I’m going by the rotations as listed on Roster Resource, which of course may change during spring training. As for the order, I’ve organized them by their WARP projections.

Rotations

Red Sox:

1. Chris Sale (6.1)
2. David Price (2.1)
3. Drew Pomeranz (2.1)
4. Rick Porcello (1.2)
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (1.2)

(12.7 total WARP)

versus

Yankees:

1. Luis Severino (4.1)
2. Sonny Gray (2.5)
3. Masahiro Tanaka (2.4)
4. Jordan Montgomery (1.0)
5. CC Sabathia (0.6)

(10.6 total WARP)

Not unlike the two team’s lineups, their rotations aren’t too far apart in overall talent. Perhaps the Red Sox enjoy a bit more at the top of the rotation, whereas the Yankees have more overall depth. But the end result is roughly the same, as you can see from their respective WARP totals.

Is Luis Severino as good as Chris Sale? No, probably not, but he’s not wholly far off. Sale is the best player of either group and the one who the Red Sox hope can put them over the top, both during the regular season and in the playoffs. Severino has the potential to be that guy for the Yankees. Still, the advantage is with Sale.

The thing about PECOTA and really all projection systems is its innate pessimism. It’s not really even pessimism though because players get hurt all the time and age gets everyone at some point and then there’s the guys who just have bad seasons because of who knows what. That all said, it’s not difficult to expect more than PECOTA projects from a few guys on each team, and not coincidentally the two I’d expect more from are the same guys I’d point to when discussing the most pivotal pitchers of the rotation. That would be Price for the Red Sox and Gray for the Yankees. Both have been top pitchers before, as recently as 2016. In Gray’s four seasons he’s been above 4 WARP in three of them including last season, so his 2.5 projection seems a tad short. But there it is just the same.

Price likely has a similar issue to Gray, namely injuries. Price spent a significant number of days on the DL last season, the first time he did that in his career. The result was a one-win season after averaging six wins per over the three seasons before that. Still, the Red Sox are depending on Price this season in a way that I’m not sure fans have fully grasped. If Price gives the team 75 innings of 4.50 run ball and then exits stage left, the Red Sox are going to need a lot of quality innings from Steven Wright and/or Brian Johnson. To paraphrase the words of a former Yankee manager, that’s not what you want.

But if Price is healthy, he’s Boston’s second ace, and he changes the completion of the team completely. The same thing could be said for Gray, whose reputation took a hit during an injured and ineffective 2016 season. Peak Gray probably isn’t the equal of peak Price, though it seems that Gray reaching his previous heights is the more likely possibility of the two (though as of this writing both claim to be fully healthy).

Past the top two guys, the Yankees need Tanaka’s arm to remain attached to his shoulder, possibly a difficult ask considering his previous medical history. If he’s healthy though, a caveat that should probably be applied to all pitchers, Tanaka offers what any team would look for in a third starter: namely quality and dependability. The Red Sox are more on the first of those attributes and less on the second with their third starters (yes, two) in Pomeranz and Porcello. Porcello can’t be as bad as he was last season (can he?), but he’s probably not going to win another Cy Young either. As such, sure, two wins seems perfectly adequate, even if you maybe would hope for more given his $20 million salary. Pomeranz is hitting his stride as a starter after a late start to his career, but he’s always been on the fragile side. Together they’re probably in the five-win range, which is what the Yankees will likely get out of the combination of Gray and Tanaka.

The back end of the Yankees rotation is C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, both of who had stronger seasons in 2017 than you’d have guessed given their respective ages and, in Sabathia’s case, everything else about him. And yet here he is again. Note that PECOTA is as unimpressed with him as you are. The Red Sox back end features the aforementioned Wright and Johnson unless, and this is the key, Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy. Say what you will about Montgomery, but the Yankees don’t have a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality in the back half of their rotation. If Rodriguez comes back healthy with no knee troubles, he gives the Sox rotation depth few teams can match.

If there is one place where New York has a step on Boston, it’s in previous injuries. Why are they important? A wise person once said the greatest predictor of future pitcher injuries is past pitcher injuries. With that as a background, the Red Sox are at greater risk with Price, Rodriguez, and deeper down, Wright and Johnson all having missed significant time in recent seasons. Only Gray fits that description with the Yankees (though Sabathia has pitched through injuries, he’s not particularly injury prone).

Bullpens

Predicting what will happen with bullpens is the greatest of impossibilities, like jumping across the country using only trampolines, or drinking an entire bottle of Gatorade without your tongue jumping from your mouth and running screaming down the street. The Red Sox have one of the two or three best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. That’s a good start. After that, they could have a very deep pen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg splitting eighth inning duties and Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly covering the sixth and seventh. Or all those guys could spontaneously explode like Spinal Tap drummers.

Like the rotations, the Red Sox have that one top guy, but the Yankees have quality and more depth in their pen. And yet, Aroldis Chapman wasn’t so hot last season, and Dellin Betances wasn’t either. Both were fine overall, and very good at times, but showed real moments of shakiness. Tommy Kahnle was less than spectacular after putting up an amazing first half in Chicago, and David Robertson was good, but not amazing either. Still, those guys have track records of (mostly) excellence, so few are likely to flame out. It could easily turn into the Craig Kimbrel And That’s It Show in Boston, whereas the Yankees have too much depth and not enough Craig Kimbrel for that to occur to them.

Where things stand now, the Red Sox have a slight advantage in the rotation, but when you factor in the bullpens, that lead dwindles. Like their offenses, and like the teams of 2003 and 2004, picking which one is truly better is likely a fool’s errand (thus these articles). We never know what will happen over the course of a baseball season, but often times we kinda know, right? Here I legitimately have no idea. Except to say this: even after 162 games it’ll probably be quite close.

Also, the Houston Astros are better than both teams.

Photo by Noah K. Murray — USA TODAY Sports

It seems likely, though, that the Red Sox will look to acquire a pitcher who can start for them on opening day. That may be through free agency, but given ownership’s reticence to pass out $150 million to Jon Lester last off-season, it’s difficult, even with a new front office in place, to see them reversing course and offering David Price $200 million.

They might do it anyway, but the more likely option is through a trade. There are three primary reasons for that. The first is age. The Red Sox can get a younger starter in trade than they can acquire on the free-agent market. The second is salary. The Red Sox will have to pay Price $30 million a year or some such figure while Sonny Gray, to pull a name from a hat, will make the league minimum. The third is the Red Sox minor league system, which is chock full of talent, so it makes sense to use some of that talent to upgrade the major league roster more quickly and efficiently (i.e. pack more talent into one roster spot) than the system could do on its own.

Who might the team look to acquire? Well, that’s the question, isn’t it. That will depend on who teams make available, but the Red Sox have quite the minor league system. If they’re willing to make most if not all of those players available, many options will be on the table. Here are six of the most intriguing pitchers the Red Sox could acquire through a trade this off-season to head their rotation:

Corey Kluber

Kluber is the reigning AL Cy Young winner and though he won’t repeat this season, he’s still had a fantastic year despite a mostly luck-dependent bad start. Kluber has been worth just over five wins this season by DRA-based WARP, which puts him behind Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray, and ahead of every other pitcher in baseball. He’s fantastic. So why would the Indians look to trade a cost-controlled (he has four years and $35.5 million left on his extension after this season) 29-year-old ace pitcher? Two reasons they might: their farm system is lousy and their major league roster is lousy, too.

It’s unclear what Cleveland’s plan is, but it seems unlikely they’ll be expected to contend in a packed AL Central in 2016 or even 2017. That doesn’t necessitate dealing Kluber, of course. He’s signed through 2021 if all his options are exercised, but doing so could speed up the rebuilding process considerably. Dealing Kluber would ignite a bidding war that could help build the next great Indians team, a bidding war the Red Sox could potentially win with the strength and depth of their farm system. This isn’t the most likely outcome, but then no one guy is likely. Kluber would be a great addition (obviously) and his salary would allow the Red Sox to supplement the rotation though free agency as well if they so desired.

Carlos Carrasco

This is the other possibility from Cleveland. Rumor has it the Indians already shopped Carrasco at the trade deadline, but he’s now on the DL with a shoulder issue, which makes a deal difficult until he can get back on the mound again. Still, Carrasco is quite good when he’s healthy. After struggling for years after joining the Indians from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade, the light finally came on for Carrasco last season. His strikeouts jumped from below average to well above and he cut his walks allowed in half. Then he proved he’s not a flash in the pan by repeating it this season. Like Kluber, Carrasco is on an inexpensive (relatively) contract that will pay him $14.5 million over the next two seasons with $9 million and $9.5 million option years in 2019 and 2020, respectively. On a per-inning basis Carrasco is similar to Kluber. The difference is Carrasco has thrown 292 innings over the last two seasons and is now on the DL while Kluber has thrown 430 and is still healthy and going.

Jacob deGrom/Matt Harvey

This would make a whole lot more sense if the Mets weren’t about to win the NL East, which apparently they are. Even so, the Mets have as much young pitching as any team does but don’t have much in the way of the young hitting. A deal for one of these pitchers would likely require someone currently able to play at the major league level, so while you might consider Rafael Devers, etc, etc, etc, for Kluber, a deal for deGrom or Harvey would start with a guy like Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts (I refuse to get into specific packages here or who would have to throw in extra players). deGrom is already 27 and hasn’t been as good as Carrasco or Kluber, while Harvey is a year younger and has managed to almost replicate his incredible six win 2014 season this year with one exception: home runs have been more of an issue. Also, Harvey is coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Sonny Gray

The constant struggle the Oakland A’s face is how to keep the team competitive while constantly rebuilding all on a slim payroll. Thus, good players put in their time building their trade value in Oakland and then are dealt for, Josh Donaldson aside, younger cheaper, players. Although not the strikeout threat that any of the above starters presents, Sonny Gray is younger (he’ll be 26 next year) and is as fantastic. He’s a ground ball guy so he could presumably get by in Fenway just fine without striking out the larger number of hitters that the above pitchers do.

As to why the A’s would deal Gray even though he’s still silly cheap and is one of the better pitchers in baseball? Well, they dealt Josh Donaldson! But seriously, they may not. I’m guessing it would depend on the nature of the package coming back and the state of the A’s going forward. Oakland would likely want a combination of major league talent and minor league talent in return. Who knows if he’ll move, but given the A’s struggles this season it wouldn’t be a surprise to hear his name batted around at the GM meetings.

Stephen Strasburg

There are others besides the guys listed above. Chris Sale and Tyson Ross for example, but no pitcher in baseball combines the raw stuff with results while retaining upside like Stephen Strasburg. What’s more, if the Nationals continue their crash and burn season, even though Strasburg has turned things around, the Nationals might look to make some deals and shake up the clubhouse.

What’s more more, Strasburg is about to get expensive. He’s making $7.4 million in his second year of arbitration this season and will be a free agent after next season. He’s a Scott Boras client so an extension, especially this close to free agency, is unlikely. As such, he’d be a one-year addition for Boston which would limit their risk and and limit the cost. It’s still Strasburg so the cost would likely be high, but less than any of the above guys due to the number of seasons of player control remaining.

Should be a fun off-season, huh?

Photo by Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

With meaningful games out of the question and a quiet trade deadline over, the biggest Red Sox story of the weekend was the news that Larry Lucchino is stepping down as team president at the end of the season. The news wasn’t much of a surprise given the rumors during spring training, but it’s certainly significant. Lucchino was part of John Henry’s original group that purchased the team in 2002, and played an integral role in the three World Series championships since. He’s had a say in a number of roster moves that were made in that time. He was also the driving force in the many renovations made throughout Fenway Park. However, as Lucchino mentioned in his statement Sunday, it was time for a change. The Sox are on their way to a last-place finish for the third time in the last four years and reports suggest Lucchino had been less involved in the organization. Lucchino will be succeeded by Sam Kennedy, who, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, will be more invested in the business side of the organization and less involved in baseball operations.The Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman writes that this move is just the beginning of a slew of changes that could take place between now and Opening Day. Two changes Silverman doesn’t expect to be made are at manager and general manager, despite the notable failures of both John Farrell and Ben Cherington over the last two seasons.

The biggest shakeup that should take place for the Red Sox this offseason is in the starting rotation. Their pitching struggles are no secret to anyone who follows baseball. Boston owns the fourth-worst team ERA in baseball at 4.52 and only a marginally better team DRA at 4.12. The Sox should feel lucky it’s not worse given the disasters that Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly and Justin Masterson have represented this season. The most obvious issue is the Red Sox’s lack of a true ace (or respectable No. 1 starter for that matter). With that in mind, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tried to determine where the Sox can find that coveted ace. Possible trade targets MacPherson suggested were Carlos Carrasco, Jacob DeGrom and Sonny Gray. All three starters are still young and in many ways up-and-coming, but all three are also putting up ace-quality numbers, ranking in the top 15 in FIP. DeGrom and Gray are both in the top 10 in baseball in DRA. Acquiring any of those three seems like a longshot, but nonetheless any of those moves would requiring parting ways with top-tier prospects. The Sox could also pursue free agents to-be such as Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jeff Samardzija and Jordan Zimmermann. But if the Jon Lester negotiations taught us anything it’s that we shouldn’t expect them to spend top-dollar and award long-term deals to proven No. 1’s.

Quick Hits

Watching a last-place team isn’t fun. Yet for some reason we do it anyways. Owning the worst record in the American League does have its benefits, however. As Alex Speier of The Boston Globe points out, that distinction would give the Sox first dibs at claiming players off waivers. That could put Boston in position to make a push for that quality starter it desperately needs.

If you were hoping Hanley Ramirez would never play left field again after this season, you may be disappointed once you read this. Despite ranking statistically as the worst left fielder in baseball, Ramirez told MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he wants to play there again next season, especially over any spot in the infield. Ramirez explained that he’s been healthier this season as a left fielder than he had been over the past few years as a shortstop, giving him more reason to take his lumps in left for another year.

The trade deadline was far from eventful for the Red Sox. They did, however, acquire reliever Ryan Cook from Oakland. Sox fans may not care much for the deal, but Cook told the Boston media he’s excited to join the team. Whether or not Cook earns a spot in the Sox’s 2016 bullpen could hinge on how he performs down the stretch. The righty’s 10.38 ERA in four major league appearances this season is discouraging, but he does have a history of success, posting a 2.89 FIP in 73.1 innings in 2012 and a 2.74 FIP over 67.1 frames in 2013.

Now for some injury news. Rick Porcello is heading to the disabled list for the first time in his career with what is being called a right triceps strain. In a perfect world, the Sox won’t see him pitch for the rest of the season. Joining Porcello on the DL is Brian Johnson, who is dealing with elbow tightness. Mookie Betts, on the other hand, is making progress. Betts, who was diagnosed with a concussion after toppling over the right-field wall and into the Red Sox bullpen last week, is expected to join the team in Detroit this weekend.

Three Good Game Stories

Wade Miley was strong on Sunday, as CSNNE.com’s Jimmy Toscano writes, even if it wasn’t enough to earn a win over the Rays.

Travis Shaw hit his first two major league home runs and scored five times in the Sox’s win on Saturday. WEEI.com’s Ryan Hannable explains how Shaw’s modest demeanor after the game comes from having seen his father, Jeff, play in the majors as well.

Many were surprised to see Mike Napoli still in Boston after Friday’s trade deadline passed. But, as the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes, Napoli led the Sox to a comeback win over the Rays that night.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images