The White Sox acquired Frazier from the Cincinnati Reds before last season. At the time Frazier was coming off back-to-back 4+ WARP seasons, which was largely a function of his ability to frequently hit baseballs over the fence. Since landing with the Pale Hose, things have not gone as well:

The power has still (mostly) been there, but that is about it. He does not get on-base at an acceptable rate, strikes out a lot (24.1 K%) and his work with the glove, while better so far in 2017, was well below average last season (and for his career). This season has been standout ugly: .195/.289/.350 (.246 TAv). Frazier is on the wrong-side of 30, so his skills are most likely in decline. At this point, he really only provides the one skill (power), so once it goes, all of his value will too. It is tempting to explain away his 2017 numbers with his .217 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but Frazier has tended to run a lower than typical BABIP (.275 for his career) and his current batted ball profile supports, at least to some extent, the really low mark. According to measures from StatCast, it seems like his power is already going, as Frazier is hitting the ball with less authority this year: his 2017 average exit velocity of 86.9 mph is down almost 2 mph from last year, which was down 0.5 mph from the year before that. Couple that with his lower average launch angle, and lower rate of barreling-up the ball and you have a decent explanation for his lack of production this season, and a reasonable case for projecting a lower home run total for him this year. Simply put, he is making more soft contact.

With all that said, it is still early, and you could hypothesize that his rough 2017 numbers are mostly a function of hitting in the cold air of Chicago in April and May, but at this time last year he was hitting .228/.319/.494 with 13 HRs, and his average exit velocity (87.9 mph) and launch angle (20.8) were not far off his end of season numbers. Taken together, the data suggest he is not the player he was a couple of years ago.

Maybe with all that I, or rather Todd Frazier’s recent performance, have convinced you that he is not going to come in and be the savior the Red Sox need at third base. As has been noted on this very website, the Red Sox have been a mess at third base for too long. To remind you how bad it has been lately, here are the numbers that all Red Sox third basemen not named Travis Shaw have posted the last two years:

Not great, fellas. With Pablo Sandoval working his way back from a knee injury, Brock Holt dealing with the frightening aftermath of a concussion, Marco Hernandez done for the year due to a shoulder injury, and the Josh Rutledge/Deven Marrero duo doing their level best, it is hard to see better production than Frazier could offer coming. Unless, of course, they promote top-prospect Rafael Devers.

Devers can flat-out hit. This year at Double-A Portland, he has posted a .320 TAv in 144 plate appearances. The Red Sox have stated they want to give Devers more time to develop, and that is a perfectly reasonable approach to hold. I am generally in favour of not rushing players to the big leagues, since not all 20/21-year olds can blast through the minor leagues to be productive at the major league level like Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and Mookie Betts. Alternatively, keeping Devers in Portland for another few weeks is a service time issue, and the Red Sox want to hold off on promoting him as long as they can in order to limit when he can be eligible for salary arbitration (and eventually free agency). The fuzzy date of the Super Two deadline, which is directly relevant for dictating how much service time a player will accumulate, should pass in two to three weeks. If Devers is still raking for the Sea Dogs by then, Sandoval and Holt are still not ready to play, and the Rutledge/Marrero stopgap has gone as expected, then it would not totally surprise me to see Devers in a Red Sox uniform.

Promoting Devers would be aggressive for sure, but the expected difference between him and Frazier is perhaps smaller than you think. Here are their median PECOTA projections (rest-of-season for Frazier; preseason forecast for Devers):

With this in mind, why give up any talent and/or take on any salary to get Frazier – I assume the White Sox will eat most of the remaining money Frazier is owed – when you have similar expected production in-house? Certainly, there is risk either way. Maybe Devers isn’t ready. Maybe Frazier’s 30+ home run days are behind him. For me, the critical issue is that taking on one of those risks does not involve relinquishing any more talent from an already depleted minor league system. Devers is possibly the future at third base. Give him a chance to show what he can do. What’s more is that if Devers were to be called up at the start of July and turns into a pumpkin over the course of two weeks, the Red Sox will still have time to explore a trade for a third baseman before the non-waiver trade deadline. Or who knows, maybe by then Sandoval and/or Holt could be ready to get back on the field everyday for the stretch run.

You don’t have to go too far back in history to find a Red Sox team that succeeded with ugliness at the hot corner. In 2013, the Red Sox won the division and the World Series while giving most of the playing time at third base to Will Middlebrooks, Jose Iglesias, Brock Holt, Pedro Ciriaco, and Brandon Snyder before some 20-year old kid named Xander Bogaerts came up and took over. This is obviously a cherry-picked example, but it is one that the team can and should follow. Todd Frazier does not make this team much better in the short term (relative to in-house options), but will affect the long term and/or the possibility of other acquisitions due to his cost. Give Devers a chance, and forget about Frazier.

Photo by Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports

Going Deep

The meetings of the general managers takes place this week in Boca Raton, Florida. The meetings will be the first for Dave Dombrowski and Mike Hazen as leaders of the Red Sox front office. While it is unlikely that much player movement will happen during these meetings, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reminds us that they are a gateway to the offseason, an opportunity for club leaders to lay the groundwork for future moves. Right now a lot of attention is being paid to the free agent market; and rightfully so as it holds a deep crop of great players. The Red Sox will probably be in the mix to sign one of the top-flight free agent starters, but what is a lot more fun—and much more difficult—is determining and evaluating trade candidates. To a large extent, Dave Dombrowski’s reputation comes from his trading prowess, so we can expect him to make a trade or two in the coming months. Along these lines, Scott Lauber of BostonHerald.com outlines five teams that he thinks could be good transaction partners for the Red Sox, and Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com takes a stab at identifying specific pitchers for whom the Sox could trade. Regardless, Brian MacPherson writes in the Providence Journal that the trade market presents an early test of Dombrowski’s knowledge of his new farm system, something that Dombrowski is well aware of. Outside of trading Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts I think anything should be considered.

That outlines things from more of a general perspective, but how about some specific speculation on the Red Sox moves this offseason? Two great, Boston-focused writers, Peter Gammons and Chad Finn, do just that in recent articles. Gammons focuses on the rotation, considering options beyond Zack Greinke, who Gammons sees as the top prize. He outlines the difficulty that Boston will have in luring a top-of-the-line starter to pitch in the American League East, its hitter friendly parks, for the next five-to-seven years and, when those pitchers could opt for a team in the National League West and all its pitcher friendly parks. Alas, we get back to considering trade partners. One really intriguing option that Gammons presents is Chris Sale of the White Sox. It is likely wishful thinking, but he outlines how the two teams could line up on a trade that involved Boston sending Blake Swihart and Javier Guerra to the Windy City. Sale would be a huge get for the Red Sox, as Sale is really good (opponent TAv .227), left-handed, only 26-years-old, and signed to a team-friendly contract. Finn states that he has no idea what the Sox are going to do, but again leans toward trades as the best way to acquire pitching. He reminds us that the offense is fine, having scored the fourth most runs in baseball last year without much production from two important pieces. Pitching is the need. Someone like the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman, the Indians’ Carlos Carrasco, or one of the Mets’ fireballers would be solid acquisitions, but the prices in Queens are likely too high. Finn’s primary caveat for any trade is, like I suggested above, Betts and Bogaerts should be untouchable.

Quick Hits

Perhaps the most glaring part of the roster that is in need of correction is the bullpen. However, fixing said bullpen is a complicated matter. Re-positioning players currently in the organization like Matt Barnes, who the Sox have ticketed for relief duty in 2016, is one approach, but Tim Britton of the Providence Journal shows there are plenty of relief options outside the organization that should be explored.

The decision to move Hanley Ramirez to first base affects the immediate big league future of Travis Shaw, who in the last two months of the season showed that he has the potential to be a productive major league first baseman. Ian Browne of MLB.com reports that Shaw is hoping versatility will get him regular playing time. He has been playing third base in winter ball in Puerto Rico, and could even play some games in the outfield if it means getting into the lineup.

Christian Vasquez is rehabbing from the Tommy John surgery that derailed his 2015 season by playing winter ball in Puerto Rico. He is being used exclusively as a designated hitter and while he is performing well, Scott Lauber of BostonHerald.com writes that, because he is not performing full catching duties, his readiness for the coming season won’t be certain until the Spring.

While much remains to be determined with the Red Sox roster for the 2016 season, the future appears bright, as the farm system is loaded with talent. As mentioned above, over the next few months many of these up-and-coming players will be bandied about in trade rumours. Bryce Brentz for Clayton Kershaw? Sure, I’d consider it. If you are wondering about where the players who are getting mentioned rank within the organization, check out the consensus Top-60 that the staff at Sox Prospects released last Friday.

According to a report from CBSSports.com, a couple of former Red Sox players are frontrunners to be the next manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both Dave Roberts, of 2004 ALCS Game 4 stolen base fame, and Gabe Kapler, who played in Boston from 2003 to 2006, have given impressive interviews in their chance to take the reigns in Chavez Ravine.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images