Going Deep

The trade deadline came and went with merely a whimper in Boston. Although rumored to be in on a few major deals (Chris Sale, Carlos Beltran), the Red Sox elected to make just one relatively minor move to add bullpen depth, getting LOOGY Fernando Abad from the Minnesota Twins. While this is not necessarily the standout move that many Red Sox fans wanted, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe details how Abad could be the left-handed specialist that the Red Sox have needed for much of the season. It is also important to note that while the Red Sox were not tremendously active on deadline day, Dave Dombrowski made a number of moves over the last month to improve aspects around the margins of this already competitive team. He added a right-handed utility infielder in Aaron Hill, a switch-hitting utility-infielder (and sort of outfielder) in Michael Martinez, a right-handed bullpen arm in Brad Ziegler, and a left-handed starter in Drew Pomeranz. Sure Chris Sale would have looked nice in a Red Sox uniform, but holding onto Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada — the likely cost of acquiring a player of Sale’s ilk — was the more prudent course of action.

On Tuesday night, we got an initial glimpse of the benefit of Dombroski’s decision to not deal either of the Sox’s top prospects, as Andrew Benintendi has been called up to the big leagues. Benintendi started this season at High-A Salem, was promoted to Double-A Portland in May and will skip Triple-A all together on his route to Boston. Benintendi took a week or two to figure out the Double-A level, but ultimately showed that his standout performance at High-A was not limited to the lower level. Over 263 PA he hit .295/.357/.515, and only struck out six more times (30) than he walked (24). Impressive stuff from the 22-year-old. Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald notes that Benintendi will be the long-end of a left-field platoon with Bryce Brentz, who will play against opposing left-handed starters. And eventually the Brentz part should be played by Chris Young. A side benefit of the Benintendi call-up is that it allows Brock Holt to resume the super-utility role in which he has been most successful over the last two seasons and should help prevent him from getting overly fatigued.

Benintendi will likely take some time to adjust to this next level of pitching, as he has in each of his previous stops on the promotion ladder. Whether he will then take off and make things look easy like he has in the past (à la Dustin Pedroia), or go through an extended period of difficulty before figuring it out (à la Jackie Bradley Jr.) will be an interesting aspect of his development to watch. With this in mind, it is worth noting that Christopher Crawford, senior prospect writer at Baseball Prospectus, suggested that with Benintendi’s four plus tools it is difficult to see him not making an impact immediately.

This is an exciting move for the Red Sox in the immediate term and potentially for years to come.

Quick Hits

For David Price, the 2016 trade deadline was a different experience than the 2014 and 2015 deadlines. In each of the last two seasons, Price had to deal with months of trade rumors and then everything that comes with being traded. Price told Tim Britton of the Providence Journal that he has enjoyed not being churned through the rumor mill and is happy to be staying in Boston. On Thursday night in Anaheim, Price showed what he is capable of on the mound, and, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com notes, offered a beacon of hope for the final two months of the season.

The Red Sox are going to need strength in the second half, as they have a road-heavy schedule that, Alex Speier notes, the likes of which has only been seen once since 1961. Forty-one road games in their final 63 games provides a real test for this team. The Sox posted a 24-21 record (.533 winning percentage) over their first 45 road games; a rate that will need to continue if they want to stay in the thick of the AL East and Wild Card races.

This season has been unquestionably difficult for Clay Buchholz. At times it has appeared as though his tenure with the Red Sox was nearing an end, and on Monday Buchholz was fairly confident he was going to get traded. Reportedly the Red Sox had discussions about moving him but ultimately did not, a decision that Alex Speier suggests could change the broken cycle of acquiring pitchers in Boston. The Red Sox can work to fix pitchers rather than replace them. Brian Bannister, director of pitching analysis for the Red Sox, worked with Buchholz to adjust his release point back to the level it was in 2013, when he was dominant over 16 starts. Along these lines, in his notebook for The Boston Globe, Peter Abraham outlines how Buchholz is asserting himself as a reliever and should help make the Red Sox bullpen a team strength over the final two months of the season.

Speaking of the bullpen, Craig Kimbrel is back. Junichi Tazawa is back. Joe Kelly and Buchholz have been transitioned to bullpen roles. Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross Jr. have shown they are competent. Brad Ziegler and Fernando Abad have been added in trades. The depth is there. Now, as Matt Collins writes at Over the Monster, John Farrell is the key to getting the maximum value possible out of each player. Managing the bullpen is one very visible way a manager can augment his team’s record (see Showalter, Buck in Baltimore). With the relief pieces now in place, Farrell needs to do just that for the Red Sox.

Three Good Game Stories

On Saturday, Drew Pomeranz’s third start in a Red Sox uniform was underwhelming and the offense came up empty with runners in scoring position, resulting in a 5-2 loss to the Angels. In his game story, Rob Bradford writes that Pomeranz felt that, with the exception of a couple of batters, he threw the ball well. Hopefully that feeling translates to better results over his next few starts.

Heading into the ninth inning of Sunday’s game against the Angels, the Red Sox offense was mired in a streak of 16 consecutive scoreless innings. They then erupted for five runs in a wonderful comeback. Peter Abraham has details from the exciting win, including Xander Bogaerts describing the game as a potential turning point.

On Monday the Red Sox’s west coast road trip continued in Seattle, where the team was looking to build on Sunday’s late-inning heroics. Eduardo Rodriguez was excellent over 6.1 innings, Junichi Tazawa and Craig Kimbrel each threw scoreless innings, new-guy Aaron Hill hit a game-tying home run and Mookie Betts delivered the winner. Evan Drellich has more on the game and Mookie’s ongoing emergence as one of the elite players in the game.

Photo by Mike DiNovo/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Through Tuesday’s games the Red Sox’s offense is still the best run-scoring group in baseball. Alas, the thing that has held the Sox from performing at a Cubs-like level is their run prevention. Beyond David Price and breakout star Steven Wright, the starting rotation is a bit of a mess. That is probably too harsh an assessment of Rick Porcello, as his ERA, cFIP and DRA are all below league average and, as Christopher Smith of MassLive.com notes, through 14 starts Porcello has been much better this year than he was last year.

After Porcello is the morass of Eduardo Rodriguez, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens and Roenis Elias. Rodriguez has made four starts since returning from the disabled list and only one of them was good. In his Red Sox notebook, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that the organization has told Rodriguez that his time in the big league rotation is running out. If Rodriguez needs more time at Triple-A to get his mechanics and focus sorted out that is fine. But the question then becomes: who replaces Rodriguez? The fifth spot is already being used as an open tryout from week-to-week with no one doing much to show they should hold the job.

After five good outings in relief, Buchholz got another chance to start on Tuesday night against the White Sox. His first pitch was hit for a home run, his second pitch was hit for a double, and his third pitch, a ball, received cheers from the home crowd. He settled in for five innings, but allowed another home run and did not exactly instill confidence that he can be effective going forward. Buchholz spoke with Alex Speier of The Boston Globe about the difficulties of his 2016 season thus far. Buchholz seems to endlessly be the guy with all kinds of potential who can’t put it together for long periods.

Given that none of Owens, Kelly and Elias are likely to solve the rotation’s current woes, the fix will need to come from outside the organization. With the non-waiver trade deadline a little over a month away it is worth thinking about what the Red Sox will (or should) do to improve the club. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald suggests a number of players for whom the Red Sox should consider trading and does not shy away from big names. Jose Fernandez, Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, and Sonny Gray are examples. To me, Cole and Sale are unlikely to get moved this season, but Fernandez or Gray could be had, albeit at a steep cost in prospects. Despite the cost, at Over the Monster, Marc Normandin reminds us that the Red Sox are going to move some of their prospects eventually as that is part of what prospects are for: chips to fill holes on the major league team. That, and some of the emerging players at the lower levels are blocked by someone on the major league team. The counter point to this idea is given by Bill Ballou at The Providence Journal, who used the organization’s history in trade deadline deals for pitching as a cautionary tale.

Regardless of your thoughts on which prospects should be moved (if at all), there are clear holes to fill: starter, reliever, left fielder, left-handed bench bat. With the Red Sox in contention this season, the next month of trade rumors and proposals should be more fun than it was in the last two seasons when the team was on the selling side of things.

Quick Hits

Steven Wright, a bright spot in the aforementioned struggling rotation, continued his impressive season on Monday night, throwing nine innings of one run ball, lowering his RA9 to 2.84. Wright spoke with the Boston Herald’s Evan Drellich to give an inside look at how he remains a calm, relaxed presence on the team. The story contains interesting insights into Wright’s development as a baseball player, and also how turning to Christianity helped mature his outlook on life.

Rusney Castillo was outrighted off the 40-man roster on Monday, as his continued ineptitude with the bat makes him useless to the major league team. In the Providence Journal, Tim Britton writes that while this move could be read as an effort to correct Castillo’s issues, it is more likely that he is not part of the team’s future plans. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe has more on Castillo’s demotion, focusing on what has turned out to be a disastrous contract.

When David Ortiz announced he would be retiring after the 2016 season I thought it was a curious decision. After seeing other players go through the year-long goodbye party he must have known how making the announcement would change, at the very least, his media commitments for the season. Well, he apparently underestimated the extent of the change and as a result regrets the decision. In an interview with Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes, Ortiz talked about how there are too many people to whom he needs to pay attention and how the demands on his time are affecting his ability to prepare for games. Unfortunately for Red Sox fans, despite his stellar performance thus far, Ortiz is not changing his mind about retiring. He says the daily grind and pain are too much to go through for another year.

While one man’s Red Sox career is coming to an end, another’s is progressing. This past weekend, the organization promoted top-prospect Yoan Moncada from High-A Salem to Double-A Portland. At Bleacher Report, Bill Speros has a great profile of Moncada and the hype that has followed him since he was signed. The hype will only increase with this promotion. For more on what led the Red Sox to promote Moncada up to Portland, check out Alex Speier’s article outlining the baseball/organization perspective on the move in The Boston Globe.

Three Good Game Stories

Monday night’s series opening game against the White Sox was there for the Red Sox taking in the bottom of the ninth, but after loading the bases with nobody out they failed to score. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald has more on the Red Sox failure in the big moment.

On Father’s Day the Red Sox beat the Seattle Mariners behind another great start from David Price. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive.com details the game and how in Price’s last eight starts he has been pitching like the dominant starter for whom the Red Sox paid.

In his coverage of Saturday’s win for WEEI.com, John Tomase noted that Rick Porcello managed his way in-and-out of trouble, ultimately providing a much-needed solid outing from a starter not named David Price or Steven Wright. In support of Porcello, the Sox’s offense scored 6 runs with Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. going yard.

Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

In the last two years the Red Sox have spent a lot of money in the International player market, signing Rusney Castillo to a 7-year, $72.5 million contract and then giving Yoan Moncada a contract with a $31.5 million signing bonus. Castillo, almost 28 years old, is still a raw talent and has struggled mightily in his limited time in the major leagues (26 games, 77 plate appearances), contributing negatively in all phases of the game. He needs to spend more time learning the game and getting regular playing time, but Boston is not the best place for that, which is why he was recently sent back to Pawtucket. Castillo’s struggles led Rob Bradford of WEEI.com to look into how the Red Sox evaluated the Cuban player, and question if they made a mistake in their process, perhaps relying too heavily on workouts rather than live game experience. Allard Baird, Red Sox vice president for player personnel, was the primary person responsible for determining Castillo’s potential value and is quoted in the article as being confident that Rusney will get things sorted out and be a strong player for the Red Sox. But the early returns on Castillo and Moncada, who currently sports a 90 wRC+ in low-A ball and did not impress Keith Law when he scouted him, are troubling for the organization. There is a lot of money tied up in these players, and beyond that, their failures could signal a considerable issue with the team’s process of identifying international talent. With that said, it is way, way too early to panic or go anywhere near labelling these players as busts – in fact, doing so would be madness – but their development from raw talent to productive major league players is important and worth following.

For the better part of the month the Red Sox have hovered around being 10 games under .500, and eightish games back of first place in the American League East. At Baseball Prospectus, the Sox’s playoff odds have dipped below 10%. The reality of all of this is that any hope of the season being a success is likely over, and the front office has some critical decisions to make at the trade deadline. There are many pieces that the Red Sox could trade but many of them will not bring much back (e.g., Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino), are unrealistic (e.g., David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia), or involve overreactions to difficult starts and big contracts (e.g., Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez). One player who could be available and should be intriguing to other teams is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz has been the Red Sox’s best starter this season, which might not be saying much given the comparison group, but stacking him up against the rest of the league shows his value: he has posted the eighth-best FIP among qualified starters in the game. To go with the solid performance, he has a team-friendly contract that includes cheap options for 2016 and 2017. All of this undoubtedly makes him attractive to other teams, but as Alex Speier of The Boston Globe writes, it also makes him a valuable piece for the Red Sox going forward. While things have gone terribly for the team this season, a lot of it has involved players underperforming their projections. The team, as currently constituted, is projected by BP to have the best winning percentage in the division the rest of the way. It is not too much of a stretch to take this as foretelling a much better outcome for a similar group in 2016. Obviously next year’s team will be different from the current group so that is perhaps not the best evidence to support things getting better next year, but the prospect of having Buchholz paired with Eduardo Rodriguez at the front end of the rotation is among the more compelling reasons to think things will improve.

Quick Hits

With the Red Sox demoting Joe Kelly to Triple-A Pawtucket, a spot at the back-end of the rotation was made available. Justin Masterson and Brian Johnson were the most likely candidates to get the role, and the Sox selected Masterson to take the spot the first time it came up on Sunday. Masterson performed well, but CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam thinks that Brian Johnson was the better choice then and for the future.

Speaking of Joe Kelly, he pitched well on Sunday for the PawSox, going seven innings, allowing two runs, five hits, striking out four and only walking one. As Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes, Kelly showed improved command of his fastball and better use of his secondary pitches in the start, which are the primary goals the Red Sox have for him during this important developmental period.

Last week, Mike Napoli struck out in six consecutive plate appearances during the series with the Orioles, and looked bad doing it, glaring at umpires after a number of calls. He has struggled to adapt to the way the strike zone is being called and it is destroying his productivity (.256 TAv is down 38 points from his career norm), but Scott Lauber of the BostonHerald.com writes that despite this fact Napoli has no intention to change his approach.

Rallying to win a game when entering the 9^th inning behind can be part of what makes a team fun to watch; it helps create a sense that the game is never over until the last out is record. It has happened 30 times this year across baseball, but never for the Red Sox, who are 0-38 through the weekend’s games. John Tomase of WEEI.com elaborates on the Red Sox’s stark lack of late game rallies this season.

Three Good Game Stories

Although the Red Sox lost last Thursday’s game to the Orioles thanks to Rodriguez’s struggles, there is still a lot to like in Rodriguez and, as Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com notes in his story, Buchholz reminded the rookie that he has the stuff necessary to succeed at the big league level.

Jason Mastrodonato of the BostonHerald.com writes that Brock Holt, who will be playing second base in Pedroia’s absence, was a huge part of the Red Sox’s extra-inning win on Friday against the Rays.

With questions looming about his place in the rotation, Masterson pitched well in Sunday’s win over the Rays. Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe highlights how Masterson’s time on the disabled list helped him improve his arm strength and re-align his mental approach to the game.

Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images