Now we’ll get into a few slightly less declarative statements. The Red Sox have, depending on how you view it, one of the worst situations at third base in baseball this season. The exact level of awfulness is hard to pin down thanks to Pablo Sandoval. His batting line is bad (.213/.269/.377) and he’s only played in 17 of the team’s 46 games so far. He has made four errors in those 17 games and hasn’t shown much in the way of range, though his improved conditioning has made him at least look like he could be a major league third baseman, in theory. Considering he makes $17.6 million this year, and $18.6 million in both 2018 and 2019, the Red Sox are stuck with him. And when I say “stuck with him” I mean stuck with his salary; they’ll pay it even if they cut him.

Beyond Sandoval the Red Sox have employed Deven Marrero at third, who, home run last night not withstanding, isn’t a major league-caliber hitter. Only 40 games into the season, the Red Sox have used three other players at the position, for a total of five. All have been bad, though the levels of badness have varied depending on what you happen to be measuring at the time.

The point is though that the Red Sox have a vacancy at third base, as they have since before signing Sandoval three years ago. They also have their best prospect, a third baseman, raking in the minors. So the obvious solution is to bring up said prospect, wipe your hands, and call it a day. Except no.

There are several problems with this plan, starting with Sandoval himself. At age 30, with his history as an above-average player, and with his salary, Sandoval deserves another chance to be the starting third baseman. He may not be successful in his venture, but there are reasons to think he might be. His batted ball data looks shockingly good, way out of line with his lousy slash line. If he keeps hitting the ball as he did when he was healthy, he’ll have more success. As for his defense, many of the problems he presented were based on his throwing. That’s never been a particular problem before and is pretty easily attributed to rust. That’s not to dismiss the errors outright, but to say that there’s a fair chance this was a cluster of mistakes in what would be a larger sample of decency, as opposed to a warning sign of more bad defense to come.

Then there’s his contract, which essentially means the Red Sox are wedded to him for three more seasons. If Devers were 23 or 24 and destroying in Triple-A, that might be something you apologize to Sandoval for as you push him out the back door, but Devers is 20 and in Double-A. He might be ready for the majors, but there’s a more than reasonable chance that he isn’t. Sandoval’s contract is Sandoval’s contract. It’s not going anywhere, nobody is going to take it on, and unless the Red Sox are presented with a sure thing in Devers or someone else, there’s no sense in ridding themselves of someone in Sandoval who could solve their third base problem, even temporarily.

There’s another issue with Sandoval’s contract. Since the Red Sox are going to be paying him whether he’s on the roster or not, it makes it difficult to go out on the trade market and acquire anyone. There are some third basemen who aren’t making much money and are very good, but the Orioles aren’t likely to deal Manny Machado to the Red Sox ever, and especially not as long as they’re looking down at Boston in the standings. Similarly the Blue Jays, even if they decide to blow it up and deal Josh Donaldson, aren’t likely to want to help the Red Sox raise another World Series banner.

Since Sandoval will be paid by the Red Sox, and since the Red Sox don’t have anyone else who can stand in and provide certainty – defined as league-average production at the position – they’re better off sticking with Sandoval. It’s hardly an ideal situation, but it’s the one Dave Dombrowski and company have set themselves up for by depending on a player coming off a lost season that followed a season featuring utter offensive and defensive ineptitude. The Red Sox have hitched their horse to Sandoval’s wagon, for better or worse.

Okay, Matt, you might say, but what about Devers? If they’re going to pay Sandoval, fine, they’ve made that bed and can’t go back, but just bring Devers up and the problem is fixed. Well, maybe and no. Devers might be able to hit major league pitching, maybe. But we don’t know that. Dombrowski has a history of bringing hitters up from Double-A and sometimes they can handle it, like Andrew Benintendi, and sometimes they can’t, like Yoan Moncada, or Nick Castellanos. There’s a danger to it, as it’s possible to do serious damage to the psyche of prospect who might not be ready to face major league pitching.

Devers might be able to handle it, but he might not, and looking where the Red Sox are with respect to third base, they need him to be able to handle it when he does get the call. That might be later this year, after Sandoval gets another shot to show he can be some smaller version of the guy the Red Sox gave $90 million to, or it might be next season, or even the one beyond that (hard to see them waiting that long though).

In the end, the Red Sox have what appears to be a gem on their hands with Devers, and that gem looks like it’ll fit perfectly into the one spot in the Red Sox lineup that has plagued them for years. Maybe Devers can be the short-term solution. Maybe Sandoval can. Maybe they need to explore the trade market for short term solutions. The one declarative sentence we can make is this: Rafael Devers is the future. What we don’t know is when that future begins. Sandoval is set to come back from the DL sometime in about a week. If you’re looking for declarative sentences on this topic, that’ll be your first clue.

Photo by Jonathan Dyer – USA TODAY Sports

The hours after the news of the Sale trade broke on Tuesday were predictably filled with Takes, both hot and otherwise. Most of Red Sox Nation – myself included – is thrilled by the prospect of the current Cy Young holder as a number three starter. Remember when this was supposed to be a quiet offseason? It is clear now that a 6-foot-6 asterisk was attached to that proclamation in the shape of Chris Sale.

Much of the national media now has the Sox pegged as the odds-on favorite in the American League. Sports Illustrated and CBSSports’ Jonah Keri (RIP Grantland), opines that the move puts the team in the driver’s seat in the AL. Ben Lindbergh over at The Ringer agrees with his former co-worker. Most all fans and baseball analysts liked the trade for, really, both colors of Sox. Rob Bradford makes the case at WEEI.com that this was the biggest trade in recent Red Sox history. The closest to a negative reaction to the trade, from what I read, was this column by WEEI’s John Tomase fretting about Dave Dombrowski’s notable propensity to empty the prospect war chest in order to achieve the all-important Win Now. Even Tomase’s gripe is more with the totality of Dombrowski’s work, and he acknowledges the boon that is acquiring Chris Sale.

There is a clear and not-hard-to-decipher consensus that the trade makes the Red Sox demonstrably better heading into the 2017 season. And, considering the Nationals on Wednesday traded the White Sox arguably baseball’s top pitching prospect in Lucas Giolito for a guy with ‘Spanky’ in his Twitter handle, the price the Red Sox paid for Sale seems relatively reasonable.

Tuesday saw the Red Sox deal four of the nine top players in the farm system (including Luis Alexander Basabe in the move for Sale and Mauricio Dubon for reliever Tyler Thornburg), per SoxProspects.com. So in a way, Tomase is totally right: the cupboard looks pretty bare. Rafael Devers and 18-year-old Jason Groome are the two remaining genuinely promising (though you may be bullish on some others) players in the minor leagues.

That being said, let’s remember a significant reason for this truth: a lot of former prospects are performing at the Major League level! Andrew Benintendi looked ready to play an everyday role in left field in his limited and injury-interrupted audition late in 2016. Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t turn 24 until April and posted a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts after returning from Pawtucket in July. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are All-Stars that just turned 24 in October. (Aside: my heart grew three sizes after realizing that Mookie and Xander were born six days apart as I imagined them throwing joint birthday parties. Anyways.)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox are young, are good right now, and just got better right now. As Ben Buchanan lays out for Over the Monster, this trade was the best way for the team to make a move for Sale if they were going to do so; no Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rodriguez or other major league talent was involved. They just took what was a 93-win team and added probably the best non-Clayton Kershaw lefty in the world. That feels pretty good.

Before all that craziness transpired, the Red Sox had made a trade with the Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg, who threw 67 innings last year for Milwaukee to the tune of a 2.15 ERA and .940 WHIP. Craig Kimbrel has a very talented new set-up man.

The more minor trade has an array of interesting consequences for the team going forward, both significant and trivial. For one, the trade included Travis Shaw, meaning Ding Dong City either a. needs a new mayor or b. is a mobile municipality of a kind heretofore unknown. Also, the Red Sox sent Mauricio Dubon to the Brewers, breaking the heart of colleague Matt Collins but perhaps more importantly allowing for this magnificent Twitter interaction to occur.

From a baseball standpoint, the combination of the two deals makes clear the team’s commitment to and faith in Pablo Sandoval playing third base next season. As Jason Mastrodonato reports in the Herald, Dombrowski thinks Sandoval is “ready to come back.” And Sandoval seems to be too. In fact, he might even be in the Best Shape Of His Life.

Check out the slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval https://t.co/v0YffLEA9G #RedSox pic.twitter.com/8s6AWWscc8

— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) December 7, 2016

As Alex Speier points out in the Globe, the hefty price for Thornburg reflects the incredibly high cost and value of relievers in today’s climate. Andrew Miller’s postseason messed with some peoples’ heads, apparently. Since Alex published his piece, the Cubs traded noted masher of baseballs and very promising talent Jorge Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. As I’m writing this, the Yankees just signed Aroldis Chapman for five years and $86 million. So, yeah. Go back in time and train yourself to be a set-up man.

Finally, the Thornburg acquisition closed the door on the possibility of Koji Uehara returning in 2017, Dombrowski said. This is not a shocking development but a sad one nonetheless. Thanks for the memories Koji, we’ll miss you and your logic-defying sinker.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Acquired LHP Chris Sale from Chicago White Sox in exchange for INF-B Yoan Moncada, RHP Michael Kopech, OF-B Luis Alexander Basabe, and RHP Victor Diaz. [12/6]

One imagines Dave Dombrowski climbing down to the field level at Fenway Park, lifting his arms in the air and screaming “ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED” to the heavens.

Last offseason, Dombrowski didn’t make any franchise-altering moves, and that came as a bit of a surprise. Sure, he traded away Manny Margot and decent secondary prospects for Craig Kimbrel, but Boston’s system was so deep and their need at reliever so great that most people (myself included) forgave that perceived overpay. Dealing Anderson Espinoza to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz at midseason was big too, but not like this. Nothing like this.

In acquiring Chris Sale for three of their remaining top prospects–including one truly elite talent in Moncada–the Red Sox have fundamentally changed their outlook now and well into the future. And while they’ve gutted their farm system in the process–Dombrowski doesn’t care about your prospects, fam–they haven’t meaningfully impacted the young nucleus that led them to the playoffs last season.

Read the rest for free at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by David Banks II/USA Today Sports Images

The State of the System: I could just C&P the Nats lines here. Incredible top five, falls off quickly after that, and past the top ten, even fewer intriguing names than the Nats.

The Top Ten

1. OF Andrew Benintendi
2. IF Yoan Moncada
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. LHP Jason Groome
5. RHP Michael Kopech
6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe
7. SS Mauricio Dubon
8. 1B Sam Travis
9. LHP Brian Johnson
10. 1B Josh Ockimey

The Big Question: Why don’t we give out 80 hit tools?

Andrew Benintendi is about as sure a bet to hit for a good batting average as a prospect can be. He was a top-ten overall draft pick as a small, late-blooming, moderately bat-first player. The bat has to be really good for that to happen. His minor-league performance record is absolutely flawless, outside of a rough first couple weeks in Double-A that got drowned out in the season line quickly when he started crushing the ball. He is essentially already established as a major-league regular, only eligible for this list because a minor injury kept him just a touch under the rookie-eligibility requirements. He hit .295 for a month-and-a-half in the majors in a pennant race. He’s got one of those picture-perfect beautiful lefty swings. He makes a short, aggressive move on the ball. His wrists are great, his bat speed is excellent, and he has a really good idea of what he wants to do. The ball jumps off his bat in a way it does for the truly special ones. There’s basically nothing to nitpick here. This is the total hit package.

Read the rest ($) at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Before looking ahead to the 2017 team and beyond, it is worth looking back at the career of ex-Red Sox star Manny Ramirez, who is now eligible for the Hall of Fame. By the numbers, Manny, a player many have considered one of the best right-handed hitters to ever play the game, looks like a Hall of Famer: 555 home runs, .312/.411/.585 slashline, critical part of two World Series winners, 76.3 WARP, this play, and on and on. Manny was so great:

By Jay Jaffe’s JAWS, Manny was slightly better than the average Hall of Fame left fielder, meaning he would raise the quality of enshrined left fielders. Ian Browne of MLB.com has a great retrospective of Manny’s career. So elect him, right? Not likely. As Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald details, Manny’s multiple suspensions for violating MLB’s PED policy makes it a longshot that he gets the Hall call. Along these lines, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe considers Manny’s place among Red Sox greats who have not been enshrined, ultimately ranking him third behind Roger Clemens and Curt “how can I tarnish my image further today” Schilling. Regardless of his election, it will be interesting to see how long Manny remains eligible on the ballot. Will he lurk around for a few years like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have? Will he get bounced immediately? Manny certainly represents an interesting case for the voters. If he does get in, I am sure that his speech will be incredible.

The Red Sox have sorely lacked production from third base in recent years. Pablo Sandoval’s first season in red socks went terribly, and last year, outside of two good months from Travis Shaw, the group of players who occupied the hot corner posted a .238 TAv. As such, what to expect from the position in 2017 is remarkably unclear. Regardless, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe writes that Sandoval should get the opportunity to be the primary third baseman in 2017. I agree with Abraham for two reasons. First, it is unlikely that Sandoval will be as bad as he was in 2015, and second, the other options will be better used in bench/utility roles (Shaw, Brock Holt) or need more development time (Yoan Moncada). The 3-to-5-win Sandoval of San Francisco Giants fame is likely not going to be seen in Boston but that doesn’t mean there should be a rush to trade him for pennies on the dollar. And, no, the Giants don’t want him back. Sandoval slots nicely into the bottom third of the already potent Red Sox lineup, and hopefully his focus on conditioning over the last year helps his agility on defense. It is reasonable to expect him to be a 1-2 win contributor in 2017, which is great for the 2017 club and also allows Moncada more time to learn the position at the minor league level so that he can be ready to assert himself as the primary candidate in 2018.

Quick Hits

For a number of Red Sox players, the 2016 postseason, was their first taste of playoff baseball at the major league level. Unfortunately, after getting swept in the Division Series, it was over before they could get acclimated. Despite the poor result, Scott Lauber of ESPN.com outlines how getting a taste of playoff experience this past season could prove valuable in the future for the young core of the team.

While that young core is in place for the 2017 season, there are still areas of the team that can be enhanced. Carlos Beltran, an excellent offensive-threat from both sides of the plate, has been mentioned as a Red Sox target. Beltran would be a nice addition to an already strong offense. However, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes, the Sox are not alone in being interested in adding Beltran. The Yankees, Astros, Rangers and (maybe) the Blue Jays are all vying for the aging slugger.

Adding to the offense is one approach for this offseason, however Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald thinks the Red Sox should focus on getting someone from the starting pitching market. The Red Sox’s league-leading offense is still likely to be a top-five group, but the pitching is murkier. Mastrodonato suggests that adding Chris Sale or Justin Verlander is feasible and would make things much more comfortable.

Two members of the current starting rotation have different views on pitching for their country in the World Baseball Classic (WBC). American League Cy-Young winner Rick Porcello wants to repeat his 2016 Spring preparations in 2017 and will therefore skip pitching for the American squad. However, Porcello’s rotation-mate Eduardo Rodriguez has made it known that he would like to pitch for Venezuela. While it is an honour to compete for one’s country, John Tomase of WEEI.com writes that, given the knee injury that affected his mechanics and contributed to a mostly mediocre season, Rodriguez should skip the WBC.

Even after all of the big league promotions that have happened over the last couple of years, the Red Sox’s farm system remains one of the best in the game. There are many players at the lower levels who could contribute in the big leagues in 2017. Christopher Smith of MassLive.com has notes on six players who could make their big league debut this season.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Over the past two weeks, most BP Boston authors have published 2017 Offseason Oracle columns in which we’ve gone in depth over what we think will happen (not what we think should happen) this offseason. Go read them. For a quick overview of what we think is in Boston’s future, refer to this handy chart:

Look forward to our “where we went wrong” post in March!

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

The interesting aspect to this comes when you consider the fact that the Red Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball this season. By Runs Scored they were first by a lot. They were also first in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Most total offensive metrics had them first or second as well, though our TAv had them sixth (no, I can’t explain it). The point is, the Red Sox won a lot of games in 2016 and many, especially in the first half of the season, were due to the overpowering nature of their offense. Ortiz’s loss in the clubhouse can’t be replaced, but while he was magnificent on the field, authoring maybe the best season ever by a 40-year-old, the raw numbers and production can be.

The largest portion of the replacement may come from the free-agent market where there is actually a healthy number of options to directly fill Ortiz’s position. Players like Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Beltran or Jose Bautista could replicate some decent-to-large percentage of what Ortiz did this season. Team President Dave Dombrowski hasn’t indicated whether he will look to add someone from that pool of players, but whether he does or not, it likely won’t fill the hole entirely. That’s because finding someone to step in and hit .315/.401/.620 as Ortiz did this season is a difficult proposition. Perhaps the Red Sox will acquire Freddie Freeman from the Braves or Joey Votto from the Reds, but outside of a huge addition like that, the trick will be to make incremental improvements across the lineup. The Red Sox will explore all avenues of improvement but the plan likely isn’t to add one big player and expect him to replace Ortiz one-for-one. Instead, they’ll need to get small bits from everybody in the lineup and with each step or half-step forward the loss of Ortiz is slightly lessened.

We’re talking about the highest scoring offense in baseball here, so improvement will be difficult, right? Is Mookie Betts going to hit better than a .900 OPS with 31 homers? Is Sandy Leon really going to reach .310/.369/.476 again, let alone best it? Well, no, probably not. I don’t count Mookie Betts out of anything, but it’s hard to see him doing better next season. However, that does bring up an interesting point, which is this: Betts is 23. He’ll be 24 next season. The Red Sox feature a number of important players in that age range, including Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart, who figures to play a more significant role in 2017. Players in their early and mid-20s are typically candidates to improve, simply based on normal aging patterns. It’s not outlandish to think Betts could improve his on-base next season as pitchers stop challenging him inside the strike zone. In fact, if you look at Betts’ monthly splits, you can see that kind of thing happening. Betts got off to a rough start in April with a .298 OBP, and put up .348 and .331 numbers in May and June. In July he kicked it up to .415 and August was virtually the same at .414. September saw a .373 OBP, so you could see some improvement there as Betts was forced to become more selective due to pitchers’ fears of getting burned. Maybe the homers aren’t quite there next season but the OBP more than makes up for it and there is some of Ortiz’s value.

Jackie Bradley did his all-or-nothing act again in 2016, going from being the best hitter in the game to the player who lost his major league roster spot in 2014. Some consistency in between scorching hot stretches would push Bradley into the upper echelon of hitters as well as hold on to a bit of Ortiz’s production. There are numerous other possibilities as well. Andrew Benintendi should get a full season in left field which will help. Can Hanley Ramirez or Dustin Pedroia get even a little bit better? I’m skeptical but maybe.

A bigger and more easily gained improvement is available at third base as 2016 was yet another season the Red Sox production from third was awful. That figures to change in the next few seasons as Yoan Moncada and/or Rafael Devers make their way(s) to Boston, but for now the team seems to be stuck with Travis Shaw. Perhaps Moncada makes the leap next season and provides the spark he was unable to give this season, but there’s a more likely long shot here and that is Pablo Sandoval.

Sandoval missed virtually the entire 2016 campaign after shoulder surgery, but he’s been a better-than-league average hitter in every season but his first in Boston in 2015. It’s not unreasonable to think that after a year off he can come back healthy, which he presumably wasn’t before, and in good shape (relatively speaking). Simply achieving league average would be an improvement over the low bar the team set at third base in 2016.

Other than a Sandoval reinvention, the Red Sox’s best hopes for offensive improvement probably lie with Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts has ticked up offensively each season he’s spent in the majors, but each season has also come with significant down periods. In 2016, Bogaerts fell apart towards the end of the year, highlighted by an especially difficult August. Even so, an .802 OPS from shortstop is quite good, but with Bogaerts’ obvious talent, it’s not crazy to say there is another gear in there somewhere, one with more power, more consistency, and better on-base ability. If there’s a player who can take a significant step forward in 2017 on the Red Sox roster and in doing so take a huge chunk out of the heap of productivity the Red Sox are losing through David Ortiz’s retirement, it’s Bogaerts.

Taken individually, each of these along with others are good, but taken together, the Red Sox can offset the loss of Ortiz to some large degree. Of course, forecasting improvement across the board is a dicey proposition. Typically some players improve while others, maybe some you don’t see coming, fall down. For the Red Sox to withstand losing David Ortiz and maintain their title as the best hitting team in baseball, they’re going to need Bradley, Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and Andrew Benintendi as well as others to improve. Given the ages and talents of the players involved it’s probably less pie-in-the-sky than you might think.

Or they could just go out and trade for Mike Trout. Either way, really.

Photo by Mike Dinovo/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

We’re in year three of Xander Bogaerts’ career in Boston, and so far he’s been exceptional. He’s been in the spotlight as one of the Sox best prospects for quite some time, arriving on the scene wearing #72 and taking a 3-2 slider from Max Scherzer in Game 6 of the 2013 ALCS that was definitely a ball and not a strike at all, nope, good call ump.

Since then, he’s quickly grown into one of the best young hitters in the game, and while the power hasn’t developed at the rate people expected it to, he’s been a 4-win player in each of the last two seasons. This season, he picked up where he left off, hitting .329/.388/.474 with a 130 wRC+ over 394 at bats in the first half. Then… he stopped. Through the second half of this year (251 at bats as of last night), Bogaerts is only hitting .254/.307/.401 with a 85 wRC+. So what happened?

Our own Matt Collins talked about it over at Over The Monster. The crux of it: Bogaerts hasn’t made the right adjustments to how pitchers have changed pitching to him. Through a litany of GIF’d zone plots, he shows how Bogaerts has started swinging — and missing — at pitches away.  Over at ESPN, Scott Lauber speaks more about that adjustment — or lack thereof. Bogaerts tells Lauber about the frustration that’s come with not being able to go to the opposite field as easily as he could last year, and the adjustment he and Chili Davis are trying to make.

The drop off, according to Collins, Lauber, FanGraphs and most likely you, who have watched him with your eyes, is (as you know) staggering. In the first half, Bogaerts was hitting 27 percent of his balls to the opposite field. That number’s dropped eight percentage points so far in the second half and is currently sitting at 19 percent for the season. In comparison, if you’re into such things, both his Pull% and Cent% have gone up four percentage points each. Just because we’re in the gritty numbers part of this paragraph, I’ll go ahead and mention that his K% went from 14.6 in the first half to 20.7 in the second. While he’s also never been one for taking a walk, his BB% has dropped two points.

Brian MacPherson at the Providence Journal talked about Bogaerts’ slump at length, specifically about how the shortstop is still trying to attack outside pitches with the same swing he used to pull the ones he got on the inner half. Bogaerts is on pace to have 74 more plate appearances this season, according to Baseball Prospectus, which would give him roughly 60 more at-bats than he had last year. The Red Sox, if you didn’t hear, had a grueling second half (and even in the first half, his lack of rest was a seemingly continual discussion) so it’s conceivable that he’s just really tired. Playing in 140-150 baseball games a year is a lot. Unfortunately, with the team in the thick of a pennant race, there’s not a lot of time to rest your All-Star shortstop.

Quick Hits

Andrew Benintendi and his perfect head of hair have returned from the DL. Ben Buchanan explains why that’s obviously a good thing. Personally, a Benintendi-Bradley-Betts outfield is too fun for me to root for a Benintendi-Chris Young platoon dynamic, but Buchanan makes a good argument for the why that’s probably the move. With that said, the Orioles are all of a sudden only one game behind in the standings, and while the Sox would love to bring Benintendi back slowly, how much time in a very-real, very-scary pennant race can you commit to slowly bringing back an outfielder who was hitting .324/.365/.485? If you want to back #FireFarrell, by all means, do it, but I for one am glad that he’s making that decision and not me. I will be over here backing #ImGladFarrellsMakingThatDecisionAndNotMe while hoping that overly-wordy, forced-joke of a hashtag doesn’t come back to bite me later (lookin’ at you, bullpen).

I also recently wrote that “at worst, Yoan Moncada is a pinch runner” so now I feel like I owe you all a personal hand-written apology. The learning curve is a steep one, Emily McCarthy writes. Should the Red Sox make the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine seeing Moncada have the type of impact that Jacoby Ellsbury did in ’07 or Bogaerts did in ’13.  Nine straight strikeouts and a base-running blunder was certainly an eye sore, albeit probably an overhyped one. He could still provide some speed during the postseason and somehow here I am once again telling you that at worst, Yoan Moncada is a pinch runner so that’ll wrap it up.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Given all that, you can see that this three-gamer in Toronto is pretty important. We here at BP Boston aren’t typically in the habit of previewing every series. Maybe we should be, but the season is so long and there are only so many John Farrell jokes and on-pace-for stats one person can legally be subjected to over a six-month span. So we mostly don’t. But this! This is an exception, because this is very important. It’s not the playoffs, but if you wanted to look at the next 23 games as a series between the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees, you wouldn’t be all that wrong. So, with that out of the way, hello. I’m Matt and together we’re going to preview the heck out of this series.

SERIES NOTES

1. The Blue Jays starters have the fourth-best ERA in baseball this season and the best in the American League. The Red Sox are tenth on that list.

2. Over the past 30 days, Red Sox starters have the second-best ERA in baseball and the best in the American League. The Blue Jays are 15th on that list.

3. Make some sense out of points 1 and 2, please. I double dog dare you.

4. Reigning AL MVP Josh Donaldson is at it again, and by “it” I mean being incredibly good. Has he been better than Red Sox MVP hopeful Mookie Betts? By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Betts has been better.

5. By WARP, and both commonly used measurements of WAR, Mike Trout has been better than Betts though so, please people, I love Mookie Betts too, but can we give the best player in baseball the best player award?

6. Who is the starting third baseman for the Red Sox? Yoan Moncada was a 21-year-old prospect in Double-A, then he was the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox, and now he’s a 21-year-old prospect with a lousy albeit small batting record and a seat on the bench. For now it looks like Travis Shaw’s job to lose.

7. Can Shaw lose it again? Considering his body of work you’d sure think so, but where does Farrell go now? Moncada again? Maybe for a short period of time but you have to think Farrell will try harder to keep both feet out of his mouth by declaring the rookie the unquestioned starter again. Maybe Aaron Hill has something left in the tank? Maybe Aaron Hill has a tank! That could be helpful.

8. The Red Sox bullpen has been mediocre this year and downright bad recently but consider: the return of Koji from the DL (one perfect inning pitched, two strikeouts) and the new and improved Joe Kelly (three IP, five hits, no runs, five strikeouts, no walks) might just be the keys to… drat. I almost made it through that sentence with a straight face.

9. It’s true Koji and probably Kelly to a lesser extent could help the bullpen, but that’s mostly because they couldn’t make it worse. There’s no harm in flicking lit matches at your neighbor’s house but if it’s already engulfed in flames. Flick all you want.

10. The Jays bullpen has been about as lousy as Boston’s. The differences seem to be three:

    1. The Red Sox pen has been hurt by walks

    2. The Blue Jays pen has been hurt by home runs

    3. Roberto Osuna, who has given up seven homers in 60 innings, has been better than Craig Kimbrel, who has walked 22 in 44.1 innings.

    4. You see what I’m saying here.

11. Both teams crush the snot out of the ball.

12. The Red Sox crush more snot out of more balls, making them better snot-crushers out of balls. Their certificate is surely in the mail.

GAME 1: Rick Porcello vs. Marco Estrada

1. You have to go back to July 24 to find the last time Rick Porcello gave up four or more runs in a start. Before that, you have to back to June 23. So, fun with arbitrary endpoints: since June 24, Rick Porcello has given up three or fewer runs in every start except one.

2. Marco Estrada was the pitching surprise of last season. He had one of the lowest BABIPs in baseball history and then he started pulling the same garbage again this season. But then the second half of the season rolled around and, despite most of his underlying numbers looking the same, Estrada’s ERA has shot up from below three to 5.00. The baseball gods do exist and they find Marco Estrada’s precious ERA hilarious.

3. David Ortiz will not be pitching today, but he will be back in the lineup for the first time since last Sunday. Big Papi has 23 games left and, maybe, hopefully a few more if the Sox can win a few more of those 23 than they lose. Don’t think Big Papi doesn’t know that. I’d suggest buckling that safety belt.

GAME 2: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. J.A. Hap

1. What is Eduardo Rodriguez? Here are his runs allowed for all his starts dating back to July 27: 3, 1, 3, 1, 0, 5, 0. He’s either been amazing (two shutouts, one cut short by injury), very good (multiple one run starts), or a mess. In the first of those three run performances he didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, and in the second he didn’t make it out of the fourth. Then he carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning last start. I suppose this is what promise looks like up close. If he gets on a roll, oh gosh, baseball would need to watch the heck out.

2. Happ is, as far as I can tell, Estrada. He’s been very good, much better in fact, than anyone had a right to expect. But, like Estrada, over the past month he’s come apart a little bit, mostly due to giving up home runs.

3. There’s a narrative out there that the Red Sox aren’t as good against left-handers, which would seem to give an advantage to Happ, but it’s not true. The Red Sox have an .820 OPS against right-handers and an .811 OPS against left-handers. Not that OPS is the greatest statistic but it paints the picture just fine.

4. At this point Red Sox will have faced two of Toronto’s best three starters and have a very real shot at winning both games.

GAME 3: Clay Buchholz vs. Aaron Sanchez

1. This is the game where Toronto has the clear advantage in the pitching matchup. Sanchez hasn’t been as dominant of late but he’s been almost as effective. The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks have come up, both of which could be a result of him plowing past 170 innings (he’s two thirds short), about 35 beyond his career high. The Jays have been toying with the idea of shutting Sanchez down, moving to a six-man rotation, skipping his starts, and/or sending him to outer space, all with the intent of limiting his innings. Problem is, they’re in a dogfight for the AL East and indeed the playoffs and they need this guy.

2. Clay Buchholz stars in, As The World Turns. Buchholz went from sure second starter to back end of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the rotation guy, to bullpen cast-off, to back of the bullpen guy, to vital rotation piece. The latest incarnation of The Clay is indebted to to Steven Wright’s injured shoulder for the opportunity, but his non-injured shoulder for seizing it. In his last three starts, Buchholz has pitched 19 innings, given up three runs, struck out 18, and walked two. He’s pitching like the guy he was supposed to be at the beginning of the year. Remember Derek Lowe’s 2004 season? How weird would that be?

The totality of the series is going to result in one of three things: the Blue Jays sweeping and taking a two game lead over Boston, the Red Sox sweeping and taking a four game lead over Toronto, or a split of some sort keeping things pretty close. In fact, the Red Sox are in a very good position because by winning just one of these, they insulate themselves from losing a share of first place.

Of course, they could do much better than that. We’ve waited all year for this team to realize its potential and kick things into a higher gear. This is as good an opportunity as they’ve yet seen. This year’s Red Sox have specialized in squandering good opportunities but they still have a few chances left. The season isn’t over yet.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

Last time I checked in with Read Sox, we were welcoming Andrew Benintendi to the majors by appreciating his success and interviewing a host of the outfielder’s relatives. Now, Benintendi is hurt and the new top prospect du jour is Yoan Moncada. And, while he has a few hits in the bigs under his belt, the theme in analysis of the young third baseman has been his proficiency to not hit baseballs he swings at. In his past two games, Moncada has made seven at-bats and has struck out in — oof — all seven of them. This rather unsustainable K-rate has been the subject of much fodder on the Boston-based interwebs.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe checked in with this analysis of Moncada, comparing his swing-and-miss to the strikeout frequency of other recent Red Sox prospects. The Globe’s Nick Cafardo wrote about the young Cuban as a work in progress, albeit a very good one. Rob Bradford of WEEI took a similar tack, discussing the ups-and-downs that have befallen the first week of Moncada’s major-league career. Bradford poses an interesting question: can the Red Sox, in the midst of such a tight division race, afford to be patient as Moncada adjusts to a new level of play? ESPN’s Scott Lauber says the answer is no, and that the team needs to pump the brakes with their newest and youngest third baseman.

While Moncada has been at least slightly disappointing in a miniscule sample size, it’s certainly worth noting that this result was not entirely unforeseen. Of the two wunderkids in the Sox farm system, Andrew Benintendi was viewed all season as the one more prepared for the jump to the bigs. Moncada sat out a full season after defecting from Cuba and had less than a year-and-a-half of experience in the minors before his call-up. Meanwhile, Benintendi played two years of high-level college ball in the SEC, and did so very well, before being drafted and working through the team’s system.

So far, Moncada has struck out in over half of his at-bats (10 out of 18) and opposing pitchers seem to have picked up on his trouble with off-speed pitches. Per Baseball Info Solutions via FanGraphs, Moncada has been thrown hard pitches just 56.6 percent of the time (with cutters included). He has been on the receiving end of sliders and curves in a combined 30.2 percent of pitches. Including changeups, almost half of the pitches coming his way have been off-speed, and the results have been less than thrilling; his whiff rate on breaking pitches is more than double that on fastballs thus far.

Moncada will get better and will learn how to hit off-speed pitches. All of these statistics should be taken with an industrial-sized pile of salt because of the minuscule sample size. And regardless, Moncada’s electrifying athleticism and speed merit him a spot on the roster both now and if the Red Sox make the postseason. It’s worth noting that temporarily deposed (and now maybe reinstated?) third baseman Travis Shaw has played for the past week like a man trying to keep his job. Shaw added a homer and three RBIs in a 7-2 win over San Diego on Wednesday night with Moncada mercifully given the day off after the seven straight punchouts. Shaw’s viability as an everyday third baseman will have a lot of bearing on Moncada’s playing time as long the growing pains continue for the 21-year-old. And right now, hitting 8-for-17 with a pair of dingers and nine RBI in his past five games, Shaw looks more than viable.

In the past, with the team in contention, the Sox have been the beneficiaries of top prospects who perform admirably under the bright lights of an October pennant race. Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007 and Xander Bogaerts in 2013 were called up and performed immediately. So the less-than-perfect start for Moncada is disappointing in the context of a few who came before him.

Sox fans may have to settle for just one top prospect (hopefully) lighting it up down the stretch; Andrew Benintendi has begun fielding fly balls and seems to be making good progress in returning from his knee injury.

Quick Hits

A lot of Red Sox fans don’t really like Clay Buchholz. Shocking, I know. For much of his Fenway career, the right-hander has infuriated the Faithful, alternately performing well but getting hurt and, uh, performing less than well. He has a team option at $13 million for 2017 that, in June, seemed like a hilariously improbable proposition. Now, well, we’re reading and writing about how smart and inevitable exercising that option seems to be, like this article by Ben Buchanan of Over the Monster. Buchholz has ma– I’m about to compliment Clay Buchholz, please send aid immediately — Buchholz has made the difficult shift to and from the bullpen very comfortably, and now boasts a 2.05 ERA in his past six outings, three of them starts. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, Buchholz figures to play an important role on this team down the stretch. Everyone strap in.

Maybe it wasn’t a great idea for Steven Wright to be used as a pinch-runner. Maybe Steven Wright should be able to take a lead off second base without hurting his shoulder and jeopardizing his season. Maybe I get some twisted satisfaction out of blaming John Farrell for things. Maybe these are all true statements. Cafardo wrote about Wright’s injury, and the opportunity it afforded Buchholz to get back into the Red Sox rotation.

David Ortiz commented recently on Donald Trump’s proposed immigration policy, saying “it’s not fair” to immigrants. This, predictably, has gotten picked up by media outlets around the country and made a multitude of headlines. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald commended Ortiz for making his opinion known, and implored athletes to do so more often.

Photo by Gary A. Vazquez/USA Today Sports Images