We’ve entered into a time when the talent base in Major League Baseball is as stratified as it’s been in a long time, possibly since free agency took hold. This 2017 season featured three 100-win teams, the Dodgers, Astros, and Cleveland. If you believe pythagorean record though, the Yankees should also be added to that list, as their runs scored and allowed numbers were those of a 100-62 team. That only intensifies the situation the Red Sox find themselves in. Over the past 14 seasons (as far back as I looked) there are two seasons with multiple 100-win teams: 2004 and this past season. Obviously there is only one season over that time period that featured more than two 100-win teams: the 2017 season. For Boston, this means three incredibly talented franchises are standing in the way of a World Series win, four if you include the Yankees, and really, why wouldn’t you? That’s a daunting landscape.

The fact that three of those four are in the American League should be downright terrifying if you work on Yawkey Way. This sets the bar extremely high to win a World Series. Just look at what the Yankees will have to do to win this year’s World Series. They beat the 102-win Indians, and they’re likely to beat the 101-win Astros. Their reward should they accomplish that? They get to play the 104-win Dodgers! That has to be about the most brutal stretch of postseason play imaginable! The only other team I can recall who bested multiple 100-win teams in a single postseason was the 2004 Red Sox, who beat the 101-win Yankees and the 105-win Cardinals, but also beat the 92-win Angels in the first round. Otherwise, this level of competition is unprecedented, yet this is exactly what the 2018 Red Sox are likely to face.

So how does a team deal with this kind of competition – a kind of competition that hasn’t been seen in baseball at least for the past few decades, if ever? There are multiple ways of looking at things. The Red Sox could subscribe to what we’ll call the Billy Beane Theory, which says, roughly, just make the playoffs and whatever happens after that is out of your control. The problem with that is it’s only sort of true. Luck plays a huge role in any small sample of baseball games, but even so, it’s incredibly infrequent that a bad team, or even a team you couldn’t make an argument for as one of the best teams in baseball, wins the World Series. It does happen (2011 Cardinals, 2006 Cardinals), but it’s infrequent at best. And just considering the competition, it seems like a poor bet to make. The other part is one of those 100-win teams is in Boston’s division, and the other two are in the other two divisions, so right off you’re competing with the rest of the American League for the Wild Card.

So perhaps the Red Sox should go out and sign J.D. Martinez and trade for Giancarlo Stanton and do more and more and become another 100-win franchise. The problem with that is where the Red Sox are financially. They managed to stay under the luxury cap in 2017 so the tax rate for going over has now dropped substantially, but there is still a penalty. The luxury tax threshold will be $197 million for 2018 and the Red Sox are at $146 million in guarantees before signing anyone eligible for arbitration. Cutting to the end of the page, Cot’s Contracts estimates the Red Sox to be at $202 million, or $5 million over the cap, before making any additions. For context, the Dodgers spent in the neighborhood of $245 million this season. If the Red Sox are going to go out and give Martinez $20 million and take on Stanton’s contract which will pay him $30 a season going forward, you’re talking about blowing past the Dodgers payroll. Maybe that’s doable for an ownership group that really wants to win another World Series. Maybe the finances are set now that the penalties have been lowered and the team is ready to go all in. Dave Dombrowski is an all-in kind of guy, as we’ve seen. But Pablo Sandoval is making $18.5 million next season and again the season after that. Then, in 2020, there’s a $5 million buyout, but you can take most of those savings and flush them down the nearest toilet because that is also the season that Rusney Castillo’s contract goes from $11 million a season to $14 million. The next is Rick Porcello’s last at $21.125 million per season. That’s a lot of money over a lot of years, and most of it isn’t likely to do much to help the Red Sox on the field.

Bringing on a player of [Stanton’s] caliber means the Red Sox are committing to spending over the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future.

Again, here’s that word “maybe.” Maybe the way the Red Sox dealt with Sandoval and, to a lesser but still significant extent, Castillo, is the new way forward. Damn the torpedoes and all of that, but that seems unlikely. It’s not as sexy, granted, but maybe there’s another win in Jackie Bradley’s bat, and two more in Andrew Benintendi if he can avoid an extended midseason slump, and two more in Mookie Betts’ bat while we’re at it, and I couldn’t tell you how many more but a lot more in every part of Xander Bogaerts. Take all that and add a healthy David Price – the guy the organization made a $217 million bet on, remember – and someone tell Rick Porcello to stop throwing belt high 90 mph heaters and before you know it there’s 98, 99, or 100 wins. Maybe.

Would J.D. Martinez help that cause? You better believe it. Would Stanton? A million times over, yes. But what would be the long term impact of bringing one or both or a similar player to Boston? The Red Sox are a New England institution to be sure, but Fenway isn’t growing more seats and NESN can only broadcast 162 games a year. Revenues might go up a bit, but bringing on a player of that caliber means the Red Sox are committing to spending over the luxury tax threshold for the foreseeable future. This of course only gets worse if you want to sign Mookie Betts or Benintendi or Devers to a long term contract.

It’s an extremely tough choice Dave Dombrowski finds himself with. Is it reasonable, or realistic even, to squeeze out seven or eight more wins from this roster that has seemed to peter out at 93 over the past two seasons? That argument can be made. But what is the cost of that not happening? What if this team doesn’t add those wins? What if Price isn’t healthy? What if he is?

The Red Sox are going to spend a lot of money in 2018, that much is for certain. What they get for it is less known. So maybe they should spend more. Or maybe that would sink them. The thing about forks in the road is you have to pick a direction because going straight ahead never works. If he’s not now, Dave Dombrowski is about to become aware of that.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

What follows is a very, very serious breakdown of their abilities and is in no way an attempt to quickly produce content late on a Sunday evening. As such:

2017 RED SOX NON-ROSTER SPRING TRAINING INVITEES, RANKED:

17) Jake DePew, C
I don’t know who Jake DePew is.

16) Jordan Procyshen, C
I don’t know who Jordan Procyshen is.

15) Marcus Walden, RHP
I don’t know who Marcus Walden is.

14) Kyle Kendrick, RHP
I am all too familiar with who Kyle Kendrick is, and so are you. His career ERA is 4.61. He strikes out so few people it’s a wonder Terry Ryan didn’t sign him to a lifetime contract. He’s been a whipping boy the past four seasons, and when he wasn’t a whipping boy, he was an uninspiring no. 5 starter. He might be better than Henry Owens.

13) Dan Butler, C
Dan Butler hit. 308/.399/.452 serving as a backup in Triple-A last season. He’s 30 and he’s bad, but could he be 2017’s Sandy Leon? You decide, friends. You decide.

12) Austin Maddox, RHP
Austin Maddox was a third-round pick out of Florida in 2012. I wanted to say he could be the next Noe Ramirez, but Noe Ramirez had more promising MiLB numbers.

11) Allen Craig, 1B
Joe Kelly’s Great Stuff™ aside, it’s beginning to look like that John Lackey trade might not work out. Craig played in just 29 games last season thanks to knee inflammation. The last time he logged substantial playing time (2015), he hit .274/.368/.350 in Triple-A. Yes, really .350, from a dude a who once slugged .555 in the majors. Sadface.

10) Brian Bogusevic, OF
Bogusevic was a first-round pick, you know. He’s only hit .238/.311/.373 in his career, but he has managed to appear in 321 games, and he has notched 834 PA. And he’s been not totally terrible against RHP in his career, hitting .254/.330/.403. You might call that a disappointment, but it beats the hell out of anything Jason Place, Trey Ball, Michael Chavis or Deven Marrero has done/is going to do. Don’t be mean to Brian Bogusevic, is what I’m saying.

9) Ben Taylor, RHP
The Red Sox converted Taylor to relief in 2016, and the initial results were promising. Taylor carved up High-A hitters to the tune of a 2.60 ERA and a 31.3 K%. He doesn’t really have an out-pitch, though, and seeing as he’s already 24, he needs to show what he’s got in the upper minors to be of any real interest.

8) Jamie Callahan, RHP
Callahan was a second-round pick in 2012. He struck out 22 percent of the batters he faced in High-A last season, which is good. He also walked 13.2 percent of the batters he faced, which is very, extremely bad. Here’s to hoping his second full season in relief goes better than his first. Also, tunnel reference/joke.

7) Junior Lake, OF
You remember Lake, no? Before the Cubs were The Cubs, Lake was one of their more promising prospects, but he was always viewed as high-risk, high-reward. In 2013 it looked like Lake might’ve figured it out, but his MLB success was short-lived. He signed on as a minor league free agent with the Blue Jays last season, and will now fill that role in Boston. It’s his age-27 season and there’s always a chance it will click late with guys, so it makes sense to roll the dice on someone with Lake’s talent. Don’t hold your breath, though.

6) Chandler Shepherd, RHP
Shepherd was dominant as a reliever in Pawtucket last season, but is already 24 and lacks much of anything other than a good slider. He’s got ROOGY potential, but the Red Sox are loaded with ROOGYs.

5) Edgar Olmos, LHP
Over the past two seasons, Olmos has been: DFAd by the Mariners; claimed by the Rangers; returned to the Mariners; DFAd by the Mariners; claimed by the Cubs; claimed by the Orioles; reclaimed by the Cubs; traded to the Orioles and then signed by the Red Sox. Teach your sons to throw left-handed.

4) Rusney Castillo, OF
Don’t you just hate it when you sign on to a new job and then they develop an MVP candidate, a role-6 center fielder and a potential ROY all to do the same thing you do? Just brutal. There’s a non-zero chance Castillo can sniff the majors this season, because aside from Mookie Betts and Chris Young, there’s not a lot of right-handed action occurring in Boston’s outfield. Castillo will need to hit better than .263/.309/.354 in Pawtucket to get another chance in Fenway, though. Also, he’s 29.

3) Matt Dominguez, 3B
We don’t always give scouts the credit they deserve for being right. When Dominguez was drafted, the rap on him was that he’d be a plus defender at the hot corner and that he’d have some pop, but the it tool was a big question mark. Check and check. Dominguez is good with the glove and has big right-handed power, but he didn’t hit well enough to earn an everyday job somewhere. He could, theoretically, earn himself a platoon role with Pablo Sandoval, as Evan Drellich writes here. Could Dominguez essentially take Travis Shaw’s spot on the 2017 roster? These are the  questions that keep us all up at night.

2) Sam Travis, 1B
At some point this season Sam Travis is going to be labeled as a potential savior, and it’s going to suck. Travis is a doubles-hitting first baseman who has a real nose for the ball but who lacks elite power or an elite glove. Can he be a part of a first-division team? Yes. Should he be an everyday starter? No. Is he going to solve any offensive problems the Red Sox have halfway through the season? Not at all. The thinning out of the farm system is gonna make Travis seem better than he is — there’s an argument he’s the third-best dude in the system after Rafael Devers and Jason Groome, once Andrew Benintendi graduates. I feel bad for him.

1) Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers, however, is not overrated. He recently ranked as the no. 13 overall prospect in BP’s top-101, as he could be a potential 6-power, 6-hit third baseman. That presumes quite a few things, of course — the power comes, the hit tool plays up, he stays at the hot corner — but he’s got legit, All-Star-level upside. He shouldn’t contribute much in 2017, but it’s not crazy to think he’ll be a factor in 2018. He’s the most interesting non-roster invitiee heading into the season, and odds are he will be next season, too.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

As football season shifts to baseball and the first pictures from Fort Myers trickle in, we start reading and thinking about the Red Sox. Given the extra time Boston fans have to commit to the Sox this week, new opinions and points of analysis can take hold within Sox Nation. And, guys, I would like to throw my hat into the ring with a pretty hot take: I’m starting to think Rusney Castillo may not have been worth $72 million. Let’s call it a hunch and take a look back at his 2016 season.

What went right in 2016

The best things that happened to Rusney Castillo last season had nothing to do with Rusney Castillo. It was the fact that the Red Sox won 93 games. It was Mookie Betts smashing his way to a second-place MVP showing. It was Jackie Bradley Jr. raking 26 homers and earning a .835 OPS. And it was Andrew Benintendi, with his hair and dance moves, making an immediate impact in Boston after being called up.

Rusney Castillo’s 2016 was good because no one was paying attention. The big-league squad was massively exciting, and all the outfielders (the real ones, I’m so sorry Blake Swihart) played well. There was no room to think about Rusney Castillo. If there had been … yikes.

What went wrong in 2016

In nine games with the major league team, Castillo made eight plate appearances, nabbing a pair of hits and striking out three times. He was inserted as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement six of those nine games, starting just twice.

Castillo spent most of his season at the triple-A level, where things just weren’t much better. He slashed .263/.309/.354/.664 in 103 games and just under 400 at-bats. He had just a pair of homers and 34 RBIs and stole nine bases. Pretty much everything went wrong and, at this point, Castillo appears to be nothing more than a middling Triple-A outfielder. Don’t shed a tear for him, though, he’s still getting capital-p Paid.

What to expect in 2017

Castillo arrived in Boston to massive hype at the tail end of a miserable 2014 season. Given an under-performing team, it was fun to latch onto the expectations of a $70-plus million investment in a player who appeared to hold huge talent. Unfortunately, two full seasons into the seven-year deal, none of that talent has shown itself on the big-league level. It’s sad, but if you’re expecting much out of Castillo in 2017, I wouldn’t hold your breath. The 2017 Red Sox are stacked with young players poised make an October run, and Rusney Castillo will likely not be a part of it.

Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The wheeling and dealing of the offseason is done for the Red Sox and realistically only two positions (catcher, third base) will involve any sort of competition in the Spring, so the discussion of how to best align the players is worth starting. Today, the batting order. Criticizing a batting order for any one game is likely a bit much – playoffs are a different animal – but consistently using sub-optimal lineups can amount to one or two fewer wins over the course of the season. So making an effort to optimize the lineup, which is fairly simple and cheap, is a worthwhile endeavour. You, smart reader of this website, probably already know all this, but I felt the need to further justify discussing the batting order in January. In any case, the batting order comes up because Red Sox manager John Farrell recently discussed it.

In an interview on WEEI, Farrell said that he is considering Andrew Benintendi for the number two spot in the lineup. That seems like a dramatic move for a player who started last year in Double-A. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal examined this idea, outlining how Benintendi’s skillset would work at the top of the order and how having him there would break up the four right-handed batters (i.e., Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez) that are likely to be at the top.

I like the idea of having Benintendi at the top of the order for the reasons MacPherson cites in his article, but I would not hit him second. I would drop him one spot to hit him third. Specifically, here is how I would write out the lineups:

Having Benintendi hit third rather than second may seem minor, but it keeps Betts, the team’s best hitter, in the all-important second spot, splits the right-handed hitters at the top of the order evenly, and prevents overloading things with left-handed hitters in the six through nine spots.

There are two other aspects worth noting about these suggested lineups. First, Pablo Sandoval is considered a switch-hitter, even though that aspect of his game is not necessarily known at this point. His ability to hit right-handed means that hitting him between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mitch Moreland avoids having back-to-back lefties, thereby making life a little more difficult for opposing managers who want to matchup relievers later in the game. Second, if/when Blake Swihart assumes the primary catching duties, I would slot him into the nine spot currently occupied by Sandy Leon, but I can see the case for flipping him with Sandoval if his offense takes off the way some people think it will.

Ok. I suspect that’s enough lineup talk for now.

Quick Hits

In some respects this offseason has been strange. The most prominent example of this is the number of sluggers who remain unsigned (e.g., Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter) and how the market for those who have signed(e.g., Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista) collapsed. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more on how the league is valuing sluggers differently than they have in the past. The availability of these offensive threats has Brian MacPherson wondering if the Red Sox moved too quickly in acquiring Mitch Moreland. Perhaps, but I think the team’s desire to get under the luxury tax threshold ruled out all of the marquee names.

As currently constituted, the Red Sox have six candidates for the five starting rotation spots. Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello will certainly hold three of the five spots. The last two are available for Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright to take. On a recent episode of Buster Olney’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Dave Dombroski suggested that Wright and Pomeranz have the inside line. Nick Friar of CSNNE.com examines each possible pairing for the remaining spots and suggests that Dombrowski’s preference is not the best option. Who knows how strongly Dombrowski feels that the spots are Wright and Pomeranz’s to lose. Maybe this was just an old-school-tactic of using the media to try and light a fire under Rodriguez.

While questions remain in the rotation, the starting lineups are pretty much set – well, maybe not at catcher. At MLB.com, Ian Browne has been writing an Around the Horn series that looks at each area of the Red Sox. He started with the relatively unclear status of the catching position, then moved onto the corner infield spots and middle infielders, and finally the Baby Bs in the outfield. The series is definitely worth checking out.

An aspect of the Red Sox organization that likely helped their young core transition to the major league level is the Rookie Development Program that they run. This program is intended to familiarize players expected to reach the big leagues in the near future (~18 months) with members of the front office, the Red Sox coaching staff, and the city of Boston. Alex Speier has details on the eight players invited to the program this year, which includes Rafael Devers, Sam Travis and a bunch of relievers.

Speaking of development, Rusney Castillo – remember him? – is still in the organization and, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, might be back in the mix. This suggestion comes as a result of Castillo’s strong performance with Alex Cora’s team in the Puerto Rico Winter League. While the outfielders at the big league level are established, a solid Spring Training could earn Castillo an opportunity to start in Pawtucket and/or pique the interest of another organization.

Much has been written about the overhauling of the Red Sox bullpen. Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Brad Ziegler are gone. Tyler Thornburg has been added and Joe Kelly has permanently shifted his focus to life as a reliever. Another player who many, including myself, are counting on to provide strong innings out of the bullpen is Carson Smith. Smith is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and as such is not expected to be back with the Red Sox before mid-season. But, as Matt Collins, managing editor (congratulations, Matt!) of Over the Monster, reminds us, coming back from Tommy John surgery is no guarantee. Ideally Smith is more Nate Jones than Bobby Parnell.

Finally, do you want to know what baseball-analytics-legend and Red Sox Senior Advisor Bill James thinks of the 2017 team? Last week he talked to Brian Kenny on MLB Now about that very thing, check out their discussion here.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

No one would say the hitting’s been a problem, as it’s the one thing keeping the team afloat. But what about the bench players? They’re not a particularly inspiring group, but they’re not main cogs of the run-scoring machine the Red Sox run out there every day. You could definitely fault them as a whole for being pretty terrible, though.

On Opening Day, the Red Sox began the season in Cleveland with a bench that included Ryan Hanigan, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Young, and Rusney Castillo. While benches aren’t exactly supposed to be imposing, this one certainly wasn’t at first. Chris Young is the one good name here, and he’s currently on the disabled list after pulling a hamstring. Sandoval’s shoulder ended up being a lot worse than we thought, and he was done for the year. Rusney Castillo has been so bad in both Triple-A Pawtucket and the big league club that he’s since been removed from the 40-man roster. Hanigan’s a backup, but even he was sidelined by a neck strain, and catching Steven Wright hasn’t helped his defensive metrics in any way.

So, next one(s) up, right? Here comes Christian Vazquez, who clubbed a home run I can only describe as immensely satisfying to watch. The clean sound off the bat, the arc, the – well, everything.

As great as that dinger was, it didn’t take long for Vazquez to revert back to his old ways of simply not hitting. The thing is, you accept that if he could play some of his trademark phenomenal defense, right? He didn’t have that either. After a June that saw Vazquez hit .189/.246/.226, he was sent to Pawtucket, and Sandy Leon was called up.

Then Leon caught fire, and in just 60 PA, he amassed 1.1 WARP. Catchers, man. Apart from Young, Leon might be the best guy here in terms of contributing to the 2016 team.

I’d talk about Blake Swihart with the rest of the backstops, but he was a catcher for all of a month. Swihart was sent back down to Triple-A to learn how to play left field, as Brock Holt had one good week and didn’t really do much after that. Come May, it turned out Holt was also playing through concussion symptoms. So Swihart gets installed as the left-handed platoon partner in LF, and promptly gets injured while playing a position he had all of a few months worth of experience with. Another bench player bites the dust, albeit an out-of-position one.

“But Brett,” you argue, “catcher depth is going to have some very steep fall-off in production after the starter!” And yes, that’s true. The thing is, all the guys who haven’t been backup catchers on the Red Sox’s bench have collectively been just as bad.

Of the infielders, Marco Hernandez has promise, but that’s about all you can say for whomever’s graced the Red Sox bench over the last couple months. Josh Rutledge was doing okay filling in here and there, but knee tendinitis has sidelined him, forcing the Red Sox to rely on Deven Marrero and Mike Miller – yeah, that was my reaction too – to help put a band-aid on a bullet wound.

The outfielders are in the same spot. Chris Young’s pulled hammy opened the door for Bryce Brentz, who has done well early on, but you’re not going to be sold on a guy who has a 25% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. Ryan LaMarre has appeared, and then disappeared, kinda like this pitch:

RYAN LAMARRE pic.twitter.com/Pz7n1gCMXa

— Joon Lee (@iamjoonlee) June 21, 2016

Yeah. That’s what the Red Sox have been dealing with.

So what’s been the point of me listing off all the failings of guys of which the majority shouldn’t be starting in the first place? Well, it’s because this is starting to become an issue as bad as the starting pitching. It’s just not as evident or instantly noticeable.

The 2016 Red Sox are being propelled on the strength of the hitting of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and David Ortiz, with some help thrown in by the likes of Dustin Pedroia and Travis Shaw. But man, does it ever drop off after that. Hanley Ramirez has been okay, sure, but who do you turn to when he can’t buy a hit and Travis Shaw starts regressing from hitting .350 for two months? You turn to the bench.

This time, there was nothing on the bench to shore up whatever the Red Sox lacked. Combined with a pitching staff that got worse at the worst time, the Red Sox trudged through a 10-16 June, and the left field situation got so bad that people started wondering if Andrew Benintendi could work out in a call-up to the majors from Double-A Portland.

Benches, in a vacuum, aren’t supposed to be good. I get that. The players aren’t starting because they’re not good enough to do so, and we weren’t going to see something like 2013 where guys like Mike Carp and Jonny Gomes annihilated everything they saw. But the Sox, with the resources they have, should’ve done better.

Thankfully, Dave Dombrowski’s taking steps to actually fix all this, trading for Aaron Hill, who was – relative to the Sox bench – smacking the hell out of the ball in Milwaukee. It’s a start. They might just have to wait for guys to come back off the DL for more help.

One can only hope the regulars keep doing what they’re doing, since the Red Sox can’t really afford for them to do much else. That’s the situation they’ve ended up in after the first half, and it’s not going away anytime soon.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Through Tuesday’s games the Red Sox’s offense is still the best run-scoring group in baseball. Alas, the thing that has held the Sox from performing at a Cubs-like level is their run prevention. Beyond David Price and breakout star Steven Wright, the starting rotation is a bit of a mess. That is probably too harsh an assessment of Rick Porcello, as his ERA, cFIP and DRA are all below league average and, as Christopher Smith of MassLive.com notes, through 14 starts Porcello has been much better this year than he was last year.

After Porcello is the morass of Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens and Roenis Elias. Rodriguez has made four starts since returning from the disabled list and only one of them was good. In his Red Sox notebook, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that the organization has told Rodriguez that his time in the big league rotation is running out. If Rodriguez needs more time at Triple-A to get his mechanics and focus sorted out that is fine. But the question then becomes: who replaces Rodriguez? The fifth spot is already being used as an open tryout from week-to-week with no one doing much to show they should hold the job.

After five good outings in relief, Buchholz got another chance to start on Tuesday night against the White Sox. His first pitch was hit for a home run, his second pitch was hit for a double, and his third pitch, a ball, received cheers from the home crowd. He settled in for five innings, but allowed another home run and did not exactly instill confidence that he can be effective going forward. Buchholz spoke with Alex Speier of The Boston Globe about the difficulties of his 2016 season thus far. Buchholz seems to endlessly be the guy with all kinds of potential who can’t put it together for long periods.

Given that none of Owens, Kelly and Elias are likely to solve the rotation’s current woes, the fix will need to come from outside the organization. With the non-waiver trade deadline a little over a month away it is worth thinking about what the Red Sox will (or should) do to improve the club. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald suggests a number of players for whom the Red Sox should consider trading and does not shy away from big names. Jose Fernandez, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, and Sonny Gray are examples. To me, Cole and Sale are unlikely to get moved this season, but Fernandez or Gray could be had, albeit at a steep cost in prospects. Despite the cost, at Over the Monster, Marc Normandin reminds us that the Red Sox are going to move some of their prospects eventually as that is part of what prospects are for: chips to fill holes on the major league team. That, and some of the emerging players at the lower levels are blocked by someone on the major league team. The counter point to this idea is given by Bill Ballou at The Providence Journal, who used the organization’s history in trade deadline deals for pitching as a cautionary tale.

Regardless of your thoughts on which prospects should be moved (if at all), there are clear holes to fill: starter, reliever, left fielder, left-handed bench bat. With the Red Sox in contention this season, the next month of trade rumors and proposals should be more fun than it was in the last two seasons when the team was on the selling side of things.

Quick Hits

Steven Wright, a bright spot in the aforementioned struggling rotation, continued his impressive season on Monday night, throwing nine innings of one run ball, lowering his RA9 to 2.84. Wright spoke with the Boston Herald’s Evan Drellich to give an inside look at how he remains a calm, relaxed presence on the team. The story contains interesting insights into Wright’s development as a baseball player, and also how turning to Christianity helped mature his outlook on life.

Rusney Castillo was outrighted off the 40-man roster on Monday, as his continued ineptitude with the bat makes him useless to the major league team. In the Providence Journal, Tim Britton writes that while this move could be read as an effort to correct Castillo’s issues, it is more likely that he is not part of the team’s future plans. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe has more on Castillo’s demotion, focusing on what has turned out to be a disastrous contract.

When David Ortiz announced he would be retiring after the 2016 season I thought it was a curious decision. After seeing other players go through the year-long goodbye party he must have known how making the announcement would change, at the very least, his media commitments for the season. Well, he apparently underestimated the extent of the change and as a result regrets the decision. In an interview with Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes, Ortiz talked about how there are too many people to whom he needs to pay attention and how the demands on his time are affecting his ability to prepare for games. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, despite his stellar performance thus far, Ortiz is not changing his mind about retiring. He says the daily grind and pain are too much to go through for another year.

While one man’s Red Sox career is coming to an end, another’s is progressing. This past weekend, the organization promoted top-prospect Yoan Moncada from High-A Salem to Double-A Portland. At Bleacher Report, Bill Speros has a great profile of Moncada and the hype that has followed him since he was signed. The hype will only increase with this promotion. For more on what led the Red Sox to promote Moncada up to Portland, check out Alex Speier’s article outlining the baseball/organization perspective on the move in The Boston Globe.

Three Good Game Stories

Monday night’s series opening game against the White Sox was there for the Red Sox taking in the bottom of the ninth, but after loading the bases with nobody out they failed to score. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald has more on the Red Sox failure in the big moment.

On Father’s Day the Red Sox beat the Seattle Mariners behind another great start from David Price. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com details the game and how in Price’s last eight starts he has been pitching like the dominant starter for whom the Red Sox paid.

In his coverage of Saturday’s win for WEEI.com, John Tomase noted that Rick Porcello managed his way in-and-out of trouble, ultimately providing a much-needed solid outing from a starter not named David Price or Steven Wright. In support of Porcello, the Sox’s offense scored 6 runs with Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. going yard.

Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA)

Unsurprisingly, the top play in this one came via the bat of Adam Jones, who very much enjoyed the portion of the game in which Eduardo Rodriguez pitched. In this particular at bat, the Orioles center fielder came to the plate in a scoreless game following a leadoff walk to the incredibly unincredible Paul Janish. After working a 3-0 count, Jones — a tremendous fastball hitter — was sitting waiting for a fastball from Rodriguez. It was a smart move, as he got the green light and crushed a fastball up in the zone over the CITGO sign (+.169), giving Baltimore a lead it would never relinquish.

Bottom Play (WPA)
This game was not close at any point, as even when it was scoreless the Red Sox were never able to get anything resembling a rally going. The closest was in the bottom half of the third when they had two straight baserunners after recording two quick outs. Dustin Pedroia then came to the plate with a chance to at least tie what was then a 2-0 deficit. Instead, he pooped out weakly to Chris Davis in foul territory right in front of the dugout (-.050).

Eduardo Rodriguez Was Bad Again

Rodriguez’s return was supposed to be key to a Red Sox rotation that desperately needed competent arms in the back of the rotation. After his first start against Baltimore, he looked to be at least solid enough to keep the offense in games most night. Since then…well, not so much. Rodriguez now has three straight Bad starts and owns a 6.97 ERA to go with a 7.06 ERA through his first four starts of the season. As many posited last night, it’s probably time to send him back to Pawtucket to figure out what’s ailing him, whether that be pitch tipping, his knee or something else entirely. The only problem, of course, is the utter lack of options in the Red Sox organization.

The Offense Stunk, Too

While it’s not nearly as concerning in the long-term as Rodriguez’s rough night, the offense was just as much to blame for this loss. At the end of the day, five runs really isn’t that much to ask for from Boston’s offense that has seemingly put up double digits in its sleep earlier in the year. This is particularly true when the opposing pitcher is Tyler freaking Wilson. To Wilson’s credit, he pitched well for most of the game. You don’t throw eight scoreless innings without pitching well. However, a ton of credit also goes to Baltimore’s defense and whoever is in charge of positioning them. By my unofficial count, the Orioles defense stole about seven hits from the Red Sox either from great defense or positioning, or both. Like I said, I don’t think this performance has any long-term implications of this lineup*, but it was extremely frustrating to watch while it unfolded.

*Rusney Castillo is excluded from this. He finally got a chance to start and reminded everyone why he never gets chances to start.

David Ortiz is still David Ortiz, though

Even on a night when the lineup had nothing in the tank, Ortiz finds a way to make things fun. He got his Daily Double in the seventh, though it was much closer than it had any business being due to his inability to run. Then, with two outs in the ninth and the game essentially over, he blasted a home run into the bleachers in right field. The man now has a .371 ISO. Twenty six qualified batters have a lower slugging percentage than that.

Coming Next

The Red Sox stay at home this weekend, with the Mariners coming to town. Seattle got off to a hot start, and while they have cooled off recently they are still in second place in the AL West and over .500. Roenis Elias gets the start for Boston tonight, facing off against his old team for his first start in a Red Sox uniform. His counterpart will be Hisashi Iwakuma. First pitch is at 7:10 pm.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Sox fans started the season assuming Rusney Castillo would start in left, but his meekness at the plate during spring training combined with his meekness at the plate last season both with the Red Sox and in Triple-A led the team to lose confidence in him. Thus at the start of the season he was sent to Pawtucket and utility man Brock Holt was installed as the starter. The team also signed Chris Young as a lefty-bashing platoon option over the offseason. Now Holt is hurt, his replacement, Blake Swihart, is hurt as well, and Castillo has continued his ineffectiveness in Pawtucket, which leaves Young as the starter. This is a problem.

It is June 10th and Chris Young has been the second best hitter on the Red Sox.

Or is it? It’s been thought that an upgrade in left field should be among the improvements Team President Dave Dombrowski seeks to make before the trade deadline at the end of July. Big names like Ryan Braun and Carlos Gonzalez have been tossed around. But as with most big names, there will be significant cost to acquire them. Chris Young is here now. So there’s that. Also this: Chris Young is hitting .310/.383/.619. By TAv that’s the fourth best on the Sox, and really it’s the second best because the two best are Sandy Leon and Rusney Castillo, compiled in four and one plate appearance(s), respectively. Let me say that plainly: It is June 10th and Chris Young has been the second best hitter on the Red Sox. He’s been better than Jackie Bradley, better than Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts, better than Dustin Pedroia or Travis Shaw. Now I’ll put your thoughts on this into print as a response: What?

And my response to your response: I know!

And your response to my response to your response: WHAT!

And my response to your response to my response to your response: I KNOW!

Thing is, TAv isn’t a cumulative stat, which you should know unless you think that one double Sandy Leon hit was the most amazing double in the history of baseball (honestly, it may have been). That means when we compare players’ TAvs we have to take sample size into account. To date, Chris Young has 94 PAs. That’s not much, especially when measured against the 4,779 he’s had in his career. So know that. Know that players get better, they get worse, they learn new skills and forget old ones. And know that 94 plate appearances isn’t often enough to discern which of those things is happening.

In his career against left handed pitchers Chris Young has hit .267/.365/.482. That’s quite good. And this year he’s hitting .419/.486/.774, which is scary clown insane. But the downside of Chris Young, aside from his name and the resulting confusion achieved from accidentally getting hitting stats for a 37-year-old pitcher, is that he can’t hit right-handed pitching. We knew that coming in, which is why he made a perfect platoon for Brock Holt.

In his career, Young has hit .225/.293/.413 against righties. That’s not good, but the reality is likely much worse, as two of his three most recent seasons have seen him hit below the Mendoza line with an on-base below .250 against righties. That’s scary clown in your closet bad and you would thus conclude that Young has no business in the batters box when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound. And you’d be right. But the Red Sox were in a bit of a pickle with injuries to Holt and Swihart, and of course Castillo’s continued incompetence with the bat, so manager John Farrell made the decision to install Young as the starter in left until the injuries cleared up. So you’d expect Young to be bad against right handed pitchers, and to hopefully make up for it a bit against lefties, but that’s not how it’s gone. Instead, Young has bruised righties as well, hitting .245/.322/.528 against them! That’s not too far off from how he’s typically hit lefties in his career. A bit of a lower batting average and walk rate and a bit higher in the slugging department, but not too dissimilar.

What’s more, of his five homers, four have come against right-handed pitchers. The Red Sox have had some of the bad surprises this season, but this is undoubtedly one of the good surprises. So the question becomes how good is Chris Young, really? We know he can hit, hit with power, and get on base against left-handed pitchers, but if he can do two of those reasonably well against right handed pitchers also, well then the Red Sox are off the hook in left field and that’s great. It’s also great because they could cross left field off the list of To Do items at the trade deadline, focus on improving the pitching staff, and let other teams over pay for Gonzalez, Braun, and the rest.

I said earlier that 94 PAs isn’t enough to know, and it still isn’t, but we can take a look at some data and see what stands out. A huge difference between facing a left-handed pitcher as a right-handed hitter and facing a right-handed pitcher as a right-handed hitter is pitch mix. A lefty is not typically going to throw sliders to Young, as they would break in toward his bat as opposed to outside away from it. So when Young faces left-handed pitchers, he doesn’t typically see many sliders — just seven percent in his career — whereas he’s seen 22 percent sliders when he faces right handers. And against sliders from right-handed pitchers, of the times he’s swung, he’s missed over 40 percent of the time.

So, can Young now hit sliders from right handers? According to Brooks Baseball, he’s seen 45 from righties this season and he’s done fine against them. What we can’t know, and now we’ll start to see the nuts and bolts of why small samples are important, is how good the sliders he’s seen have been. There can be a huge difference in quality when you’re talking about groups of just 45 pitches. To further illustrate this, I looked up the homer Young hit on a slider, and this is it:

That was a slider in name only, and might just be the worst pitch thrown to anyone in the majors this year. Credit to Young for doing what a major leaguer should do to a pitch of that quality, but hitting that over the wall isn’t proof that a player can now hit sliders from same-sided pitchers. It’s proof they can hit homers in batting practice.

I should note that this also isn’t proof that Young can’t hit sliders from right handed pitchers. It’s not really proof of anything. It’s one incredibly bad pitch, and that’s all.

As in so many of these types of pieces, the end result is really this: we don’t know. We don’t know if Chris Young’s success against right-handers thus far means he’s now competent enough for full-time duty in left field. We don’t know if this is just a small sample blip and his true talent remains as terrible against righties as he was last season with New York (.182/.246/.339).

All we can do is watch and see. So I’ve watched some video and compared Young this season to last season and, guess what, his stance is different. I don’t remember hearing anything about this, but he changed it rather significantly. Here he is hitting that homer off Darren O’Day’s “slider”:

Now compare that to this, taken from early in 2015 when Young was with the Yankees.

You’ll notice with the Red Sox Young’s hands are lower and he is much more upright this season, while last season with the Yankees he was crouched down more, legs wider apart, with hands held much higher. I wanted to see if maybe he just changed his stance in 2015 and that was the outlier, so I watched some video of him earlier in his career and his 2015 stance was his stance earlier in his career as well. Here he is about to homer while with the Mets in 2014:

And here’s Young back in 2012 with the Diamondbacks:

So Chris Young is doing something differently and he’s getting different results. Is this new stance helping Young hit righties? Maybe. Maybe not. It’s different and so is his performance but correlation is not causation. It’s also not not causation. Chew on that in the bathroom.

For now, Young has been riding a wave of good fortune and good play. He’s never performed like this against right handers before, but he has had some decent seasons in the past so maybe, just maybe, Young can maintain something like this going forward against right handed pitchers. If so, maybe one of the Red Sox big problems has already been solved.

Top photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

Triple-A Pawtucket: Roenis Elias (LHP) and Bryce Brentz (OF)

Roenis Elias was the second player the Red Sox acquired in the Wade Miley-Carson Smith trade with the Mariners this winter. Elias seemed to fit in among the Steven Wright, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson morass of a fifth spot in the rotation. But then his 10.45 ERA in the spring ensured he would start the year at Pawtucket, and unfortunately things have gotten only slightly better. Through his first 25 innings this season he had a 7.20 RA9 (4.83 FIP). Walking 19 batters while striking out 20 will do that to you. Clearly things have been rough for Elias, and just as his chances of getting another shot in the big leagues appeared to be slipping away, he went out and was pretty dominant in his most recent start. Over 7.2 innings (his longest of the season) he allowed only two runs (both solo home runs), walked nobody (!) and struck out 13 (!). According to a report from Tim Britton of The Providence Journal, Pawtucket pitching coach Bob Kipper noticed a rhythm issue in Elias’ delivery and worked with him to implement a freer approach with how he delivered the ball. Obviously, the early results from this adjustment are positive. If it is truly the change needed to get Elias back on track, maintaining consistency with the adjusted delivery will be crucial. If Elias is unstuck and can return to a moderate level of effectiveness, he provides the Red Sox an option other than Henry Owens to fill an open rotation spot.

Bryce Brentz suffered an oblique strain during Spring Training that kept him out of game action for the first two weeks of the season. Then once he got into the lineup it took some time to get things going. He spent the first part of the season at Double-A Portland, where he accumulated 48 plate appearances and posted a .200/.333/.325 line with two doubles and one home run. That is not a great line, but he was moved back up to Pawtucket and with his promotion came a bump in his offensive production. Over his 48 PA with the PawSox he has posted a .295/.354/.364 line, with three doubles but no home runs. While his batting average has seen the largest jump, largely a result of a correspondingly large rise in batting average on balls in play (BABIP), his power is still lacking. His .068 isolated power this season at Pawtucket, will, if it continues, be the lowest mark of his career (among stints with at least 25 PA). Brentz is projected for considerable power, so this lack of it in the early going is slightly concerning. But it is only 48 PA, so there is not yet any real reason for alarm.

Brentz’s path to the big leagues appears murky. His hit tool is likely his ticket upward, but he needs to hit more than he has this year and did last year (.264 TAv), or at least get back to his lefty-mashing ways of 2014 when he posted a 1.039 OPS against lefties (.698 OPS against righties) if he is going to get called up. His defense is fine, but not outstanding to the point of needing to have him roam the Fenway lawn. According to his fielding runs above average number, which should be interpreted cautiously, he was an above average outfielder last year, but is back below average this year. Regardless, with a defender like Rusney Castillo, a utility guy like Brock Holt, and infielders like Travis Shaw and Blake Swihart all ahead of Brentz on the outfield depth chart, Brentz’s chances to get back to the big leagues with Boston appear grim.

Quick update on Rusney Castillo (OF)

When we last checked on Rusney Castillo, he was struggling at the plate, especially in the power department. That problem has not changed. He has nine hits over the last two weeks – all but one of which are singles – and has walked and struck out twice. Put it all together and his season line now sits at an unimpressive .256/.313/.308. While many (including me) thought Jackie Bradley Jr. was the all-glove, no-bat outfielder in the Red Sox system, at least Bradley Jr. hit at Pawtucket. The same cannot be said for Castillo. This is probably the last time I provide this sort of quick update on him.

Double-A Portland: Aaron Wilkerson (RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (OF)

In 2015, the relatively unheralded Aaron Wilkerson moved from Low-A to High-A to Double-A over the course of the season. In his 119.2 innings between Salem (79.0) and Portland (40.2), Wilkerson posted a remarkable 3.08 RA9, with a 2.13 FIP that suggested he was even better. This year he has picked up where he left off, dominating opponents and posting scoreless innings. To date, he has made seven starts for the Sea Dogs, five of which have been scoreless and only one was a clunker (3.1 innings, six runs, eight hits, three walks, four strikeouts). All told, in his 39.1 innings for the Sea Dogs he has struck out 46 batters while walking 12. His last time out, against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (the Blue Jays’ affiliate), he had arguably his best start of the season, throwing 7.1 scoreless innings, allowing only two hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. After reading about Wilkerson’s domination, it seems as though he is due for a promotion to Triple-A. Well, he had an opportunity earlier this season to start a game for Pawtucket and it did not go too well (4.2 innings, seven hits, three runs, one home run, three walks, five strikeouts). He was sent back to Portland after the outing and his first start back was the clunker I mentioned above; certainly an interesting week for Mr. Wilkerson. In any case, if he continues to impress at Double-A the way he has so far he will get another chance at the next level.

Two weeks ago I campaigned for Andrew Benintendi to get promoted to Portland so that I could watch him play. The promotion came too late for me to see him, but it came nevertheless. He has now played four games for the Sea Dogs and is still adjusting to the higher level. He has been held hitless, a feat that seemed unthinkable at High-A, in three of his four games and has struck out in five of his 16 PA. To put that in some perspective, he struck out just nine times in his 155 PA with Salem this year. Benintendi has done nothing but hit at an advanced level at each stop in his young career, so it seems likely that he will get back to raking soon.

High-A Salem: Trey Ball (LHP)

The Red Sox selected left-handed pitcher Trey Ball with the seventh pick of the 2013 first-year player draft. Since then Ball has struggled to live up to his draft status in ways that other Red Sox seventh-overall picks have (see Benintendi, Andrew). At each of his three stops in the Red Sox system, Ball has posted an ERA over 4.50 with corresponding fielding independent numbers that suggest he has been that bad. Thus far in 2016, Ball has been effective in limiting runs from scoring (1.96 RA9), but his 4.20 FIP portends a return to previous runs allowed marks, as do his career low .203 BABIP and career high 84.8% strand rate. Basically, he has been navigating trouble by having opponents hit it where they are, which probably won’t last.

Generally, Ball’s major issue is walking batters. In 23.0 innings this year he has allowed nine walks (3.51 BB/9). Last year it was even worse, as he allowed 60 walks in his 129.1 innings pitched for Salem (4.18 BB/9). He has to reduce his walk totals if he is going to succeed and move up in the system. In his most recent outing, Ball kept the opponents, Kansas City’s High-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, off the scoreboard, scattered five hits, and only walked two batters over a career high seven innings. What’s more is that he struck out six batters, the third highest total in his young career. Ideally this start is an indication he is headed in the right direction, but it is one start and the Blue Rocks are the weakest offensive team in the Carolina League this year.

Updates on Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers:

Yoan Moncada, like his old teammate Benintendi, is likely to get a promotion soon. He is still dominating pitchers at his level to the tune of a .324/.454/.510 line, and has 29 stolen bases in 35 tries.

Just when it seemed Rafael Devers was coming out of his early season struggles, he had another rough couple of weeks going .182/.234/.205 over his most recent 47 PA. His season line is currently 39 percent worse than average, so he has a lot of work to do if he is going to join his fellow Big Three teammates in Portland.

Low-A Greenville: Luis Alexander Basabe (OF)

The Greenville Drive team’s offense has been great in the early going this season, and that is despite top-prospect Luis Alexander Basabe struggling to consistently produce. Basabe was signed by the Red Sox, along with his brother Luis Alejandro Basabe, in 2012. Luis Alexander spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons in rookie ball, before getting assigned to Lowell last year for his age-18 season. At each level he has produced solid offensive numbers, but has had difficulty thus far at Low-A. His season line is currently .213/.265/.418, which is a bit of a strange line that comes as a result of half of his 26 hits going for extra bases (five doubles, four triples, four home runs). Regardless, a .213 batting average is ugly, and mixing it with a lack of walks is also concerning. He clearly needs to develop better plate discipline, work to earn more walks and focus on attacking pitches in the strike zone. His combination of a high strikeout rate, low walk rate, and below-typical BABIP (.282) could suggest that the low batting average comes as a result of him often making contact on pitches outside the strike zone, which tend to have poorer outcomes. Without access to his swing and batted ball data (i.e., O-Swing%, O-Contact%, exit velocity) I cannot address this hypothesis directly, but the poor plate discipline numbers point to it being plausible. Regardless, given his age, Basabe will spend at least this season with the Drive, so he will have plenty of time and many opportunities to develop into a more well-rounded hitter.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Triple-A Pawtucket: Brian Johnson (LHP)

Brian Johnson has been on the Fenway’s Future radar for the last couple of seasons. The big lefty is expected to provide the pitching depth the Red Sox will need over the course of another long season. Johnson did not earn a spot in the big league rotation in the spring, as he was limited by a sprained toe that forced him to miss a couple of weeks. The toe injury was costly, but the decision to start Johnson in Pawtucket is understandable given that he is also working his way back from a nerve-related elbow injury that abruptly ended his 2015 season. He was able to avoid surgery on his elbow but the Red Sox are still treating him carefully as they know the sort of asset he can be.

After missing time this spring, Johnson is still getting stretched out, so his starts have been shorter than is typical for an effective starter at the Triple-A level. Regardless, his two outings (4.0 and 5.1 innings, respectively) have been solid. He has allowed only three runs, given up 10 hits, struck out nine opponents and walked three (2.89 RA9, 3.66 FIP). While only two starts, these results suggest the effectiveness he showed at Pawtucket in 2015 remains, and now he needs to continue working up the necessary arm strength to remain effective deeper into games.

If Johnson continues to pitch as effectively as he has in the early going and shows that his elbow and toe issues are behind him, he could be pitching in Boston soon. Johnson and teammate Henry Owens have put themselves in a position to be the first ones called upon when a spot opens in the Red Sox rotation.

Quick updates on Rusney Castillo (OF) and Blake Swihart (C, OF)

Through Monday’s games, Castillo has started four times, once at each of the outfield spots (and another in left field), posted a .375/.524/.438 line in 19 plate appearances, and has stolen three bases without getting caught. Simply put, things are looking much better for Rusney.

Swihart has started two games, both at catcher, and posted a .200/.200/.300 line in 10 PA. On the defensive side of things he has erased two of the four would-be base stealers who tested him.

Double-A Portland: Luis Ysla (LHP)

Last week, I noted that an area in which the Red Sox are thin is left-handed relief arms. With this in mind I suggested this could help Williams Jerez get on the fast track to the major league bullpen. The same is true for Jerez’s teammate, Luis Ysla. The Red Sox acquired Ysla from the San Francisco Giants late last season in exchange for Alejandro De Aza. Ysla pitched well in each of his first two season in the Giants system (172.1 innings, 3.13 RA9, 167:58 SO:BB) earning All-Star honors in both seasons. A promotion to High-A and move to the bullpen for the 2015 season affected his performance significantly. In 84.2 innings he allowed 60 runs! He did strike out more than one batter per inning (101) but still walked too many (43).

Despite the shaky results at High-A last season, the Red Sox have started Ysla at Double-A. Ysla throws hard, reportedly hitting 97mph this spring, and from his roots as a starter has a slider and changeup that can be effective. In four outings this year, Ysla has posted three scoreless appearances around one rough one in which he allowed all three of the runs he has surrendered this year; two coming on a home run to Colorado Rockies’  prospect David Dahl. Ysla is still doing his strike out thing this year, locking up four Ks in his five innings pitched, but has two walks, which is something he will need to focus on reducing if he is to earn another promotion.

High-A Salem: Nick Longhi (1B)

Nick Longhi, just 20-years old, is considered a tremendous hitter, perhaps one of the best in the Red Sox system, who reportedly possesses great power that has yet to show up in games, but is there. After posting a solid slash line at Low-A in 2015, he started the 2016 season on a tear. In his first three games he had a .417/.462/.500 line, but since then his output has declined considerably. Over his next eight games he has hit a measly .188/.229/.281. His primary issue thus far has been in the strikeout department. Longhi is striking out almost 10 percent more than he did at the lower levels, which is an indication that he is having trouble adjusting to the effectiveness of the pitching at the High-A level. It is still early – he only has 43 PA – so he still has plenty of opportunity to show that he can get back to performing more like he has in the past.

Quick updates on the Big-Three:

Yoan Moncada has a .333/.444/.528 line in his 46 PA, with seven steals (three times caught stealing).

Andrew Benintendi is hitting .326/.396/.651 in his 48 PA, with four doubles and five triples.

Rafael Devers has struggled to a .143/.268/.314 line in his 41 PA, but he has walked more times (6) than he has struck out (5), and is the only one of these three with a home run.

These guys are good.

Low-A Greenville: Roniel Raudes (RHP) and Jake Cosart (RHP)

Roniel Raudes is an exciting player who, at 18-years old, is really young for the Low-A level. However, Raudes does have 18-year old company on the Drive, as Red Sox’s top-pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza is also on the team. Despite being relatively unheralded, it is Raudes who has limited opponents to the greatest extent through two turns of the rotation. In his two starts (10 innings), Raudes has allowed only one run, given up seven hits, walked one and struck out nine. That is an excellent pitching line for this young man. Thus far, he is taking the challenge of the assignment to Low-A in stride. Raudes could be on the verge of a breakout this year, and could see a corresponding jump up the prospect rankings.

Coming out of the bullpen behind Raudes is 22-year old, righty Jake Cosart. Cosart is a converted outfielder and converted starter. In 2015, Cosart struggled as a starting pitcher while with short season Lowell (5.45 RA9, 5.15 FIP in 33.0 innings). Given his ability to throw hard – fastball typically sits in the mid-90s – the Red Sox decided to move him to the bullpen this spring and thus far the results have been better. Ten of the 28 batters he has faced have been retired by way of the strikeout, but he has had control issues, leading to four walks; one in each of his appearances. Cosart has been dominant in three of his four outings. In his three good outings (5.0 innings) he has allowed no runs and allowed only one hit. In the bad one he gave up four hits and two runs in just 1.1 innings. The conversion to life as a reliever is likely still a work in progress for Cosart, but the 3-good-to-1-bad outing ratio is a solid development in the early going.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com