Rebuilding the Red Sox: Replacing the Irreplaceable David Ortiz

We’ll start by saying what should be obvious. Just as the Red Sox didn’t replace Ted Williams, and Simon and Garfunkel didn’t replace Simon (“Simon and Garfunkel Without Simon!”), the Red Sox won’t replace David Ortiz. Ortiz is the very definition of irreplaceable. He is the Red Sox, and will be at least through the 2016 season. But come 2017 Ortiz will be out of baseball and the Red Sox will need someone who can hit in the middle of their lineup.

While Ortiz himself is irreplaceable, replacing his production is no small task either. First, it might be helpful to look at what Ortiz has done over the last few seasons, to know what it is the Red Sox will need to find on the field. Since 2011 (picked by the way for no particularly good reason), Ortiz has hit .292/.382/.556. That’s an OPS+ of 152. Guess how many players had an OPS+ of 150 since 2011. Seven is the answer. Seven guys. In all of baseball. Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Ortiz, Jose Bautista, Paul Goldschmidt, and Giancarlo Stanton. That’s a small list and it should give you an idea of what a force Ortiz has been for the Red Sox. So how do you replace that?

Well, you don’t, but you still have to try. There are a couple routes to go. First, you do it by assembling a stronger roster. No holes. Not everyone needs to be a star, but everybody needs to be at least league average. Last season, for example, the Red Sox were not a particularly strong defensive team. Improving the team defense lessens the loss of Ortiz. The same could be said of the bullpen. So better relievers lessen the loss of Ortiz. But that’s not really what you were looking for. You were probably looking for a big bat the Red Sox can get that will jump into the team’s lineup and crush opposing pitching. We’ll all take his hand and cross the street and we’ll barely even need to look over our shoulder at Ortiz as he heads down a different road on his way home.

So fine. Here: Joey Votto.

Well, you asked. Votto was an MVP candidate this past season following a season filled with injury and disappointment. But now he’s back! Or so the thinking goes. Thing is, Votto is owed $180 million over the next eight seasons, and it’s not like he’s 28 now. He’ll be 32 next season. He might be worth it. He’s pretty great. He put up a .459 OBP in almost 700 plate appearances this season! He’d fit right in at first base and then DH could become a rotating position for guys who need days off from the field, kind of like it’s used on most other teams. But that’s a pretty big contract to take on. That’s probably what the sensible folks call over-correcting. Lose Ortiz, grab the biggest, most expensive guy and bear hug him for the next decade. It could work. But it could really not. And if it doesn’t that’s a huge problem, arguably bigger than losing Ortiz, as it would handcuff the team for a long time. Still though. Joey Votto. He’s pretty good.

But let’s move on because Votto isn’t very likely. If we’re talking likely, we’re probably talking Hanley Ramirez. He’s likely because he’s already signed through 2018 with a vesting option. He’d fit in great at DH because he’s already essentially a DH right now. The problem is (there’s always a problem or this wouldn’t be any fun) he didn’t hit. Well, okay, two problems. He didn’t hit in 2015 but even if he does hit in 2016, Ortiz isn’t retiring now. He’s retiring next year. That means Ramirez needs to play defense for a whole season! Some people are starting to come around on Ramirez as a first baseman who moves to DH in 2017, but those people are forgetting just how horrible Ramirez was in left field. Maybe he can play first, I don’t know. First base is different than left field. If he can, well, there’s your easy solution. Maybe not the best, but  the easiest. If he can’t — and there’s a whole season’s worth of evidence saying he can’t learn a new defensive position — here we are again with season-long sadness! Only now we don’t have a first baseman beyond Travis Shaw. Shaw is nice and all, but here’s what he hit last season in Triple-A: .249/.318/.3you don’t need to see anymore because yuck. I hope you can see the downside of this plan by now.

Davis, like Votto, is a $200 million solution to what is at present a $16 million problem.

So let’s think longer term, but not Joey Votto longer term, i.e. the longest term. If we’re just looking to replace Ortiz the DH, there’s any number of players they could sign. Jose Bautista will be a free agent and will be 36 by then. Carlos Beltran will be 704 years old, but presumably still hitting, once his robotic knees have warmed up in mid-June. There will be options is the point. Some good, older players on the downside of their careers will be on the market and the Red Sox should be able to get a slightly above average bat for a season or two commitment.

The 2017 free agent class is pretty weak, though. Perhaps the Red Sox need to bring in a bat now, like Chris Davis. Davis could slot into the middle of the lineup this season, and ease the transition into an Ortiz-less existence. Like Votto though, that’s a $200 million solution to what is at present a $16 million problem. That’s not to say it’s the wrong solution, because that’s just how good David Ortiz was. Getting the best hitter on the free agent market will cost $200+ million and even that won’t be enough to replace him.

Maybe by 2017 a stopgap won’t be necessary because the team will be able to fill the vacancy from within. Sam Travis seems to be the logical choice for this particular kind of wishcasting, although he’s a first baseman, so again, you’re left looking to fill the DH slot (though that would be true of Votto as well). Rafael Devers is another young player rocketing up through the system. His power is legitimate and he’s considered one of the Red Sox best prospects. If he makes it to the majors before Dave Dombrowski can trade him we might be in for a treat. The same goes for Yoan Moncada, likely a third baseman or outfielder down the line, but first base is a possibility as well. It’s debatable whether or not Moncada or Devers will be ready to step into a full time position by 2017. Likely not by the beginning of the season anyway, at least as things stand now.

So that leaves us with the big guys (Votto, Davis), and the little guys (Travis), and the over-the-hill guys (Bautista, etc). The Red Sox do not lack options, at least. And that’s good. Because the day Ortiz says good-bye is rapidly approaching.