Regardless of the exact root of Smith’s injury, it has limited him to only 10.2 major league innings in a Red Sox uniform: 2.2 in May, 2016, 6.2 in September, 2017, 1.1 in October, 2017 (postseason). As such, he is still something of a mystery for the 2018 roster. It is difficult to anticipate how any pitcher will respond to Tommy John Surgery; Smith is no exception. Will he regain his 2015 form? Can he maintain it for a whole season? Across multiple seasons? This last question can wait for now, but, even with the uncertainty that surrounds Smith, he is likely to enter the 2018 season as one of the Red Sox’s two primary setup men in front of Craig Kimbrel. That is an important role for a guy who hasn’t really played in two years.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

There is not a lot to say about a guy who didn’t play very much, but it is worth noting that in his few innings, Smith was solid. He allowed only one run, struck out a little over a quarter of the batters he faced, and generally had both of his pitches working.

But the important part of his 2017 is that he got back on the field. Over the last decade or so, the number of pitchers requiring Tommy John Surgery and the success rate of the surgery has pushed us to dismiss (or at least ignore) the difficulty involved in returning to pitch in the major leagues after the procedure. When news breaks that a guy is putting his elbow under the knife, we take for granted he will be gone from the team for 18-ish months and then return ready to go, maybe even throwing harder than before the surgery. I know I’m guilty of this, as there were many days on which I advised David Price from my couch to get the surgery ‘over with’. Over with? What a ridiculous thing to suggest. While the success rate is high, it is not a magical guarantee. The player has to work hard, physically and mentally, just to get back, let alone perform well. The good news is that Smith checked both of those boxes in 2017, which must give him confidence for 2018.

WHAT WENT WRONG

To pick a nit – and immediately descend from the high horse I climbed on in the previous section – it did take Smith longer than anticipated to get back on the field this year. This is not necessarily a bad thing. I am no proponent of rushing player’s back from injury, but his rehab taking longer than expected can be classified as something that went wrong for him last year. He had a setback or two during his recovery and missed the expected return of late July/early August by about six weeks.

I suppose it is worth mentioning that while Smith pitched well in his eight appearances during the regular season, his two appearances in the ALDS were less than stellar. In Game Two he relieved Drew Pomeranz in the bottom of the third, walked the first two batters he faced before Josh Reddick hit a 93mph rocket at Deven Marrero for the first out of the inning. That was the end of Smith’s day. In Game Three he got the ball in the ninth inning with the Red Sox leading 10-3. He gave up two singles (only one of which was hit well), but induced a double-play and struck out Carlos Correa to end the game. It was not a terrible outing, but it was not clean and definitely not the sort of thing you want to see from one of the team’s to-be premier relievers. But again, this is mostly picking a nit. I’m not really worried that his 1.1 postseason innings were imperfect.

WHAT TO EXPECT

It is pretty simple: to start the year, Smith will be slotted into a role at the backend of the bullpen. Along with Tyler Thornburg and Craig Kimbrel, Smith will form Alex Cora’s primary trio of high-leverage relievers. On paper that is formidable, but the question marks looming over Smith and Thornburg leave us in an uncomfortable wait-and-see situation. If Smith pitches well and Kimbrel needs to miss time, Smith could even grab the capital-C closer role – with the critical caveat that we don’t yet know how Cora will run the bullpen. I think it is also worth noting that this is the last year on Kimbrel’s contract. Kimbrel is an elite reliever, but I suspect the Red Sox will be hesitant to shell out what a then-31-year-old Kimbrel is going to demand in free agency. So with a strong 2018 season, Smith can push himself further along the inside track to the spotlight and money that come with finishing games for the Boston Red Sox.

Photo by Patrick McDermott – USA TODAY Sports

Amidst all of that, there was interesting player development: the oft-vilified David Price threw a couple of bullpen sessions, has been scheduled for a sim-game, and appears to be on track for getting back with the team. This got me wondering about what Price’s role will be going forward and how to best fit him onto a playoff roster.

He could take the ball and perform like his old, dominant self for seven-ish innings four or five times next month, but what is the likelihood of that? From my perspective, it is low.

I would love to see a healthy David Price start games for the Red Sox before this season is out, but given his current status, it seems unlikely that he will have enough time to get stretched out for a start before the postseason. The idea of Price’s first start since July 22 coming in a potentially pivotal playoff game concerns me. Of course, he could take the ball and perform like his old, dominant self for seven-ish innings four or five times next month, but what is the likelihood of that? From my perspective, it is low. This estimation has nothing to do with the ridiculous idea that he is bound to wilt when the calendar turns to October. Rather, it comes from the fact that he has been dealing with a balky elbow since March, and owing to that, hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitch in six weeks. As such, I think the better course of action is to move away from getting Price ready for a spot in the rotation and toward preparing him for a role as a reliever.

With a little under a month to go before the playoffs start, Price has plenty of time to get his arm and mindset ready for a mid-game jog to the mound from right field and, barring any further setbacks in his rehab, he should get an opportunity to actually do so a few times in real, live games. Price’s arsenal is well-suited for life as a one-or-two-inning reliever. Generally, relievers possess a strong fastball and at least one secondary offering that keeps hitters from sitting on the hard stuff all night. Price checks both of these boxes. He still runs his four-seamer/sinker into the mid-90s, and plays off it with his cutter and changeup to keep hitters off balance and generate swings and misses. I could also talk about Price’s experience as a dominating reliever, including playoff action (as the 2008 Red Sox likely remember). I suppose those early days of his career provide an experience from which Price could draw something, but it was 15.1 innings, ten years ago, so I doubt it has much bearing on how he might fare as a reliever in 2017.

Moving Price to a relief role brings the advantages of limiting his workload (and potential stress on the elbow), prevents him from worrying about pacing himself, and keeps him from having to navigate a lineup multiple times, which has been an issue in his starts this year. First time through the order Price has held opponents to a .568 OPS. That ranks 20th best among the 179 starters who have at least 90 batters faced, and places him alongside guys like Jimmy Nelson, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray. Decent company to have. The problem is that the second time through the order opposing batters have knocked Price around to the tune of a .798 OPS, which ranks 99th among the 177 starters who have faced at least 90 batters the second time through. Any guesses at who leads the way in OPS-against the second time through the order (with at least 90 batters faced)? The answer is Doug Fister at .487. Fister has been a real gem for the Red Sox. By OPS-against, Fister (-.416), Rick Porcello (-.072), Eduardo Rodriguez (-.082), and Drew Pomeranz (-.156) have all been better the second time through the order, while Chris Sale has been slightly worse (.071). But Sale is still holding opponents to a comically low .581 OPS in their second trip, so we needn’t be worrying too much about him. In any case, it seems as though keeping Price from facing a lineup multiple times could be a valuable strategy to undertake.

It is worth noting that the 230 point jump in OPS Price has surrendered this year while working a lineup for the second time is based on a small number of batters faced and is not typical for him. For his career, Price has allowed a .655 OPS the first time through the order and a .682 OPS the second time. Generally, relying on career numbers is better practice, but it is safe to say that Price’s 2017 is different because of the elbow issue and therefore evaluating it separately, albeit cautiously, could be informative.

So what might Price look like as a reliever? As noted above, his outings in 2008 as a reliever likely provide little usable information. So to get a sense of how Price’s numbers could change with a move to the bullpen we can employ Tom Tango’s Rule of 17. Derived from almost four decades of data, this rule states that as a reliever BABIP is 17 points lower, strikeout rate is 17% higher, home runs per contact is 17% lower, and walk rate remains the same. For Price this would give something like the following:

I give the numbers based off of Price’s career numbers and 2017-only numbers because like I said, 2017 stands out as being different due to the issue with his elbow. Regardless of the baseline used, those are some pretty attractive numbers. Add a David Price pitching with rates like those to a bullpen with Craig Kimbrel, Addison Reed, Brandon Workman, and Carson Smith, and you are going to give opposing teams fits from the sixth inning on. This is especially so in the playoffs where the numerous off-days and greater sense of urgency pushes the idea of more liberal and creative use of elite relievers, as Terry Francona, Joe Maddon, and Dave Roberts successfully demonstrated last year. Obviously Price’s elbow situation will present some limits on his use, but 30-50 pitch outings once or twice every three days doesn’t seem unreasonable.

I am not the first person to suggest moving Price into a relief role. Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald made it a couple of weeks ago, and a couple of the great BP Boston fellas discussed it with Alex Speier on the most recent episode of The Red Seat podcast. Regardless of who came first with the idea, I would like to see the Red Sox put it into practice. Perhaps this is already the case and they are just being secretive to prevent Price from having to answer a bunch of questions about a role change. Probably need one of them special Apple Watches to find out their true plans. Kidding aside, this season Price has gone to rather extreme lengths to demonstrate his desire to be there for his teammates and to be a good teammate. From my standpoint, accepting and even pushing for a role in the bullpen for the playoffs would be a great example of this.

Photo by Kirby Lee – USA TODAY Sports

Coming off a rough showing in the major leagues in 2015 and an uneven 2016 Spring Training, Heath Hembree did not make the Red Sox Opening Day roster. At that point, and despite his once being projected as a future closer, it was simply not at all clear what value he could provide at the big league level. Fortunately, he did not have to wait long to get an opportunity to demonstrate it. He was called to Boston at the end of April, pitched well enough over the course of the season to earn John Farrell’s trust, and, with the exception of a couple of return stints in Pawtucket, was a supporting member of the Red Sox’s bullpen last year.

For the coming season, there is little doubt that he will open the season with Boston. This is not necessarily because he is clearly one of the seven best options the Red Sox have for their bullpen, so much as it is because he is a pretty good middle reliever – which is a needed role – who is out of options. If Hembree were to be placed on waivers (in an effort to get him to Pawtucket) he would certainly be nabbed by another organization. As such, the Red Sox are somewhat forced to give him another go in their bullpen and hope he proves useful. If he pitches poorly (or someone else in Pawtucket is pitching better) then the risk of losing him through the waiver process becomes easier to accept. The looming presence of these roster transactions means that regardless of the game situation, Hembree will be pitching under difficult circumstances.

What Went Right in 2016

A lot, actually. Statistically he improved in almost every category relative to his ugly 2015 showing. He doubled his innings, all the while increasing his strikeout rate, decreasing his walk rate, decreasing his home run rate, increasing his groundball rate, and on and on. And yet, while those personal improvements across the board were great, by DRA he was still a below average pitcher, just not as below average as he was in 2015. Small victories, folks.

Hembree pitching better, and at a mostly tolerable level, allowed Farrell to use him in a wide-ranging role. Role is probably the wrong word, as he did not really have a defined role, other than the absence of one. He entered games pretty much any time after the third inning – of his 51.0 innings, 17.2 came in innings 4-6, 24.2 came in innings 7-9 – and would often get more than an inning of work. In fact, half of his appearances involved him getting at least four outs. Just over half of his innings (27.2) came when the team was behind, and a little under a third came when they were ahead (15.1); a pattern which nearly matches the breakdown of his innings by leverage: mostly low, some medium, fewer high. Ok. I think you get the picture. Hembree was used at any point in any game. His ability to be used this way undoubtedly saved Farrell from pushing his starter a batter or two too many, and/or using other (read: more important) bullpen arms. All told, Hembree’s flexibility likely had a positive knock-on effect on the rest of the pitching staff, contributing indirectly to their effectiveness.

What Went Wrong in 2016

As much as Hembree was better than he was in 2015 and provided great flexibility to the team, as noted, he was still a below average pitcher. The 2.65 ERA looks nice, but his FIP was more than a run worse (3.79), and his 4.97 DRA and 109 cFIP also undermine the likelihood that his ERA will hold at a sub-3.00-level going forward.

Hembree’s standout issue in 2016 was opposing left-handed hitters. While he held righties to a .200/.255/.336 line, righties beat him up for a .338/.397/.493 line. That is a 299-point difference in OPS. Comically bad. Now, it should be mentioned that there was a large discrepancy in his BABIP against between lefties and righties, but there was also a large discrepancy in hard hit rate, so we shouldn’t just dismiss the ridiculously large platoon split as being a result of BABIP. Lefties hit the ball hard more often than righties did, and that will tend to turn into good things (for the batter). I dug around Hembree’s Brooks Baseball page to try and find an explanation for his dramatic split, but there wasn’t any particular aspect of his repertoire that was specifically worse against left-handed hitters. It was basically all worse against lefties. They slugged his fastball and slider (his most frequently thrown pitches) more than did righties, while his curveball came out even (at an ugly .500 SLG-against).

Before overreacting too much to this split, the small sample siren should blare, as Hembree only faced 78 left-handed batters last year. That is not enough to know if he is actually unable to get lefties out. He may always have trouble, but it seems unlikely that this .299 OPS split is going to be typical for him. Rather, I expect it to regress back to a league-averagish level. Of course if it does not, this sort of pronounced difficulty with left-handed opponents will really limit his ability to maintain a role as a multi-inning, flexible relief option. He managed it (mostly) for a season, but if it turns out that lefties just crush him, he should not be left in games to face lefties, especially in medium-to-high leverage moments. This really undoes the value he appears to present.

Outlook for 2017

It is pretty simple: if Hembree pitches well — might even need to bump that to really well — he will stay in Boston and do the things he did for them in 2016. If not, he will be packing up his things and heading to start life with his third organization. I suppose he could end up back in Pawtucket, but it seems much more likely that somebody will claim him off waivers and give him a shot in their bullpen. Of course even that simple outlook changes once Carson Smith is ready to come back, or some other pitcher (e.g., Brian Johnson, Noe Ramirez, Chandler Shepherd, Kyle Kendrick) pitches well enough to take Hembree’s spot. Life as a fringy-middle-reliever can be cruel.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The wheeling and dealing of the offseason is done for the Red Sox and realistically only two positions (catcher, third base) will involve any sort of competition in the Spring, so the discussion of how to best align the players is worth starting. Today, the batting order. Criticizing a batting order for any one game is likely a bit much – playoffs are a different animal – but consistently using sub-optimal lineups can amount to one or two fewer wins over the course of the season. So making an effort to optimize the lineup, which is fairly simple and cheap, is a worthwhile endeavour. You, smart reader of this website, probably already know all this, but I felt the need to further justify discussing the batting order in January. In any case, the batting order comes up because Red Sox manager John Farrell recently discussed it.

In an interview on WEEI, Farrell said that he is considering Andrew Benintendi for the number two spot in the lineup. That seems like a dramatic move for a player who started last year in Double-A. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal examined this idea, outlining how Benintendi’s skillset would work at the top of the order and how having him there would break up the four right-handed batters (i.e., Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Hanley Ramirez) that are likely to be at the top.

I like the idea of having Benintendi at the top of the order for the reasons MacPherson cites in his article, but I would not hit him second. I would drop him one spot to hit him third. Specifically, here is how I would write out the lineups:

Having Benintendi hit third rather than second may seem minor, but it keeps Betts, the team’s best hitter, in the all-important second spot, splits the right-handed hitters at the top of the order evenly, and prevents overloading things with left-handed hitters in the six through nine spots.

There are two other aspects worth noting about these suggested lineups. First, Pablo Sandoval is considered a switch-hitter, even though that aspect of his game is not necessarily known at this point. His ability to hit right-handed means that hitting him between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mitch Moreland avoids having back-to-back lefties, thereby making life a little more difficult for opposing managers who want to matchup relievers later in the game. Second, if/when Blake Swihart assumes the primary catching duties, I would slot him into the nine spot currently occupied by Sandy Leon, but I can see the case for flipping him with Sandoval if his offense takes off the way some people think it will.

Ok. I suspect that’s enough lineup talk for now.

Quick Hits

In some respects this offseason has been strange. The most prominent example of this is the number of sluggers who remain unsigned (e.g., Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter) and how the market for those who have signed(e.g., Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista) collapsed. Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has more on how the league is valuing sluggers differently than they have in the past. The availability of these offensive threats has Brian MacPherson wondering if the Red Sox moved too quickly in acquiring Mitch Moreland. Perhaps, but I think the team’s desire to get under the luxury tax threshold ruled out all of the marquee names.

As currently constituted, the Red Sox have six candidates for the five starting rotation spots. Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello will certainly hold three of the five spots. The last two are available for Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright to take. On a recent episode of Buster Olney’s Baseball Tonight podcast, Dave Dombroski suggested that Wright and Pomeranz have the inside line. Nick Friar of CSNNE.com examines each possible pairing for the remaining spots and suggests that Dombrowski’s preference is not the best option. Who knows how strongly Dombrowski feels that the spots are Wright and Pomeranz’s to lose. Maybe this was just an old-school-tactic of using the media to try and light a fire under Rodriguez.

While questions remain in the rotation, the starting lineups are pretty much set – well, maybe not at catcher. At MLB.com, Ian Browne has been writing an Around the Horn series that looks at each area of the Red Sox. He started with the relatively unclear status of the catching position, then moved onto the corner infield spots and middle infielders, and finally the Baby Bs in the outfield. The series is definitely worth checking out.

An aspect of the Red Sox organization that likely helped their young core transition to the major league level is the Rookie Development Program that they run. This program is intended to familiarize players expected to reach the big leagues in the near future (~18 months) with members of the front office, the Red Sox coaching staff, and the city of Boston. Alex Speier has details on the eight players invited to the program this year, which includes Rafael Devers, Sam Travis and a bunch of relievers.

Speaking of development, Rusney Castillo – remember him? – is still in the organization and, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, might be back in the mix. This suggestion comes as a result of Castillo’s strong performance with Alex Cora’s team in the Puerto Rico Winter League. While the outfielders at the big league level are established, a solid Spring Training could earn Castillo an opportunity to start in Pawtucket and/or pique the interest of another organization.

Much has been written about the overhauling of the Red Sox bullpen. Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Brad Ziegler are gone. Tyler Thornburg has been added and Joe Kelly has permanently shifted his focus to life as a reliever. Another player who many, including myself, are counting on to provide strong innings out of the bullpen is Carson Smith. Smith is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and as such is not expected to be back with the Red Sox before mid-season. But, as Matt Collins, managing editor (congratulations, Matt!) of Over the Monster, reminds us, coming back from Tommy John surgery is no guarantee. Ideally Smith is more Nate Jones than Bobby Parnell.

Finally, do you want to know what baseball-analytics-legend and Red Sox Senior Advisor Bill James thinks of the 2017 team? Last week he talked to Brian Kenny on MLB Now about that very thing, check out their discussion here.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

After yesterday’s trade of Clay Buchholz, the Red Sox appear to be left with six viable candidates for the five starting rotation spots: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, and Steven Wright. Those first three are locks to be in the major league rotation, Rodriguez will be in a rotation, whether Boston or Pawtucket remains to be seen, and the last two have potential as bullpen options or even trade pieces; although after the Buchholz trade I don’t think they will be trading any more of these guys. Pomeranz is reportedly a target of the Seattle Mariners and due to his clearly high upside, Rodriguez would likely bring a substantial return, but these guys will be in-house projects for the foreseeable future. At MLB.com, Ian Browne weighed the pros and cons of keeping and trading each of Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright and Buchholz. Browne’s case for dealing Buchholz was largely the salary related advantages, which appears to have been the factor that made it happen.

While there were certainly positive aspects of trading one or more of these guys, I think the best move was to hold onto the depth – at least for now. It would take some juggling, as only Rodriguez has options remaining, but seasons tend to present circumstances that require having more than five (or even six) major league caliber starters. Brian Johnson, who will likely start the year at Pawtucket, is another player who is looking to join the major league rotation, but he is working his way back from issues related to anxiety and there remain questions about the health of his elbow. The other options at Pawtucket are Henry Owens and Roenis Elias, but neither has shown the consistent effectiveness required to engender confidence in them. So keeping the depth would have proven useful, and if not, one or two of these players (even Buchholz) could be dealt in the Spring, or even in-season to improve the club in other areas. I don’t understand the rush to get it done now.

Behind the starting rotation, the Red Sox’s bullpen will look quite different from what it did in 2016 and previous years. Koji Uehara, who Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe wants us to remember was so important to the team over the last four seasons, is now a Cub, and Junichi Tazawa signed a multi-year deal with the Marlins a day before short-lived, but really effective, Red Sox Brad Ziegler did. That means the bulk of the 2016 high-leverage relief group is gone. Craig Kimbrel is still lurking at the end of games, but the path to him will be different. For 2017, the high-leverage group in front of Kimbrel will feature newly acquired Tyler Thornburg, Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and eventually Carson Smith. The rest of the bullpen will be a flexible group: one (or more) of the guys that does not get a spot in the rotation, Heath Hembree (as a righty-specialist, now saved from being DFAd by the Buchholz trade), Fernando Abad (as a lefty-specialist), and Robbie Ross Jr. (as a multi-use guy). Peter Abraham has more on the depth the Red Sox have built in the relief corps. All in all the bullpen looks, at least on digital-paper, to be a strength of the team.

Quick Hits

As the Red Sox consider trading from their starting pitching depth and how such trades could impact the final form of the bullpen, they should keep in mind the trickle-down effect that Chris Sale will have on the pitching staff. Tim Britton of the Providence Journal notes that with the acquisition of Sale, the Red Sox now have three of the 15 pitchers who threw 200+ innings in 2016. That sort of length from the rotation should make John Farrell’s bullpen decisions easier.

Adding Sale to the rotation makes it stronger than it was in 2016, however there are concerns about it being too left-handed (Sale, Price, Rodriguez, and Pomeranz). This could be especially problematic for the Red Sox given their home park, which tends to be unfriendly to lefty pitchers. Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal digs into the numbers, specifically those of current (and potential) AL East foes. It could be a unique Red Sox rotation in terms of handedness, but two of the four (Sale and Price), have shown they can consistently get anybody out, so things should be fine.

Blake Swihart’s top-prospect status and bumps in the development path have kept him in the forefront of trade rumours. Being a top-prospect means other teams want him, and the bumps in development suggest the Red Sox would be willing to part with him. But Peter Gammons reported that Dave Dombrowski refused to include Swihart in any deal. At MassLive.com, Christopher Smith details how Swihart’s age, performance at the plate in the second half of 2015, and uncertainty surrounding Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez, likely contributed to Dombrowski’s reluctance to trade Swihart.

In 2016, as the Red Sox fought to win the division they relied on a rookie, Andrew Benintendi, in left field. This led Christopher Smith to wonder if a similar situation will happen in 2017 with first baseman Sam Travis. Travis is returning from an ACL tear but if he gets back on the track he was on before the injury, it is reasonable that he could make his major league debut this summer. As Smith notes, Travis could platoon with Mitch Moreland at first base and push Hanley Ramirez to full time DH duties. There are many moving parts to this and a lot has to break right for it to happen, but it is an interesting idea nonetheless.

Speaking of Hanley, Ian Browne has a nice article detailing how the slugger is excited for the 2017 season and looking forward to taking over the DH role from his buddy, David Ortiz. Hanley is so much fun, especially when things are going well for him on the field, so here’s hoping he builds on his strong 2016 season.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Want to guess how many innings Craig Kimbrel threw all series? 1 1/3. Yeah. So. Anyway.

When you take two occurrences: 1) Francona’s lethal (to the other team) bullpen usage and 2) Buck Showalter’s lethal (to his own team) refusal to use Zach Britton in an elimination game he eventually lost because no save situation had presented itself yet, it seems we are at one of those tipping points in baseball where before things were a certain way and now they are different. This, combined with the bullpen-based success enjoyed by the Kansas City Royals over the previous two seasons, means that we are going to see a change in the way teams value and presumably treat relief pitchers.

The point is relievers were already valued highly, but after this season, they’re going to be even more expensive to get. Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman will both be free agents this offseason, but they’re going to get contracts that heretofore would have been unheard of for a reliever. The reality that signing either will likely cost the signing teams their first-round draft pick as well means these are going to be expensive additions to any ballclub.

Fortunately the Red Sox already have Craig Kimbrel. Whatever you think of the deal that brought him to Boston and the way he pitched at the very end of the regular season, Kimbrel is an elite-level closer and should be up to filling that role in 2017. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox can’t or shouldn’t sign Jansen, but it means they don’t absolutely have to. In fact, despite popular perception, the Red Sox are in a pretty good spot with their bullpen.

In fact, to prove this point, let’s look at how the Red Sox could build a good bullpen from players currently available to them. Any bullpen requires depth; the more capable guys you have, the better your team will be able to overcome the inevitable injuries that crop up during a 162-game season. That said, to avoid getting too far into the weeds, I’m going to focus on the opening-day roster. The Red Sox started last season with eight relievers on their roster, but now with the retirement of David Ortiz, it’s possible John Farrell decides to expand the bench by one for better flexibility.

Going into the 2017 season, the Red Sox are virtually guaranteed to have the following in their bullpen:

Craig Kimbrel (Closer)
Robbie Ross (LHP)
Matt Barnes (RHP)

Despite the way the postseason has played out, we shouldn’t expect anything more from Kimbrel than to pitch the ninth inning during the regular season. Ross was a bit under the radar this year but was an effective weapon against both right-handed hitters and lefties, holding the former to a .660 OPS and the latter to a .545 OPS. He’s a lefty but doesn’t need to be used only against his own kind, meaning he’s likely the seventh inning guy who can step into the eighth or sixth inning if circumstances dictate it. That opens the door to a different lefty specialist if the Red Sox want.

Then there’s Matt Barnes. He was markedly better this season than last, bringing up the strikeouts and dropping the home-run rate. There’s still a walks problem there, though, which makes him tough to trust in important situations. Yet given his youth and inexperience out of the bullpen, it’s not crazy to think there’s maybe another gear in there somewhere. Even if he only replicates 2016, Barnes is worth rostering.

That’s three. The fourth is probably Joe Kelly. Considering his success out of the pen at both the end of the season (14 innings, 20 strikeouts, 0.64 ERA) and in the playoffs (3 2/3 innings, three strikeouts, no baserunners allowed), it’s intriguing to think what he could do over a full season. Between he, Barnes and Kimbrel, the Red Sox have three guys who can hit the upper-90s with ease.

That’s a pretty solid top four, but that wasn’t in doubt. The trick is finding quality for the rest of the spots, as those guys are going to have to pitch too. Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara are both free agents. One or both could be brought back, but for now, let’s let them both go and see what we can do internally.

Although Robby Scott didn’t make the postseason roster, he did pitch well for Boston during the stretch run (six innings, five strikeouts, two walks, no runs). His time in Triple-A has shown he can get hitters from both sides of the plate out, but his funky side-arm delivery is probably best against mostly — if not exclusively — left handed hitters. Still, he’s a young guy who has had success and represents a different look than the high heat from most of the other bullpen members listed above.

There’s something about the way Heath Hembree throws. Whatever it is makes it near impossible for right-handed hitters to hit, but lefties all turn into Jose Altuve against him. Still, considering most batters are right-handed, and Hembree’s ability to give multiple innings in games where the result has already been decided one way or the other, he has value. If Farrell starts to shelter him against lefties a bit more than he has previously done, his results might even improve.

So that’s four top relievers and two platoon specialists. After that, the Red Sox have some choices. Fernando Abad could be tendered a contract, though if Scott is going to be on the major-league roster, the Red Sox don’t need another lefty specialist, especially one who projects to cost four-to-six times more. Roenis Elias is another option if the team wants to move him to relief full time. His potential in the pen is intriguing, but it’s difficult to count on a guy in a role he’s never played before.

And now having said that, I’m going to contradict myself. Kyle Martin isn’t on the 40-man roster, so he didn’t get a call-up in September, but the 6-foot-7 reliever was very effective out of the pen in Triple-A, striking out 78 in 66.2 innings. He has the control and command to back those strikeouts up with a reasonable walk rate, and he only surrendered five homers last season. Martin’s the perfect last reliever in that he could be good, or the Red Sox can easily send him back down without losing him.

In addition, Brandon Workman could be back and healthy at the start of the season. At some point, potentially around the first month or so of the season, the Red Sox could see the return of Carson Smith as well.

It’s undoubtedly true that the Red Sox bullpen would be improved with the addition of either Chapman or Jansen. Any bullpen would. But the cost, the loss of available funds to devote to other parts of the roster, the loss of a draft pick and the money associated with that pick, combine to make doing so significantly expensive. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox shouldn’t explore the free-agent market for relievers. They could bring back Uehara, Tazawa or even Brad Ziegler, any of which would move either Martin or Scott to Triple-A.

But the important thing is the Red Sox don’t have to do any of those things. The bones and flesh of a good bullpen are already here. With the departure of David Ortiz and the arbitration raises due to the team’s young stars, if there is money to be spent, it should probably go to a player who can contribute in the middle of the lineup with the bat, not one who will throw just 60 innings.

Photo by Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

It is safe to say that the 2016 version of the Boston Red Sox were not built on a model of winning through run prevention. But, critically this group is better on the run prevention side of the game – relative to the league – than they were in each of the previous two seasons:

This year the Sox are basically a league average group in the runs allowed department. A factor in the improved run prevention is a much improved defense. Another table:

As is evident from the table, the defense is converting a higher percentage of balls in play into outs this season. As Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal points out, with Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Chris Young as the four primary outfielders, the Red Sox have a center fielder available for all three outfield spots.

It is not just the outfield where things are improved. Evan Drellich of The Boston Herald highlights how Dustin Pedroia is back on top at second base, Xander Bogaerts has been about the same, Travis Shaw/Aaron Hill have been a major upgrade on Pablo Sandoval at third base and Hanley Ramirez has been only slightly below average at first base.

Executing defensively is an often over-looked, but nevertheless important component of winning baseball. The Red Sox have been better defensively in 2016 than they were in the dismal 2015 and 2014 seasons. This has certainly contributed to their being at the top of the AL East standings, rather than the bottom.

While the defense has been better, it cannot overcome the issues that currently exist in the bullpen. By reliever DRA Red Sox relievers have been the 10th best group in baseball this season (3.98), but the month of August has been ugly. Matt Barnes, Fernado Abad, and Junichi Tazawa have performed their way out of high-leverage roles. Tazawa talked to Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Herald about his desire to earn his setup role back, but recognizes that he needs to be more consistent with his mechanics. The failings of those three, along with the increasingly unlikely return of Koji Uehara, leaves an opening for Joe Kelly – who is currently dominating at Pawtucket (1.34 RA9, 28/3 K/BB in 19.0 innings) – and Clay Buchholz to assume those ever-important high-leverage roles in front of Craig Kimbrel.

Buchholz talked to John Tomase of WEEI.com about his life as a reliever and how he had to think about the game in a slightly different way. Specifically, Buchholz noted that he needed to work on getting the feel for stranding inherited runners. Buchholz has pitched well in a relief role but he has also pitched better as a starter lately, which as Nick Cafardo notes, makes the decision on what to do with him difficult. Using Buchholz in a sort of “fireman” role where he enters games in important situations and throws multiple innings could work, so long as Buchholz, and perhaps even more importantly John Farrell, understands how that role works. Of course, all of this also depends on how well Steven Wright and Eduardo Rodriguez perform over their next few starts.

Regardless of how it shakes out, the bullpen needs to be a strength over the remaining 30 games if the Red Sox are going to hold onto their playoff spot.

Quick Hits

The David Ortiz retirement tour continues to be a smashing success. Seemingly every night the big man moves past another Hall of Famer on a hitting category leaderboard. When he hit his 30^th home run of the season last week he become the oldest player in baseball history to have a 30-homer season. Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe outlines the incredible final season Ortiz is putting together and suggests we bask in the presence of a player going out on top.

There are not many aspects of Mookie Betts’ game that are considered weak, but if there was one it would be his throwing arm. Yet, this past week Mookie flashed the results of two years of work on his throwing mechanics when he nailed Kevin Kiermaier at third base from deep foul territory in right field. Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal writes that while arm strength was always there, accuracy was Betts’ problem. Slowing things down helped with his accuracy. Now, as Alex Speier of The Boston Globe notes, Betts’ arm is getting recognized as an asset, and in at least one instance changed the oft-used Andrew McCutchen comp to Roberto Clemente.

Lost among the natural turmoil of the baseball season is the fact that Pablo Sandoval is still a member of the Boston Red Sox. Sandoval was shut down for the season in April after revealing a left shoulder injury that required surgery. He joined the team in Tampa Bay last week and, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes, the results of Sandoval’s training regimen are clear, and the road back is looking good. Ideally Sandoval can put his disastrous first season in Boston and the tumultuous Spring Training this year in which he was fighting for his job behind him and get back to performing at a high level for the remainder of his tenure in Boston.

There are many stories of starting pitchers who behave differently on the days they start from the days when they are not scheduled to pitch. According to a story from Rob Bradford, for Rick Porcello the difference is Hulk-like, as Porcello changes from a mild-mannered guy on non-starting days to an angry, locked in competitor when he is starting. The story seems to suggest that Porcello’s fierceness on start days is (at least partly) responsible for his success this season. While that could be the case, it leads me to wonder if Porcello’s behavior was different last year, when he struggled, and if being with a new team had any effect on how he comported himself on start days.

The players at Pawtucket could soon be playing in a revamped McCoy Stadium. Janet Marie Smith, architect of the recent upgrading of Fenway Park, was at McCoy Stadium to throw out the first pitch as part of the team’s honoring “Women and Baseball”. Bill Koch of The Providence Journal details Janet Marie Smith’s nearly three decades around the game – including her leadership role in the development of Camden Yards and Baltimore’s Inner Harbor – and how Larry Lucchino likely seeking her guidance could play a role in Pawtucket’s future.

Three Good Game Stories

Last Friday night the Red Sox played their first game at home in almost two weeks and Steven Wright returned to the mound following a trip to the disabled list but the Red Sox lost 6-3 to the surging Royals. Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com has more on Wright’s return and the Red Sox’s offense failing to capitalize with runners in scoring position. The difficulty this team has had when hitting with the bases loaded is really weird.

David Price took the mound on Saturday and held the Royals to two runs over six innings while the offense rebounded from Friday night’s loss to score eight times. The win was great, but as Chris Mason of The Boston Herald writes, the story of the night was Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia had a chance to get a major league record 12^th consecutive hit in his plate appearance in the eighth inning, but grounded out. The comments from teammates on getting to watch Pedroia go for the record are great.

In the rubber match of the three game series, the Royals Royals’d the Red Sox to death in an eight run sixth inning. Julian Benbow of The Boston Globe details the failures of Matt Barnes and Robbie Ross Jr. to clean up the mess Eduardo Rodriguez left for them in that disastrous sixth inning. Pitching, specifically relief pitching, continues to be the glaring limitation of this playoff-caliber team.

Photo by Mike DiNovo/USA Today Sports Images

Going Deep

The Red Sox have two starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly, set to return from stints on the disabled list. Jason Mastrodonato of The Boston Herald notes that Rodriguez will make at least one more rehab start in the minor leagues, and could be given more time in the minors if he still has rust to shake off. When he and Kelly are set to return, they will necessitate a shuffling of the deck in the rotation.

David Price is keeping his spot. Price’s 6.14 ERA is ugly, but it is largely driven by uncharacteristically high BABIP (.362) and low left-on-base rate (57.3). His 2.88 FIP indicates he has been much better. Also, he is David Price. Clay Buchholz is maddeningly frustrating, but despite silly comparisons of him to John Danks, he has the ability to rip off a stretch of solid outings and should get the chance to do so. Rick Porcello seems to have sorted out his 2015 problems and while his 2.76 ERA is likely to rise, his 3.59 FIP is better than league average and a mark we will take.

That leaves two spots for Steven Wright, Henry Owens, Rodriguez and Kelly. While Wright throws an unpredictable pitch, making him difficult to project, he has pitched too well (1.67 ERA, 3.22 FIP) and too consistently (at least 6 innings per start with fewer than three runs each time) to demote. That, and he is out of options, so any demotion to the minor leagues comes with the risk of losing him to another club. Owens remains a work in progress, whose performance (seven walks in 9.1 innings) this season has not really convinced anyone he is ready for a spot in the big league rotation. Barring an injury in the interim, I think a rotation of Price, Buchholz, Porcello, Rodriguez and Wright will be best going forward. Ultimately, this sends Owens back to Pawtucket with Joe Kelly in tow. That is if the team remains determined to use Kelly as a starter. If not, they can (finally) convert him to a reliever, thereby adding another hard throwing option to the ‘pen.

Carson Smith, one of the Red Sox’s major offseason acquisitions, was activated from the disabled list on Tuesday night. Smith provides another weapon to use in high leverage spots and should help John Farrell distribute the workload more effectively. Smith throws from a sidearm/three-quarter arm slot that, as Tim Britton of The Providence Journal notes, is unique for a pitcher of Smith’s height. Smith’s low release point is something that can lead to a large platoon split, but his career split is fairly typical and, regardless, he gets both righties (.199 TAv) and lefties (.219 TAv) out at an excellent rate.

Having a weapon of Smith’s caliber looming might lead to a pattern of overuse, but Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports that John Farrell is aware of the need to ease Smith into things and that the team will likely carry an extra pitcher for a week or two to ensure they are covered. Once he is back to full strength, having Smith mixed in with Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa as the high-leverage group, Tommy Layne in a LOOGY role, and Robbie Ross Jr. and Matt Barnes (or Heath Hembree) as low-leverage guys, will make this bullpen formidable. Moreover, if the team wants to run an 8-man relief unit, then, as noted above, I can certainly find a spot out there for Joe Kelly.

Quick Hits

The Red Sox closed out the month of April with a 14-10 record (+21 run differential), half a game behind the Orioles for top spot in the AL East. Ian Browne of MLB.com has an interesting look at the up-and-down month the team had last month. Digging in on a more granular level, Chad Finn of Boston.com evaluates each player on the roster, determining who has exceeded expectations, who has performed to expectations, and who has underwhelmed us thus far.

One player who Finn has in the exceeding expectations category is Travis Shaw. Amidst all of the Pablo Sandoval controversy, Shaw has hit in the middle of the lineup (.303 TAv) and has handled his defensive duties at third base admirably. Tim Britton of The Providence Journal notes that Shaw has worked hard on his defense at third base, specifically developing the ability to go to his backhand.

Through 26 games the Red Sox best player by wins above replacement player has been Xander Bogaerts. He is a rock at shortstop and has handled hitting at the top of the lineup well, maintaining a .300-plus batting average (.304), while increasing both his on-base (.372) and slugging (.431) percentages from his 2015 marks (.355/.421). Alex Speier of The Boston Globe provides more insight into the awesomeness that is Xander.

Prior to his strong outing on Wednesday night, Clay Buchholz has been miserable this season. In a rare moment of specificity, John Farrell commented on Buchholz’s need for improvement. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes that Buchholz received his manager’s message and is working hard to be better, but wants to avoid putting too much pressure on himself, as that can lead to unintended negative outcomes.

The Red Sox offense has been a force thus far. They have generated the most runs in the American League (135) and as a group have posted the league’s second best TAv (.268) behind only the Tigers (.273). Tim Britton writes that hitting coach Chili Davis is owed a lot of the credit for the team’s excellent offensive performance through the first month of the schedule.

Three Good Game Stories

The Sox capped their series sweep over the Yankees with a thrilling comeback victory on Sunday night that featured Christian Vazquez homering off of Dellin Betances. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe has more on the game and Vazquez’s big hit.

Steven Wright had another solid start on Tuesday night, but the bullpen faltered and the offense could not solve Jose Quintana, as the Red Sox fell to the White Sox in Chicago. Peter Abraham outlines how a tip from David Price after the first inning helped Wright regain his release point.

Jason Mastrodonato notes that a shuffled lineup worked well for the Red Sox in their 5-2 win over the White Sox on Wednesday night. David Ortiz hit the 509^th home run of his career, Xander Bogaerts got on base four times, and Clay Buchholz quieted, at least temporarily, the calls for his demotion.

Photo by Mike Dinovo/USA Today Sports Images

On December 7, the Red Sox traded for Carson Smith (and Roenis Elias), and all of a sudden they had a great bullpen. That’s what bringing in one of the best young relievers in the game will do.

This is sort of an oversimplification of how Boston’s offseason has gone, but it’s also an accurate rough sketch. The Red Sox bullpen went from bad to good to great in two moves, using a get-rich-quick scheme that may actually work.

We all know who Kimbrel is, to the point where it’s not really worth discussing him much. (Actually, that’s not accurate — he’s always worth discussing.) With that said, he’s not really as interesting as the less-heralded Smith. I don’t want to say that Smith is underrated, because if you bring him up, basically everyone will acknowledge that he is very good at pitching baseballs.

The Red Sox bullpen went from bad to good to great in two moves, using a get-rich-quick scheme that may actually work.

The issue is that he’s not really brought up all that much, which makes some sense given his circumstances. He spent his first full season on an uncompetitive west coast team with very little time being spent as a closer. Unless you’re a hardcore baseball fan or play in a fantasy league that counts holds, there wasn’t much reason to pay attention to Smith besides the few times you saw him on leaderboards.

Speaking of those leaderboards, let’s take a quick look at his broad numbers last season and how they compare to the rest of the league. Spoiler Alert: They’re super good. In 70 innings, Smith ended the year with a 2.31 ERA, a 2.09 FIP, a 2.67 DRA and a 66 cFIP. Those last two marks were good enough for a top-20 and top-10 finish, respectively, among all pitchers who tossed at least 50 innings.

So, as most of us knew but not enough of us acknowledge on a regular basis, Smith was Capital E Elite in 2015. That’s interesting, but not the most interesting part of his season. Exactly how he was able to be so dominant is something worth discussing.

When you look around the league, the top relievers in the game typically possess one of two qualities. You have one group — the larger group, admittedly — that just mows batters down. These are the Kimbrels, the Andrew Millers, the Aroldis Chapmans who seemingly strike out every other batter they face. Honestly, this is what people think of when they think of a prototypical closer.

There’s also another group, though, that’s a bit less heralded but almost as effective. This is the group that induces ground balls, which in turn limits home runs and blown saves. These are the Mark Melancons and Brad Zieglers. Smith, on the other hand, belongs to both groups in a way that is absurdly rare in the history of the game.

In 2015, Boston’s new reliever struck out 32.4 percent of his opponents, better than all but 10 of the 329 pitchers with at least 50 innings. He also induced ground balls on 65.6 percent of the batted balls he allowed, better than all but five of those same pitchers. Last season, he was one of just three pitchers to strike out at least a quarter of his opponents with a groundball rate of at least 60 percent. Tyson Ross and Zach Britton joined him in that group. Going all the way back to 2000, Smith’s 2015 was one of just eight individual seasons to reach that mark.

Last season, Smith was one of just three pitchers to strike out at least a quarter of his opponents with a groundball rate of at least 60 percent.

But wait, there’s more! Britton and Smith are the only players to have struck out at least 30 percent of their opponents to go along with a 60 percent groundball rate for as long as those numbers have been tracked.

Obviously, that makes Smith an invaluable weapon for John Farrell. If used correctly, he can be the glue that holds this pitching staff together.

Obviously, he is capable of closing if he’s needed in that role for whatever reason. He fits much better coming in with runners on base, though. If the other team is threatening, regardless of how early in the game it is, Smith can put a stop to a rally with a strikeout or a grounder in a manner few other teams in baseball can match.

Even the Orioles and Britton— who is an even better version of Smith — can’t utilize this advantage given Britton’s role as late-game stopper. We’re all going to see Smith a lot more in 2016, and it will be hard not to come away impressed by how he combines two of the most important qualities a pitcher can possess.

Photo by Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images

For me, Steven Wright is a really interesting part of the Red Sox roster. Given that he is likely to serve as a swing-man in Boston, going between the backend of the rotation and middle relief, or spend a chunk of his time in Pawtucket, it is easy to see why he would get overlooked. But the versatility Wright brings in taking on those fringy roles is why I think the 31-year-old Wright and his ever-developing knuckleball will have an important role in the coming Red Sox season.

Wright was selected 56^th overall in the 2006 draft by the Cleveland Indians. At the time, he was a conventional pitcher featuring a fastball, changeup and a breaking pitch, but, simply put, the conventional approach was not working all that well. Look at his ERAs from the 2007-2010 seasons and you’ll find five of his nine stints end with an ERA over 4.50. Sure, some of those stints involve low innings-pitched totals, but, in general, the numbers show that he was wanting in effectiveness. The inconsistent and, for the most part, poor performance, led Wright to be bounced back and forth between starting and relieving in those seasons, and to him tinkering with the knuckleball at the end of 2010. He needed to add an out-pitch, found success with it and from then on worked as a knuckleballer.

Wright arrived in the Red Sox organization at the 2012 trade deadline as part of the swap with Cleveland for then-highly-touted prospect Lars Anderson. Since arriving in the Red Sox organization Wright has pitched well in the minor leagues (3.45 ERA, 2.1 K/BB in 313.1 IP), and posted mixed results in his opportunities with Boston that work out to a pretty decent line (3.95 ERA, 2.1 K/BB in 107.0 IP). It is not clear if he will be on the Opening Day roster, but regardless, Wright will need to remain flexible with his role if he wants to spend much time in Boston.

What Went Right in 2015

Wright split his time between Pawtucket and Boston last season. At Pawtucket he was used exclusively as a starter, while in Boston he started nine games and appeared in seven more as a reliever. Despite throwing a largely unpredictable pitch, Wright showed good control. Between the two levels he struck out 94 batters while only walking 42, which is a good ratio and indicative of his ability to throw strikes. But looking at things on a more granular level reveals just how well he controlled his knuckler. During his time in Boston last season – the stint for which PITCHf/x data is available – Wright fluttered over half of his pitches through the strike zone (54.8%). Wright’s in-the-zone rate was the fifth-best in baseball among the 190 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings last year, and much higher than the 2015 league average rate (47.8%). Wright’s level of strike-throwing last year was comparable to guys like Max Scherzer, David Price and Shelby Miller, but Wright’s mark is remarkable given that three quarters of his offerings were a knuckleball.

Throwing pitches in the strike zone is one thing, but doing so while not getting knocked all over the ballpark is another. Hitters tend to perform better when contacting pitches in the strike zone, so limiting contact is an important aspect of throwing in the zone. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs pointed out in an article last March, Wright has a history of being very good at minimizing contact on pitches in the zone. This ability continued in 2015, as his zone-contact rate (79.3%) was the third-lowest in baseball among that same group of pitchers who tossed 70 or more innings. He trailed only Max Scherzer (79.0) and Dellin Betances (78.7). Other players at the top-end of this list include Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Matt Harvey; those are cherry-picked examples but represent company worth keeping.

Having a pitch like Wright’s knuckleball that moves a lot but ends up in the zone and generally avoids getting hit seems like a good combination:

Wright’s knuckleball is ridiculous tonight https://t.co/Byaixnwbtb

— Sox Lunch (@Soxlunch) August 6, 2015

What Went Wrong in 2015

Despite controlling the strike zone and limiting contact within it, Wright was not exactly the elite pitcher I may have made him out to be in the previous section. Among those pitchers who threw at least 70 major league innings last season, Wright’s cFIP (113) was 38th worst and his DRA (4.11) was 98th worst, although right around league average (96 DRA-). These middling marks were driven, at least partially, by his good fortune in getting batted balls turned into outs. Good fortune is not something typically considered as “going wrong,” but it is in the sense that it clouds the interpretation of how Wright actually pitched. His BABIP-against last season in Boston was a paltry .252, which was much lower than was previously typical for him: .320 in his 34.1 major-league innings prior to 2015, and .297 in his 1005.0 minor league innings, which includes the .331 mark he posted for Pawtucket last year. An 80-point swing in BABIP across levels in the same season is huge and not really something we should expect Wright to maintain.

You may think that some of his fortune with batted balls was a result of getting weak contact. We know that he did well in limiting contact, so perhaps the contact he allowed was not all that great. It is a reasonable hypothesis, but one that ultimately lacks support. Again comparing him to those pitchers who posted 70-plus major league innings last season, Wright allowed the 14th highest rate of hard hit contact (33.9%). He had the honor of being at the top of that prestigious chart with teammates Joe Kelly and Rick Porcello, ranked third and 24th, respectively. In case you missed it, Red Sox pitchers were hit hard in 2015. Wright allowing hard-hit balls as often as he did makes the low BABIP-against all the more surprising. He was frequently allowing rockets, but as it turns out they were often hit right at somebody, which is just lucky. If those rockets start finding holes his slightly below league-average runs-allowed rate will quickly be considerably above league-average, thereby limiting his effectiveness. All told, the 2015 cFIP and DRA numbers offer a more realistic measure of what we should expect from Wright going forward.

While hard hit balls were a concern for Wright while he was on the mound, unfortunately he did not have a chance to make adjustments over the final six weeks of the season, as he was struck in the head with a ball in early August while completing his daily running drills during batting practice. He was diagnosed with a concussion and initially placed on the 7-day disabled list, however, his concussive symptoms persisted to the point that he was transferred to the 15-day DL and ended up missing the remainder of the season. The Red Sox training staff, and folks at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Sports Medicine Concussion Program ensured that Wright was not rushed back into the lineup. Instead they worked towards a goal of having him enter the offseason healthy and able to prepare for the 2016 season.

Outlook for 2016

Anticipating the performance of a knuckleballer with any certainty is for the most part a fool’s errand. They throw an unpredictable pitch that can be at the mercy of the wind, humidity or myriad other factors on the night it is thrown. However, Wright has shown an advanced ability to control the pitch, so he has the potential to be effective. The good news for Wright (and the Red Sox) is that he doesn’t need to be much more than league average. Even at his averagish cFIP and DRA marks in 2015, Wright was a positive contributor, accumulating 0.7 WARP. If Wright pitches at a roughly similar level but is used flexibly and as a result throws more innings, he could be a 1- to 2-win contributor. Wright can start, he can relieve, he can eat up innings to save a bullpen, and his primary pitch has a positive knock-on effect for the next guy to toe the rubber. For these reasons Wright can be an important piece on this team throughout the coming season.

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