8217; Kyle Seager. With the game tied at one in the bottom of the eighth he came to the plate with runners on first and second. Seager grounded Matt Barnes&#8217; second pitch of the plate appearance to short for an inning-ending 6-4-3 double play (WPA: &#8211; .158). Dustin Pedroia really made this play happen. He made an excellent turn at second, coming across the bag to receive Bogaerts&#8217; throw, avoiding the runner (Nelson Cruz) who was bearing down on him and then throwing across his body perfectly to get Seager at first. It was a tremendous effort.</p>
<p><strong>Key Moment: </strong>There were many key moments in this game, but it was two Red Sox defensive plays that kept this game close. In the 4th inning, after retiring Robinson Cano, Sox starter Joe Kelly gave up back-to-back singles to Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager and then walked Logan Morrison to load the bases. He struck out Mike Zunino for the second out, bringing Dustin Ackley to the plate. Ackley grounded the ball to first base somewhat harmlessly, but the last hop ate Mike Napoli up such that the ball deflected off his glove and appeared to be ticketed for right field and a 2-1 Mariners lead. But Pedroia was in perfect position to play the carom off Nap&#8217;s glove and throw to Joe Kelly covering first base to retire Ackley and end the inning. Check it out:</p>
<div align="center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=115849583&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></div>
<p>In the 7th inning with the score tied at one, one out and a runner on first, Mariners&#8217; pinch hitter Justin Ruggiano drove a Tommy Layne slider to right field that looked like it would get over Shane Victorino&#8217;s head. But Victorino sprinted back to make an excellent catch on the warning track, then quickly turned and threw the ball back to first base to double-up the runner that had been stealing on the pitch.</p>
<div align="center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=115894283&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe></div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Defense really was a critical part of this game.</p>
<p><strong>Trend to Watch: </strong>The Mariners have lined up three left-handed starting pitchers for this series against the Red Sox. It has been suggested that it was an intentional move by the Mariners to take advantage of how poorly the Red Sox have performed against left handed pitching this season. Last night, Roenis Elias was the first of the lefty starters for the Mariners to battle the Red Sox and despite giving up eight hits, he managed to limit run scoring. Going into last night&#8217;s game the Sox&#8217; offense had a .188/.290/.346 (76 wRC+) line in their 317 plate appearances against lefties, which is quite a bit worse than what they have done in their 1014 plate appearances against right-handed pitching: .243/.319/.367 (91 wRC+) &#8211; another line that is not all that impressive. This is an odd split for this team to have, as most of the everyday guys hit right-handed (Betts, Pedroia, Hanley, Napoli, Bogaerts), Sandoval, Nava, and Swihart switch-hit – although Sandoval and Nava&#8217;s issues with lefties are well known – and guys like Hanigan, Victorino, and Craig all hit right-handed when they have been in the lineup. These right-handed hitters should beat up on left-handed pitching, but they have not been doing so. At this point in the season the difficulty hitting lefties is likely just random variation and will work itself out over the next couple of months, but it is something worth keeping an eye on.</p>
<p><strong>Coming next: </strong>Clay Buchholz will toe the rubber against Mariners&#8217; lefty J.A. Happ. Buchholz outing on Sunday against the Blue Jays was better than his previous two outings. He went 6.1 innings, gave up seven hits, three runs, walked three and struck out three. He managed to strand most of the base runners while allowing a lot of contact, which is not typically a recipe for success. He will need to be better. J.A. Happ has been a welcome addition to the Seattle Mariners, coming to the team in an offseason trade that sent Michael Saunders to the Blue Jays. He has a 3.29 ERA and 3.46 FIP, which are both well below his career rates (4.20, 4.32, respectively). Moving out of the Rogers Centre and into Safeco Field will help anybody. Happ has a 2.33 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 19.1 innings pitched at home and a 4.26 ERA (3.46 FIP) in 19.0 innings pitched on the road, although this difference is really because of one blowup start against the Astros. His home park may be part of his better than usual performance, but the biggest change for Happ this season compared to previous seasons has been a big increase in his ground ball rate (44.0% this year, 38.4% for his career).</p>
<p><em>Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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