Top Play (WPA): With the game tied at one in the bottom of the fifth inning, Aaron Hicks led things off with a bloop bunt single that just barely got past Henry Owens’ outstretched glove. After Hicks reached, Owens composed himself and retired the next two batters. But then Jacoby Ellsbury – who had a terrific game (two hits, two walks, a stolen base, a run scored and a RBI) – doubled to center field, plating Hicks for the Yankees’ second run (WPA: +.166).

Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom play of the game came in the top half of the fifth inning. After Jackie Bradley Jr. grounded out to start the inning, Ryan Hanigan, getting his first start in two weeks, singled to center. Unfortunately, the threat of any run scoring was quickly extinguished, as CC Sabathia got Travis Shaw to roll over a slider, grounding it down the first base line. Yankee first baseman Tyler Austin fielded the ball, touched first base and then threw to second in time to get the plodding Hanigan (WPA: -.069). It was the closest the Red Sox would come to having a player reach second base safely the rest of the night.

Key Moment: It did not have much bearing on the final outcome of the game, but Xander Bogaerts’ game-tying home run in the fourth inning off CC Sabathia was a welcome sight. It is also worth noting that the ball he hit in the ninth probably would have left the yard on another night, but the nasty wind howling around Yankee Stadium late last night knocked it down. These moments are noteworthy because Xander has scuffled significantly in the second half, leading to questions about him being fatigued and worries about how he will hold up through the playoffs. While it is almost certainly the case that he is fatigued after playing in all but five of the Red Sox’s 159 games, Xander’s performance over the last two weeks suggests he is fine. Over that period, he has posted a batting line of .261/.370/.435 (54 PA), which is much closer to his impressive first half line (.329/.388/.475) than it is to what his second half line was two weeks ago (through September 14: .250/.302/.394). Hopefully he has regained his stroke at the plate and can continue his recent string of success into the postseason.

Trend to Watch: Playing time. How will John Farrell manage to give his players time off between now and the start of the Division Series? It is a good idea to give the regulars a day or two off before next week’s postseason games, but also important to give them enough playing time to keep them fresh and ready to roll. It will be a juggling act. There is also the concern of winning enough to earn/maintain home-field advantage in their playoff series. Given Cleveland’s injury issues, I think the Red Sox’s preference should be to play Cleveland, rather than the winner of the Wild Card game (Toronto/Baltimore/Detroit). So securing the second best record in the AL is of interest, but chasing the top spot is likely not worth it.

Coming next: The Red Sox head home to Fenway and welcome in the Toronto Blue Jays for the final series of the season. There was a time not too long ago when this series had the potential to be very important, but now the Sox are playing out the string, and will be focusing on lining themselves up for the playoffs as best they can. Rick Porcello will take the hill for the Red Sox looking to finish up his strong season on a positive note. Opposing Porcello on the mound will be the Blue Jays’ Marco Estrada. Estrada has had another solid season in Toronto, as his ability to get batted balls turned into outs continued at an incredibly high rate. Ideally the offense can knock Estrada around a bit and make Toronto’s quest to secure the top wild card spot difficult.

Photo by Anthony Gruppuso/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Edit Edit date and time

Alex Rodriguez led off the top of fifth inning with a single to left. After Chase Headley and Greg Bird struck out, any Yankee threat appeared to be minimized. Didi Gregorius then hit a chopper down the first-base line that should have ended the inning, but Travis Shaw misplayed the second hop and the ball scooted under his glove and all the way down the right field line. Rodriguez ended up at third, and Gregorious advanced to second on the error. The misplay proved especially costly as the next batter, Stephen Drew, smacked a double to left-center field scoring both baserunners (WPA: + .258). In the end, the runs were enough to get the Yankees the win.

Bottom Play (WPA): 

Trailing 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts singled off of Dellin Betances’ 98 mph fastball offerings. With one out and David Ortiz at the plate things were looking pretty good. Then on a 1-1 pitch, Mookie and Xander took off on an attempted double steal. I don’t know if they went on their own, or if it was called from the bench but it was not a great decision. Betances throws very hard, and with Ortiz at the plate Yankees catcher Brian McCann had a clear shot throwing to third. McCann did throw to third and Betts was called out (WPA: – .123). The play was very close, and it seemed like third base umpire Vic Carapazza called Betts out for coming off the bag while Chase Headley still had a tag applied to him. The Red Sox challenged the call, but while replays appeared to show that Betts did not come off the bag, the video evidence was not irrefutable and the call was upheld. Check out the video below to decide for yourself:

Key Moment: 

Porcello was cruising through 7.2 innings, only having allowed two runs. Unfortunately, before Porcello could complete the eighth inning Brett Gardner took him deep over the top of Pesky’s Pole for a critical insurance run (WPA: + .135). With Betances already in the game at that point, and Andrew Miller looming, increasing a one-run lead to two runs made things look really favorable for the Yankees.

Trend to Watch: 

With September 1 comes expanded rosters and the Red Sox have called up Allen Craig, Ryan Cook, Noe Ramirez and Sandy Leon. Of these four players I think Craig is the most interesting. We have no idea what he is capable of anymore and it is not clear where he would slot in on next year’s roster. His decline to below replacement level production came quickly, earning him the demotion to Pawtucket. In 400 plate appearances at Triple-A this season he has a triple slash of .274/.368/.350. The on-base percentage is nice, but the slugging is downright ugly, especially when considering he slugged .522 and .457 in consecutive seasons at the major league not too long ago. So the question remains: what, if anything, can Craig provide at the major league level? And if he shows that he can produce like he used to, what do the Red Sox do with him? There is no everyday role in the outfield, at first base or at designated hitter next year, so unless he is considered useful as a bench player there is no clear spot for him. Even the bench role seems like a bit of an awkward fit. He is not exactly versatile or fleet of foot, having him pinch hit for David Ortiz does not present an offensive upgrade and having him pinch hit for Jackie Bradley Jr. raises issues on the defensive side of things. It is not an easy fit. Perhaps the Red Sox are showcasing him for a trade. But it seems unlikely that other teams are going to use a handful of games in September to decide they should give up a decent player in their system to get Craig. Nevertheless I think seeing what Craig can do in the big leagues will be an interesting aspect of the next month.

Coming next: 

The series wraps up tomorrow at 4:05pm EST with Henry Owens heading to the hill to take on the Yankees for the second time in his young career. Owens has performed fairly well during his time in the big leagues, but has struggled with high pitch counts and as a result has not worked deep into games. In three of his five starts he has only thrown 5.0 innings. In his most recent outing against the Mets, Owens had difficulty with control, walking four batters. He will need to be sharper against the patient Yankee lineup. The Red Sox offense will be in tough against Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka (3.62 ERA, 4.07 FIP), who has already beat them twice this season. However, in those two outings Tanaka was less than sharp, posting a cumulative line of 11.0 innings pitched, nine hits, seven runs, two home runs, four walks and seven strikeouts. The Sox’s offense will look to continue their reasonable success against Tanaka and wrap up a series win.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Carlos Beltran’s homer in the 7th inning wins this one with a .144 WPA, with Alejandro De Aza’s RBI double (.118) and David Ortiz’s monster homer (.114) coming in 2nd and 3rd, respectively. A knuckleball from Steven Wright didn’t dive down in the zone enough, and Beltran walloped a line drive shot into the right field corner. That was really the only hard-hit ball off Wright the Yankees had all night, as most of the other hits were grounders that found holes or bloops in front of Red Sox outfielders. I’m looking at you, Hanley Ramirez.

Bottom Play (WPA): On paper, it’ll show that Jacoby Ellsbury grounded into a double play to the pitcher in the bottom of the 8th, but the visual sequence of the play was much more ridiculous. Not only was that the worst play in the game by a sizable margin with its -.200 WPA, it honestly looked like something out of MLB The Show. That ball was most likely ticketed for center field, and the Sox would’ve have been looking at a two-on, no-out situation, but Steven Wright’s foot deflected it to Xander Bogaerts, who recovered nicely to get the double play and quell whatever threat there was. As you’ll see in a bit, it was one of several minor disasters that were averted throughout this game.

Key Moment: In the top of the 4th inning, Luis Severino, a talented Yankees pitcher in his first start in the majors, decided to throw David Ortiz a fastball middle-in on a 2-0 count. That ball is still in orbit. Statcast registered that blast at 441 feet, eclipsing the distance gained on Pablo Sandoval’s bomb from the night before. Ortiz put the Red Sox up 2-0, giving them some breathing room they would come to desperately need as the Yankees cut the lead to one in the seventh and had the tying run on-base in each of the last two innings.

Trend to Watch: The Red Sox tried so, so hard to revert to their standard 2015 form while Steven Wright pitched a gem. Here’s recounting of all the time the Red Sox tried to shoot themselves in the foot and ended up firing a blank:

• Wright walked Brett Gardner in the first inning. Blake Swihart promptly allows a passed ball and Gardner reaches second base with just one out. Wright then strikes out Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez to end the inning.
• At one point during the 7th inning, Robbie Ross was warming up in the bullpen. Thankfully, Wright was still confounding Yankee hitters, even after that Beltran homer. Ross never entered the game.
• To lead off the bottom of the 8th, John Ryan Murphy singles to left on a bloop that Ramirez really should’ve caught. Ellsbury then tries to ground one up the middle and, well, the rest is history.
• With one out in the 9th inning, Mark Teixeira reaches first base on a single to Rusney Castillo in right field, who dived for a ball that was going to bounce in front of him. Somehow, Castillo ended up with a baseball in his glove and Teixeira was originally called out before a review overturned the call. Chris Young then pinch-runs for Teixeira.
• After a passed ball from Swihart allows Young to take second base, Koji Uehara tries to be sneaky. He attempts to pick off Young at second, uncorks a terrible pickoff throw that hits the bag, and the ball ricochets away…right at Brock Holt. Young does not advance. John Farrell’s face says it all.
• Uehara walks the potential winning run in Chase Headley, and Joe Girardi pinch-hits Brian McCann for Didi Gregorius. McCann flies out to center on a 0-2 pitch.

The last four bullet points all came within a span of six outs. Insanity.

Coming Next: Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start in Thursday’s game, as he’ll oppose CC Sabathia in the rubber match of this three-game set in the Bronx. All the Red Sox need is some good pitching, a 440-foot homer and several favorable bounces and they’ll be set!

Photo by Noah K. Murray/USA Today Sports Images

Things are looking pretty good in the land of the Red Sox. They have won four straight games, and their last four series, taking two of three from the Rays, three of four from the Jays, two of three from the Astros, and then sweeping a two-game set against the Marlins this week. All of this, coupled with a sputtering Yankees team that’s just 5-5 in its last 10 games, means the Red Sox come into the weekend with a chance to get right back into the thick of the race in the American League East. They are currently four games under .500, and only 5.5 games back of the first place Yankees. While the Sox are still on the outside looking in, they are not nearly as far outside as they were just two weeks ago. A sweep in this important intra-division series would be a beautiful thing, and really set things up for a fun second half of the season.

All of a sudden this Red Sox team is fun to watch again. It is amazing what winning can do.

New York Yankees – Record (46-39) – Projected Record (85-77)

The Yankees have been a surprising team thus far. Most projection systems had them at a modest likelihood of making the playoffs, but with their performance to date, and poor play from teams like the Red Sox, the Yankees have one of the largest increases in playoff odds on the season. The Yanks have accomplished this rise largely through their offense. They have scored the third most runs in the game, behind only the Blue Jays and Astros and by wRC+ they have been the fifth best offense, although by TAv they have only been the ninth best. The pitching and defense have not been so great. They own the tenth worst team ERA, although their 11^th best fielding-independent mark suggests they should be better. Much of that ERA problem comes from their starting rotation, which has posted a 4.31 ERA, the 9^th worst mark in baseball. CC Sabathia has lost too much velocity to remain effective, Masahiro Tanaka’s last few starts suggest he may need another month-long break, and Nathan Eovaldi is in the Joe Kelly camp of having potential but no ability to translate it to performance. Michael Pineda (3.79 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 105/13 K/BB) has been the lone bright spot of the rotation. The Yankees’ bullpen on the other hand, with Andrew Miller back from injury and Dellin Betances at the backend, is a really strong part of the team.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the Yankees’ ride to first place is that they have performed at the level they have without being entirely healthy. Jacoby Ellsbury was on the disabled list for the last seven weeks with a sprained knee, just returning to the team on Tuesday. Insert dumb Ellsbury is injury-prone joke here. Miller missed the last month with a forearm issue, also just re-joining the team. Ivan Nova, expected to be a strong part of their rotation, missed the first two-and-a-half months rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Yankees weathered the storm of the absence of these key contributors, are now back to having more or less the team they intended to roll out, and should be ready for the second half.

Probables:

Game 1: Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda, Friday 7:10pm EDT

Buchholz has been far and away the best starting pitcher on the Red Sox this year. In his last two starts, against quality offensive teams in Houston and Toronto, Buchholz was dominant: 17 innings pitched, 11 hits, two runs, no walks, and 13 strikeouts. That might seem like a cherry-picked selection, and well, it is, but you can go back farther than that to show how strong Buchholz has been. His last bad outing was on June 7^th against Oakland. Looking at his season, there is a reasonable case to be made that he has only had three bad starts (including that outing against Oakland). One of the others was on April 12^th in Yankee Stadium, when he allowed 10 runs in 3.1 innings. Hopefully he fares better this time around against the Yankee lineup.

Buchholz:Red Sox :: Michael Pineda:Yankees. Pineda has easily been the Yankees best starting pitcher this year. He strikes out a lot of batters – he struck out 16 Orioles on May 10^th – and limits hard contact. His delivery helps him do these things, as it is one that batters find deceptive, which makes it that much more difficult to pick up on his already quality pitches. Fenway Park is the location of what is likely his most embarrassing professional moment: when he was dinged for having a ridiculous amount of pine tar on his neck. But otherwise he has pitched well at Fenway, and against the Red Sox generally. He comes into Boston looking to follow up on his last two excellent starts against the Astros and Rays.

Game 2: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Ivan Nova, Saturday 7:15pm EDT

Eduardo Rodriguez has certainly been the Red Sox’s second best starter this season. Of his eight starts to date he has only had two really rough starts; both coincidentally against American League East opponents. The first was against the lefty-mashing Blue Jays, and the second was against the Orioles, a start in which it was determined that he was tipping his pitches. While the pitch tipping is absolutely a cause for concern, his two outings since the Orioles roughed him up have been good. The Yankees represent another inter-division test for Rodriguez. If he can limit the Yankees offense, the Red Sox will have even more reason to be confident in the duo they have at the front end of their rotation going forward.

Nova has made three decent starts since rejoining the team. The 2.65 ERA looks nice, but the 4.79 FIP is ominous. This is a product of his strikeout rate being well below career norms, his walk rate being well above them, and some good fortune with allowing fewer home runs per fly ball than is typical. However, it must be noted that he has only thrown 17 innings, so these marks are all posted in a small sample and a lot could change over his next handful of starts. He does not appear to have lost velocity in his time away from pitching, which is good news for Nova and the Yankees. They will need him to regain his 2013 form if they intend on holding onto first place the rest of the way.

Game 3: Wade Miley vs. Nathan Eovaldi, Sunday 1:35pm EDT

You know who has been the Red Sox’s third best starter this season? Wade Miley. Yes. Wade Miley. To some extent this is a function of his being the best of the worst, but he has been fine. His ERA is still well above league average, but his FIP is right around league average, which is what we should expect, and suggests there is some room for improvement. He pitched very well on Tuesday against the Marlins, striking out nine batters and only allowing three runs over 6.2 innings. Sunday will mark Miley’s third outing against the Yankees this year. He performed well in the first two, so ideally he can continue his success against them and lead the Red Sox into the All-Star break on a positive note.

I mentioned above that Eovaldi has some Joe Kelly similarities in that he has struggled to fully harness his potential. He throws hard (averages 96 mph on his fastball), but does not overpower batters to the point of getting a lot of strikeouts, and has trouble commanding his velocity, leading to way too many walks. The 67/26 K/BB is not great. Eovaldi has a 4.45 ERA on the season, but his 3.66 FIP points to his having been better than the ERA shows.

Opposing Lineup:

As mentioned, the Yankees’ offense has been the one of the top five in the game so far this season. They score a lot of runs and do so by hitting home runs (their Guillen # of 47.12 is the highest in the game). The Yanks’ lineup is a bit top-heavy, with the first six spots in the order presenting a significant challenge. There is a lot of power there: Brett Gardner (10 HR, .478 SLG), Chase Headley (8, .368), A-Rod (16, .505), Mark Teixeira (20, .522), and Brian McCann (13, .469). Headley is still not hitting at his typical level, but he is still a threat. Even the bottom part of the lineup is no walk in the park. The Garrett Jones, Chris Young, Didi Gregorious and old pal Stephen Drew group have combined to hit 31 homers. This team can hit.

The Yankees’ don’t really have a standout platoon split to speak of, as they hit righties and lefties at about the same level. So there are not really clear platoon partner substitutions to expect from the lineup given above. The main split of interest for this offense is their home/road split. This group has hit much better at home (123 wRC+, 5.54 runs per game) than on the road (88 wRC+, 3.77 runs per game), which bodes well for the Sox this weekend at Fenway.

Recap

This is a big series for both of these teams. With a series win the Yankees can halt the ongoing Red Sox surge up the standings, while a series win for the Red Sox will really reinsert them back into the mix going in to the All-Star break. The Red Sox have three of their better starters taking the mound in the series, and the Red Sox’s resurgent offense should be capable of knocking the Yankees starters around. This should be a really interesting series.

Photo by Greg M. Cooper/USA Today Sports Images