Koji is inextricably tied to the 2013 championship team, of course. His campaign that year was one of the most uniquely dominant pitching performances I can remember, high-fiving his way through countless high-leverage innings on the way to the title. In honor of the end of Koji’s MLB career, I spent some time thinking about how his unbelievable 2013 season stacks up against other performances in recent Red Sox history. Let’s take a look at the competition and see who boasts the best individual bullpen season among Red Sox teams since 2007.

Honorable Mention: Junichi Tazawa, 2012

44 IP, 26.2 K%, 2.9 BB% 0.20 HR/9, 1.42 ERA, 1.82 FIP, 2.14 DRA

I wanted to make sure I mentioned Junichi Tazawa in this piece because, while I don’t think he has an individual season that quite ranks among the best of the past ten years, it feels as though he’s been underrated historically among Boston fans. Images of his rough final seasons in Boston are perhaps a little too fresh in people’s minds, but Tazawa was a workhorse for the Red Sox who deserves some warmer recognition.

Tazawa started the 2012 season pitching for Triple-A Pawtucket, and he hit the ground running as soon as he came up to the big-league club to replace Mark Melancon (remember him?). A lot of praise is (deservedly) spent on Koji’s absurd aversion to walks in 2013, but Tazawa actually managed a lower walk rate in 2012, allowing only five free passes in his 44 major league innings. Perhaps most notably, Tazawa was a horse – he pitched 86.1 innings between Triple-A in the majors in 2012 and exceeded the 60 IP mark in each of the next two years, while pitching almost exclusively high-leverage situations. John Farrell leaned on Tazawa almost to a fault, and although his overuse created issues in later years, he was an indispensable piece of the bullpen puzzle for some time.

Tazawa never got the kind of glory a traditional closer would — high-leverage, non-closing relievers have historically struggled to get consistent recognition — but I haven’t forgotten about him.

5 — Daniel Bard, 2010

74.2 IP, 25.8 K%, 10.2 BB%, 0.72 HR/9, 1.93 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 2.96 DRA

Statistically, Daniel Bard’s 2010 might not quite compare to the other seasons mentioned on this list, but it’s the context of his brief run as the team’s setup man that gets him here. Bard once looked like the future of the Red Sox bullpen, a potent fireballer with some of the most ridiculous stuff I’ve ever seen. Across his first three seasons in the majors, he averaged close to 98 miles per hour on his fastball and 84 on his notorious wipeout slider, making hitters look completely futile with hilarious regularity. This utterly absurd, 99 mph something that he dropped on Nick Swisher in 2011 might be the greatest individual pitch in MLB history.

Evidently, it wasn’t meant to last. As we all should well remember, a doomed attempt to convert Bard into a full-time starter destroyed first his command, then his confidence. After the wheels came off in 2012, Bard shuttled around the minor league teams of the Red Sox and other franchise, trying desperately to regain some of his former self. It didn’t work, and this past January, he retired at 32 years old.

In 2010, though, Bard was at the peak of his powers, and the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon in the closer role. The warning signs were hanging around — the walks in particular were a little too high — but he had that sparkling sub-2.00 ERA and he certainly looked good, so we were all willing to look past it. His 2011 might have been a little more steady in terms of peripherals, as he cut back on the walks significantly, but Bard Fever was never stronger than that first full season in the majors. He may have washed out dramatic fashion a couple years later, but I’ll always remember him for that dizzying peak.

4 — Andrew Miller, 2014

42.1 IP, 40.6 K%, 7.7 BB%, 0.43 HR/9, 2.34 ERA, 1.69 FIP, 2.00 DRA

These days, we know Andrew Miller as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball, and the foremost example of managers prioritizing high-leverage situations over traditional save situations. He’s not actually the Indians’ closer, but he’s their best bullpen arm and a force of nature in the late innings.

Years ago, though, Miller was a struggling journeyman starter who couldn’t establish himself in the majors. Miller had no command over his pitches, and hitters more or less had their way with him — in some ways, it was not entirely dissimilar from Bard’s late career. Miller hit his nadir in 2010, when he posted an ERA north of 8.00 across 30.2 innings in the majors and one above 6.00 in 85.1 innings in Triple-A.

The Red Sox got their hands on Miller with a minor league deal thereafter, and by 2012, they’d finally embraced him as a full-time reliever. It was exactly what he needed; the walks came down and the strikeouts went way up. Miller’s 2014 was the peak of this Boston reinvention, short-lived as it was. He struck out over 40 percent of the batters he faced and combined with Uehara and Tazawa to form one of the most formidable late-inning units the Red Sox have fielded in recent years.

Unfortunately, they were formidable, but futile. The 2014 Red Sox were terrible, falling to the bottom of the AL East immediately after the 2013 championship, and if there’s one thing terrible teams do, it’s trade their relievers. Relievers, after all, are the most immediately expendable way for struggling franchises to bring quick prospect value to their farm team. Miller went to Baltimore, and while Eduardo Rodriguez looks to be a valuable starting pitcher for years to come, it still hurt a bit to see Miller dominating the 2016 playoffs with Cleveland en route to their World Series loss to the Cubs.

3 — Jonathan Papelbon, 2007

58.1 IP, 37.5 K%, 6.7 BB%, 0.77 HR/9, 1.85 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 2.41 DRA

You knew he was going to pop up here eventually.

Arguments can be made either way between Papelbon’s 2006 and 2007 seasons, but for me, his integral role in the 2007 championship gives that year the edge. Papelbon was a buzzsaw for his entire career in Boston, and the closest answer the Red Sox have ever had to the greatness of Mariano Rivera. He had a manic, unhinged energy on the mound, and while that persona would go on to cause him problems in later years, it made him an instant fan favorite at Fenway Park. There were few more exciting moments in a Red Sox game than Papelbon walking out to “Shipping Up To Boston.”

Papelbon was essentially the spitting image of the traditional closer role, a fastball-centric fireballer who lived and died with his mid-90s four-seamer. He was also remarkably durable, pitching 60 innings or more in nine of his 10 seasons from 2006 to 2015. Ironically, 2007 was the one he didn’t, but he still threw 58.1 frames and appeared in 59 games. These days, he likely wouldn’t stand out quite as much in the current landscape of MLB relievers, but for the late 2000s, he was perpetually near the top.

In addition to his regular season performance, Papelbon threw 10.2 scoreless frames in the playoffs en route to the Red Sox second championship in four years. He was a consistently great playoff performer, with an ERA of exactly 1.00 in his 27 career postseason innings, but would never make another postseason appearance after the team’s short-lived stay in 2009. Papelbon flamed out as aggressively as he pitched, but he’s among the most important bullpen arms in the history of the franchise. The fact that he’s only third on this list is a testament to how great our next two entries really were.

2 — Koji Uehara, 2013

74.1 IP, 38.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 0.61 HR/9, 1.09 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 1.78 DRA

In 2013, Koji Uehara struck out 101 batters and walked only nine. Think about that for a minute.

If his career started 10 years earlier, teams would likely have laughed at the idea of using a pitcher with an 88 mph fastball as their closer. It was still a fairly weird concept in 2013, and he didn’t even begin the season as the closer. Closers have always traditionally tended towards the “97 mph flamethrower” type, which makes Koji one of the most unique pitchers to fill that role in recent baseball history. He didn’t have crazy velocity, but he did have a dominant sinker and a supernatural command of the strike zone, and in that particular 2013, hitters had no idea what to do with him. He was simply impossible to square up on. He allowed only five home runs on the season, and had a line drive rate of only 11.3 percent. For reference, Papelbon’s career-best mark in that regard was 15.3 percent.

The magic was fairly short-lived. For his following two seasons, Koji was merely very good rather than transcendent. Hitters started to catch up, and home runs became a greater bugaboo as he aged – he allowed twice as many in 2014 despite pitching 10 fewer innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio slipped from above 10 in 2013-14 to around five in 2015-16, still a solid mark but not superhuman. In essence, he just got old.

That 2013 season was magical for a lot of reasons. The Red Sox were a team of cast-offs and underappreciated players like Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Stephen Drew. In other words, Koji was right at home. A return to the Red Sox this season was never really realistic — the Red Sox have more than a few right-handed relievers and his level of play isn’t where it once was — but it’s still bittersweet to see him leaving the league. Hopefully the Yomiuri Giants are prepared for some aggressive high-fives.

And somehow, it still wasn’t the greatest season we’ve seen from a reliever in recent seasons. That one came just last year.

1 — Craig Kimbrel, 2017

69 IP, 49.6 K%, 5.5 BB%, 0.78 HR/9, 1.43 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 1.89 DRA

The Red Sox paid a hefty price to acquire Kimbrel two seasons ago with a prospect haul beyond what you’d typically expect for a reliever in most situations, especially considering he was coming off a 2015 season in San Diego that wasn’t quite up to his typical level. While effective, his 2016 season wasn’t quite the performance you’d want to see from a player with such a price tag, either; he walked an enormous amount of batters en route to his first season with an ERA above 3.00. Some of the sheen started to come off one of the greatest bullpen arms in history.

Because of all this, I think it’s actually possible we collectively didn’t appreciate Kimbrel’s 2017 enough. It may well have been the best season of his career. Kimbrel struck out just shy of half the batters he faced — astonishingly not even a career-best in that regard — and he did it with the best command of the strike zone he’s ever shown. If there’s ever been some kind of weakness to Kimbrel’s game, it’s that he historically issued too many free passes (career walk rate of 9.5 percent), but it seems he finally just decided to… not do that anymore, I guess? Kimbrel he walked only 5.5 percent of the batters he faced, stranded 93.9 percent of the baserunners he allowed, gave up only 11 earned runs, and pitched 69 of the nicest innings from a reliever in Red Sox history.

While the 2018 Red Sox bullpen isn’t exactly a known quantity — Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg are returning from long absences due to injury, while Joe Kelly and Matt Barnes are solid but unspectacular middle-inning guys — Kimbrel is money in the bank. He’s among the greatest relievers in baseball history, and he somehow still seems to be getting better. If he continues to limit his free passes like he did last year, it’s entirely possible he could replace his own spot on this list. Wouldn’t that be something?

Photo by Kim Klement — USA TODAY Sports

But this isn’t a simple case of passing the buck. The 2018-19 off-season promises perhaps the biggest free agent class ever. It’s such a promising offseason that I can remember hearing about it three or four years ago, which, when you think about it, is ridiculous. Still, there’s a reason for the extreme foresight. In case you’re unaware of the specifics of this class, here is a list of players who will hit the open market after this upcoming season.

• Josh Donaldson
• Charlie Blackmon
• Drew Pomeranz
• Elvis Andrus
• Brian Dozier
• Andrew Miller
• Craig Kimbrel
• A.J. Pollock
• Daniel Murphy
• Marwin Gonzalez
• Gio Gonzalez
• Andrew McCutchen
• Nelson Cruz
• Zach Britton
• Cody Allen
• Adam Jones

Pretty nuts, right? And here’s the part about it that is crazy, bizarro, extreme, Vince-McMahon-rebooting-the-XFL-level nuts: that’s not really the list. Sure, all those guys are going to be free agents after the 2018 season, but I didn’t include three guys of particular note. I’m talking about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Clayton Kershaw. Those three guys are the reason people have been talking about this free agent class for half a decade.

Those are some huge names, some huge players. The thing is, in the case of the first two, both will be 26 years old in 2019 — the first year of their new contracts. Not since Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers as a 25-year-old-to be in 2001 have we seen a player with this level of talent enter the market at such a young age. This free agent class has two of those guys. Oh, and also the best pitcher since Pedro Martinez in Kershaw. It’s truly a stacked class, and teams have been planning for it since fans became aware of it, or maybe even before that.

We’re 400 words into this thing and I haven’t yet brought up the Boston Red Sox which is odd since this is a Boston Red Sox website. Like every other team, the Red Sox are aware of this class of players. Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening. The total salary expenditure that teams must be below is $197 million. After that, penalties aplenty are levied, which increase each season teams that are over. The Red Sox kept below the luxury tax threshold last season, meaning if they go over this season the penalties aren’t too steep.

Like every other team, the Red Sox would love to have many of those players. The luxury tax is preventing that from happening.

With arbitration raises though last season’s payroll has gone up even though the roster is basically the same, putting the Red Sox over the threshold in 2018. Signing Bryce Harper or Clayton Kershaw would certainly put the Sox over again in 2019 and, considering they’d likely have to put a huge AAV towards doing so, it would contribute to putting them over again in 2020 as well. Should the Red Sox go far over they could lose their first round draft pick in addition to paying a ton of extra money as a tax for spending so much (seriously, players union, WTF?).

The effect of this on the Red Sox is to incentivize them to spend below the tax threshold. The Red Sox already have $92 million locked up in player salaries for the 2019 season, and that’s for just four guys in David Price, Dustin Pedroia, Rick Porcello, and Mitch Moreland. (They’re paying $18.45 million to a fifth in Pablo Sandoval but he’s no longer on the team.) Things get tighter if the Red Sox do shell out another $100+ million deal for J.D. Martinez or another free agent this offseason. That would likely put the Sox over the tax threshold for a second consecutive season, even without signing Harper or another big name from next off-season’s free agent class.

Now, the Red Sox could say, “Screw it, we’re going to put the best team on the field regardless of the luxury tax limit.” But that seems unlikely. The team has spent liberally over the years since John Henry bought them back in 2002, and there’s little reason to expect that not to continue, but asking the team to pay millions for the privilege of paying millions years into the future seems unlikely.

The problem as it stands now is that the team doesn’t have minor league talent that can step in for veterans on expiring contracts, meaning if everything else stays as is, free agents will have to replace free agents. For example, Rick Porcello’s deal is up after the 2019 season which sounds great. Hooray! The Red Sox will have $21 million to use. Except what do you think the going rate for a decent starting pitcher will be in two seasons? I’m guessing it’s going to be a lot, maybe something around $21 million a year. And the Red Sox will also have to replace (or re-sign) Chris Sale and they’ll have already replaced (or re-signed) Drew Pomeranz the season before, likely requiring more money. Boston’s dollars aren’t endless is the point, and guys on cheap deals can’t all be replaced at the top of the market.

One way out for the Red Sox is if David Price opts out of his contract after the 2018 season. If he does, the Red Sox are off the hook for the remaining four years, $127 million. That money could be spent directly on a Kershaw or, probably more likely, Sale.

While the Red Sox could make a run at Kershaw, and damn the luxury tax, the other two generational talents are less likely to sign in Boston. Both Harper and Machado play positions the Red Sox already have covered for the significant future. Machado plays third base where the Red Sox are hoping Rafael Devers will be for the next six seasons. Sure Boston could move him to first or deal him and try to add Machado, but doing that is a significant step towards the luxury tax threshold. Harper seems the more realistic of the two at least in terms of fit, as one of Jackie Bradley or Andrew Benintendi could be moved to make room. And that would be fine. Harper is that good. But the thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do that. They don’t have a hole at third or a hole in the outfield corners, which means they’d be both replacing a good player and doing so by adding one of the biggest contracts in baseball history. Considering their place against the cap (we’re just going to call it what it is, a soft salary cap), doing that seems unlikely.

You never rule it out though. This is the Red Sox. This is Dave Dombrowski. These are great, great players. You never rule it out. But right now, where the Red Sox are, with David Price’s deal on the books until it isn’t, and $18.5 million due to Pablo Sandoval this coming season and the one after it, the arbitration raises coming due, and the lot, it doesn’t seem like the right time for the Red Sox to make a huge addition. All of which means they may just sit out the greatest free agent market of all time.

Or, you know, not.

It also offered a clear rebuttal to Buck Showalter’s highly-questionable choice during Tuesday’s Wild Card game to save Super Closer and Cy Young candidate Zach Britton for a save situation that, at least in part due to his very decision, never arrived. It’s not apples to apples, but Showalter’s refusal to use Britton because he might need him later stood in stark contrast–a black hole in the sun kind of contrast–to Terry Francona’s bullpen usage, and, to only a slightly lesser extent, John Farrell’s.

Read the rest at Baseball Prospectus

Photo by David Richard/USA Today Sports Images

A quiet day would be an abnormal development for the Red Sox, who are usually active at the deadline, especially since the turn of the century as they’ve consistently made major moves to either boost a playoff-caliber team, or tear apart the bad ones. Many deals succeeded, leading to championship runs. Some failed miserably. Others, well, didn’t do much of anything. Regardless, Theo Epstein, Ben Cherington and Co. were never afraid to pull the trigger.

Today’s trade deadline may leave Red Sox fans underwhelmed, but many deadlines haven’t. Let’s look back at some of those busier deadlines and see just how well (or poorly) they turned out. I present you with the five biggest Red Sox trade deadlines of the 21st century.

5.) 2013

Red Sox acquire right-handers Jake Peavy and Brayan Villarreal, send shortstop Jose Iglesias to the Tigers and send right-handers J.B. Wendelken and Francelis Montas to the White Sox

This trade technically came the day before the 2013 trade deadline, but I make the rules here, and I say that’s good enough to make this list. Anyway, the 2013 Red Sox were in the midst of a worst-to-first turnaround, but needed another starting pitcher for their playoff push. Insert Jake Peavy. The righty gave the Sox just what they needed, posting a 3.82 FIP in 10 regular-season starts and helping them win the World Series. Peavy’s 2013 postseason was less than stellar, but he did start the ALDS clincher against the Rays, allowing just one run on five hits over 5.2 innings. The Red Sox got an ok half season out of Peavy in 2014 before shipping him to the eventual world champion Giants in 2014.

The only notable loss for the Red Sox in that deal was Jose Iglesias, but even his departure wasn’t a major letdown at the time with Stephen Drew and Dustin Pedroia at shortstop and second base, respectively, Will Middlebrooks (sort of) contributing at third and Xander Bogaerts on his way. Iglesias was known primarily for his glove coming through the Sox organization, but was hitting well early on in 2013, posting a .285 TAv in 63 games before being dealt. Iglesias missed all of 2014, owned a .252 TAv in 2015 and has a .243 TAv this season. Meanwhile, Bogaerts could be the one of the best offensive shortstops in the majors for years to come. Safe to say the Red Sox made the right move.

Iglesias still contributed to the 2013 title, by the way.

That led to this:

4.) 2009

Red Sox acquire catcher Victor Martinez from the Indians for right-hander Justin Masterson, left-hander Nick Hagadone and catcher Bryan Price

The playoff-bound Red Sox bolstered their lineup with one big swap, adding Victor Martinez in exchange for Justin Masterson and a pair of prospects. Martinez proved to be a nice addition, as he split time between catcher and first base over 183 regular-season games between 2009 and 2010. Martinez posted a .302 TAv in 237 plate appearances in 2009 and a .281 mark the next year. He didn’t give the Red Sox the postseason production they were hoping for in 2009, collecting just a pair of hits, but that run also lasted just three games.

This trade wasn’t necessarily a win or loss for either team, but it’s safe to say the Indians got more out of the deal. Masterson pitched five solid years in Cleveland, his best being in 2013 when he was the ace of the staff and led the Indians to a postseason berth with a 2.63 DRA and 3.38 FIP. The righty’s career has since flamed out after a disastrous season with the Red Sox in 2015, but the Indians certainly got the best of him.

3.) 2014

Red Sox trade left-hander Jon Lester to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes and a competitive balance pick; send right-hander John Lackey and left-hander Corey Littrell to the Cardinals for outfielder Allen Craig and right-hander Joe Kelly; trade left-hander Andrew Miller to the Orioles for right-hander Eduardo Rodriguez and send shortstop Stephen Drew to the Yankees for utility infielder Kelly Johnson

Making one major trade at the deadline is big. Two deals is impressive. Four deals in one day is on another level. That’s exactly what the Red Sox did at the 2014 trade deadline as they shipped off a number of veterans over four trades, eyeing the future in the midst of a last-place season.

The Sox’s deadline activity actually began five days earlier when they traded Peavy to the Giants for Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar. Escobar is no longer with the team, but Hembree has turned into a nice innings eater out of the bullpen. The real fireworks, however, began early on the morning of the deadline when Jon Lester was sent to the A’s for Yoenis Cespedes. Lester was once again pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the Sox were out of contention and the lefty was in the final year of his contract with no long-term agreement in sight. Cespedes, meanwhile, was a big bat with another year left on his deal. Lester picked up where he left off upon joining the A’s, posting a 2.35 ERA and 3.16 FIP over 11 starts. The Sox pursued Lester in the offseason, but lost out to the Cubs. Cespedes owned a .269 TAv over 213 plate appearances before being dealt to Detroit for Rick Porcello in the offseason. Sure, Porcello doesn’t seem like a stellar return for Lester (although Porcello has been one of their two most dependable starters this season), but they also could have lost the lefty for nothing that offseason had they not traded him.

Then there was the deal we’d all like to forget. That was the deal that brought Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston in exchange for John Lackey. The trade made plenty of sense at the time. Lackey was pitching well, but had little future left in Boston, especially after expressing his displeasure about pitching at the major-league minimum in 2015. Craig was a former All-Star who appeared to be simply having a bad year, while Kelly was young, could throw hard and had shown potential after posting a 2.69 ERA over 15 starts in 2013. Two years later, the deal looks as bad as ever for the Red Sox. Lackey posted a 2.77 ERA while pitching at the minimum for the Cardinals last season. Craig spent most of last season in Triple-A and has since fallen off the face of the earth. Kelly has spent his time with the Red Sox either hurt, or bouncing between Triple-A and the majors.

As dominant as Andrew Miller has been over the last two-plus years, a young pitcher like Eduardo Rodriguez was about the best you were going to get for a rental reliever (how times have changed). The Orioles got the most out of Miller, who owned a 1.16 FIP in 23 appearances with Baltimore in 2014. He’s since become one of the best closers in baseball over the past two seasons. The Red Sox, meanwhile, got a potential middle-of-the-rotation arm for a player they would probably lose to free agency anyway.

The Stephen Drew trade proved to be insignificant. He gave the Yankees an ok season and a half and Kelly Johnson gave the Red Sox next to nothing. However, the trade opened up shortstop for Bogaerts, and we all know how that’s gone.

This deadline was as crazy as it gets for any team. At the time, the Red Sox seemingly won the day, but hindsight shows that not all of it worked out as planned. The Lackey deal is a perfect example of that. However, it would’ve looked worse if the Red Sox lost some of these players to free agency.

2.) 2008

Red Sox acquire outfielder Jason Bay from the Pirates, trade outfielder Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and send right-hander Craig Hansen and outfielder Brandon Moss to the Pirates

This trade was years in the making. It was far from the first time Manny Ramirez had been part of a trade rumor, and even further from the first time he wanted out of Boston. In 2008, the Red Sox finally pulled the trigger, and got a player in Jason Bay who could fill Ramirez’s void immediately. From a straight trade standpoint, the Red Sox and Dodgers both got solid production for a year and a half of service. Bay posted a .308 TAv in 211 plate appearances with the Sox in 2008, while owning a .302 mark the next season. Ramirez was even more impressive with his .425 TAv in 229 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2008 and .336 mark in 2009 as LA reached the NLCS both seasons. Ramirez was clearly better than Bay during that time, but by that point he had been nothing but a distraction in Boston and needed to go.

As for the prospects the Red Sox gave up. Craig Hansen’s career continued to be forgettable. Brandon Moss’ career never really materialized until his 2012 arrival in Oakland in 2012, where he totaled 76 home runs over three seasons. Moss, 32, has a .323 TAv and 17 home runs for the Cardinals this season.

1.) 2004

Red Sox acquire shortstop Orlando Cabrera from the Expos and first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz from the Twins, and send shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and outfielder Matt Murton to the Cubs, and acquire outfielder Dave Roberts from the Dodgers for outfielder Henri Stanley

This may go down as the biggest trade deadline in Red Sox history. It was significant enough that they traded, at the time, one of the most iconic players in team history. Add in the fact that it helped propel the Sox to their first World Series title in 86 years and you’re talking about a deadline worth telling your grandkids about.

We start, of course, with the Nomar Garciaparra trade. Garciaparra had been the face of the Red Sox since his 6.0 WARP rookie season in 1997 and a clear fan favorite. He was also really, really good, owning a 43.7 WARP between 1997 and 2003 (keep in mind he missed most of 2001). But by July 2004, he had seemingly overstayed his welcome in Boston. He was in a contract year with no promise of returning, had become a defensive liability and was expected to miss more time with an Achilles injury. Epstein, in a stroke of groinal fortitude, dealt away the superstar in hopes of shoring up the team’s “fatal flaw”: defense.

Epstein got just what he was looking for from Orlando Cabrera. The shortstop’s .268 TAv with the Red Sox was comparable to Garciaparra’s .272 TAv with the Sox in 2004, but he also posted a positive FRAA and played 15 more games than Garciaparra did in the final two months. Cabrera left at the end of the season and the Red Sox began a carousel at shortstop over the next decade, but the championship and Garciaparra’s rapid decline soon after was enough to justify the move.

The Dave Roberts trade was a footnote in the midst of an active deadline, and with good reason. The outfielder made just 101 plate appearances and posted a .251 TAv. He was simply acquired to add speed, defense and depth off the bench. However, Roberts is also responsible for the biggest stolen base in Red Sox history.

***

It’s unlikely the Red Sox will do anything to top these trade deadlines this season. But that’s why a list like this exists. You don’t get fireworks every season. When you consider the moves the Sox have made in the past month, it makes even more sense for this deadline to be a quiet one. That’s not always a bad thing.

 Photo by USA Today Sports Images

The Red Sox are getting to the end of that first stage, but the strange part is we don’t really have a handle on what that first stage has told us. This makes it difficult to know how they should handle the second stage. Boston sits last in the AL East, but only 6.5 games behind the first place Yankees. Then again, Boston’s run differential is -43. Then again, based on the track records of the players on the team, there’s reason to believe that figure doesn’t accurately represent the quality of the team going forward, only what they’ve done to date. You can already see the problem.

It’s not just idle speculation and fanboyism that leads someone to say the Red Sox still have a shot. Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs both publish team projections for the remaining games on the schedule. Both see the Red Sox as one of the best teams in the AL: FanGraphs has them in first outright and BP second to the Angels by a half game. But even so there are clearly a number of holes on the team, and a crunchy roster that doesn’t quite integrate as well as you’d like. Ben Cherington has talked about approaching the deadline not as a buyer or a seller, but as a team looking to improve itself long term. That makes sense, but it’s also a bit of a copout. What team doesn’t want to improve itself long term?

Short term, as in this season, the Red Sox have three main issues: they need to assemble a starting rotation, they need to find someone who can produce at first base, and they need a better bullpen. The problem is the way they approach those problems will vary depending on whether they are in a position to push toward the playoffs. For instance, you wouldn’t trade a significant piece to upgrade the bullpen while letting first base languish. Now, if there is a long term solution at first base COUGHTRADEEVERYTHINGFORGOLDSCHMIDTCOUGH then maybe you make that move and then if the market for relievers is insane you move on and try to patch from within or take a look again at the waiver deadline in a month. There are degrees here, for sure.

Then again, we’ve seen what straddling the line has looked like before. In 2014 Boston sold hard at the deadline, but they didn’t do it in a traditional vets-for-prospects type of way. They did deal Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, and that deal has paid dividends already, but they also dealt arguably their two best starting pitchers in John Lackey and Jon Lester for players already on major leaguer rosters, i.e. not prospects. Not even a year has passed and already those deals look awful. You couldn’t give Allen Craig away (we know because the Red Sox tried) let alone use him as a piece to acquire John Lackey, and Joe Kelly is hilarious on Twitter and also in Triple-A. Oops. Yoenis Cespedes came back for Lester and this off-season, instead of holding on to Cespedes, Boston dealt him to Detroit for Rick Porcello after signing Hanley Ramirez.

The Lester and Lackey deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them?

All those deals look rotten now, but was there anything intrinsically wrong with the thought process behind them? Is continuing down that road wrong at its core? It’s difficult to say.  It seems that last year wasn’t a case of the Red Sox front office misevaluating players so much as playing the lottery on what the players they acquired would become (with the exception of Craig). You wouldn’t condemn Ben Cherington if Yoan Moncada failed to reach his potential, for example. The Red Sox looked at him, believed in his talent, and paid what it cost to acquire him. After that, you try your best, but if it doesn’t happen, what are you gonna do? The same scenario applies to Kelly and, to a lesser extent, a post-injury Craig. That they turned out badly doesn’t necessitate a bad pre-trade thought process. Cespedes was different in that he was a known quantity. They didn’t get any discount on him when they acquired him either. But Craig and Kelly were both available because their value was down. They were upside plays, an attempt to get better players than might normally would be available in such a deal by accepting the risks that acquiring those specific players required.

Those risks haven’t panned out and it seems reasonable to criticize the Red Sox front office for taking those risks in the first place. The Red Sox aren’t typically the kind of team that needs to take expensive risks when it comes to players. They can pay more to minimize risk, and indeed Cherington has done exactly that when it comes to free agent signings (Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley) and player extensions (Porcello). Perhaps that’s the lesson of the 2014 deadline: don’t accept damaged goods just because you get a better price. Instead, acquire the best players you can and let that be your legacy.

With the roster in its current state, it seems the Red Sox are set to make deals again this deadline. The difference is, unlike last season, it’s hard to see who Boston would part with. Craig, Napoli, Daniel Nava, and Kelly have no trade value. Clay Buchholz is hurt. Koji Uehara has another season at $9 million due, which at his age and with his injury history likely hurts his trade value significantly. Maybe trading Junichi Tarawa would make sense, except the Red Sox bullpen needs Junichi Tazawa next season. Unless Boston is willing to sell core-type players or really shake up the roster by dealing guys they just acquired last off-season, there doesn’t seem to be much on the roster or even in Triple-A that can help a contending team. Which is a weird statement to make about a roster that projection systems are still saying is the best in the American League.

So in the end, we’re back at something like a grey area, at least from an outsider’s perspective. Boston can be both a buyer and a seller in that they need players and are also not particularly close to a playoff spot at the moment. They can also not be either as there are reasons to see the team as not good enough to make the playoffs and with a roster full of undesirable players to teams with rosters good enough to make the playoffs. Weird season, huh? The only thing is to hope, whatever the true takeaway points were from last season’s deadline deals, that Ben Cherington and company took them away. The Red Sox need a win at the deadline. The season may be drawing to a close.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Let’s go over those transactions, what the thoughts were behind them (presumably) and how that thinking may have changed 10 months later.

July 26

Trade 1: Jake Peavy and cash to the San Francisco Giants; Received Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree

Who Boston Gave Up: At the time of the deal Peavy was struggling with a 4.72 ERA. Of course as soon as he got to the Giants he became peak Peavy again, throwing 78 innings of 2.17 ERA ball, but that doesn’t matter to Boston. Good for Peavy, who won his second ring in as many years with the Giants and netted himself a two-year, $23 million deal to stay in San Francisco. He wasn’t needed in Boston anymore.

Who Boston Received: What matters here is that Escobar and Hembree came to Boston for half a season (what was remaining on Peavy’s deal at the time) of an older pitcher who wasn’t pitching well. Escobar, the get in this deal, just turned 23 years old. He’s a lefty with some speed on his fastball, two average off-speed pitches, and the potential to step into the back or, if everything breaks right, middle of a major league rotation sometime in the near future. His upside is about what the Red Sox gave up in Peavy (not the Cy Young Peavy, but the Red Sox version), but with seven years of control at a low cost instead of three months at a high cost. Right now he’s on the disabled list with left shoulder inflammation, which does not sound good, but then that’s the life of a pitcher.

The other player in the deal was Heath Hembree. The scouting report was that he has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s, but not a whole lot else, but he’s doing quite well in Triple-A this season with 12 strikeouts to only two walks in 12.1 innings.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: It’s unclear how the careers of the two pitchers who came to Boston will play out, but as with all young pitchers, the Red Sox got themselves two lottery cards and, at least in one instance, a card with decent odds of turning into something. Even in light of Peavy’s success with the Giants this deal looks like a steal. A.

July 30

Trade 2: Felix Doubront to the Chicago Cubs; Received a player to be named later ( Marco Hernandez)

I’m going to skip the boilerplate and just say that Marco Hernandez has a .610 OPS in Double-A as a 22-year-old. Further I’m going to say Felix Doubront, after a short required post-Red Sox tour of duty with the Cubs, was released and as of this writing is out of baseball. Generally I don’t like deals where one club deals a major leaguer for a minor league nobody. Even if the major leaguer is not very good, he’s still a major leaguer, but in this case, this is effectively nobody for nobody. Moving on…

July 31

Trade 3: Traded Andrew Miller to the Baltimore Orioles; Received Eduardo Rodriguez

Who Boston Gave Up: At the time of the deal Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball. Now, he’s one of the best relievers in baseball. That’s a tough standard to maintain, though. In 2014, Miller was worth 2.2 fWAR, seventh-best in baseball among relievers. Care to guess who was the seventh best reliever in baseball by the same metric in 2010? Matt Belsile. Sure it would be nice had the Red Sox re-signed Miller, but given who he is and what they got, it’s still a deal you make every time from Boston’s position.

Who Boston Received: Eduardo, or Eddie, Rodriguez, came as a highly touted 21-year-old starter, one of the best prospects in Baltimore’s system. But he wasn’t supposed to be this good. Upon getting to Pawtucket, he altered the way he threw his changeup and took off from there, crushing the International League through the end of the 2014 season. This season he’s picked up mostly where he left off.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: This is exactly the kind of deal an out-of-contention team should make. Exactly. The fact that the Red Sox netted their best pitching prospect helps the optics of it, but even if Rodriguez blew out his arm tomorrow, a high upside starter for half a season of a reliever, even one as good as Miller, is a no-brainer. Sure it would be nice had the Red Sox re-signed Miller, but given who he is and what they got, it’s still a deal you make every time from Boston’s position. A

Trade 4: Traded Stephen Drew and cash to the New York Yankees; Received Kelly Johnson

Again no boilerplate here. This one was pretty simple, if notable because of the organizations involved. The Red Sox had re-signed Drew to play shortstop on a contender. They were not a contender, thus they didn’t need Drew. The Yankees needed someone to play second base while they chased a Wild Card. Without Drew the Yankees didn’t need Kelly Johnson. The Red Sox, as it turned out, didn’t need him either, flipping him to Baltimore for Jemile Weeks and Ivan De Jesus at the end of August. De Jesus was cut loose and is now in the Reds organization while Weeks is (not hitting) in Pawtucket.

The end result here was the Red Sox didn’t have to pay the last two months of Drew’s contract. Mission accomplished!

Trade 5: Traded John Lackey, Corey Littrell, and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals; Received Allen Craig and Joe Kelly

Who Boston Gave Up: John Lackey had a year and a half of his contract left when Boston sent him to St. Louis. Due to a clause in his contract that specified he would play an additional year at the major league minimum if he missed a year with an arm injury, Lackey was a steal. The Red Sox had Lackey, a number two or three starter, at about $600,000, for a full season. That’s value right there, and the front office should have extracted value in return. They… sort of… did?

Who Boston Received: There was talk of receiving a top prospect but the Red Sox went a different route, opting for major league-ready players in return. They got, as you know, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig.

We’ll start with Craig. Clearly a buy-low attempt by the front office, the former All Star had received MVP votes in two seasons prior to suffering a Lisfranc injury that essentially wrecked his 2014 season. The hope was an offseason of recovery would do wonders and the Red Sox would have an All Star on a long-term, low-cost deal. So far, at least, this has not happened, and it has not happened in a profound way. Craig has been horrendous, batting .130/.235/.192 during his time with Boston. The problem is that if Craig isn’t hitting he doesn’t bring value on defense or on the bases, and he’s not especially great at getting on base either.

The Red Sox sent him to Pawtucket. His career isn’t over. There is still a chance to salvage some value here, but just the fact that I’m using the word “salvage” should make it clear how badly this part of the deal has gone. At this point the Red Sox couldn’t give Craig away, let alone trade him for something valuable like a year of a good starting pitcher.

Then there’s Joe Kelly. Kelly may or may not be a starting pitcher. There’s a case to be made that he’s pitched much better than his ERA shows, he’s young, he’s got a woof’n fastball, and he’s under team control until 2019. Those are all points in his favor. And even if he’s a bullpen arm, he’s got some value. One could make a case that Kelly is worth a season and a half of Lackey. I’m not sure it’s a case I’d make for this team as currently constructed, but you could construct an argument that wouldn’t be nuts.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: It’s important to note that the Red Sox received nine player seasons for a year and a half of Lackey. Right now they have six plus of those player seasons remaining. The returns aren’t promising, but there is still time. D

Trade 6: Traded Jonny Gomes, Jon Lester and cash to the Oakland Athletics. Received Yoenis Cespedes and 2015 competitive balance round B pick

Who Boston Gave Up: We’ll dispense with Gomes because this isn’t about him in any way at all. The Red Sox season was over and he had no more usefulness left. This is all about Jon Lester, the best pitcher the Red Sox have developed since Roger Clemens. I’m not going to rehash all the contract negotiations here, but in the end the Red Sox determined they couldn’t meet Lester’s price. Then, during the off-season, they attempted to meet Lester’s price, which by that time had gone up. I’m shaking my head right now. I consider myself an objective analyst but it is admittedly difficult to be objective about this. Given where Lester was in his career, you can maybe understand why the Red Sox made the offer they did. But by the time the trade deadline rolled around the team had succeeded in poisoning the well to such an extent that they felt they couldn’t sign Lester. We now know with some certainty that had they come to Lester on that day and offered him the six year, $135 million deal or even a slightly lesser variant of the same deal they would present to him in three months, Lester would still be in Boston.

This would be a whole lot easier to stomach if the Red Sox didn’t need Lester but of the holes on this current team, the biggest is at the front of the starting rotation. Losing Lester means the team better have received something hugely intensely amazing in return…

aaaaaaaaaaaand they didn’t.

Who Boston Received: Yoenis Cespedes was and is a good power-hitting outfielder who the Red Sox might have thought they could sign long term. They couldn’t agree on terms and Cespedes was dealt to Detroit for Rick Porcello, who the team then gave the money they initially offered to Jon Lester to. Porcello should do fine for Boston but unless he develops new strikeout skills, he’s not the pitcher Lester was.

By the letter of the law, the Red Sox turned a half season of Jon Lester into a season and a half of Rick Porcello, plus exclusive negotiation rights that turned into a four-year extension. Yet it’s difficult to look at it that way. Lester wanted to stay in Boston. The Red Sox needed him to stay in Boston. He should still be in Boston. But he isn’t, and it’s hard to look at that as anything other than a huge mistake.

Utterly Arbitrary Grade: I really wanted to give this an F, but Porcello is a good pitcher and an asset, no matter what you think of his contract. C-/D+

The focus on major league players was an attempt to bolster the roster for a playoff run in the short term. Plainly put, that part has not worked. Craig and Kelly are disappointments or non-factors, and it’s not hard to see that the team would be better off with Lackey. Porcello is, again, fine, but he’s a step or two back from Lester. The fact that Craig is now in Triple-A adds an ironic twist to Boston’s insistence on bringing back major league players in these deals, as well as a sad statement on their lack of success. Oddly, the player who may present the largest impact to the major league team might be Eduardo Rodriguez.

Boston’s strategy appeared to be similar to how some teams (most teams?) approach the draft: accumulate as much talent as possible regardless of position and let things sort themselves out later. The Red Sox did that to some extent by acquiring Cespedes and then flipping him to Detroit for Porcello. Beyond that, Boston may have under-estimated their ability to upgrade the offense through free agency during the then coming off-season. If they knew adding Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez were possibilities it makes you wonder why they’d want Allen Craig.

The story of the 2014 deadline deals isn’t over. We won’t know for a long time how this whole thing plays out. But right now, 10 months after the fact, with holes throughout the rotation and an overabundance of money if not talent committed to the outfield, it’s difficult to call those six days successful.

Top photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

C: Blake Swihart (-.16) vs. A.J. Pierzynski (Braves, .78)

I can’t believe it either, but Pierzynski is the only real option for starting catcher. Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t really in the big leagues and David Ross isn’t an everyday player. That’s pretty much it. For as much bad as we can say about Pierzynski — and we could go damn near forever — we can say very little about Swihart except that, thank the gods, he’s not Pierzynski. Let’s call it even if only from the standpoint of human decency.

1B: Mike Napoli (-.14) vs. Adrian Gonzalez (1.99)

This one’s not really close. Napoli is in a giant slump and Gonzalez has been the best hitter in the game so far this season, more or less. The ex-Sox leap ahead.

2B: Dustin Pedroia (1.24) vs. Mike Aviles (.44)

Pedroia has held the Red Sox’ second base position down for so long that we need to shoehorn Aviles in here just to round out the infield (unless we want Stephen Drew and his 0 WAR, which we don’t). The current Red Sox are as far ahead here as they are anywhere, and we’re more or less even again.

SS: Xander Bogaerts (.33) vs. Jose Iglesias (.40)

This would be Jed Lowrie (1.36) of the Astros, but Lowrie is hurt, as usual, and everybody loves Iggy. Bogaerts may yet become the ninth wonder of the world, but if you had a team with the offenses that both of these teams have, the defense would be the important part if you were playing the game today. Bogaerts’ future means squat here. Slightest advantage to the ex-Sox.

3B: Pablo Sandoval (.73) vs. Adrian Beltre (.05)

There are no losers here. Pats on the head for everyone. Sandoval has been better this year, but Beltre is Beltre. Let’s call it even, with the ex-Sox a tick ahead.

DH: David Ortiz (.07) vs. Victor Martinez (-.29)

Another case of two players I love, both of whom have started slowly. Advantage Red Sox, though, because come on. It’s a dead heat. It won’t stay that way.

Outfield: Hanley Ramirez (.72), Mookie Betts (1.26), Brock Holt (\o/, .44)
vs.
Yoenis Cespedes (.27), Jacoby Ellsbury (.97), Brandon Moss (.14)

Both of these teams would rotate their outfielders and both teams have good a good set of them beyond the starters; for the Red Sox, you have Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava and Rusney Castillo waiting in the wings, while for the ex-Sox, you have Coco Crisp and, yes, Carl Crawford. Did I say “Carl Crawford?” Advantage: Red Sox, who are about to get slaughtered.

Rotation
Clay Buchholz (.81), Rick Porcello (-.15), Justin Masterson (.15), Wade Miley (-.11), Joe Kelly (.03)
vs.
Jon Lester (.89), Anibal Sanchez (.50), Bartolo Colon (.71), John Lackey (.80) and Rubby de la Rosa (.10)

Advantage: The ex-Sox by five miles. Maybe 10 miles.

Closer: Koji Uehara (.21) vs. Andrew Miller (.49)

Andrew Miller has been almost as good as possible be this year. His ERA is 0.00 in 15+ innings. He has a 28:8 K:BB ratio. He has 13 saves. He’s a big reason the Yankees are in first place.

Koji is Koji.

Advantage: Red Sox, but the damage has been done. You’re going to want those ex-Sox in a single game, a seven-game series or a season. It’s okay, because the Red Sox are still (really!) damn good, and come into tonight’s game at 41 percent to make the playoffs and the highest expected winning percentage in the AL East, all while being three games below .500.

But yeah…

… if it doesn’t work out, just know the Ghost Sox are doing work out here, too.

Photo by Caylor Arnold/USA Today Sports Images

If we’re looking for admiration, we have to step back one season prior to 2013, when a championship appeared as if Ben Cherington just happened to find one in the bottom of his back pocket while taking a post-lunch stroll through the Common. Not unlike the 2004 squad, the 2013 team dissolved almost as quickly as it emerged. Some have retired, some have remained, but many have scattered, ashes from an urn, floating on the winds to new destinations where, they hope, the cycle will be repeated.

For us now, we have the 2015 team and the hope and promise they bring, but as we focus on our new friends, perhaps it is worth a look back on old friends to see how they’re making out. What follows is a series of questions intended to test your knowledge of the 2013 team, the World Series, and what those players who brought you the third World Series win in the last 10 seasons at the time have done since.

1. Two years later, what percentage of the 2013 team remains on Boston’s roster?
A) 33%
B) 50 %
C) 67%
D) 75%
E) 82 %

2. Which member of the 2013 team has been the most valuable player by WARP since winning the World Series (so including 2014 and 2015)?
A) Jacoby Ellsbury
B) Dustin Pedroia
C) Jon Lester
D) John Lackey
E) Jarrod Saltalamacchia

3. Which pitcher other than Jon Lester and John Lackey won a 2013 World Series game?
A) Jake Peavy
B) Felix Doubront
C) Brandon Workman
D) Junichi Tazawa
E) Ryan Dempster

4. Which member of the 2013 team has played for the most teams since hoisting the World Series trophy?
A) Felix Doubront
B) Stephen Drew
C) Andrew Bailey
D) Franklin Morales
E) Alfredo Aceves

5. Which former Red Sox’s new team is doing the best in the standings so far in 2015?
A) Andrew Miller
B) Jonny Gomes
C) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
D) David Ross
E) Jose Iglesias

6. After David Ortiz’s .688 batting average, the next highest for a Red Sox player during the World Series was .250. Who did that?
A) Dustin Pedroia
B) Xander Bogaerts
C) Daniel Nava
D) Jonny Gomes
E) Jacoby Ellsbury

7. Which member of the 2013 Red Sox left the team in 2014 only to return to the organization this season?

8. Which member of the 2013 Red Sox has been the least valuable by WARP this season?
A) Jon Lester
B) Jonny Gomes
C) Andrew Miller
D) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
E) Stephen Drew

9. Of the now moved on 2013 Red Sox, who put up the best OPS+ in 2013?
A) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
B) Stephen Drew
C) Jonny Gomes
D) Will Middlebrooks
E) Jose Iglesias

10. Of the now moved on 2013 Red Sox, who has the most home runs this season?
A) Jarrod Saltalamacchia
B) Stephen Drew
C) Jonny Gomes
D) David Ross
E) Jose Iglesias

Click here for the answers!

Photo by Kelly O’Connor, sittingstill.smugmug.com