The numbers don’t necessarily show it, but 2016 was a huge year for Brian Johnson. Once a highly touted prospect — he was a first-round pick in 2012 — the lefty actively sought treatment for anxiety issues that threatened to derail his career in secret. As Alex Speier wrote, these issues presented themselves in numbness that trickled down his left (throwing) arm, down to his fingers; a distressing physical condition for anyone, leastwise someone who makes their living using the same arm. Fortunately for Johnson, he plays in an age where any organization worth a damn is both receptive to and proactive toward treating problems of this kind. With help, he’s working his way back toward the big leagues.

What went right in 2016

When Johnson asked for help after two bad starts at Pawtucket in May, he took a huge step forward toward a real major league career. It was not a step back. Previously sleepless and unable to concentrate on anything except baseball at any hour of the day, Johnson put the game aside and was finally able to rest. Between rest and therapy, he got himself right enough to at first begin living a stress- (and baseball-) free life, however possible. As Speier reported, he “started playing on his PS4 and going to virtually every movie he could.” Eventually Johnson started throwing and made appearances for the Gulf Coast League Red Sox and Lowell Spinner before returning to the PawSox to finish out his season. Across 77 innings at Triple-A, he put up a 4.09 ERA with a 54:36 K:BB ratio.

What went wrong in 2016

From a pure baseball perspective, Johnson’s minor league numbers have always threatened not to translate to the majors on a simple stuff level: he’s a soft-tossing lefty, albeit one with four pitches. The numbers in 2016 weren’t great, but, really, it’s beside the point. He was great in college and has been reliably good across the Sox minor league system, with an 2.60 ERA over 425.1 minor league innings. If 2016 is representative of his true talent level, he’s probably in trouble in the long-term, but there’s every reason not to nitpick last year’s performance. Sometimes it just doesn’t any damn good.

What to expect in 2017

Hopefully, Johnson remains healthy and continues his road back to the majors (he made one spot start in 2015). Unfortunately for him, the Red Sox don’t exactly lack for lefty starters at the  moment, but that has a way of changing quickly. At age 26, Johnson figures to be either running out of time or running into his peak fairly soon (or both), but if it’s the latter, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him called upon to make another emergency start or two during the year. It’s the whole reason he’s still around the organization, and hey: one start can turn into two, and two to three, and so on. The Red Sox believe in him. Thankfully for everyone, he does now, too.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

2016, for a multitude of reasons and a wide variety of people, kinda sucked. Sandy Leon was not one of those people. A season that began with the coronation of Blake Swihart as an everyday catcher eventually saw the position fall into the hands of Leon as a result of injuries and institutional mismanagement. And while the year included Cy Young hardware dealt to Rick Porcello, there’s a case to be made that it was in fact Sandy Leon who was the most shockingly good member of the 2016 Red Sox.

Sandy’s 2016 was weird and honestly still doesn’t quite make sense, so let’s take a peek back at his role this past season and going forward.

What went right in 2016

Most things. Most things went right. Coming into the season, Leon had played a total of 75 Major League games in his career between 2012 and 2015. Those games had been, uh, uninspiring. Leon had one career dinger and – brace yourself for his slash line, please, you’ll thank me – a .187 career batting average. He had a .258 on-base and .225 slugging percentage. Safe to say expectations weren’t particularly high for the catcher as he entered his age-27 season.

But when Ryan Hanigan went down with an injury in early June, Leon got called up to the big league club. Christian Vazquez couldn’t hit his weight, and Blake Swihart, well, yeesh. All of that is to say that Sandy Leon got himself an opportunity, and he did not throw away his shot. (Yeah, I just quoted Hamilton, don’t @ me.)

In 78 games (again, more than in his entire career to this point) Sandy earned a .310/.369/.476 slash line, knocked seven homers and drove in 38 runs. Sprinkle in some stellar defense behind the plate and Leon was good for 2.5 fWAR.

The dude hit .390 in his first 40 games this year, with a slugging percentage over .600 and a 1.075 OPS. One way to describe Sandy Leon’s 2016 is Good. It was Good.

What went wrong in 2016

Not that much. Leon exceeded all possible expectations en route to a career year that, frankly, he is unlikely to repeat.

The catcher did turn into something of a pumpkin down the stretch, seemingly remembering that he is Sandy Leon and not Johnny Bench. In the month of September, he hit .213/.286/.253 in his final 23 games. The Sox went 16-7 in those games, though, so it didn’t quite matter. Leon’s offensive production was fun and impressive, but it was never pivotal; getting offense out of the catcher’s spot was a luxury, so even when Leon came back down to earth, it was hard to blame him.

What to expect in 2017

Oh, boy. Is it bad if the answer to this part is “I have no idea please leave me alone so I don’t have to make bad predictions?” The catcher’s spot in the Red Sox 2017 lineup seems like it’ll be filled by whomever Dave Dombrowski and John Farrell like in February and March. From all indications and reports surrounding the Chris Sale trade, Dombrowski had no interest in moving on from Swihart, or at least in selling low on him as he recovers from a tough injury.

A year removed from being surrounded by High-End Prospect Hype, it seems the best-case scenario for the Sox is for Swihart to start. Ideally, he’d play a sustainable defensive catcher while holding on to the high-end offensive skills that drew him such rave reviews climbing the farm system. But after being moved from behind the plate and tossed haphazardly into Fenway’s treacherous left field, who knows where Swihart is at? And, much as I love the rifle attached Christian Vazquez’s right shoulder, I have no confidence in his ability to hit at a level anywhere close to tolerable.

And there’s Leon, coming off an all-around great season that he is unlikely to repeat. However, he should be given a chance to try; 2016 wasn’t a fluke until he can’t replicate it. Working against Sandy’s chances is the fact that he posted an almost comical BABIP of .392, second-highest in the majors among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. After the Winter Meetings and the flurry of moves that accompanied them, the 2017 Red Sox roster has come into focus. We have a sense of who will platoon at DH and who will be stationed on the corners. The only position that seems truly blurry is behind the plate, and it’ll be a fun battle to watch come Spring Training.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

So Rafael Devers might be pretty good. We got an indication of that last year, when Devers hit .322/.404/.506 between the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old. That’s when the reports started coming in. A potential plus-power, plus-hit tool combination. Impressive bat speed and pitch-recognition skills. A strong throwing arm and enough defensive potential to possibly remain at third base. There was a lot to like, and just like that, Devers became a top-100 prospect.

Fast-forward one year, and now Devers is an easy top-50 prospect, and in many circles he’s thought of even more highly.

This isn’t quite an underdog story. Devers was one of the bigger gets in the 2013 international signing period, netting $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic. Plenty of teams were drawn to his bat, and as of now, it’s pretty easy to see why. This isn’t to say that Devers is a perfect prospect — there are some warts here — but hey, what 19-year-old does have flawless skin?

What Went Right in 2015

Most things involving Devers and a bat. The then-18-year-old hit .288/.329/.443 in Greenville, playing against competition that was, on average, 3.5 years his senior. That didn’t stop him from finishing second in the entire Sally in doubles and total bases. Devers struck out in just 16.5% of his plate appearances, posted a .282 TAv and enjoyed an exceptionally strong finish to the year, hitting .425/.444/.550 over his final 10 games. 

In BP’s 2016 Red Sox top-10 list, Chris Crawford gave Devers a 55-grade hit tool and a 60-grade power tool, as well as a 60-arm that should forgive some of his deficiencies at third base. That’s an enticing package of tools to build a prospect around, and it’s why Devers ranked in at no. 35 on BP’s Top 101 and at no. 3 on Boston’s list. Quite frankly, compared to some other sources, it’s a little conservative. Keith Law ranked Devers as the no. 7 prospect in baseball. MLB.com had him at no. 13. SoxProspects.com has Devers as the second-best prospect in the system, and gives him a potential role-70 future.

Basically, everyone agrees that Devers can really hit for power, most people think he can really hit for average and some people think he can stick at third base. While he’s not uber athletic, Devers has a rocket arm and decent feel for the position, and while he’ll never be Adrian Beltre out there, he could at least start his career at third base if he doesn’t fill out too much. You can understand why he generates so much excitement.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Not a ton, but we can nitpick for sure. Devers’ walk rate fell precipitously, declining from ~11% in 2014 to just 4.7% last season. That’s not totally abnormal as young players move up the rung, but considering it was accompanied by an increase in strikeouts (16.5%) and a decline in ISO (.156), it’s not an overall positive trend. The catch here, of course, is that Devers’ strikeout rate is perfectly acceptable, if not above average, for a power hitter, and his ISO is solid for a then-18-year-old in the Sally.

Still, that shift led Law to speculate that Devers might end up being a high-average but moderate OBP hitter, and Crawford noted length in Devers’ swing that could lead to more swing-and-miss down the line. As long as that doesn’t prevent Devers from tapping into his plus natural power, it won’t matter a ton, but this all goes to say that Devers isn’t a flawless specimen or a sure thing.

Also, while it’s not a forgone conclusion that Devers will need to move across the diamond, it very much remains a possibility. Devers has already filled out to the point where speed isn’t a part of his game, and while he’s got decent reaction time at third base he could grow to the point where he’s not a viable option there. He’ll need to stay on top of conditioning to ensure that doesn’t happen, as he’d likely be eminently playable but not altogether special at first base.

Outlook for 2016/MLB ETA

SoxProspects.com projects Devers to start the year in High-A Salem, and that makes quite a bit of sense given the nonstop success he’s enjoyed to this point in his career. The jump from the South Atlantic League to the Carolina League is a significant one, and Devers should be tested adequately there as a 19-year-old. It’s an aggressive assignment, and if Devers doesn’t succeed at first, you shouldn’t freak out.

What should we watch for from Devers’ 2016 season? First, it would be nice to see his approach slide closer to what we saw in 2014, where Devers walked at a higher rate. Next, let’s root for more of Devers’ natural power to shine through as he gets older and builds more strength. And finally, let’s really pull for defensive improvement, specifically when it comes to body type and reaction time. No one doubts Devers’ arm, and there are plenty of positive reports about Devers’ footwork, too.

It’s tough to peg an ETA for Devers. If he crushes the ball in Salem for the the first two-thirds of the season, he could finish the year in Portland, much like Manny Margot did in 2015. That would put him on track for a late-2017/mid-2018 debut. If Devers’ progress is stayed by his aggressive assignment, we could be looking at an MLB ETA of closer to 2019 or 2020, at which point the Dominican will debut at the ripe old age of … 22 or 23.

When that counts as the worst-case scenario (other than abject failure) for a prospect, you know he’s pretty good.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Noe Ramirez reached Boston for the first time last season, appearing in 17 games and, outside a couple difficult outings, pitched 13 strong innings out of the bullpen for the 2015 Red Sox.  For those aware of Ramirez’s background, reaching Boston at all was a miracle in and of itself, and it is because of his background that no one should count him out moving forward.

The 26-year-old Ramirez grew up in Ramona Gardens, a housing project in East Los Angeles termed one of the most dangerous in all of California.  In fact, Ramona Gardens was once described as a “bleak bastion of crime” by the Los Angeles Times. The dirt field in Ramona Gardens is where Ramirez learned how to throw a baseball, and Ramona Gardens is where Ramirez learned what pressure felt like, which is important considering his potential role as a reliever for one of the most demanding baseball media markets and fan bases in the game.

Ramirez played college ball at Cal State Fullerton and was taken by the Red Sox in the fourth round of the 2011 draft.  The 6’3” Ramirez has a quick and deceptive delivery, throwing the ball from a low arm slot and hiding the ball very well until the moment of release.  Ramirez has three pitches – fastball, changeup and slider – and although none grade out as exceptionally strong, his high mound IQ and deceptive delivery have made him quite effective at getting hitters out.

Ramirez’s first professional season was in 2012 with Greenville, where the Red Sox used him as a starting pitcher.  However, after struggling through 16 starts that year, the Red Sox transitioned him to the bullpen prior to the 2013 season and he excelled in the role. Ramirez started out 2013 with Salem, where he pitched 47 innings, struck out 44 batters, walked only nine and compiled a 2.11 ERA.  Following this performance, Ramirez was called up to Portland, where he pitched his final 28.2 innings of the 2013 season, all of which were just as good (22 H, 8 BB, 31 K, 2.83 ERA).

Ramirez spent the entire 2014 season with Portland, where he served as their closer and was selected to the Eastern League All-Star team.  He finished 2014 with a final line of 67 IP, 56 H, 16 BB, 56 SO and a 2.15 ERA.  Needless to say, Ramirez’s first 140 innings of relief work could not have gone better, which is why the Red Sox made him a non-roster invitee to Spring Training and had him open up the 2015 season right on the doorstep of Boston in Pawtucket.

What Went Right in 2015

In Pawtucket, almost everything went right for Ramirez.  In early July, Ramirez had compiled a 2.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and .217 batting average against for Pawtucket, and found out the Red Sox were not only adding him to the 40-man roster, but also the big league 25-man roster.

Ramirez spent most of July with the Red Sox, but was sent back down for all of August and then called back up when the rosters expanded in September.  Despite some struggles during his first MLB stint in July, Ramirez pitched well overall considering it was his first experience with major league hitters.

Although Ramirez finished the 2015 season with a 4.18 ERA for Boston, he compiled a very respectable 3.38 ERA over 14 of his final 17 appearances.  Additionally, over the eight innings he pitched in September and October, Ramirez held opponents to a .214 BA.  Lastly, although an admittedly small sample size (10 ABs), Ramirez did well against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .200 BA overall.

What Went Wrong in 2015

During his time in Pawtucket and Boston, Ramirez experienced issues with his command.  For context, his walks per nine innings was 2.1 in 2014 and 2.0 in 2013.  However, in his 42.2 total innings with Pawtucket in 2015, Ramirez’s walks per nine innings increased to 3.8.  It was even worse in Boston, though, as Ramirez walked 4.8 batters per nine innings, a completely unsustainable number for a major league reliever.

With that said, Ramirez did see improvement in his command during his second stint in Boston in September and October.  Other than an outing in Toronto where he walked two batters in two-thirds of an inning, Ramirez only walked one batter over his final eight innings of 2015.  Still, considering Ramirez dealt with command issues in Pawtucket as well in 2015, it is clear this is something the Red Sox and Ramirez will need to watch.

Ramirez also struggled with right-handed hitters during his time in Boston.  Over 17 appearances, right-handed hitters registered 42 at-bats against Ramirez, batting .262 overall, with 3 HRs and a .500 slugging percentage.

2016 Outlook/ MLB ETA

The best thing about Ramirez and what may serve him well heading into 2016, besides his high IQ on the mound, is his toughness, his ability to stay even-keeled, learn from his mistakes and be put right back out there in a high-leverage situation.  We saw that last year when he had a poor September outing in Toronto, but came back the very next night in the eighth inning of a one-run game to get through the heart of the Blue Jays order.  This personality trait could make Ramirez an effective seventh-inning reliever, if he can figure out what plagued him in 2015.

Ramirez is back with the Red Sox this spring, but is on the outside looking in with regards to a spot on the team’s 25-man roster.  In Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith, the Red Sox added two right-handers during the offseason.  Their presence, along with fellow right-handers, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa, make it tough for the Red Sox to find room or a need for Ramirez.  Although there is one spot left in the bullpen for a righty, John Farrell has said he wants someone who can be extended over multiple innings.  If true, there are better options vying for the spot, such as Steven Wright and Matt Barnes.  Plus, with two minor-league options left for Ramirez, the Red Sox may want to obtain flexibility on the roster and in their bullpen depth by sending Ramirez down to Pawtucket to start 2016.

With that said, he still needs work, which is why it may be in Ramirez’s best long-term interest to start the year in Pawtucket, so he can work on some of the issues that plagued him during his 2015 stay in Boston, such as his command and difficulties with right-handed hitters.  Although Ramirez will likely have to wait his turn again this season, he should get his next turn at some point in 2016.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images

In most sports, there are certain expectations that come with being a first-round draft pick. In baseball, there is about as much certainty in the first round as there is in Clay Buchholz’s durability — unless Bryce Harper is in the draft. Michael Chavis epitomizes that point as much as any other player. Chavis was drafted No. 26 overall by the Red Sox in the 2014 amateur draft. BP’s Tucker Blair labeled him a professional with plus raw power and raw tools, but lacking in athleticism and inconsistent with both his bat and glove. Essentially, he’s a great unknown.

One thing we do know is Chavis has a long way to go. The 20-year-old third baseman had a disappointing first full season in Low-A Greenville in 2015, largely due to a lack of offensive production. Chavis used a free-swinging approach that brought him some success power-wise, but led to greater failures in the form of a high strikeout rate. He showed he has much to learn as a hitter and fielder before he’ll be major-league ready, or even ready for the High-A level. However, he was also just a teenager playing professional baseball for the first time. This could just be the beginning of a long journey.

What Went Right in 2015

Chavis was lauded for his power coming out of the draft. He has strong forearms and muscular legs, and, as Blair’s scouting report states, possesses a leveraged swing with above-average bat speed and easily generates backspin. Chavis didn’t disappoint in that category, tying for fifth in the South Atlantic League with 16 home runs, ripping 29 doubles and finishing with a .182 ISO. Chavis improved as the season went on, particularly in power as he hit six home runs in August and September (the season ended Sept. 7). That gradual progression, highlighted by a nine-game stretch in which he collected 12 hits and rode a six-game hitting streak, provides reason for hope that he can carry that into 2016 and make his case for a promotion.

Another positive in Chavis’ 2015 season was his eight stolen bases. It’s not a spectacular number, but it’s solid given the average speed scouts have noted. It shows a strong instinctual element in his game (as well as showing just how bad many Low-A catchers are).

What Went Wrong in 2015

Chavis’ big swing paid dividends in terms of home runs, but left him whiffing far too often. He had a whopping 30.6 percent strikeout rate, going down swinging three or more times in 15 games. In fact, most of his offensive numbers were low. He posted a .244 TAv, .223/.277/.405 slash line and rarely pieced together multi-hit efforts. Blair’s 2014 analysis tells us those numbers aren’t surprising, as he has trouble with his timing and his swing can be inconsistent. Those flaws were most prevalent against hard-throwing pitchers. As Sox Prospects writes, Chavis’ swing tends to get long, which exposes the inner half of the plate. By contrast, Chavis walked at a 6.2 percent rate as his patience and strike zone knowledge still needs to develop.

Chavis’ glove could use some work as well. He committed 19 errors in 68 games at third base, and posted an ok 3.5 FRAA. Blair writes that Chavis is an aggressive defender with inconsistent footwork. His plus arm strength is nice, but it may not be enough to make up for the sloppy technique. Chavis started off as a shortstop in rookie ball before being moved to third base. His struggles at third could mean a short future there as well, and we may see him DH more often. Don’t rule out a move to the outfield, either.

Outlook for 2016/MLB ETA

Sox Prospects projects Chavis to be Greenville’s starting third baseman once again this season. Where he goes from there hinges on how he performs at the plate. What’s clear is he needs to hit better, even at the expense of some of those power numbers. Perhaps that means shortening his swing, or just getting his timing down. He could have a real chance to move up this season with Rafael Devers in High-A Salem and primed for another promotion if he picks up where he left off last year. More struggles at third could lead to Chavis trying new positions, though as Chris Crawford noted in BP’s 2016 Red Sox Top-10 list, Chavis has the tools to stick at the hot corner.

BP puts Chavis’ ETA at 2019. It looks unlikely he’ll advance sooner than that. This year is an important one in terms of establishing how quickly he can climb through the organization. The good news for Chavis is he’s still ripe at 20 years old. His frame is bound to fill out more, and he’ll have ample opportunity to improve his approach at the plate, and sharpen his glove. For now, it’s far too early to worry about Chavis. It’s still just the beginning.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Prior to the 2010 season, the Cubs signed Marco Hernandez out of the Dominican Republic. I’ve looked relatively hard, and I can’t find the exact date of his signing nor can I find the exact signing bonus for Hernandez. That alone tells you how little he was thought of at this point in his career. Hernandez was hardly considered much of a prospect in the years since signing, as he has slowly but surely made his way up the minor-league ladder over the past six years. Nevertheless, the Red Sox saw enough talent to take him back as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal, bringing Hernandez to the organization in December 2014.

What Went Right in 2015

The now-23 year old showed off the most appealing part of his game last year as he proved to be a capable defensive player at both middle infield positions. Hernandez spent most of his time at shortstop and displayed the fluid movements that confirmed his ability to stick at those positions for a long time. He’ll never be Jose Iglesias or even Deven Marrero with the leather, but he’s a positive contributor on that side of the ball with his quick movements and solid hands. The arm isn’t spectacular, which makes him a better fit for the keystone, but Hernandez will likely be serving as a backup at the highest level. He certainly has the tools to play shortstop on an irregular basis.

He also lived up to what he does best with the stick. Although he’ll probably never even be an average hitter at the major-league level, Hernandez has a hit tool that can carry him in a bench role. He thrived against minor-league pitching last season, posting a .289 True Average in Double-A and a .266 mark after being promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket. He also posted a respectable .149 ISO between both stops despite little-to-no home run power.

Hernandez specializes in attacking early-count fastballs that he can turn into line drives, resulting in a high number of doubles and triples throughout his professional career. While his approach is far from perfect, his ability to make solid contact has been able to mask that deficiency more often than not.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Honestly, this all depends on what your expectations are for Hernandez. If you’re expecting him to be a future Gold Glove winner, he disappointed in the field. While he’s still very solid, there are real problems with his hands and his footwork, which led to 29 errors across all levels and positions last season.

If you are expecting an everyday-caliber hitter, too, you’d be disappointed by his impatient approach. He struggled against secondary pitches — a problem that will only grow as he faces better opposition. He also doesn’t really work counts, walking less than five percent of the time at both levels while watching his strikeout rate climb as he made the jump to Pawtucket. While that’s to be expected, Hernandez has the profile of a hitter who will struggle against more advanced competition. A strong hit tool can only mask so much with that kind of approach.

If those were your expectations, however, you were setting yourself up to be disappointed. He’s never been a perfect player and has always profiled as a utility guy. The only thing that really changed in Hernandez’s performance last season relative to his prior track record was his stolen base total. After stealing around 20 bases a year with the Cubs organization, he swiped just five bags last year. Of course, he didn’t really give himself many chances, which could either be a change in skill set or a different set of expectations from his new organization. Overall, the worst thing you can say about Hernandez’s 2015 was that he didn’t improve his projection over the course of the season.

Future Outlook/MLB ETA

In Hernandez’s case, his future outlook and his MLB ETA are one in the same. He was added to the 40-man roster this past winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Although that’s not always a guarantee for an imminent promotion, Hernandez isn’t the type of player you protect and stash. He’ll start the year in Pawtucket’s middle infield along side Marrero, and the two will have something of a competition to determine who is the primary backup infielder for the big club. With that being said, neither is likely to be good enough to demand a long look. So even if Marrero wins the competition, Hernandez will get his shot sooner or later.

Once he’s called up, I’d expect more of the same from Hernandez. The numbers obviously won’t translate to Boston, as he’s likely more of a .250 or .260 hitter in the majors, but the skill set will remain. He has enough versatility in the infield to maximize his playing time, and he even started to get work at third base last season. Major-league pitchers will fool him enough to keep him from excelling, but the hit tool is good enough that Hernandez will run himself into enough extra-base hits to make him a solid contributor off the bench for a long time.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Teddy Stankiewicz may be the most interesting pitching prospect in the Red Sox system.  At 6’4, 200 pounds, with a four-pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball, changeup, slider), the 22-year-old Texan has the prototypical frame, build and makeup of a major league starting pitcher.

Entering what will be his third full professional season, the young right-hander is someone to watch, as he has the tools to soar up the Red Sox prospect rankings this year.

As a senior in high school, Stankiewicz, who was 18-years-old at the time, was selected 75th (2nd rd) by the New York Mets in the 2012 draft, but the two sides were unable to reach a deal.  Stankiewicz spent the 2012 season at Seminole Junior College in Oklahoma before re-entering the draft in 2013, when he was selected 45th (2nd rd) by the Red Sox as a 19-year-old.  Although the negotiations between Stankiewicz and the Red Sox went better than the one with the Mets, they did not go off without issue.

Stankiewicz was due to receive $1.1 million from the Red Sox, but the team discovered during a routine physical that he does not have a right pectoral muscle.  As a result, the team and Stankiewicz agreed to reduce the signing amount by $200,000.  Considering Stankiewicz has been throwing a low-to-mid-90s fastball since he was 18-years-old, this clearly has not been an issue for Stankiewicz and doctors say it never will be.  The only impact it has on Stankiewicz and baseball relates to his workout routine.  For example, there are certain exercises in the gym, i.e. bench press, that he avoids.

In his first three professional seasons, Stankiewicz’s strike-throwing ability has been his best attribute.  He works quickly and has great control over his fastball and slider, which are his two best pitches.  With more development, his changeup also has the potential to be an above-average pitch for him.  There is no doubt Stankiewicz prides himself on being a workhorse and always in control of his pitches.

Although he issues very few walks, Stankiewicz also does not register many outs via strikeout.  Rather, he relies on batters putting the ball in play and his defenders doing the rest.

Although he issues very few walks, Stankiewicz also does not register many outs via strikeout.  Rather, he relies on batters putting the ball in play and his defenders doing the rest.  In so doing, Stankiewicz limits his pitch count and eats innings for his team, and we all know how valuable that quality is and how expensive it is too.  A 200-inning pitcher will cost you close to $100 million in today’s MLB (see Mike Leake), so the development of Stankiewicz is important to the team, but it is also critical to his value as an asset should the Red Sox choose to ever dangle him in trade talks.

Stankiewicz has moved up a level every year of his professional career.  In 2013, right after the draft, Stankiewicz was sent to Single-A Lowell, where, as a 19-year-old, he was 2.3 years younger than the average player at that level.  Stankiewicz pitched 19.1 innings over nine starts, struck out 15, walked only two and finished with a 2.29 ERA.

In 2014, Stankiewicz moved up a level to Single-A Greenville for his first full professional season.  Stankiewicz, at 20-years-old, was 1.7 years younger than the average player at that level.  Stankiewicz compiled 140.1 innings over 25 starts and walked only 29 batters, which is incredible.  However, he only struck out 102 batters.  He finished the season with a 3.72 ERA.

In 2015, Stankiewicz moved up to the Carolina League, an advanced Single-A level, where he played for Salem.  Stankiewicz pitched the entire season as a 21-year-old, which is nearly two years younger than the average player at that level. You might be noticing a theme here; Stank has been young for his levels.

What Went Right in 2015

Despite receiving minimal run support and sub-par defense behind him, which is not a good thing for a pitcher who relies on his defenders for most of his outs, Stankiewicz continued to do what he does best by throwing strikes and innings.

Given his age and the issues around him, it is hard to see Stankiewicz’s 2015 season as anything but a developmental success.  He started 25 games, threw 141.1 innings and handed out only 32 walks, which amounts to approximately two walks per nine innings.  His 141.1 innings was fourth-best in the Carolina League in 2015.  Stankiewicz finished the season with a 4.01 ERA, thanks in part to slowing down near the end of the season.

In addition to continuing to develop where he is strongest — control and durability — Stankiewicz demonstrated he is capable of being dominant when he puts all of it together.  On May 25th, Stankiewicz threw eight shutout innings, permitting only three batters to reach base (2 hits, 1 walk).  Then, on July 3rd, Stankiewicz flashed his strikeout potential as well, throwing seven shutout innings, surrendering three hits, zero walks and striking out nine batters, which was a season-high.  On July 15th, he threw six shutout innings and in his final start of the season, Stankiewicz threw seven shutout innings, surrendering five hits and only two walks.  There is nothing better than finishing on a high note, which was even more important for Stankiewicz given the struggles he had experienced in his prior three starts.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Although he pitched the entire 2015 season at only 21-years-old, Stankiewicz’s struggles cannot be overlooked and there were plenty in 2015.  For example, he failed to improve in any statistical category.

Since Stankiewicz pitched nearly identical innings in both 2014 and 2015, it is quite easy to compare his numbers and the comparisons are not good.  While he struck out 102 batters in 2014, he only struck out 77 in 2015, which lowered his SO/9IP from 6.5 to 4.9.  Although the differences were barely noticeable, he gave up more hits, walks and home runs in 2015, resulting in an increase in his WHIP from 1.211 in 2014 to 1.281 in 2015.

As mentioned before, Stankiewicz started the same amount of games and pitched nearly the same amount of innings in 2015 that he did in 2014, which may be a bad thing.  Given the fact he was fourth in the Carolina League in innings pitched, it is hard to criticize that aspect of his season, but should he not have seen a larger increase in his workload than one inning?

Outlook for 2016/MLB ETA

Stankiewicz will be moving up to Double-A ball in 2016, joining the Portland Sea Dogs, where he will once again be one of the younger players on his team.  He is projected to be the ace and workhorse of Portland’s rotation, which may put him in line for a call-up to Pawtucket if a need arises.

After throwing 140 innings the last two seasons, do not be surprised if the Red Sox let him approach or exceed the 160-inning threshold.  If so, it will be fascinating to watch because if at age-22, Stankiewicz can replicate his successes from 2014 and 2015 at the Double-A level, he may find himself in the top-10 of the Red Sox prospect rankings heading into 2017.

Stankiewicz needs at least another full season in the minor leagues and that is exactly what is going to happen in 2016.  His best-case scenario for 2016 is finishing the season in Pawtucket, which is entirely possible given his position within the system and Portland’s rotation. From there, it depends.  Beyond that, well, there are a lot of pitchers ahead of him for the Red Sox 2017 rotation, especially if Clay Buchholz’s 2017 option is exercised and Joe Kelly and/or Henry Owens breaks out as well.  That’s putting the cart before the horse though; Stank needs to further develop his secondaries and prove he can miss bats before we worry about him making the rotation in Boston.

The 2016 season will tell us a lot about Stankiewicz and whether or not he can become a back-end, cost-effective workhorse for the Red Sox rotation.  As we all know, the Red Sox have been searching for a 200-inning pitcher for quite some time and hope to have finally found one in David Price, which only cost them $217 million.  That is what makes Stankiewicz potentially so valuable.  Not everyone can be the ace of a rotation and strike 10 batters out per game.  Teams who succeed need the workhorse as well, the guy you can rely on to take the ball every fifth day, start 30-plus games, pitch 190-plus innings and save your bullpen more often than not.  That is who Stankiewicz is capable of becoming.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

As a silver-ish lining to the 2012 chicken-and-beer collapse, the Red Sox picked as high as seventh in a draft for the first time in 2013 since selecting Trot Nixon in 1993. Their prize was Trey Ball, a 6’6” high school outfielder and southpaw who signed for an under-slot $2.75M.

Now 21 years old and with a second full season of experience as a pro, Ball is still more project than projectable. And while the Red Sox probably didn’t expect that he’d be anchoring the rotation in 2016, they probably did expect that he’d figure in somewhere in the team’s top ten prospects at this point (spoiler alert).

What Went Right in 2016

The profile that led the Red Sox to gamble on Ball is still intact. Mixed into his 4.73 ERA in 25 starts overall were a handful of strong games, especially in the middle of the year, when Ball seemed to take a step forward. In June, Ball pitched to a 1.59 ERA in 28.1 innings, including his longest start of the year (6.2 IP) and a dominant performance in which the Indiana native punched out nine hitters in the Cleveland organization.

The BP prospect staff checked in with Ball when things looked like they were starting to click, posting a mixed bag review that raised an eyebrow in a good way. The staff saw a delivery that was repeated more consistently than in his first season—an important development for a pitcher whose main shortcoming has been command. The 88-91 mph fastball would leave Ball a tick below average for a major league lefty, but the 92 mph he flashed would be average or better. And while Ball’s loopy curve was still inconsistent, he showed something tighter at times, a pitch that could finally be thrown for strikes, earlier in the count.

What Went Wrong in 2015

You kinda sorta did the math in your head: if Ball had a 1.59 ERA in June and a 4.73 ERA overall, the rest of Ball’s year was less than inspiring. That 5.61 ERA (I know you didn’t actually do the math) was probably a better reflection of who Ball was on the mound last year: an athlete with an unathletic delivery and very iffy command who sometimes looked the part but couldn’t count on his fastball or his out pitch.

There are pitchers in the majors who get by with a walk rate only slightly better than Ball’s 4.18 BB/9 last year, but there’s every reason to think he was at High-A last year specifically to work on his command; it wasn’t a pitching style, but a technical problem. There’s still plenty of time for Ball to put it together, but mastering his own body will not necessarily get easier as it changes.

BP’s Chris Crawford wrote of Ball’s 2016 that his “secondary offerings haven’t made any real progress.”

The very real potential for improvement is great—few mortals have the ceiling that Ball still has right now. Having plenty of time to improve, though, doesn’t make up for making essentially no progress at all in 2016. In high school, Ball had a useable curveball and a changeup with potential; BP’s Chris Crawford wrote of Ball’s 2016 that his “secondary offerings haven’t made any real progress.” As Crawford noted, “[a]dd in well-below-average control and command, and you get a guy who is closer to non-prospect than prospect.”

Outlook for 2016

Ball doesn’t need to make The Leap to stay on the prospect radar a year from now—he just needs some of that “real progress.” The Red Sox bet big that Ball’s athleticism would allow him to overcome his rawness, and that’s still what they’ll be waiting on as the 2016 season gets underway. Time is not necessarily on the team’s side with Ball, who may not be moved up a rung to Double-A in 2016 until he shows better command. The Red Sox will not have to add Ball to the 40-man next November, but his brief time in rookie ball in 2013 made that season a “qualified season” for purposes of the Rule 5 draft—he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2017 at the ripe age of 23 unless he gets protected.

It’s hard to continue to bet on a pitcher who needs to make several kinds of improvements at once, but is that what it would take for Ball to be relevant for the Red Sox? The report last June, days before he became old enough to drink, noted that Ball’s 6’6” frame still offered plenty of room to add strength. When Ball grows into his body, even a small spike in velocity could make him a candidate for messy but competent innings.

That same process could also pay real dividends for Ball in terms of control, not just because the strike zone would become a more hospitable place to work. Control problems seem to stem from difficulty repeating a delivery when tired, as the prospect staff wrote in June that Ball struggled to repeat as he got deeper into the game. It all adds up to back-burner status for Ball, but the right kind of progress will be physical—and that could show up on the mound well before we see it in the stat sheet.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstull.smugmug.com

Drafted with the 24th pick in the 2012 draft, Deven Marrero gave many dreams of an all-Sun-Devil infield. Three years later, you might see it happen from time to time, like when Xander Bogaerts needs a day off, or when Brock Holt can’t get out on the field for some reason. He’ll never be mistaken for his fellow alumnus Dustin Pedroia, but man, Marrero can flash the leather with the best of them. He just can’t really hit.

What Went Right in 2015

The first-round pick finally debuted in the majors. Marrero got a cup of coffee in September and played in 25 games, mostly as a defensive replacement at third base and occasionally at shortstop. Even though he never really showed much pop – not terribly unusual for him – he was able to get his first home run in late September.

Thing is, that might be his only offensive highlight. Then you see him pull off stuff like this:

Just look at this. And this. I’m not one to get hot and bothered over great fielding plays, but I’m gonna need a moment to fan myself here.

Marrero showed he could be more then competent manning any position on the left side of the infield, and frankly, the right side doesn’t seem like it would be too hard for him either. He is delightful to watch in the field, and you end up hoping every ball ends up hit to him so you can see a picture-perfect way on how to put a glove on it.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Remember that home run? Yeah, that’s really all he did with a bat. Marrero has a flat swing with very little loft to it, making him a line drive machine, but there’s not a lot of strength behind it, and his bat speed isn’t anything to write home about. He’s also had issues with seeing and hitting pitches that don’t stick to moving in a straight line. That’s always been his Achilles’ heel, and it looks like it won’t get much better anytime soon.

At this point, Marrero would be a major leaguer on the strength of his glove, but if he could hit at all, he’d be so much better. And yet, as Chris Crawford put it in the Red Sox Top 10 prospects list:

“If Marrero had a semblance of offensive upside, he would be among the best shortstop prospects in baseball. He doesn’t. There’s some strength in the swing and he can put the ball into the gaps, but he gets fooled consistently by anything with movement, and the lack of bat speed makes the hit tool below average as well.”

Future Outlook/MLB ETA

Having already had a month in the majors, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Marrero rent out seats on the Pawtucket-Boston charter in 2016. He’s the next man up should the bench need help, and if Bogaerts goes down or Holt starts fighting fatigue again, Marrero will get the call. If it wasn’t for Bogaerts and Pedroia, Marrero would probably have a chance to start, but he drew the short stick when it came to being drafted by teams with great middle infielders.

For his long-term outlook, it’s more of a mystery than you’d expect. The Red Sox should be keen on keeping him in a bench role if they can, but with Bogaerts’ breakout and Holt playing all of the positions, his place there seems mostly redundant. It’s tough to say how it’ll shake out for him, but he’ll need injuries or ineffectiveness to have a semi-permanent spot on the 25-man roster.

It’s really a shame, at least from an aesthetic standpoint. Guys who make fielding look this natural are amazing to watch.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

Super-prospect Yoan Moncada has reached serious heights on BP’s Top 101 prospects list–number seven! We did it, fam!–following his first professional season. He’s still a world away from contributing at the major-league level, but today he’s one step closer to being an impact contributor for the Red Sox.

What Went Right in 2015

Moncada did exactly what the organization must’ve hoped for: he spent the 2015 season getting used to baseball in the U.S., and continued to show flashes of the skills that could make him an impact player at the big-league level. We’re contractually obligated to talk about his speed and athleticism first, considering that Moncada is an absolute specimen. Moncada stole 49 bases this season … which is great on its own. But getting caught just three times is even better. And Moncada didn’t even really turn on the wheels until later in the season. If he gets a green light for a full season, look out.

More importantly–but less decisively–the bat appears to be coming along. If you look at the stat line, he held his own at Greenville,  switch-hitting and putting up numbers that are roughly 35% better than the league average, including a 11.8 percent walk rate and a .278 batting average. That’s not so bad for an age-20 season, and his ripped physicality projects him to improve on his power numbers going forward. Look, at the lower levels, all you really can hope for is (1) continued development of tools and skills and (2) numbers that aren’t going to embarrass you or your coaches. Moncada succeeded on both counts.

Here he is going yard from the left side.

Oh, and he was the Sox’s Minor League Player of the Year. No big deal.

What Went Wrong in 2015

You could make the argument that the first half of his season went wrong. After starting the season late (he made his debut on 5/18/15, a day that will live in Sox lore, perhaps), he went .200/.287/.289 going into the halfway point of the season. He couldn’t hit for any power, only hitting one homer before mid-July. Of course it shouldn’t be terribly surprising that a 20-year-old in a new country playing real baseball for the first time in nearly two years had a little rust to shake off.

Dan Farnsworth at FanGraphs–a much finer scouting mind than mine–states that Moncada’s swing plane remains a little choppy, so that’s a ding on him. In addition, if he can’t stick at second base (where his bat could be dynamite) and has to move to the outfield, that could limit his long-term value.

But once the second half kicked in, it was almost all gravy for the Sox’s top prospect. The good way outweighed the bad.

Outlook for 2016/MLB ETA

I think even an aggressive development plan for Moncada has him spending 2016 in Salem, working on his hitting and continuing to acclimate to the pro game in the U.S. Sitting atop a Salem lineup that also features Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi … that’s just awesome for prospect hounds. I’m not sure that any minor league lineup has that sort of upside. If he crushes it–and more importantly, his skills continue to progress­–he’ll likely get a minute in Portland.

So long as his offense continues to develop, Moncada’s probably on track to take Fenway in September of 2017 or May of 2018. Sure, Dustin Pedroia will probably still be around by then, but Moncada will either move, or (gasp) maybe Pedroia will if the kid stays on this path. With his world-class physical gifts, Moncada is a rare guy with a high ceiling and a reasonable floor, provided he can figure out how to be an average defender. He’s the very definition of exciting, and his ultimate potential gives Sox fans something very special to look forward to.

[Editor’s note: Almost as special as his arms.]

Here $138.5 million in Cuban talent. Viva capitalism. pic.twitter.com/JcrlnXMCxO

— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) February 15, 2016

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com