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	<title>Boston &#187; Stud</title>
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		<title>The Evolution of David Price</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/07/the-evolution-of-david-price/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/07/the-evolution-of-david-price/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jan 2016 14:11:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Skillin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ace]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stud]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3265</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[David Price has long been really good, but there's substantial evidence that he's only getting better.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For nearly a decade, David Price has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Red Sox fans certainly don’t need to be reminded of how good Price was when he first debuted, considering he was one of the main culprits in Tampa Bay’s defeat of Boston in the 2008 ALCS.</p>
<p>From the very beginning of his pro career, when the Rays selected him first overall in the 2007 MLB Draft to his initial seasons with Tampa, Price was primed for stardom. That, over eight years later, he remains a bona-fide ace and a pitcher the Red Sox were willing to spend $217 million on demonstrates how dominant—and consistently dominant—he’s been during his career.</p>
<p>Yet Price is by no means the same pitcher he was in those early days with the Rays. The left-hander has evolved throughout his time in MLB, and his approach against opposing hitters has changed, in some ways dramatically.</p>
<p>In many respects, Price has only improved as a pitcher the last few seasons. In terms of what pitchers can control, he’s excelling at career-best levels. Price is striking out more batters and walking fewer than ever before, all while keeping his home-run rate right in line with his career averages.</p>
<p>What really stands out about Price is how few hitters he’s walked the past couple years. Dating back to the start of 2013, he <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=500&amp;type=1&amp;season=2015&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2013&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=8,a" target="_blank">ranks fourth in all of baseball</a> in walk rate (min. 500 IP), and he’s mainly surrounded by starters who don’t fall into the “ace” category on that list, such as Bartolo Colon, Mark Buehrle and Phil Hughes.</p>
<p>At the same time, Price has excelled at limiting contact while pounding the strike zone. He’s posted the two highest strikeout rates of his career the past two seasons, and his zone-contact percentage of 81.7% was <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=pit&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=5&amp;season=2015&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2015&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=7,a" target="_blank">fourth among MLB starters</a> in 2015. In this regard, Price is among a group of hurlers he&#8217;s more often mentioned in the same breath with in Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer.</p>
<p>So Price is throwing tons of strikes and generating loads of whiffs, which is a pretty great combination. But how? How has he been able to sharpen his command and also increase his strikeouts?</p>
<p>The answer lies in how Price’s pitch selection has changed over the years. When he first arrived in the majors, he mainly attacked hitters with an overpowering fastball/slider combination. As his career has gone on, Price has added a few different pitches to his arsenal and made some other tweaks along the way.</p>
<p>Last season, Price threw four different pitches over 15 percent of the time; a four-seamer, a sinker, a changeup and a cutter, which has replaced his slider. He also mixed in a curveball in nearly 9 percent of his offerings, giving him five pitches that, on average, clock in anywhere between 95 mph (his four-seamer) and 80 mph (his curve). All that variance in pitch selection reflects the many weapons at Price’s disposal.</p>
<p>The strides Price has made with his changeup in recent years are perhaps the most noteworthy. As the graph below shows, Price’s reliance on the offering has increased on an annual basis, and last season, his usage of the pitch rose above 20% for the first time.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/01/Brooksbaseball-Chart.png"><img class=" wp-image-3266 size-large aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/01/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="640" height="360" /></a></p>
<p>That improved change has enabled Price to better his performance against right-handed hitters over the years. Price went with the offering over 25% of the time against righties last season, yielding just a .219 batting average against and 19.5% whiff rate, according to Brooks Baseball, his highest on any pitch.</p>
<p>The example below, of Price striking out Elvis Andrus with a changeup in the ALDS, shows how the pitch can be a deceptive weapon for the southpaw, especially considering he can still challenge hitters with mid-90s heat.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://i.imgur.com/C9zMH7H.gifv" width="100%" height="404" ></iframe></p>
<p>In fact, Price&#8217;s changeup got <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=456034&amp;p_hand=-1&amp;ppos=-1&amp;cn=200&amp;gFilt=&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=po&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=01/01/2015&amp;endDate=01/01/2016&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1" target="_blank">more swings and misses on a per-pitch basis</a> than any of his other offerings. It’s little wonder, then, that he finished with better results against righties, who hit .216/.267/.342 off him in 2015, than left-handed batters (.257/.284/.374). Prior to 2014, when Price achieved the same feat, he had never posted better numbers against righties than lefties in single campaign.</p>
<p>All this demonstrates how much Price’s approach on the mound has changed, especially in recent seasons. For someone who used to dominate hitters with overpowering stuff, Price now excels due to his intelligence, elite command and control of multiple quality pitches, all while still averaging 95 mph on his fastball.</p>
<blockquote><p>Since 2013, Price has had better command, by walk rate, than Mark Buerhle, while striking out batters at a higher clip than Zack Greinke.</p></blockquote>
<p>And indeed, Price’s ability to adapt throughout his career is one of the main reasons why Dave Dombrowski was so adamant that Boston’s ownership spend the money required to sign him. It’s also the explanation for why Price, at the age of 30, has shown little sign of a decline but is rather at the peak of his powers.</p>
<p>Since 2013, Price has had better command, by walk rate, than Mark Buerhle, while striking out batters at a higher clip than Zack Greinke. The Red Sox should be excited about signing a pitcher of Price’s quality, and his willingness to evolve and seek ways to improve, even after winning a Cy Young at age 26, should give Boston hope that Price remains a top-of-the-rotation arm for years to come.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Nick Turchiaro/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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		<title>Breaking Down Xander Bogaerts&#8217; New Swing</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/03/breaking-down-xander-bogaerts-new-swing/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/09/03/breaking-down-xander-bogaerts-new-swing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2015 13:00:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Alex Skillin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Let me see you hips swing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stud]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xander Bogaerts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2290</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Xander Bogaerts has been a monster in 2015. What changes has he made to his swing to perform as such? ]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the benefit of hindsight, past doubts regarding Xander Bogaerts seem hard to believe, but the youngster entered the season as one of the Red Sox’s biggest question marks.</p>
<p>After a surprisingly woeful rookie campaign, <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/04/14/the-lasting-importance-of-xander-bogaerts/" target="_blank">many wondered whether Bogaerts</a> could stick at shortstop in Boston. His fielding prowess had long come under scrutiny, and the club’s decision to shift him over to third base to make room for Stephen Drew in the middle of the 2014 season didn’t help matters much.</p>
<p>Yet beyond these issues, Bogaerts looked nothing like the budding offensive star who had so enthused scouts and prospect writers down in the minors. He batted just .240/.297/.362 over 594 plate appearances, with his precocious hitting ability vanishing under a horde of ugly swings and poor at-bats.</p>
<p>Those struggles feel like a distant memory now. Bogaerts has hit all season long for Boston and enters Thursday with a .319/.349/.409 line. At the age of 22, his 2.3 WARP <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1820883" target="_blank">ranks eighth among MLB shortstops</a>.</p>
<p>These improvements have come with a change in approach that has seen Bogaerts drive the ball to all fields with regularity:</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/09/Xander-Bogaerts.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-2293 aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2015/09/Xander-Bogaerts.png" alt="Xander Bogaerts" width="650" height="500" /></a></p>
<p>In addition, Bogaerts is hitting fewer balls in the air, an adjustment that has seen his batting average and contact ability rise at the expense of his power. According to FanGraphs, Bogaerts fly-ball percentage has dipped from 41.3% a year ago to 26.9% this season. His strikeout rate over that time span has dropped from 23.2% to 14.8%.</p>
<p>This new approach has certainly aided Bogaerts’ results, but the mechanical tweaks he’s made to his swing have received far less attention.</p>
<p>Indeed, the subtle adjustments that Bogaerts has made to his stance have allowed him to achieve more consistency at the plate this season. Most of these changes can be viewed in Bogaerts’ pre-pitch routine as he awaits the offering from the opposing pitcher.</p>
<p>As you can see in this video from last September, Bogaerts had a closed stance that was square to the pitcher, and he hardly moved his hands at all before the pitch was delivered.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://i.imgur.com/nlAxvbw.gifv" width="100%" height="404" ></iframe></p>
<p>This season, Bogaerts has noticeably opened up his stance, appears to have slightly less bend in his knees, and begins moving his hands up and down (possibly as a timing mechanism) just as the pitcher starts his windup. His stride is also a little bigger and more deliberate.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://i.imgur.com/NyxhTAT.gifv#embed" width="100%" height="404" ></iframe></p>
<p>To determine just how much these tweaks have aided Bogaerts’ success, I reached out to Baseball Prospectus’ hitting guru Ryan Parker to get his thoughts.</p>
<p>Parker noticed many of these same adjustments, telling me via email that “Bogaerts didn’t really make one big change to his overall swing, but instead he’s made a handful of smaller changes.”</p>
<p>What Parker focused on especially was Bogaerts’ pre-pitch hand movement:</p>
<p>“The more meaningful change (in my view) is the Mookie-esque bat waggle he&#8217;s added while he gets settled into his stance. In the past he would get into his stance and wait. This season he&#8217;s keeping his stance loose and relaxed. That fluidity has carried over into his actual swing. “</p>
<p>From a fan standpoint, what’s stood out about Bogaerts is just how much more comfortable he looks at the plate and how much the game appears to have slowed down for him.</p>
<p>Parker feels that the different components of Bogaerts’ swing just work better together this season:</p>
<p>“Watch how his hands and lower body flow this year compared to last. In 2014 he would start his stride, get to the top of his leg lift, then his hands begin to work behind his body. This year it&#8217;s much simpler. When the feet move, the hands move. Same movements each year, but the timing pattern is far better in 2015.”</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://i.imgur.com/XXaUr3v.gifv#embed" width="100%" height="404" ></iframe></p>
<p>While Bogaerts’ overall results have improved, many have wondered whether his power decline is a signal that he’ll never turn into the middle-of-the-order threat that most observers expected him to become.</p>
<p>For his part, Parker isn’t worried about Bogaerts’ power, though he did admit that portions of the shortstop’s swing in 2014 were better engineered for driving the ball:</p>
<p>“I actually like how he uses his hips in 2014 more than 2015. Last year, he would start with a bend at his waist (imagine the hips as a hinge) and would keep this hinge as he fired. In 2015, he moves better but isn&#8217;t taking advantage of any sort of hip hinge. It&#8217;s not a swing-ruining move obviously, but he is leaving some power on the table. Look how upright he stays throughout the swing this season. If he can combine the flow of ‘15 with the hinge of ’14 … look out.”</p>
<p>And this is what we need to remember about Bogaerts. He’s 22 years old and still making adjustments while thriving at one of the most demanding positions in the game. There are plenty of reasons &#8212; from his minor league track record to his body size to his precocious ability &#8212; to believe that he’ll develop more power in the coming years. One can expect he&#8217;ll make more tweaks to help unlock all that potential.</p>
<p>Bogaerts has already shown a tremendous ability to make necessary changes and improve his game in a short period of time. He&#8217;s cut his strikeout rate by nearly 10 percent this season. Just a year ago, after many questioned if he’d ever be good enough defensively to stick at shortstop, he looks like an above-average fielder.</p>
<p>His bat, too, has improved by leaps and bounds. Judging by how much more comfortable he looks at the plate in 2015, doubting Bogaerts’ ability feels like the last thing anyone should do.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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