When you look back at the best Red Sox teams in recent memory — i.e. the ones that won championships — you will see, again and again, a roster that hit for plenty of power. In those three seasons, Boston ranked second out of all MLB teams in ISO twice (2004 and 2013) and seventh in the other season (2007).
Yet over the last few years, they’ve seen a big drop off in that power production. It’s true that the entire league has suffered from a similar drop, but Boston’s fall has been disproportional. Two years ago, they finished the season with the 23rd-highest ISO in the league. Gross. They weren’t quite as bad in 2015, but they still finished in the bottom half of the league with the 17th-best ISO. So, as they try to put together a bounce-back campaign in 2016, can the Red Sox expect an uptick in power to put them on par with their past World Series-winning lineups?
We’ll go through most of the lineup in this space, but there’s no better place to start than with David Ortiz. He’s been the one constant throughout the time period mentioned above, and he’s hardly shown any signs of slowing down. Despite approaching 40, he hit at least 30 dingers in each of the last three seasons, including a whopping 37 last year.
Now in his age-40 season, there is certainly some extra injury risk that didn’t exist earlier in his career. Nevertheless, as long as Ortiz is on the field, he should still provide the same power as ever. Although he carried the 13th-highest HR/FB% in the league last year, and some could look at that as luck, it was merely a percentage point higher than his career average. Combine that with his still-elite average fly-ball distance, and it’s clear Ortiz is still a home-run machine. He didn’t waste any time reminding us in 2016, mashing his first homer of the year on Opening Day in 30-degree weather and his second homer in game two.
However, beyond Ortiz, the Red Sox face plenty of questions about how much power the rest of their lineup can provide. There are a few players who will be key in determining whether Boston can approach new heights in the power department. One of them is Hanley Ramirez, who is the default wildcard for any post like this. To be fair, he wasn’t a power black hole last year, as his .177 ISO wasn’t too far out of whack from his performance in recent years. Still, those years came in Dodger Stadium and Marlins Park before that, and one would’ve been reasonable to expect an increase in power from Ramirez upon moving to Fenway Park.
The deficiency, relative to expectations, occurred for two main reasons. The first was the shoulder injury Hanley suffered at the start of May. Prior to that, he was battling with Nelson Cruz for the league’s early home-run lead. However, after that he stopped pulling the ball, which greatly hampered his production given his .352 ISO on balls he hits to left field over his career.
Ramirez also saw a huge decrease in average fly-ball distance in 2015, finishing the year among such notable sluggers as James McCann and Rene Rivera.
Ramirez also saw a huge decrease in average fly-ball distance in 2015, finishing the year among such notable sluggers as James McCann and Rene Rivera. There was also the issue of confidence, or lack thereof, stemming from his atrocious defensive performance. It’s hard to quantify what kind of effect that had, but it’s easy to say it didn’t help one bit. With a healthy shoulder and a (possibly) better chance to succeed in the field, an ISO pushing .200 isn’t at all out of the question for Ramirez this year.
Yet Ramirez isn’t the biggest wildcard in the power department. That title belongs to Xander Bogaerts. Based purely on prospect pedigree, he should be a major contributor to the team’s overall ISO. He was never going to be Ortiz, but the expectation was that Bogaerts would be a power-hitting shortstop in the mold of Ramirez. If he’s ever going to reach those heights, though, he’ll need to completely overhaul the offensive approach he’s shown at the major-league level. Specifically, he needs to hit the ball in the air every once in awhile. My gut says that he’ll start hitting for the type of power many expected from him, even if he doesn’t fully realize that potential in 2016. That’s based entirely on scouting reports and makeup, though. Statistically speaking, Bogaerts hasn’t shown much of a power track record.
Of course, even if Bogaerts does have his power breakout and Ramirez does crush the ball with a healthy shoulder and new position, there will be regression elsewhere in the lineup. It starts with Travis Shaw, who didn’t play all year in 2015 but crushed the ball when he did. He finished the year with a .217 ISO after never showing anything near that ability in his minor-league career. On top of that, his high HR/FB ratio wasn’t backed up at all by a middle-of-the-pack average fly-ball distance, suggesting some regression is on the way.
On the other hand, Shaw’s power may not regress as much as some think. He has stated that a big reason for his success in Boston is the superior advanced scouting tools available at the major-league level. He won’t continue as a .200+ ISO hitter, but Shaw could certainly settle in the .175 range rather than .150.
Jackie Bradley is the other regression candidate in this lineup. There’s really no sane way to explain what the Red Sox outfielder did in 2015. He was horrible for long periods of the season, but then he put together an absurd six-week stretch in which he hit like Barry Bonds. That hot stretch helped him finish the year with a .250 ISO. It should go without saying that figure will come down, and based on his track record, it could come down by a good 100 points. Still, he didn’t hit cheap home runs during his hot streak, and the power is clearly in there, so like Shaw I could see Bradley retaining more power than his track record suggests.
Beyond those mentioned above, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and Blake Swihart should be expected to stay around the same level they were at in 2015. Betts should push a .200 ISO again, but not quite get there with a swing built more for doubles than homers. Pedroia proved that his power deficiency in the past was based on injury, not skill. Swihart hits a ton of line drives, but that leads to more singles than extra-base hits.
So, after all this, I’m still unsure if the Red Sox will be able to improve their power numbers from the past couple seasons. On the one hand, Ortiz is still around, Ramirez should hit for more power and the black hole at third base should be gone. On the other hand, most of that will be cancelled out by some expected regression from Shaw and Bradley.
In the end, it all comes down to Bogaerts. If he meets his power potential, the Red Sox could get back within the top-third in the league in ISO and power production. If he continues his line-drive approach from last year, they’ll have to contend with a lineup that’s unlike their other World Series-winning clubs.
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