A major part of Sale’s transition will be adjusting to pitching the majority of his innings against foes in the American League East, which is a different beast from Sale’s previous home in the AL Central. To give a quick and dirty idea of what I mean: in 2016, by TAv, the East teams ranked 1, 4, 8, 9, and 14 in the AL, while the Central teams ranked 3, 10, 11, 13, and 15. Simply put, the offenses were stronger in the East last year. But it was not just last year; similar differences in offensive quality exist between these two divisions going back to 2012 (Sale’s first full year as a big league starting pitcher). The combination of the ballparks and the ways in which the teams were constructed has tended to favor offense in the East.

The good news for Sale and the Red Sox is that in his career, Sale has pitched very well against East teams (2.86 RA9, 22 HR, 259 SO, 68 BB in 226.1 IP) and in East ballparks (2.62 RA9, 7 HR, 146 SO, 35 BB in 134.0 IP). Those numbers are ridiculous and actually a little better than Sale’s standout career numbers. This success against the East division is wonderful to make note of and should help quell the concern about his move to Boston. But that’s too easy. Let’s fan the flames of that fire by looking at four batters who currently reside in the AL East – and will therefore see Sale more often than in previous seasons – with whom Sale has had (relative) difficulty.

Before getting to the hitters, I will note that specific pitcher-hitter matchups are mostly noise due to the low number of plate appearances, so highlighting these matchups is not meant to suggest that the Sale-mashing will continue from these guys, but rather that they are a point of interest and something to look for this coming season. It will probably not surprise you that each of the hitters who have had success against Sale and are focused on below are right-handed and are good hitters in general. As a reference, for his career, Chris Sale has held right-handed opponents to a .231/.283/.376 line (.235 TAv).

Chase Headley (3B, Yankees)

I can’t put my finger on exactly why, but I don’t really like Chase Headley. Maybe it is because I wanted him to come to Boston two years ago rather than Pablo Sandoval but then he went to the Yankees. Maybe it is because he got chippy with Rick Porcello last year. I don’t know. But if he keeps hitting Chris Sale like he has (.385/.429/.923 in 14 PA), it is going to get worse between me and Chase. Two of Headley’s five hits off Sale have been home runs, and they both were no doubters: as a Padre and as a Yankee.

Mark Trumbo (DH/OF, Orioles)

We used Trumbo as an example of that incredible thing that Sale does to get hitters to swing at pitches that hit them, but while he has been embarrassed by Sale he has done damage against him. In 15 PA he holds a .357/.400/.714 line that includes two doubles and a home run. Trumbo seemed to have Sale figured out one day in 2012, as he went 3-for-3 with a double off him, but since then he has only two hits (the other double and the home run), one walk, and five strikeouts. Take out those first three plate appearances and Trumbo’s line against Sale drops to .182/.250/.546. Ahh, the fun of variance in small samples. In any case, ideally Sale can hold the recent trend and keep Trumbo from rekindling that May 17^th, 2012 magic.

Adam Jones (OF, Orioles)

Trumbo’s teammate Adam Jones has also generally fared well when facing Sale, posting a .308/.400/.538 line in 15 PA. But, like Trumbo, much of his success came during one season. For Jones it was the 2014 season, in which he worked Sale over for three hits (one left the yard) in six trips to the plate; he struck out the other three times. In Jones’ subsequent six PA he has a single and a walk.

Steve Pearce (IF/OF, Blue Jays)

If not for the straightforward platoon advantage aspect, Pearce’s numbers are sure to get him in the lineup when the Jays oppose Sale. In 13 PA, Pearce has a .333/.385/.417 line against Sale with one double, one walk and only one strikeout. That last bit is the most interesting. Pearce has done well with putting the ball in play off Sale and it has led to some success. Pearce will take Justin Smoak’s (.143/.400/.143 in 10 PA) or Ezequiel Carrera’s (.250/.250/.250 in 4 PA) spot, making the Jays’ lineup a bigger challenge than it already is with the likes of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Bautista. However, of those three only Donaldson (.278/.300/.611, two HR in 20 PA) has had much success against Sale. Edwin Encarnacion has hit Sale well in his career (.385/.500/.615 in 16 PA) but he moved his parrot wrangling services to Cleveland and made facing the Jays substantially easier for Sale (and everybody else).

All told, pitching in the AL East, and specifically in Fenway Park, more often than he has in the past is going to present a challenge for Chris Sale in his first year with the Red Sox. There are some high-powered lineups and ballparks where the ball flies in the East, but Sale has a track record of dominance that is not a house-of-cards built on pitching in the AL Central. Sure there some right-handed hitters he is going to see more often who have had success in their limited chances against him, but there are also other, typically excellent, right-handed hitters that have struggled against him (e.g., Evan Longoria: .048/.091/.048 in 22 PA, Jose Bautista: .143/.250/.286 in 8 PA, Russell Martin: .000/.000/.000 in 10 PA). Plus, there is the stream of left-handed hitters who turn to mush when they step into the batters box to square off against the lanky lefty (e.g., Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner). It will be an adjustment for him, but I suspect he’ll be just fine.

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Going Deep

For many teams, roster construction for the 2016 season is still a work in progress. There are two-ish months between us and pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective Spring Training facilities. Despite this uncertainty, taking an early look at how the Red Sox seem to fit in the American League East division is a worthwhile exercise. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal has done just that, working team-by-team highlighting strengths, weaknesses and 2016 outlook. Britton suggests that the Blue Jays should be considered the favorite in the division, the Rays have too many ifs and a lack of depth to handle any under-performance, the Yankees’ fate still depends largely on production from aging players and the Orioles’ outlook, while potentially strong, remains difficult to determine given the remaining work the front office has ahead of it this winter. All told the Red Sox and Jays seem to be the class of the AL East, with the success of both teams likely falling in line with the success of the starting pitching behind their respective number one guys.

The Red Sox have made four major additions to the club this offseason and only one of them cost a lot in terms of prospects; Craig Kimbrel. The farm system is still loaded with talent. Factor in all of the big league promotions over the last few years (i.e., Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, Rusney Castillo, Eduardo Rodriguez) and the system that the previous front office group built becomes that much more impressive. I raise this aspect of the team because the Baseball America top-10 rankings were released this past week. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe takes a detailed look at each of the ten players who made the cut, which includes guys like Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi. The top five players on the list are likely all top-100 prospects, while the lower half includes two players who can contribute at the big league level right now, and two players whose bats will allow them to be productive big league corner infielders in the future. Ranking prospects is a murky business, as it is just so remarkably difficult to accurately anticipate the futures of players given the (often) limited information available. Nevertheless, the Red Sox’s prospect pool is filled with high-ceiling players who present a potentially bright future.

Quick Hits

The Red Sox got themselves an ace this offseason, but what can be expected of David Price? Mike Cole of NESN.com reviews a couple of the projections that are already available for Price. While Price is not projected to post another 2.30 ERA season as he did in 2015, the numbers are still impressive.

Eduardo Rodriguez will be pitching in one of the four rotation spots behind David Price in 2016. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal thinks that Rodriguez has the potential to be Boston’s number two starter, and compares his trajectory to that of old friend Jon Lester.

Newly acquired Carson Smith will be an important part of the Red Sox relief group in 2016. Ian Browne of MLB.com details how Smith’s unusual delivery, typically throwing from a side-arm/three-quarter arm slot rather than over the top, has helped him succeed at the highest level.

Some combination of Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan will be responsible for catching Price, Rodriguez, Smith and company this season. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe thinks that group of catchers puts the Red Sox in good position for the coming season. When it comes to Swihart, Matt Collins, writing for OvertheMonster.com, suggests that him reproducing the second half of his 2015 season will be important for the success of the Red Sox offense.

While the Red Sox appear set for the foreseeable future with a core of young, talented players and David Price headlining the rotation, the list of players who could be free agents following the 2018 season are tantalizing – and David Price could be one of them if he opts out. With this in mind, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com explores how the organization can be planning now to handle those future opportunities.

Finally, although it is not directly Red Sox-related, Michael Silverman’s article (at BostonHerald.com) on major league baseball’s decision to reject the reinstatement of Pete Rose is worth reading.

Photo by Kelly O’Connor/www.sittingstill.smugmug.com

Coming off a series win against the juggernaut Blue Jays on the weekend, the Red Sox faltered a bit this week against the Rays. The good news is that Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts are still looking like top-level players late in the season, and Jackie Bradley Jr. is still getting an opportunity to work through his most recent spat of offensive ineptitude. The bullpen is a high-wire act every night, but I suspect most of the guys in the current ‘pen won’t be part of next year’s crew, although a few of them could be. The games don’t matter for this year, but they do in a future development sense. The Sox winning has pushed them up to being the 11^th worst team in the game, which moves them out of a protected pick spot in next year’s draft and affects the money they are allocated for the draft and for signing international players. While the surge for third place in the division is fun, it is probably better that the boys lose a little more often so that the organization has a better chance at acquiring impact talent for the future. This sort of thing affects a large market team like the Red Sox differently than a small market team like the Rays, but it is still worth considering.

Baltimore Orioles – Record (76 – 76) – Projected Record (82 – 82)

The Orioles currently sit third in the American League East, which is right around where preseason projections had them. Their offense has hit for power but been hampered by on-base issues, making them below average as a unit (96 wCR+ … more on that below). On the pitching and defense side of things they have been middle of the pack, and, like the offense, around league average (98 ERA-, 99 FIP-). Being around average on offense and average on defense is not necessarily a bad thing, but it won’t lead to a great record. The Orioles have been a middling team for most of the season and, like the Red Sox, they are in look-to-next-year mode. With several key parts of their team heading to free agency this offseason (e.g., Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O’Day, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce), what they do this winter will have important implications for whether the run of success they’ve experienced over the last four seasons will continue.

Probables:

Game 1: Rich Hill vs. Kevin Gausman, Friday, 7:10pm EDT

The 35-year old New Englander, Rich Hill, will make his first home start this weekend after carving up the Blue Jays and Rays on the road. Hill has been a wonderful surprise this September. In his two outings he has only allowed three runs and eight hits in 14.0 total innings pitched. Oh, and he has a ridiculous 20:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The extent to which Hill’s performance is sustainable going forward is not clear, but he represents an interesting option to consider for the 2016 team. Ryan Morrison wrote an excellent article looking at Hill’s loopy, high-spin curveball and how effective it can be when paired with a well-located fastball. The Orioles’ offense pairs the ugly combination of striking out a lot (22.4% strikeout rate is third highest in the game), with not walking a lot (6.8% walk rate is sixth lowest in the game) so Hill has a good opportunity to maintain his already impressive K/BB ratio.

The development of the much heralded Gausman has been bumpy. He was rushed to the big leagues last season, then spent April and the start of May as a reliever before being sent down to Triple-A to get stretched out into a starter. He returned to the Orioles in late June and has been used as a starter ever since. Over 15 starts the results have not been all that great. He has a 4.43 RA9, 4.30 FIP and 4.55 DRA. He throws a four-seam fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a forkball/split-change and a slider. The slider will be critical to his development as a starter but so far its lacking in effectiveness. He pitched against the Red Sox ten days ago, holding them scoreless over six innings, but struggled with control and walked four batters. He struck out seven, but four walks is too many.

Game 2: Bullpen Day vs. Wei-Yin Chen, Saturday, 4:05pm EDT

A stream of relievers will take the hill on Saturday. Who will start the game is not known, but it will reportedly be the reliever that is most rested. The bullpen day is an interesting concept, and something that the Tampa Bay Rays have been doing throughout the season. The Red Sox are likely implementing it because Steven Wright is still on the disabled list with a concussion and they want to limit the innings of Eduardo Rodriguez. In any case, going with a bullpen day makes things a little more difficult for the opposition, as they cannot stack things in a way to consistently gain a platoon advantage, and will not get the full benefit of the times through the order penalty. I expect the starter, whoever it may be, to go two or three innings, facing 15-20 batters before handing things off to the next guy in the chain.

Chen is one of those pitchers who does a decent job each season without much fanfare. Over his four seasons in the majors he has always thrown at least 130 innings, and been worth at least one win above a replacement player. Having someone in the rotation who can do that year-in and year-out is quite nice. This season has been his best if you go by ERA (3.36), but his peripheral numbers (4.24 FIP, 4.35 DRA) suggest that he has had some good fortune along the way to keep that ERA down. This weekend will be Chen’s fourth outing against the Red Sox this season. In his previous three, he mixed one really good start around a mediocre one and a pretty bad one. Hopefully the Sox can add another negative outing to Chen’s ledger.

Game 3: Henry Owens vs. Ubaldo Jimenez, Sunday, 1:35pm EDT

Last time out, Owens continued his tendency to follow great starts with rough ones, as he allowed five runs in 7.1 innings against the Rays. He got 21 swings and misses, but ultimately allowed too many runs. That start came after an outing in which he held the Orioles he will face this weekend scoreless over 7.2 innings, getting 14 swings and misses. The whiff totals are a positive sign that his stuff will work at the major league level, and these ups and downs are to be expected from a young starter, but he needs to start piling up positive outings if he is going to be a part of the 2016 rotation. Sunday’s start will be Owens’ sixth start at Fenway, and unfortunately the previous five have not been great. At home he has a 6.99 RA9 (6.04 FIP), while on the road he has posted a 2.38 RA9 (2.83 FIP). This pronounced split is largely a result of all seven home runs he has allowed having come in Fenway. Ideally, Owens can build on his successful outing against the Orioles that came earlier this month in Camden Yards, and improve his standing while pitching at home in the process.

Ubaldo Jimenez has followed up an excellent first half (3.08 RA9, 3.27 FIP in 99.1 innings pitched) with a real clunker second half (6.28 RA9, 5.14 FIP in 71.2 innings). In the first half Jimenez had a 98:32 K:BB, and only allowed eight home runs. In the second half he has walked the same number of batters, struck out 41 fewer, and allowed 11 home runs. Ah, the sweet, sweetness of regression toward a mean. Jimenez is essentially a league-average pitcher who walks too many batters. He has not fared well in his three outings against the Red Sox this season, having yet to get into the sixth inning in any start.

Opposing Lineup:

The Baltimore offense has been underwhelming as a group. They have scored 4.4 runs per game, which is average for the American League but ahead of only the Tampa Bay Rays in the East division. Their .255 TAv ranks 23^rd in the game, which is simply not enough in the AL. With that said, they still have some boppers in the lineup. Manny Machado has a deserved reputation as a defensive whiz at third base, but he is also a consistent contributor at the plate: 132 wRC+, 29 home runs, 9.7% walk rate. Along with Machado, free agent-to-be Chris Davis has been mashing all year (43 home runs, 27 doubles), likely earning himself a nice contract this offseason, and team-leader Adam Jones has continued his free-swinging ways (61.2 Swing% is 2^nd highest in the game, min. 200 plate appearances) and produced at an above average level (110 wRC+). The problem with the Orioles offense is that after those three, only one other player (Jonathan Schoop, 114 wRC+) has accumulated at least 200 plate appearances and posted a wRC+ better than average. While the Orioles can slug the ball (.421 SLG is 5^th best in the game), their on-base issues (.307 is 26^th) – only two players have an OBP over .320 (min. 200 PA) – have really limited them from piling up the runs scored totals.

With rosters expanding and the season winding into the last 10 or so games, the lineup that I have given could look quite different, as Buck Showalter may want to let some of his regulars have time off. We will likely see Jimmy Paredes (.256 TAv) get a game in the outfield, Nolan Reimold (.256) take the designated hitter spot one day, and Caleb Joseph (.251) do the catching, sparing the oft-injured Weiters.

Recap

The Red Sox have been playing really well since the trade deadline, and the Orioles are sluggishly making their way to the finish line. The Orioles have dominated the season series to date, taking 11 of the first 16 match-ups. The head-to-head results is one aspect of this weekend’s series to watch, but of larger significance (maybe?) is that it will play an important role in determining who finishes in the basement of the division.

Photo by Jeff Griffith/USA Today Sports Images

In a way, these commercials have perfectly summed up this Red Sox season. After something terrible happens, you can always count on people telling you that everything will be fine. It’s nice in theory, but if anyone has just been watching the Red Sox without paying attention to the context of the league, they’d look at optimistic people like they have six heads. At different times (and sometimes all at once) the pitching, offense and defense have all looked impossibly bad. This is a team that’s six games below .500 with a -46 run differential. How could anyone think it’s all going to be fine?

Well, in this case the context of the league is incredibly important. The American League is as mediocre as I can ever remember it being. Right now, the Angels have the best chance of making the playoffs by Baseball Prospectus’ odds. They are just four games above .500. Even more important to the Red Sox, the rest of the American League East has been a dumpster fire. None of the teams in the division have better than a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs. Just two, the Yankees and the Rays, are above .500, and they’ve eclipsed that mark by a combined five games. For as poorly as Boston has played, they are still just five games from getting a bye through the wildcard round.

Before we take a look at how these kind of divisions have gone historically, let’s take a closer look at these teams moving forward. The Yankees currently sit in first place behind the strength of a particularly strong run from mid-April to mid-May. While they’ve been led by bounce-back performances from guys like Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, they’re a team that could be destroyed by one or two major injuries. They’re the odds-on favorite to take the AL East crown this year, but far from the monster of a team they were a decade ago.

While the division was viewed almost as a toss-up prior to the season, the Rays were the one team that many agreed would be hard-pressed to wind up at the top of the standings. However, on the back of strong pitching, they are currently in second place and have the second best playoff odds. Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi have both been incredible, but they’re also relying on a lineup that consists of Evan Longoria and eight other dudes. An injury in the rotation, or simply some fatigue, could derail that team quickly.

The Orioles are currently in third, and have the lowest playoff odds of any team in the division. They’re a tough team to get a handle on, as they should be better than this, but there aren’t  many clear ways for them to improve internally.They are the most bland team in baseball’s most bland division.

Finally, the Blue Jays were a common preseason pick, but their pitching has held them back in a big way. They’ve scored the most runs in all of baseball, but they still find themselves six games below .500. With that being said, they’re still the scariest team in the division, because they have a couple of young pitchers who could turn it on at any point and an offense that can carry them in the meantime. Of course, one could say the same thing about the Red Sox if their offense ever starts to play up to their potential.

To get a clearer picture of how these unclear situations typically go, I looked back through the last 15 years to find some comparisons. These were hard to come by. I searched for divisions that looked this mediocre on June 4 of any given year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a group of teams playing this poorly was not overly common. Going back to 2000, I found four examples:

In 2009, the Tigers were the only AL Central team over .500, and they only surpassed that mark by four games. By the end of the season, the Twins came back by playing .548 baseball through the rest of the year and won the division. However, they weren’t playing nearly as poorly as Boston has in the first part of the season. On June 4, 2009, Minnesota was just one game under .500 and had a +7 run differential. They’re not a great source of optimism.

One year before that, the NL West also only had one team with a better-than-.500 record. Similar to the 2009 AL Central, the eventual winner was below .500 on June 4. The Dodgers were 28-31 on that date in 2008, and posted a .544 winning percentage the rest of the way to claim the division title. However, like the Twins of the year before, their run differential told a different story, as they were +9 in the early part of the year.

One of the most favorable comparisons for the Red Sox comes from the 2007 NL Central. Through June 4, the Cubs found themselves seven games under .500 and 6.5 games behind Milwaukee, the only better-than-.500 club in the division. The Cubs went on a huge run for the rest of the season, winning 57 percent of their games and eventually winning the NL Central. Unfortunately, once again, run differential tells a different tale. Chicago was +20 on June 4, meaning they were a much better team than their record would indicate. They are likely a better comparison for the 2015 Blue Jays than the Red Sox.

Finally, we get to the 2006 AL West and the Los Angeles Angels. Although they didn’t make the playoffs that year, they would have been one game out of the second wildcard had it existed at the time. They also represent the best comparison for the 2015 Red Sox. On June 4, this team was six games under .500 with a -31 run differential. They would turn it on through the rest of the year, playing .604 baseball from June 5 onward, and finishing the year with 89 wins. In any other division, they would’ve played themselves out of the race early on, but they were held in the race just long enough by playing in a mediocre division.

The Red Sox have played poorly enough that it’s gotten annoying to hear that their chances aren’t dead yet. However, it’s important to look at their almost unprecedentedly mediocre division, and the past says divisions like this can be won by underperforming teams. There are changes that need to be made, but playing in the 2015 AL East means one strong run can put the Red Sox right back in the thick of the playoff race.

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