Through the first seven games of the season the Red Sox offense averaged almost six runs a game. But the offense had scuttled over the next six games, averaging just over three runs per game. In last night’s game, the offense got three runs before making an out against Chris Archer, one of the best starting pitchers in the game. They tacked on four more runs to complement Rick Porcello’s solid outing and broke their three-game losing skid.
Top Play (WPA): The Red Sox jumped on Chris Archer last night. Mookie Betts led off with a walk, then Dustin Pedroia singled to center field, Xander Bogaerts kept things rolling with a single to left field that brought Mookie home, and David Ortiz smacked a double to left-center field scoring Pedroia and Bogaerts (WPA: + .116). The Red Sox were officially off to a great start, establishing an early lead they would not relinquish.
Bottom Play (WPA): The bottom of the first inning was filled with excitement, but also some letdowns. After the first four guys reached base, Hanley Ramirez struck out (WPA: – .024), then Travis Shaw struck out with David Ortiz on third base (WPA: – .033), and finally Brock Holt grounded out to end the inning (WPA: – .022). While Shaw’s plate appearance was the bottom play of the night, these three trips to the plate really took the wind out of the Red Sox’s sails in that first inning. Fortunately there were eight more innings to play.
Key Moment: In the bottom of the second inning the Red Sox’s offense kept pressure on Rays’ starter Chris Archer. After Christian Vazquez struck out, Jackie Bradley Jr. doubled high off the center field wall bringing Rays-killer Mookie Betts to the plate. Mookie then sent a rocket over the Green Monster:
The homer was the third best play of the night by WPA (+ .082) and pushed the Red Sox’s lead to 5-0 in the early stages of the game. You might even argue that with the Rays only scoring three runs on the night, it was the game winner. Mookie had a big night, getting on-base in four out of five trips to the plate. With his efforts he pushed his line against the Rays to .360/.421/.590 (in 114 PA), including six home runs. It appears as though Mookie really likes hitting against Tampa Bay.
Trend to Watch: Rick Porcello’s strikeout rate. Coming into the game, Porcello had a 30.0 K%, tied for 14th highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this year. Then he went out and struck out nine of the 28 Rays’ batters he faced, raising his season mark ever so slightly to 30.7 percent. His career rate is 15.3 percent, so this is a remarkable change for him in the early going of this season. When Porcello was struggling last year there were suggestions (e.g., here) that he needed to stop trying to strike batters out with his four-seamer up in the zone and get back to what had made him successful in the past: getting ground balls on sinkers low in the zone. Well the good news is that this season, he has thrown sinker more often than he ever has since his rookie season in 2009. Outside of getting tagged for five home runs – a problem he had last year – this fastball-heavy approach has worked pretty well.
One more note — Xander Bogaerts had to leave the game in the sixth after semi-limping home on a David Ortiz RBI double. There were plenty of scares at first, but the Red Sox quickly announced that Xander is simply dealing with a tight quad and is day-to-day. Whew.
Coming next: The Red Sox will finish up the home stand and series with the Rays in an afternoon tilt at Fenway before heading to Houston for a weekend set against the Astros. David Price will take the mound looking to help the team to a series win. Price was excellent in his last outing, holding down the prolific Blue Jays offense over seven innings (6 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 9 SO). He should be able to shine against the meager Rays’ offense. The Rays will counter with young, right-hander Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi is off to a solid start this season, having allowed only six runs total in his three starts (2.89 RA9, 2.10 FIP). He presents another tough matchup for a Sox offense that will be looking to continue their outburst from last night.
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