The defense is an issue because, perhaps more so than any recent season, because this version of the Red Sox was built to win through run prevention. Run prevention is often just thought of as starting pitching, and yes, while the Red Sox have some marquee names in their rotation, run prevention is also catching the ball, throwing to the right base, etc., and the Red Sox came into the season with a bunch of guys who do that well. But they aren’t doing it well. As a simple measure of this: by runs allowed per game the Red Sox have been a little bit better than a league average team. However, look at fielding independent pitching (FIP), which attempts to remove defenders from evaluating pitching performance, and you find that the Red Sox pitchers have been the third best group in the game. The difference between these two things (runs allowed and FIP) is not entirely attributable to good/bad defense, but some portion of it is and it looks like the Red Sox defenders have been failing their pitchers. The position players combining not scoring many runs with not catching the ball suggests they owe the pitchers a round-or-two of rye at the next team dinner.

Bar tabs aside, what is going on? Well, probably a number of things. First, have a look at this rather ominous table:

As you can see, in the playoff seasons (2013 and 2016) the Red Sox turned batted balls into outs at a much higher rate (defensive efficiency [DE] and park-adjusted defensive efficiency [PADE]) than in the division-cellar seasons (2014 and 2015). The bad news is that through Tuesday’s games the 2017 defensive efficiency numbers line up with those forgettable seasons a little too closely. Fortunately, thus far despite the wonky defense the 2017 runs-allowed average relative to the league is in line with the better seasons; this is made possible because the pitchers have struck out more than a quarter of the batters they have faced. Getting back to the defensive efficiency numbers, the difference between the 2016 and 2017 teams is striking given that the 2017 team is pretty much the 2016 team with expected improved defense in left field and at first base. Below is a year-to-year comparison for fielding runs above average:

Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are on track for better defensive seasons relative to last year, but everyone else has been playing at a level that is about the same or considerably worse. Mitch Moreland is playing much worse than he did last year in his Gold Glove season at first base, but the good news is that he is still on track to be better than Hanley Ramirez (-10.4 FRAA in 1145.0 innings last year). The dropoff for Mookie is stunning, but does not correspond with how the defensive runs saved (DRS) and ultimate zone rating (UZR) metrics see him – both have him performing much better thus far. I am not able to explain why these systems see him so differently. This, from Tuesday night, is a tremendous example of what he can do:

I do love a good outfield assist. Anyway, the difference across metrics is likely a sampling issue, as for all of these comparisons the small sample siren should blare. Defensive metrics in ~300 innings should be given a wide berth. Nevertheless, the initial returns are not looking great for many of the Sox’s defenders, which makes for interesting discussion fodder.

You may have noted that I omitted third basemen from the table above. I did so because too many guys have tried to hack it over there the last two years that it didn’t make for a clean comparison. With that said, as a group, this year’s third basemen are on track to be worse defensively than last year’s group, largely because Travis Shaw was a pretty solid contributor with the glove there last year. Having Deven Marrero man the position for the foreseeable few weeks should help the defense, until Brock Holt and/or Pablo Sandoval are back.

Now, above I mostly absolved the Red Sox pitchers of wrongdoing in the team’s measly start to the season. But, while they are FIPing with the best of them, this year’s group is allowing more hard contact (36.8 Hard Hit %; second highest in baseball) and a higher average exit velocity (88.3 mph, second highest in baseball) than last year’s group did (31.9 [11th], 87.4 [22nd], respectively). Harder hit balls are harder to field and this could explain some of the discrepancy in defensive efficiency from last season. Maybe the pitchers should buy their own drinks for the first round after all.

The batted ball profile of the pitchers is interesting to be sure, but it cannot explain all of the decline in defense the Red Sox are exhibiting through their first 38 games. Maybe, as the old saying goes, they are carrying their offensive woes out to the field. Or maybe it is all just the regular variation in defense that we often see from season-to-season, and the Red Sox have just come up on the wrong side of things more often through the first quarter of the season. Either way, it is hard to imagine that this group will continue to be so sloppy. With Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young as the four primary outfielders, the Red Sox have a center fielder available for all three spots. Pedroia and Bogaerts are at least average up the middle. As the shine continues to wear off Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez will see more time. There will remain problems on the corners in the infield, but those can be mitigated given the rest of the squad. But that is all on paper. Executing defensively is an often overlooked, but important component of winning baseball. If the Red Sox are going to continue to be limited offensively, at least as compared to last year, they will need to sharpen up their defense if they want to get back on top of the AL East standings.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

Back-to-back disappointing seasons will make any leader question their organization’s process. Red Sox principal owner John Henry did just that and revealed he felt the club had “perhaps overly relied on numbers” when making roster decisions of late. To those who still think jokes about Carmine – the Red Sox’s statistical database developed under Theo Epstein and Ben Cherington – are funny, Henry’s words likely rang true and signaled the beginning of a much needed change in philosophy. To those who appreciate what an analytical approach to the game can help bring (e.g., three World Series rings in ten years), the comments sounded like a search to assign blame and, perhaps, an over-reaction to last year’s disappointment. In any case, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe notes that the team is not retreating from statistical analysis. Rather it is actually committing more money to its analytics department but will incorporate a different approach in how that information is weighed when making decisions. That sounds like a perfectly reasonable approach and probably didn’t necessitate the media firestorm that resulted in the wake of Henry’s comments. Sure, Dave Dombrowski is known to prefer a greater emphasis on scouting and player development than on statistical analysis. That’s fine. But finding the ideal (and clearly elusive) balance between the two could lead to another prolonged period of success in Boston.

The second season of the hit show Find Hanley Ramirez a Defensive Position has started. This season Hanley tackles first base, though to some his move back to the infield arguably comes with more risk than his transition to left field in 2015. Dustin Pedroia reminded Hanley of just how important first base is in an ever so Pedroia way. Hanley has a lot to learn about the nuances of his new position, with limited time to do so. Regardless, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com reports that the team is focusing on slow, simple, incremental progress. Red Sox third base and infield coach Brian Butterfield is the man in charge of transforming Hanley into a competent first baseman. The pace of Butterfield’s instruction has been planned with a keen awareness of the concerns over Ramirez’s health. Hanley is coming off a shoulder injury in 2015 that sapped his power at the plate, so the coaching staff is doing their best to avoid re-aggravating it. Despite these precautions, P.J. Wright of Boston.com writes that Pedroia is confident Hanley can make the transition to first base successfully. If he doesn’t the Red Sox have alternative options in Travis Shaw, prospect Sam Travis, and even (gasp!) Allen Craig, although fitting all the pieces of the puzzle together could prove difficult.

Quick Hits

On Monday, the Red Sox agreed to a minor-league contract with outfielder Daniel Murphy. As Alex Speier of The Boston Globe notes, this is a smart signing that offers the team solid depth protection against any underperformance from Jackie Bradley Jr. and/or Rusney Castillo.

Hard-throwing, high-strikeout pitchers have been a hallmark of Dave Dombrowski’s previous teams. The additions of Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith and David Price ensure that the 2016 Red Sox will be no exception to this trend. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal spoke with each of these pitchers (and others) about the importance of velocity and about how correctly synchronizing pitchers’ body types with the mechanics of their deliveries helps maintain it.

Blake Swihart comes into Spring Training as the likely starting catcher, a considerable advancement on the depth chart from this time last year. This role requires him to take charge of the pitching staff, working as an on-field coach of sorts. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that Swihart had always done well with this aspect of his position in the minor leagues, but had difficulty with it following his early promotion to Boston last season. Swihart’s comfort grew over the course of last summer, and this spring he is in camp working hard and providing insight to his battery mates.

Swihart’s catching partner Christian Vazquez is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, making important steps forward as camp progresses. Last week, Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com noted that the Red Sox were slowing Vazquez down in order to take the long, cautious path with his rehab. Then on Monday, Vazquez had an important throwing session that, as Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com reports, went really well. With this sort of continued, methodical progress, Vazquez could start seeing action in Grapefruit League games soon enough.

The 2016 season marks changes not only on the field and in the front office but also in the Red Sox broadcast booths. Dave O’Brien is moving from radio to join the television side, replacing fan-favorite Don Orsillo. Chad Finn, writing for The Boston Globe, spoke with O’Brien about the transition, reminding Red Sox fans that, despite Orsillo’s departure, they are still in good hands.

David Ortiz is embarking on his last trip through a major league season. Due to his star status, this final campaign will involve a farewell tour of some sort. The exact nature of the Big Papi celebration remains to be seen, but at Boston.com, Chad Finn hopes the farewell tour coincides with a victory tour. Ideally, Ortiz will ride a duckboat off into the proverbial sunset.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images