But who is the culprit? Matthew Kory took a look at Boston’s low power trends in April and noted the losses of both David Ortiz and Travis Shaw, two productive power bats. He also brought up the early season flu bug that went through the Red Sox clubhouse and impacted some power producers. It was tough to grab a large enough sample in April to conclude that the Red Sox simply didn’t hit for much power anymore. But 95 games into the season, that notion is coming into fruition.

The logical assumption would blame Boston’s power drop off on the losses of Ortiz and Shaw, who combined for 54 homers in 2016. But if we take a look at Boston’s consistent starting hitters from both 2016 and 2017, the decline in individual power numbers is evident.

As shown above, this group of players is underperforming this season against its 2016 ISO averages. Mookie Betts is on track to almost exactly match his 2016 home run total, while Hanley Ramirez is set to fall a couple of homers short. Bradley missed 12 games earlier this season, setting him back a bit, but PECOTA projects him to finish six homers shy of his 2016 total.

That trio doesn’t pop off the page as power letdowns, but Boston’s middle infield pair has sharply declined its power output. Neither Pedroia nor Bogaerts have come close to amounting to even a third of their respective 2016 home run totals. I took a look at some Statcast data to see if something has changed.

Pedroia is an interesting case, because his fly ball rate has actually risen from 26.8 percent in 2016 to 31.3 percent this season. But his infield fly ball percentage has seen a corresponding uptick. As evident above, Pedroia was hitting many more line drives in 2016. The ultimate killer is his HR/FB rate, which has split in half this season. The downfall of Pedroia’s HR/FB ratio translates over to Xander Bogaerts’ batted ball data as well. His ratio is down from 11.4 percent in 2016 to 7.4 percent in 2017.

Bogaerts is loading up on ground balls, which accumulate nearly 50 percent of his batted balls. His fly ball rate is down five percent from 2016, and his hard contact rate is hovering just around 30 percent. That being said, Bogaerts and Pedroia still hold batting averages around .300 and TAv’s around .280. After all, in scouring the leaderboards, both players land among the top 15 singles hitters.

Overall, the combination of individual numbers from Boston’s core and the loss of two power producers leads to an intriguing case. The Red Sox have enough weapons on offense to produce MLB’s eighth best VORP (186.6), but they can’t seem to put the ball over the fence.

Another interesting point is the factor of Fenway Park, a widely recognized bandbox for both righties and lefties. Baseball Prospectus runs a stat called Ballpark Factor (BPF), which is centered around 100, with numbers above and below representing the percentage that run-scoring was increased by the mix of parks a team has batted in. The Red Sox consistently rank in the top 10 of this list. In 2016, Boston ranked first with a 112 BPF. This season, they rank 16th with a 100 BPF, which notes that the Red Sox’s run production hasn’t increased nor decreased because they play at Fenway.

The lack of power hasn’t killed them to this point, but come playoff time, the Sox will inevitably be facing better pitching. Time will tell whether Boston can turn around its power numbers, but a new third baseman would almost certainly lead the Red Sox in that direction.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

With Sandoval on the DL and jack of all trades, master of none Brock Holt still experiencing symptoms of vertigo, Rule 5 draft pick Rutledge was at third base yesterday. He was starting because utility infielder Marco Hernandez has a fielding percentage that starts with an eight. *Barely* starts with an eight. But Hernandez isn’t a third baseman. He’s a shortstop with some time spent at second base. Rutledge played a bit of third too, and is a fine fill-in for a few innings, but he’s not a third baseman either. In six seasons in the majors he’s had 50 chances at third base. Compare that to over 1,000 combined at shortstop and second. He’s in Hernandez’s boat. He’s a player being asked to do something he’s not capable of doing. There is a saying you’ve likely heard. Put players in position to succeed. So far, at third base, the Red Sox have done the opposite. They have put their players in position to fail.

So don’t be tempted to blame Hernandez, or for that matter, Rutledge, whose error yesterday shows only a glimpse of what is in store for the Red Sox should he continue at the position. They are merely doing what was asked of them. No, it’s not their fault. It’s the Red Sox fault.

Of course this all comes back to the front office. It goes deeper than Dave Dombrowski too. The Red Sox haven’t had a competent regular third baseman for more than a season in almost a decade now, so the fault for that goes well beyond the team president who took over just over a season ago. This is on Ben Cherington, and even Theo Epstein before him. But, man, Dave Dombrowski did his part here as well and since he’s the one in charge now, it bears looking at what he’s done.

Just this past off-season Dombrowski dealt 2016 starting third baseman Travis Shaw to the Brewers along with Mauricio Dubon (and Josh Pennington) for reliever Tyler Thornburg. Thornburg is injured and hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Red Sox. Shaw is hitting .263/.302/.545. Then Dombrowski traded Yoan Moncada (along with others) for Chris Sale. Moncada had moved to third base while in the Boston system, but the White Sox have since moved him back to his preferred position of second base. Still, for the Red Sox, Moncada represented depth at third. So did Shaw, for that matter.

The organization has to have a plan. Is the plan to start Pablo Sandoval at third base? Okay, that makes sense given the financial obligations and the player’s history, but who can back him up if he struggles or gets hurt?

The issue isn’t should the Red Sox have traded for Chris Sale or not. Who could make that argument and not look like a jackass? The point here is less specific, more abstract. The organization has to have a plan. Is the plan to start Pablo Sandoval at third base? Okay, that makes sense given the financial obligations and the player’s history, but who can back him up if he struggles or gets hurt? This is a guy who just missed almost an entire season and before that wasn’t hitting enough or fielding well enough to hold down a major league job. There has to be a backup plan. Travis Shaw fits that mold perfectly, but he was traded.

That’s not to say Travis Shaw shouldn’t have been traded. Of course you can trade Shaw (though I didn’t care for it then and that deal looks like crap now), but if you do you have to get someone back who can fill that same role for the organization, if not in that deal, then in the next, because without Shaw, that depth does not exist in the Red Sox organization. There isn’t anyone in Triple-A who can step in and not hurt the major league team without Shaw.

Instead, Dombrowski went further in dealing Moncada. Again, this isn’t to say you can’t trade Moncada. You can! You just have to be sure the organization can handle his loss. You have to cover for whatever hole he leaves behind. The Red Sox and Dombrowski didn’t do it, Sandoval predictably got hurt, and now we have the current predicament.

I said earlier that this wasn’t all on Dombrowski, that it was in some part on Cherington as well. Now, a few paragraphs later, I’m rethinking my position on that. Cherington left the organization with Sandoval, Shaw (drafted under Epstein, but not traded by Cherington), and Moncada. That’s not perfect, but it’s something. It’s capable of being improved on, but there is some competent depth at the position. After dealing both Shaw and Moncada and not replacing them with anyone, there is no depth at the position. So maybe this is all on Dombrowski.

To me it comes back to a few things. Not caring enough about organizational depth is one, but over-valuing relievers is another. Of all the moves that Dombrowski has made, perhaps his most polarizing, and from a statistical standpoint most damaging, have been his deals for relievers. He has made three big deals specifically for relievers. Those deals have cost the Red Sox Dubon, Shaw, Pennington, Wade Miley, Logan Allen, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Manny Margot. That’s a whole lot of talent (and even more if you look at what Miley is doing this season in Baltimore), and so far the Red Sox have received one season of good (not great) relief pitching from Kimbrel. That’s it. It’s been stated time and again that relievers are maybe the most volatile of players, and making big deals for relievers is a time-tested way to ruin your franchise. That’s not to say it never works. The Indians are probably fine with the Andrew Miller deal, for example, even almost a year later. But deals like Miller’s are the exception to the rule. Far more common are deals like the Thornburg deal. It’s possible that Thornburg could return and be amazing, but even if he does, it’s highly unlikely he’ll approach the value the Red Sox sent off to get him. Also, even if he does, look what the deal did to Boston’s depth at third base. Look at who they’re running out there every day. Thornburg better be good.

Of all those now gone players, only Shaw is a full time third baseman, but that’s less the point. Sure, Shaw would be incredibly useful to the Red Sox right now, far more so than Thornburg, but imagine having Margot, or Asuaje, or even Allen. Those guys could be traded to bring in someone so the Red Sox don’t have to keep running Rutledge or Hernandez, or if he gets better, Holt, out to positions they shouldn’t be playing. Instead of getting the biggest shiniest name on the market, perhaps the organization should put some stock in depth. It’s what got them through last season when Sandoval was lost early to season-ending surgery. It’s what allowed the organization to survive the loss of starting catcher Christian Vazquez last season. It’s also what they lacked in left field in 2016, causing them to move Blake Swihart left where he got hurt and was lost for the year.

Depth is important. Injuries happen. Starters don’t always stay on the field. You have to be able to cover for them without hurting yourself badly in the process. That’s the Red Sox biggest problem at third base. It’s not that their starter is hurt and can’t play. It’s that they have nobody else to step in for him. Like all depth-related issues, it was a little problem, but now it’s a big one.

Photo by John E. Sokolowski – USA TODAY Sports

The 2016 Red Sox featured three guys with 30 or more homers and seven with 15 or more. Of those seven, two are gone.

One possible answer is roster turnover. The 2016 Red Sox featured three guys with 30 or more homers and seven with 15 or more. Of those seven, two are gone. David Ortiz retired and the Red Sox dealt Travis Shaw to Milwaukee because every team needs to meet MLB’s quota for injured relievers. That still leaves five of the guys on the roster though. Injuries and the flu have been prominently featured during the beginning of the season, so perhaps they’re at least partly responsible. Jackie Bradley has been hurt and has only played in four games, so his bat missing from the lineup is significant. That still leaves two 30 homer guys in Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts and two other guys with significant power in Dustin Pedroia (15 homers in 2016) and Xander Bogaerts (21). Betts missed time with the flu as did Ramirez and though it wasn’t announced I wouldn’t doubt some players who didn’t miss time were feeling the illness as well. My guess is this is at least partly responsible, but clearly that doesn’t answer the whole question. 

We’re so early in the season that running into a few hot pitchers can also tip the numbers. So far the Red Sox have faced a number of very good starters, from Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon of the Pirates, to Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann of the Tigers, to any starter for the Rays, and yesterday, Marco Estrada and his amazing changeup of doom. Still, that’s only something to tip the numbers, not ruin them by itself.

The next step is to look at the batted ball data. If you think about it, there are really three requirements that have to be met to create a home run. First, the ball has to be hit in the air, a fly ball, but, secondly, it can’t be an infield fly ball. Third, it must be hit hard. If the Red Sox haven’t been hitting the ball hard, well, that’s probably our answer, and that that likely backs up the flu theory as well. So going to the batted ball data, FanGraphs puts batted ball velocity into three buckets: soft, medium, and hard. Sort by “hard” and you’ll find the team with the second most hard hit balls in baseball is your Boston Red Sox, at 41.4 percent. So they’re hitting the ball hard, that solves one requirement. How about the other two? Here’s where we get into some problems. The Red Sox have hit fly balls 32.6 percent of the time they’ve put the ball in play. For context, that’s 23rd in baseball. Last year it would’ve been 26th. Not hitting the ball in the air isn’t necessarily a problem, more ground balls and line drives go for hits than fly balls, but line drives and fly balls don’t go for home runs. 

The other, possibly more problematic aspect of this is that of those fly balls, of the 32.6 percent, 10.8 percent are infield flies. Infield flies never go for home runs, so we’re really talking about only 21.8 percent of balls in play even have a chance to fly over the wall. That’s pretty low. Thing is though, last season the Red Sox had a 34.8 percent fly ball percentage and an 11.2 percent infield fly ball percentage, meaning their overall numbers weren’t that different than they are now. 

The difference is that last year 12.8 percent of all fly balls hit in baseball went over the wall, or about one in every eight fly balls. This year, right now, the Red Sox are at five percent, or one in every 20 fly balls. Last year’s Red Sox hit a homer on 13.2 percent of their fly balls. The 2015 team did it 10.9 percent of the time. That’s roughly the area that’s to be expected, and this year’s Red Sox will, over time, likely build towards a number in that area. The five percent they’re at now is mostly bad luck, hitting the ball to the deepest part of a park, crunching one off the Monster, what have you.

In the end, the Red Sox are missing Ortiz and Shaw, many of their best power hitters have been stricken with the flu, an illness that tends to sap strength and takes significant time to fully recover from, Bradley has been hurt, and they’ve been unlucky when it comes to batted balls. They’ll hit more homers even if their batted ball profile doesn’t change at all, but it’s not entirely bad luck. Injuries, good pitching, and possibly the lack of fly balls to the outfield have combined to hold them down too. 

It should be said however, that the cold of April is traditionally a time when home runs are down anyway. The coming hot summer air should help a few more of Red Sox flies sneak over the wall, but even so, the possibility exists that this Red Sox roster might be different offensively than we expected coming into the season. The slugging group that was swept out of the playoffs last season may have been replaced with a more singles- and doubles-dependent type of offense. That’s not bad, just different. After all, there are many ways to score runs in baseball, even without homers.

Photo by Bob DeChiara – USA TODAY Sports

Before we start, I’d be remiss not to mention that this was originally supposed to be about Travis Shaw. He’s in Milwaukee now via That Other Trade on the day Chris Sale was acquired. So adios, Travis Shaw. What a fun April and May you had. Here’s Shaw hitting a 450 foot home run off Chris Archer.

And now, take one more moment to let it sink in that Chris Sale is on the Red Sox. He’ll join Rick Porcello and David Price at the top of the Red Sox rotation, as well as on at least one Sports Illustrated cover where none of them smile. Dave Dombrowski’s quest to torch every minor league system he inherits continued at the Winter Meetings this year, but that was always 1.) a luxury the Red Sox could afford and 2.) what was going to happen when Dombrowski came aboard. Andrew Benintendi, Blake Swihart and Eduardo Rodriguez are all still on the team. The team also kept Rafael Devers, who could be in the Majors sooner than later and probably even sooner than that if Pablo Sandoval struggles out of the gate.

What Went Right in 2016

Most things! Chris Sale continued to be the incredibly talented pitcher he’s been throughout his career. He managed to throw the most innings (226.2) of any season in his career, surpassing 220 for the first time ever. He was essentially a seven-win player, posting his best WARP (6.9) since 2013, the only season where it was higher. He had a 77 cFIP, tied for third best in baseball behind Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard and Chris Archer. His 3.42 FIP was good for 9th best (one below Rick Porcello, shouts to Rick Porcello). He did all this while throwing more innings than only three starters: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and David Price. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting for 2016 after finishing 6th in 2012, 5th in 2013, 3rd in 2014 and 4th in 2015.  He is good.

What Went Wrong in 2016

This is where it gets tricky. If you look at a lot of Sale’s numbers compared to 2015, there are some red flags, although calling them “red flags” seems overdramatic. His K/9 dropped two and a half points, from 11.8 to 9.3. A big reason? Sale stopped using his changeup. In 2015, Sale threw his change up 28 percent of the time. It was a pitch that generated the most whiffs (38.96%) of any of the four he threw, according to Brooks Baseball. Batters only hit .239 against it, second best to his slider.

In 2016, however, Sale only threw his change up 14 percent of the time. He essentially all but stopped using it against lefties (18 percent to two percent) and only threw it about half as often to righties (30 percent to 16 percent) . He also threw it for a strike seven percent less often than in 2015. It’s certainly not the whole picture, but going away from one of his most effective strikeout pitches might start to explain the drop.

And about that 3.42 FIP he had – it was actually up a considerable margin from 2015, when Sale posted a 2.70 FIP. And that cFIP? Up 10 points from 2015 and 13 points from 2014. A lot of stories about the White Sox catchers’ inability to frame pitches have popped up, and there seems to be a general consensus that Sale’s numbers will benefit from a better defensive staff in Boston. Is there reason to be concerned that Sale is striking people out less while his contact numbers go up? Or is it just some natural regression from insane numbers to still pretty great ones? Even if Sale is more 2016 than 2015 this season, the Red Sox will have one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’ll also be making $9.6 million, which feels legitimately criminal.

Also, Sale got kicked out of his own clubhouse on a day he was supposed to pitch for tearing up a bunch of White Sox jerseys with a pair of scissors. That is something that went wrong in 2016.

What to Expect in 2017

Sale is as good a bet as any to continue his consistently dominant play. There’s a small minority who point to his career-high innings load coupled with a strenuous throwing motion as a reason to proceed with caution, although that certainly feels like nitpicking. Sale is younger than Price, Porcello, Steven Wright, Clay Buchholz and Drew Pomeranz. In fact, he’s closer in age to 23-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez than he is to Buchholz and Wright. He’ll only be entering his seventh season when he joins the Sox for Spring Training in February. Sox fans can expect 200 innings of Cy Young-caliber pitching sandwiched between starts from Rick Porcello and Daivd Price. They can also expect the Chris-Sale-Hates-Retro-Jersey jokes to go well into August, at least.

Photo by Rick Osentoski/USA Today Sports Images

Acquired RHP Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for IF-L Travis Shaw, IF-R Mauricio Dubon, and RHP Josh Pennington. [12/6]

If you were casually watching the playoffs–had it on in the background while cooking dinner, fighting with your kids about homework, or waiting on hold with the Canadian embassy–you still probably picked out the most salient takeaway: relievers are important. The newish, more gutsy Red Sox front office, led by Dave Dombrowski and, four empty rungs down, probably some other people, noticed this too. We know because Dombrowski doesn’t do deceit, but we also know because he just traded for Thornburg.

Thornburg is the eighth-inning piece the Red Sox thought they had traded for last season when they got right-hander Carson Smith from the Mariners. Then Smith needed Tommy Johnsurgery and the Red Sox were right back where they were before the deal. They pieced things together last season, but when the offseason began Dombrowski stated the team needed to get an eighth-inning reliever. Remember I said Dombrowski doesn’t do deceit? This is that reliever.

Read the rest for free at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Gary A. Vazquez/USA Today Sports Images

Given all that, you can see that this three-gamer in Toronto is pretty important. We here at BP Boston aren’t typically in the habit of previewing every series. Maybe we should be, but the season is so long and there are only so many John Farrell jokes and on-pace-for stats one person can legally be subjected to over a six-month span. So we mostly don’t. But this! This is an exception, because this is very important. It’s not the playoffs, but if you wanted to look at the next 23 games as a series between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees, you wouldn’t be all that wrong. So, with that out of the way, hello. I’m Matt and together we’re going to preview the heck out of this series.

SERIES NOTES

1. The Blue Jays starters have the fourth-best ERA in baseball this season and the best in the American League. The Red Sox are tenth on that list.

2. Over the past 30 days, Red Sox starters have the second-best ERA in baseball and the best in the American League. The Blue Jays are 15th on that list.

3. Make some sense out of points 1 and 2, please. I double dog dare you.

4. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is at it again, and by “it” I mean being incredibly good. Has he been better than Red Sox MVP hopeful Mookie Betts? By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Betts has been better.

5. By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Mike Trout has been better than Betts though so, please people, I love Mookie Betts too, but can we give the best player in baseball the best player award?

6. Who is the starting third baseman for the Red Sox? Yoan Moncada was a 21-year-old prospect in Double-A, then he was the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox, and now he’s a 21-year-old prospect with a lousy albeit small batting record and a seat on the bench. For now it looks like Travis Shaw’s job to lose.

7. Can Shaw lose it again? Considering his body of work you’d sure think so, but where does Farrell go now? Moncada again? Maybe for a short period of time but you have to think Farrell will try harder to keep both feet out of his mouth by declaring the rookie the unquestioned starter again. Maybe Aaron Hill has something left in the tank? Maybe Aaron Hill has a tank! That could be helpful.

8. The Red Sox bullpen has been mediocre this year and downright bad recently but consider: the return of Koji from the DL (one perfect inning pitched, two strikeouts) and the new and improved Joe Kelly (three IP, five hits, no runs, five strikeouts, no walks) might just be the keys to… drat. I almost made it through that sentence with a straight face.

9. It’s true Koji and probably Kelly to a lesser extent could help the bullpen, but that’s mostly because they couldn’t make it worse. There’s no harm in flicking lit matches at your neighbor’s house but if it’s already engulfed in flames. Flick all you want.

10. The Jays bullpen has been about as lousy as Boston’s. The differences seem to be three:

    1. The Red Sox pen has been hurt by walks

    2. The Blue Jays pen has been hurt by home runs

    3. Roberto Osuna, who has given up seven homers in 60 innings, has been better than Craig Kimbrel, who has walked 22 in 44.1 innings.

    4. You see what I’m saying here.

11. Both teams crush the snot out of the ball.

12. The Red Sox crush more snot out of more balls, making them better snot-crushers out of balls. Their certificate is surely in the mail.

GAME 1: Rick Porcello vs. Marco Estrada

1. You have to go back to July 24 to find the last time Rick Porcello gave up four or more runs in a start. Before that, you have to back to June 23. So, fun with arbitrary endpoints: since June 24, Rick Porcello has given up three or fewer runs in every start except one.

2. Marco Estrada was the pitching surprise of last season. He had one of the lowest BABIPs in baseball history and then he started pulling the same garbage again this season. But then the second half of the season rolled around and, despite most of his underlying numbers looking the same, Estrada’s ERA has shot up from below three to 5.00. The baseball gods do exist and they find Marco Estrada’s precious ERA hilarious.

3. David Ortiz will not be pitching today, but he will be back in the lineup for the first time since last Sunday. Big Papi has 23 games left and, maybe, hopefully a few more if the Sox can win a few more of those 23 than they lose. Don’t think Big Papi doesn’t know that. I’d suggest buckling that safety belt.

GAME 2: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. J.A. Hap

1. What is Eduardo Rodriguez? Here are his runs allowed for all his starts dating back to July 27: 3, 1, 3, 1, 0, 5, 0. He’s either been amazing (two shutouts, one cut short by injury), very good (multiple one run starts), or a mess. In the first of those three run performances he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, and in the second he didn’t make it out of the fourth. Then he carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning last start. I suppose this is what promise looks like up close. If he gets on a roll, oh gosh, baseball would need to watch the heck out.

2. Happ is, as far as I can tell, Estrada. He’s been very good, much better in fact, than anyone had a right to expect. But, like Estrada, over the past month he’s come apart a little bit, mostly due to giving up home runs.

3. There’s a narrative out there that the Red Sox aren’t as good against left-handers, which would seem to give an advantage to Happ, but it’s not true. The Red Sox have an .820 OPS against right-handers and an .811 OPS against left-handers. Not that OPS is the greatest statistic but it paints the picture just fine.

4. At this point Red Sox will have faced two of Toronto’s best three starters and have a very real shot at winning both games.

GAME 3: Clay Buchholz vs. Aaron Sanchez

1. This is the game where Toronto has the clear advantage in the pitching matchup. Sanchez hasn’t been as dominant of late but he’s been almost as effective. The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks have come up, both of which could be a result of him plowing past 170 innings (he’s two thirds short), about 35 beyond his career high. The Jays have been toying with the idea of shutting Sanchez down, moving to a six-man rotation, skipping his starts, and/or sending him to outer space, all with the intent of limiting his innings. Problem is, they’re in a dogfight for the AL East and indeed the playoffs and they need this guy.

2. Clay Buchholz stars in, As The World Turns. Buchholz went from sure second starter to back end of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the bullpen guy, to vital rotation piece. The latest incarnation of The Clay is indebted to to Steven Wright’s injured shoulder for the opportunity, but his non-injured shoulder for seizing it. In his last three starts, Buchholz has pitched 19 innings, given up three runs, struck out 18, and walked two. He’s pitching like the guy he was supposed to be at the beginning of the year. Remember Derek Lowe’s 2004 season? How weird would that be?

The totality of the series is going to result in one of three things: the Blue Jays sweeping and taking a two game lead over Boston, the Red Sox sweeping and taking a four game lead over Toronto, or a split of some sort keeping things pretty close. In fact, the Red Sox are in a very good position because by winning just one of these, they insulate themselves from losing a share of first place.

Of course, they could do much better than that. We’ve waited all year for this team to realize its potential and kick things into a higher gear. This is as good an opportunity as they’ve yet seen. This year’s Red Sox have specialized in squandering good opportunities but they still have a few chances left. The season isn’t over yet.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Last time I checked in with Read Sox, we were welcoming Andrew Benintendi to the majors by appreciating his success and interviewing a host of the outfielder’s relatives. Now, Benintendi is hurt and the new top prospect du jour is Yoan Moncada. And, while he has a few hits in the bigs under his belt, the theme in analysis of the young third baseman has been his proficiency to not hit baseballs he swings at. In his past two games, Moncada has made seven at-bats and has struck out in — oof — all seven of them. This rather unsustainable K-rate has been the subject of much fodder on the Boston-based interwebs.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe checked in with this analysis of Moncada, comparing his swing-and-miss to the strikeout frequency of other recent Red Sox prospects. The Globe’s Nick Cafardo wrote about the young Cuban as a work in progress, albeit a very good one. Rob Bradford of WEEI took a similar tack, discussing the ups-and-downs that have befallen the first week of Moncada’s major-league career. Bradford poses an interesting question: can the Red Sox, in the midst of such a tight division race, afford to be patient as Moncada adjusts to a new level of play? ESPN’s Scott Lauber says the answer is no, and that the team needs to pump the brakes with their newest and youngest third baseman.

While Moncada has been at least slightly disappointing in a miniscule sample size, it’s certainly worth noting that this result was not entirely unforeseen. Of the two wunderkids in the Sox farm system, Andrew Benintendi was viewed all season as the one more prepared for the jump to the bigs. Moncada sat out a full season after defecting from Cuba and had less than a year-and-a-half of experience in the minors before his call-up. Meanwhile, Benintendi played two years of high-level college ball in the SEC, and did so very well, before being drafted and working through the team’s system.

So far, Moncada has struck out in over half of his at-bats (10 out of 18) and opposing pitchers seem to have picked up on his trouble with off-speed pitches. Per Baseball Info Solutions via FanGraphs, Moncada has been thrown hard pitches just 56.6 percent of the time (with cutters included). He has been on the receiving end of sliders and curves in a combined 30.2 percent of pitches. Including changeups, almost half of the pitches coming his way have been off-speed, and the results have been less than thrilling; his whiff rate on breaking pitches is more than double that on fastballs thus far.

Moncada will get better and will learn how to hit off-speed pitches. All of these statistics should be taken with an industrial-sized pile of salt because of the minuscule sample size. And regardless, Moncada’s electrifying athleticism and speed merit him a spot on the roster both now and if the Red Sox make the postseason. It’s worth noting that temporarily deposed (and now maybe reinstated?) third baseman Travis Shaw has played for the past week like a man trying to keep his job. Shaw added a homer and three RBIs in a 7-2 win over San Diego on Wednesday night with Moncada mercifully given the day off after the seven straight punchouts. Shaw’s viability as an everyday third baseman will have a lot of bearing on Moncada’s playing time as long the growing pains continue for the 21-year-old. And right now, hitting 8-for-17 with a pair of dingers and nine RBI in his past five games, Shaw looks more than viable.

In the past, with the team in contention, the Sox have been the beneficiaries of top prospects who perform admirably under the bright lights of an October pennant race. Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007 and Xander Bogaerts in 2013 were called up and performed immediately. So the less-than-perfect start for Moncada is disappointing in the context of a few who came before him.

Sox fans may have to settle for just one top prospect (hopefully) lighting it up down the stretch; Andrew Benintendi has begun fielding fly balls and seems to be making good progress in returning from his knee injury.

Quick Hits

A lot of Red Sox fans don’t really like Clay Buchholz. Shocking, I know. For much of his Fenway career, the right-hander has infuriated the Faithful, alternately performing well but getting hurt and, uh, performing less than well. He has a team option at $13 million for 2017 that, in June, seemed like a hilariously improbable proposition. Now, well, we’re reading and writing about how smart and inevitable exercising that option seems to be, like this article by Ben Buchanan of Over the Monster. Buchholz has ma– I’m about to compliment Clay Buchholz, please send aid immediately — Buchholz has made the difficult shift to and from the bullpen very comfortably, and now boasts a 2.05 ERA in his past six outings, three of them starts. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, Buchholz figures to play an important role on this team down the stretch. Everyone strap in.

Maybe it wasn’t a great idea for Steven Wright to be used as a pinch-runner. Maybe Steven Wright should be able to take a lead off second base without hurting his shoulder and jeopardizing his season. Maybe I get some twisted satisfaction out of blaming John Farrell for things. Maybe these are all true statements. Cafardo wrote about Wright’s injury, and the opportunity it afforded Buchholz to get back into the Red Sox rotation.

David Ortiz commented recently on Donald Trump’s proposed immigration policy, saying “it’s not fair” to immigrants. This, predictably, has gotten picked up by media outlets around the country and made a multitude of headlines. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald commended Ortiz for making his opinion known, and implored athletes to do so more often.

Photo by Gary A. Vazquez/USA Today Sports Images

Then there’s Travis Shaw. As a 26-year-old less than a year removed from his major-league debut, Shaw was never part of that franchise-future discussion. That started to change when he beat out Pablo Sandoval for the starting job at third base in spring training and got off to a hot start at the plate. Shaw slashed .327/.396/.565 over the first 40 games of the season and added six home runs. It was enough to put him in the early All-Star discussion.

That discussion has since flipped again. Shaw has slashed .207/.273/.368 with eight home runs in the games that have followed, bringing his true average down to .261 for the season. That number is good for 11th on the Red Sox if you include Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young. That makes him the worst-hitting everyday player on the team. He also has the 10th-worst slugging percentage (.442) among AL third basemen. His numbers have been progressively worse with each month, and August has been no exception as he’s slashed .156/.255/.311 and has driven in a whopping four runs over 17 games. Fortunately for Shaw and the Red Sox, the rest of the lineup has awoken and helped pick up that slack.

It’s not as if Shaw has suddenly become a bad player. He’s simply come back to earth after a scorching start to the season. Overall, he’s been the player we thought he was – an average hitter with a little bit of power. For all of Shaw’s faults, especially of late, he is a power-hitting threat in the bottom of the lineup that not a lot of teams have, even if his 14 home runs are a little underwhelming given the way he started out the year.

That power trip has come back to bite him, however. Shaw may be swinging for the fences, but he’s missing a heck of a lot more. His strikeout rate sits at 24.8 percent and he’s been whiffing more with each month. He hasn’t quite had the power to compensate for it either as his line drive and fly ball rates have dipped in August. The visuals below helped illustrate the latter two points.

Then there’s the nightmare he’s been against lefties. He’s slashing .196/.242/.391 against southpaws this season, making him enough of a liability that he’s often left out of the lineup in favor of Aaron Hill with a left-handed starter on the mound.

Now that I’ve spent the last few paragraphs telling you how Shaw has sucked, let me offer you a little perspective. On Aug. 22, 2015, Sandoval was the Red Sox’s starting third baseman. He hit second in the lineup that day. The Sox lost to the Royals and were on their way to a last-place finish. Sandoval, as we all know, had an awful debut season with the Red Sox. He was a $95 million man with a .245/.292/.366 slash line and was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball, posting a -11 DRS and -21.9 UZR/150. Then he showed up to spring training in March overweight and careless enough to make us all sympathize with Hanley Ramirez. Shaw has been a far cry from that mess.

The fact that Shaw is the Red Sox’s worst everyday player right now tells you just how far this team has come in the last year. If this were last year, Shaw’s TAv would put him right in the middle of the pack with the rest of the team. That’s not bad for a bottom-of-the-order third baseman. Think about it. Sandoval was the starting third baseman and batting in the middle of the order a year ago. Shaw has been a drastic improvement in all categories.

If you know me, I like to look in hindsight. It’s a fun way to judge myself and others, and occasionally (very, very, very occasionally) feel like I knew what I was talking about. In hindsight, the Red Sox knew what they were doing when they chose Shaw as the Opening Day starting third baseman over Sandoval. They replaced a known player who was downright terrible a year ago for someone who is an ok hitter and offers a little bit of versatility. It certainly didn’t turn into a make-or-break move, but the results speak for themselves. Shaw may not be anything special, but his performance this season is something to feel pretty good about given where the Red Sox were at third base a year ago. It’s thoughts like this that make you realize things aren’t so bad for the Red Sox right now.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Please Hanley, keep hurtin’ them. In the bottom of the third inning, with the Sox trailing 2-0, Han-Ram launched his fifth home run in as many games, a three-run shot to put Boston ahead for good. I’ll admit to being stupefied that Ramirez has bounced back from his considerable May/June struggles at the plate, and I don’t know if he can keep it up, but it’s a sight to behold right now, and a phenomenon that is doing its damndest to keep the Sox afloat.

Bottom Play (WPA): In the top of the second inning, someone named Juan Centano doubled to center field to score people named Max Kepler (who had reached base on a Xander Bogaerts error, sad) and Eddie Rosario, putting the Twins up 2-0. All of these people are real and not, in fact, generically named replicants created to fill out a la the franchise mode in a video game. Obligatory Pokémon reference: The Twins need to get some candies and evolve those dudes, yo.

Key Moment: Miguel Sano’s fielding error with two outs in the bottom of the fifth — he was unable to even slow down an Aaron Hill grounder that went through him — allowed a run to score, which was bad enough for Minnesota, but the real damage was done by the next batter. That batter was Travis Shaw, and he hit a three-run homer to give the Sox the eight runs they’d need to hold onto the game with their leaky bullpen.

Trend to watch: I’m gonna ignore the Twins’ furious comeback, which exposed (yet again) the Sox’ considerable problems in holding leads, because you know that. Let’s stick with Hanley the Hot, who could really help the Sox if he averaged a home run per game for the rest of the year, as he has for the last five contests. I see no reason he can’t keep it up through October, except that no one has ever done anything like that, not even Sammy Sosa. If you will it, it is no dream.

Coming next: The Tigers come to town for a three-game set starting tonight. Red Sox legend Drew Pomeranz will face Detroit newcomer Justin Verlander in game one, though I may have some of the details wrong. Expect the Sox to play exactly to Detroit’s level throughout the entire series and drive us all nuts. Amen.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Despite a recent downturn, the offense has hardly been to blame. It’s been frustrating at times, but it’s still the best in the game in terms of runs scored,and leads the American League runner up (Baltimore) by nearly 40 runs. Of course, much of this is due to Boston’s insane start to the year when the offense was looking like one of the best lineups in league history. Since the calendar has flipped to June, things have changed a bit. The Red Sox’s bats have still been good, or at least above-average, ranking 11th in baseball and sixth in the American League over that time.

I think it’s safe to say Travis Shaw has not been the problem this year. He’s been frustrating at times, but he’s still been comfortably above average with a .273/.338/.455 slash line and a .271 TAv. Of course, much of this is due to his insane start to the year when he was looking like one of the better bats in the AL. Since the calendar has flipped to June, things have changed a bit. He’s hitting an atrocious .225/.289/.325 this month, which is a far, far cry from where he was entering the month.

The trajectories of the lineup as a whole and Shaw have almost mirrored each other as the season has gone on.

Do you see what I did there? The trajectories of the lineup as a whole and Shaw have almost mirrored each other as the season has gone on. Now, it’s fair to say that both of their early-season runs were unsustainable, but the steep fall was certainly unexpected. Because of this correlation, it’s my opinion that Shaw is the most important bat in Boston’s offense.

Now, let’s address a few things before I explain why this is the case. For one thing, “most important” is obviously different than “best.” I’m an idiot, but I’m not going to sit here and tell you Shaw is better than Ortiz, Bogaerts, Betts, Pedroia, Ramirez or Bradley. Duh. Speaking of Bradley, he’s the only other guy with an argument to be in this discussion, as he’s obviously taken a step back this month. Even with the step back, though, he’s still the owner of an .825 OPS in June. He may be more important to the Red Sox being great, but Shaw is more important to the Red Sox being good, rather than average.

The reasoning is actually fairly straight-forward. Right now, thanks to injuries and regression, the Red Sox have a devastatingly clear drop off at the bottom of the lineup. Assuming we’re not taking Sandy Leon and his .467 average seriously (which, come one), catcher is an obvious black hole between him, Christian Vazquez and eventually Ryan Hanigan.

Likewise, left field is currently being manned by the likes of Bryce Brentz and Ryan LaMarre. Even Brock Holt’s return doesn’t promise much added punch to the lineup. When players need a day off, the depth that fills in the lineup includes guys like Marco Hernandez (who I like but who isn’t there yet as a MLB hitter) and Deven Marrero (who I don’t like as a player and probably won’t ever get there as a MLB hitter).

Simply put, the Red Sox can’t thrive if the bottom of their lineup only extends that deep. Shaw is the man who hits between the Ortiz/Ramirez/Bradley trio and the abyss that is catcher plus left field. When Shaw fails to get hits in that spot, it all but guarantees anything the top of the lineup did was all for naught. Right now, he’s failing to hit, and everything is happening for naught. This can be seen by the team’s free-falling run total.

Because of his importance to the team, it’s worth looking into what has plagued Shaw this month. Looking at the base numbers, there are two clear issues that jump out: BABIP and power. Both of these areas have regressed heavily since the beginning of the season, and it’s an interesting pairing.

To start with, there is surely some luck involved. Baseball has a way of evening itself out, and this appears to be that process in action. However, it also indicates that Shaw is making less quality contact right now than he was earlier in the year. There are a few underlying reasons why this is the case.

The first is that he appears to be getting pull-happy. It’s unclear whether this is a new phenomenon brought on by stress due to his struggles or if this him simply trying to tap into his power too much after that hot start to the season. Either way, FanGraphs has his opposite-field rate this month down at 15.6 percent. It’s easily the lowest single-month rate of his career and is significantly different from his career 26.4 percent rate. This is particularly bad for a lefty at Fenway, who should be using the Monster to his full advantage. For those who do better with visuals than numbers, this is for you.

The other issue is that Shaw is simply not hitting enough fly balls. Now, this should help his BABIP, particularly since his 25.4 percent line-drive rate in June is stellar. However, the lack of fly balls has a clear effect on his lack of power, particularly in terms of home runs. Brooks Baseball backs this point up, as his average spray angles have gone down as the year has gone on. This is particularly true against fastballs, a pitch he has struggled with the most this month. Unfortunately, it appears pitchers have noticed this, as he’s seen more and more fastballs with each passing month.

The bad news is that Shaw’s struggles showed no sign of stopping Wednesday, as he went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. The good news is that Shaw has shown an ability to adjust in the majors before. He said last year that he’s been helped tremendously by advanced scouting in the bigs, and Sox fans have to hope he can turn to that again.

When he’s hitting, this lineup is deep and powerful. When he’s not, Boston loses punch at a critical point in the batting order, and the Red Sox offense looks far more average like it has throughout June.

Photo by Tim Heltman/USA Today Sports Images