We head into the weekend with mere hours to go before the 4PM trade deadline on this splendid Friday morning. The trade deadline has not disappointed thus far, with many big name players switching uniforms. So far the Red Sox have not partaken in the excitement, which is frustrating when all you want to see is change for a club that has lost 11 of their last 14 games. This series vs. Tampa Bay mercifully brings an end to a stretch of 15 consecutive games without a day-off. It’s not the team that I am worried about during this long stretch of futility so much as I worry about the collective health of Red Sox Nation. We could all use a little rest—especially from watching Rick Porcello.
Tampa Bay Rays – Current Record: 51-52
The Rays have been largely disappointing this season mostly due to a combination of weak hitting and injuries to key rotation cogs Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly. Since the All-Star break the Rays have scuffled a bit going 5-7 even dropping two out of three to the lowly Phillies. In their last series they were able to get back on track vs the Tigers winning two of three and contributing to Dave Dombrowski’s decision to trade his rentals. Not much has changed with this team and Boston continues to own a 5-4 edge in the season series. The chance is there for Boston to really challenge for the fourth place spot in the division!
Probables
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Erasmo Ramirez, Friday, 7:10 p.m.
Last time out vs. Detroit we saw the #Ed that we have grown most accustomed to seeing—Good #Ed. He went seven strong innings, striking out six and allowing just one earned run. Over his 11 starts this season Rodriguez has posted eight such starts where he has given up two or fewer runs and three starts where he’s been shellacked to the tune of nine, six, and seven earned. This will be Rodriguez’s first start vs. the weak-hitting Rays, who have struggled offensively all season long, batting just .238 as a team and placing 26th in the league in runs scored. Versus lefties the Rays have been a bit better, batting .253, but I still think this is a lineup Rodriguez should exploit.
Going for the Rays is Erasmo Ramirez who, after beginning the year in the bullpen, has been a very nice surprise. The undersized righty has posted a solid 3.74 ERA with an excellent WHIP of 1.08. His last time out, Ramirez was roughed up a bit by Baltimore, giving up five earned runs. That marked his first poor outing since May 24th. Like Rodriguez, Ramirez has also not faced his opposition this year so this pitching matchup should be the best of the series. Slight advantage Eddy and the Sox.
Joe Kelly vs. Matt Moore, Saturday, 1:35 p.m.
It should be crystal clear to everyone involved with Red Sox baseball operations by now that Joe Kelly and his 5.94 ERA do not a valid starter make. The fact that John Farrell continues to run Kelly out there to be sacrificed is beyond me. No one is saying that Kelly doesn’t have a place on the team, he absolutely does, but that place is in the bullpen. I don’t understand dragging this out any longer, especially when Brian Johnson or Henry Owens could be getting valuable reps.
Not that it matters who Joe Kelly will oppose but, for the sake of being through, he goes against talented lefty Matt Moore. Moore is fresh off of his Tommy John surgery and since returning he has been downright terrible posting a 7.61 ERA over five starts. Even with his poor track record this season it is hard for me to be objective here because Kelly is bound to spot the obligatory five runs by the third inning even to this band of soft hitting weaklings. The edge here goes to no one because all who watch this matchup lose.
Wade Miley vs. Nate Karns, Sunday, 1.35 p.m.
In the final matchup of the series Miley gets the ball for the second time this year vs Tampa Bay. In his previous outing he was able to blank the Rays over five-and-two-thirds, earning his first victory of the year back in April. While he hasn’t been great, Miley has been better so far in the second half, posting a pedestrian 3.89 ERA. On this team he’s practically an ace. In his last outing he was blasted for seven earned runs by the red-hot White Sox but I think he will get back on track.
Opposing Miley is Nate Karns who has finally gotten a full slate of starts in the big leagues in 2015 thanks to the Rays’ rash of injuries. Karns has electric stuff but in the past his tendency to give up the long ball and get loose with his command has done him in. In his last start vs. the Red Sox, Karns gave up five earned runs in a no decision. In two starts since the All-Star break he has only allowed one earned run over 11 innings pitched and has been talked about as a potential trade chip. This game is a pure toss-up with the slight edge going to Karns.
Opposing Lineup
John Jaso – DH – L
Steven Souza – RF – R
Evan Longoria – 3B – R
James Loney – 1B – L
Logan Forsythe – 2B – R
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS – S
Curt Casali – C – R
Joey Butler – LF – R
Kevin Kiermaier – CF – L
As I alluded to earlier, this lineup is not going to keep any opposing pitchers up at night and presents little threat with the long ball outside of Steven Souza and Evan Longoria. Forsythe is certainly worth mentioning since he is tied with Longoria at 11 home runs and leads the team in batting average, OBP, and hits. As much as I like what Forsythe has been able to do this year he remains on the few bright spots for a lineup whose cleanup hitter, James Loney, has just three home runs and a .255 batting average.
The one player I am interested to watch here is Curt Casali, who has been getting some playing time lately and making the most of it. His .283 batting average to go along with seven homers is impressive even with his 31 percent strikeout rate.
Recap
If there is an opponent that the Red Sox can handle right now it has to be the Tampa Bay Rays. This team struggles to score and has had pitching performances nearly as erratic as the Red Sox over the last week. If you are looking for pretty baseball and shiny recently traded stars do not watch this series. However if you are pleasantly surprised by mediocrity we may just be the only show in town. I say the Rays take two of three.
Photo by Tommy Gilligan/USA Today Sports Images