After Porcello dropped a 3.15 ERA, 223 innings, 5.8 WARP, Cy-Young-winning season in 2016, it seemed like he had finally harnessed his potential, and would be a guy who could provide a strong bridge to the back of the rotation. Turns out we jumped the gun on that. Porcello followed up his Cy Young season with a replacement level 2017 – by BP’s WARP anyway; FanGraphs’ version of WAR saw him as average. But regardless of the measure, 2016 stands out pretty clearly as the oddity in Porcello’s career to date. It is great that he showed that level of pitching, but it is unlikely he recreates the heights of 2016. Ideally, he can find a comfortable place somewhere between his 2016 and 2017 seasons in 2018.

What Went Right

There is not a lot to choose from here. I think the best thing that can be said about last season for Porcello is that he took the ball every fifth day. He made 33 starts, racking up 203.1 innings, which put him over the 200 inning threshold for the third time in the last four seasons. While Porcello was not lights out in his innings, consistently eating innings does provide value. It keeps the team from asking Henry Owens to take a break from walking minor league batters to instead come and walk some major league batters. It is better to have Porcello out there. The gap between Porcello and a go-between minor leaguer might be shrinking, but Porcello remains the better option.

Throwing 200 innings is great, but if the last bunch happen while overly fatigued, it could portend bad things (i.e., injury) for the following season. As far as I can tell this was not the case for Porcello. The velocity on all of his pitches held through the end of the season, and he was striking batters out at the same rate in the second half (22.0 percent) as he did in the first (22.8 percent). Porcello’s ongoing standing as a durable starter did not take a hit in 2017, but it would be nice if was more than just that.

What Went Wrong

Porcello struck out a lot of batters in 2017, but when he didn’t miss bats he got hit hard. Oh boy, the hard contact. He is on the wrong end of many categories on the 2017 Statcast leaderboard (minimum 190 batted ball events). He tied for the 19th highest average exit velocity, had 230 batted balls of 95 mph+ (third most, 41st highest percentage of batted balls), tied for the 20th highest rate of Barrels per batted ball, and on and on.

Porcello’s problems with the home run stood out; he allowed 38 (i.e, more than one per start). That is simply bad. Of course, we must point out that the ball was juicier in 2017 relative to previous seasons, and that might explain some of Porcello’s issues with home runs and hard contact last season, but it wasn’t just juiced for Porcello’s outings. Even if for some reason you ignore the 38 home runs he allowed from those Statcast measures, there remain 194 missiles to explain (for those checking my math: two of the homers he allowed had an EV below 95 mph; this one and the one below) . Simply put, he got hit hard last season, and harder than most.

One other noteworthy part of Porcello’s 2017 is his penchant for bad starts to his starts. He had a 7.09 RA9 in the first inning, which was more than two runs worse than his average performance in each of the next five innings, and almost a half run worse than his seventh innings. By rule, he is forced to face the top of the opponents’ order in the first inning, which usually involves stronger hitters, and this is not necessarily true for any other inning. This could explain poorer performance in the first inning, but the magnitude of Porcello’s trouble is alarming. His troubles actually lasted through his first trip through the order resulting in a reversed times through the order penalty last year, rendering the effect’s name temporarily incorrect. He was better his second time through the order and held that level the third time through. This is odd. Perhaps he needs to adjust his pre-game routine so as to be in a stronger position come first pitch. Alternatively, he should leave his routine alone, as this is most likely just a single-season oddity. It is certainly worth watching for in 2018.

What to Expect

Despite a mostly difficult 2017, Porcello’s spot in the rotation is not in doubt. He slots into the 4/5 hole behind Sale, Price, and Pomeranz. Expecting him to recreate his 2016 season is foolish, but he is better than what he showed in 2017. I think a reasonable baseline expectation is roughly 175 innings of average run prevention. If things bounce his way a few more times than they don’t – which of course depends on him limiting hard contact more than he did this past year – he could get in the 3-4 WARP range. His doing that would push the Red Sox’s rotation to the next level.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

In the last two years the Red Sox have spent a lot of money in the International player market, signing Rusney Castillo to a 7-year, $72.5 million contract and then giving Yoan Moncada a contract with a $31.5 million signing bonus. Castillo, almost 28 years old, is still a raw talent and has struggled mightily in his limited time in the major leagues (26 games, 77 plate appearances), contributing negatively in all phases of the game. He needs to spend more time learning the game and getting regular playing time, but Boston is not the best place for that, which is why he was recently sent back to Pawtucket. Castillo’s struggles led Rob Bradford of WEEI.com to look into how the Red Sox evaluated the Cuban player, and question if they made a mistake in their process, perhaps relying too heavily on workouts rather than live game experience. Allard Baird, Red Sox vice president for player personnel, was the primary person responsible for determining Castillo’s potential value and is quoted in the article as being confident that Rusney will get things sorted out and be a strong player for the Red Sox. But the early returns on Castillo and Moncada, who currently sports a 90 wRC+ in low-A ball and did not impress Keith Law when he scouted him, are troubling for the organization. There is a lot of money tied up in these players, and beyond that, their failures could signal a considerable issue with the team’s process of identifying international talent. With that said, it is way, way too early to panic or go anywhere near labelling these players as busts – in fact, doing so would be madness – but their development from raw talent to productive major league players is important and worth following.

For the better part of the month the Red Sox have hovered around being 10 games under .500, and eightish games back of first place in the American League East. At Baseball Prospectus, the Sox’s playoff odds have dipped below 10%. The reality of all of this is that any hope of the season being a success is likely over, and the front office has some critical decisions to make at the trade deadline. There are many pieces that the Red Sox could trade but many of them will not bring much back (e.g., Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino), are unrealistic (e.g., David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia), or involve overreactions to difficult starts and big contracts (e.g., Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez). One player who could be available and should be intriguing to other teams is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz has been the Red Sox’s best starter this season, which might not be saying much given the comparison group, but stacking him up against the rest of the league shows his value: he has posted the eighth-best FIP among qualified starters in the game. To go with the solid performance, he has a team-friendly contract that includes cheap options for 2016 and 2017. All of this undoubtedly makes him attractive to other teams, but as Alex Speier of The Boston Globe writes, it also makes him a valuable piece for the Red Sox going forward. While things have gone terribly for the team this season, a lot of it has involved players underperforming their projections. The team, as currently constituted, is projected by BP to have the best winning percentage in the division the rest of the way. It is not too much of a stretch to take this as foretelling a much better outcome for a similar group in 2016. Obviously next year’s team will be different from the current group so that is perhaps not the best evidence to support things getting better next year, but the prospect of having Buchholz paired with Eduardo Rodriguez at the front end of the rotation is among the more compelling reasons to think things will improve.

Quick Hits

With the Red Sox demoting Joe Kelly to Triple-A Pawtucket, a spot at the back-end of the rotation was made available. Justin Masterson and Brian Johnson were the most likely candidates to get the role, and the Sox selected Masterson to take the spot the first time it came up on Sunday. Masterson performed well, but CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam thinks that Brian Johnson was the better choice then and for the future.

Speaking of Joe Kelly, he pitched well on Sunday for the PawSox, going seven innings, allowing two runs, five hits, striking out four and only walking one. As Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes, Kelly showed improved command of his fastball and better use of his secondary pitches in the start, which are the primary goals the Red Sox have for him during this important developmental period.

Last week, Mike Napoli struck out in six consecutive plate appearances during the series with the Orioles, and looked bad doing it, glaring at umpires after a number of calls. He has struggled to adapt to the way the strike zone is being called and it is destroying his productivity (.256 TAv is down 38 points from his career norm), but Scott Lauber of the BostonHerald.com writes that despite this fact Napoli has no intention to change his approach.

Rallying to win a game when entering the 9^th inning behind can be part of what makes a team fun to watch; it helps create a sense that the game is never over until the last out is record. It has happened 30 times this year across baseball, but never for the Red Sox, who are 0-38 through the weekend’s games. John Tomase of WEEI.com elaborates on the Red Sox’s stark lack of late game rallies this season.

Three Good Game Stories

Although the Red Sox lost last Thursday’s game to the Orioles thanks to Rodriguez’s struggles, there is still a lot to like in Rodriguez and, as Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com notes in his story, Buchholz reminded the rookie that he has the stuff necessary to succeed at the big league level.

Jason Mastrodonato of the BostonHerald.com writes that Brock Holt, who will be playing second base in Pedroia’s absence, was a huge part of the Red Sox’s extra-inning win on Friday against the Rays.

With questions looming about his place in the rotation, Masterson pitched well in Sunday’s win over the Rays. Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe highlights how Masterson’s time on the disabled list helped him improve his arm strength and re-align his mental approach to the game.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images