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	<title>Boston &#187; Daniel Poarch</title>
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		<title>This Isn&#8217;t Even Their Final Form</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/19/this-isnt-even-their-final-form/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/04/19/this-isnt-even-their-final-form/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Apr 2018 13:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Benintendi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carson Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.D. Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Devers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=37974</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you think they're good now, just wait until they get the band back together.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The best start in Red Sox history continued this week against the Angels. Their latest high-profile victim: Angels&#8217; young phenom Shohei Ohtani, who lasted only two innings before a blister forced him out of the game.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to talk about how good the Red Sox are right now. They&#8217;re really, really good &#8212; two games better than the Mets, even! Still, as weird as it might be to say, some spotty performances and injury mishaps could say that the Sox haven&#8217;t even hit their actual ceiling just yet. As ridiculous as the Red Sox have been to open this season, what we&#8217;ve seen may not even be their best selves.</p>
<p>The bullpen is the most obvious complaint in the early going. The season kicked off with an unfortunate late-inning implosion, after all. Boston&#8217;s league-leading pitching numbers look even more impressive when you consider that they currently roster <em>seven</em> arms with ERAs higher than 4.00 when pitching out of the &#8216;pen &#8212; Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Brian Johnson, Marcus Walden, Hector Velazquez, and Carson Smith. Craig Kimbrel is an eldritch bullpen horror and Bobby Poyner looks like a nice middle-inning/lefty specialist find, but the team&#8217;s potential answers in high-leverage, late-inning scenarios seem limited. A lot of these guys are underperforming their peripherals, and Smith in particular should improve as he settles in as a healthy contributor for the first time since 2015. Still, this is an area I could really see the Red Sox addressing at the trade deadline, as they could benefit greatly from one or two more reliable arms.</p>
<p>Offensively, the Red Sox have looked simultaneously impressive and inconsistent. Runs were a little hard to come by in the early going, as they put up four or fewer in six of the first seven games (two of which went into extras), but they&#8217;ve been flowing fairly regularly ever since. Mookie Betts has been ridiculous, as have Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez. Last year&#8217;s power drought feels like ancient history.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rnjHah9np4I" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>And yet, there&#8217;s room for a little more there, too. J.D. Martinez is heating up, but he&#8217;s still far from his lofty 2017 level and even a ways off from the slightly more modest seasons before that. He&#8217;s striking out a little more than usual, and walking a little less. Andrew Benintendi is walking quite a bit and his contact rate is up, but that contact has been weaker &#8212; only 17.8 percent of his batted balls are classified as hard-hit on Fangraphs, way down from his 34.3 percent mark last season. Rafael Devers is enduring some growing pains, slugging almost 100 points worse than his 58-game taste of the majors last season.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a safe bet these trends will fix themselves before long, because all three of these hitters are just more talented than we&#8217;ve seen from them so far. Martinez probably isn&#8217;t going to slug nearly .700 again, but he&#8217;s a more disciplined hitter than we&#8217;ve seen to this point. He&#8217;s also absolutely crushing the ball &#8212; a whopping 64 percent of his batted balls are hit hard, across from only seven percent soft contact. Benintendi and Devers are young, but considering what we know about them as prospects, better days should be on the horizon. Even the &#8220;bad&#8221; version of Benintendi we&#8217;ve seen so far has an OBP over .400 and a walk rate near 19 percent in the two-hole of the lineup right now.</p>
<p>Another dimension at play here is that the Boston Sports Injury Plague of 2018 seems to be nipping at the Red Sox heels. Xander Bogaerts hit the 15-day DL almost immediately, cracking a bone in his foot on an awkward slide into the Tampa Bay Rays&#8217; dugout. While the Red Sox seemed to have lucked out in losing him for only about two weeks, the injury drudged up unfortunate memories of seeing about half the Boston Celtics&#8217; roster end their seasons just a few days apart.</p>
<p>Bogaerts will be back soon, but he&#8217;s not the only player missing time, either: Eduardo Rodriguez only just returned, Drew Pomeranz is on the way, and Tyler Thornburg is&#8230; somewhere. Dustin Pedroia&#8217;s new bionic leg is still a work in progress, but he could be ready to go sometime early in May. Between Rodriguez, Pomeranz, and Pedroia, that&#8217;s about seven wins (per fWAR) from last year&#8217;s team currently sitting on the DL. No team makes it through the year without injuries, and the Red Sox will certainly see other guys miss games, but getting that group back will help.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1912928583" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>There&#8217;s also the curious case of Mr. David Price, who has managed to make a sterling 2.25 ERA start to the season feel a little nerve-wracking. Three of Price&#8217;s four starts have been great, as he&#8217;s only allowed one run combined between them. Then there&#8217;s the New York start &#8212; on April 11, Price allowed four runs in only one inning before leaving the game due to numbness in his pitching hand. It seems that Price is fine, especially in an impressive follow-up performance Tuesday against Mike Trout and the Angels. Still, it was a weird injury that still hasn&#8217;t been fully explained, and further issues with Price could compromise what currently looks to be impressive depth in the starting rotation. Considering the city of Boston seems to be cursed by the Pagan God of Sports Injuries, it&#8217;s something that will have to sit in the back of fans&#8217; minds for the time being.</p>
<p>These are all things that, in a vacuum, could lead to an even better Red Sox team in 2018 than we&#8217;ve seen so far. It&#8217;s certainly possible! Baseball, though, is famously not played in a vacuum. The most likely outcome for the Red Sox is probably some kind of middle ground. Some of the early standout performers will come down to Earth eventually, and some players we expect to perform well could underwhelm. These are normal things for any team in any season.</p>
<p>Teams that get off to this kind of start often have a lot of regression down to the mean ahead of them. The Red Sox are unique in that, despite being off to such a hot start, they seem to have nearly as much room to improve as they do to regress. They <em>probably</em> won&#8217;t win 86 percent of their games for the entire season, but with some better breaks in terms of health and performance, they may not slow down as much as one might expect. That could turn out to be the recipe for a very special 2018 Red Sox season.</p>
<p><em>Header photo by Kirby Lee &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Decade of Red Sox Relievers</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/21/koji-ueharas-place-in-red-sox-lore/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/21/koji-ueharas-place-in-red-sox-lore/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2018 13:00:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Miller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Daniel Bard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Papelbon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[junichi tazawa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koji Uehara]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox have rolled out a ton of truly terrifying relievers over the last 10 years.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Spring Training is well underway, which has the baseball world looking ahead to the upcoming season. Despite this, some recent news has me looking backwards a little bit. On March 9, Koji Uehara elected to <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/972191729980932096" target="_blank">return to Japan</a> to play out (presumably) the remainder of his professional career Yomiuri Giants. Koji spent last season with the Chicago Cubs, but like the rest of that roster, the season was a struggle. At 42 years old, he&#8217;s nearing the end of the rope, and it seems his MLB career will be ending at nine years.</p>
<p>Koji is inextricably tied to the 2013 championship team, of course. His campaign that year was one of the most uniquely dominant pitching performances I can remember, high-fiving his way through countless high-leverage innings on the way to the title. In honor of the end of Koji&#8217;s MLB career, I spent some time thinking about how his unbelievable 2013 season stacks up against other performances in recent Red Sox history. Let&#8217;s take a look at the competition and see who boasts the best individual bullpen season among Red Sox teams since 2007.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/03/ortizgif.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-36570" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/03/ortizgif.gif" alt="ortizgif" width="450" height="253" /></a></p>
<h4>Honorable Mention: Junichi Tazawa, 2012</h4>
<p><em>44 IP, 26.2 K%, 2.9 BB% 0.20 HR/9, 1.42 ERA, 1.82 FIP, 2.14 DRA</em></p>
<p>I wanted to make sure I mentioned Junichi Tazawa in this piece because, while I don&#8217;t think he has an individual season that quite ranks among the best of the past ten years, it feels as though he&#8217;s been underrated historically among Boston fans. Images of his rough final seasons in Boston are perhaps a little too fresh in people&#8217;s minds, but Tazawa was a workhorse for the Red Sox who deserves some warmer recognition.</p>
<p>Tazawa started the 2012 season pitching for Triple-A Pawtucket, and he hit the ground running as soon as he came up to the big-league club to replace Mark Melancon (remember him?). A lot of praise is (deservedly) spent on Koji&#8217;s absurd aversion to walks in 2013, but Tazawa actually managed a <em>lower </em>walk rate in 2012, allowing only five free passes in his 44 major league innings. Perhaps most notably, Tazawa was a <em>horse </em>&#8211; he pitched 86.1 innings between Triple-A in the majors in 2012 and exceeded the 60 IP mark in each of the next two years, while pitching almost exclusively high-leverage situations. John Farrell leaned on Tazawa almost to a fault, and although his overuse created issues in later years, he was an indispensable piece of the bullpen puzzle for some time.</p>
<p>Tazawa never got the kind of glory a traditional closer would &#8212; high-leverage, non-closing relievers have historically struggled to get consistent recognition &#8212; but I haven&#8217;t forgotten about him.</p>
<h4>5 &#8212; Daniel Bard, 2010</h4>
<p><em>74.2 IP, 25.8 K%, 10.2 BB%, 0.72 HR/9, 1.93 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 2.96 DRA</em></p>
<p>Statistically, Daniel Bard&#8217;s 2010 might not quite compare to the other seasons mentioned on this list, but it&#8217;s the context of his brief run as the team&#8217;s setup man that gets him here. Bard once looked like the future of the Red Sox bullpen, a potent fireballer with some of the most ridiculous stuff I&#8217;ve ever seen. Across his first three seasons in the majors, he averaged close to 98 miles per hour on his fastball and 84 on his notorious wipeout slider, making hitters look completely futile with hilarious regularity. This utterly absurd, 99 mph something that he dropped on Nick Swisher in 2011 might be the greatest individual pitch in MLB history.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/03/bardk1.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-36517" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/03/bardk1.gif" alt="bardk" width="320" height="180" /></a></p>
<p>Evidently, it wasn&#8217;t meant to last. As we all should well remember, a doomed attempt to convert Bard into a full-time starter destroyed first his command, then his confidence. After the wheels came off in 2012, Bard shuttled around the minor league teams of the Red Sox and other franchise, trying desperately to regain some of his former self. It didn&#8217;t work, and this past January, he retired at 32 years old.</p>
<p>In 2010, though, Bard was at the peak of his powers, and the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the closer role. The warning signs were hanging around &#8212; the walks in particular were a little too high &#8212; but he had that sparkling sub-2.00 ERA and he certainly <em>looked</em> good, so we were all willing to look past it. His 2011 might have been a little more steady in terms of peripherals, as he cut back on the walks significantly, but Bard Fever was never stronger than that first full season in the majors. He may have washed out dramatic fashion a couple years later, but I&#8217;ll always remember him for that dizzying peak.</p>
<h4>4 &#8212; Andrew Miller, 2014</h4>
<p><em>42.1 IP, 40.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 0.43 HR/9, 2.34 ERA, 1.69 FIP, 2.00 DRA</em></p>
<p>These days, we know Andrew Miller as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, and the foremost example of managers prioritizing high-leverage situations over traditional save situations. He&#8217;s not actually the Indians&#8217; closer, but he&#8217;s their best bullpen arm and a force of nature in the late innings.</p>
<p>Years ago, though, Miller was a struggling journeyman starter who couldn&#8217;t establish himself in the majors. Miller had no command over his pitches, and hitters more or less had their way with him &#8212; in some ways, it was not entirely dissimilar from Bard&#8217;s late career. Miller hit his nadir in 2010, when he posted an ERA north of 8.00 across 30.2 innings in the majors and one above 6.00 in 85.1 innings in Triple-A.</p>
<p>The Red Sox got their hands on Miller with a minor league deal thereafter, and by 2012, they&#8217;d finally embraced him as a full-time reliever. It was exactly what he needed; the walks came down and the strikeouts went <em>way</em> up. Miller&#8217;s 2014 was the peak of this Boston reinvention, short-lived as it was. He struck out over 40 percent of the batters he faced and combined with Uehara and Tazawa to form one of the most formidable late-inning units the Red Sox have fielded in recent years.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, they were formidable, but futile. The 2014 Red Sox were terrible, falling to the bottom of the AL East immediately after the 2013 championship, and if there&#8217;s one thing terrible teams do, it&#8217;s trade their relievers. Relievers, after all, are the most immediately expendable way for struggling franchises to bring quick prospect value to their farm team. Miller went to Baltimore, and while Eduardo Rodriguez looks to be a valuable starting pitcher for years to come, it still hurt a bit to see Miller dominating the 2016 playoffs with Cleveland en route to their World Series loss to the Cubs.</p>
<h4>3 &#8212; Jonathan Papelbon, 2007</h4>
<p><em>58.1 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 0.77 HR/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.41 DRA</em></p>
<p>You knew he was going to pop up here eventually.</p>
<p>Arguments can be made either way between Papelbon&#8217;s 2006 and 2007 seasons, but for me, his integral role in the 2007 championship gives that year the edge. Papelbon was a buzzsaw for his entire career in Boston, and the closest answer the Red Sox have ever had to the greatness of Mariano Rivera. He had a manic, unhinged energy on the mound, and while that persona would go on to <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/jonathan-papelbon-bryce-harper-altercation/c-151946476" target="_blank">cause him problems</a> in later years, it made him an instant fan favorite at Fenway Park. There were few more exciting moments in a Red Sox game than Papelbon walking out to &#8220;Shipping Up To Boston.&#8221;</p>
<p>Papelbon was essentially the spitting image of the traditional closer role, a fastball-centric fireballer who lived and died with his mid-90s four-seamer. He was also remarkably durable, pitching 60 innings or more in nine of his 10 seasons from 2006 to 2015. Ironically, 2007 was the one he didn&#8217;t, but he still threw 58.1 frames and appeared in 59 games. These days, he likely wouldn&#8217;t stand out quite as much in the current landscape of MLB relievers, but for the late 2000s, he was perpetually near the top.</p>
<p>In addition to his regular season performance, Papelbon threw 10.2 scoreless frames in the playoffs en route to the Red Sox second championship in four years. He was a consistently great playoff performer, with an ERA of exactly 1.00 in his 27 career postseason innings, but would never make another postseason appearance after the team&#8217;s short-lived stay in 2009. Papelbon flamed out as aggressively as he pitched, but he&#8217;s among the most important bullpen arms in the history of the franchise. The fact that he&#8217;s only third on this list is a testament to how great our next two entries really were.</p>
<h4>2 &#8212; Koji Uehara, 2013</h4>
<p><em>74.1 IP, 38.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 0.61 HR/9, 1.09 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 1.78 DRA</em></p>
<p>In 2013, Koji Uehara struck out 101 batters and walked only nine. Think about that for a minute.</p>
<p>If his career started 10 years earlier, teams would likely have laughed at the idea of using a pitcher with an 88 mph fastball as their closer. It was still a fairly weird concept in 2013, and he didn&#8217;t even begin the season as the closer. Closers have always traditionally tended towards the &#8220;97 mph flamethrower&#8221; type, which makes Koji one of the most unique pitchers to fill that role in recent baseball history. He didn&#8217;t have crazy velocity, but he did have a dominant sinker and a supernatural command of the strike zone, and in that particular 2013, hitters had no idea what to do with him. He was simply impossible to square up on. He allowed only five home runs on the season, and had a line drive rate of only 11.3 percent. For reference, Papelbon&#8217;s career-best mark in that regard was 15.3 percent.</p>
<p>The magic was fairly short-lived. For his following two seasons, Koji was merely very good rather than transcendent. Hitters started to catch up, and home runs became a greater bugaboo as he aged &#8211; he allowed twice as many in 2014 despite pitching 10 fewer innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped from above 10 in 2013-14 to around five in 2015-16, still a solid mark but not superhuman. In essence, he just got old.</p>
<p>That 2013 season was magical for a lot of reasons. The Red Sox were a team of cast-offs and underappreciated players like Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Stephen Drew. In other words, Koji was right at home. A return to the Red Sox this season was never really realistic &#8212; the Red Sox have more than a few right-handed relievers and his level of play isn&#8217;t where it once was &#8212; but it&#8217;s still bittersweet to see him leaving the league. Hopefully the Yomiuri Giants are prepared for some aggressive high-fives.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/03/koji.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-36571" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/03/koji.gif" alt="koji" width="500" height="280" /></a></p>
<p>And somehow, it still wasn&#8217;t the greatest season we&#8217;ve seen from a reliever in recent seasons. That one came just last year.</p>
<h4>1 &#8212; Craig Kimbrel, 2017</h4>
<p><em>69 IP, 49.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 0.78 HR/9, 1.43 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 1.89 DRA</em></p>
<p>The Red Sox paid a hefty price to acquire Kimbrel two seasons ago with a prospect haul beyond what you&#8217;d typically expect for a reliever in most situations, especially considering he was coming off a 2015 season in San Diego that wasn&#8217;t quite up to his typical level. While effective, his 2016 season wasn&#8217;t quite the performance you&#8217;d want to see from a player with such a price tag, either; he walked an enormous amount of batters en route to his first season with an ERA above 3.00. Some of the sheen started to come off one of the greatest bullpen arms in history.</p>
<p>Because of all this, I think it&#8217;s actually possible we collectively didn&#8217;t appreciate Kimbrel&#8217;s 2017 enough. It may well have been the best season of his career. Kimbrel struck out just shy of half the batters he faced &#8212; astonishingly not even a career-best in that regard &#8212; and he did it with the best command of the strike zone he&#8217;s ever shown. If there&#8217;s ever been some kind of weakness to Kimbrel&#8217;s game, it&#8217;s that he historically issued too many free passes (career walk rate of 9.5 percent), but it seems he finally just decided to&#8230; not do that anymore, I guess? Kimbrel he walked only 5.5 percent of the batters he faced, stranded 93.9 percent of the baserunners he allowed, gave up only 11 earned runs, and pitched 69 of the nicest innings from a reliever in Red Sox history.</p>
<p>While the 2018 Red Sox bullpen isn&#8217;t exactly a known quantity &#8212; Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are returning from long absences due to injury, while Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are solid but unspectacular middle-inning guys &#8212; Kimbrel is money in the bank. He&#8217;s among the greatest relievers in baseball history, and he somehow still seems to be getting better. If he continues to limit his free passes like he did last year, it&#8217;s entirely possible he could replace his own spot on this list. Wouldn&#8217;t that be something?</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kim Klement &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Kyle Martin Brings Us To The End</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/08/roster-recap-kyle-martin-brings-us-to-the-end/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/08/roster-recap-kyle-martin-brings-us-to-the-end/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Mar 2018 14:00:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Martin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=35810</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With Kyle Martin, the end is nigh for Roster Recaps.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s the end of another era here at BP Boston, as we finally, mercifully have reached the end of Roster Recaps. They&#8217;re done, finished, gone! <a title="Roster Recap: Steve Selsky Was Here" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/28/roster-recap-steve-selsky-was-here/" target="_blank">It&#8217;s</a> <a title="Roster Recap: A Guy Named Chase d’Arnaud" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/05/roster-recap-a-guy-named-chase-darnaud/" target="_blank">been</a> <a title="Roster Recap: Rajai Davis Was Here" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/roster-recap-rajai-davis-was-here/" target="_blank">a</a> <a title="Roster Recap: Roenis Elias Faces Two Batters" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/01/roster-recap-roenis-elias-faces-two-batters/" target="_blank">long</a>, <a title="Roster Recap: Robbie Ross’ Handful of Innings" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/13/roster-recap-robbie-ross-handful-of-innings/" target="_blank">difficult</a> <a title="Roster Recap: Schrödinger’s Kendrick" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/06/schrodingers-kendrick/" target="_blank">journey</a>, but we finally made it, and we did it together.</p>
<p>This year&#8217;s Roster Recap Mr. Irrelevant? None other than right-handed reliever Kyle Martin.</p>
<p>Kyle Martin probably doesn&#8217;t deserve to be the Mr. Irrelevant of this series. Relatively speaking, he still has more long-term value for the organization than, say, Rajai Davis or Kyle Kendrick, primarily because he&#8217;s <em>still here</em> and he might be able to Do Some Things at some point. As recently as 2017, he was still showing up on some <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-15-prospects-boston-red-sox-2/" target="_blank">prospect lists</a> for the organization, after all. He might be perilously close to organizational filler, but he&#8217;s not quite there yet.</p>
<p>Martin has had some interesting minor league seasons in recent years; his track record prior to 2017 is actually decently impressive. He put up consecutive seasons with a K/BB over 3.00 in Double- and Triple-A in 2015/16, and both FIP and xFIP felt he outperformed his actual runs-allowed numbers in those seasons. His ERA was 4.50 in 2015 and 3.38 in 2016, and his xFIP in each season was a sterling 2.98. Coupled with his nice changeup and solid strikeout numbers, that&#8217;s a pretty decent foundation to build off of. There&#8217;s some value to a middle-inning guy who can punch some hitters out, even if it&#8217;s not necessarily the most exciting thing any of us has ever seen.</p>
<p>That dynamic changed last season, however, as his Triple-A performance essentially dropped off a cliff. His strikeouts went down, his walks came <em>way</em> up, and FIP wasn&#8217;t his best friend anymore. He was worse than his previous minor league performance in almost every way, and more or less pitched his way out of a more significant role with the team last year. Martin entered the season as a possible option for middle relief with the major league squad, but instead, he pitched only 2.1 innings across two July appearances before being DFA&#8217;d to make room for Carson Smith&#8217;s return from the Disabled List. Therein lies the danger of being an eminently replaceable right-handed reliever, I suppose.</p>
<h4>What Went Right:</h4>
<p>Not much. I guess his 4.38 ERA in Triple-A wasn&#8217;t the worst thing that could have happened, and technically, he had a 3.86 ERA with the big league club. That&#8217;s about it. This wasn&#8217;t a season to write home about.</p>
<h4>What Went Wrong:</h4>
<p>Martin had his worst minor league season at the exact wrong time, and it effectively removed him from the major league conversation for the season. He struck out fewer batters, walked more, gave up more home runs, and had his second-worst minor league ERA &#8212; this time, without a shiny FIP to go with it. He faced 11 major league batters, allowed four of them to reach base, and the only strikeout he had is down below. Not great, Bob.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eEeTXL7WGX8?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<h4>What To Expect:</h4>
<p>Probably not a whole lot. He&#8217;ll be in Triple-A yet again, probably for the whole year. <em>If</em> he can return to his 2015/16 form, and <em>if </em>the Red Sox have a plethora of bullpen injuries, he <em>might</em> be able to find his way back to the majors this season, <em>maybe</em>.</p>
<p>The most interesting aspect of Martin&#8217;s season could end up being the Rule 5 Draft in December. If he does return to his previous levels of performance, it wouldn&#8217;t be difficult to imagine a team in need of bullpen help taking a flyer on him. He&#8217;s essentially a Quad-A player, but he might be useful to a team that lacks those sort of pitchers. The Red Sox added him to the 40-man roster last year to keep him out of the Rule 5 pool, but they have a plethora of middling righties on the 40-man at the moment, so they might not try to do so again. On second thought, if the Rule 5 Draft is the most interesting thing to expect from your season, maybe you <em>are</em> the right pick for the final Roster Recap.</p>
<p><em>Au revoir</em>, Roster Recaps. See you next year.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Aaron Doster &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Noe Ramirez is Another Reliever</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/21/roster-recap-noe-ramirez-is-another-reliever/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/21/roster-recap-noe-ramirez-is-another-reliever/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Feb 2018 14:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Kendrick]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Noe Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rajai Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roenis Elias]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=34829</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Noe Ramirez sure, uh, threw those baseballs. Yes he did. Uh-huh.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;re nearing the end of our Roster Recap series here at B-Pro Boston. This is my fourth contribution to this particular series, with Noe Ramirez joining <a title="Roster Recap: Rajai Davis Was Here" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/roster-recap-rajai-davis-was-here/" target="_blank">Rajai Davis</a>, <a title="Roster Recap: Roenis Elias Faces Two Batters" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/01/roster-recap-roenis-elias-faces-two-batters/" target="_blank">Roenis Elias</a>, and <a title="Roster Recap: Schrödinger’s Kendrick" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/06/schrodingers-kendrick/" target="_blank">Kyle Kendrick</a> on the list of players to whom I&#8217;ve turned a critical eye. The most interesting players on the roster were covered here quite early &#8212; you don&#8217;t want to kick off your offseason series with Rajai Davis&#8217; 18 games, after all &#8212; but it means the pickings have become pretty slim. Writing about <a title="Roster Recap: This Time, Mookie Betts Is Merely Great" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/roster-recap-this-time-mookie-betts-is-merely-great/" target="_blank">Mookie Betts</a> is a fun time, because Mookie Betts himself is fun. Writing about Roenis Elias? Well, it still can be, but you have to find the right way to go about it.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m writing about Noe Ramirez here, I promise. But first, some fun facts about the ragtag band of journeymen I&#8217;ve covered so far. In 2017, players that have been recapped by your&#8217;s truly&#8230;</p>
<ul>
<li>played in 23 total games</li>
<li>pitched 13.1 innings</li>
<li>surrendered 14 earned runs</li>
<li>scored seven runs</li>
<li>allowed three home runs</li>
<li>hit zero home runs</li>
<li>struck out eight batters</li>
<li>were struck out 14 times</li>
<li>allowed a batting average of .350</li>
<li>batted .242</li>
<li>posted a combined WAR of 0.1</li>
</ul>
<p>I believe it is actually impossible to draw up a four-man group of players on this roster who had <em>less</em> of an overall impact on the franchise than these four. Three of the four are no longer with the organization, after all, and the only one that remains (Elias) is far from guaranteed to make the majors in 2018. The only other pitchers to pitch fewer innings than Kendrick &#8212; who paced this group with a whopping 8.2 innings pitched &#8212; were Carson Smith (who will contribute this year), Kyle Martin (who is still here, at least as minor league filler), and Mitch Moreland (the starting first baseman). Three hitters recorded fewer plate appearances than Davis: Steve Selsky (who was pretty bad but is still around), Blake Swihart (a post-hype sleeper), and <a title="Roster Recap: A Guy Named Chase d’Arnaud" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/05/roster-recap-a-guy-named-chase-darnaud/" target="_blank">Chase d&#8217;Arnaud</a> (who needed one plate appearance to top Davis in fWAR). It&#8217;s the perfect storm of both barely playing and playing terribly.</p>
<p>How do you write 35 words for every plate appearance Rajai Davis made this season? How do you make an entire article out of Roenis Elias&#8217; two batters faced? In some ways, these are the best Roster Recaps &#8212; it&#8217;s like writing with the difficulty set to Very Hard. I have a sense of investment in these guys now; it&#8217;s about finding value in the little things. They might be bad at baseball, but they&#8217;re great at being my baseball sons.</p>
<p>Or something. I don&#8217;t know, it&#8217;s 23 games, man!</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s talk about Noe Ramirez, or something.</p>
<h4>What Went Right:</h4>
<p>Not much. Ramirez&#8217;s best performance of the season came after being claimed by the Angels, where he posted a 2.16 ERA and struck out 32% of the batters he faced&#8230; in 8.1 innings pitched. As a minor leaguer, Ramirez was fine; a 3.51 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings is pretty okay, but it&#8217;s nothing spectacular. I guess it sucks a little bit to lose a very cheap reliever with a good minor league track record under team control through 2023, but there was really nothing about Noe Ramirez&#8217;s 2017 that the Red Sox will miss.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/noe-ramirez-strands-two-runners/c-1821358983?tid=6479266" width="540" height="304" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<h4>What Went Wrong:</h4>
<p>The great irony of me recapping Noe Ramirez is that Ramirez was waived in August to make room for one of my previous recaps: Roenis Elias. When you&#8217;re waived for the guy who faced two major league batters all season, you probably had a rough year.</p>
<p>Ramirez is basically just a Quad-A reliever, which is probably the least valuable kind of Quad-A player. He pitched hundreds of innings for Boston&#8217;s farm system and had a fairly strong track record, but any time he came up to the big show, he got shelled. Interestingly, each of his three major league stints (2015, 2016, and 2017) lasted exactly 13 innings. This was certainly the best one, but it still came with a FIP north of 4.00. It&#8217;s a shame that a long-time organizational guy like Ramirez didn&#8217;t stick with the major league squad, but considering he&#8217;s now 28 years old,  it&#8217;s not much of a loss.</p>
<h4>What to Expect:</h4>
<p>Well, Noe Ramirez is an Angel now, so for the Red Sox&#8230; nothing. Maybe he finally sticks around in Los Angeles and contributes in some kind of middle relief role, but more likely, I&#8217;d expect 60 innings in Triple-A with a respectable ERA and some strikeouts. Not great, not terrible, just fine. That should be the subtitle for all these recaps, honestly.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kelley L Cox &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Schrödinger&#8217;s Kendrick</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/06/schrodingers-kendrick/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/06/schrodingers-kendrick/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Feb 2018 14:00:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.D. Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Kendrick]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=34055</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I'm here to inform you that, yes, this man is real.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think baseball is gaslighting me.</p>
<p>Upon reviewing the barren wasteland that is the list of remaining players in need of recaps, I quickly realized two things. First, that I had forgotten Kyle Kendrick was a baseball player who exists. I think I can be forgiven for that one, considering prior to last season, he hadn&#8217;t made a major league start since 2015, and it&#8217;s not like Kyle Kendrick was some kind of baseball royalty. His best season in terms of fWAR was 2.0 in 2013, and his ERA that year was 4.70 &#8212; I didn&#8217;t forget <i>Clayton Kershaw</i> here.</p>
<p>That said, the second, more pressing thing was that I have no memory of Kyle Kendrick ever participating in Red Sox baseball in any form. The information simply does not exist in my brain. He played for Boston? Last year? Are you sure?</p>
<p>This required research. I&#8217;m no encyclopedia of obscure Boston athletes &#8212; as much as I&#8217;d like to be &#8212; but I felt like I&#8217;d remember if a guy who has over 1,200 major league innings under his belt pitched for my team. I quickly ran a search to find out if Kyle Kendrick was, in fact, a Boston baseball player for some length of time. Sure enough, there he was. Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and BP all tell me he had a 12.96 ERA in two starts last year. Wow!</p>
<p>This goes deeper than just my faulty memory, though. This is a <i>conspiracy. &#8220;</i>Surely Kyle Kendrick can&#8217;t <em>still</em> be a Red Sox pitcher, right?&#8221; I asked myself, and for a glorious moment, I felt redeemed. Wikipedia said that he was, in fact, a free agent. To the best of my knowledge, he still is. But I&#8217;m not sure if my knowledge can be trusted anymore.</p>
<p>I looked through the Kyle Kendrick Google results a little further, certain in my belief that I am the only human to have Googled Kyle Kendrick&#8217;s name in the past six months apart from <em>maybe</em> Kyle Kendrick himself. On the second page, I discover an NBC Sports article: &#8220;Kyle Kendrick will end up in Boston&#8217;s rotation eventually.&#8221; The article was written by Evan Drellich back in March of last year, but the time stamp on Google itself? <em>Seven days ago</em>.</p>
<p>You might think I&#8217;m losing my mind. I&#8217;m not completely sure on the subject myself, but for this, I have receipts.</p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/01/kendrick.png"><img class="size-full wp-image-34062 aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/01/kendrick.png" alt="kendrick" width="601" height="86" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/01/kendrick2.png"><img class="size-full wp-image-34063 aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/01/kendrick2.png" alt="kendrick2" width="657" height="126" /></a></p>
<p>Why did it display this way? The Google search was performed on January 31, 2018, so it&#8217;s not like the article was seven days ago last year. Is Google trying to say Kyle Kendrick will be back? Is this a <em>threat</em>?</p>
<p>Why seven days? Why that particular article? Why were the other articles fine? Why <em>Kyle Kendrick?</em></p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think I completely know the status of Schrodinger&#8217;s Kendrick at this point. I <em>think</em> he started two games for the Red Sox last season, and I <em>think</em> he&#8217;s no longer a member of the team. I&#8217;ve scrawled &#8220;<em>Kyle Kendrick is gone. Don&#8217;t believe his lies.</em>&#8221; into my hand in the event this is some kind of <em>Memento</em> situation.</p>
<p>I supposed I should talk about Kyle Kendrick&#8217;s actual performance during his alleged Red Sox stint last season, despite my mind having been torn in two. Kyle Kendrick started two games last season, gave up 12 runs, and lost them both. He was outrighted off the 40-man roster and ended up with Pawtucket, where he finished with 101.2 innings pitched and an ERA of 5.67.</p>
<p>And that about covers it. That&#8217;s all I&#8217;ve got on Kyle Kendrick. I&#8217;ll be pondering the mystery of his Red Sox career &#8212; along with the state of my own sanity &#8212; for some time. Was he ever really here? Will he be back? Did he kidnap Rick Porcello and pretend to be him the rest of the season? It&#8217;s hard to say.</p>
<p>Please sign J.D. Martinez, Dave. Give me something, <i>anything</i> else to think about.</p>
<h4>What Went Right:</h4>
<p>I&#8217;ll, uhh, get back to you on that one.</p>
<h4>What Went Wrong:</h4>
<p>He lost his only two games and I lost my sanity.</p>
<h4>What to Expect:</h4>
<p>That I will forget Kyle Kendrick again mere minutes after I submit this recap.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Steve Mitchell &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Roenis Elias Faces Two Batters</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/01/roster-recap-roenis-elias-faces-two-batters/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/01/roster-recap-roenis-elias-faces-two-batters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Feb 2018 14:00:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Pomeranz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roenis Elias]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=34042</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Roenis Elias is...well, he's still alive, so that's good.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baseball is the greatest sport for small sample sizes. It&#8217;s the most data-driven sport in the world, and with so many numbers spread across a 162-game season, things can get really weird really fast when there isn&#8217;t enough data to work with.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s where we find Roenis Elias.</p>
<p>Elias was one of Boston&#8217;s roster expansion call-ups this past September, and he made his season debut on September 4 against Toronto &#8212; a game the Red Sox lost, 10-4. He faced two batters, striking out one and walking the other.</p>
<p>And&#8230; that&#8217;s it. That was the end of Roenis Elias&#8217; MLB season. Two batters faced, 11 pitches thrown, one third of an inning completed. It hasn&#8217;t even been added to his <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roenis_El%C3%ADas" target="_blank">Wikipedia page</a>. So what does one third of an inning like this do for a player&#8217;s stats? Let&#8217;s take a look. Elias had&#8230;</p>
<ul>
<li>27 strikouts per nine innings</li>
<li>27 walks per nine innings</li>
<li>a left-on-base percentage of 100 percent</li>
<li>an ERA of 0.00</li>
<li>a FIP of 6.16</li>
<li>a DRA of 0.00</li>
<li>no batted ball data whatsoever (because none of his pitches were put in play)</li>
<li>0.0 fWAR</li>
<li>0.0 bWAR</li>
<li>0.0 WARP</li>
</ul>
<p>Those last two numbers are particularly poignant to me, because they&#8217;re saying that the single out Elias recorded had no bearing whatsoever on the Red Sox season. Roenis Elias struck out a major league hitter, something you or I could almost certainly never accomplish, and it had the same effect on the team as him sneezing in the clubhouse would have. Maybe even less than that, if he got somebody sick as a result. That&#8217;s one of the most nihilist baseball facts I can imagine. (<em>ed. note: Eat Arby&#8217;s.</em>)</p>
<p>Of course, those 11 pitches weren&#8217;t the only ones Elias threw in 2017. He only appeared in 10 minor league games due to injury, but managed to make a stop at just about every minor league location the Red Sox have &#8212; one game for Lowell, one game for Salem, one game for Portland, and seven games for Pawtucket. It wasn&#8217;t a great season for him in most regards; his strikeouts were down, he walked too many batters, and he gave up 11 home runs in 42.2 minor league innings. Elias has been a decent major league contributor in the past and was good, if unremarkable, in Pawtucket last year, so his true talent level when healthy is likely above what we saw from him this season.</p>
<p>He got that one fleeting taste of Major League Baseball, though, and at least we got some fun facts out of it.</p>
<h4>What Went Right:</h4>
<p>Roenis Elias struck out 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.</p>
<h4>What Went Wrong:</h4>
<p>Roenis Elias walked 50 percent of the batters he faced in the MLB last season.</p>
<h4>What To Expect:</h4>
<p>Honestly? Roenis Elias could actually be interesting this season. For real!</p>
<p style="text-align: left">The Boston Globe has reported that he&#8217;ll compete for a bullpen spot in Spring Training, and if he can stay healthy, he offers some mildly intriguing depth. He threw 163.2 decent innings for the Mariners in 2014 and 115.1 more the following year, so we know he can be stretched out as a starter. With that in mind, there&#8217;s room for him to contribute in a long relief or spot starter role this season. Plus, he&#8217;s a lefty.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/EDzoBS91OaE" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p style="text-align: center">(<em>This is the most recent Elias highlight in the majors &#8212; over 18 months ago.</em>)</p>
<p>The back end of the Red Sox rotation has a decent few options, but just as many questions. The top four is written in stone: Chris Sale, David Price, Drew Pomeranz, and Rick Porcello. The fifth spot is still in question, however. Eduardo Rodriguez is probably the favorite, but he&#8217;s struggled to stay healthy thus far in his career. After him, we&#8217;re looking at Steven Wright, whose <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/steven_wright_has_domestic_assault_case_retired_but_mlb" target="_blank">domestic assault</a> case is still under investigation by the MLB and could result in disciplinary action. Keeping in mind that even the best pitching rotations never stay healthy across a full MLB season, the value in a guy who can provide some decent innings in a pinch becomes more apparent.</p>
<p>Elias&#8217; biggest competition this spring is probably someone like 27-year-old Brian Johnson, who is also getting a bullpen audition this Spring Training. You could probably call Johnson a post-hype prospect, at least if you define &#8220;hype&#8221; as &#8220;Well, his floor looks pretty high!&#8221; I don&#8217;t mind him, but it&#8217;s also not the toughest bar for Elias to clear, considering he&#8217;s a player with a few hundred decent major league innings under his belt. He had a great Winter League showing this offseason, now he needs to stay healthy and carry that momentum into the spring.</p>
<p>And hey, repeating that 50 percent MLB strikeout rate from 2017 couldn&#8217;t hurt, either.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kim Klement &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Red Sox, The Celtics, and the Future</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/25/the-red-sox-the-celtics-and-the-future/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/25/the-red-sox-the-celtics-and-the-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Jan 2018 14:00:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BP Boston Unfiltered]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Benintendi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Cherington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carl Crawford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Dombrowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Ortiz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Pedroia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hanley Ramirez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.D. Martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Groome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Millar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Youkilis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koji Uehara]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Chavis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mitch Moreland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pablo Sandoval]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Devers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xander Bogaerts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=33694</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There's an innate need for stability that the Red Sox don't seem to have.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Boston’s sports franchises are doing interesting things. The Patriots are back in the Super Bowl, the Celtics are in first place in the Eastern Conference, and the Bruins are second in the NHL in points. For Boston fans that have come to expect consistent success, this year has been no disappointment.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">For all those teams’ success, there’s a notable local organization lagging behind in terms of hype: the Red Sox. Few people seem to be talking about them right now. It’s been an unusually quiet offseason across the MLB, but perhaps the only Red Sox talking point of note right now is the extended stare-down with free agent J.D. Martinez. After that, it’s… Mitch Moreland’s two-year deal? Yikes.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I’m not used to feeling so unenthused about the Red Sox. They were the team that brought me into Boston sports, after all. In a manner of speaking, I suppose I&#8217;m sort of a bandwagon fan, but it wasn&#8217;t one of the championship teams that brought me here. No, it was the 2009 team that did that &#8212; if you remember, that&#8217;s the one that got swept by the Angels in the ALDS.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/e45Pob6WbR8?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It was a simple decision: “Maybe I&#8217;ll give baseball a shot.” I was in high school, and football wasn&#8217;t quite cutting it for me, so I felt it was time to branch out. The Red Sox and Angels were on, and it didn&#8217;t take long for me to get hooked. I loved Dustin Pedroia’s fiery demeanor, David Ortiz’s easy confidence, and most of all, Kevin Youkilis’ completely absurd batting stance. Jon Lester’s triumph over lymphoma was incredibly cool, and Josh Beckett looked liable to beat up an opposing hitter at a moment’s notice, which was also pretty cool in its own way.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The season ended too soon after, but it was a busy offseason for me; I needed to learn more about these players, this franchise, this city. I knew about The Curse and the legendary 2004 team that finally ended it. I didn&#8217;t know about the comeback against the Yankees, or Kevin Millar’s endless quotability, or Manny’s tendency to always be Manny. I didn&#8217;t know they went back and did it again in 2007 with plenty of new faces, including the undefinable Pedroia, the Laser Show and the Muddy Chicken, who I did know was a man after my own heart as soon as I read about his “Ask Jeff Francis who the fuck I am,” quote.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I’m on my ninth year with the Boston Red Sox now, and I&#8217;ve seen my fair share of highs and lows, from fried chicken and beer to getting a chance to watch a Boston championship myself. I got to see David Ortiz’s famed postseason heroics live before my eyes, as he was engulfed in flames against the Cardinals and drove the team of beards and Koji Uehara high fives to their third title in ten years. Those 2013 Red Sox rebounded from the worst record in the AL East the year before, which in some ways encapsulates what its been like to follow this team over that time.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the Red Sox built my Boston fandom, then the Celtics cemented it. My timing wasn’t any better with them &#8212; I started following just late enough to miss the dominant 2007-08 championship team. Still, over the next several seasons, I was hooked. The “Big Three” Celtics were a team of dominant personalities &#8212; Paul Pierce’s unshakable confidence, Kevin Garnett’s frenzied barking, Ray Allen’s unflappable consistency &#8212; and even as they all began to grow old, there was a pridefulness to them. The decrepit Celtics were an annoyance, the team that would give too much effort every night and use their veteran saavy to frustrate younger, more athletic teams. They took LeBron James and the eventual champion Miami Heat to seven games in the 2011-12 Eastern Conference Finals, and it was sort of a last hurrah for the group. LeBron might have buried them, but they went out swinging.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N7Gvg4M2wVs?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Since the Celtics’ loss to Miami and the Red Sox win over St. Louis the next year, the two franchises have seemed to trend in different directions. The Celtics hit rock bottom in 2013-14, going 25-57 and finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference. They’ve made the playoffs and improved their record in every season since. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been, to some extent, treading water. They’ve posted two losing seasons since the championship, followed by consecutive 93-win campaigns where they never really felt like a legitimate contender.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It feels as though there’s just more of a </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">plan</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> behind the Celtics than the Red Sox. Danny Ainge has spent years meticulously compiling and flipping draft picks, capitalizing on undervalued players, and finding the right opportunities to spend. The two most significant free agent signings in franchise history &#8212; Al Horford and Gordon Hayward &#8212; came in the past two offseasons. Ainge avoids panic moves and trades from a position of strength as well as any GM in professional sports, to the point where he’s often teased for his reluctance to part with his assets. This past summer, the Celtics passed on a number of potential deals for superstars who changed teams. Paul George was available, but is also on the final year of his contract, likely to bolt for Los Angeles this coming summer. It was a bad bet for Ainge to pay up for a player he couldn’t guarantee he could keep, so he didn’t.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">On the flip side, the Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two &#8212; Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski. Cherington, though he had his own faults, was more similar to Ainge &#8212; building up the farm system and avoiding bad contracts that would kill flexibility… right up until he signed two </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">awful </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">contracts that </span><span style="font-weight: 400">destroyed</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> his flexibility in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.</span></p>
<blockquote><p>The Red Sox have seen three executives in charge of baseball operations since 2011, and few baseball executives are more different than one another in terms of philosophy than the latter two.</p></blockquote>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Enter Dombrowski, who, to a fault, loves the big splash. Dombrowski was hired in August of 2015, and by November, he’d already shelled out $217 million to David Price and shipped four prospects away in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. That’s not to say these deals were the wrong things to do at the time, but considering Dombrowski’s body of work, it’s a fair critique to say that he often opts to throw money and assets at problems until they go away.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Subsequently, this current offseason isn’t terribly surprising. Dombrowski is locked in a staring contest with J.D. Martinez, who is a player this lineup desperately needs. The Red Sox are starved for power, and previous deals have left the farm system depleted enough to make trades for top-end talent difficult. If Martinez ends up elsewhere, there may not be another move to be made right now.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">And in some ways, that’s the point. Danny Ainge didn’t </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">need</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> Paul George. He was building on a team that made the conference finals the year before and months later is sitting in first place in the conference right now, all while sitting on a treasure hoard of draft picks and young talent. He’s a strong, independent GM who don’t need no blockbuster trade. There were dozens of pathways open to the Celtics this past summer, and all Ainge had to do was find the one he liked the best. The one he chose has the Celtics competitive right now without sacrificing virtually any long-term upside.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This kind of result is difficult to achieve without consistency, and, in essence, the Red Sox have been an organizational roller coaster. Cherington took charge and immediately had to address missteps by Theo Epstein, most notably the infamous Carl Crawford contract. Since his departure, Cherington’s carefully cultivated farm system has largely either graduated or been shipped off by Dombrowski. Conversely, Dombrowski has had to struggle with those albatross contracts for Sandoval and Ramirez, the latter of which is still owed $44 million over the next two years, assuming his option vests. They’ve been tying knots and challenging the next guy to unravel them. Is Dave Dombrowski the guy to lead a franchise to sustained, long-term success? Tigers fans of the past three seasons might have some thoughts on the matter.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This is all a long way of saying that, as a fan, the Red Sox don’t give me that feeling of utter confidence the way the Celtics do. Remember the feeling we all had when that large contract for Pablo Sandoval looked likely, even though the case against that signing was obvious? It’s certainly unrealistic to expect any team to operate as efficiently and with as high of a success rate as the Celtics have over the past 10+ years, but there’s an unavoidable aura of “I hope this doesn’t blow up in our faces” in place.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">My point is not to predict doom and gloom with the current state of the Red Sox. Far from it. They’re more likely than not to win 90+ games again this season, and they have a collection of young stars like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and Rafael Devers that will be anchoring the lineup for years to come. They have two Cy Young winners in their starting rotation, and those guys aren’t even as good as their ace. If you’re going to have problems with your baseball franchise, these are probably the ones to have &#8212; it certainly beats being the Derek Jeter-led Marlins.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/brLINZMIeic?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But following the Red Sox transformed my sports fandom, and not long after that, the Celtics did it again. It’s impossible not to compare the two. I love watching Mookie Betts and Chris Sale, but on the macro level, something’s just fundamentally </span><span style="font-weight: 400">off </span><span style="font-weight: 400">with the Red Sox right now, and it’s never more apparent than when the Celtics are on TV. With as much as the team has going for it right now, it’s telling that they’re receiving so little buzz &#8212; and that’s without mentioning how the Yankees appear to be rising fast.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I can’t say for sure how good the Red Sox will be this season &#8212; too much depends on Martinez’s status, first and foremost. Players like Price, Ramirez, and Pedroia are aging, Chris Sale has two years remaining on his contract, and younger contributors like Betts and Bogaerts are into their arbitration seasons. Jason Groome and Michael Chavis are nice prospects, but even Groome is still a-ways off, and the system around them is thin. Major roster decisions are coming in the next few years, and it’s hard to divine the greater plan in place here &#8212; if in fact there is one.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I know the Celtics will be very good, though. They already are, and there isn’t much reason to think they won’t continue to be for years to come. Danny Ainge has put together a well-oiled machine that has missed the playoffs only three times since the 2003-04 season. For a Red Sox franchise in need of some year-to-year consistency and sustained success, looking to their sibling franchise for some ideas might not be the worst idea.</span></p>
<p><em>Photo by Greg M. Cooper &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Rajai Davis Was Here</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/roster-recap-rajai-davis-was-here/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/roster-recap-rajai-davis-was-here/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2018 14:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jed Lowrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rajai Davis]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox were graced by Rajai Davis' greatness - if only for a short time.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the 2016 World Series, Rajai Davis hit one of the most improbable home runs I&#8217;ve ever seen in my life. The owner of 55 career home runs across 1,204 games at the time, Davis somehow smacked one deep off of human baseball cannon Aroldis Chapman to tie the game for the Indians in the eighth inning. It was the first home run of his postseason career.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1210972683" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>We all know how this game turned out for the Indians. Two innings later, as Kris Bryant recorded the final out in the bottom of the 10th inning, Davis&#8217; finest moment crumbled into cruel, false hope &#8212; a historical footnote, rather than postseason legend. It really was a ridiculous home run, though.</p>
<p>It was the most interesting thing that has happened in Rajai Davis&#8217; MLB career, but the truth is that Rajai Davis just isn&#8217;t a very interesting baseball player. He&#8217;s made a career out of being not terrible, but also not great. Just useful. That season with the Indians wasn&#8217;t the best overall season of Davis&#8217; career &#8212; his 3.4 fWAR campaign with Oakland in 2009 dramatically outstrips it &#8212; but he smacked a career-high 12 regular season homers across from 43 stolen bases and maintaining generally positive performance in the outfield. His .302 wOBA wasn&#8217;t anything to write home about, but his overall package made him a fine, if replaceable, starter.</p>
<p>Davis opened last season in an anonymous Athletics lineup that consisted of Jed Lowrie and some kids. He didn&#8217;t hit particularly well, but he made it up by being a negative in the outfield and falling off as a baserunner. After Jackie Bradley Jr. sprained his thumb, the Red Sox traded 18-year-old Rafael Rincones (who wasn&#8217;t a top-30 guy in the farm system) for him.  Now, I&#8217;m tasked with writing something interesting about the decisively uninteresting Rajai Davis and his decisively uninteresting Red Sox tenure.</p>
<p>With that in mind, here is every single game of Rajai Davis&#8217; legendary Red Sox career. We have been blessed by his presence, and I shall never forget it.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 1: Red Sox 6, Indians 13</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-1, K</h4>
<p>Rajai Davis&#8217; Red Sox debut came in a time of crisis, down seven runs as Mookie Betts exited the game in the bottom of the seventh inning with a sore knee. His only opportunity to hit would come in the top of the 9th. He struck out looking. You&#8217;ll get &#8216;em next time, champ.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 2: Red Sox 3, Orioles 16</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-4</h4>
<p>The first start of Rajai Davis&#8217; Red Sox career would come at home against the Orioles. Playing centerfield in relief of the injured Jackie Bradley Jr., Davis batted eighth in the order and was quite a bit more active. Davis singled in the bottom of the fifth off Jeremy Hellickson. The stress of Davis&#8217; presence on first base must have been too much for Hellickson, as he would threw a wild pitch two batters later and allow Davis to take second. Unfortunately, that batter was the fan who pretended to be Brock Holt all of last season, and he would ground out to end the inning.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the seventh, Davis&#8217; tremendous offensive pressure would allow him to take a base yet again &#8212; shortstop Tim Beckham, fearful of his raw speed, committed a throwing error to first, leaving Davis safe. Davis would claim second once again on a fielder&#8217;s indifference. It&#8217;s not like catcher Welington Castillo had a prayer of throwing out Rajai Davis anyways.</p>
<p>The Red Sox would lose by 13.</p>
<h4>Game 3: Red Sox 1, Orioles 2</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-4, K, CS</h4>
<p>After a well-earned night off for his tremendous exertion in the first Baltimore game, Rajai Davis &#8211; Mr. Consistency, you could call him &#8211; went 1-of-4 against the Orioles once again. He reached on an infield single in the bottom of the fourth inning, but was caught stealing. Hubris defeats even the greatest of us.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 4: Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 0</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 2-4, 2 R, 2 SB</h4>
<p>Spoiler-alert: this is Rajai Davis&#8217; greatest game in a Boston uniform &#8212; he picked up 22 percent of his total hits with the Red Sox in this game, as well as 66 percent of his stolen bases. Davis singled in the top of the sixth and eighth innings, and each time stole second before coming around to score. He also hit leadoff, because 2017 John Farrell deployed lineups as his own form of abstract art.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1786110483" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<h4>Game 5: Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 1</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-4, BB, 3 K</h4>
<p>For the sake of Rajai Davis, we won&#8217;t discuss this game. We have to respect our living legends.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 6: Red Sox 2, Yankees 6</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-3, 2 K</h4>
<p>Another bump in the road to baseball immortality for Rajai Davis, who suffered the ignominy of being subbed out for the impostor wearing Brock Holt&#8217;s skin after two strikeouts. This was also the game where C.C. Sabathia got mad at the Red Sox for bunting once. Fun times.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Games 7-13:</h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left">Rajai Davis: 0-5, 2 K, R</h4>
<p>With Jackie Bradley returned from the disabled list, Rajai Davis was relegated to the bench. Over this stretch of time &#8212; roughly half of September &#8212; Davis primarily appeared as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. He did not record a hit or a stolen base. Scored a run, though!</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 14: Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 9</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-1, 2B, RBI, R</h4>
<p>Woah! Rajai Davis extra base hit! Davis showcased his clutch gene in this game, pinch-hitting in the bottom of the eighth inning down seven runs and helping spark a Sox rally. Davis doubled home Chris Young and blazed in a run of his own off a single from Hanley Ramirez. Those would be the last Red Sox runs of the game, however.</p>
<p>Fun fact: Rajai Davis&#8217; wRC+ for this game was 718. Mike Trout&#8217;s career wRC+ is 169. Get bent, Mike.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1851432483" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<h4>Game 15: Red Sox 10, Blue Jays 7</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 2-4, 2B, 2 R, RBI, SB</h4>
<p>Rajai Davis&#8217; Power Explosion continued into the following day, as Davis would blast another double against Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada and his formidable 4.98 ERA. This was a showcase of the all-around package we&#8217;ve come to expect from Rajai Davis year-in and year-out: two runs, an RBI, a stolen base, and an extra base hit.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 16: Red Sox 2, Astros 3</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-3, K, R</h4>
<h4>Game 17: Red Sox 3, Astros 4</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-4, K</h4>
<p>The final three games of Rajai Davis&#8217; storied Red Sox career would happen to come against the Houston Astros. The first two came in the final series of the regular season, and saw Davis pick up a base hit in each. You could say this made him something of an Astro-killer. It might not be true, but you <em>could</em> say it.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 18: Red Sox 2, Astros 8</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-0</h4>
<p>Shockingly, the Red Sox did not give Davis or his career playoff line of .175/.209/.275 much of an opportunity in October. Davis made his only appearance of the series in the second game in relief of Mookie Betts in right field, when Betts tweaked his wrist in the eighth inning. Davis did not hit a dramatic home run, and in fact, did not even record a plate appearance. Thus ended his Red Sox career. We shall never see his like again.</p>
<hr />
<h4>What Went Right:</h4>
<p>The Red Sox brought Rajai Davis in to fill an outfield spot while Jackie Bradley Jr. recovered from a sprained thumb. He may have hit terribly, graded negatively in the field, and only swiped three bases, but he was undeniably very good at existing. So, there&#8217;s that.</p>
<h4>What Went Wrong:</h4>
<p>Rajai Davis did not hit for the cycle even a single time.</p>
<h4>What to Expect:</h4>
<p>At some point, a team will decide they need somebody to run a whole bunch. Rajai Davis will heroically answer the call.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kevin Sousa &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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