Amidst all of that, there was interesting player development: the oft-vilified David Price threw a couple of bullpen sessions, has been scheduled for a sim-game, and appears to be on track for getting back with the team. This got me wondering about what Price’s role will be going forward and how to best fit him onto a playoff roster.

He could take the ball and perform like his old, dominant self for seven-ish innings four or five times next month, but what is the likelihood of that? From my perspective, it is low.

I would love to see a healthy David Price start games for the Red Sox before this season is out, but given his current status, it seems unlikely that he will have enough time to get stretched out for a start before the postseason. The idea of Price’s first start since July 22 coming in a potentially pivotal playoff game concerns me. Of course, he could take the ball and perform like his old, dominant self for seven-ish innings four or five times next month, but what is the likelihood of that? From my perspective, it is low. This estimation has nothing to do with the ridiculous idea that he is bound to wilt when the calendar turns to October. Rather, it comes from the fact that he has been dealing with a balky elbow since March, and owing to that, hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitch in six weeks. As such, I think the better course of action is to move away from getting Price ready for a spot in the rotation and toward preparing him for a role as a reliever.

With a little under a month to go before the playoffs start, Price has plenty of time to get his arm and mindset ready for a mid-game jog to the mound from right field and, barring any further setbacks in his rehab, he should get an opportunity to actually do so a few times in real, live games. Price’s arsenal is well-suited for life as a one-or-two-inning reliever. Generally, relievers possess a strong fastball and at least one secondary offering that keeps hitters from sitting on the hard stuff all night. Price checks both of these boxes. He still runs his four-seamer/sinker into the mid-90s, and plays off it with his cutter and changeup to keep hitters off balance and generate swings and misses. I could also talk about Price’s experience as a dominating reliever, including playoff action (as the 2008 Red Sox likely remember). I suppose those early days of his career provide an experience from which Price could draw something, but it was 15.1 innings, ten years ago, so I doubt it has much bearing on how he might fare as a reliever in 2017.

Moving Price to a relief role brings the advantages of limiting his workload (and potential stress on the elbow), prevents him from worrying about pacing himself, and keeps him from having to navigate a lineup multiple times, which has been an issue in his starts this year. First time through the order Price has held opponents to a .568 OPS. That ranks 20th best among the 179 starters who have at least 90 batters faced, and places him alongside guys like Jimmy Nelson, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray. Decent company to have. The problem is that the second time through the order opposing batters have knocked Price around to the tune of a .798 OPS, which ranks 99th among the 177 starters who have faced at least 90 batters the second time through. Any guesses at who leads the way in OPS-against the second time through the order (with at least 90 batters faced)? The answer is Doug Fister at .487. Fister has been a real gem for the Red Sox. By OPS-against, Fister (-.416), Rick Porcello (-.072), Eduardo Rodriguez (-.082), and Drew Pomeranz (-.156) have all been better the second time through the order, while Chris Sale has been slightly worse (.071). But Sale is still holding opponents to a comically low .581 OPS in their second trip, so we needn’t be worrying too much about him. In any case, it seems as though keeping Price from facing a lineup multiple times could be a valuable strategy to undertake.

It is worth noting that the 230 point jump in OPS Price has surrendered this year while working a lineup for the second time is based on a small number of batters faced and is not typical for him. For his career, Price has allowed a .655 OPS the first time through the order and a .682 OPS the second time. Generally, relying on career numbers is better practice, but it is safe to say that Price’s 2017 is different because of the elbow issue and therefore evaluating it separately, albeit cautiously, could be informative.

So what might Price look like as a reliever? As noted above, his outings in 2008 as a reliever likely provide little usable information. So to get a sense of how Price’s numbers could change with a move to the bullpen we can employ Tom Tango’s Rule of 17. Derived from almost four decades of data, this rule states that as a reliever BABIP is 17 points lower, strikeout rate is 17% higher, home runs per contact is 17% lower, and walk rate remains the same. For Price this would give something like the following:

I give the numbers based off of Price’s career numbers and 2017-only numbers because like I said, 2017 stands out as being different due to the issue with his elbow. Regardless of the baseline used, those are some pretty attractive numbers. Add a David Price pitching with rates like those to a bullpen with Craig Kimbrel, Addison Reed, Brandon Workman, and Carson Smith, and you are going to give opposing teams fits from the sixth inning on. This is especially so in the playoffs where the numerous off-days and greater sense of urgency pushes the idea of more liberal and creative use of elite relievers, as Terry Francona, Joe Maddon, and Dave Roberts successfully demonstrated last year. Obviously Price’s elbow situation will present some limits on his use, but 30-50 pitch outings once or twice every three days doesn’t seem unreasonable.

I am not the first person to suggest moving Price into a relief role. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald made it a couple of weeks ago, and a couple of the great BP Boston fellas discussed it with Alex Speier on the most recent episode of The Red Seat podcast. Regardless of who came first with the idea, I would like to see the Red Sox put it into practice. Perhaps this is already the case and they are just being secretive to prevent Price from having to answer a bunch of questions about a role change. Probably need one of them special Apple Watches to find out their true plans. Kidding aside, this season Price has gone to rather extreme lengths to demonstrate his desire to be there for his teammates and to be a good teammate. From my standpoint, accepting and even pushing for a role in the bullpen for the playoffs would be a great example of this.

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The central player in if and how the roster takes further shape is Dustin Pedroia. His return to the disabled list with the knee issue that has bothered him for the better part of the season raises a number of potential issues. John Farrell expects Pedroia back before the season’s end, which is great, but Pedroia’s comments sound less confident. If Pedroia can make it back fully healthy, and you accept my suggestion of the Red Sox being in a comfortable position, then he should take as long as he needs to get himself ready for October. There is no need for him to rush back to playing in two weeks. That would be shortsighted. While Pedroia has been one of the best hitters (.273 TAv) and all-around players on the team, the difference between Pedroia and his likely replacements, Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt, will be at most a win or two over the next six weeks. There are other effects, like how having Nunez play second base everyday reduces how versatile he can be, and in turn limiting potential off-days for other guys. But if Pedroia can get back for the playoffs that is the best course of action for the interim. Then come October, Nunez can resume his utility-ish role. So, take your time, Dustin. Get healthy and ready to rip in October.

Pedroia coming back to the team healthy in six weeks is obviously Plan A, but we should also consider the scenario in which the likelihood of him being healthy in time for October baseball is as low as his comments make it seem. Having Nunez as the starting second baseman for the playoffs, and adding Deven Marrero or Tzu-Wei Lin to the roster is not ideal. Rather, the team should consider acquiring a middle-infielder from outside the organization before August 31st (so that he is eligible for the playoff roster). Doing so reinstates the indirect effects of Nunez’s versatility (e.g., off days for guys like Devers and Xander Bogaerts down the stretch), keeps Holt from getting overused, and should provide a credible bat. It is unlikely that Nunez keeps up his current level of offense, and, all nice stories and two decent weeks of play aside, Marrero and Lin are not the guys you want to be sending to the plate very often in a playoff series.

The options for players to acquire are limited – and the whole waiver process could put the kibosh on the Red Sox making anything happen. But there are a few interesting names out there. Ian Kinsler would head the list but he was already claimed by a mystery team (that wears Red Sox?) on his journey through waivers, with no transaction coming to fruition between the Tigers and the Mysteries. The next two players I think are interesting (and could be available due to their contract status) are Brandon Phillips, and old friend Jed Lowrie. Phillips, playing for the Braves this year, is hitting .286/.329/.430 (.265 TAv) on the year, and, while not great with the glove at this point in his career, is around average. There are luxury tax concerns with the Red Sox adding Phillips, as he is owed around $2 million more this season. The Cincinnati Reds are paying basically all of his salary while he plays in Atlanta, but I am not sure that would continue if he were sent to Boston. Lowrie has hit better than Phillips so far this year (.270/.346/.438; .272 TAv), is projected to hit better the rest of the way, and would be a smaller financial hit: he is owed around $1 million more this season. Neither Phillips nor Lowrie has to come over and set the world on fire. They merely provide a dependable everyday option that keeps flexibility within the roster that should be valuable down the stretch and come playoff time.

While we are here, I will note that if the Red Sox get to poking around the Athletics’ roster, they should put mind to acquiring Rajai Davis. I would love to see the Red Sox go with 14 position players on their playoff roster(s) in order to make space for a guy like Davis to be a burner off the bench. It is lazy, but to sell the idea I will make the obligatory Dave Roberts reference. You might remember that he had a nice postseason moment as the team’s speed threat off the bench. Also, if Rajai were added, he and Devers could discuss hitting huge home runs off Aroldis Chapman. It really would be an all-around win for the team. I am going to be sad when they post a 13-pitcher playoff roster.

Much of this might ring as putting the cart before the horse, but these sorts of seemingly minor roster moves could have tangible benefits. A plan should be in place for a Pedroia-less October. Of course the difference between a Lowrie or Phillips and Marrero or Lin could be nothing or even negative, as variance in small series/samples is considerable. Maybe Davis isn’t ever presented with an opportunity to steal a base in a critical moment. But betting on the better players and being ready to with a guy who can get that important stolen base is a better approach, and due to Pedroia’s uncertain status and the roster rules, that means thinking about these issues now.

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