Betts put together an incredibly impressive 2015 that made his floor look almost impossibly high for someone his age. For me, though, the change was more about what Bogaerts did in 2015. He was good last year — even I would not deny that — but he wasn’t quite what we expected.

That’s changing this year, and oh my goodness, this version of Bogaerts is super scary for his opponents. In the piece I linked to above, there were two broad and important issues with his 2015 campaign. He showed a lack of patience and a lack of power. We’ll start with the patience, because it’s first alphabetically and Alpha-Bits cereal is a real tasty snack. Last season, Bogaerts did manage a .355 OBP, which is clearly a good thing. However, it came on the back of a .320 batting average. His patience had waned incredibly, and he finished the season with a walk rate just under five percent.

This year, he’s bringing back some of that patience and discipline with a 7.6 percent walk rate over his first 172 plate appearances. Put another way, he’s already reached 40.6 percent of 2015’s walk total in 26.2 percent of the plate appearances. That seems good.

Bogaerts’ swing rate has stayed almost exactly the same as it was last year on pitches that come through the zone, but it has fallen significantly on pitches out of the zone.

If you read that piece I wrote back in September, I vaguely stated that he needed to find a happy medium between being too patient and too aggressive. It sure looks like he’s found that. As of this writing, his swing rate is almost exactly in the middle of where it was in 2014 (when he was super patient) and in 2015 (when he was weirdly aggressive, at least relative to his track record).

That on it’s own isn’t always a good thing, however. We want Bogaerts swinging at good pitches to hit; we just don’t want him taking hacks at pitches falling out of the zone. As you can probably tell by the complimentary tone of this entire article, that is exactly what Bogaerts is doing. His swing rate has stayed almost exactly the same as it was last year on pitches that come through the zone, but it has fallen significantly on pitches out of the zone.

The biggest reason for this appears to be improved pitch recognition. Intuitively, we know that fastballs are the easiest pitches to hit and also the offerings that end up in the zone at the highest rate. On the other hand, breaking balls and offspeed pitches are tough to barrel up and often break out of the zone (at least if the pitcher is executing his plan.)

Well, so far in 2016, Bogaerts is laying off the offspeed and breaking stuff, while jumping on fastballs a little more often.

All this helps that walk rate, of course. It also helps the other part of his offensive game that needed to improve: his power. This was supposed to be Bogaerts’ calling card when he reached the majors, but we’ve yet to see it on a consistent basis at the highest level. His 35 doubles last season were certainly encouraging, but the home runs simply weren’t there. That’s what leads to a .101 ISO that puts a player on the same power tier as guys like Cameron Maybin and Brandon Phillips. This year, he’s continuing to hit the doubles while also sprinkling in four home runs (57.1 percent of last year’s total), culminating in a much more encouraging .166 ISO.

Some of it is likely luck reversal. Bogaerts’ 5.5 percent HR/FB ratio last year was too low, but as always, it’s not quite that simple. He’s hitting the ball a lot farther this year, which helps more of those fly balls leave the yard. To wit, his average fly ball in 2016, per Baseball Heat Maps, is 287 feet. Last year, it was 268 feet.

A big reason for that is the improved pitch selection outlined above. In addition to that, he’s pulling the ball a lot more often this year than last. In 2016, Bogaerts has pulled 40 percent of his batted balls, according to FanGraphs, with the other 60 percent being evenly split between center and right field. We know from watching many, many baseball players hit baseballs that power is enhanced by pulling the ball. Last season, Bogaerts distributed the ball across all three fields evenly, per FanGraphs. That approach helped with his BABIP ability, but it hurt his overall power production.

Now, here’s the really scary part for Red Sox opponents. Bogaerts improving in these two key areas is great! The expectation — at least from me — was that this improvement would come with regression in other areas. Instead, that BABIP ability I mentioned a few seconds ago hasn’t gone away. As of this writing, he’s the proud owner of a .389 BABIP in 2016. That’s unlikely to last all season, but we’re also talking about a guy with a .375 BABIP over a year-plus-six-weeks stretch. It’s not at all unreasonable to expect him to be near the top of the BABIP leaderboard for years to come with a true-talent ability in the .335-.350 range. Oh yeah, and Bogaerts plays a legitimately solid shortstop and has turned into a near-elite base runner, too.

That Betts/Bogaerts conversation has always been more entertainment than anything else. They are both Red Sox, and should be for a long time, and that is rad as hell imo. With that said, I wavered on my stance for a little while, but I’m back fully on the Xander Train. That has nothing to do with Betts’ relatively slow start, and everything to do with some more impressive adjustments from Bogaerts. He’s now showing the potential to be a player who can put up .300/.400/.500 seasons in his prime while playing above-average shortstop. Even better is that ability he’s shown to grow each and every year. It’s a really fun time to be a Red Sox fan.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

** Stop reading now if you don’t want spoilers. **

One of the central myths in George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire is “The Prince That Was Promised” prophecy, which foretells the second coming of a savior who will defeat The Great Other in battle, just as it occurred thousands of years before modern Game of Thrones time.

Daenerys Targaryen learns of this prophecy in The House of the Undying. Samwell Tarly learns of it while speaking to Maester Aemon Targaryen. Additionally, Melisandre of Ashai speaks often of the prophecy of  Azor Ahai, another legendary warrior that in all likelihood is a variation of The Prince That Was Promised (TPTWP). At times the intrigue surrounding TPTWP prophecy has taken a backseat to the political dramas unfolding in Westeros, but with the events of Hardhome in the TV series adding a sense of urgency to the impending Ice Zombie invasion, it’s clear that TPTWP will come into play quite soon.

To this point, most predictions about TPTWP in ASOIAF have been wrong. Aemon states that Rhaegar Targaryen initially believed he was the prophesied warrior before later becoming convinced it would be his son, Aegon, who would inherit this mantle. Melisandre, of course, incorrectly believes that Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai reborn, despite subtle clues in the books (his sword is not magic) and less subtle clues in the show (he’s dead) that this isn’t true.

Fan theories would have us believe that Jon Snow, Daenerys or some combination therewithin is TPTWP. Frankly, this is probably true, especially if R+L=J (and, c’mon, it does). But I would like to posit a different theory, one that I have not yet seen on the ASOIAF subreddit, on Westeros.org or anywhere else.

What if TPTWP isn’t a Targaryen at all? What if TPTWP is none other than Xander Bogaerts?

Let us consider the central elements of TPTWP legacy and what it entails.

TPTWP MUST BE A FIGHTER

“‘I will require a sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.” – Rhaegar Targaryen to Ser Willem Darry, per Barristan Selmy’s recollection

This one is pretty simple. If TPTWP is going to defeat the Great Other in battle, he needs to be a fierce warrior. If only we had some clue that Xander could handle his own on the battlefield …

Good knight. Call him “Sir Xander Bogaerts” or risk losing your head, peasant: http://t.co/zYDxw6mGh6

— Dave Brown (@AnswerDave) February 18, 2014

ZOMG. Let’s move on …

TPTWP WIELDS A FLAMING WEAPON

“In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.” – Melisandre, to Davos Seaworth

According to legend, the original Azor Ahai made use of a flaming weapon of destruction that gained magical powers after he thrust it into the heart of his wife, Nissa Nissa. While Melisandre uses tricks to make Stannis’ weapon appear to be on fire (we see Thoros of Myr perform similar magic), it’s abundantly clear that his sword is nothing special.

There are lots of theories as to what Lightbringer may be and who wields it, but honestly, I think the answer is pretty clear. Xander Bogaerts is batting .335/.386/.497 with a .385 BABIP. Last year, he hit .320/.355/.421 with a .372 BABIP.  

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images … sort of

 Xander has been swinging a flaming weapon for 14 months now, ever since he pulled it from the flaming wreckage of Stephen Drew’s career. Another box checked off …

 TPTWP COMES AFTER A BLEEDING STAR

“Born amidst salt and smoke, beneath a bleeding star. I know the prophecy.” – Marwyn, to Samwell Tarly  

This is the deal-breaker, right? WRONG. Prophecies can be difficult to interpret, but there are two obvious signs that Xander is gaining his powers at the right time.  

How’s this for a red, bleeding star?    

No? How’s this for something a little more recent?

Meteor captured on dashcam video lights up New England sky https://t.co/u2gcMMtNG6 pic.twitter.com/5ED30yNmOK — WPTV (@WPTV) May 18, 2016

It’s all happening, you guys.

THE DRAGON HAS THREE HEADS 

There is one alternate theory regarding TPTWP that Maester Aemon communicates to Sam shortly before his death. In A Feast For Crows Chapter 35, Aemon, speaking about Daenerys, says:

 “The dragon must have three heads … but I am too old to be one of them. I should be with her, showing her the way, but my body has betrayed me.”

 Could it be, then, that TPTWP/Azor Ahai is actually three people who will combine forces to bring the world into the light once more?

The dragon must have three heads. pic.twitter.com/dUiTnhw5Ve

— Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) May 16, 2016

You tell me, friends. You tell me.

Top Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images