It’s Friday! Time for another Weekend Preview.
The Red Sox will continue playing out the string this weekend in Detroit. Over the next couple of months they are essentially holding major league tryouts for a few of the 2016 roster spots. Accordingly, a lot of the focus will be on the pitching. There is at least one spot in the rotation available, and the bullpen needs to be overhauled. Players like Steven Wright, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Matt Barnes, and Joe Kelly will all have chances to shape their 2016 fortunes over the next 50 games. On the non-pitching side of things Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. are the primary players of interest. These two need to be playing everyday, or at least four out of every five the rest of the way. This means that Alejandro De Aza will find himself on the bench more than he should given his performance, but that is necessary for the betterment of the team going forward. I would also consider giving Hanley Ramirez and David Ortiz plenty of days off through September in order to avoid adding more miles to their legs and to spare them from any injury that could arise. I recognize that these decisions are more difficult than I am making them out to be, especially with established veteran players like Hanley and Ortiz, but I think they are decisions that are in the best interest of the organization and should be treated as such. Let’s see what some of the kids can do, give the older guys adequate rest, and incorporate the information into the re-structuring that needs to happen this offseason.
Detroit Tigers – Record (53 – 55) – Projected Record (77 – 85)
The Tigers have fallen to 13.5 games back of the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central, and four games back of the second Wild Card spot. While the Wild Card seems attainable, BP has the Tigers’ playoff odds at a season-low 6.8%, and the teams they are battling with for the spot (Blue Jays, Astros, Angels, Orioles, Rangers) have more raw talent. The moves the Tigers made at the deadline indicate they understood this and have thrown in the towel on 2015. With Dave Dombrowski getting forced out this week (or choosing to leave or whatever the case was), the Tigers are under new general management and are planning for 2016. This change is problematic for Brad Ausmus, who could be on his way out of town at season’s end but still needs to captain the sinking ship for two more months. The best process for Ausmus and the best process for the organization probably don’t align but, at this point, that is part of the gig. Like the Red Sox, the Tigers will aim to use the next two months to get a look at some of the younger players on their roster and to sort out what their pitching staff, most notably their bullpen, will look like next year. Ausmus will have to toe the line.
Probables:
Game 1: Joe Kelly vs. Daniel Norris, Friday 7:08pm EDT
I wonder how long the Joe Kelly-as-starter experiment is going to last. I have been clear with my stance that it should have ended months ago. In his last five starts he has yet to get through six innings and allowed the following run totals: 5, 5, 4, 5, 2. Nevertheless, I suppose at this point, with the season lost, there is not much harm in continuing to send him out to the mound as a starter in the hopes that he figures it out. If he doesn’t, which really looks like the safer bet, then he slots in as a reliever for 2016.
The Red Sox will get a look at one of the Tigers’ shiny, new pitchers. Norris, who came to the Tigers from the Blue Jays in the David Price deadline deal, has been inconsistent in his six big league starts this season. He made the Jays’ starting rotation out of Spring Training, but struggled in three of his four starts in April earning a demotion to Triple-A Buffalo. The struggles continued at the lower level (4.27 ERA, 3.55 FIP in 16 starts). Despite this, the Tigers put him in their rotation immediately and Norris responded by making the decision look good in his first outing for the club. On Sunday in Camden Yards, the lefty held the Orioles to one run on four hits and a walk in 7.1 innings, striking out five along the way. Left-handed pitching has given the Red Sox some trouble this year, so Norris presents a series-opening hurdle.
Game 2: Wade Miley vs. Alfredo Simon, Saturday 7:08pm EDT
Wade Miley is in some way the last man standing from the Opening Day rotation. He is the only starter from the original group that has avoided the disabled list, and/or time in Pawtucket. The consistency of taking the ball every fifth day has some value, even when the performance is not sparkling. Speaking of performance, Miley’s fielding-independent number (4.08) suggests he has pitched better than his ERA (4.55), but both numbers are worse than league average. Other than one blowup against the White Sox last week, he has pitched fairly well lately, and will look to keep the trend moving in the right direction this weekend.
I mentioned in my preview of the previous Tigers’ series that Simon’s season has involved a good half and a bad half. His first nine starts were solid (2.67 ERA, 3.54 FIP), but then his next nine awful (6.99 ERA, 4.62 FIP). Since then he has continued the trend with one good start and one bad one. The good one came against the Red Sox, in which he threw six innings, only allowed one run, five hits, walking two and striking out four. But in Simon’s next outing the Orioles touched him up for four runs in 5.2 innings, hitting two home runs in the process and only striking out once. Hopefully the Red Sox fare better against Mr. Simon this weekend than they did two weeks ago.
Game 3: Henry Owens vs. Justin Verlander, Sunday 1:08pm EDT
Owens, making his second big league start on Sunday, was a mixed bag in his first outing against the Yankees on Tuesday. He showed great breaking pitches that made good hitters look foolish on a few swings, but he struggled with fastball command. Yankees third baseman Chase Headley was more impressed with Owens’ poise and execution than he was his stuff, but still thought Owens will be an effective starter going forward. As noted, Owens has an opportunity to demonstrate that he should be in the 2016 rotation. Getting deeper into the game than he did in New York and showing he can successfully navigate a lineup three or more times will be critical for his future. Seeing how players like Owens perform at the highest level and make adjustments as they learn how to attack major league hitters will help make the remainder of the season enjoyable.
In limited innings this season, Verlander has not been his former self. The 5.05 ERA and 4.71 FIP are both career highs, but are both down considerably from what they were two weeks ago when the Red Sox saw him. That start against the Red Sox was strong. He held them to one run on seven hits over his eight innings. He then backed that up with another solid start against an AL East opponent, holding the Rays to one run on four hits over eight innings. The Royals knocked him around a bit in his most recent start, scattering ten hits and scoring five runs in his seven innings of work. Critically, though, Verlander has not walk a batter in his last three starts but has struck out 18: a ratio that is much more reminiscent of the Verlander from a few years back.
Opposing Lineup:
The Tigers’ offense has slipped since the Red Sox saw them two weeks ago. Then, they were a top five group, but a couple of tough weeks and the trade of slugger Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline has resulted in them dropping down a few spots to 11th in TAv (.263). They are still without Miguel Cabrera, and given their decision to be sellers at the deadline it seems short-sighted to rush him back into playing. With that said, this lineup, with Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, and Ian Kinsler, can still put up big numbers. They present another test for the lost-at-sea Red Sox pitching staff.
|
Player |
Position |
Hand |
TAv |
|
|
1. |
Anthony Gose |
CF |
L |
.239 |
|
2. |
Jose Iglesias |
SS |
R |
.257 |
|
3. |
Ian Kinsler |
2B |
R |
.262 |
|
4. |
Victor Martinez |
DH |
S |
.228 |
|
5. |
J.D. Martinez |
RF |
R |
.308 |
|
6. |
James McCann |
C |
R |
.242 |
|
7. |
Nick Castellanos |
3B |
R |
.244 |
|
8. |
Alex Avila |
1B |
L |
.219 |
|
9. |
Rajai Davis |
LF |
R |
.256 |
Jefry Marte (.275 TAv) is another option at first base. He has played well in his opportunities, ending up keeping a spot on the roster over Marc Krauss who started in one of the games against the Red Sox two weeks ago. Tyler Collins (.266 TAv in 20 PA), Josh Wilson (.309 TAv in 23 PA) and Andrew Romine (.263 TAv in 105 PA) represent other decent options off the bench.
Recap
The outcomes of these games don’t really matter to either team, as both squads are well back of a playoff spot and in the midst of sorting out what they may have for next year. Then again, losing could help with getting a higher draft pick, so maybe the outcomes do matter, just not in the traditional sense. Regardless, as noted the pitching for both sides has been problematic this season, especially the bullpens, so expect a fair amount of offense over the three games. Watching the Red Sox’s pitchers get knocked around is beyond tiresome, but if there are going to be lots of balls in play, having Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo play in Comerica Park’s expansive outfield could be a lot of fun. Silver linings, folks.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/USA Today Sports Images