We all watched what happened on Opening Day, and it was beautiful. Except for one short part of one inning where he lost his command just a smidge, David Price was overpowering. He held the Indians, who are supposed to be able to hit pretty well, to two runs over six innings while striking out 10. What’s more, he told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that he did it by cutting back on his velocity and throwing across his body a bit more to confuse the hitters. Dammit, Price, that’s fantastic. So it turns out, he’s very good.
Then we get to the second game of the year and before most of us had fallen ass-backwards into our comfy chairs and flicked on the TV, the Indians were up 4-0. They had achieved said score courtesy of Clay Buchholz. Now I’m not here to pile on Buchholz (okay, maybe just a little), but didn’t this feel at least a little bit predictable? Opening Day had been, in a word, perfect. New ace Price had been dominant, and he’d given way to the new improved pen of Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara, and then Craig Kimbrel. The Indians didn’t have a chance. It was gorgeous.
Buchholz’s mercurial nature makes him a less than ideal candidate for the spotlight but when he’s healthy, with his combination of stuff and command, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball.
But, of course, that also meant Price and most of the relievers wouldn’t be pitching the next day. Instead we got Buchholz, perhaps the game’s most inconsistent pitcher, followed by the bullpen’s B crew, Noe Ramirez, Robbie Ross and Matt Barnes. Notably, Tazawa came out for the second day in a row and that went predictably poorly. The offense held its own but in the end the pitching staff wasn’t quite able to do its job well enough and the team fell to Cleveland 7-6. I haven’t said it yet so here’s the point: as good as he is, the Red Sox are going to need more than just David Price to win this season. They’re going to need to be able to win games when the other four members of the rotation are on the mound as well. But right now, an admittedly small sample of two games into the season, that looks and sounds less likely.
Price, Kimbrel, Koji when he’s healthy … these guys are as sure as it gets on the mound, but after that things get dicey for Boston. Of course, no team is made up of 100 percenters. But the good teams can win when they don’t have their sure things on the mound. Just as it takes a village to raise a child, it takes an entire 40-man roster and often more to make it through a baseball season. So after watching Buchholz burn the Red Sox’s second game of the season to the ground in the first inning, I thought it would be instructive to look at what the Red Sox have in the way of options.
Price will obviously be there at the front of the rotation for as long as he’s able. So that’s it for him then. Buchholz’s mercurial nature makes him a less than ideal candidate for the spotlight but when he’s healthy, with his combination of stuff and command, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. Of course he’s healthy about 60 percent of the time. Already we’re likely to have to hand the ball to Steven Wright, Roenis Elias, or one of the other quad-A starters stashed away in Pawtucket a fair amount, and that’s not even talking about pitcher performance.
Then we get to Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello, who may as well just be human question marks. Kelly’s stuff notwithstanding, there are real reasons to not believe he can produce the kind of results the team needs from a starting pitcher. It would be one thing if Kelly were it, but with Porcello’s spring, not to mention the awful season he just put up, he might be a bigger source of worry for the team than Pablo Sandoval or Rusney Castillo. The team can afford the uncertainty with one or maybe even two starters, but we’re up to three now and we’ve only discussed four.
But this is where things potentially get better. Sort of. Eduardo Rodriguez is Boston’s third starter and he’s out with a knee injury. However he’s due back soon and while he isn’t the second coming of Sidd Finch he does have an excellent fastball and the ability to put hitters away with either his changeup or slider. What’s more, and in contrast to the rest of the rotation, he’s young. There is upside here. More specifically there is room to make up for whatever failings are exhibited by the other members of the rotation as the season progresses. If you’re looking for a reason the Red Sox rotation could exceed expectations, look towards Rodriguez as much as anyone.
Last season the Red Sox gave up 753 runs while scoring 748. PECOTA projects Boston to score 723 in 2016, a slight step backwards. That means the pitching staff is going to have to be a whole lot better in order to get the team the kind of record they’ll need to win the division and get into the playoffs. No team is capable of re-building an entire starting rotation on the fly. One or even two moves can be made from outside the organization, but much beyond that in-season is virtually impossible. There’s also Boston’s farm system to consider, and there are some fairly accomplished Triple-A arms in Henry Ownes and, later on in the season, Brian Johnson. They might be able to hold things down a bit, but mostly this team is going to sink or swim with the talent they have on hand presently. That may still prove to be enough, but after Buchholz’s start and the contrast it presented with Price’s, it’s not difficult to get a twinge of skepticism.
It’s still very early, but with so many questions to answer in the affirmative, the Red Sox are gambling their season on a few players with perhaps too many questions.