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	<title>Boston &#187; Aroldis Chapman</title>
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		<title>Joe Kelly Learned To Finish</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/08/joe-kelly-learned-to-finish/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/08/joe-kelly-learned-to-finish/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2018 13:00:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brett Cowett]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Judge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Christian Vazquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly has great stuff]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=39064</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It might have finally clicked for Joe Kelly.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last year, Joe Kelly did something that was so very emblematic of Joe Kelly&#8217;s career to that point, and at the same time, was so impressive that it got a ton of attention for the 15 seconds of fame it received.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/statcast-kelly-throws-1022-mph/c-1472394983?tid=240568594" width="540" height="304" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p style="text-align: left">102.2 miles per hour. That&#8217;s squarely in Aroldis Chapman territory. And as eye-popping as that is, there are a few key things you should notice. Firstly, had Aaron Judge not fouled it off, it would&#8217;ve been a ball. There&#8217;s no debating that. It wasn&#8217;t going to be in the zone for any umpire, even C.B. Bucknor&#8217;s. But before you tell me it was supposed to be there, let me bring up my second point: it&#8217;s way off target. Christian Vazquez sets up on the inside corner, and Kelly launches his firecracker up around Judge&#8217;s collarbone. Frankly, I&#8217;m surprised Vazquez had his glove up there in time, given the velocity and where he originally wanted it to go. Lastly, observe Judge <em>actually fouling that off</em>. If you&#8217;re throwing 102 that high and it&#8217;s still getting fouled off or hit into play, you&#8217;ve screwed up. They&#8217;re either counting on it or it&#8217;s predictable &#8212; maybe both! It&#8217;s not as bad as <a href="https://youtu.be/dkatspZe0uw" target="_blank">throwing 103 in the zone and watching your lead disappear</a>, but still, it&#8217;s pretty bad.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">That&#8217;s Joe Kelly in a nutshell. His velocity is there, the Stuff is Great, but the results you&#8217;d expect never materialized, due to either bad control or, like last year, a frustrating inability to strike guys out. Nearly a year ago to this day, Chris Teeter <a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/09/when-the-strikeout-never-comes/" target="_blank">wrote about Kelly&#8217;s lack of strikeouts</a> in these same webpages, and noted that Kelly was just one strike away from really becoming a reliable contributor in the bullpen. The ineffectiveness with two strikes really did show last year, as Kelly routinely could not turn those advantageous counts into outs. He was fine on 0-2, with a .171 opposing OBP on batters through that count. But anything more than that, and you&#8217;d be hard-pressed to find good numbers. Through 1-2 counts, over 30 percent of batters reached base. When it went to 2-2, that number jumped to 35. In full counts, Kelly allowed 25 of 51 total batters faced to reach base. He had 21 walks and seven strikeouts. That&#8217;s downright repulsive.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">So far in 2018, Kelly&#8217;s been much better. Ever since the Opening Day implosion, Kelly&#8217;s faced 49 batters, allowed six hits with one(!!) walk, and struck out 15 of them while allowing zero runs, earned or otherwise. That&#8217;s good for a 30.6 percent strikeout rate, a <em>two percent</em> walk rate, and a 1.45 FIP over that span. And he&#8217;s doing all that while still throwing as hard as he ever was. It&#8217;s seemingly the same old Joe Kelly, but what&#8217;s really going on here?</p>
<p>Pitch selection is key, so let&#8217;s start there. Go back to that video of the 102 mph bullet Kelly threw. The ending clip of that is a good slider that Judge simply has no chance on. The slider wasn&#8217;t Kelly&#8217;s go-to secondary pitch for the vast majority of 2017 &#8212; he liked using a curveball that didn&#8217;t really do much of anything. It was fairly middling in terms of results. The slider, however, raked in the whiffs.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/05/kellywhiffs.png"><img class="wp-image-39072 aligncenter" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/05/kellywhiffs-1024x683.png" alt="kellywhiffs" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">Other than August, his curveball was really bad at getting swinging strikes. Last June, he threw it 35 times and got zero whiffs, then last October he threw it 10 times with zero whiffs, and so far this month, he&#8217;s thrown it four times and gotten (surprise!) zero whiffs. At this point, you&#8217;re clamoring for him to use something, anything else. And so, Joe Kelly adjusted.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/05/kellypitches.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-39073" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/05/kellypitches-1024x683.png" alt="kellypitches" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">His slider became his best friend. Couple that with changeup that getting a swing and a miss 33 percent of the time and he&#8217;s actually got a pair of useful, potentially wipeout pitches. The changeup is an especially good development, since it seems like common sense to pair a fastball that sits 98 with a changeup &#8212; a pitch designed to look like a fastball until the last 15 feet &#8212; that averages an 11 mph difference between it and his fastball. With that kind of velocity, you could get whiffs on those two pitches alone. Add a slider in there that isn&#8217;t too shabby either, and that&#8217;s a potentially great pitch repertoire. At the very least, it&#8217;s shown to be quite effective so far in 2018, as his 11.8 percent whiff rate is the highest of his career, while his 72 percent contact rate is the lowest of his career.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">It might just be a case of Kelly being more emotive, but he seems to be pitching smarter as well, since trying to beat batters on stuff alone isn&#8217;t always a good idea. Back during the Anaheim series, the Red Sox had a plan to exploit Shohei Ohtani at the plate, and Kelly followed suit, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/kelly-ks-ohtani-in-9th/c-1955731583?tid=6479266" target="_blank">blasting a 98 mph fastball down and in</a> for a swinging strikeout. Kelly tapped his head to acknowledge a smart plan of attack &#8212; maybe a plan by Vazquez, and then executed by Kelly. That same gesture made an appearance once more in Texas, during a nerve-wracking Joey Gallo plate appearance. He blew past Gallo with a &#8212; you guessed it! &#8212; 98 mph heater high, and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/kelly-gets-gallo-swinging/c-2012601383?tid=6479266" target="_blank">did the same thing afterwards</a>. Stuff alone won&#8217;t make you a good pitcher, but stuff in the right spot? That&#8217;ll get you places.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">This isn&#8217;t going to be all optimism, obviously. Kelly has only thrown 14.1 innings so far this year, so we&#8217;re stuck dealing with a small sample size until, well, August. Then we&#8217;ve got to deal with a .212 BABIP, a 33 percent line drive rate, and a 42 percent hard-hit rate &#8212; a rise of eight percentage points from last year. The groundballs disappearing and him throwing first-pitch strikes less than 50 percent of the time are both something we need to keep eyes on. Everything here is more than a little foreboding.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">But right now, he&#8217;s striking out and walking batters at career-best rates, and finally seems to be rounding into a really good and potentially reliable late-inning arm during a point in time where the Red Sox desperately need one. It&#8217;s about time Joe Kelly started, for lack of a better term, punching people out.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>Header photo by Kelley L Cox &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Rivalry Rekindled: The Pitching</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/02/a-rivalry-rekindled-the-pitching/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/02/a-rivalry-rekindled-the-pitching/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2018 14:00:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carson Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CC Sabathia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Craig Kimbrel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Robertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dellin Betances]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Pomeranz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eduardo Rodriguez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jordan Montgomery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Luis Severino]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Masahiro Tanaka]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Barnes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Porcello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sonny Gray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tommy Kahnle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Thornburg]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=35595</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this titanic matchup, who leads in the arms race?]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week we looked at <a title="A Rivalry Rekindled: The Offense" href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/23/a-rivalry-rekindled-the-offense/">how the Red Sox offense stacked up</a> against that of the New York Yankees. There have been articles written about this, and everyone seems to come up with something slightly different. I gave the Red Sox a slight advantage, but your mileage may vary. And that’s fine. The point is the two teams are likely to be pretty close, offensively speaking. That’s only part of the story when it comes to a baseball team though. Pitching is also pretty important, so that’s what we’ll look at this week.</p>
<p>I’m going by the rotations as listed on Roster Resource, which of course may change during spring training. As for the order, I’ve organized them by their WARP projections.</p>
<h4>Rotations</h4>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline">Red Sox</span></strong>:</p>
<ol>
<li>Chris Sale (6.1)</li>
<li>David Price (2.1)</li>
<li>Drew Pomeranz (2.1)</li>
<li>Rick Porcello (1.2)</li>
<li>Eduardo Rodriguez (1.2)</li>
</ol>
<p>(12.7 total WARP)</p>
<p><em>versus</em></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline">Yankees</span></strong>:</p>
<ol>
<li>Luis Severino (4.1)</li>
<li>Sonny Gray (2.5)</li>
<li>Masahiro Tanaka (2.4)</li>
<li>Jordan Montgomery (1.0)</li>
<li>CC Sabathia (0.6)</li>
</ol>
<p>(10.6 total WARP)</p>
<p>Not unlike the two team’s lineups, their rotations aren’t too far apart in overall talent. Perhaps the Red Sox enjoy a bit more at the top of the rotation, whereas the Yankees have more overall depth. But the end result is roughly the same, as you can see from their respective WARP totals.</p>
<p>Is Luis Severino as good as Chris Sale? No, probably not, but he’s not wholly far off. Sale is the best player of either group and the one who the Red Sox hope can put them over the top, both during the regular season and in the playoffs. Severino has the potential to be that guy for the Yankees. Still, the advantage is with Sale.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C4KMX_fdFHo?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>The thing about PECOTA and really all projection systems is its innate pessimism. It’s not really even pessimism though because players get hurt all the time and age gets everyone at some point and then there’s the guys who just have bad seasons because of who knows what. That all said, it’s not difficult to expect more than PECOTA projects from a few guys on each team, and not coincidentally the two I’d expect more from are the same guys I’d point to when discussing the most pivotal pitchers of the rotation. That would be Price for the Red Sox and Gray for the Yankees. Both have been top pitchers before, as recently as 2016. In Gray’s four seasons he’s been above 4 WARP in three of them including last season, so his 2.5 projection seems a tad short. But there it is just the same.</p>
<p>Price likely has a similar issue to Gray, namely injuries. Price spent a significant number of days on the DL last season, the first time he did that in his career. The result was a one-win season after averaging six wins per over the three seasons before that. Still, the Red Sox are depending on Price this season in a way that I’m not sure fans have fully grasped. If Price gives the team 75 innings of 4.50 run ball and then exits stage left, the Red Sox are going to need a lot of quality innings from Steven Wright and/or Brian Johnson. To paraphrase the words of a former Yankee manager, that’s not what you want.</p>
<p>But if Price is healthy, he’s Boston’s second ace, and he changes the completion of the team completely. The same thing could be said for Gray, whose reputation took a hit during an injured and ineffective 2016 season. Peak Gray probably isn’t the equal of peak Price, though it seems that Gray reaching his previous heights is the more likely possibility of the two (though as of this writing both claim to be fully healthy).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cVP9cGCzdZs?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Past the top two guys, the Yankees need Tanaka’s arm to remain attached to his shoulder, possibly a difficult ask considering his previous medical history. If he’s healthy though, a caveat that should probably be applied to all pitchers, Tanaka offers what any team would look for in a third starter: namely quality and dependability. The Red Sox are more on the first of those attributes and less on the second with their third starters (yes, two) in Pomeranz and Porcello. Porcello can’t be as bad as he was last season (can he?), but he’s probably not going to win another Cy Young either. As such, sure, two wins seems perfectly adequate, even if you maybe would hope for more given his $20 million salary. Pomeranz is hitting his stride as a starter after a late start to his career, but he&#8217;s always been on the fragile side. Together they&#8217;re probably in the five-win range, which is what the Yankees will likely get out of the combination of Gray and Tanaka.</p>
<p>The back end of the Yankees rotation is C.C. Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, both of who had stronger seasons in 2017 than you’d have guessed given their respective ages and, in Sabathia’s case, everything else about him. And yet here he is again. Note that PECOTA is as unimpressed with him as you are. The Red Sox back end features the aforementioned Wright and Johnson unless, and this is the key, Eduardo Rodriguez gets healthy. Say what you will about Montgomery, but the Yankees don’t have a pitcher of Rodriguez’s quality in the back half of their rotation. If Rodriguez comes back healthy with no knee troubles, he gives the Sox rotation depth few teams can match.</p>
<p>If there is one place where New York has a step on Boston, it’s in previous injuries. Why are they important? A wise person once said the greatest predictor of future pitcher injuries is past pitcher injuries. With that as a background, the Red Sox are at greater risk with Price, Rodriguez, and deeper down, Wright and Johnson all having missed significant time in recent seasons. Only Gray fits that description with the Yankees (though Sabathia has pitched through injuries, he’s not particularly injury prone).</p>
<h4>Bullpens</h4>
<p>Predicting what will happen with bullpens is the greatest of impossibilities, like jumping across the country using only trampolines, or drinking an entire bottle of Gatorade without your tongue jumping from your mouth and running screaming down the street. The Red Sox have one of the two or three best relievers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. That&#8217;s a good start. After that, they could have a very deep pen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg splitting eighth inning duties and Matt Barnes and Joe Kelly covering the sixth and seventh. Or all those guys could spontaneously explode like Spinal Tap drummers.</p>
<p>Like the rotations, the Red Sox have that one top guy, but the Yankees have quality and more depth in their pen. And yet, Aroldis Chapman wasn’t so hot last season, and Dellin Betances wasn’t either. Both were fine overall, and very good at times, but showed real moments of shakiness. Tommy Kahnle was less than spectacular after putting up an amazing first half in Chicago, and David Robertson was good, but not amazing either. Still, those guys have track records of (mostly) excellence, so few are likely to flame out. It could easily turn into the Craig Kimbrel And That’s It Show in Boston, whereas the Yankees have too much depth and not enough Craig Kimbrel for that to occur to them.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HTviKIadB4o?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Where things stand now, the Red Sox have a slight advantage in the rotation, but when you factor in the bullpens, that lead dwindles. Like their offenses, and like the teams of 2003 and 2004, picking which one is truly better is likely a fool’s errand (thus these articles). We never know what will happen over the course of a baseball season, but often times we kinda know, right? Here I legitimately have no idea. Except to say this: even after 162 games it&#8217;ll probably be quite close.</p>
<p>Also, the Houston Astros are better than both teams.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Noah K. Murray &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Rajai Davis Was Here</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/roster-recap-rajai-davis-was-here/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/roster-recap-rajai-davis-was-here/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2018 14:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Daniel Poarch]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brock Holt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jackie Bradley Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jed Lowrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mookie Betts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rajai Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=32936</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox were graced by Rajai Davis' greatness - if only for a short time.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the 2016 World Series, Rajai Davis hit one of the most improbable home runs I&#8217;ve ever seen in my life. The owner of 55 career home runs across 1,204 games at the time, Davis somehow smacked one deep off of human baseball cannon Aroldis Chapman to tie the game for the Indians in the eighth inning. It was the first home run of his postseason career.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1210972683" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>We all know how this game turned out for the Indians. Two innings later, as Kris Bryant recorded the final out in the bottom of the 10th inning, Davis&#8217; finest moment crumbled into cruel, false hope &#8212; a historical footnote, rather than postseason legend. It really was a ridiculous home run, though.</p>
<p>It was the most interesting thing that has happened in Rajai Davis&#8217; MLB career, but the truth is that Rajai Davis just isn&#8217;t a very interesting baseball player. He&#8217;s made a career out of being not terrible, but also not great. Just useful. That season with the Indians wasn&#8217;t the best overall season of Davis&#8217; career &#8212; his 3.4 fWAR campaign with Oakland in 2009 dramatically outstrips it &#8212; but he smacked a career-high 12 regular season homers across from 43 stolen bases and maintaining generally positive performance in the outfield. His .302 wOBA wasn&#8217;t anything to write home about, but his overall package made him a fine, if replaceable, starter.</p>
<p>Davis opened last season in an anonymous Athletics lineup that consisted of Jed Lowrie and some kids. He didn&#8217;t hit particularly well, but he made it up by being a negative in the outfield and falling off as a baserunner. After Jackie Bradley Jr. sprained his thumb, the Red Sox traded 18-year-old Rafael Rincones (who wasn&#8217;t a top-30 guy in the farm system) for him.  Now, I&#8217;m tasked with writing something interesting about the decisively uninteresting Rajai Davis and his decisively uninteresting Red Sox tenure.</p>
<p>With that in mind, here is every single game of Rajai Davis&#8217; legendary Red Sox career. We have been blessed by his presence, and I shall never forget it.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 1: Red Sox 6, Indians 13</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-1, K</h4>
<p>Rajai Davis&#8217; Red Sox debut came in a time of crisis, down seven runs as Mookie Betts exited the game in the bottom of the seventh inning with a sore knee. His only opportunity to hit would come in the top of the 9th. He struck out looking. You&#8217;ll get &#8216;em next time, champ.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 2: Red Sox 3, Orioles 16</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-4</h4>
<p>The first start of Rajai Davis&#8217; Red Sox career would come at home against the Orioles. Playing centerfield in relief of the injured Jackie Bradley Jr., Davis batted eighth in the order and was quite a bit more active. Davis singled in the bottom of the fifth off Jeremy Hellickson. The stress of Davis&#8217; presence on first base must have been too much for Hellickson, as he would threw a wild pitch two batters later and allow Davis to take second. Unfortunately, that batter was the fan who pretended to be Brock Holt all of last season, and he would ground out to end the inning.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the seventh, Davis&#8217; tremendous offensive pressure would allow him to take a base yet again &#8212; shortstop Tim Beckham, fearful of his raw speed, committed a throwing error to first, leaving Davis safe. Davis would claim second once again on a fielder&#8217;s indifference. It&#8217;s not like catcher Welington Castillo had a prayer of throwing out Rajai Davis anyways.</p>
<p>The Red Sox would lose by 13.</p>
<h4>Game 3: Red Sox 1, Orioles 2</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-4, K, CS</h4>
<p>After a well-earned night off for his tremendous exertion in the first Baltimore game, Rajai Davis &#8211; Mr. Consistency, you could call him &#8211; went 1-of-4 against the Orioles once again. He reached on an infield single in the bottom of the fourth inning, but was caught stealing. Hubris defeats even the greatest of us.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 4: Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 0</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 2-4, 2 R, 2 SB</h4>
<p>Spoiler-alert: this is Rajai Davis&#8217; greatest game in a Boston uniform &#8212; he picked up 22 percent of his total hits with the Red Sox in this game, as well as 66 percent of his stolen bases. Davis singled in the top of the sixth and eighth innings, and each time stole second before coming around to score. He also hit leadoff, because 2017 John Farrell deployed lineups as his own form of abstract art.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1786110483" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<h4>Game 5: Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 1</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-4, BB, 3 K</h4>
<p>For the sake of Rajai Davis, we won&#8217;t discuss this game. We have to respect our living legends.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 6: Red Sox 2, Yankees 6</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-3, 2 K</h4>
<p>Another bump in the road to baseball immortality for Rajai Davis, who suffered the ignominy of being subbed out for the impostor wearing Brock Holt&#8217;s skin after two strikeouts. This was also the game where C.C. Sabathia got mad at the Red Sox for bunting once. Fun times.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Games 7-13:</h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left">Rajai Davis: 0-5, 2 K, R</h4>
<p>With Jackie Bradley returned from the disabled list, Rajai Davis was relegated to the bench. Over this stretch of time &#8212; roughly half of September &#8212; Davis primarily appeared as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. He did not record a hit or a stolen base. Scored a run, though!</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 14: Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 9</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-1, 2B, RBI, R</h4>
<p>Woah! Rajai Davis extra base hit! Davis showcased his clutch gene in this game, pinch-hitting in the bottom of the eighth inning down seven runs and helping spark a Sox rally. Davis doubled home Chris Young and blazed in a run of his own off a single from Hanley Ramirez. Those would be the last Red Sox runs of the game, however.</p>
<p>Fun fact: Rajai Davis&#8217; wRC+ for this game was 718. Mike Trout&#8217;s career wRC+ is 169. Get bent, Mike.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1851432483" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<h4>Game 15: Red Sox 10, Blue Jays 7</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 2-4, 2B, 2 R, RBI, SB</h4>
<p>Rajai Davis&#8217; Power Explosion continued into the following day, as Davis would blast another double against Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada and his formidable 4.98 ERA. This was a showcase of the all-around package we&#8217;ve come to expect from Rajai Davis year-in and year-out: two runs, an RBI, a stolen base, and an extra base hit.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 16: Red Sox 2, Astros 3</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-3, K, R</h4>
<h4>Game 17: Red Sox 3, Astros 4</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 1-4, K</h4>
<p>The final three games of Rajai Davis&#8217; storied Red Sox career would happen to come against the Houston Astros. The first two came in the final series of the regular season, and saw Davis pick up a base hit in each. You could say this made him something of an Astro-killer. It might not be true, but you <em>could</em> say it.</p>
<hr />
<h4>Game 18: Red Sox 2, Astros 8</h4>
<h4>Rajai Davis: 0-0</h4>
<p>Shockingly, the Red Sox did not give Davis or his career playoff line of .175/.209/.275 much of an opportunity in October. Davis made his only appearance of the series in the second game in relief of Mookie Betts in right field, when Betts tweaked his wrist in the eighth inning. Davis did not hit a dramatic home run, and in fact, did not even record a plate appearance. Thus ended his Red Sox career. We shall never see his like again.</p>
<hr />
<h4>What Went Right:</h4>
<p>The Red Sox brought Rajai Davis in to fill an outfield spot while Jackie Bradley Jr. recovered from a sprained thumb. He may have hit terribly, graded negatively in the field, and only swiped three bases, but he was undeniably very good at existing. So, there&#8217;s that.</p>
<h4>What Went Wrong:</h4>
<p>Rajai Davis did not hit for the cycle even a single time.</p>
<h4>What to Expect:</h4>
<p>At some point, a team will decide they need somebody to run a whole bunch. Rajai Davis will heroically answer the call.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Kevin Sousa &#8212; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Roster Recap: Rafael Devers&#8217; Bright Future</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/10/roster-recap-rafael-devers-bright-future/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/10/roster-recap-rafael-devers-bright-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 13:00:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Groome]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Devers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=29689</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Red Sox found their third baseman of the future.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Red Sox minor league system currently stands on the barren side. Boston&#8217;s top prospect is currently Jason Groome, and while he&#8217;s a promising starting pitcher to be sure, Groome is just a year out of high school and in the low minors with injury issues. That’s not great. But widen the lens a bit, and you see why Groome is the top dude: because Rafael Devers made the major leagues at the age of 20.</p>
<h4>What went right in 2017</h4>
<p>It’s not hyperbolic to say that Devers represents the rare case of a player who did everything right in 2017. He started the year in Double-A, an important step up from 2016 where he finished the season at High-A Salem. That did not stop him from crushing it there, hitting .300/.369(nice!)/.575 with 18 homers and 40 extra base hits in 322 plate appearances. He was then called up to Triple-A Pawtucket where he hit .400/.447/.600, though it was only in 38 plate appearances because he was then called up to Boston. In Boston, Devers showed tantalizing power, something the big league club was sorely lacking, and a knack for the dramatic. Recall the home run off Aroldis Chapman in the top of the ninth inning to tie an important game at Yankee Stadium.</p>
<p>Actually, let’s all take a moment to recall that…</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mLD9Zp0QZKI?start=534" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://youtu.be/dkatspZe0uw" target="_blank">That. Was. Amazing.</a></p>
<p>But that wasn’t the only huge moment Devers had in 2017! Recall in the ALDS when, down two runs in the ninth inning (I smell trend!), Devers hit an inside-the-park home run to make it a one run game. Sadly the Sox weren’t able to follow his lead and they lost the series, but Devers gave them a chance when they needed it the most, even if they didn’t take advantage.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cZfqO1V1w0U?rel=0" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>On the whole, Devers’ numbers are of a player whose bat belongs at the major league level, even at his young age. He never appeared overmatched at the plate, his strikeout rate is only marginally inflated from what he posted in the minor leagues, and his plate patience and power were consistent with his (very good) minor league numbers. That is saying something considering the massive jump in the level of competition he experienced repeatedly over the course of the 2017 season. In the end, Devers made the majors years before he was expected to, and performed quite well once there.</p>
<h4>What went wrong in 2017</h4>
<p>You can’t really and fairly say anything went wrong for Devers in 2017 given where he came from and the different levels he advanced past. But if we are to nitpick a bit, Devers’ meteoric rise from the Red Sox third baseman of the future in the deep minors to Red Sox third baseman of the present did mask a few aspects of his game that might not be major league ready. The most prominent on that list is his fielding. Devers has a strong arm, certainly strong enough for third base, and he has the quick reflexes and instincts necessary to play the position at a high level, but there was some roughness around the edges. We saw it mostly in bad throws on what should have been routine outs, often due to bad or lazy footwork, but there were a few mental mistakes thrown in as well. None of this is fatal. Frankly, it isn’t surprising for a player Devers’ age and experience level, and with work it should be entirely correctable.</p>
<h4>What to expect in 2018</h4>
<p>Improvement. It’s difficult to say exactly what kind because as we know development as a whole isn’t linear, but generally speaking, improvement. With more time at third and more exposure to major league coaching, Devers should cut down on the more glaring mistakes defensively. As he continues to physically mature and starts to master major league pitching (to the extent major league pitching can ever be mastered), his offense should become more productive as well.</p>
<p>There is a possibility Devers could truly break out in 2018 and become the middle-of-the-order bat the Red Sox see in him a few years in the future. He has the bat speed, patience, and power to be ‘that guy,’ probably if we’re being honest, more so than any of the excellent players the Red Sox minor league system has graduated over the last few seasons. Often young players need an adjustment season, especially (again) at Devers’ age, so it may not all come together in 2018. But even if it doesn’t, watching Devers grow will be yet another reason to enjoy Red Sox baseball in 2018.</p>
<p><em>Photo by Bob DeChiara &#8211; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>2017 Offseason Oracle: Pairing Price and Sale</title>
		<link>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/2017-offseason-oracle-pairing-price-and-sale/</link>
		<comments>http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/2017-offseason-oracle-pairing-price-and-sale/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Nov 2016 11:00:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matthew Kory]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2017 Offseason Oracle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aroldis Chapman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carlos Beltran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Sale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Dombrowski]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenley Jansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Thornburg]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10334</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In which Matt becomes the first person to note that the Red Sox could acquire Chris Sale.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Welcome to the 2017 Offseason Oracle, a brief series in which your favorite BP Boston authors will give their educated guesses as to how the Red Sox’s offseason will shake down. Every author will answer the following four questions and give a projected Opening Day roster. Will we all be wrong? Yep! Should it be fun? Yes to that, too. Enjoy!</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p2">It’s shaping up to be the most sedate offseason in a long while in Boston. The roster looks pretty set, much of the depth in the farm system has been spent, and the stable of youth on the Major League roster begs to be left alone to coalesce into a consistent championship core. Will Dave Dombrowski know enough to let well enough alone? Probably not! Let’s answer some questions!</p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p2">
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1"><b>How will the Red Sox replace David Ortiz&#8217;s production?: </b></span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">The easy answer is to sign Edwin Encarnacion. The more I think about that, the more I hate it. Encarnacion is older (he’ll be 34), he’s a big name which will make him even more expensive, and signing him will cost extreme amounts of money and Boston’s first-round draft pick. The team is poised to take a step backwards offensively next season if for no other reason than regression to the mean, but this seems like killing an ant with a grenade launcher. Unfortunately for the future of the franchise, as we’ve seen over the past year, this is Dombrowski’s style. I’d prefer the team saved with an eye towards the huge 2018 free agent market and looked to a shorter-term solution like Carlos Beltran. He’s a name who has been getting some press recently, so it’s possible he requires two years rather than one, but even if so, he’s going to get a pittance compared to Encarnacion, and he won’t cost a draft pick. So I’ll cross my fingers and predict that.</span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">However, if they’re going to go big, go really big and explore dealing for Joey Votto. He’s on a huge long term contract ($25 million annually until 2023 when he’ll be 39), but he’s also one of the best hitters in the game. He’s been at least a six win player by WARP every year but one since 2010. As we’ve seen with Ortiz and even Beltran, elite offensive players can maintain productivity into their late 30s (considering his late blossoming I’m less convinced this applies to Encarnacion). Votto is the rare player who can replace Ortiz’s on-field production one-for-one, and given their current state it’s entirely possible the Reds would be open to dealing him. He’d be perfect to plug into the middle of the Red Sox lineup. Imagine a three-four-five of Votto-Betts-Ramirez! Yummy.</span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1">But still, the guess here is just Beltran.</p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1"><b>How will the Red Sox bolster the bullpen?:</b></span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">Here’s another opportunity for Dombrowski to slam down a nail with a sledge hammer. He could throw $100 million (or more!) at Kenley Jansen but, again, I’d rather save that money and buy some portion of Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw or Bryce Harper a year down the line. The Red Sox pen could undoubtedly use some reinforcements, but the smart clubs either draft Jansen, or make the Andrew Millers of the world from failed starting pitchers. That doesn’t seem to be Dombrowski’s style, though, so expect the Red Sox to be heavily involved in the Jansen/Aroldis Chapman rumors. That said, in the end it’s going to be too heavy for even Dombrowski considering he already has Craig Kimbrel in the closer’s role, so expect a trade or two. Perhaps a sizable prospect package for a middle reliever (just enough to cause Red Sox Twitter to poop their collective pants) and/or a player like Clay Buchholz for a seventh-inning guy. Perhaps, dare I dream, a player like Tyler Thornburg from the Brewers. It won’t be the best use of resources, but it’ll plug the leak for another season. </span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1"><b>Will the Red Sox add to the rotation? If so, how?: </b></span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">For the record, I like the Red Sox rotation as it is. Porcello probably won’t be as effective as he was in 2016 but David Price should be better. Also, I expect more from Eduardo Rodriguez, and Drew Pomeranz should be around for the whole season. That’s a strong top four. And I didn’t even mention Steven Wright or Clay Buchholz, two more-than-capable fifth starters. Really, there’s no reason to spend the kind of prospect/player capital necessary to acquire a Jose Quintana or Chris Sale, but given the guy in charge, that kind of subtlety need not apply. </span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">So, given that, one advantage to adding a free agent like Encarnacion or Beltran is all the big prospects can be devoted to upgrading the rotation. We recall last season when Chris Sale was heavily rumored to be available, and after the way the White Sox season finished, it seems he’ll at least be placed on the market to see what offers are available. We’re not breaking any news by saying Dombrowski loves Sale. In fairness, who doesn’t? Surely Dombrowski is intrigued by bludgeoning the AL East with a Sale-Price-Porcello top of the rotation. And really, it sounds fantastic. The issue is how much it’ll cost and what that cost will be to the future of the franchise. That’s the type of move I’d expect though. A big name for big prospects. </span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1"><b>Will the Red Sox trade more elite prospects? If so, for what/who?: </b> </span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">Probably is the correct answer. Dombrowski is the antithesis of a prospect hugger, so for the right player (Chris Sale) he won’t be afraid to move a Yoan Moncada whereas most GMs would be terrified (rightly) that they’d just traded away the best and cheapest seasons of a young Alex Rodriguez. When it comes to Moncada specifically, it’s also worth noting, for as impressive as he’s been in the minors and as touted as he is (probably the number one prospect in baseball), Dombrowski didn’t scout or sign him. Moncada is the old GM’s guy. The vast millions spent on bringing him in were fought for and spent on Ben Cherington’s watch, so while Cherington might be all in on Moncada making an impact in Boston had he stayed with the organization, Dombrowski doesn’t have that burden. He sees Moncada as another asset in his prospect cabinet, another way to improve the Major League roster right now. That’s not to say he’ll give Moncada away, but with Dave Dombrowski, there are no untouchables in the minor leagues. If Chris Sale is available, and I expect he will be for the right offer, Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox will be first in line with Yoan Moncada the primary bait. Perhaps a package of Moncada, Mauricio Dubon and Eduardo Rodriguez would peak the White Sox interest. </span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1"><b>Miscellaneous Thoughts: </b></span></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><span class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-s1">Biggest Acquisition: Chris Sale<br />
</span>Biggest Departure: Yoan Moncada, Clay Buchholz<br />
Biggest Surprise: Chris Sale!!!</p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><a href="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-07-at-9.06.24-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-10335" src="http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2016/11/Screen-Shot-2016-11-07-at-9.06.24-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016-11-07 at 9.06.24 PM" width="822" height="214" /></a></p>
<p class="m_8028726199951099116gmail-p1"><em>Top photo by David Banks II/USA Today Sports Images</em></p>
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