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	<title>Boston &#187; Sean Coyle</title>
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		<title>A Red Sox Rookie of the Year: What Would It Take?</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/23/a-red-sox-rookie-of-the-year-what-would-it-take/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Mar 2016 13:09:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brett Cowett]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL Rookie of the Year]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett's cry for help]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Byron Buxton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deven Marrero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Light]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Devers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Coyle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yoan Moncada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3878</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A miracle. It would take a miracle. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you&#8217;re reading this, you are &#8211; like me &#8211; most likely enamored with the Red Sox&#8217;s farm system at this point. There&#8217;s some game-changing talent in the low minors, and some intriguing prospects in Double- and Triple-A. Good things are coming. Might take two or three years, but the good things will still come, most likely in the form of Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi, and potentially in the form of Rafael Devers and Anderson Espinoza, too. So yeah, the Red Sox system is pretty good. Ask anyone here, and they&#8217;ll have a prospect they&#8217;ll love to gush about.</p>
<p>That being said, the influx of talent from the system that will hit the majors in 2016 looks pretty thin. You&#8217;ve got Brian Johnson, and then you&#8217;ve got&#8230;Pat Light? Deven Marrero? Bryce Brentz? It&#8217;s not pretty. Most look like platoon guys at best and organizational depth at worst. For simplicity&#8217;s sake, we&#8217;re not counting the players who turned into minor league stashes, because most aren&#8217;t prospects in any form anymore, and god forbid Allen Craig ever hits well again.</p>
<blockquote><p>The influx of talent from the Red Sox&#8217;s system that will hit the majors in 2016 looks pretty thin.</p></blockquote>
<p>There won&#8217;t be a ton of rookies on the 2016 Red Sox, much less rookies getting significant time. Nearly all the known names exceeded their rookie limits in 2015. Eduardo Rodriguez, Travis Shaw, Blake Swihart, Matt Barnes and Henry Owens are all technically MLB sophomores. It&#8217;s really a damn shame, because a couple of them would&#8217;ve made the 2016 Rookie of the Year race interesting. Now it&#8217;s seemingly dominated by a bunch of Twins.</p>
<p>With the greenhorns on the Sox supposedly so far behind in the AL Rookie of the Year race, what would it take from a Red Sox rookie to win that award? The short answer is probably &#8220;shut up, you&#8217;re dumb, no one on the Sox is gonna win it&#8221;, and I&#8217;ll agree with the second part, at least. The long answer takes a lot of explaining and seemingly buried prospects breaking out in a big way.</p>
<p>To begin this journey deep into the fringes of the 40-man roster, we&#8217;ve got to establish how high the bar is going to be set so that our imaginary prospect breakouts can surpass it and shock our fantasy baseball world. The frontrunner for Rookie of the Year is most likely Byron Buxton, despite his lackluster spring so far. Miguel Sano lost rookie eligibility last season, and there&#8217;s a quite a bit of space between Buxton and Byung-Ho Park. So let&#8217;s go with PECOTA&#8217;s projection for Buxton in 2016 as our baseline:</p>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="3" cellpadding="3">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center"></td>
<td style="text-align: center">PA</td>
<td style="text-align: center">AVG</td>
<td style="text-align: center">OBP</td>
<td style="text-align: center">SLG</td>
<td style="text-align: center">TAv</td>
<td style="text-align: center">FRAA</td>
<td style="text-align: center">WARP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Buxton</td>
<td style="text-align: center">624</td>
<td style="text-align: center">.255</td>
<td style="text-align: center">.313</td>
<td style="text-align: center">.407</td>
<td style="text-align: center">.255</td>
<td style="text-align: center">CF &#8211; 26</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Wow. That&#8217;s pretty fantastic for a 22-year-old center fielder. That&#8217;s also one hell of a bar to clear. Usually people would throw in the towel at the sight of this, but we&#8217;re not here for towel chucking, no sir. We&#8217;re here to Make Prospects Good Again<sup>tm</sup>.</p>
<p>The first player to attempt to clear this like some sort of twisted version of Ninja Warrior is the rookie of the year frontrunner on the Red Sox, Brian Johnson.</p>
<p><strong>Brian Johnson&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>There are going to be caveats for nearly everyone on this list, but Johnson&#8217;s got the easiest path, even if it does involve setting fire to nearly all of the Red Sox&#8217;s starting depth. With Eduardo Rodriguez injured, Johnson has to recover remarkably quickly from a sprained big toe <em>and</em> usurp the fifth spot in the rotation from both Steven Wright and Roenis Elias, which probably requires an injury of some sort to either of them. Or just those two being terrible simultaneously. Not unlikely, but not nice, either.</p>
<p>Once we get past that, Johnson&#8217;s got a clear shot at making an impact. PECOTA only gives him 42 major league innings of work for a 4.12 ERA, a 4.23 FIP and a measly 0.4 WARP, and extrapolated to 200 innings, that puts him roughly in the 1.6-2.0 WARP range, give or take a tenth. In a vacuum, that&#8217;s not too bad. Going up against Buxton&#8217;s line, however, that&#8217;s plain puny. Buxton has 3.0+ WARP on him and that&#8217;s with an optimistic projection for Johnson.</p>
<p>The issue with Johnson is that his repertoire isn&#8217;t anything to write home about. He&#8217;s a pitcher that relies on control to get batters out, not stuff or overwhelming velocity. So let&#8217;s assume Brian Johnson bucks his current developmental trend and somehow creates that out-pitch that&#8217;s he&#8217;s been lacking in his arsenal. Would that be enough to dethrone Buxton? Sure, if he turns that pitch into the greatest pitch ever conceived. Unless Johnson turns water into wine sometime soon, even the most optimistic projections can&#8217;t raise him to Buxton&#8217;s level.</p>
<p><strong>Deven Marrero&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>If you thought Johnson&#8217;s case for ROY was a stretch, you ain&#8217;t seen nothing yet. Marrero is blocked at shortstop by Xander Bogaerts, and third base by both Pablo Sandoval and Travis Shaw. Say Bogaerts goes down with some sort of serious, but non-career-threatening injury (sorry Ben, forgive me), and Holt can&#8217;t take over at short because Farrell thinks it would put too much strain on him. Enter Marrero.</p>
<p>Again, PECOTA takes into account the lack of playing time Marrero would see, giving him 32 PA with a .241/.300/.347 slash and average defense for a 0.1 WARP. Expand this to 600 PA with the same triple slash and you get 2.0 WARP, and that&#8217;s with those stats staying constant and not falling off a cliff. That&#8217;s not exactly a Buxton clone, if you catch my drift &#8211; the drift being that this is still terrible.</p>
<p>Marrero&#8217;s flat swing makes him a line-drive hitter at best, but there&#8217;s not much power there, so you&#8217;ll see some stuff laced into the gap but not much else. He&#8217;d most likely have to tweak his swing to give him more loft and distance to have any sort of chance to be in the ROY race. Like Johnson, nothing short of walking on water makes Marrero a candidate for this. We can always hope, especially after we see a very slick play in the field, but then Marrero will hit a weak grounder to short for the ninth plate appearance in a row, dashing all of those hopes in an instant.</p>
<p><strong>Pat Light&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>We&#8217;re diving into some pretty insane depths here, so hold on tight.</p>
<p>Pat Light is a reliever who throws fastballs in the high 90s but has some control issues. To be considered for ROY, not only will he have to make the 25-man roster out of camp (he won&#8217;t), he&#8217;ll have to beat out Junichi Tazawa, Carson Smith, Koji Uehara, and Craig Kimbrel to be a closer, the most prominent job a bullpen pitcher can have (again, he won&#8217;t), and then not blow a save &#8211; like ever (yeah, nah, he won&#8217;t). Pat Light is intriguing, but I&#8217;m not twisting even my warped reality to have him win the ROY award.</p>
<p><strong>Sam Travis&#8217; Case</strong></p>
<p>Look, I love Travis. He&#8217;s my bet to be the Red Sox first baseman of the future. But I&#8217;m hesitant to even give him the time of day here. Him just getting to the majors requires a Game of Thrones-level elimination of nearly every corner infielder from Pawtucket to Boston, and even though there&#8217;ll be cheering in the Twitter streets over Allen Craig&#8217;s demise, that&#8217;s a lot of talent on the disabled list.</p>
<p>PECOTA gives Travis 250 PA of .263/.320/.410 and a WARP of 0.4. That&#8217;s not even worth expanding on. At least Marrero got a specific number of PAs and not the standard 250 that minor leaguers get. The Minnesotan center fielder wins again.</p>
<p><strong>Bryce Brentz&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>Even the most optimistic PECOTA projection only gives Brentz 100 PA, and that&#8217;s riding on him hitting .288/.352/.514 in a sample size that small. Brentz has yet to prove he can hit right-handed pitchers. He&#8217;ll be seeing a lot of good ones in the majors.</p>
<p>The only outfielder on this list can&#8217;t even stack up since someone like Brennan Boesch is probably going to be called up before he does (pending recovery). Boy, you can just see Buxton sweat, huh?</p>
<p><strong>Marco Hernandez&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>See, Hernandez is only waiting for news to break that Bogaerts, Holt, and Marrero got their arms mangled in some terrible baseball accident. Then it&#8217;s his time to shine at shortstop, because nothing says &#8220;MLB debut!&#8221; quite like &#8220;Boston shortstop massacre&#8221;.</p>
<p>Hernandez proceeds to hit at a .250/.272/.369 clip. He produces almost as much WARP as Marrero with worse defense and a little bit more pop. Buxton laughs all the way to the award ceremony.</p>
<p><strong>Sean Coyle&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>A healthy Sean Coyle has a little bit of power and speed. That&#8217;s kind of it. You&#8217;d also see Pedroia, Holt, and Josh Rutledge checking into a year-long stay on the DL since this weird fantasy world we&#8217;ve cooked up doesn&#8217;t like infielders much. Long story short: Buxton.</p>
<p><strong>Rafael Devers&#8217; Case</strong></p>
<p>We need to stop. This has gone on long enough.</p>
<p><strong>Yoan Moncada&#8217;s Case</strong></p>
<p>My eyes. They&#8217;re&#8230;they&#8217;re bleeding. I&#8230;I need to go.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OoDMDnOaMQE" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>So the Red Sox don&#8217;t have anything that can really match up to Buxton. I mean, you can argue &#8220;but that&#8217;s why they play the game!&#8221; but let&#8217;s be realistic &#8211; and yes, I understand the silliness of that statement after what I just wrote. Oddly enough, my hypothesis was correct; there&#8217;s very little chance a Red Sox rookie earns the award over Buxton. It&#8217;s fun to think about, but think too hard and you end up looking through High-A Salem rosters at 1 AM wondering who could be the next big thing. Take my advice: don&#8217;t do that.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: The Depth Discussion</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/11/rebuilding-the-red-sox-the-depth-discussion/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/11/11/rebuilding-the-red-sox-the-depth-discussion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2015 14:17:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Collins]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allen Craig]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Workman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bryce Brentz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Vazquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deven Marrero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Escobar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garin Cecchini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Heath Hembree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Henry Owens]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Aro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jorge Marban]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Margot]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Light]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Coyle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Wright]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2828</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Where do the Red Sox appear to have the most MiLB depth heading into 2016? ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As we head into the meat of the offseason, the focus is almost entirely on high-end talent, and for good reason. The main targets for Boston this winter will be an elite, top-of-the-rotation pitcher as well as at least one reliever who can serve as one of the best on the roster. This is a team that is relatively well stocked in terms of secondary players, but they need a few extra stars. The roster already has plenty of infield depth, as Brock Holt and Travis Shaw can cover multiple injuries at multiple positions. There are enough pitchers to fill out a rotation and then some, with some of those backups hopefully heading to the bullpen and others making their way to Pawtucket. The one place in which Boston could use some major-league depth is in the outfield, and unsurprisingly they’ve </span><a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/11/10/source-red-sox-schedule-meeting-with-free-agent-outfielder-chris-young/"><span style="font-weight: 400">already reached out to Chris Young to fill that role</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">When your season is a 162-game grind, having this kind of depth is hugely important. Injuries are going to happen and players are going to underperform for long stretches, giving you needs that you didn’t anticipate in February and March. As such, it’s important to complement your major-league depth with plenty of reinforcements on the farm. We all know about how highly regarded this Boston farm system is, but that’s in terms of overall talent. Do they have the proper depth in the upper levels to help out the big-league squad at any position where a need may pop up?</span></p>
<h4><b>Catcher</b></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We’ll start behind the plate, because that’s usually where people start this kind of thing and I have a crippling inability to think for myself. It’s here where the Red Sox possess an impressive amount of depth that will be the envy of the league barring any sort of trade. Boston wasn’t one of the best teams in the league here last year, but they’ll likely be returning a Blake Swihart/Ryan Hanigan duo that looked much better down the stretch. On top of that, they’ll also have Christian Vazquez back from his Tommy John rehab. The defensive wizard will probably work the rust off in Triple-A, but he’ll be ready whenever an injury occurs and gives the Red Sox maybe the best third catcher in the league. Sandy Leon accepted his assignment to Pawtucket after the season, giving them even more depth behind the plate. This will not be a worry this winter.</span></p>
<h4><b>Infield</b></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As I mentioned before, the Red Sox have two perfect backup infielders in Holt and Shaw, as they can both handle multiple positions and have shown an ability to thrive in an everyday role. However, if/when they need to step into the starting lineup, that will open up empty bench spots. In Pawtucket, they look like they’ll have some middle infield options, but the corner infield could be more iffy. Starting up the middle, Deven Marrero is the obvious guy to look to. He’s a plus defender and came up for the first time in 2015. There’s still plenty to worry about with his bat, but as a third option coming from Triple-A he works just fine. However, Marrero is also a possible trade candidate, which could leave a hole. Luckily, Boston acquired Marco Hernandez as the player to be named later in the Felix Doubront deal a couple years ago, and he looks like a future utility player. While he doesn’t possess the same kind of glove as Marrero, he plays good defense at both second base and shortstop. Hernandez has also showed off solid bat-to-ball skills in the minors and should see some MLB time in 2016.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On the corners, things are a little less certain, as Boston’s depth depends on some reclamation projects. Chief among them in Allen Craig, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster once again. The only way he’ll see the majors again is if he lights the International League on fire over the first month or two of the season. Garin Cecchini never reached the heights of Craig, but he’s also fallen pretty far from his top prospect days, and 2016 could be his last chance to earn a permanent spot on a major-league roster. Finally, Sean Coyle was one of the dark horses to play a role on the 2015 team, but injuries and underperformance in the minors nixed that idea. It doesn’t look likely that any of these players will bounce all the way back in 2016, but there is some hope here that at least one can get back to (or finally reach) a respectable level.</span></p>
<h4><b>Outfield</b></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I alluded to this above, but this is the weakest area on the roster in terms of depth. Their current starting trio is full of youth and potential, but there’s not a lot of that in Pawtucket right now. On Opening Day, the only player who will be ready to step right in from Triple-A appears to be Bryce Brentz. That says about all you need to hear about the situation. Manuel Margot spent a good portion of last year in Double-A and should see Pawtucket at some point in 2016, but he’s not a viable depth option until at least July. That’s if he even stays with the organization. Expect the Red Sox to dip their toes into the minor-league free agent pool to find some extra outfield depth.</span></p>
<h4><b>Rotation</b></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This is the antithesis of the outfield, as Pawtucket’s rotation should be filled with viable rotation depth for the majors. There’s a chance that Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Steven Wright all start the year in that rotation, and they are likely to be three of the top four backup starting pitchers, along with Joe Kelly. You can never have enough starting pitching, of course, and they could look for some more depth to add to this group, but it’s not a dire need at this moment if they add some quality to the top.</span></p>
<h4><b>Bullpen</b></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Like the rotation, the Red Sox should have plenty of relief arms handy in the Pawtucket bullpen. We saw the same pattern in 2015, as there were plenty of options to call upon when a fresh arm was needed. Of course, the issue was that none of those arms were particularly good. They’ll likely be looking at a similar cast of faces in 2016, at least to start the year. Heath Hembree, Jonathan Aro and Edwin Escobar will lead the way, although Pat Light and Jorge Marban should be able to provide some depth as well. Later in the year, Brandon Workman could be back in the mix and guys like Madison Younginer and Williams Jerez could have taken an unexpected step forward. Bullpen depth changes and evolves quickly and often, but as of right now there is some solid depth to pick from in case of injury.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><span style="font-weight: 400">★★★</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Red Sox are going to be focusing on the David Prices of the world this winter, but every year we see the best teams in the league rely on strong depth. Injuries happen to every ball club, and players who start the year in the minors have to play unexpectedly large roles in the middle of the season. Boston appears to be prepared for this scenario at most positions, with corner infield potentially being an issue and the outfield looking particularly shallow. While most of your attention can be paid to the big names, don’t forget about the depth pieces that get brought in to supplement the fringes of the roster.</span></p>
<p><em>Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: 5 Impact Prospects for 2016</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/24/rebuilding-the-red-sox-5-impact-prospects-for-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/24/rebuilding-the-red-sox-5-impact-prospects-for-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Sep 2015 12:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Skillin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deven Marrero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manuel Margot]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Light]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox Prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sam Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Coyle]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2514</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox have pumped a ton of talent to the big leagues in recent years, but there's plenty on the horizon, too. Who can help in 2016?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2015 Red Sox season has hardly been anyone’s idea of fun. A campaign that began with high hopes turned disastrous by mid-June, and after the club stumbled out of the All-Star Break, Boston’s chances of contending effectively ended a week before the trade deadline.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean 2015 has been devoid of progress for the Red Sox. The team’s struggles, while costing Ben Cherington his job, have given numerous young players an opportunity to get their feet wet in the major leagues in a manner that is rare for an ultra-competitive organization like Boston.</p>
<p>Indeed, through all the losing and heartache, a new, young core has emerged. At the age of 22, both Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts are borderline stars already, and the pair looks set to carry the Red Sox offense for years to come. Blake Swihart, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo have shown growth after being handed regular playing time, and all three look likely to become valuable contributors. Travis Shaw, too, <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/24/finding-recent-comparables-for-travis-shaw/">has emerged</a> as someone capable of giving the club production at first base.</p>
<p>In addition, a year after Allen Webster, Rubby de la Rosa and Anthony Ranaudo failed to make the most of their opportunities to earn a rotation spot, Boston has seen two young starters in Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens impress at the MLB level.</p>
<p>While the 2015 campaign has again been a disappointing one, you can’t ignore the contributions the Red Sox have received from their depth down in the minor leagues. Moreover, with a farm system that continues to draw rave reviews, Boston is likely to receive help from more youngsters next season, even if the team’s best prospects are still a couple years away.</p>
<p>So who could earn the call next summer and help the 2016 Red Sox? Here are five prospects to keep an eye on:</p>
<p><strong>Sam Travis</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/07/Travis.jpg"><img class="alignright  wp-image-1837" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/07/Travis.jpg" alt="Sam Travis" width="355" height="183" /></a>While Shaw has staked a claim for extended playing time at first base, Sam Travis could have the better big league career when all is said and done. A second-round pick in 2014, Travis tore up Double-A pitching after receiving a mid-season call-up to Portland. Over 131 games between High- and Double-A, Travis hit .307/.381/.452 with nine home runs and 47 extra-base hits.</p>
<p>Travis isn’t likely to be a perennial All-Star, but if the power develops, he could turn into a steady offensive performer in Boston. He reached base safely in 59 of 65 games for Portland and could earn a chance in the majors next summer if an opportunity presents itself.</p>
<p><strong>Deven Marrero</strong></p>
<p>Yes, Marrero’s already debuted for the Red Sox in 2015, but he’ll be in a better position to help out next year. No one’s questioning the quality of Marrero’s glove, which has drawn rave reviews ever since he entered the system. For that reason, he could prove valuable in a utility role, especially after showing the ability to play elsewhere in the infield this season.</p>
<p>The big uncertainty for Marrero remains just how much he’ll hit at the major league level. After getting his feet wet in Pawtucket in 2014, the 25-year-old batted .256/.316/.344 in 102 games at Triple-A this campaign, which doesn’t inspire much confidence in his offensive potential. You could do worse than Marrero as a homegrown bench piece, though, even if he won&#8217;t hit enough to play every day.</p>
<p><strong>Pat Light</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/09/Light.jpg"><img class="  wp-image-2538 alignright" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/09/Light.jpg" alt="Pat Light" width="355" height="181" /></a>The Red Sox will need some in-house options to step up if they’re going to rebuild what’s been an awful bullpen. After being converted to a reliever earlier this season, Pat Light dominated in Portland before running into some control problems with Pawtucket. Still, Light’s stuff could certainly play in the backend of Boston’s bullpen if he can corral those command issues. His fastball sits in the upper-90s, and he’s gotten great results after going back to the splitter he used in college.</p>
<p>Dombrowski will need to be proactive in improving the club’s stable of relievers this offseason, and the Red Sox will need a lot more than Light to build an adequate bullpen. But of all the players within the organization who might come up and make an impact in 2016, Light is the most likely.</p>
<p><strong>Sean Coyle</strong></p>
<p>If Coyle could ever stay healthy, he’d be a better-known prospect. He’s been in Boston’s system for six seasons now and is still only 23 years old. A 5-foot-8 second baseman (no, he’s not the next Dustin Pedroia), Coyle has hit, and often for power, just about everywhere he goes.</p>
<p>He didn’t impress much in a 39-game stint with Pawtucket this season, batting just .250/.308/.333. Nevertheless, if he can avoid injury, one could see his bat forcing its way into the Red Sox’s plans, especially if Pedroia misses time due to injury yet again next season. At the very least, Coyle could be a useful hitter to call upon off the bench down the stretch a year from now.</p>
<p><strong>Manuel Margot</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/06/Margot.jpg"><img class="alignright  wp-image-1367" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/06/Margot.jpg" alt="Manny Margot" width="355" height="182" /></a>The best Red Sox prospect in the upper minors, Margot is probably the least likely player on this list to reach Boston next summer. He&#8217;s also a prime candidate to be traded this offseason given the team’s crowded outfield picture. If Dave Dombrowski decides to hold onto Margot, however, the young outfielder could be in line for his MLB debut late in 2016.</p>
<p>Margot’s defense in center field is good enough for the majors already, and he’s made great strides at the plate even if the offensive production is a little further behind. He’s also been younger than his competition at every step up the minor league ladder and will turn 21 later this week. Everyone is expecting Boston to roll with an outfield of Betts, Bradley and Castillo next year, but there remains a scenario in which Dombrowski trades one of them and a long-term spot opens up for Margot.</p>
<p><em>All photos by Kelly O&#8217;Connor/<a href="www.sittingstill.smugmug.com">www.sittingstill.smugmug.com</a></em></p>
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		<title>Rebuilding the Red Sox: A Time to Trade Sandoval</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/26/rebuilding-the-red-sox-a-time-to-trade-sandoval/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/26/rebuilding-the-red-sox-a-time-to-trade-sandoval/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Aug 2015 12:15:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jake Devereaux]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rebuilding the Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Shields]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pablo Sandoval]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[San Diego Padres]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Coyle]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2204</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In which Jake argues that the Red Sox probably can't trade Hanley Ramirez, so Pablo Sandoval should go for pitching.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Editor&#8217;s note: Welcome to Rebuilding the Red Sox: a new series here at BP Boston in which our various authors will put forth their personal suggestions as to how the Red Sox should retool their roster for 2016 and beyond. Please keep in mind that each proposed roster move comes from each author individually, and feel free to let your feelings be known in the comments. Enjoy!</em></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">During this debacle of a season one thing has been made abundantly clear to both Red Sox fans and upper management: changes need to be made for 2016.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There have been countless disappointments in 2015, but chief among them have been Boston’s two biggest offseason signings: Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. You know this by now, but Ramirez has proven to be the worst defensive outfielder in baseball (maybe in history), while Sandoval has underwhelmed at third. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With David Ortiz again showing that he is an ageless wonder, moving one of Sandoval or Ramirez to DH next year will be impossible.  One of the two needs to go because the team cannot sustain such poor defenders at two positions again.  We saw the results of this terrible defense manifeste in a team ERA that was ranked 28th in baseball while,</span><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/08/24/the-red-sox-dont-really-need-an-ace/"><span style="font-weight: 400"> as Matt Kory recently pointed out</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, ranking 12th in DRA and 14th in FIP.   Sandoval is the easier of the two players to trade considering age, track record, and, the weakness of this year’s crop of free agent third baseman.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sandoval has just turned 29 years old, and although he has been a nightmare defensively this season (-14.5 DEF, -16.1 UZR) he actually has a history of being a serviceable defender, posting positive marks in four out of his seven previous seasons.  By all accounts his weight and conditioning has been an issue throughout his career with the Giants and their control over him was </span><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/03/25/pablo-sandoval-red-sox-giants-phone-number/70420466/"><span style="font-weight: 400">cited as a reason for his choosing the Red Sox</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.  Well, it turns out Sandoval isn’t one for self-control and the Red Sox found that out the hard way as the hands-off approach the team took early in the year has manifested itself into a less athletic Panda than ever, despite </span><a href="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/07/30/pablo-sandoval-insists-he-hasnt-gained-weight-after-last-season/"><span style="font-weight: 400">his denial it has become a problem</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Still, Sandoval has played better of late and has a track-record of success, and teams are going to be hard-pressed to find upgrades at third in free agency this winter. In fact, this year’s “headliners” are the long-in-the-tooth Juan Uribe, the likely-to-retire Aramis Ramirez and the light-hitting David Freese.  Instead of gambling on Uribe at 36 or Ramirez at 37-years-old, gambling on Pablo having a bounce back looks like a pretty attractive option.  The offensive and defensive track record for Sandoval was strong enough to garner significant interest last offseason, pitting the San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants against each other in a bidding war for his services.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Padres </span><a href="http://sandiego.suntimes.com/san-diego-padres/7/92/27081/padres-offered-sandoval-more-than-100m-in-5-year-contract"><span style="font-weight: 400">reportedly offered Sandoval five years and over $100M</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> to come play in sunny San Diego, but he chose Boston.  The Padres still need him and their plethora of good right-handed pitching is something that the Red Sox desperately need.  Time to start </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Prellermania 2.0</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">, where A.J. and Dave pick up the phones and make this one work.</span></p>
<p><b>The Trade  </b></p>
<p><em><strong>Boston Sends</strong>: Pablo Sandoval, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brian Johnson and Sean Coyle</em></p>
<p><em><strong>San Diego Sends</strong>: James Shields and Craig Kimbrel</em></p>
<p><b>Why the Trade Works for Boston    </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">As I mentioned in the lead, Boston may be able to make one defensive liability work but having two is simply untenable.  The return of Shields and Kimbrel won’t turn the Red Sox into a playoff team right away but it sure gets them on the right track.  Thus far in 2015, the Red Sox have the third worst rotation ERA in baseball at a whopping 4.92.  Their bullpen ERA is slightly less ugly at 4.30, but that’s still “good” enough for fourth worst in the league.  Trading for Shields and Kimbrel would help to address both issues.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While Shields may not be a number one starter anymore, at 33-years-old he still seems to have a lot left in the tank.  His ERA of 3.74 is his worst mark since his terrible season in 2010 but it masks a 3.43 SIERA, which is his best mark of the last three seasons.  Shields is signed for $21M a year for the next three seasons with a team option at $16M for 2019.  His high price makes sending money in the deal unnecessary, and he should provide No. 2/3 starter upside over the course of his deal.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Kimbrel may have taken a slight step back from his normal dominant self this year but that hardly condemns him as ineffective.  Though his walks have risen this year the 27-year-old Kimbrel is still striking out 34.2% of the batters he faces, and since 2011 his K-BB rate of 31.8% trails only Kenley Jansen for the league lead amongst qualified relievers.  He would help solidify a bullpen that, baring health and the realization that Joe Kelly is not a starter, could have a trio of Kelly, Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel for the 7-9</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> innings.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Boston can afford to give up Bradley due to Mookie Betts’ also elite defense and more advanced bat.  As much as I love the idea of a defensive masterpiece of Rusney Castillo, Betts, and Bradley patrolling the outfield, having JBJ at a corner spot will simply not do.  Brian Johnson is a strong prospect who profiles as a very solid 4/5 starter, but the Red Sox can afford to part ways with him to solidify the bullpen and rotation.  The 23-year-old Sean Coyle took a step back in AAA this year but challenged for 20/20 in 2014 at AA while batting .295. The presence of Dustin Pedroia in the majors and Yoan Moncada in the minors make it dubious at best that he’ll find a role in Boston. </span></p>
<p><b>Why the Trade Works for San Diego</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s clear now that the Padres’ one off-season turnaround plan has failed miserably, and perhaps the biggest reason for that was the gross miscalculation that Matt Kemp was a serviceable right fielder and Wil Myers was a real center fielder.  The duo have so far posted UZRs of -11.9 and -9.7, respectively. These represent the worst and second worst marks on the team for players with over 200 innings and it has tormented their pitching staff all year.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Bradley Jr.’s arrival and the probably impending free-agent exit of Justin Upton will do wonders to cure this ailment.  In 2014, when JBJ was given most of the year to hold down the starting center field job for the Sox, he had a 15.9 UZR and 17.3 defensive rating, making him on a game-by-game basis the best defensive center fielder in the league.  His arrival will allow Myers to shift to right field where he belongs and allow the Padres to hide Kemp’s deficiencies in left field.  JBJ’s ability to cover ground in the spacious outfield of Petco Park will cover up countless mistakes and turn this into a darn good outfield. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Pablo Sandoval will arrive to man third base and I bet that he will have a chip on his shoulder for two reasons: being jettisoned by the Red Sox and competing in the same division as his old ball club.  If Preller can get him on an intense conditioning routine, he could provide a valuable offensive upgrade at third and solidify a huge weakness.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Johnson fits so well with the club mostly because the Padres have been trotting out a rotation of James Shields, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, and Colin Rea, all right-handers.  If you look the DL and to the minor leagues there are no left-handed starters on the horizon unless you count 30-year-old and twice tommy john survivor Corey Luebke.  I don’t count him and they shouldn’t count on him either. Left-handed starters have been </span><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/the-quest-to-gain-platoon-advantage-takes-a-left-turn-part-ii/"><span style="font-weight: 400">increasingly effective </span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">over the last few seasons and the young cost controlled Johnson will spend most of his prime under team control.   Johnson isn’t an ace but his pitchability is off the charts.  His ability to display above average command and hit his spots should only play up in the spacious ballpark and refined outfield defense.       </span><b>   </b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The money situation favors the Padres here as well, since Kimbrel and Shields combine for $28M in 2016, $30M in 2017, and $31M in 2018.  It’s only when 2019 rolls around that San Diego will have to pay Sandoval $18M and Kimbrel and Shields may be off the books.  This represents a three-year savings of $37M, which can be either banked or used elsewhere to improve the club.  With the Padres aggressively shopping Jedd Gyorko, the severely blocked Sean Coyle could be a capable fill in as a long term solution is sorted out, too.  </span></p>
<p><b>Bottom Line</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The deal helps the Red Sox and the Padres on many fronts and in different ways.  The Red Sox solidify their rotation and their bullpen, their biggest sources of ire, while getting rid of a subpar defender at third base.  This opens up either third base or first base for Hanley Ramirez, the former of which he has played before.  It should be noted that Ramirez was seen taking grounders at first base today and </span><a href="http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/893/hanley-ramirez"><span style="font-weight: 400">confirmed the switch</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> would happen later this year as they prepare to place him there full time in 2016. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There are plenty of internal options for fill-ins at third as well with Brock Holt, Travis Shaw and Garin Cecchini all coming to mind.  It may not be pretty, but after this year isn’t anything better?  The likeliest long-term solution at the position is the super-athletic Yoan Moncada who, after a rough start, is dominating in in Single-A Greenville.  It’s not farfetched to imagine a 2017 Red Sox team with Moncada at third and Ramirez taking over at DH for the retired David Ortiz should first base not work out.  This move sets the Sox on a path closer to contention for a problem that may not have a solution in just one off-season.    </span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">The Padres’ pitching depth and farther-off window to compete make trading the 33-year-old Shields a no brainer, and the luxury of an expensive closer in Kimbrel is one that a club without  playoff aspirations doesn’t need.  The in-house option of Brandon Mauer looks like a very good choice for a future closer.  </span></strong></p>
<p><em>Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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