Triple-A Pawtucket: Anthony Varvaro (RHP) and Ryan LaMarre (OF)

Anthony Varvaro does not fit the mould of the players we typically review in Fenway’s Future. He is not a prospect, but rather a 31-year old reliever who is working to get another chance in the major leagues. Varvaro pitched effectively for the Braves from 2012 to 2014, and got into nine games with the Red Sox last year before a torn flexor tendon ended his season in May. This season, Varvaro is again pitching effectively. In 27.0 innings for the PawSox he has only allowed eight runs, and has struck out more than one batter per inning. The strikeouts are promising but he also allowed 12 walks and already has four wild pitches, so his control is still a work in progress.

With the questions that loom regarding how the Red Sox’s bullpen will shake out over the next few weeks and Varvaro’s performance at Pawtucket thus far, he could get a call to come back to the big leagues soon. And if that call is going to happen, it needs to come now, as Varvaro had an opt-out in his contract that allowed him to leave the organization yesterday, June 15. Last week, Varvaro told Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal that he did not know what he was going to do about the opt-out, but he noted that he thought the Red Sox bullpen had plenty of options and was not in need an adjustment. However, given his previous major league experience and effectiveness, and current effectiveness in Triple-A, giving him a role in low-leverage innings could work out well. It is a small sample and almost nobody maintains reverse-splits over an extended period, but Varvaro has been tougher on lefties than he has on righties in his career. With this in mind, perhaps Varvaro could replace Tommy Layne. Then again, this might just be making a move for the sake of keeping Varvaro in the organization, while exposing Layne to other teams (he is out of options). Regardless, Varvaro is someone who should be considered to fill any opening that should arise in the Red Sox bullpen.

Left field is another area/position of the Red Sox that is in a state of flux. With injuries to Brock Holt and Blake Swihart, Chris Young has been forced into a starting role; a move that may be the best, as Rusney Castillo is still a mess at the plate (.245/.304/.320). Rather than Castillo, the Red Sox should consider adding PawSox center fielder Ryan LaMarre to their bench. LaMarre, a second round pick of the Cincinnati Reds in the 2010 draft, got a cup of coffee with the Reds last season before signing with the Red Sox as a free agent this past offseason. At Pawtucket he has performed very well. He has a .310/.377/.462 line, with five home runs and nine stolen bases in 13 tries. The stolen base success rate could be better, but otherwise those are solid numbers.

Adding LaMarre to the major league bench provides a versatile outfielder with speed; he is a center fielder but has played left and right field in the minors. The move also affords Castillo yet another chance to get regular plate appearances and work out all of the things that ail him. Castillo is not a major league ready player and it is really unlikely that he will become one by watching games on cushy major league benches. Adding LaMarre to the major league team requires adding him to the 40-man roster, which may be why the Red Sox have opted to shuttle Castillo back-and-forth, but the 40-man issue seems like a minor part of a decision that could help multiple components of the team.

Double-A Portland: Justin Haley (RHP)

At the end of the 2014 season, Justin Haley made six starts (37.2 innings) for the Sea Dogs and pitched well (1.19 RA9, 3.73 FIP). His fielding independent measure shows that he was basically the same guy in 2015 (3.83), but his runs allowed mark jumped significantly to an unimpressive 5.80. Much of the runs allowed difference was a result of a huge drop in strand rate. In 2014 only 4.9 percent of his baserunners eventually scored, while in 2015 that number was 37.3 percent. In 2016, Haley is pitching closer to his 2014 levels, which is good news for the organization. Over his twelve starts (61.1 innings), Haley has a 2.20 RA9 (2.58 FIP) with 59 strikeouts and only 19 walks. His strand rate, while high at 80.2 percent, is not dramatically above his career rate. Presently, he is in the midst of a really strong run. In eight of his last nine starts he has allowed one or fewer runs, the lone holdout a blow-up against Toronto’s affiliate in which he allowed four runs on two hits and four walks, while only recording one out. Ugly stuff. A positive from that outing is that he seems to have quickly put it behind him. His four starts since have all been strong. Coming off of his difficult 2015, in which he pitched well but allowed too many runs, Haley must be feeling better about his progress and ability to compete against quality opponents. If he continues to perform well a promotion to Pawtucket by season’s end could be in the cards.

Quick update on Andrew Benintendi (OF):

When we last checked in on Benintendi he was still adjusting to the Double-A level, having posted a .105/.150/.158 line in his first 20 PA. Since then he has a .268/.312/.394 line over his 77 PA, with a home run, a triple and four doubles. He seems to be adjusting to his new level quite well. Perhaps Benintendi can provide a Bogaertsian-2013 role for the Red Sox down the stretch and in playoff games this year.

High-A Salem: Ben Taylor (RHP)

Taylor, now a force out of the Salem bullpen, started the season as a starter. He made three starts to start the year, two of which went well. However, due to his overpowering fastball that registers in the upper-90s, the team felt he could be most effective in shorter outings as a reliever. The results suggest the team was not wrong. In his 30.0 relief innings, Taylor has only allowed six runs, while striking out 42 batters and only walking six. Seven-to-one is an incredible strikeout-to-walk ratio and one that foretells future success. It should be noted that Taylor’s move to the bullpen has not made him a one-inning-and-done guy. In fact he has yet to have a one inning appearance. He has made 11 appearances, on-average throwing 2.2 innings, and in two cases throwing four or more innings (4.0, 4.1, respectively). In that 4.0 innings outing, 10 of the 12 outs he recorded came via the strikeout. Clearly, he can be dominant. While it is not clear that this is the intention with Taylor (and others), I love the idea of the organization developing effective multi-inning relievers. They could change the way the big league roster is constructed, ideally allowing for a deeper, more versatile bench.

Quick updates on Yoan Moncada (2B) and Rafael Devers (3B):

Moncada’s season line has dropped since our last check-in, but it is still very impressive and strong enough for a promotion to Double-A soon. His season line currently sits at .299/.419/.466, with three home runs, three triples, 22 doubles, and 36 stolen bases in 44 tries.

Devers continues his up-and-down season. He seems to follow a couple of good games with a couple of bad ones. For example, last week he had back-to-back multi hit games, but then went 0-for-4 in each of the following two games. Regardless, there is progress. Over the last three weeks Devers has a .329/.368/.429 line, which is much more in line with expectations.

Low-A Greenville: Jose Almonte (RHP)

The 20-year old, Almonte has been another bright spot in the Drive’s rotation. His season started slower than he had hoped, as he was recovering from a hip/groin injury sustained during Spring Training, but since getting on the mound for regular reps he has shown what he can do. In six starts this season (31.0 innings) he holds a 2.90 RA9 (3.41 FIP), with 27 strikeouts and just 11 walks. His three pitch mix, mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup have made him difficult for the opposition. For example, in his third start of the season, easily his best, Almonte held the Braves’ affiliate hitless over six scoreless innings; two walks kept him from registering a perfect appearance. With Almonte, and 18-year-olds Anderson Espinoza and Roniel Raudes, the Drive have an exciting mix of young pitching to track over the coming years.

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As I detailed earlier in the season, Boston’s in a rather stable position going into the 2015-2016 arbitration window. With most of the team’s most critical players either still playing out the string on league-minimum deals (Mookie! Xander! Hooray!) or in the midst of pricey open-market deals and extensions (Porcello! Pablo! Boo!), the Sox are a team without a whole lot of uncertainty going into the arb process.

Recently, Matt Swartz came out with his offseason arbitration projections over at MLB Trade Rumors. Predicting things is a terrible business, but just like the old BP Annuals, Matt’s projections are deadly accurate. Using these arbitration projections as a guide to what a player will end up with is almost always a safe bet, and a great way to manage expectations.

Today, I thought it might be fun to take a look at the team’s current arb-eligible players, and find out what tact the team may take when it comes to the offseason. Knowing what we know now — that the team will likely be looking to build a fresh bullpen and hopefully reload to leap back into contention — I think we can make a reasonable guess as to which players will return, barring a trade or three. And that’s especially true given that all seven players for which the Sox need to make an arbitration decision come from the team’s sketchy bullpen.

The Definites: Junichi Tazawa, Joe Kelly and Robbie Ross

These three relievers (well, two relievers and a should be reliever) are, perhaps, the team’s best relievers under the age of 40, and for that reason it is extraordinarily unlikely that the team would non-tender any of them. In addition, none of these players has the counting stats that become overvalued in the arbitration process: namely saves and innings pitched. Let’s try to break them down one-by-one.

Junichi Tazawa — Projected 2016 Salary: $3.3 million

Unlike most of the pitchers on this list, I think there’s a pretty solid consensus that Tazawa is both an above-average reliever and under-valued compared to the open market. Junichi is heading into his final arbitration season, and for a player with both his pedigree and time in the league, this is a great value.

More than any other pitcher in the Boston bullpen, Tazawa has a proven “true talent” ability. cFIP, which measures this, posits that Tazawa has a score of 84 for his big league career, which is solidly above-average. While his seasonal ERA and DRA were down in ‘15, he got BABIPed to death (.349) and had tough luck with his strand rate (71%). He should be a keeper, and be a fine late-relief option, if not a dominant relief ace.

Joe Kelly — Projected 2016 Salary: $3.2 million

Here’s the thing: if Kelly does somehow transform into a relief ace, then his arbitration cost is just fine. If Kelly continues to be used in the rotation, pretty much at any non-disaster level of performance, then his arbitration cost is fine. But if he’s a bullpen JAG (just another guy), then while 2016 may be an okay term, the team will almost certainly have to trade or non-tender him after next season.

As a swingman, well, you’re probably not very excited about Kelly. Neither am I. I’d love to see if his already-nice fastball picks up a few ticks in short work, and maybe he can mothball his not-so-nice curveball. We already know that Dombrowski has come out in favor of Kelly as a starter, which is fine, I suppose, but on a team that could use bullpen weapons and has good-ish starters galore, I’d like to see them consider converting him.

He’ll be fine. And either way, he’s likely worth the money.

Robbie Ross — Projected 2016 Salary: $1.1 million

Robbie Ross may have been the team’s closer and best reliever near the end of the season, but there’s no circumstance where the team wishes for him to be the ninth-inning guy in 2016. Ross is left-handed and okay, which is great, since no one else currently in the bullpen is both left-handed and okay. His overall numbers for 2015 are pretty average: a cFIP of 99 says that he’s about league-average in terms of true talent, and a DRA of 4.07 says that he about got what he deserved in terms of runs against. Of course, Ross seemed to improve in the second half of the season, and it’s possible that he’ll beat his 2015 numbers rather than fall apart.

Ross’s salary projection is $1.1 million, which is chump change for a slightly above-average reliever. Boston should end up paying this in a heartbeat, if they don’t figure out some sort of short-term extension instead. Going year-to-year on Ross is fine, but extending him on a value contract is great too, as the stability of having a solid ‘pen lefty is a nice thing to have. He’ll be back.

The Maybes: Anthony Varvaro, Jean Machi, and Ryan Cook

Anthony Varvaro — Projected 2016 Salary: $700k

I’m inclined to dump off Varvaro, but mainly because of his injury issue. To put a fine point on it, Varvaro’s flexor tendon tear, which took him out of the bullpen in May after just 11 innings, caused Varvaro to be waived, claimed by the Cubs, and then returned to the Sox after his injury was found to be more serious than anticipated.

Varvaro had been pretty good in the two seasons before coming to Boston, where he saw his walk rate and BABIP get much, much worse. But given his injury issues, I’m not certain that the Red Sox would need to offer him anything above the league minimum to retain him. Varvaro’s reverse platoon split is nice to have when your bullpen isn’t exactly stacked with lefty-killers, but there’s already been a lot of performance variance, and the injury issues are a red flag. I’d think the team could let him fly, and perhaps bring him back on a minor-league show-me deal instead.

Jean Machi — Projected 2016 Salary: $900k

Machi’s ERA in his two seasons prior to this most recent one is immaculate, but his 2015 performance was … not. It’s a long walk from his ERA from being in the mid-twos to five-plus, but Machi’s underlying peripherals didn’t change all that much. You saw how his Boston run was damaged by giving up lots of hits and homers, something that perhaps an improved Boston defense could help mitigate in 2016. At the same time, Machi has never had dominant stuff, and his career cFIP of 100 basically screams league-average.

Though Machi hasn’t looked sharp in his short time with Boston, his 1.3 WARP in each of the two previous seasons shows he’s got the potential to be better than just an okay bullpen piece — those are really good numbers. I’d expect somewhere between half a win and three quarters next season and, on a cost of less than a million, I’d keep that.

Ryan Cook — Projected 2016 Salary: $1.4 million

This is the toughest decision, for me at least. Even though Cook looked pretty good as recently as 2014, his 2015 was a hot mess. You can forgive his terrible eight-and-two-thirds innings at the big league level as a small sample size, but his run at Nashville before coming over to the Sox was pretty shoddy as well. However, his time in Pawtucket was very, very strong in a limited sample.

Cook has potential, sure, but I have to think a non-tender is the right move here. Yeah, a million and a half is chump change for this team, but it’s also an unnecessary risk for a squad that needs a complete overhaul. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a non-tendered Cook finds his way onto a roster only as a minor-league contract guy, so the team should save the money and perhaps put it toward a less risky bullpen option. But I’m not a scout, I’m looking at the stats. The real questions are: (1) are there better options out on the market somewhere and (2) is Cook going to stay healthy AND effective?

My best estimate is that the team rolls the dice on the dicey Machi, lets Varvaro fly, and Cook is a bit of a wild card. The team’s internal scouts and talent evaluators are going to make judgement calls here, and either way they probably can’t go wrong on Machi and Varvaro. When you’re talking about $700k-$900k, arbitration doesn’t drag a player too much up from the league minimum, so risk is low.

Cook’s a different issue. The team acquired him from Oakland despite an awful run there, so they must see something in his work that makes them want to take the risk. Both his bad run in Boston and his good run in Pawtucket are small samples, so I have to imagine there’s something the team likes here, and they keep him, even though I’d personally be more skeptical. Get a guy like this on a minor-league deal, and save a million.

The No: Alexi Ogando

Alexi Ogando — Projected 2016 Salary: $2.4 million

Ogando’s 3.99 ERA belies just how bad his peripherals were last year. Alexi gave up 12 homers in about 65 innings (not good) and walked too many hitters (3.9 BB/9). In fact, FanGraphs’ FIP-based wins above replacement pegged him at -0.9 fWAR, which is only the second-worst career mark of any Red Sox pitcher … in the team’s history. DRA is slightly kinder, as Ogando’s DRA-based WARP put him at 0.1, or right around replacement level.

But whether’s he’s the FIP-centered disaster or the DRA-based replacement-level pitcher, it seems as if investing more money in Ogando isn’t the best option. It’s not like this was an exceptionally down season; his cFIP in each of the last three seasons has been over 100, meaning his true talent level is less than league-average by this metric. There’s little reason to invest money in a low-upside option in the bullpen when low-upside options are in no short supply. The difference between a Jonathan Aro and Ogando is probably only $2 million. He should be non-tendered as well.

Hrm.

So with my guesses on who gets non-tendered, paired with Matt Swartz’s projections, it looks like the Sox will have to drop about $8.5 million in arbitration salaries on four bullpen pieces … and Cook is a $1.5 million wild card, barring trades. Investing in this team’s bullpen is a necessary evil, and all three of Tazawa, Kelly, and Ross could very well be above-replacement options. They’re locks. From a context-free perspective, spending $10 million of five bullpen pieces is great! Look at all the money they’re saving!

However, with all these pieces ranging from uninspiring to shruggie-guy-emoticon, saving a couple million here and leaving Cook / Varvaro / Machi off the roster is less about saving the money, and more about freeing up roster spots that could go to higher-upside or lower-risk options from trade or free agency.

In the end, that’s what Boston’s bullpen arbitration decisions are all about. There are some no-brainers here, but Boston’s choices will be keeping around a good chunk of the existing bullpen at a discount price, or opening up cash and spots for some new faces.

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Part of that re-tooling includes free agents and trades, sure … but also decisions on arbitration-eligible players. Every offseason, teams make tough arb decisions. Tender or non-tender? Go to arb court or settle before things get too testy (a tried and true Red Sox tradition)? Go year-to-year or try for a longer-term extension?

Fortunately for the Sox, this coming offseason isn’t going to posit a host of mission-critical arbitration decisions. As of this writing, the team only has six players for whom they’ll need to consider arbitration. The Sox’s long-terms commitments are a mix of really young pre-arb guys (your Mookie Betts/Xander Bogaerts/Eduardo Rodriguez types), and guys with big ol’ contracts like Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez and Rick Porcello.

No, the Red Sox’s arbitration cases will determine some roster spots on the fringes, primarily in the team’s bullpen. That’s hardly a major concern. And, of course, there’s a slight chance that one or more of these players could be gone in the next few weeks. Let’s take a look:

We’ll start with the most important player from this group — setup ace Junichi Tazawa. Tazawa’s going into his final year of arbitration, and his performance this year harkens back to his stellar run in 2012. While Tazawa isn’t a lockdown setup guy in the Wade Davis mold, he is quite consistent, and more than capable of striking out a batter per nine.

There’s no question Tazawa would have a contract tendered were he to make it to this coming offseason in a Sox uniform. The bigger question is just that — will the Sox deal him for another piece at the deadline? My gut says no, because he’s a solid contributor, and even though he’s reaching his final round of arbitration I’m not so sure he’s due for a powerful raise. Arbitrators tend to look at “traditional” stats … and for relievers, saves are still king. While Tazawa’s strikeout rate and WHIP are good, I’d imagine he’s in for a raise that would max him out near $3.5 million or so if the team and Tazawa agree to terms and avoid a hearing.

 With all that in mind, Tazawa’s a pretty useful piece for a more-than-fair contract, even through arbitration. I’d guess that Boston keeps him, wrings him dry before free agency, and then sweats a real decision on whether to try to retain him after 2016.

Daniel Nava looked like a steal coming into 2015 at a measly $1.85 million, but after a stinker of a performance this season, there could actually be an argument to dump him via non-tender and cut bait. I mean, his .192 True Average is really, really awful … even for the Sox. He wouldn’t make the Mets lineup at this point. (Just kidding, he’d be batting cleanup for the Mets or the Phillies.)

And yet … he’s another guy where I think that if he remains with the team — and I don’t think the Sox are trading him — the Red Sox will look to retain him through arbitration. Nava’s not exactly covering himself in glory this season, but it isn’t making him any more expensive either. The arbitrator probably won’t see 20-30 career homers and downright-awful 2015 performance and think “let’s give this guy a huge raise.” Nava might see a slight bump, maybe something around $2 million, and the Sox could probably still use a guy at that low of a cost. At least so long as he can get halfway back to his pre-2015-apocalypse performance.

Make all the jokes you want about Joe Kelly’s dumb-ass Cy Young prediction, but he hasn’t been a complete mess. Yes, he’s given up a boatload of runs, but his FIP (4.11) showed there was room for improvement. His future in the big leagues may be in the bullpen, but any workable starter is worth a couple million dollars per year.

Kelly is jumping up from the minimum salary into his first arbitration-eligible season, and he’s doing it with an ERA that keeps climbing and no more than two dozen wins. If Ivan Nova took home about $3.3 million last year, I think Kelly could be worth about that much coming into 2016. Do the Sox want to spend that kind of money on Joe Kelly? I’m guessing that even if Brian Johnson is the next big thing, the team could really use that kind of depth, and that they wouldn’t want to cut bait on Kelly just yet.

So, after going three-for-three on these gents, the next three arbitration cases are all relatively insignificant bullpen pieces: Alexi Ogando, Robbie Ross, and Varvaro. Ogando is a third-year arbitration-eligible guy, so he’d be the most expensive of the bunch. While I thought he could be a dynamite part of a strong bullpen, his home run issues (eight in 40+ innings) have robbed him of almost any positive value. If he’s going to earn a big raise — and he might since he’s had a nice little run of success early in his career — it may not be worth it for the team to hold him at $2 million and change.

Ross and Varvaro are, well, a nice matching pair. They both are making close to the minimum, and they’re both hovering around replacement level. Ross probably has the better pedigree, with two strong seasons in relief before stumbling in the rotation last year, and he’d be the guy I’d want to hold of the two. But I’d imagine neither are going to earn much more than a million in arbitration, and have take-it-or-leave-it written all over them. They’re more fungible than not.

So, in the end, arbitration may not be the big deal for the Sox that it can be for other teams, but the team may swing four-to-six reasonably priced players out of the process. Sure, they’d be a setup guy, a 25th-man on the bench, a backup starter and some back-of-the bullpen options, but no one is going to command a king’s ransom. The game can be won at the margins, and these marginal guys could turn out to be a terrific value at a low risk.

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