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	<title>Boston &#187; Simon Mercedes</title>
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	<description>Bringing BP-quality analysis to Boston</description>
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		<title>Fenway’s Future: Jackie Bradley Jr., Mauricio Dubon and More</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/22/fenways-future-jackie-bradley-jr-mauricio-dubon-and-more/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/07/22/fenways-future-jackie-bradley-jr-mauricio-dubon-and-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2015 11:16:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brett Cowett]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fenway's Future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mauricio Dubon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nick Longhi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Light]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simon Mercedes]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1777</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Covering Jackie Bradley Jr.'s dominance, Pat Light's struggles, Mauricio Dubon's emergence and more. ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week, we’ll look at an outfielder who&#8217;s terrifying pitching in Triple-A, a shortstop with the speed and quickness that people love in their middle infielders and a teenager who can play three positions while tearing the cover off the ball.</p>
<p><strong>Triple-A Pawtucket: </strong><em>Jackie Bradley Jr., OF and Pat Light, RHP</em></p>
<p>JBJ has set fire to the entire International League lately. In July alone, the 25-year-old outfielder has registered a .914 OPS, with five home runs and a 5/5 K/BB ratio in just 60 PA. Bradley has rediscovered his power stroke in Pawtucket this year, and he&#8217;s markedly improved against left-handed pitching, posting a .282/.337/.447 slash line against southpaws. He&#8217;s hitting more for contact than he used to, as both his walk and strikeout rates have dropped noticeably. Not too bad for a guy who has changed his batting stance roughly 4,000 times within the last calendar year.</p>
<p>What JBJ needed more than anything was reps in the field. Boston&#8217;s outfield doesn&#8217;t have an obvious spot open for him, and while one might open up after the trade deadline, the Red Sox were content to let Bradley get some games in Triple-A. It&#8217;s not the most ideal situation, but Bradley was not ready in 2014, and the Red Sox need to make sure he will be the next time he comes to the big leagues for an extended stay.</p>
<p>Pat Light&#8217;s 2015 has been a year of transition. This season was the first in which Light would pitch out of the bullpen, after starting for most of his professional career with mixed results. Light has cut his losses when it comes to his repertoire: he&#8217;s stopped using his changeup, put his slider away, and focused mainly on a fastball-splitter combo. The mid-90s fastball is very good, especially in the bottom of the zone, and the splitter can fall right off the table to generate embarrassing whiffs. His issue is command. Light can throw it hard and down, but his control isn&#8217;t there all the time, and that usually results in flat, unremarkable stuff in the top of the zone. He&#8217;s had a rough go of it in Pawtucket so far (7.43 ERA, 11/12 K/BB in 13.1 IP), but the stuff is there. If he can add some control and a little command, Light could soon be a fixture in Boston&#8217;s bullpen.</p>
<p><strong>Double-A Portland:</strong> <em>Simon Mercedes, RHP</em></p>
<p>Mercedes, like Light, is probably best suited to a bullpen role where he can simplify his offerings. He was pretty unremarkable while starting in the low minors,  and switched between the bullpen and the rotation every so often. He&#8217;s got a good fastball that reportedly can hit 100 mph, but he&#8217;ll lose velocity the longer he works into games. Mercedes debuted a solid slider last year to go along with a curveball that ranged from &#8220;above average&#8221; to &#8220;inconsistent&#8221; according to scouts, and a changeup that can move like a splitter, but one can only guess when and where that&#8217;ll happen. Remember what Winston Churchill <a href="http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/31000.html" target="_blank">said about Russia</a>? That&#8217;s pretty much Simon Mercedes. You don&#8217;t know what you&#8217;re getting &#8211; you just know you&#8217;ll get something.</p>
<p><strong>High-A Salem:</strong> <em>Jordan Betts, 3B and Mauricio Dubon, SS</em></p>
<p>As much as you want to hope he&#8217;s related, Betts is not in any way connected to Mookie, neither in family and baseball skills. Salem&#8217;s Betts is a free-swinger, and despite a powerful showing at Lowell last year, he&#8217;s found it hard to adjust to High-A ball. In 269 PA, Betts has registered a .229 TAv, and his 91/25 K/BB doesn&#8217;t inspire confidence. He&#8217;s got a lot of power &#8211; at least that much is certain &#8211; but his bat speed is so slow that he&#8217;ll have trouble with good fastballs if he&#8217;s not expecting them. Betts isn&#8217;t much of a guy to jump on breaking pitches either, as it&#8217;s hard for him to pick up spin. He carved out a pretty good college career at Duke, where he put up a .919 OPS in his senior year, but he&#8217;s yet to show any of that raw power in Salem. Pitch recognition is a must-have for him if he sees himself moving up in the minors.</p>
<p>Dubon, who just turned 21 on the 19th, continues to show promise as he moves through the minors. In Greenville, he slashed .301/.354/.428, hitting for contact and using his good speed to wreak havoc on the bases. While that&#8217;s yet to translate so far in Salem, he hasn&#8217;t even reached 100 PA yet, and he&#8217;s got the skills to get it back to that level. When hitting, he&#8217;s got solid hands and compliments those with good hand-eye coordination that allows him to make a lot of contact. Power won&#8217;t be a strength of his at all, which isn&#8217;t necessarily a bad thing, but he tends to try and make contact on pitches he shouldn&#8217;t, a la Pablo Sandoval.</p>
<p>In the field, he&#8217;s becoming something of a wizard. He&#8217;s confident, has good arm strength, and can range to both his left and right with relative ease. His footwork has improved greatly,  and his athleticism can aid him when making tough plays. With both the bat and the glove being solid, Dubon has some utility infielder potential here.</p>
<p><strong>Low-A Greenville:</strong><em> Nick Longhi, 1B/OF </em></p>
<p>It&#8217;s not often that you see a 19-year-old with a great feel for hitting, but Longhi is one of those guys. It seems like he makes hard contact all the time, and he can hit it to all fields. He&#8217;s got some power now, but he&#8217;ll grow into more as he fills out his frame and matures. Projecting his power can be tough, as it&#8217;ll be good if he sticks in a corner outfielder role, but it&#8217;ll be merely average if he&#8217;s moved to first base. His arm will work anywhere, even in right field; pitching in high school gave him increased arm strength. Longhi has the stuff you want to see in prospects, and he&#8217;s only a teenager. He can hit, throw and field all at acceptable levels, and they&#8217;ll all improve as he gets older.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Photos</em></p>
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		<title>Fenway&#8217;s Future: Cecchini, Marrero, Stanky and More</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/14/fenways-future-cecchini-marrero-stanky-and-more/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/05/14/fenways-future-cecchini-marrero-stanky-and-more/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 May 2015 10:40:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris Teeter]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fenway's Future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deven Marrero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garin Cecchini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greenville]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Chavis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pawtucket]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Salem]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simon Mercedes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teddy Stankiewicz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ty Buttrey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=860</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Checking in on two of Boston's prospects who are closest to the majors, as well as a bevy of guys in the low minors.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="western">This week we&#8217;ll take a look at two players at the uppermost level of the Red Sox system who are blocked by major league players, and might be best used as trade pieces. Then we&#8217;ll check in on pitching potential at the lower levels.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Triple-A Pawtucket: </b><i>Garin Cecchini, 3B and Deven Marrero, 2B</i></p>
<p class="western">At the end of the 2014 season, Cecchini got a brief stint in the majors, appearing in 11 games. There was at least some discussion this offseason that Cecchini could be the starting third baseman for the 2015 season. Then the Red Sox signed Pablo Sandoval to a five-year contract in November, blocking Cecchini&#8217;s advancement to the major leagues within the Red Sox organization. This season at Pawtucket, Cecchini has only played in 22 of the team&#8217;s 32 games, a result of a shoulder injury that landed him on the disabled list. Generally, Cecchini has not performed very well. In 92 plate appearances he has a .171 TAv. A real issue is that he is striking out a lot, 28 times so far this year, and only has three walks.</p>
<p class="western">One potentially positive development is that Cecchini has moved around the diamond more this season, including accumulating some experience in the outfield. He has played nine games at third base, three games at first base, and nine games in left field. This is certainly a test of Cecchini&#8217;s versatility, and for a team that is already flush with outfielders this seems like an effort to show potential trade partners what Cecchini can do in the outfield. It is also possible the Red Sox are grooming Cecchini for a role as a bench player. Regardless of where he is playing defensively, Cecchini&#8217;s hitting numbers are going to need to dramatically improve for him to get another chance in the majors, as he&#8217;s always been viewed as a bat-first player.</p>
<div style="width: 238px" class="wp-caption alignright"><a title="" href="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST-March-3-2015/i-Sb2sv5W/A"><img class="" src="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST-March-3-2015/i-Sb2sv5W/0/M/20150303_0482-M.jpg" alt="" width="228" height="285" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Deven Marrero.</p></div>
<p class="western">Marrero is in a similar developmental place as Cecchini. He is one of the top Red Sox prospects, ranked <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-boston-red-sox-top-10-prospects/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline">9</span></span></span><span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><sup>th</sup></span></span></span><span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"> by Baseball America</span></span></span></a>, and considered a <span style="color: #000080"><span lang="zxx"><span style="text-decoration: underline"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25119" target="_blank">strong candidate to impact the major league team</a></span></span></span> by the Baseball Prospectus team. Unfortunately, he is blocked by Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, and Dustin Pedroia at second base. He is projected as a plus defender, but there are plenty of questions surrounding his bat. This season at Pawtucket, however, he is hitting well: .281 TAv, 8.6% walk rate, and nine extra base hits in 105 PAs. These marks are all better than they were last season, when he had a .190 Tav, 5.9% walk rate, and 12 extra base hits in 202 PAs. This improvement at the level is nice to see and if he keeps hitting like he is so far this season, he could be a really intriguing player for a team that is looking to acquire middle infield help.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Double-A Portland: </b><i>Simon Mercedes, RHP</i></p>
<p class="western">Mercedes was used as a starting pitcher while at High-A Salem last year, but this year at Portland has only been used as a relief pitcher. Things have not been going smoothly thus far. In seven appearances (20.1 innings pitched) he has allowed 11 runs, nearly equaled his hits allowed (11) and walk (8) totals, and only struck out 14 batters. I say <i>only</i> 14 batters because on a rate basis, his current rate is lower than the rate he posted in Salem last season by a little over three percent. The advancement in levels likely accounts for much of that decrease but I would expect that his moving to a relief role would increase the strikeout totals. Though he has served as a reliever, Mercedes has been used in extended outings, typically 2-3 innings, so it is not necessarily the case that he can just come in for an inning and let his fastball burn. With that said, if he is going to end up with a role in the major leagues he will needs to start showing swing-and-miss stuff. His 4.00 FIP suggests that he has pitched better than his 4.43 ERA, but the 4.00 FIP still leaves something to be desired. It is still early days, so the 23-year old Mercedes certainly has time to get things on track.</p>
<p class="western"><b>High-A Salem: </b><i>Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, and Ty Buttrey, RHP</i></p>
<p class="western">Thus far, Stankiewicz has shown that his promotion to High-A was justified. In six starts he has a 3.86 ERA and 2.98 FIP, has struck out 19 batters, and only walked seven, which is a fine ratio. His rates (14.0 K%, 5.2 BB%) could use some improvement, but still look promising. He has yet to allow a home run this season, and has only given up eight extra-base hits. Stankiewicz is only 21-years old, so he is still slightly young for the level, or at least on an appropriate developmental track.</p>
<div style="width: 265px" class="wp-caption alignright"><a title="" href="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST-March-23-2015/i-Ht2WJFW/A"><img class="" src="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com/Spring-Training/Red-Sox-ST-March-23-2015/i-Ht2WJFW/0/M/20150323_0797-M.jpg" alt="" width="255" height="255" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Stanky refuses to allow homers.</p></div>
<p class="western">Stankiewicz&#8217;s new teammate, Buttrey, made the jump from Low-A Greenville to Salem after making just four starts this season. But those four starts were excellent. In 22.0 innings pitched he posted a 2.45 ERA, 3.24 FIP, struck out a batter per inning, and only walked three. Since joining the Greenville squad Buttrey has made two starts: a rough debut (5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 6 BB, 3 SO) and a solid second outing (7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 6 SO). All told he is currently sitting with a 2.25 ERA and 3.32 FIP, which looks pretty nice. Buttrey is eight months older than Stankiewicz, and so is again on a reasonable developmental track. If he can consistently look like the pitcher in his second outing for Salem, he could move up another level later this season.</p>
<p class="western"><b>Low-A Greenville: </b><i>Michael Chavis, 3B</i></p>
<p class="western">Michael Chavis is 19 years old and his performance thus far shows some of the struggles that can be expected from players his age. In 99 PAs Chavis has a .207 TAv, and is striking out a third of the time. These marks place him well below league average as an offensive contributor (77 wRC+). Half of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases (six doubles, three homers) which seems promising, except for his only having 18 hits which sort of limits the excitement. Chavis will have time to develop at this level and, as noted in his scouting report at <a href="http://soxprospects.com/players/chavis-michael.htm" target="_blank">SoxProspects.com</a>, may see his position change to second base or the outfield.</p>
<p class="western"><em>Photos by Kelly O’Connor, <a class="twitter-timeline-link" title="http://sittingstill.smugmug.com" href="http://t.co/Bk3sp1xfaf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span class="js-display-url">sittingstill.smugmug.com</span></a></em></p>
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