It’s only February, but the 2016 Red Sox already look like an improved team from last season. This offseason, they bolstered their starting rotation and bullpen – their two biggest weaknesses – and improved their outfield by simply plucking Hanley Ramirez out of left and moving him to first base.
But not everything appears rosy in Boston. There are still question marks littering the Red Sox’s roster, many of which won’t be answered until we get into the season. Some players will inevitably underachieve and deficiencies within the roster will emerge. That is typical for most major-league teams, especially ones coming off a second-straight last-place finish.
There is, however, one negative that seems certain: the Sox’s infield defense could be a major flaw next season; perhaps the team’s biggest.
The Red Sox boast two of last season’s worst defensive players at the corners in Ramirez and third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Xander Bogaerts and Dustin Pedroia could be a solid tandem up the middle. But given that Bogaerts is still unproven and Pedroia appears to be in decline, they may just tread on mediocrity. That won’t be enough to protect the Red Sox from the surefire liability that Ramirez and Sandoval represent.
So, just how bad might the Red Sox infield be next season? Let’s first look more in depth at what each player brings to get an idea.
Hanley Ramirez
What the numbers say: Ramirez finished with a -15.7 FRAA in his first (and last) season in left field in 2015, and ranked as the worst defensive player in baseball in various other statistical measurements. Believe it or not, Ramirez actually posted a worse FRAA in his final year at shortstop – his primary position – in 2014, posting a -16.2 mark. That suggests that a move to the infield won’t do much to make him more serviceable defensively.
Eye test: The numbers don’t lie here. Ramirez was historically bad in left last season, so much so that it inspired a legendary “Ask BP Boston” post in September. He couldn’t read a fly ball for his life, and his hustle and overall effort was suspect. The former may not matter at first base, but the effort part does, as well as natural instincts and decision-making ability, something Ramirez hasn’t shown at any position in recent years.
Perhaps the best comparison for Ramirez would be Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera started his career as a third baseman, saw some time in left field and eventually settled at first base in Detroit. But he was never any good. He has a career -4.4 UZR in six seasons at first base, although that is far better than his -42.2 mark in over 100 fewer innings at third. Cabrera has, however, had some bad individual seasons as a first baseman, posting negative FRAAs at first base from 2008-12.
If you want reasons to be encouraged, Cabrera’s last two seasons at first have been the best of his career defensively, as he posted a 7.0 FRAA and -0.1 UZR last season.
Perhaps a more likely comparison would be Marlins first baseman Justin Bour, who posted a -6.3 FRAA and -5.1 UZR.
Dustin Pedroia
What the numbers say: Pedroia appeared to regress last season, and the numbers back that up. Pedroia’s 2.5 FRAA last season was good, but not great, while his 2.1 UZR was the lowest of his career. His injury troubles over the last couple years and the standard aging curve for second basemen make it difficult to believe that this season will be better. In fact, it may only be getting worse from here.
Eye test: Pedroia may be one of the scrappiest and hardest-working second basemen out there and was for many years one of the elite defenders in the game. But at 32, time may be catching up with him. He’s still a dependable second baseman, but his range and ability to make tough plays diminished slightly last year.
Pedroia could be going down a similar path as Brandon Phillips, at least defensively. At 34, Phillips is still a solid second baseman, but has seen his numbers drop since entering his 30s. Last season he finished with a 0.2 FRAA, which follows last year’s -7.4 mark, and a 2.0 UZR, his lowest since 2006 and the fourth straight year in which it has declined.
Xander Bogaerts
What the numbers say: Bogaerts finished with a -1.4 FRAA, 1.0 UZR and committed 11 errors in his first full season as a big-league shortstop. That’s pretty good given the many doubters and how one could argue his growth at short was stunted by the Stephen Drew signing in 2014. He may not be elite, but he showed he can be a solid everyday shortstop.
Eye test: Bogaerts took some encouraging steps forward in his development, particularly with his range in both directions and ability to make difficult throws. But don’t count me among those sold after just one season. He still needs to prove he can do it consistently and limit his mistakes on plays he should be making if he wants to move into the top tier defensively.
Jose Iglesias was known far more for his glove than his bat coming up through the Red Sox’s system. Bogaerts finished with fairly similar defensive numbers as Iglesias, who sported a -6.6 FRAA and 2.3 UZR. (This is why no one fully trusts defensive metrics.) Although Bogaerts is far from a sure thing, it’s possible he’ll be Boston’s best infielder next season.
Pablo Sandoval
What the numbers say: Sandoval posted the second-worst FRAA of his career at -7.8 and his -16.9 UZR was the worst among all third basemen. It was as bad as it gets for Sandoval and the Red Sox, certainly as bad as it gets for any big-league third baseman.
Eye test: Sandoval looked as dreadful as the numbers suggest. The best example came on June 4 when he committed a pair of errors in an 8-4 Red Sox loss to the Twins, the biggest blunder coming in the ninth-inning when a catchable throw from Blake Swihart went through Sandoval’s legs and into the outfield, allowing the winning run to score. These types of mistakes weren’t rare occurrences. Sandoval often made easy plays look difficult, and that fact that he was slow and out of shape didn’t help him much in terms of mobility and making quick plays.
Sandoval’s horrendous campaign is most comparable to Yunel Escobar, who in his first full season at third base last year posted a -21.7 FRAA, -7.7 UZR and committed seven errors. Escobar has been playing at such a level defensively for the past five seasons, but this was by far his worst and one could argue was still not any worse than Sandoval.
To get more of a group-wide rather than individual comparison I looked at the FRAAs of each infielder on two of the three worst defensive teams from last season, according to park-adjusted defensive efficiency – the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies (the Sox were No. 2 with a -2.72 PADE) – and compared it to what the Red Sox have seen and will likely get from their infielders this season. It is an imperfect study given team PADEs encompass all positions, but the sample size doesn’t look good for the Sox nonetheless.
Colorado Rockies: -4.41 PADE
First base: Ben Paulsen – 116 games, -1.4 FRAA; Justin Morneau 49 games, -1.7 FRAA
Second base: D.J. LeMathieu – 150 games, -0.9 FRAA
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki – 87 games -2.9 FRAA; Jose Reyes – 47 games, 0.6 FRAA
Third base: Nolan Arenado – 157 games, 22.6 FRAA
The Rockies had only one truly great infielder in Arenado last season, but none of the players listed were as bad as Sandoval and Ramirez project to be. Overall, this was an average infield without any significant holes.
Philadelphia Phillies: -2.26 PADE
First base: Ryan Howard – 129 games, -2.0 FRAA
Second base: Cesar Hernandez – 127 games (88 at second), 8.5 FRAA; Chase Utley – 73 games (62 at second), -2.1 FRAA
Shortstop: Freddy Galvis – 151 games, -3.9 FRAA
Third base: Maikel Franco – 80 games (75 at third), -5.8 FRAA; Cody Asche – 129 games (51 at third), -5.3 FRAA
The Phillies were a bad team overall last season, and their infield defense didn’t help them much. Playing Hernandez over Utley proved to be an upgrade, but the rest of the infield struggled to perform even serviceably, and gives a more grim look at what the Red Sox could face in 2016.
The Sox have the makings of an ugly infield next season, largely because of just how unreliable the corner positions are going to be. Bogaerts and Pedroia appear good enough to man the middle of a solid infield, but it’s unlikely they’ll do enough to compensate for what the team will get out of Sandoval and Ramirez. The latter two’s play will largely dictate what kind of team the Sox will be defensively next season.
The infield defense won’t make or break the 2016 Red Sox, but it’s a glaring weakness. If you told me Sandoval and Ramirez will be twice as good at fielding as last year, I still wouldn’t be sold on the combination. That’s not good news for a club that’s invested as much as it has this offseason into fielding a much-improved product from last season. Like last year, expect errors and head-scratchers abound.
Sorry to sour on your Monday, but there’s a reason to be concerned about the 2016 Red Sox. Will they be the worst infield in baseball? It’s possible. The hope for the Sox is it won’t prove too costly, and that a plus-plus defensive outfield can help make up for that deficiency.
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