An ugly start from Justin Masterson and a dearth of timely hitting left the Red Sox on the wrong side of a 5-3 loss to the Rays.
Top Play (WPA): Joey Butler’s bases loaded single (+.184) broke a 2-2 tie in the fifth inning, giving the Rays enough runs to fend off multiple failed Red Sox rallies. It also ended a disastrous start from Masterson, one in which he surrendered 14 base runners — seven hits, six walks, one hit-by-pitch — in less than five innings of work.
Pablo Sandoval’s eighth-inning walk to load the bases with one out (+.153) was the second biggest positive play of the game by WPA, and believe it or not, it actually gave the Red Sox a 55 percent chance to win the game despite trailing 4-3.
Bottom Play (WPA): After Sandoval’s walk, both Daniel Nava (-.196), pinch-hitting for Allen Craig, and Brock Holt (-.197) grounded out weakly to first base, allowing reliever Kevin Jepsen and the Rays to escape the eighth inning with a one run lead.
Key Moment: The super obvious answer here is that eighth inning, where Nava and Holt failed to make the Rays pay in a bases loaded, one out jam. Instead, since there’s not a whole lot left to say about that, we’ll focus on a managerial decision John Farrell made in the same inning. After Mike Napoli singled to left field to give Boston runners at first and second with one out, Farrell decided to pinch-run for David Ortiz with newly acquired waiver claim Luis Jimenez.
I haven’t seen Jimenez run, but he’s almost certainly faster than Ortiz. Then again, he isn’t exactly a burner. Last year, for example, he stole just 12 bases in 117 Triple-A games. His career high in stolen bases in a single season is 21, way back in Single-A ball in 2010, and he was caught 10 times that year. That said, he surely gave the Red Sox a better chance to score on any type of single or eventual sacrifice fly-type situation.
Of course, after the inning ended without him scoring, the Red Sox were left with a less than ideal situation: Jimenez slotted in as the new DH, batting third in the place of Ortiz. Naturally, Ortiz’s vacated spot in the lineup came up in the bottom of the ninth, with men on first and second and two outs, and naturally Jimenez, who PECOTA projects for a .239 TAv, hit a game-ending dribbler in front of Rays’ catcher Rene Rivera.
This is not really a second guess of Farrell (well, okay, maybe it sort of is), because without running some type of complex simulation, these kind of moves are difficult to judge. I guess my main gripe is Jimenez’s speed — or lack thereof. Based on his size (he’s listed at 6’1”, 205), position (he’s primarily a third basemen), and stolen base numbers, he’s probably not that much faster than Ortiz. And even if he is, how many situations there are likely to develop that would allow Jimenez to show off his superior speed?
When you consider the difference between Jimenez’s and Ortiz’s bats, plus the fact that there wasn’t much left on the bench to pinch-hit for Jimenez if the situation called for it, maybe it would’ve been best to just to stick with Big Papi there.
Trend to Watch: Hey, let’s talk about something positive. How much power is Mookie Betts going to hit for this year? Last night, he launched his third home run in two games, raising his season total to five to go along with seven doubles.
Betts doesn’t look like a power hitter, but he hits the ball really hard and has been crushing inside fastballs, a combination that should allow him to continue to wear out the Monster seats. Betts wasn’t known for his power as a prospect — in fact, it was often viewed as one of his weaknesses — though he did record 101 extra base hits in his last 236 games in the minor leagues.
Betts probably isn’t going to be visiting the American League home run leaderboard anytime soon, but it’s hard not to get excited about Boston’s young center fielder showing off yet another skill to go along with his defense, speed, and contact ability. If the power sticks — even like 15 or 20 home run power, with plenty of doubles and triples mixed in — Betts has a chance to become a perennial Internet Baseball Awards Player of the Year contender, non-Mike Trout division, before it’s all said and done.
Coming Next: The Red Sox get a day off on Thursday before heading to Toronto for a three-game set that kicks off a 10-game road trip that’ll finish up on the west coast.
The Blue Jays have scored 155 runs, more than any team in baseball. They’ve also allowed 146 runs, more than any team in baseball that doesn’t call Coors Field home (the Red Sox have allowed more runs per game). Don’t be surprised if the Sox and Jays square off for three low-scoring pitcher’s duels because, well, baseball.
(But, really, expect some runs.)
Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images