Let’s simplify this a bit: it’s just been one bad month. I know, losing sucks. I get it. The Red Sox have been immensely frustrating to watch, it’s true. But let’s ease off on heating up Farrell’s seat. The manager isn’t the common denominator to this team’s failings, even if he hasn’t made the right choices here and there. He doesn’t need to be fired, nor will he be, logic willing.

The Red Sox, at 81 games in, were 44-37. Maybe we expected more after a ridiculous first couple months, but that’s still very good. Great, even, if you’re one with low expectations. So let’s say the Red Sox stay on this course and finish at 88-74. Would you hate that? Probably not! That’s competing for a playoff berth, and that record gives them an outside shot to win the AL East. Three teams with that record or worse made the playoffs last season, and they were all American League teams. It’s not like Farrell has substantially deviated the team from the postseason track they were on. They’re still right in the thick of it! They’re just not above the chaos, that’s all.

Farrell isn’t to blame for slumps and BABIP regressions. I don’t think he could’ve instantly made Hanley’s mid-June power outage end overnight, nor is he responsible for Pedroia not hitting a single home run all month. Shaw was getting exploited pretty badly over the last month by pitchers both right- and left-handed, and is that on the manager? No, or at least, not entirely. The coaches can only help them along. The players have to come through. They have to be the ones to adjust at the plate. For what it’s worth, they probably weren’t going to keep up a historic pace of run-scoring anyway. Probably.

Farrell can’t control how terrible the Red Sox’s in-house starter options are, only which ones he can possibly use.

The one thing Farrell can take some blame for is the pitching, or at least how he manages the pitchers. But even then, it’s difficult to decipher obvious bad moves from calls that simply look bad in hindsight. He can’t control how terrible the Red Sox’s in-house starter options are, only which ones he can possibly use. Clay Buchholz becoming the world’s newest pumpkin? Not his fault. Henry Owens walking his first 40 batters, you, your mother, and half your cousins? Not Farrell’s fault. He rightfully gets flak for certain aspects of his bullpen management, since he’s tended to ride Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara pretty hard every season. But he’s made good decisions more often than not.

Look at Craig Kimbrel. He is the relief ace of this team. You should be able to rely on him anytime, anywhere. Last night against the Rangers, he was not reliable whatsoever. Even so, that was the right choice! Farrell used his best reliever in a one-run game against a very good team to try and keep it that way. That is the best option in that situation. You can’t ask for much more from your manager.

What I’m trying to say is that firing Farrell right now doesn’t make the team better. He’s been more than acceptable in his time at the helm of the Red Sox. Torey Lovullo would also be great as manager, and I like him as well, but right now, he isn’t manager, and won’t be until otherwise told. As of this moment, John Farrell is the Lord of Harrenhal, and no dragons are coming to burn him out just yet. The team isn’t scuffling because of him, and firing him because the team is 45-38 seems really far-fetched. People want a scapegoat for a 28-game span in June. There doesn’t have to be one.

If the Red Sox really felt like firing someone to make it look like they’re taking action, the first one to go would be the pitching coach, Carl Willis. The pitching has been the worst part of the team, and giving him a pink slip would make it look like they’re doing something about it. They haven’t gone with that superficial approach just yet, as they’re getting Brian Bannister to try and assist him. It’s a solid plan to be sure, but one can only assume that Willis might already be on thin ice.

The team is still winning, despite what the reactions you see every game would lead you to believe. It took a historic September collapse to oust Terry Francona (and the team still went 90-72!). The Red Sox endured six months of ineptitude and chronic mismanagement before Bobby Valentine was sent packing. John Farrell has done nothing on that scale to deserve it. 2014 and 2015 were generally bad, yes, but both seem far worse with high expectations than without.

If common sense persists, the Red Sox will not fire Farrell anytime soon. 30 days of bad baseball in the middle of a season, though it seems long, isn’t something that should determine his job over. Should the Red Sox have a few more months where they go 10-18, the pitchers can’t stop giving up homers, and the hitters sputter worse than a badly-tuned car, then yeah, the front office will reconsider. But for now, John Farrell’s job should be safe, and firing him would do a lot more harm than good.

Photo by Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports Images

Umpiring is inconsistent, and it’s not like replay-worthy plays follow a regular schedule. Yes, the Red Sox upped their challenge total from 35 in 2014 to 52 in 2015, but it could just be that there were more calls worth challenging. It could also be, though, that the Red Sox revised their threshold for what that means, challenging more calls that were on the fence. “Clear and convincing evidence” is one of those objective standards that can only be applied subjectively. It’s possible that the Red Sox decided to go for the replay when the chances a play would get overturned seemed like they were “probably not, but maybe.”

If the idea is to win as many challenges as possible, then we don’t care at all about a team’s rate of success with its challenges; we care only about maximizing the number of overturned calls.

As the number of challenges rose by 114 in 2015 (an increase of 11 percent), the number of successful challenges also rose, from 556 to 610 (an increase of 10 percent). If the idea is to win as many challenges as possible, then we don’t care at all about a team’s rate of success with its challenges; we care only about maximizing the number of overturned calls. Two seasons’ worth of challenges can’t prove that more challenges means more overturned calls, but it looks to me like they can prove that it might mean that.

Rise Across the Game

The number of replay challenges was up this season, from 1052 to 1166 — not a very big difference, about one challenge per team per four games (.24 per team game). That 11 percent increase seems pretty significant over nearly 5,000 team-games in a season. The Red Sox may have had more bad calls go against them in 2015, but that doesn’t seem to work as an explanation for the rise of replay challenges across the game. It’s a little more than that.

Take a look at the number of challenges issued by each team in 2015:

Do you see what I see? Some of the teams generally considered to be forward-thinking are near the top of the list: the Astros, Cubs, and Rays, in addition to the Red Sox. Of those four, two dramatically increased their number of challenges this season (Astros +18; Red Sox +17). The other two were also among the league leaders last season (Cubs 1st, +21 over league average; Rays T-2nd, +13 over league average). The Pirates also saw a healthy increase, for what it’s worth. And if you want to make your own “forward-thinking” determinations, here are all the team deltas and totals for both seasons, retrieved from the incredible Baseball Savant.

That may not be clear and convincing that it’s smart to challenge more plays than the average team, but maybe it is “evidence.” The total number of plays that could be reviewed (more or less, total batters faced by pitchers + total PA) also clearly can play a role here, dragging teams with good pitching and meager offenses down toward the bottom of the totals, and those with poor pitching and strong offenses toward the top. Those don’t actually change a whole lot, though, and didn’t for the Red Sox (12,461 BF + PA in 2015, 12,457 BF + PA in 2014). It looks like there’s more going on.

The Downside

During the regular season, managers get just one replay challenge to play with per game (in the postseason, it’s two), and an unsuccessful challenge means that opportunity is gone. One thing you’d want to know is how likely it is that you’d regret losing your ability to challenge later in the game. That’s almost no consideration at all in the ninth inning, but it has to be enormous in the first. We can actually look at that one! With challenges issued about once every four games, maybe it’s not so hard to tell how likely it is you’d want to challenge a play later in a particular game. Halfway through? One in eight. First play in the fourth? About one in six. But that’s probably not the right question, because you wouldn’t pass on an iffy challenge only because you might get as iffy a chance later in the game.

Instead: you probably want to know the chances that a call will be made that’s not iffy. That’s the nightmare: don’t let the guys with the calculators push you into challenging a call with an iffy chance of success in the second inning, because if you lose, you might end up helplessly watching a clearly blown call later in the game, grilled by a glut of reporters and torched on talk radio. To figure that out, I think we want to use the rate of overturned calls via replay.

If the nightmare is a thing that ever happens, then there are at least some obviously blown calls that are not challenged by a team, which would push the number of overturned calls lower than the number we want. And yet, we’re starting with the premise that issuing more challenges with iffy chances of success could turn into more success, and we just said that those aren’t part of the nightmare we’re worried about; those overturns would push the number higher than what we want.

Combining both seasons’ data, there were 0.12 overturned calls per game, a little less frequently than one every eight games. It seems, then, that even in the most extreme circumstance—the decision of whether to challenge the very first play of the game—the downside can’t get bigger than that one-in-eight chance.

Is it Smart to Challenge More Plays?

So all we have so far is: an 11 percent increase in challenges was met with a 10 percent increase in overturned calls, and the downside of challenging an iffy play is a chance of somewhere between 12 percent and zero percent (game-ending play) of missing the chance to redress a very redressable wrong later in the game. If there’s a way to game this, the proceeds are not very likely to be high.

If we assume for the sake of argument that an extra iffy challenge has a 10 percent chance of success, then we’re in break-even territory toward the beginning of the game—but from there, it’s a steady march to “no brainer” territory late in the game. It’s hard to go to war for a small and uncertain upside when there’s a small but measurable downside that would result in getting pilloried, but it gets easier as the game advances. If teams were trying to capitalize on this potential return from issuing iffy challenges, it stands to reason that those teams would end up issuing more challenges later in the game. But it just doesn’t look like that’s been true so far: the top teams in terms of total challenges didn’t have them skew toward the late innings. If it is smart to issue more iffy challenges late in games, it doesn’t look like anyone is being smart exactly that way.

It might be too much to ask of the guys who are in the trenches, who already have to weigh the importance of winning a challenge on a particular play, the chances of success, the size of the gap between the truth and what the video might actually show, and all the human factors at work: icing pitchers, backing your players, and how everyone would feel knowing no challenge is available.

In the end, it might be that all we have is a story of the New York review crews getting a little more assertive, and maybe lowering their threshold for clear and convincing evidence. I’m not sure how to measure that. But if that is the explanation for the rise in challenges in the game, that would still be a reason to challenge more plays—and a reason to watch to see how teams handle challenges in 2016.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

While the 2015 Red Sox season was a disappointment overall, the team was a different squad in the second half. For example, in the first half the starting pitching ranked 28^th in the league by ERA (4.75), and 13^th by FIP (3.90). In the second half their rankings improved to 9^th (3.97) and 11^th (3.95). The first half involved adjusting to a young catcher, a new pitching coach and, for Rick Porcello and Wade Miley, new surroundings. Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com has more on how the pitchers’ gradual acclimation to these things over the course of the season led to much better results for them on the mound. You should note that the improvement in pitching really only came in the runs allowed department; the fielding independent numbers remained basically the same. As Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes, outfield defense has had a lot to do with keeping runs off the board in the second half. Moving from Hanley Ramirez and his -19 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 747.2 innings in left field to Jackie Bradley Jr. (3 DRS in 122.1 innings) and Rusney Castillo (9 DRS in 217.0 innings) was absolutely critical. A full season of the Betts, Bradley Jr. and Castillo outfield would be a lot of fun for Red Sox pitchers.

While the Red Sox starting pitching was much improved in the second half of the season, the team will likely pursue a frontline ace in the offseason. The available big names are Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, David Price and Jordan Zimmerman. In my opinion, Greinke and Price are the most attractive of this group, but they will likely come with the highest price tags, which could make them that much more difficult to lock down and Dave Dombrowski more hesitant to commit long-term. However, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe suggests that the way Dombrowski handled contract negotiations with Max Scherzer while in Detroit offers insight into what we can expect from the new boss this winter. He is willing to act aggressively within well-defined limits and will consider giving a long-term deal to a pitcher in his 30s. Dombrowski also notes that he is willing to move to secondary plans if acquiring a top-of-the-rotation starter proves too difficult, and is well-aware of the criticism that can come with making that decision. Secondary plans could involve someone like Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, or maybe even Rich Hill (!). Starting pitching is just one of many areas about which many interesting decisions will be made by the Red Sox’s front office this offseason. For example, Scott Lauber of the BostonHerald.com reminds us that the bullpen is also an area that needs considerable attention. However, adding an arm or two to the starting rotation would allow players being considered for a rotation spot to be moved to the bullpen (e.g., Joe Kelly, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright), in a sort of killing two birds with one stone approach.

Quick Hits

Hanley Ramirez came into the season looking bulked up and ready to perform, but things did not go according to plan; by now you have read about his well-documented struggles. Well, it turns out the Red Sox think that Ramirez’s extra bulk may have played a role in his difficulty adjusting to playing left field, and contributed to his injuries. Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston.com writes that the team has asked him to lose 15-20 pounds over the offseason.

Dave Dombrowski announced that John Farrell and Torey Lovullo will be back with the team as manager and bench coach, respectively, in 2016. Scott Lauber of BostonHerald.com outlines how the decision to retain the coaching duo benefits the team, and Jason Mastrodonato has positive reactions to the move from a number of Red Sox players in his notebook.

Sunday marked Don Orsillo’s final broadcast for the Red Sox. The game featured many highlights from Don’s time in the Red Sox’s booth, as well as heartfelt comments from broadcast-partner Jerry Remy, a tip-of-the-cap from Red Sox players, and finally, a touching note from Don (text of his comments here). Jon Tomase of WEEI.com kept a running diary of the broadcast that is well-worth your time.

Thirty-nine-year-old David Ortiz finished the 2015 season with a .273/.360/.553 line (.304 TAv), hit 37 home runs and 37 doubles. Somehow, despite that line, there exists a negative perception of Ortiz’s performance among some Red Sox fans. Chad Finn of Boston.com reminds fans to appreciate Ortiz’s production and asks them to stop measuring him against mythic perceptions that exist for other players.

Last Three Good Game Stories of 2015…

The Red Sox lost all three games of their final weekend set with the Indians, the first of which was an 8-2 drubbing that, as Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com writes, ended Henry Owens season on a sour note.

Craig Breslow got his second start of the season in the middle game of the Cleveland series. He pitched well, and tells Jason Mastrodonato of the BostonHerald.com that starting has reinvigorated his confidence and could be something he considers for the future.

Rick Porcello pitched well in the final game of the season, but was ultimately undone by his throwing error in the third inning. Nevertheless, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes that Porcello finished the final six weeks of the season strong, and can hopefully carry that performance into next year.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images

A little less attention has been paid to interim manager Torey Lovullo, however, who inherited a difficult situation when John Farrell stepped away from the team after being diagnosed with lymphoma. Few could have blamed Boston for simply limping to the finish line after falling out of playoff contention.

But the Red Sox have done just the opposite since Lovullo stepped in as manager. Over 44 games with Lovullo at the helm, Boston has gone 28-16 with a +81 run differential and climbed into third place in the AL East. The pitching has improved mightily in the last six weeks, and the offense has been among the best in baseball over that time span, averaging just under six runs per game.

Measuring a manager’s impact is notoriously difficult, and even the best need good players to succeed. Lovullo has certainly benefited from a starting rotation that is vastly better than its early-season incarnation, though he has done well handling a bullpen bereft of Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa.

For the Red Sox, the dilemma now becomes what to do about their managerial situation. Dave Dombrowski didn’t hire any of the current coaching staff, and when asked about Farrell’s future earlier in the year, he wasn’t ready commit to anything given the question marks about the manager’s health.

To be sure, the club shouldn’t just push Farrell out the door, especially considering all he’s faced over the last six weeks. Yet Lovullo, too, deserves to be treated fairly, and if he isn’t going to get an opportunity in Boston, he should be free to explore any openings elsewhere.

The big question mark, of course, is whether Farrell will be capable of managing the team next season. For someone going through serious health issues, that’s a huge commitment, and as others have suggested, perhaps a front office position will work better for both sides at this juncture. Farrell does have prior experience in such a role, having previously served as director of player development in Cleveland.

Is Lovullo the right man to step in for Farrell on a permanent basis, though? If you’re the Red Sox, there are plenty of reasons to like what Lovullo offers. He has experience working in Boston and hasn’t appeared at all fazed by the media scrutiny that constantly surrounds the squad (though much of the pressure has diminished since the team fell out of contention).

Lovullo has first-hand knowledge of the organization and has already established working relationships with the decision-makers in the front office.

In addition, he has first-hand knowledge of the organization and has already established working relationships with the decision-makers in the front office. He’s well aware, in other words, just how the Red Sox try to implement their progressive thinking onto the field. And there must also be a certain comfort level he’s established working and succeeding with the current group of players that shouldn’t be taken for granted.

For Dombrowski, who has made few big changes and chosen instead to maintain stability within baseball operations, all of these factors must make Lovullo appealing. Hanging onto Lovullo would be a decision that fits right into how Dombrowski has gone about his business in Boston thus far.

That doesn’t mean he’ll be satisfied without conducting a managerial search of his own, of course. Despite the club’s success over the past couple months, the Red Sox have underperformed on the whole this season, and the coaching staff’s culpability should be assessed. Perhaps Dombrowski decides that a new voice is simply needed for the best interests of the team.

Nevertheless, sticking with Lovullo would eliminate many of the unknowns that come with hiring a new manager you know less about than an internal candidate. Since he took over, Lovullo has succeeded in just about every way a manager’s impact can be measured. From his usage of the pitching staff, to his handling of the clubhouse and his comfort in speaking with the media, he couldn’t have done a better job. Given his multiple years of experience in the organization, he seems more than capable of acting as a bridge between the front office and the players on the field.

Most importantly, the Red Sox have won under Lovullo’s leadership. How much credit he deserves can always be debated, but he could hardly have performed better in an interim capacity.

Maybe this late-season success will prove to be a mirage, and the current confidence in Lovullo’s abilities as a manager similarly misplaced.  Judging by the facts we know, however, he’s shown all the qualities that Boston’s brass should want in the managerial role.

If Dombrowski views the Red Sox’s impressive stretch run as a sign of what’s to come in 2016, he might also realize that Boston currently has a capable manager in the dugout.

Photo by David Butler II/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

In the 33 games over the second half of the season Jackie Bradley Jr. hasn’t just played okay or gotten a little better; he has performed as the best player on the Red Sox and one of the best outfielders in all of baseball.  His WAR of 2.6 over the last 30 days not only leads the Red Sox but all major league outfielders, barely edging out the scorching hot Yoenis Cespedes (2.4). Yesterday versus Toronto JBJ continued his hot run, going 4-4 with a home run and a double, bringing his second half slash line up to a staggering .360/.429/.739 with seven home runs while continuing to impress in the field.  Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe notes that it wasn’t long ago when it was difficult to imagine any scenario where JBJ found himself on the Sox roster heading into next year as many speculated a trade.  Tireless work not only in the off-season but during the year with Chili Davis has certainly paid off, and Bradley finds himself firmly cemented in the Red Sox future, prompting Dave Dombrowski to begin to explore different ways to effectively align the stellar defense of the “BBC” lineup.  I feel that with his arm JBJ remains a difference maker in right field and despite what I said a few weeks ago, the bat may indeed play in a corner position.

***

As we head toward the end of the season, beat writers and columnists around baseball will begin to speculate about off-season trades.  With Dave Dombrowski’s extensive history of re-hauling rosters and selling the farm to do so many analysts are worried that he may gut the farm, leaving a rich system barren.  Aside from the recently signed Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada perhaps no prospect in the system has benefited more from his performance this season than young-right-hander Anderson Espinoza.  At just 17-years-old the Espinoza has climbed from the Dominican Summer League all the way to Single-A Greenville and has drawn comparisons to the great Pedro Martinez.  Alex Speier of The Boston Globe writes just how uncommon this jump is, and how his talent, rather than his age, is likely to dictate a faster rise through the system.  He notes that by making it all the way to Greenville before his 18^th birthday he has become the first Red Sox starter since 1977 to make a start at that level.  When Dombrowski assesses the system and decides who to put on the block and who to keep it seems paramount that Moncada and Espinoza remain untouchable.  With long term solutions in the outfield and the move of Hanley Ramirez to first base the loss of Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers in order to improve the club elsewhere would sting but would be easier to endure.

Quick Hits

In the same game that David Ortiz hit home run number 497 he exited in the fifth inning with a strained calf muscle.  Michael Silverman of the BostonHerald.com takes some time remind us that although this fragile nature should be expected of a soon to be 40-year-old player, the Sox need him more than ever and have no replacement for his offense in sight.

Rick Porcello continues to look like a changed pitcher since returning from his stint on the DL.  Despite giving up three earned runs in yesterday’s contest, he was able to pitch into the eighth inning and stifle a hot Jay’s offense in order to get the win.  Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe writes how getting back to the basics helped transform his season.

There will be no Governor’s Cup chase for the Pawtucket Red Sox this year but that’s okay.  The number of promotions to the big league club has been staggering and left the Paw Sox with little firepower as they limped to the finish with a 59-85 record.  Bill Koch of The Providence Journal writes that despite the depleted core, the team was able to finish the season strong and that the goal is to help the big league club, not to chase championships.

After yesterday’s win, interim manager Torey Lovullo thinks that something special is happening with these Sox and that he won’t rule out a playoff berth. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com touches on this topic and looks at just how far fetched making the playoffs would be and instead sets some realistic goals for the remainder of the season.

Three Good Game Stories

With an impressive Labor Day victory over the first place Toronto Blue Jays there are a lot of positives to draw on with what has suddenly become a likeable ball club.  Ben Buchanan of OverTheMonster.com recaps the action and talks about JBJ’s big day and Rick Porcello’s solid but unspectacular outing.

On Sunday the Red Sox completed a series sweep of the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.  Alec Shirkey and Aaron Lebowitz of MLB.com write about some of the reasons why they were able to sweep, including David Ortiz’s continued success and Eduardo Rodriguez’ excellent start.

Saturday vs the Phillies Wade Miley pitched a complete game and Xander Bogaerts contributed four RBI in the 9-2 victory.  Nicolas Goss of NESN.com covers these events and more in the recap of Saturdays contest.

 Photo by Andy Marlin/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The Red Sox’s 2015 pitching staff has been a disaster. They rank 27^th, 23^rd, and 14^th by ERA, FIP, and DRA, respectively. It is clear that Dave Dombrowski has work to do this offseason to fix this significant flaw. While an established way to build a bullpen remains elusive, having a strong starting rotation can have positive effects on the group that relieves them. Last Friday, Matthew Kory examined options for improving the rotation that could come via trade, while John Tomase of WEEI.com assessed players that will be available to the Sox through free agency. The big names that will be available are Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke, David Price and Jordan Zimmerman. To me, Greinke and Price are the most attractive of this group, but will likely come with the highest price tag, making them that much more difficult to lock down. If one of those marquee players is not signed, Dombrowski could aim to get someone (or a couple of someones) from the second tier, which includes Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samardzija, Doug Fister and Matt Latos. Ben Cherington not signing a true ace for the 2015 team was a focus for much of this season, and certainly in some circles is considered a primary reason for why the team failed this year, but that is not an accurate assessment and as such is not really a valid reason to avoid targeting second- or third-tier guys again. Adding an arm or two to the starting rotation would allow some players who are being considered for a rotation spot to be moved to the bullpen (e.g., Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright), which should improve that aspect of the team without additional financial commitment. It is evident that there are many, many interesting decisions to be made by the Red Sox’s front office – whoever that may include – this offseason to piece together the 2016 roster.

***

One decision regarding the 2016 roster that appears to already be progressing is moving Hanley Ramirez out of left field. As you may have heard, Hanley has been an unmitigated disaster in left field this season. Moving him off the position allows the team to play Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo in the outfield full time, providing a huge upgrade defensively. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe documented how Brian Butterfield and David Ortiz have been working with Hanley at first base. Thus, it appears clear that Hanley will continue his descent down the defensive spectrum for at least another season, before likely taking the designated hitter spot when Ortiz is done. There is considerable risk that comes with playing Hanley at first base, as he now has a defensive impact on more parts of the game than he did while out in left field. I recognize the risk, but I think it is the right decision. I do not mean to suggest that it will be an easy transition, but it should be easier. Having a healthy Hanley – he has reportedly been playing through injury for much of the season – in the lineup everyday is important for the Sox’s success, so hopefully this new move works better than the last one. An interesting part of the decision to move Hanley to first is that it leaves Travis Shaw in limbo for (at least) another season. Since being called up to the big leagues Shaw has done nothing but perform well: .301 TAv in 112 plate appearances (PA), and 1.3 fielding runs above average (FRAA) at first base. Hanley moving to first keeps Shaw without a clear everyday role on the 2016 major league team, but Jason Mastrodonato of BostonHerald.com suggests that Shaw is also an option at third base. However, having Shaw at third requires trading one of Hanley or Pablo Sandoval, which is another can of worms. For next year, Shaw will end up as a bench option on the major league club or spend the season at Pawtucket, and his role will be re-evaluated as part of the plan for the 2017 Red Sox.

Quick Hits

Transitioning to a new team, city, fanbase, and manager can take different periods of time for different players. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe writes that Rick Porcello is a player for whom the acclimation process took longer than expected, and that may have contributed to his early season performance woes.

Through Monday’s game Xander Bogaerts has a .405 slugging and a .090 isolated power, which are both considerably lower than was expected of him, but Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis does not care. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal describes how the team is happy with Xander’s approach at the plate, in which he consistently makes contact and shows a willingness to drive the ball the other way.

Joe Kelly had a really nice month of August, earning a win in each of his six starts, which has Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com comparing Kelly to Pedro Martinez. While Kelly has been better of late, we should probably pump the brakes on him now being an elite starter. In his August starts, Kelly struck out fewer batters than is typical, walked more, induced fewer ground balls, and stranded a really high percentage of baserunners.

As mentioned, it has been a tumultuous month for the Red Sox organization, placing many people in difficult and likely temporary positions. Acting manager Torey Lovullo is one such person. But as Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe notes in his excellent feature of Lovullo, he has handled the change admirably and should be considered this offseason for any available managerial positions.

Three Good Game Stories

The Sox earned a victory over the Mets and Matt Harvey on Friday night, a win that Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes provided one of the few positive memorable moments of the season.

The Red Sox let a sweep of the Mets slip through their fingers on Sunday. Sean Mcadam suggests that poor execution in the series finale brought the Red Sox’s spoiler ways to a temporary halt.

Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox squeaked out a win over the Yankees on Monday night. Rodriguez, given extra rest coming into the start, was not at his best, but Michael Silverman of the BostonHerald.com reminds us that Rodriguez has pitched well against the difficult Yankees’ lineup three times in his young career.

Photo by Jason Getz/USA Today Sports Images