He’s not on the DL because he can be an asshole. He’s not on the DL because the Boston media is tough. He’s not on the DL because of what you tweeted at him or yelled at him from the bleachers. He’s on the DL because his elbow isn’t functioning properly. If you honestly think otherwise, maybe someday we can get a beer and you can tell me all about how you were rooting for O’Doyle the first time you watched Billy Madison.

But let’s pretend for a second that this isn’t the case. Let’s pretend David Price is on the DL because Felger and Mazz and Jonny from Southie and Cousin Sal and every swaggering 19-year-old dude in your eighth grade class who wore a wife-beater and earrings says he’s a p*ssy. Let’s say Price is on the DL because you broke him.

Why the hell are you proud of that?

Why do you want your city to be a place that professional athletes have to think twice about coming to? To be a part of a place notorious for having asshole fans and asshole media? What part of this reputation that you’ve given Red Sox fans and Boston makes you happy?

You don’t hate David Price because you think he’s faking an injury. You don’t truly believe that, with a half-game lead in a very tight AL East race, the Red Sox are going to sit their second-best starter and highest-paid player so he doesn’t get booed at home. You don’t really think the guy who started the season six weeks late is faking having the exact same injury eight weeks later. You don’t think a guy who probably wants to pitch well so he can opt out of his contract and get out of this hellscape of an environment is gonna fake a boo-boo right now. You don’t think Red Sox ownership is going to risk missing out on all the extra revenue that comes from making the playoffs to spare David Price’s feelings. If you do, maybe you’re not mean. Maybe you’re just stupid.  

You don’t hate David Price because he’s overpaid, either. And if you do, well, read up (if you can) about how free agency works. Pretty much every veteran is overpaid, because baseball artificially restricts young players’ salaries. Would you rather that money sit in John Henry’s multi-billion-dollar pockets, anyway? The beer and hot dog prices in Fenway aren’t going down if the Red Sox don’t sign David Price. You’re not getting that money one way or another, so why would you rather it go to the old billionaire (who you probably complain doesn’t spend enough) than the athlete who’s actually putting on the show?

You don’t even hate David Price because of his performance, because you know he’s tried. He’s not Pablo Sandoval gaining weight and giving up, or Manny leaving the bat on his shoulders, or John Lackey asking for a trade. Price is in shape. He led the league in IP last year; that’s probably part of the reason he’s hurt. He’s produced, even if not up to the level you were hoping. Price has many faults, but lack of effort/caring has never been one of them.

Maybe you hate David Price because he says stupid shit and seems like a bad sport, and if that’s the case, congrats, you’ve picked the right reason to hate David Price, and this rant isn’t aimed at you. He was a sore loser when he was with the Rays and David Ortiz was taking him deep. His comments to Dennis Eckersley are laughable, whether he thinks he’s being a clubhouse hero or not. The whole Evan Drellich thing was bizarre. David Price isn’t perfect, and David Price deserves some of the blame.

But let’s be honest, that’s not what this is about. You don’t hate David Price because of Eck or Drellich or his 4.00 ERA. David Price could’ve won the Cy Young and donated $50 million to the Jimmy Fund and been a model citizen. It wouldn’t be enough for you, because you don’t really care about the team or the city.

This is about you wanting David Price to be on the DL because you’ve made his life so miserable that he can’t show his face in Boston. It’s about you being happy you got to show how big and tough you are on Twitter or in the comments section or when you call into Crazy Ira and the Douche by slamming yet another athlete who chose Boston. And if that is what you want, you are exactly the reason this city has such a shit reputation when it comes to sports to begin with, and I hate you.

We get it: you’re not happy. Stop trying to make the rest of us unhappy, too.

Photo by Kirby Lee/USA Today Sports Images

PECOTA Red Sox Projections
Record: 87-75
Runs Scored: 749
Runs Allowed: 690
AVG/OBP/SLG (TAv): .272/.335/.431 (.263)
Total WARP: 35.4 (16.0 pitching, 19.4 non-pitching)

The 2016 Red Sox had about as successful a season as any non-World Series team could hope for. Mookie Betts emerged as an MVP-level talent. Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, and (sort of) Eduardo Rodriguez cemented themselves as legitimate roster cornerstones. Andrew Benintendi blossomed into one of the game’s best prospects. Steven Wright was an All-Star. Rick Porcello and Hanley Ramirez rebounded beyond anyone’s wildest expectations. Dustin Pedroia stayed healthy. And David Ortiz enjoyed the most successful walk-off season we’ve seen in quite some time.

Sure, we could nitpick by recalling Blake Swihart’s ankle, Carson Smith’s elbow, David Price’s ERA, or Pablo Sandoval’s stomach. But by and large, the Red Sox’s future looked quite bright despite their loss to Cleveland in the ALDS. Dave Dombrowski and company just needed to replace some of Ortiz’s offensive production and add some rotation depth as the likes of Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Michael Kopech, and Benintendi got some polish in the upper minors.

But that’s not what happened, of course. Instead, the Red Sox gutted much of their farm system to add Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg, because this is Dave Dombrowski we’re talking about. And so the 2017 Red Sox will be remembered largely as the team that embodies a shift in identity from one David to another, because make no mistake about it, this is now very much a Dave Dombrowski team and a Dave Dombrowski organization.

Read the rest for free at Baseball Prospectus.

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You know the reasons, of course. Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Manny Margot, Anderson Espinoza, Luis Alexander Basabe, Mauricio Dubon and others have all been traded in the past 12-or-so months. Factor in disappointing seasons from first-rounders like Deven Marrero, Michael Chavis and Trey Ball, and you get a precipitous drop for a farm system that ranked in at No.5 just a season ago.

“The culprits here are obvious. The Red Sox, Nats, and Indians all traded major pieces from their system in the last twelve months,” Jeffery Paternostro wrote in the 2017 edition. However, he noted, “Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Jason Groome, Victor Robles, Juan Soto, Francisco Mejia, and Triston McKenzie can paper over a lot of depth issues.”

Read the rest of BP’s latest ranking here, and read the Red Sox’s top-10 list (pre-Chris Sale trade) here.

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What follows is a very, very serious breakdown of their abilities and is in no way an attempt to quickly produce content late on a Sunday evening. As such:

2017 RED SOX NON-ROSTER SPRING TRAINING INVITEES, RANKED:

17) Jake DePew, C
I don’t know who Jake DePew is.

16) Jordan Procyshen, C
I don’t know who Jordan Procyshen is.

15) Marcus Walden, RHP
I don’t know who Marcus Walden is.

14) Kyle Kendrick, RHP
I am all too familiar with who Kyle Kendrick is, and so are you. His career ERA is 4.61. He strikes out so few people it’s a wonder Terry Ryan didn’t sign him to a lifetime contract. He’s been a whipping boy the past four seasons, and when he wasn’t a whipping boy, he was an uninspiring no. 5 starter. He might be better than Henry Owens.

13) Dan Butler, C
Dan Butler hit. 308/.399/.452 serving as a backup in Triple-A last season. He’s 30 and he’s bad, but could he be 2017’s Sandy Leon? You decide, friends. You decide.

12) Austin Maddox, RHP
Austin Maddox was a third-round pick out of Florida in 2012. I wanted to say he could be the next Noe Ramirez, but Noe Ramirez had more promising MiLB numbers.

11) Allen Craig, 1B
Joe Kelly’s Great Stuff™ aside, it’s beginning to look like that John Lackey trade might not work out. Craig played in just 29 games last season thanks to knee inflammation. The last time he logged substantial playing time (2015), he hit .274/.368/.350 in Triple-A. Yes, really .350, from a dude a who once slugged .555 in the majors. Sadface.

10) Brian Bogusevic, OF
Bogusevic was a first-round pick, you know. He’s only hit .238/.311/.373 in his career, but he has managed to appear in 321 games, and he has notched 834 PA. And he’s been not totally terrible against RHP in his career, hitting .254/.330/.403. You might call that a disappointment, but it beats the hell out of anything Jason Place, Trey Ball, Michael Chavis or Deven Marrero has done/is going to do. Don’t be mean to Brian Bogusevic, is what I’m saying.

9) Ben Taylor, RHP
The Red Sox converted Taylor to relief in 2016, and the initial results were promising. Taylor carved up High-A hitters to the tune of a 2.60 ERA and a 31.3 K%. He doesn’t really have an out-pitch, though, and seeing as he’s already 24, he needs to show what he’s got in the upper minors to be of any real interest.

8) Jamie Callahan, RHP
Callahan was a second-round pick in 2012. He struck out 22 percent of the batters he faced in High-A last season, which is good. He also walked 13.2 percent of the batters he faced, which is very, extremely bad. Here’s to hoping his second full season in relief goes better than his first. Also, tunnel reference/joke.

7) Junior Lake, OF
You remember Lake, no? Before the Cubs were The Cubs, Lake was one of their more promising prospects, but he was always viewed as high-risk, high-reward. In 2013 it looked like Lake might’ve figured it out, but his MLB success was short-lived. He signed on as a minor league free agent with the Blue Jays last season, and will now fill that role in Boston. It’s his age-27 season and there’s always a chance it will click late with guys, so it makes sense to roll the dice on someone with Lake’s talent. Don’t hold your breath, though.

6) Chandler Shepherd, RHP
Shepherd was dominant as a reliever in Pawtucket last season, but is already 24 and lacks much of anything other than a good slider. He’s got ROOGY potential, but the Red Sox are loaded with ROOGYs.

5) Edgar Olmos, LHP
Over the past two seasons, Olmos has been: DFAd by the Mariners; claimed by the Rangers; returned to the Mariners; DFAd by the Mariners; claimed by the Cubs; claimed by the Orioles; reclaimed by the Cubs; traded to the Orioles and then signed by the Red Sox. Teach your sons to throw left-handed.

4) Rusney Castillo, OF
Don’t you just hate it when you sign on to a new job and then they develop an MVP candidate, a role-6 center fielder and a potential ROY all to do the same thing you do? Just brutal. There’s a non-zero chance Castillo can sniff the majors this season, because aside from Mookie Betts and Chris Young, there’s not a lot of right-handed action occurring in Boston’s outfield. Castillo will need to hit better than .263/.309/.354 in Pawtucket to get another chance in Fenway, though. Also, he’s 29.

3) Matt Dominguez, 3B
We don’t always give scouts the credit they deserve for being right. When Dominguez was drafted, the rap on him was that he’d be a plus defender at the hot corner and that he’d have some pop, but the it tool was a big question mark. Check and check. Dominguez is good with the glove and has big right-handed power, but he didn’t hit well enough to earn an everyday job somewhere. He could, theoretically, earn himself a platoon role with Pablo Sandoval, as Evan Drellich writes here. Could Dominguez essentially take Travis Shaw’s spot on the 2017 roster? These are the  questions that keep us all up at night.

2) Sam Travis, 1B
At some point this season Sam Travis is going to be labeled as a potential savior, and it’s going to suck. Travis is a doubles-hitting first baseman who has a real nose for the ball but who lacks elite power or an elite glove. Can he be a part of a first-division team? Yes. Should he be an everyday starter? No. Is he going to solve any offensive problems the Red Sox have halfway through the season? Not at all. The thinning out of the farm system is gonna make Travis seem better than he is — there’s an argument he’s the third-best dude in the system after Rafael Devers and Jason Groome, once Andrew Benintendi graduates. I feel bad for him.

1) Rafael Devers, 3B
Devers, however, is not overrated. He recently ranked as the no. 13 overall prospect in BP’s top-101, as he could be a potential 6-power, 6-hit third baseman. That presumes quite a few things, of course — the power comes, the hit tool plays up, he stays at the hot corner — but he’s got legit, All-Star-level upside. He shouldn’t contribute much in 2017, but it’s not crazy to think he’ll be a factor in 2018. He’s the most interesting non-roster invitiee heading into the season, and odds are he will be next season, too.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Getting your teeth cleaned. Scheduling an oil change. Filing taxes. Shopping for Valentine’s Day gifts. We all have things we put off until we absolutely have to do them. It’s part of what makes us human. But sooner or later, we realize that yes, our teeth really do need attention, our engine really is overheating, the IRS is real and our significant others will be mad even if they say they don’t want gifts (an especially painful lesson).

For years and years the Red Sox put off moving Joe Kelly to the bullpen. They knew they’d need to get around to it sooner or later, but by gosh work just kept popping up and they had prospects to trade and divisions to win, ya know? But 2016 was finally the season. And folks, let me tell you, when Joe Kelly is a reliever, my god does Joe Kelly Have Great Stuff™.

What Went Right in 2016

Joe Kelly in the bullpen went right. After six bad starts to begin the season, Kelly was banished to the minors in early June. He’d remain there for six weeks, emerging as a bullpen option on July 25. In his first outing as a reliever, Kelly allowed a run and coughed up two hits, but foreshadowing doesn’t always pay off. That was one of just two runs Kelly allowed in his 17.2 innings as a fireman, and John Farrell began trusting Kelly with higher-leverage situations as the season progressed.

In the end, Kelly posted a 1.02 ERA and held batters to a .203/.261/.297 line as a reliever. He struck out more than 30 percent of the batters he faced, his walk and homer rates plummeted and his fastball routinely touched the upper 90s. The stuff was great. The results were great. He looked great.

What Went Wrong in 2016

Joe Kelly in the rotation continued to go wrong. Those six starts we mentioned? Kelly allowed 21 earned runs in 22.1 innings. He walked 16 percent of batters faced. He gave up four homers. It was, to use a scouting term, woof city.

You can sort of understand why the Red Sox gave Kelly one more shot in the rotation. It’s easy to forget now, but he ended 2015 on a dominant eight-game stretch. Eduardo Rodriguez was on the DL. Clay Buchholz was Clay Buchholz. It’s not as though Boston was overflowing with talented starting options. Still, we knew this was probably coming. Scouts have thrown the reliever label on Kelly dating back to his days as a prospect. Sox fans have been screaming for this move since early 2015. It was past due. 

Outlook for 2017

The ninth inning belongs to Craig Kimbrel and the eighth to Tyler Thornburg, but the seventh inning could very well become the property of Kelly. You can’t expect him to be as dominant in the bullpen for a full season as he was for 17.2 innings last season, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see him develop into a talent worthy of serving as a primary set-up guy on a first-division roster. We’ll see if Kelly can hold up for a full season as a reliever, and we’ll see if his walk issues are truly behind him. If so, he’ll be a key piece in a suddenly deep Red Sox bullpen. If not, we’ll basically have two Matt Barneses (Barnesai?). That’s not exciting, but it could be worse.

I can’t help myself. pic.twitter.com/lRJtEpYoLx

— Ben Carsley (@BenCarsley) August 13, 2015

You know what we won’t have? We won’t have any more of Joe Kelly in the rotation. No more 24-pitch innings with three walks. No more 94 mph meatballs down the middle. No more Cy Young jokes.

Just Joe Kelly. Just Joe Kelly and his Great Stuff™.

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Would you rather have Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Be … ehh, ok, I guess we can’t play that game anymore. After Betts decided to go all Mike Trout on the league and Bogaerts started his offseason in August, the question that was all the rage a season ago is no longer relevant. Yes, Mookie > Xander, but just saying that really sells Xander short, don’t you think?

I think. I really do.

What Went Right in 2016

April through July. In those months, Bogaerts hit .329/.385/.486 with 14 homers and 13 steals. That’s down-ballot MVP stuff from a shortstop, and it’s what made Bogaerts an All-Star for the first time in his career. Bogaerts struck out just 71 times in 468 PA, hit the ball hard and often and settled comfortably into a spot in the top third of the potent Red Sox offense. That’s basically his 90th percent projection from his prospect days. He was incredible. 

He also showed an insane ability to pull pitches way, way inside as he grew into the power scouts have long expected him to show case. Seriously, look where he hit this pitch:

That wasn’t the only time he crushed a pitch that nearly hit him, either. You can still get Bogaerts to chase breaking balls away, but you can’t sneak something by him inside. Like counting stats? Bogaerts reached career highs in homers, runs, RBIs, steals and walks en route to his second Silver Slugger. Not bad for a 23-year-old. 

What Went Wrong in 2016

August and September. After playing like a true superstar for the season’s first four months, Bogaerts bottomed out as the season neared its end. He hit just .230/.303/.372 with seven homers and no steals in 251 PA. He struck out at a much higher rate, hit more balls on the ground and looked occasionally befuddled by breaking stuff from right-handers. 

Defensively, Bogaerts received mixed reviews. FRAA sort of hated him, putting him at -11.4. UZR thinks he was closer to average, giving him -2.9. DRS said he allowed 10 more runs than the average shortstop. BCET (Ben Carsley Eye Test) had Xander as a league average shortstop who’s a bit stretched going to his left but who can make all the routine plays and the occasional spectacular one. It also says Bogaerts is very handsome.

Basically, Bogaerts will never be a Gold Glove candidate, but he doesn’t need to move off the position. When you hit like he does, that’s pretty, pretty good.

What to Expect in 2017

Unfortunately, we’ve seen long slumps from Bogaerts before; as good as he is when he’s on, he has trouble righting the ship. That ability (or lack thereof) to make adjustments more quickly will likely define whether Bogaerts is a true franchise cornerstone or just a really good player moving forward. It’s pretty nice when your “floor” is a role-6 guy, though.

For all intents and purposes, Bogaerts has become a better hitter each year he’s been in the Majors. Yes, his average dipped from 2015 to 2016, but he reached base more and hit for more power, and his .372 BABIP from 2015 probably set his average expectations too high. Entering his age-24 season, Bogaerts is poised to improve modestly once again, especially if he learns to make adjustments with more alacrity than he’s shown in the past.

Let’s call Bogaerts’ 2017 triple-slash something like .310/.360/.460, and let’s give him 23 homers and 16 steals. Assuming his defense stays about or slightly below league average at short, that’d make him a borderline MVP candidate, and someone who can challenge Mookie Betts for that coveted “Best Player On The Team” label. While he’ll start the season batting in the lower-middle of the order, the guess is he’ll be back batting second or fourth by May or June, using his contact-oriented approach and budding power to help make up for some of the loss of David Ortiz.

As beautiful as he is, it can be frustrating to watch Bogaerts sometimes because you’re always left with the feeling that he could be something more. But let’s be thankful for what we have here; a prospect who panned out, a consistently great player, The Prince Who Was Promised and a man who finally put an end to the carousel that was shortstop in Fenway. He might not be as good as Mookie, but if Bogaerts is your second-best player, your roster is in awfully good shape.

Photo by Mike Dinovo/USA Today Sports Images

Acquired LHP Chris Sale from Chicago White Sox in exchange for INF-B Yoan Moncada, RHP Michael Kopech, OF-B Luis Alexander Basabe, and RHP Victor Diaz. [12/6]

One imagines Dave Dombrowski climbing down to the field level at Fenway Park, lifting his arms in the air and screaming “ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED” to the heavens.

Last offseason, Dombrowski didn’t make any franchise-altering moves, and that came as a bit of a surprise. Sure, he traded away Manny Margot and decent secondary prospects for Craig Kimbrel, but Boston’s system was so deep and their need at reliever so great that most people (myself included) forgave that perceived overpay. Dealing Anderson Espinoza to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz at midseason was big too, but not like this. Nothing like this.

In acquiring Chris Sale for three of their remaining top prospects–including one truly elite talent in Moncada–the Red Sox have fundamentally changed their outlook now and well into the future. And while they’ve gutted their farm system in the process–Dombrowski doesn’t care about your prospects, fam–they haven’t meaningfully impacted the young nucleus that led them to the playoffs last season.

Read the rest for free at Baseball Prospectus

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The State of the System: I could just C&P the Nats lines here. Incredible top five, falls off quickly after that, and past the top ten, even fewer intriguing names than the Nats.

The Top Ten

1. OF Andrew Benintendi
2. IF Yoan Moncada
3. 3B Rafael Devers
4. LHP Jason Groome
5. RHP Michael Kopech
6. OF Luis Alexander Basabe
7. SS Mauricio Dubon
8. 1B Sam Travis
9. LHP Brian Johnson
10. 1B Josh Ockimey

The Big Question: Why don’t we give out 80 hit tools?

Andrew Benintendi is about as sure a bet to hit for a good batting average as a prospect can be. He was a top-ten overall draft pick as a small, late-blooming, moderately bat-first player. The bat has to be really good for that to happen. His minor-league performance record is absolutely flawless, outside of a rough first couple weeks in Double-A that got drowned out in the season line quickly when he started crushing the ball. He is essentially already established as a major-league regular, only eligible for this list because a minor injury kept him just a touch under the rookie-eligibility requirements. He hit .295 for a month-and-a-half in the majors in a pennant race. He’s got one of those picture-perfect beautiful lefty swings. He makes a short, aggressive move on the ball. His wrists are great, his bat speed is excellent, and he has a really good idea of what he wants to do. The ball jumps off his bat in a way it does for the truly special ones. There’s basically nothing to nitpick here. This is the total hit package.

Read the rest ($) at Baseball Prospectus

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Over the past two weeks, most BP Boston authors have published 2017 Offseason Oracle columns in which we’ve gone in depth over what we think will happen (not what we think should happen) this offseason. Go read them. For a quick overview of what we think is in Boston’s future, refer to this handy chart:

Look forward to our “where we went wrong” post in March!

Photo by Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports Images

So far in our series we’ve seen incredibly exciting offseason possibilitis (trade for Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt or Chris Sale) and the extraordinarily mundane (sign Carlos Beltran and Brett Cecil, call it a day). I present to you an option somewhere in between:

How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz’s production?

I thought about this one a lot. It’s true that the Red Sox should still have a very good offense in 2017, but I think people are selling short just how dramatic the loss of Ortiz will be. He was one of the best hitters in the game last season, brought a much-needed lefty bat to a very right-handed lineup and was one of only three sources of big-time power for the Sox. Dombrowski can’t just say “the young guys will get better” and leave it at that. And I don’t think he will.

Edwin Encarnacion makes some sense, but he’s right-handed, will cost a draft pick and will probably require a lengthy contract. Jose Bautista fits, but there were some pretty troubling signs in terms of his production last year. I liked Jake Devereaux’s idea of trading for Joey Votto, but that means adding another huge contract and would also require trading substantial prospects. I mulled over a trade for Carlos Gonzalez, but the Rockies might sneaky flirt with a Wild Card spot next season. I thought about Ryan Braun, but he’s also right-handed and will cost a lot to acquire.

So I think the Red Sox fix this one of two ways. First, they sign Carlos Beltran to a two-year contract. He’s a switch-hitter, he won’t cost a draft pick and he won’t need a long commitment. The downside is he’s no longer an elite bat, but he’s good enough to add more depth and balance to the lineup, and he can DH 90% of the time in Boston.

Second, I think the Red Sox make a trade for the White Sox, but not for who you think. I think they trade for Todd Frazier.

Yes, he’s right-handed, and yes, his average sank big-time last year. But we know the White Sox are in sell mode, the Red Sox have no idea what to expect at third base and Frazier is still good and young enough that he can be considered an impact bat — he did hit 40 homers last year, albeit with a bad OBP. He’ll cost a pretty penny, but nowhere near what Votto, Braun or CarGo would require. He also won’t block Yoan Moncada long-term, as he’s a free agent after the 2017 season; one the Sox can re-sign if things go wrong with Moncada, or one the Sox can attach a Qualifying Offer to if they’re ready to let him walk.

Who goes back to Chicago? Blake Swihart, for starters. It’s not what I would do, but it’s clear to me from the beat writers that Dombrowski does not have faith in Swihart’s ability to catch. I disagree, but this is what I think will happen, not my plan. Joining him will be Mauricio Dubon (sorry, Matt), Williams Jerez and Henry Owens. Also coming back to the Red Sox will be Nate Jones, who we’ll get to in a minute.

How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?

It’s tough to see the Red Sox going all-in on Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen after giving up so much for Craig Kimbrel a year ago. I also don’t see a Mark Melancon reunion in the cards, though I’d be fine with it. Instead, the Sox will make the relatively minor move of re-signing Brad Ziegler to a two-year deal to be their seventh-inning guy.

The real big improvement will come in the form of Jones, who’s under an affordable contract through 2020 with a good team option for 2021. Jones has a troubling injury history and is older than you’d like, but he’s also coming off of his best season and has high-leverage abilities. He’s not perfect, but if he’s on the mound he’d be a big improvement over anything the Sox ran out in the eighth inning last year.

“No left-handed reliever,” you ask? I’d go get one, but I think Dombrowski tries Fernando Abad out again. I doubt he makes it past May, and I can’t wait to hear Red Sox Twitter complain about the lack of LOOGY for two full months, until Dave overpays for one at the deadline. Wee!

Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?

Not in a major way, no. The Sox already have six reasonable options, plus a palatable Triple-A arm in Brian Johnson. I think they add some depth that can compete in Spring Training and then go to Pawtucket — let’s say Henderson Alvarez — but your rotation for next year will be David Price, Rick Porcello, Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Clay Buchholz, with Steven Wright heading back to the bullpen until Pomeranz or Buchholz inevitably gets hurt.

Chris Sale and Jose Quintana are tempting, but they’ll just cost too damn much. The A’s have no reason to sell low on Sonny Gray, the Indians no reason to sell one of their good young pitchers, etc. And the FA market … god is it bad. Dombrowski saw this coming, and that’s part of why they gave away Anderson Espinoza for Pomeranz last summer.

Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?

Given the current composition of Boston’s farm system, this really means “will they trade Moncada, Rafael Devers, Michael Kopech or Jason Groome?” I’m pretty confident the answer is no for Moncada — he’s too good and too close. Devers is the best bet to be moved, but in the situation I’ve imagined he doesn’t have to be. With the pitching prospects, who knows. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dombrowski thinks they’re untouchable or if he trades one of them for Tyler Thornburg. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s tempting to sell high on Kopech right now, but on the other hand some of the reports we’re seeing are ungodly.

Miscellaneous Thoughts:

What about Travis Shaw? It’s back to Triple-A for them, which means the Red Sox will actually have a little depth. That’s a good thing!  Who will the third catcher be with Swihart gone? Let’s see if Chris Iannetta accepts a minor-league deal.

Heath Hembree? He’s the odd man out in this scenario. As a commenter pointed out below, he’s out of options, so he might be shopped for a C-level prospect. Alternately, the Sox could keep him and not re-sign Ziegler.

What does Pablo Sandoval do with Frazier aboard? Nothing, until he proves he can hit. If he does, he can work himself into a 3B/1B/DH rotation with Ramirez, Beltran and Frazier, especially against RHP. But counting on Sandoval for production is a fool’s errand. Anything he gives this team is a bonus.

Biggest Acquisition: Todd Frazier
Biggest Loss: Blake Swihart
Biggest Surprise: A White Sox trade, but no Sale/Quintana

Projected 2017 Opening Day Roster:

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