The Red Sox are nine games into the 2017 campaign, and generally look pretty good. Sitting at 5-4 and having been dealt some somewhat surprising performances, bad luck, and a fair share of germs, the team looks to steady itself in a weekend series at Fenway against the Rays. There obviously is not too much material to dig deep into this early into the season, so let’s take a gander around the roster and see what’s gone well and what could go better.

Check out these catchers!

Much virtual ink was spilled over the offseason over the catcher spot in the Sox lineup, including on these webpages and by yours truly. Can Christian Vazquez do anything other than throw? Just how fluky was Sandy Leon’s 2016? Well, we’re just over a week in and the two have collaborated to make the position the team’s most valuable thus far. They have combined to go 13-for-31 with a homer, a triple (!) and four doubles. Vazquez made his first out of the season on Thursday, and somehow has a stolen base to his credit. (Can someone please explain how and when this happened?) Alex Speier wrote about their offensive successes in the Globe on Wednesday. And, I haven’t even mentioned the fact that they cannot be run upon. Seven runners have attempted to steal, and just one has been successful. And while much has been made of Vazquez’s arm in particular, the both can throw. I have the gifs to prove it:

(And how about this tag from Pedroia?)

The bullpen has been … kinda good?

Red Sox fans should by no means be comfortable with the stable of arms lurking between starting pitchers and Craig Kimbrel. Heck, maybe we shouldn’t even be comfortable with Craig Kimbrel. But thus far, everybody out there has done a solid job. It hasn’t always been easy or pretty to watch, but in 26 innings of work the ‘pen has allowed seven earned runs and struck out 11. The group has earned a 2.46 ERA and 1.077 WHIP. Special shoutout to Matt Barnes, who has appeared in five games and thrown 5.2 scoreless frames, striking out seven. On this domain a couple days ago, Brett Cowett dove into greater depth on the bullpen and the generally decent job John Farrell has done managing it in the early going.

Mitch Moreland can’t stop hitting doubles

Seriously, Mitch Moreland can’t stop hitting doubles. He has eight in nine games, and has a two-bagger in each of his last seven contests. He is hitting .324. That’s all I have to say about that.

Everyone got sick

You’ve read about the flu by now. Fortunately, it seems the worst is behind the squad, and those who missed time over the season’s first weekend in Detroit have returned to the lineup this week at Fenway, notably Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts. Nick Cafardo of the Globe wrote about the illness plaguing the team and some interesting data about the financial cost of missed games. Aside from the two middle-of-the-order bombers, the bug has at various points since spring training hit Brock Holt, Moreland, Robbie Ross Jr. and Joe Kelly.

Also, both Barnes and Xander Bogaerts missed time over the weekend on bereavement leaves after suffering deaths in their respective families. On top of that, Jackie Bradley Jr. went to the DL with an ankle sprain, Tyler Thornburg started the season there and Carson Smith has a return date TBD from last year’s Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox played with their preferred lineup literally only on Opening Day before various afflictions forced players to miss time.

Oh, and a $30 million pitcher is on the disabled list with elbow issues.

Speaking of David Price …

The lefty is rightfully being treated with caution as he works his arm strength and comfort back up following a five-alarm Tommy John scare. As Jen McCaffrey of MassLive reports, Price completed his second bullpen session Wednesday and is schedule to make a third on Saturday in Boston. He also could face live batters in a simulated game next week. His whole recovery process is like tip-toeing across creaky thin ice while trying to construct a house of cards and trying not to wake up your parents. It feels precarious and dangerous is what I’m saying here.

The knuckleball hasn’t been knuckling

Steven Wright’s start on Wednesday, um, could have gone better. He got four outs. He gave up four home runs. He gave up eight runs. So, yeah, after an All-Star first half of 2016 and an injury-derailed second, Wright’s season hasn’t gotten off to the smoothest of starts. Old friend Matt Collins at Over the Monster writes that it’s no time for panicking about Wright and that, if all the Sox need him to be is a mid- to back-of-the-rotation starter, the team should be fine.

David Ortiz isn’t on the Red Sox

Chris Sale is on the Red Sox

This is gonna be fun.

Looks like Chris Sale’s slider is still as good as ever in Fenway Park. This crossed the entire plate and still landed outside the zone. pic.twitter.com/HcV4OyY3tX

— Pitcher List (@ThePitcherList) April 6, 2017

Photo by Rick Osentoski – USA TODAY Sports

Pablo Sandoval

The variance of possible Pablo Sandoval outcomes this season is about as wide as, well, 2015 Pablo Sandoval. Perhaps the trimmer Panda will have a Boston resurgence a la John Lackey or Hanley Ramirez, and win back the hearts and minds of the Fenway Faithful in the process. Something like .280/.330/.410 would certainly endear the third-baseman to the city of Boston, especially following the first two seasons of his deal. Of course, it’s entirely possible such an improvement does not come to pass. The miserable 2015 season could repeat itself and Sandoval could once again be an albatross, weighing down (ahem) the everyday lineup. The thing is, though, I don’t think it’d matter that much. Here’s a look at his 2015 numbers and last year’s production from Sox third basemen.

Apologies to all current and former mayors of Ding Dong City, but third base generally stunk in 2016. And guess what? The team still had the best offense in baseball. The worst possible version of Sandoval could reappear, and, yes, he’d be an easy punching bag, but it still wouldn’t be a marked drop-off from a year ago. If he’s bad, Sandoval will bear the brunt of criticism and bad jokes (the latter of which I’ve gotten the ball rolling on here), but he won’t be the true source of any Red Sox woes.

Catcher

This one’s quick. Despite a month long stretch in which Johnny Bench Freaky Friday’d into Sandy Leon’s body, there really wasn’t much offensive production coming from behind the plate over the course of the season. Much like third base, even if there’s not a lot of production, it won’t be a steep fall from last season’s baseline. Brett Cowett broke down the modest expectations for the position in much greater detail, noting that Blake Swihart could well get called up to Fenway if he produces offensively at Pawtucket early in the year.

Back of the rotation

This is where things get a little more interesting, especially given the news that David Price will start the season on the disabled list. In the event he misses any significant time, the rotation will lack much dependable depth. Sale and Rick Porcello make the five-some strong at the top even minus Price, but the back end gets a little foggy. I am wildly bullish on Eduardo Rodriguez and will repeat my favorite statistical nugget from last season once more: in 14 starts after fixing his pitch-tipping problem, Eddie tossed 77.2 innings and earned a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. And he’s still 23! He’ll be fine. Beyond that, who knows.

Lefty Drew Pomeranz (a.k.a. Not Anderson Espinoza) will be in the opening day rotation, as will All-Star Steven Wright. Pomeranz was moved to the bullpen late last season and did not inspire much confidence as a starter after being acquired, and Wright is cursed by being a knuckleballer whose success will perpetually be viewed as volatile and unsustainable. If there is any further trouble beyond the opening day five, everyone should duck for cover, as Cam Ellis laid out last week. Again, the starters all have the ability to perform well — both were All-Stars in 2016. But if the team faces turbulence or disappoints, it wouldn’t be shocking if this was a source.

Two-thirds of the outfield

Look, I love these guys. I love #WinDanceRepeat. Jackie Bradley Jr. is the best defensive centerfielder I’ve ever watched on a daily basis. Andrew Benintendi has all the makings of a great corner outfielder and the hair to match. But their offensive prowess is not carved into stone. Heaping top-of-the-order expectations on a youngster with rookie eligibility is not guaranteed to work out right away. Xander Bogaerts went from starting the World Series in 2013 to struggling mightily the following year. This is not an analytical exercise so much as one looking for gaps between expectations and worst-reasonably-possible-outcome. Sheerly by virtue of being a prospect without an MLB track record, Beni’s range of plausible outcomes is significantly wider than most.

And I hardly need to reiterate that Bradley has been the victim (and beneficiary) of streaky offensive performances, never quite putting it together until the first half of last season. Even still, he hit just .216/.303/.387 in August and September. If these guys don’t quite live up to their lofty ceilings, the 878-run offense of 2016 will be a distant memory.

Thus concludes this week’s edition of Wet Blanket: An Attempt To Depress The Fanbase And Lower Expectations. I happen to think the outfield is great in three out of three spots. Any Bradley slumps will be made up for by continued defensive wizardry, and I do think Benintendi will be able to hit right away. But it’s worth remembering not to take 90-plus wins for granted, and to acknowledge where the shortcomings may lie if the team winds up disappointing.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

Is everyone ready for some storylines? How about an extra serving of narratives? Would you like some more updates or projections to go along with that? It’s Spring Training time, and this is what we’ll be reading and talking about for almost two months. There will be a whole lot of appetizers, and the entrée won’t be served until April 3 at Fenway against the Pirates (that’s a strange Opening Day, I know).

While fans will no doubt tire of the analysis and reporting being done absent meaningful games, have hope! Spring is on its way! There shall soon be baseball again. If you need proof, look no further than the media members gloating about the weather in Fort Myers and tweeting videos of Dustin Pedroia playing catch in shorts. If you’re looking for a primer for angles sure to be repeated ad nauseum, check out Cam Ellis’ fun piece on stories you’ll grow to hate.

Not all position players have reported to camp yet, so any questions regarding competition for roster spots have yet to be answered. One such battle is at catcher, where the Sox are armed with the interesting trio of Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart. As Christopher Smith writes for MassLive, it’s possible for Swihart to have the best camp of the three and still end up in Pawtucket to start the year; Vazquez and Leon have no minor league options left while Swihart does.

Leon was a great story a year ago but cooled off down the stretch and can’t be expected to continue to hit at such a ridiculous level. Vazquez, unfortunately, doesn’t seem like he can be expected to hit the baseball, period. If I had my druthers, Swihart would be given the opportunity to work out his defensive imperfections behind the plate while showcasing his still-impressive bat in the lineup. There are far worse problems to have than three viable catchers.

Another medium-sized question facing the team entering camp is I Don’t Know on third base. That’s both an Abbott and Costello joke and a legitimate unknown. Is Pablo Sandoval truly in the Best Shape of His Life, and does that help? Does All-Star Brock Holt make a triumphant return to the everyday lineup?

In the longer run, there’s some reason for excitement at the hot corner in the form of Rafael Devers. Matt Collins assembled numerous prospect rankings at Over the Monster, and Devers’ average slot is 13.6.  BP, for example, has the third baseman ranked the 13th best prospect in the game. The great Alex Speier wrote a feature on the youngster from Fort Myers, where Devers is training at the big league camp this spring. While Dave Dombrowski may seem to deal prospects with reckless abandon, the team was unwilling to part with Devers when the White Sox requested he be involved in the Chris Sale trade. Devers will likely start the year at Double-A Portland and is some time away from Fenway, but he may well be the third baseman of the future.

Speaking of the Chris Sale trade, Chris Sale is on the Red Sox. Frequent reminders of this fact are generally good for my mood. This year’s pitching staff lines up as the inverse of 2015’s “he’s the ace” rotation; this time the pitchers are, you know, actually good. To their credit, the starters understand the expectations facing the team, as Greg Lacques writes for USA Today. Jen McCaffrey of MassLive asked the starters who should start on Opening Day, and Sale and David Price both pointed at the man boasting last year’s Cy Young, Rick Porcello.

Behind those three, the rotation gets a little blurrier, not aided by the fact that the three men competing for two starting roles are all recovering from injury. As John Tomase of WEEI.com reports, Eduardo Rodriguez threw his first bullpen on Wednesday, and both Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright will soon be ready to throw from the mound.

As with Swihart, Rodriguez has options remaining on his contract and therefore might be most likely to not be with the club on Opening Day. While this makes sense, again, my preference would be to have the young lefty in the rotation. Last season, after returning from Pawtucket and sorting out his pitch-tipping problem, Rodriguez was genuinely good. In 14 starts after July 16, Eddie had a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 77.2 innings. Opponents had an OPS of just .613 in those starts. And he won’t turn 24 until April. Eduardo Rodriguez is going to be good, and I will continue shouting these stats from the rooftops until he has a spot in the rotation.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

As football season shifts to baseball and the first pictures from Fort Myers trickle in, we start reading and thinking about the Red Sox. Given the extra time Boston fans have to commit to the Sox this week, new opinions and points of analysis can take hold within Sox Nation. And, guys, I would like to throw my hat into the ring with a pretty hot take: I’m starting to think Rusney Castillo may not have been worth $72 million. Let’s call it a hunch and take a look back at his 2016 season.

What went right in 2016

The best things that happened to Rusney Castillo last season had nothing to do with Rusney Castillo. It was the fact that the Red Sox won 93 games. It was Mookie Betts smashing his way to a second-place MVP showing. It was Jackie Bradley Jr. raking 26 homers and earning a .835 OPS. And it was Andrew Benintendi, with his hair and dance moves, making an immediate impact in Boston after being called up.

Rusney Castillo’s 2016 was good because no one was paying attention. The big-league squad was massively exciting, and all the outfielders (the real ones, I’m so sorry Blake Swihart) played well. There was no room to think about Rusney Castillo. If there had been … yikes.

What went wrong in 2016

In nine games with the major league team, Castillo made eight plate appearances, nabbing a pair of hits and striking out three times. He was inserted as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement six of those nine games, starting just twice.

Castillo spent most of his season at the triple-A level, where things just weren’t much better. He slashed .263/.309/.354/.664 in 103 games and just under 400 at-bats. He had just a pair of homers and 34 RBIs and stole nine bases. Pretty much everything went wrong and, at this point, Castillo appears to be nothing more than a middling Triple-A outfielder. Don’t shed a tear for him, though, he’s still getting capital-p Paid.

What to expect in 2017

Castillo arrived in Boston to massive hype at the tail end of a miserable 2014 season. Given an under-performing team, it was fun to latch onto the expectations of a $70-plus million investment in a player who appeared to hold huge talent. Unfortunately, two full seasons into the seven-year deal, none of that talent has shown itself on the big-league level. It’s sad, but if you’re expecting much out of Castillo in 2017, I wouldn’t hold your breath. The 2017 Red Sox are stacked with young players poised make an October run, and Rusney Castillo will likely not be a part of it.

Photo by Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports Images

No Red Sox player had a more complicated 2016 season than David Price. And no Red Sox had a more disappointing season than David Price. That might be more a testament to the overall performance of the roster than it is an indictment of Price himself, but it is true nonetheless. The lefty entered the season with a $217 million price tag and accompanying high expectations, and he failed to fully meet them. Contrary to the belief of some Sox fans and local radio hosts, Price wasn’t actually bad, or really anything close to it. But he was disappointing, and he needs to be better in 2017.

What went right in 2016

You don’t have to squint too hard or dig too deep to find stats that indicate Price had a great first season in Boston. Price was good for a 4.5 fWAR in 2016, the 12th-best in baseball among pitchers. His FIP of 3.60 was 17th-best in the game. He led the majors with 35 starts and 230 innings pitched while earning a 17-9 record. Price whiffed 228 hitters, placing him seventh in baseball. (One of the six pitchers ahead of him was new teammate Chris Sale; 2017 should be fun.)

Price rounded out the regular season well, going 7-1 in his last 10 starts with a 3.26 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. For the most part, the southpaw was very solid in 2016, but could never quite get beyond “very solid.”

What went wrong in 2016

If you’re making $30-plus million and “very solid” is your ceiling, you can plan on disappointing some people. Price finished with a 3.99 ERA, his highest since 2009 and a figure that he only pushed below 4 at the tail end of August. His 1.20 WHIP, too, was his highest since 2009, his first season as a starter. Price allowed a career-high 30 home runs, tying him for ninth in baseball in that unflattering category. Some rather concerning peripheral numbers plagued him as well: Price allowed 1.96 walks per nine innings, his highest number since 2012, while his 8.92 strikeouts per nine was down from his previous two campaigns. And his average fastball velocity of 92.9 was down more than mile per hour from his 2015 figure of 94.2.

All of these numbers indicate the following: his high ERA may paint an unfairly critical view of his season, but David Price in 2016 was not the pitcher the Red Sox paid him to be.

Thus far, we’ve only discussed regular season performance. Please hold while I put on noise-cancelling headphones to tune out the deafening roar of fans shouting about Price in the playoffs. Okay, deep breath, we can proceed. In Game 2 of the ALDS against the Indians, Price was terrible. He allowed six hits and a pair of walks for five runs in a 6-0 loss opposite Corey Kluber. Price lasted just 3.1 innings, his fewest in a playoff start in his career. As Price has repeatedly reminded himself and his followers on Twitter, he has never won a playoff game as a starter, now owning an ugly 0-8 record. So, on the plus side, at least he’s self-aware?

What to expect in 2017

Things will be better. After a year in Boston met with some adjustment pains, I expect Price to continue to be an innings-eating workhorse while striking out plenty and bringing his ERA back down to earth. He may not win a Cy Young (that’s Chris Sale’s job), but Price’s ERA should return to the mid-to-low 3s to better coincide with his FIP. Price remains one of the best lefties in the AL, even though only some of his numbers in 2016 reflected that. The prediction from this corner is that he’ll be the second starter on next year’s staff, the result both of a modest improvement on his part and slight regression from Rick Porcello.

As for the postseason, your guess is as good as mine. The 2017 Red Sox would be a massive disappointment if they missed the playoffs behind this rotation and core of young talent. David Price will likely take the mound next October, and it’ll be up to him to make it count and to change the narrative of his career.

Photo by Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports Images

2016, for a multitude of reasons and a wide variety of people, kinda sucked. Sandy Leon was not one of those people. A season that began with the coronation of Blake Swihart as an everyday catcher eventually saw the position fall into the hands of Leon as a result of injuries and institutional mismanagement. And while the year included Cy Young hardware dealt to Rick Porcello, there’s a case to be made that it was in fact Sandy Leon who was the most shockingly good member of the 2016 Red Sox.

Sandy’s 2016 was weird and honestly still doesn’t quite make sense, so let’s take a peek back at his role this past season and going forward.

What went right in 2016

Most things. Most things went right. Coming into the season, Leon had played a total of 75 Major League games in his career between 2012 and 2015. Those games had been, uh, uninspiring. Leon had one career dinger and – brace yourself for his slash line, please, you’ll thank me – a .187 career batting average. He had a .258 on-base and .225 slugging percentage. Safe to say expectations weren’t particularly high for the catcher as he entered his age-27 season.

But when Ryan Hanigan went down with an injury in early June, Leon got called up to the big league club. Christian Vazquez couldn’t hit his weight, and Blake Swihart, well, yeesh. All of that is to say that Sandy Leon got himself an opportunity, and he did not throw away his shot. (Yeah, I just quoted Hamilton, don’t @ me.)

In 78 games (again, more than in his entire career to this point) Sandy earned a .310/.369/.476 slash line, knocked seven homers and drove in 38 runs. Sprinkle in some stellar defense behind the plate and Leon was good for 2.5 fWAR.

The dude hit .390 in his first 40 games this year, with a slugging percentage over .600 and a 1.075 OPS. One way to describe Sandy Leon’s 2016 is Good. It was Good.

What went wrong in 2016

Not that much. Leon exceeded all possible expectations en route to a career year that, frankly, he is unlikely to repeat.

The catcher did turn into something of a pumpkin down the stretch, seemingly remembering that he is Sandy Leon and not Johnny Bench. In the month of September, he hit .213/.286/.253 in his final 23 games. The Sox went 16-7 in those games, though, so it didn’t quite matter. Leon’s offensive production was fun and impressive, but it was never pivotal; getting offense out of the catcher’s spot was a luxury, so even when Leon came back down to earth, it was hard to blame him.

What to expect in 2017

Oh, boy. Is it bad if the answer to this part is “I have no idea please leave me alone so I don’t have to make bad predictions?” The catcher’s spot in the Red Sox 2017 lineup seems like it’ll be filled by whomever Dave Dombrowski and John Farrell like in February and March. From all indications and reports surrounding the Chris Sale trade, Dombrowski had no interest in moving on from Swihart, or at least in selling low on him as he recovers from a tough injury.

A year removed from being surrounded by High-End Prospect Hype, it seems the best-case scenario for the Sox is for Swihart to start. Ideally, he’d play a sustainable defensive catcher while holding on to the high-end offensive skills that drew him such rave reviews climbing the farm system. But after being moved from behind the plate and tossed haphazardly into Fenway’s treacherous left field, who knows where Swihart is at? And, much as I love the rifle attached Christian Vazquez’s right shoulder, I have no confidence in his ability to hit at a level anywhere close to tolerable.

And there’s Leon, coming off an all-around great season that he is unlikely to repeat. However, he should be given a chance to try; 2016 wasn’t a fluke until he can’t replicate it. Working against Sandy’s chances is the fact that he posted an almost comical BABIP of .392, second-highest in the majors among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. After the Winter Meetings and the flurry of moves that accompanied them, the 2017 Red Sox roster has come into focus. We have a sense of who will platoon at DH and who will be stationed on the corners. The only position that seems truly blurry is behind the plate, and it’ll be a fun battle to watch come Spring Training.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

The hours after the news of the Sale trade broke on Tuesday were predictably filled with Takes, both hot and otherwise. Most of Red Sox Nation – myself included – is thrilled by the prospect of the current Cy Young holder as a number three starter. Remember when this was supposed to be a quiet offseason? It is clear now that a 6-foot-6 asterisk was attached to that proclamation in the shape of Chris Sale.

Much of the national media now has the Sox pegged as the odds-on favorite in the American League. Sports Illustrated and CBSSports’ Jonah Keri (RIP Grantland), opines that the move puts the team in the driver’s seat in the AL. Ben Lindbergh over at The Ringer agrees with his former co-worker. Most all fans and baseball analysts liked the trade for, really, both colors of Sox. Rob Bradford makes the case at WEEI.com that this was the biggest trade in recent Red Sox history. The closest to a negative reaction to the trade, from what I read, was this column by WEEI’s John Tomase fretting about Dave Dombrowski’s notable propensity to empty the prospect war chest in order to achieve the all-important Win Now. Even Tomase’s gripe is more with the totality of Dombrowski’s work, and he acknowledges the boon that is acquiring Chris Sale.

There is a clear and not-hard-to-decipher consensus that the trade makes the Red Sox demonstrably better heading into the 2017 season. And, considering the Nationals on Wednesday traded the White Sox arguably baseball’s top pitching prospect in Lucas Giolito for a guy with ‘Spanky’ in his Twitter handle, the price the Red Sox paid for Sale seems relatively reasonable.

Tuesday saw the Red Sox deal four of the nine top players in the farm system (including Luis Alexander Basabe in the move for Sale and Mauricio Dubon for reliever Tyler Thornburg), per SoxProspects.com. So in a way, Tomase is totally right: the cupboard looks pretty bare. Rafael Devers and 18-year-old Jason Groome are the two remaining genuinely promising (though you may be bullish on some others) players in the minor leagues.

That being said, let’s remember a significant reason for this truth: a lot of former prospects are performing at the Major League level! Andrew Benintendi looked ready to play an everyday role in left field in his limited and injury-interrupted audition late in 2016. Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t turn 24 until April and posted a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts after returning from Pawtucket in July. Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are All-Stars that just turned 24 in October. (Aside: my heart grew three sizes after realizing that Mookie and Xander were born six days apart as I imagined them throwing joint birthday parties. Anyways.)

All of this is to say that the Red Sox are young, are good right now, and just got better right now. As Ben Buchanan lays out for Over the Monster, this trade was the best way for the team to make a move for Sale if they were going to do so; no Jackie Bradley Jr. or Rodriguez or other major league talent was involved. They just took what was a 93-win team and added probably the best non-Clayton Kershaw lefty in the world. That feels pretty good.

Before all that craziness transpired, the Red Sox had made a trade with the Brewers for reliever Tyler Thornburg, who threw 67 innings last year for Milwaukee to the tune of a 2.15 ERA and .940 WHIP. Craig Kimbrel has a very talented new set-up man.

The more minor trade has an array of interesting consequences for the team going forward, both significant and trivial. For one, the trade included Travis Shaw, meaning Ding Dong City either a. needs a new mayor or b. is a mobile municipality of a kind heretofore unknown. Also, the Red Sox sent Mauricio Dubon to the Brewers, breaking the heart of colleague Matt Collins but perhaps more importantly allowing for this magnificent Twitter interaction to occur.

From a baseball standpoint, the combination of the two deals makes clear the team’s commitment to and faith in Pablo Sandoval playing third base next season. As Jason Mastrodonato reports in the Herald, Dombrowski thinks Sandoval is “ready to come back.” And Sandoval seems to be too. In fact, he might even be in the Best Shape Of His Life.

Check out the slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval https://t.co/v0YffLEA9G #RedSox pic.twitter.com/8s6AWWscc8

— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) December 7, 2016

As Alex Speier points out in the Globe, the hefty price for Thornburg reflects the incredibly high cost and value of relievers in today’s climate. Andrew Miller’s postseason messed with some peoples’ heads, apparently. Since Alex published his piece, the Cubs traded noted masher of baseballs and very promising talent Jorge Soler to the Royals for reliever Wade Davis. As I’m writing this, the Yankees just signed Aroldis Chapman for five years and $86 million. So, yeah. Go back in time and train yourself to be a set-up man.

Finally, the Thornburg acquisition closed the door on the possibility of Koji Uehara returning in 2017, Dombrowski said. This is not a shocking development but a sad one nonetheless. Thanks for the memories Koji, we’ll miss you and your logic-defying sinker.

Photo by USA Today Sports Images

We are in the prime time of predictions, as evidenced by our ongoing Offseason Oracle series here at BP Boston. For the most part, we can assume a lot of these predictions will be wrong. That’s just how it goes. On the Red Sox front, there is a predictably sizable amount of speculation over the team’s aggressiveness, both in the trade market and free agency.

Among the candidates for major awards, of course, are Mookie Betts and Rick Porcello. We know now that Porcello was able to walk away with his award, but what about Mookie? Let’s dive in on the diminutive outfielder.

We know that Mookie is one of three AL finalists for MVP, along with Jose Altuve and Mike Trout. Betts has already taken home a Silver Slugger to go with a Gold Glove and approximately 58 other miscellaneous awards I didn’t know to exist. As the best AL player to play in the postseason, Betts has a very solid chance to win the award. Bob Nightengale at USA Today wrote this feature advocating for Mookie to win, and Bleacher Report published a long profile on the young outfielder as well. The trouble with the MVP award in the American League, as has been the case for a number of years, is that Mike Trout plays like Mickey Mantle, and does so for a bad team.

Trout, objectively and statistically, was better at baseball in 2016 than was Betts. Baseball Prospectus’ WARP pegged Mookie as about a seven-win player this season, to Trout’s 8.7. The Angels outfielder posted a .355 TAv, outpacing Betts’ .296. Trout had a major-league-best wRC+ of 171, and trailed only David Ortiz with a .991 OPS.

All of this is not to say that Mookie Betts should not win; I sincerely hope he does, and I happen to hold the analytically sacrilegious belief that players on teams that suck shouldn’t win MVP. The last thing I want to do is re-litigate the impossibly annoying debate of what the word “valuable” really means.

In the context of Betts as an MVP candidate, Alex Speier of the Globe wrote a piece Tuesday about what an extension for Betts would look like, and the merits to signing one with years of team control still remaining on his contract. Speier hazards the guess, with the input of league executives at the GM meetings in Arizona, that a deal could be in the ballpark of $150 million over seven or eight years. One easy comparison is the deal Trout got in 2014, worth $144 million over six years. I firmly lie in the it’s-not-my-money camp regarding early extensions: I’d be heartbroken to see Betts (or, for that matter, Xander Bogaerts) in another uniform if a deal can’t be worked out before free agency.

While not entirely related to awards and contracts, reading about the terrific start to Mookie’s career reminded me of the hype and excitement that followed Betts into Spring Training in 2015. Remember that? Shane Victorino compared him to Andrew McCutchen, and Ortiz was even more effusive in his praise, saying “he’s better than McCutchen at that time in McCutchen’s career. Go and double-check that.”

As an optimist and a Sox fan, I was excited but remained skeptical. Coming into 2015, Cutch had been a top-three finisher for NL MVP in three consecutive years. We were really comparing Mookie to that guy? Already? It turned out they were correct.

In McCutchen’s first four seasons at the big-league level, he totaled 18.8 bWAR. In more than 200 fewer games and with almost 1000 fewer plate appearances than McCutchen’s four campaigns, Betts has amassed 17.6 bWAR in just two-and-a-half seasons.

In McCutchen’s MVP season of 2013, he slashed .317/.404/.508 while belting 21 homers, driving in 84 and swiping 27 bags. Mookie’s line this season was .318/.363/.534 with 31 home runs, 113 RBIs and 26 steals. Mookie’s bWAR in 2016 was 9.6, while McCutchen’s in 2013 was 8.1.

Mookie Betts, at age 23, was better in 2016 than Andrew McCutchen has ever been.

Hopefully this provides some perspective regardless of who wins MVP later this week. Mookie Betts is an incredible baseball player, and in all likelihood will continue to be for a long time.

Quick Hits

Porcello, stacked up against Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander, was a finalist for AL Cy Young, and we found out lat night that he did indeed earn the honor. Neil Greenberg of the Washington Post correctly predicted that Porcello will win the award, but argued that Verlander was most deserving. He argues that Verlander was more dominant, leading the league in both strikeouts and strikeouts per nine, than was Porcello, despite Porcello’s league-leading 22 wins. It almost seems too obvious to point out that – here, I’ll do it in all caps – PITCHING WINS ARE NOT AN EFFECTIVE STATISTIC. A case could be made that Porcello deserved to win the award anyway, thanks in large part to his majestic 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. What also worked in his favor, largely unfairly, is the fact that Boston made the postseason while Detroit did not.

Stan Grossfeld in the Globe wrote about the personal development of Michael Kopech. After a rough stretch that included a 50-game ban for a forbidden stimulant and then broke a bone in his pitching hand in an altercation with a teammate in March of 2016. Upon returning, Kopech torched the competition at Lowell and High-A Salem, posting a 4-1 record and 2.08 ERA and was named the Carolina League Player of the Month in August. You can read me fawn over Kopech’s fastball, performance and magnificent hair here.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports that the Red Sox haven’t made the signing of Edwin Encarnacion a top priority, and argues that they might want to rethink the strategy. However, because Encarnacion declined the $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Jays, any other team that signs the slugger would have to forfeit their first-round pick next year. For the Sox, that would mean the 26th overall selection.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

I’ve been around for 21 years, and David Ortiz has been a significant part of 13 of those. I am almost numb to the knowledge that his career is over, and the reason for that is obvious: I literally have never known a Red Sox team without him on it. I don’t know what that will look and feel like.

One of my oldest sports-related memories is staying awake for Game 5 against the Yankees in 2004 (I’m unsure if I’ll ever forgive my parents for making me go to sleep before the Dave Roberts steal the night before). Papi walked that one off with a single in the bottom of the 14th. One of my favorite Fenway experiences was attending a game on my birthday the following year, June 2, 2005. I was 10, and the Sox played the Orioles and trailed in the ninth. Ortiz hit a walkoff bomb. He hit it for me, I surmised.

A picture of Papi delivering his speech in April of 2013 after the Boston Marathon continues to adorn my computer’s background. He spoke for millions of people that day, and not a single one took issue with it. I was there when he clubbed a pair of homers off of David Price in the 2013 playoffs and admired the second one as it hooked around the Pesky pole, angering Price in the process. His heroics against Detroit and St. Louis in those playoffs carried the team and city to another title. The legacy left by Papi’s performance in 2013 alone could practically merit its own blockbuster movie.

Of course, everyone knows all this by now. We know the numbers and greatness and wins. It almost belittles David Ortiz to consider his career and legacy in purely baseball terms. What is perhaps the most remarkable thing about David Ortiz’s career is the longevity of his performance. I had trouble remembering Ortiz-specific moments in many of his seasons with the Red Sox because there are simply too many. There are hundreds of home runs and runs batted in and hilarious dugout interactions with teammates that blend together.

That is the extraordinary part of David Ortiz: he was always there. Always hitting homers.

As fans, we use sports to make memories and build internal associations. We harken back to a walkoff win because of the excitement it provides but also because it reminds us of what was happening in life at the time. I got let out of school early because I had tickets to the game, and they won!

I vividly remember the day of Game 4 against the Yankees in 2004, going to get ice cream with my dad. We were completely resigned to the fate of the team, but just didn’t want to get swept. Just win one, for pride’s sake. They got that one win, and seven more after that. I remember the way my mom peered at the TV from behind a wall, hardly able to watch Game 4 of the World Series a week later. I remember walking out of my dorm room and pacing the hallway, delirious and in disbelief, after Papi’s grand slam off of Benoit in 2013.

For me, and many other young Bostonians, David Ortiz represents a lifetime of those associations, a mainstay in the middle of the Red Sox lineup through so many stages of personal growth. He is the embodiment of a team and sport that have been monumentally important to me for as long as I can remember. And he was always the most important.

Ortiz was there when I got braces in seventh grade, there when I started high school in 2009. He was there as I went away to college and stayed when I transferred schools. And now, as I sit here a senior in college, searching for jobs and career opportunities beyond next May, Ortiz is gone. The end of his baseball career coincides with the end of my academic one. It is personally, in more ways than one, the end of an era.

The eulogizing of Ortiz’s career has already started and will continue for months to come. We will celebrate his numbers, the records he broke, and his place in the history of Boston sports. Ortiz will be heralded as the most important Red Sox of all time, the one constant through three championships and almost a decade and a half of great baseball.

All of that is wonderful and accurate, and his baseball value to the Red Sox is immense. But there’s a personal element to it that may be even more powerful. In the truest sense, Ortiz has almost always been a fundamental part of my life, 162 days a year.

So, David Ortiz, I am massively thankful for the wins, the parades, the records, and the homers. Thanks for the memories. And most importantly, thanks for being there for me to grow up with.

Photo by Winslow Towson/USA Today Sports Images

As the season winds down, Sox fans and both the Boston and national media have spent a lot of time both looking ahead to October and remembering the past. Of course, we’re fondly remembering and reminiscing about the career of a certain designated hitter. Meanwhile, Sox fans contentedly peer practically to the future issue of playoff team management, like which players make the 25-man roster and the order of the starting rotation.

Much of the roster that will play in the ALDS is obvious, but some spots are up in the air. How many people would have projected Sandy Leon to be a starting catcher on this year’s division-champion Red Sox? The 27-year-old has exceeded all expectations, and while his spot is clearly secure, his backup is slightly uncertain. Christian Vazquez seems to have lost all traction in earning playing time, so the decision will come down to Bryan Holaday and Ryan Hanigan. Neither offers much sexiness at the plate and both would dwell at the bottom of the lineup.

As Pete Abraham points out in the Globe, the Red Sox are 21-8 in games started by Hanigan (48-32 since last season, according to Michael Silverman) and, given his longer tenure and experience with the pitching staff, he seems to be the safer bet. Hanigan has a little potential to play to David Ross 2013-like role in October. That may just be a comparison made for the sake of comparison, but ‘wily veteran backup catcher’ seems like a prerequisite for playoff success.

The roster gets a little more complicated in the bullpen. All of a sudden, after months of blown leads and late-inning implosions and overreactions to bullpen mismanagement (of which I am assuredly guilty), the Red Sox … have too many relievers. That can’t be right.

Along with Drew Pomeranz moving to the bullpen with some shoulder soreness and fatigue, the team has five relievers who seem like locks to make the playoff roster: Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Brad Ziegler, Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross Jr. That leaves probably two spots (assuming 13 position players and 12 pitchers) for a group of pitchers who, frankly, have all pitched well enough in the past month of merit a roster spot: Heath Hembree, Fernando Abad, Robby Scott, Junichi Tazawa and Joe Kelly.

Pete Abe’s roster breakdown from above has Abad and Hembree making it as the final two. Maybe it’s the ease with which his name lends itself to unfortunate puns, but I have little confidence in Abad in high-leverage October situations. The lefty has a 6.39 ERA during his time in Boston and has allowed 13 hits and eight walks in 12.2 innings. Lefties, however, are just 3-for-23 against Abad since he arrived in Boston. On the year, he’s held opposing left-handers to a .459 OPS. That is, um, really good.

If the Sox are wary about Abad being bad (get it? It’s like his name), they would probably still want a lefty out of the pen other than Ross, who figures more as a long-relief out-getter. Maybe Pomeranz is healthy enough to pitch and pitch in tough spots in relief by the time the playoffs roll around. Regardless, Farrell may consider bringing Robby Scott into the fold. Scott, of course, has a comically short baseball-reference page, having made just six major league appearances in his career. But they’ve been good ones! The left-hander has thrown 5.1 scoreless innings, striking out five and allowing six runners to reach base. Lefty batters are 2-for-10 against him, so maybe Robby Scott is our LOOGY after all.

More importantly, can you imagine how much pleasure Joe Buck would get out of telling Scott’s undrafted-free-agent story to a national audience in the seventh inning of a playoff game? Give America the chance to hear it, John Farrell.

Much as I will always love him for his 2013 postseason performance (and you too, Brandon Workman, wherever you are currently rehabbing), Tazawa has looked worn out coming out of the bullpen and probably doesn’t end up on the roster. While his performances have been better of late, Farrell’s unwillingness to pitch Tazawa in high-leverage situations indicates that he’ll probably not be appearing in October.

So that leaves Hembree and Kelly. Prior to the nonsense grand slam Wednesday night, Kelly had yet to allow a run since returning to the bullpen in September. In 11.1 innings, he had allowed eight hits (all singles) and struck out 15. And, of course, Great Stuff. Kelly has it. Hembree, on the other hand, has worked to a 2.25 ERA in nine appearances since rejoining the roster in mid-August.

Given Hembree’s longer track record as a full-time reliever and the potential instability of other parts of the bullpen given Pomeranz’s injury and Scott’s inexperience, I wouldn’t be surprised if Farrell opts to put Hembree on the roster in favor of Kelly.

Quick Hits

The bullpen’s isn’t alone in helping the Red Sox to a division-clinching month of September. The rotation has been good and, with Pomeranz down, the postseason rotation is set to include David Price, Rick Porcello, Clay Buchholz and Eduardo Rodriguez. As Silverman writes in the Herald, the Sox have lined Price up to pitch game 162 Sunday and then Game 2 of the ALDS, with Porcello going Game 1. Buchholz’s Long and Winding Road of a season continued with an impressive six-inning, one-hit performance at Yankee stadium Wednesday. At Over the Monster, Matt Collins asks if we should be worried about Playoff Clay. Eddie Rodriguez’s season looks ugly on the surface, 3-7 with a 4.68 ERA, a 118 cFIP and 5.53 DRA. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story of his 2016, as Ben Buchanan points out at Over the Monster. Rodriguez owns a more than respectable 3.10 ERA while limiting hitters to a .213 average since coming back from AAA on July 16.

This week, the nostalgia incurred by the impending retirement of David Ortiz has come out in full force. This, still, to me, is not actually happening. I have not reached a point of acceptance with the end of Papi’s career. Watching this team well over 100 times has numbed my senses to the ongoing commemorations and commercialization of David Ortiz’s baseball farewell. Every final game in *insert miscellaneous American League ballpark* has spawned gifts and celebrations and fairly emotionless goodbyes. They have all blended together.

Now, it’s real. Thursday’s game will mark the last time David Ortiz plays in Yankee Stadium. One more regular season series at home. That’s it. Now we’re talking about whether he’ll make the Hall of Fame, as Dan Shaughnessy wrote in the Globe.

Papi himself is penning Players Tribune farewells to Yankee fans. He is the website’s Editor at Large, after all. And Brian Cashman is answering questions about Ortiz’s career in the past tense.

I guess this is really happening. After spending literally more than half my life with David Ortiz in it, his career is coming to an end. How about a championship sendoff?

Photo by Dan Hamilton/USA Today Sports Images