The punishment obviously hurts the Red Sox. They lose five young players from the minor-league system and are forced to sit on the sidelines when the rest of the league—even other teams under similar spending restrictions—are able to stockpile loads of Latin American talent. Last year, even though the Red Sox were under the penalty, they still signed 45 players. This year that number will be zero, which could have an odd effect on how Boston rosters its low-level minor-league teams over the next few years. Like many of MLB’s decisions, however, this one looks much worse once you consider how it impacts the lives of 16- and 17-year-old kids.

For the five players granted free agency, it could be worse. They get to keep the signing bonuses they received last year from the Red Sox plus any excess money they earn this year beyond $300,000, perhaps getting a nice bump to their bank account. However, they’re forced to leave their first organization just a year into their professional career (er, apprenticeship) and form a relationship with another team, another group of players, and another staff of scouts and instructors. Maybe playing for the Red Sox, specifically, was a dream for these kids; maybe they had a great bond with a scout or front office staffer from Boston. Maybe there won’t be similar interest around the league for their services, and they’ll end up signing for next to nothing with little chance of moving up through their new organization.

Even worse, consider the players who were expected to sign with the Red Sox in the 2016-2017 signing period. Even though it’s technically against the rules, teams negotiate with international amateurs well before the new J-2 period actually opens, generally all but signing the dotted line in advance. That’s why, on Saturday, hordes of young players were signed almost immediately—it wasn’t as if major-league teams were all scrambling to sign these kids; the deals were already hammered out, if not yet official.

When MLB suspended the Red Sox from signing any players for this signing period, they ultimately took away contracts from a bunch of young players who were expected to sign with Boston on Saturday.

So when MLB suspended the Red Sox from signing any players for this signing period, they ultimately took away contracts from a bunch of young players who were expected to sign with Boston on Saturday. And they did it just a single day before the J-2 period opened, leaving those players—and their “buscones,” or agents, who take a large cut of each player’s signing bonus—with little time to work on getting a deal ironed out with another team. Imagine preparing to officially sign with a major-league team only to have the rug pulled out because MLB decided to crack down on something you weren’t even involved in.

What complicates matters more is that, like the Red Sox, most other clubs have already worked out deals with many of the players they want. So when a new player unexpectedly re-enters the marketplace, a number of teams might not possess the budget or space to add him. Not to mention, knowing those players were originally likely to sign with Boston, teams may have stopped keeping tabs on them at some point, and—like the five players turned free agents—might not have the knowledge or interest to ink them to big contracts.

Just because package deals or even more nefarious international dealings have gone without penalty in recent years doesn’t mean MLB was wrong to come down hard on the Red Sox. They broke the rules. Make no mistake, though, they’ll be okay. Yoan Moncada is stashed away safely in Portland, and the rest of the 2014-2015 international class—the one that put Boston under spending restrictions to begin with—went untouched by MLB’s decision. Further, Boston can return to international normalcy next year, with both spending restrictions and penalties in the rearview mirror.

What’s disappointing is that this decision doesn’t just hurt the Red Sox, it hurts young players just getting started in professional baseball. For MLB (and the Players Association) those young players are just unfamiliar names from faraway lands, 16 year olds with little chance of ever showing up on our TV screens. But they’re also important to the heartbeat of the game, and it’s important that they’re given every opportunity to succeed. It’s almost as if MLB either doesn’t fully grasp the unintended consequences of its decisions or simply doesn’t care, particularly when those decisions involve young players. Either way, that’s something that should change.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

TOP PLAY (WPA)
Dellin Betances vs. Christian Vazquez is supposed to end in one of a few ways: a weak ground ball to second, a strikeout, or maybe—if it’s Vazquez’s lucky night—a seeing-eye single into center field. Last night Vazquez turned around a 97 mph Betances fastball and deposited it somewhere in the general vicinity of the Massachusetts Turnpike (+.323 WPA), giving the Red Sox an 8-6 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

That’s not supposed to happen, but sometimes it does, and that’s one of baseball’s wonderful quirks. Vazquez is on this team for his defense, and he’ll probably have prolonged offensive slumps at different points in 2016—PECOTA projects him for a .245 True Average and his bat has never been highlighted in a scouting report. But last night, for a flickering moment, he was Manny Ramirez.

BOTTOM PLAY (WPA)
With the score tied and runners on first and third with two outs in the sixth inning, David Ortiz popped up to Mark Teixeira in foul ground (-.076), ending the Sox rally. If only Ortiz could come through in a big spot every once in a while…

For what it’s worth, the Yankees monopolized the rest of the low WPA plays, led by Didi Gregorius’s ninth-inning strikeout (-.075) and A-Rod’s fielder’s choice grounder in the first (-.069), where Travis Shaw made a nice play behind third base to nab Jacoby Ellsbury at the plate.

KEY MOMENT
See above: seriously, watch it again.

Another interesting moment came earlier in the seventh inning. Up to that point, David Price had labored through six—he hadn’t thrown too many pitches and only had one walk, but he’d given up eight hits, including a home run and a double to Alex Rodriguez. It seemed like a logical time to call it a night, although you could maybe argue that it made sense to leave Price in to start the seventh, facing back-to-back lefties to start the inning. Maybe.

John Farrell did one better, leaving Price in to not only face Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, who he successfully retired, but also—after a conference on the mound which might have made you curse at your TV—to face A-rod for a fourth time. Given what we know about the times-through-the-order penalty and platoon splits, that decision was almost certainly, by the numbers, a bad one.

Give Price credit—and Farrell, too, I suppose—for getting Rodriguez to ground out to Pedroia after a six-pitch battle, setting up the bottom of the inning for Vazquez’s heroics. Price had another rough outing overall and you’ll likely find a thinkpiece or three about him on the internet tomorrow, but it’s nice that he can still go seven innings even when he doesn’t have it, allowing Boston to bypass the middle of the ‘pen for Koji Uehara and Craig Kimbrel.

TREND TO WATCH
I realize Brett Cowett just wrote about it in Friday’s game recap, but Dustin Pedroia went to the opposite field in all five plate appearances last night, the first three of which all found grass. Per Brooks Baseball, Pedroia has been using the off-field far more frequently in 2016, particularly on soft stuff:

I can’t tell you what, exactly, this means, but Pedroia’s now hitting .324/.371/.491 so far this season, so I’m just going to shut up and enjoy it.

COMING NEXT
The Red Sox head to Chicago for a three-game set with the surprising 18-8 White Sox, where Steven Wright will square off with Jose Quintana in the series opener on Tuesday. Quintana is quietly building a case for the best non-ace pitcher in the majors, as he’s posted a 3.37 career FIP while delivering a quality start in nine of the last 10 outings going back to 2015. Over the weekend, the Red Sox will travel to the Bronx for another three-gamer with the Yankees that will conclude on Sunday night.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Vazquez, as you surely know, is a tremendous defensive catcher. Since his return to Boston he’s shown that he’s lost little if any of the defensive chops he displayed during his rookie season in 2014. On Friday night he back-picked a runner at first base (arm, check) and on Saturday he made an excellent catch on a fouled bunt attempt by Kevin Pillar (reaction and instincts, check). In both starts he was behind the dish for good outings by Rick Porcello and David Price, as Boston’s pitching held the high-powered Blue Jays offense to just five runs in the first two games of the series.

None of this is to say that Swihart couldn’t have been back there for those outings (or made that catch or that throw), or that Vazquez is the missing ingredient that will turn Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly into Cy Young front-runners. It’s hard to deny that he’ll help, though, and on a team with major weaknesses in the starting rotation, it’s fair to look for any advantage possible in that area. If Vazquez can do enough defensively to turn this rotation from a net negative into something that can at least remain competent enough to let the rest of the team’s strengths—hitting, defense, relief pitching—shine through, he can hit like a poor man’s Madison Bumgarner and nobody will notice.

Swihart should remain in the organization’s long-term outlook, as there are obvious reasons why he was the one you were hearing about as a prospect. The dude can hit, and throwing a Jason Varitek-type comp on him isn’t crazy—and his defense is passable. But the Red Sox want to win now and there’s a decent argument to be made that Vazquez’s glove work outweighs the difference between Swihart and Vazquez at the plate, particularly on a team that’s full of offensive thump early in the order.

***

There are many facets to catcher defense, some of which we still don’t understand or can’t measure. One of the things we do understand, however, thanks to years of PITCHf/x research—much of it done right here at Baseball Prospectus—is that pitch framing is extremely important. A good pitch framer can save upwards of 20 or 30 (or more) runs over a poor one, and the most notable difference between Swihart and Vazquez defensively are their respective pitch framing abilities.   

It’s early in the 2016 season, of course, but in just three starts Vazquez already ranks ninth in the majors in Framing Runs. Swihart is off to a subpar start, his -0.006 CSAA about equal to the figure he put up in 2015. In short, in a full season Vazquez could add two or three wins over Swihart in pitch framing alone. But how? 

Vazquez is just soooo quiet back there, and he’s blessed with the ability—call it hand strength, call it barely perceptible hijinks—to ever-so-slightly coax pitches back toward the edges of the strike zone, at least in appearance. Vazquez presents pitches as strikes as well or better than anybody in baseball, whereas Swihart scores closer to average. The difference is easier to explain with pictures than words.

Here are two fastballs from David Price that end up in almost the same location—the one on the top (Swihart) is called a ball and the one on the bottom (Vazquez) is called a strike:

Note with Vazquez there’s very little movement. He subtly shifts his glove toward the strike zone after catching the ball, but it’s hardly noticeable. Swihart’s form, on the other hand, isn’t bad. There’s more movement than Vazquez and he stabs at the ball slightly, but he’s just going up against a guy who is in another class.

Here’s another pair of fastballs that miss the plate just outside:

Focus on the difference between Swihart’s and Vazquez’s head movement. Vazquez’s head doesn’t budge while Swihart’s—along with his body—shifts slightly outside with the pitch. Excessive head movement is a no-no for catchers, unless that catcher is trying to match Ryan Doumit for framing futility. 

Here are two high breaking pitches that both miss their intended location:

Notice again how Swihart’s glove, head, and body all dart up quickly with the pitch, almost like he’s surprised by it. That pitch looks high, even though PITCHf/x says it crossed the plate near the top of the zone, and you can see why the umpire abstained from a strike call. Vazquez moves as little as humanly possible to catch his pitch and he presents it as a perfectly reasonable strike.

Check out where Vazquez’s body is when that last pitch is being delivered compared to where it is when he catches it:

Did he move? I don’t think he moved.

***

One of the burdens of managing a talented roster is coping with the eventual logjams that crop up at certain positions, and making sure everyone gets a fair shot can become difficult if anticipated injuries or underperformance never transpire. This is a good burden to have, mind you.

Swihart and Vazquez both deserve to start on major-league teams, but for now the Red Sox are pulling a 180 and switching their two young catchers around, sending Swihart back to Pawtucket with apparent plans to have him take fly balls in left field. The hope is that they won’t damage Swihart’s development (or trade value), and that he’ll take to a more versatile role and be back with the big club when called upon—nobody ever said Swihart and Vazquez can’t coexist. Of course, it doesn’t always work out that way.

For now, the Red Sox will move forward with Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan at backstop, and the pitching staff will be out of excuses. Along with superior framing abilities, Vazquez possesses a top-notch arm, excellent all-around instincts and a command of the game you hear pitchers constantly raving about. It’s a puzzling early-season decision by Boston—what happened in two weeks to prompt such a dramatic change?—but it could be a lot worse. At least Swihart’s being exchanged for a good player, and if Sox pitching improves tenfold over the summer, it certainly won’t all be attributable to the work of the baseball gods.

Vazquez is really good back there.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Last Friday night, Kelly was building momentum. Through three innings in Toronto, facing the league’s most powerful offense in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, he’d recorded four strikeouts and allowed just one run. Go back further and Kelly had six solid starts in spring training, posting a 2.63 ERA with 22 strikeouts and eight walks. Go back even further and Kelly had a fine second half in 2015, notching a 3.77 ERA and a 2.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Then the fourth inning happened. Kelly faced six batters without recording an out, quickly erasing those positive feelings you were developing toward the righty. “Hey, this guy might be alright after all,” you were probably thinking, only to have your hopes dashed by a string of hard-hit singles, a hit-by-pitch, and a 387-foot Josh Donaldson exclamation point.

What went wrong with Kelly, as it often does, was his command—the stuff’s great, of course. Though the results were solid in innings one through three, much of his early success on Friday night could be classified as a mirage. Kelly threw a first pitch strike to nine of 14 batters in those innings, but during the 12 at-bats that went at least three pitches, he was ahead in the count (after pitch three) in just four of them. He was consistently falling behind against a good offense, and when that happens bad things are bound to happen. In the fourth inning, another bout of Kelly’s wildness caught up to him, as the Jays finally made him pay for missing his spots.

I examined Kelly’s outing on Friday night and classified each pitch into a bucket based on whether Kelly hit catcher Ryan Hanigan’s target or not—let’s call it command percentage.

Kelly started off with poor command and it trended downhill toward the end of his outing. In the third and fourth innings, Kelly hit his target just 22 percent of the time. In those two innings, just 15 percent of his fastballs went to Hanigan’s target. Without establishing the fastball early in the count, Kelly couldn’t stay ahead of hitters—and it’s not like his breaking pitches are of the get-me-over variety.

Whenever Hanigan called for a fastball up in zone, Kelly delivered one so far up that it served little purpose other than to put Toronto’s hitters in better counts—the up-and-in fastball that glazed off Kevin Pillar’s helmet being the most extreme example. Further, whenever Hanigan called for a slider down in the zone, Kelly threw a pitch so low that Jays hitters rarely offered at it, particularly when they were ahead in the count. In the end, Kelly’s struggle to get ahead in the count forced him more toward the heart of the plate, and that’s when Toronto did its damage.

The inevitable fourth inning hit parade provides a perfect example of Kelly’s downfall. Here’s a 2-0, 95 mph two-seam fastball to Russell Martin:

Hanigan wanted the pitch on the outside edge, but instead it leaked over the inner half allowing Martin to redirect it back at Kelley. Next up, here’s a first-pitch 96 mph two-seamer to the following batter, Ryan Goins:

Hanigan wants this fastball up, and he comes out of the crouch to exaggerate that desire. This time Kelly’s fastball ends up belt high and out over the plate, and Goins promptly rips it into center field to load the bases. After falling behind 2-0 with two sliders to the next batter, Darwin Barney, here’s what happened on pitch No. 3:

Hey, look, it’s a carbon copy of the first image. Again, Hanigan is set up on the outside edge of the plate, and again Kelly’s two-seamer ends up on the inner half, right in Barney’s wheelhouse, to the extent that Barney has a wheelhouse. We could go on, of course, and we will. Just one more.

Perhaps the most amusing (or disheartening) example of Kelly’s lack of command came in the third inning against Edwin Encarnacion, where Hanigan set up in the same spot—I mean, pretty much exactly the same spot—for six straight fastballs. Kelly came close to hitting the glove once:

The cluster of colored dots around Hanigan’s glove represent the approximate area where he set up on each pitch of the at-bat, and the dots of corresponding colors scattered all over represent the approximate area where each pitch ended up. On Kelly’s sixth and final try against Encarnacion (the white dots) he finally entered the vicinity of Hanigan’s target, but the rest of his efforts all missed by significant margins, one high and four others low and/or inside. He was probably lucky to escape with a walk.

Kelly’s maddening because he throws hard and—all joking aside—appears to have solid stuff. It’s just that most of the time he doesn’t have the ability to execute any type of consistent game plan. When the stuff is on, the command is off. When the stuff is off, forget it. There’s still hope Kelly can improve because he’s relatively young and he’s put up solid results in the past, but each passing disastrous start adds to a mounting pile of evidence that says maybe he just isn’t going to put it all together.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Acquired from the Rangers in January for one-time top-100 prospect Anthony Ranaudo, Robbie Ross cemented a place in the middle of Boston’s bullpen in 2015. There’s nothing exceptional about him—he owns a low-90s fastball and a 104 career cFIP—but he bounced back nicely from an ugly 2014 campaign and he gets righties and lefties out with equal effectiveness. All told, he’s durable enough to serve as a longman and good enough to take on the occasional high-leverage situation without making you change the channel. For the 2015 Red Sox, he qualified as a bright spot.

What Went Right in 2015

Ross avoided the starting rotation, a gig he probably isn’t cut out for. The Rangers tried him in the rotation at the start of 2014 and, after three solid starts, Ross posted a 7.76 ERA over his next five tries. The Rangers promptly shipped him back to the ‘pen, save for three starts later in the season, and the results immediately . . . well, they stunk too, as Ross racked up an even uglier 7.85 ERA and 1.50 K:BB ratio in 18 and 1/3 innings of relief work.

The Red Sox aren’t a team to get hung up on small-sample performance, so they gambled that Ross would turn it around given another 50 or 60 innings back in the ‘pen. They were mostly right: last season both Ross’ BABIP (.351 to .296) and his LOB percentage (58.9 percent to 74.8 percent) returned to the land of normalcy, and his ERA also took a sharp turn in the right direction, down from 6.20 to 3.86.

But Ross’ 2015 was due to more than just positive regression; he also regained a couple ticks in velocity (Brooks Baseball):

In 2014, Ross’ fastball velocity was predictably down as a starter, but it remained similarly low even after he switched back to relieving. In fact, out of his 17 relief appearances in ’14, Ross posted an average fastball velocity of under 92 mph in 71 percent of them. Flash forward to 2015 and that number dipped to 3.3 percent while his average heater reached 94 mph in September. The jump in velocity also helped Ross’ offspeed stuff, as his slider induced ground balls at a 72.2 percent clip and his slider and curve combined to allow a total of six extra-base hits in 364 pitches.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Despite the return to form, Ross remains a store brand variety middle reliever—he’s fine and all, but if you’ve got a few spare bucks lying around, you’d rather splurge for the Cheerios. Last season, among pitchers with at least 30 innings, both Ross’ DRA and cFIP ranked right around 200th in the majors (out of 439 pitchers), and that includes starters.

And while his ability to handle righties with some effectiveness makes him more than your typical LOOGY, his struggles—given his handedness—against lefties makes him someone you don’t necessarily trust against Chris Davis in a late-and-close situation.

Beyond that, though, there really wasn’t much that went wrong in 2015. You’d like a few less home runs and a few more strikeouts, but 2015 Robbie Ross is probably a decent representation of who this guy is. And gosh darnit, Great Value Toasted Whole-Grain Oats ain’t bad.

Outlook for 2016

Ross apparently entered once too often in the eighth inning of a one-run game last season, so the Red Sox doubled down on relief pitchers this offseason, acquiring Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith and effectively banishing Ross to a role more suited to a reliever of his ilk.

Suddenly the bullpen’s a crowded place, with Kimbrel and Smith joining Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa as late inning options while a group of southpaws like Tommy Layne, Roenis Elias and Ross left to sort themselves out for lower-leverage work. If all goes as planned, Ross should find himself in a less prominent bullpen slot in 2016, and that’s a good thing for all parties involved.

Photo by Rick Ostentoski/USA Today Sports Images

When Christian Vazquez was called up in July of 2014, he was billed as a defense-first catcher with an iffy bat, and—voila—that’s what he was. It’s just that nobody quite knew that “defense-first catcher” meant that Vazquez, then a 23-year-old rookie, would throw out 52 percent of would-be base stealers, post near league-leading per-pitch framing numbers and handle the staff like a 10-year vet. Even the bat showed signs of life—19 walks and 33 strikeouts in 201 plate appearances ain’t all that bad, and there were hints of gap power underneath an unpolished exterior.

The catcher position was Vazquez’s to lose heading into 2015, even after Boston shipped Will Middlebrooks to San Diego for real-life veteran Ryan Hanigan over the winter. Then, just before the season started, the bad news broke: Tommy John surgery. Catching duties were reassigned to Hanigan and Sandy Leon, but Hanigan got injured and Leon stunk, so Blake Swihart was prematurely called up in early May. In the end, the Red Sox were left scrambling at a position they once felt good about, and Vazquez got started on his long road back to the majors.

What Went Right in 2015

It’s easy to say nothing, but consider the good side of bad:

1. The surgery went well.

2. Vazquez got to take a break from the tolls of catching at an age when most backstops are logging significant innings. Consider Vazquez’s games caught tallies since he entered pro ball in 2008:

*Includes fall ball and winter leagues
(source: Baseball Reference)

It’s not entirely clear that missing a season during one’s peak is a good thing overall—shoot, it probably isn’t—but it’s certainly possible that the rest will do Vazquez plenty of good long-term, especially since catchers are known for rapid decline phases and, when used too frequently in a season, nose-diving performance. Best-case scenario Vazquez comes back rejuvenated from not having to catch 100-plus games in a season, and also with a functional right arm and an improving bat.

3. Red Sox catchers hit a combined .249/.311/.336 last season, and their collective work behind the plate left plenty to be desired, at least compared to Vazquez. Swihart steadily improved with the bat, but his OPS still barely cracked .700, and his defensive chops are just passable at this point. Hanigan posted the second-worst TAv of his career while his framing numbers dipped closer to league average—he also turned 35 in August and missed significant time last year due to a fractured finger. Leon did his best Leon impression, which includes a rocket arm and an invisible bat. In other words, nobody turned Vazquez into an afterthought.

What Went Wrong in 2015

Well, that whole Tommy John thing. As Bryan Grosnick wrote about back in April, the list of catchers who have underwent TJ surgery doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a hiccup-free return. There’s always the risk that Vazquez’s arm is never the same, or worse, that he has to undergo a second surgery or switch positions. On the positive side, it’s tough to find TJ comps for Vazquez, who’s both young and owns tremendous arm strength. Even if the arm never returns to 2014 form, Vazquez might retain enough pop to keep the running game in check while remaining a plus in other defensive departments.

Perhaps just as concerning as the condition of Vazquez’s right elbow, however, is the lost developmental time, particularly since he possesses major question marks surrounding his offensive profile. If Vazquez is going to move beyond Jose Molina on the Molina Brothers Catching Barometer, he’s going to have to hit. Vazquez’s bat has been bereft of home run power since a 2011 power spike in Single-A Greenville, and it’s unclear whether he’ll get on base enough to make up for low ISOs. He posted a .239 TAv in his big-league debut, and while a run at league-average offense (or better) for the position isn’t out of the question, a lost year facing live pitching likely stunts his growth a few ticks.

Outlook for 2016

Vazquez is back on the field, having already picked up 26 plate appearances in winter ball, exclusively as a designated hitter. There’s a shot he’s ready to go by the start of the season, but there’s probably an equal shot he isn’t, and either way the Red Sox might opt to send him to Pawtucket for a month or two depending on how spring training goes. Boston has to figure out what it wants to do at catcher, too, with Vazquez, Swihart, and Hanigan all viable options. A trade is possible, but the organization seems rightfully high on Swihart and dealing Vazquez now would be selling at a low point. Hanigan, who’s owed $3.7 million in 2016 (with a ’17 club option), could eventually become the odd-man out, but right now he serves as needed insurance given Vazquez’s uncertain timetable.

If everything goes as planned, Vazquez should remain an important part of Boston’s long-term plans. Even if Swihart has surpassed him on the organizational depth chart, Vazquez brings a defensive profile that’s a rarity even at the big-league level, and his bat provides enough promise to dream on.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Despite the loss, the Red Sox grabbed the honors here with Mookie Betts’ 5th-inning single (+.124), which scored Deven Marrero from second and left Boston with runners on first and second with one down. C.C. Sabathia got out of that jam unscathed, however, getting Jackie Bradley Jr. to ground out and Travis Shaw to fly out — with a Xander Bogaerts intentional pass mixed in between — to preserve the 2-1 lead.

New York’s top two plays were both solo home runs: A Carlos Beltran homer (+.117) off Rich Hill in the second and a Greg Bird round-tripper (+.106) off Jean Machi in the seventh.

Bottom Play (WPA): Shaw’s fly-out to center (-.107), the one we just mentioned, cost the Red Sox a chance to break things open in the fifth, an inning that would be Sabathia’s last. Instead, Sabathia threw a 2-1 slider down in the zone to Shaw, who popped it up harmlessly into right-center.

Key Moment: Ohh, those sacrifice bunts. When they work, they often don’t do much to increase your team’s win probability, but at least they don’t significantly hurt it either. Plus, as MGL would tell you, a perfectly placed sac bunt attempt has the chance to turn into a clean hit or an error, which is all the better. There’s also the opposite end of the spectrum.

In the fifth inning, the Red Sox asked Josh Rutledge to get down a sac bunt following back-to-back singles by Marrero and Sandy Leon to lead off the inning. Rutledge took a couple of balls, fouled off one bunt attempt, then, on the the fourth pitch of the at-bat, he awkwardly lunged at an 89 mile-per-hour fastball down in the zone from Sabathia and popped it straight up to the catcher.

Rutledge, who has posted an 83 OPS+ in over 1,000 major league innings, should know how to get down a bunt. He’s okay with the the bat for a versatile middle infielder, but his best shot at sticking in the bigs for a while probably involves him being a guy who does The Little Things well, and there’s really no excuse to go for that reckless of a bunt attempt in a key situation.

Trends to Watch: Keep an eye on Rutledge’s batting practice bunting regimen. Alright, just kidding. The default here is always the young guys. Betts had another two-hit night, and he narrowly missed hitting a two-run home that would have given the Red Sox the lead in the seventh. Bogaerts and Bradley went hitless on the night, but they did combine for three walks. Rusney Castillo also logged an 0-for, but he uncorked a strike throw early in the game that let you know why he’s a right fielder.

There’s also Rich Hill, who, barring a 22-inning marathon in Cleveland, won’t pitch again this season. He had a sensational, improbable, (insert-superlative-of-choice-here) four-start run with the Red Sox down the stretch, and he capped it off with another gem last night. Hill struggled early, losing his control at times and failing to put away Yankees hitters. For instance, he threw 37 pitches in the second and nine alone to John Ryan Murphy, who fouled off three consecutive curve balls before drawing a walk. Hill settled down after the second, however, and fittingly ended his outing (and season) with a three strikeout sixth inning, where he got A-Rod, Carlos Beltran, and Chris Young in order.

It’s unclear where Hill, a free agent, will end up next year. You’d have to think the Red Sox would like to bring him back, but a 7.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, even in just 29 innings, will likely do wonders for Hill’s popularity around the league.

Coming Next: Cleveland, and that’s it. For a team with such high expectations, one that was expected to compete for a division title — heck, a World Series title — it’s been an oddly entertaining season, at least of late, despite the losing record. From Hill to Betts to Bogaerts (to Orsillo and Remy, as always), to almost sweeping the Yankees on the road while postponing their playoff celebration, it’s been fun. Here’s to more winning in 2016.

Photo by Jeff Griffith/USA Today Sports Images

Top Play (WPA): Wade Miley’s rapid-fire assault on the strike zone worked masterfully though five innings. Then the sixth inning happened. The biggest play, WPA-wise, was Asdrubal Cabrera’s game-tying double (.187). Previously in the inning, Miley recorded two quick outs before throwing an 89 mile-per-hour fastball down the middle of the plate, a pitch Evan Longoria vaporized somewhere in the direction of the Monster (+.111). There was also a go-ahead double from Steven Souza Jr. (+.174) and, later, a seventh-inning homer from Kevin Kiermaier (+.124) mixed in. All told, Miley gave up seven extra-base hits, five of which came in the sixth or seventh frames.

The Red Sox’s biggest play of the game, not surprisingly, was David Ortiz’s first-inning blast, a two-run shot that landed in the Monster seats. Ortiz’s OPS+ has dropped every year since 2012, but he started at 173 and he’s at 134 this year, so everything’s a-okay at the DH slot.

Bottom Play (WPA): Speaking of Big Papi, Ortiz’s game-ending double play (-.101) ran away with negative WPA honors, nearly doubling a Souza Jr. second inning ground out (-.056).

Key Moment: Oh, I don’t know, let’s say the sixth inning as a whole. Miley, who worked through the first five innings like he was late to a game of high-stakes bingo, lost whatever he had going with two down in the sixth. After retiring 13 of 14, Miley dealt Longoria a first pitch, get-me-ahead heater, and Longoria didn’t miss it. Okay, that happens. Logan Forsythe followed with a single down the left field line, then Cabrera and Souza followed with back-to-back doubles. That happens, too, unfortunately.

What went wrong with Miley? Maybe the answer’s out there, somewhere in the video footage or the PITCHf/x files, but perhaps it’s simpler than that. Maybe the Rays just got to him, after five innings of just missing pitches or failing to string together rallies, they stopped missing and strung together a rally. Miley’s solid outing went sour in a hurry. That happens.

Trend to Watch: This space is usually reserved for on-field trends, but I’d like to make an exception to write a few words about Don Orsillo. Unless NESN has a sudden change of heart (wait, what heart?), Orsillo only has a handful of games left to call as the Red Sox play-by-play guy, a gig he’s handled in (mostly) full-time capacity since 2001. Orsillo’s greatest strength is/was his wonderful ability to mesh seriousness and fun, as he, along with partner Jerry Remy, have been able to successfully toggle that switch on and off given the situation.

Back when I was watching the Red Sox on the Extra Innings package in the early 2000s, every once in a while the audio feed would stay live during a commercial break, and my ears would suddenly perk up for some hot, juicy behind-the-scenes commentary. Usually all I’d hear was Orsillo and Remy still laughing, often hysterically, about whichever thing they were carrying on about from the previous half inning. Orsillo (and Remy) has made the game more fun for the past 15 years, and he seemed to genuinely enjoy doing it.

Go ahead and enjoy Orsillo’s final days in the booth; there’s bound to be a good bit of laughter, maybe some tears, and the usual helping of good, old-fashioned play-by-play craftsmanship. It’ll be missed.

Coming Next: The Red Sox finish up the 2015 home slate with three games against the Orioles starting on Friday night, a matchup that features a pair of lefties in Rich Hill and Wei-Yin Chen. Hill was a once-promising starter with the Cubs back in 2007, but he’s thrown just 167 innings since, thanks in large part to near ceaseless trips to the operating table and, when healthy, bouts of extreme wildness. He’s found surprising (small sample) success this year in Boston, striking out 20 and walking just one in two starts and 14 innings.

After the O’s series, the Red Sox look to play spoiler in the season’s final week, as they travel to New York and Cleveland.

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Top Play (WPA): Shaw’s homer, like, by a lot. Shaw’s two-run, go-ahead shot (+.400) was worth more positive WPA than the next nine plays combined. The Red Sox first basemen took a first-pitch 97 mile-per-hour fastball, well located low and inside, and redirected it towards its eventual landing spot 400-some feet away in the right field bleachers. Here, watch it again.

It’s tough to get a read on Shaw’s long-term fit in Boston. His minor-league performance doesn’t really jump out at you — he struggled in Double-A as a 23-year-old in 2013, and he didn’t exactly fare much better in parts of two seasons in Triple-A Pawtucket over the last two years. So far in the big leagues, however, it’s been a different story, as Shaw has posted a shiny .312/.356/.591 slash line in 101 plate appearances. The numbers will eventually come back to earth, but who knows, maybe he’s Brian Daubach Version 2.0.

Bottom Play (WPA): The White Sox had good scoring chances in both the fifth and sixth innings, but Porcello worked out of both jams unscathed. In the fifth, with one out and runners on the corners, Tyler Flowers flied out to shallow right field (-.089), failing to drive in the runner. In the sixth, with two outs and runners at second and third, Porcello got Adam LaRoche to fly out to center field (-.087), preserving the shutout.

Chris Sale also worked out of a number of jams. In the second inning, the Red Sox loaded the bases for Hanley Ramirez with two down. Sale worked Ramirez up and away with hard stuff all night, and in this at-bat, he got Hanley to swing through a 1-2 fastball to end the inning.

Key Moment: The real winner here is Shaw’s home run, but we already discussed that. In the bottom of the fifth, the White Sox had runners on the corners with two outs. Porcello induced a weak grounder off the bat of Tyler Saladino toward the hole between first and second, and Josh Rutledge, picked up in the Shane Victorino trade, made an outstanding barehanded flip to get the out. Rutledge was shading Saladino toward second base, too, which meant he had to run a long way just to get to the ball. Dustin Pedroia would be proud. Give credit to Shaw, as well, for realizing that his best move was heading to first base rather than trying to field the grounder.

Trend to Watch: The likely tinkering the Red Sox did with Porcello during his absence seemed to work. According to Brooks Baseball, Porcello upped his sinker usage from 34 percent during his previous 2015 starts to 46 percent last night. He also peppered the lower regions of the strike zone, particularly with his sinker, as you can see here. Whatever Porcello was trying to do earlier in the season — throw more four-seamers and get more strikeouts, it seemed — wasn’t working. Perhaps he just functions optimally as low-strikeout, high-groundball kind of guy, and even if that accompanies a high-threes/low-fours ERA, it sure beats the iteration of Porcello we saw from April through July.

Of course, it’s only one start. Porcello threw seven solid innings against the Tigers on July 24th, just five days before he allowed 10 hits in two innings against the White Sox in his final start before hitting the disabled list. Everything might not be fixed yet, but one good start is better than one bad one. There’s hope here.

Coming Next: The Red Sox get Thursday off before meeting the unstoppable force that is the New York Mets on Friday night. The Mets have won six straight, outscoring their opponents 64 to 35 during that stretch. Yeah, the Mets. They’re gonna be tough. Boston will get Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard in the three-game weekend series. On Monday the Red Sox return to Fenway for a three-gamer against that other New York team.

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An important part of the World Series–winning 2013 squad, Victorino had been rendered ineffective by injuries and made expendable in the last year of his three-year, $39 million deal with Boston. He’s played just 63 games since the start of 2014, hitting .258/.312/.346 between all-too-frequent stops on the disabled list. His star had fallen so much that the Red Sox sent $3.8 million along with him to the Angels to get back Josh Rutledge, a 26-year-old infielder without a true position who has been dealt twice in the last eight months.

Read the complete article here on Baseball Prospectus

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