We can start with the easy part which is figuring out the top two contenders are Chris Sale (the reason this article is appearing on this website) and Corey Kluber of the Indians. You could, should you want to do such a thing, make a case for Luis Severino of the Yankees, Justin Verlander of the Tigers/Astros or even our own Craig Kimbrel, but realistically none of those guys are likely to get any first place votes. Relievers don’t typically win the Cy Young in seasons when there is an outstanding and thus deserving starter unless they do something insane like not allowing a run all year. And even then, they usually don’t win. Kimbrel has been fantastic this season but he has given up 10 runs so, even with a strikeout percentage over 50 percent, it’s not happening for him. Verlander has been fantastic in the second half and had he put together two halves like like it he’d be among the frontrunners to win, but he didn’t, and in fact his first half was pretty mediocre. Throwing 104 innings of 4.73 ERA ball, even when you follow it up with excellence, isn’t going to get it done. So Kimbrel and Verlander are out. We’ll leave Severino in for now and move on to the next paragraph.

Let’s now take a step into the weeds for a moment and mention that defining “best” is, at best (see what I did there?) difficult, and at worst problematic and impossible. If you’re of the sabermetric sort, we could agree that Wins Above Replacement is the way to go, but then which one? There are three and they’re all calculated differently. On the other end of the spectrum there are pitcher wins, which to me are statistical garbage, but to others have varying relevance. This is why this kind of thing is never as clear cut as we’d like it to be. Sometimes there isn’t an answer to the question we ask, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t ask and it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t spend time trying to learn the answer. So here we are.

This is Baseball Prospectus so let’s start there. By WARP, Chris Sale is the leader by about a half win (8.09 WARP to 7.67 for Kluber). Severino is fourth in the AL with 5.45 behind the two above and the Rays’ Chris Archer. Archer has had a pretty impressive season but two things are holding him back from being a finalist here. His ERA is four point who cares that’s too high to win the Cy Young Award, and he’s 9-11. Pitcher wins are, as previously noted, statistical garbage, but a losing record is going to be a tough hurdle to overcome especially in comparison to his competition. But back to BP. So Sale has a half WARP lead over Kluber, but you could make a counter argument for Kluber which is this: Sale has thrown 18.1 more innings. That’s typically cited as a reason to vote for Sale, but with their WAR figures so close, it’s Kluber who has been more valuable on a per-inning basis.

So there’s that. But this actually gets more interesting as we move on to other forms of WAR. Over at FanGraphs they have Sale leading Kluber and Severino 8.2 to 6.9 and 5.6, respectively. So by their math, Sale has been worth over a win more than Kluber and at that point we get beyond the vagaries of the formulas and start to have a real difference in value. But then we get to Baseball Reference. They have Kluber ahead of Sale, 7.6 to 6.2, with Severino down at 5.2 so that tells us two things. First, Severino ain’t winning this so enough about of him. Second, huh? I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of how these stats are calculated, so instead, let’s do something that we probably shouldn’t do and add all the WAR numbers up. When you do that, Sale gets to 22.5 and Kluber gets to 22.2. With that little math mistake buried 800 words deep, let’s just say that the totality of the WAR numbers have Kluber and Sale as extremely close in value, too close to make any kind of decision on who is better.

So let’s go more mainstream and see if that helps. Both pitchers have 17 wins (as of this writing), both are striking out right around 35 percent of the hitters they face (Sale is at 36.3 percent, Kluber at 34.6 percent) and walking about five percent (Sale is at five percent, Kluber at 4.7 percent). Both have given up 20 homers, three wild pitches, and neither has balked. To this point it seems like a draw, but there are two separators. The first is Sale has 300 strikeouts (Kluber is at 252). Even if it did happen in this era of increased strikeouts, reaching 300 strikeouts is a serious and notable accomplishment. Unfortunately for Sale, that pretty neat accomplishment doesn’t necessarily mean he’s better than Kluber. Still, voters (to the extent we can know what they’ll do) might think it does. That is, if they can get over the second thing, which is the difference in ERA. Kluber’s ERA is 2.35 which leads the American League by a lot, 0.40 over the second place pitcher who happens to be Chris Sale.

It feels bizarre to pin the outcome of this on two starts after about 30 have already elapsed for each pitcher, but that’s how close it is. It’s close enough that two starts matter, one way or the other.

That’s a monumental advantage for Kluber. Voters will probably see it and vote for Kluber, but here’s the thing: by FIP it’s Sale who has the huge advantage, 2.19 to Kluber’s 2.46! But by DRA, it’s Kluber who is up, 2.00 to 2.12!

[head explodes]

Taking this all in as much as I can with an exploded head, it seems to me that while he’s been on the mound, Kluber has probably been the incrementally better pitcher. So the answer to all of this depends in part on how you value the extra 18.1 innings that Sale has thrown and in part on what we don’t yet know, namely what happens in the next two starts that each pitcher has before the season ends. It feels bizarre to pin the outcome of this on two starts after about 30 have already elapsed for each pitcher, but that’s how close it is. It’s close enough that two starts matter, one way or the other.

Kluber’s next two will be in Seattle on Sunday and at home against the Chicago White Sox, though the Indians might hold him out in preparation for the playoffs. Sale’s next two scheduled starts are at home against the Blue Jays and Astros, though like Kluber, Sale may not take the hill at all for the second one. So maybe it isn’t two starts at all, but one more start.

For now, if forced to vote, I’d pick Sale because of the extra innings he’s thrown, the lower FIP, and, I’ll admit, because I think the 300 Ks is pretty darn cool. I had hoped to finish this piece off by making a definitive statement. I had hoped to show who was really the better pitcher. But it’s close. It’s extremely close! It’s so close that there really isn’t a correct answer. At least not right now, and with likely only one or two starts remaining for each pitcher, probably forever.

Photo by Patrick McDermott – USA TODAY Sports

But there’s good news, everyone! The Red Sox, if you haven’t heard, have lots and lots of money. $95 million spread out over half a decade isn’t all that much in the grand scheme of things to this ball club. In addition to a lucrative farm system that has recently developed some ready-made stars, the Red Sox profit from a massive fanbase and repeated successes to have one of the largest payrolls in baseball, one that rubs shoulders with the luxury tax threshold from time to time. This all might seem like me reciting things you already know in a slightly condescending tone, but I promise I’m going somewhere with this.

Think of all the big, awful contracts the Red Sox have had since the beginning of the decade. Carl Crawford, obviously. Josh Beckett’s extension is a plausible one. Daisuke Matsuzaka’s posting and deal were pretty bad. Hell, if you wanted to be really petty, you could say Julio Lugo’s four-year, $36 million deal was big and terrible due to the player they offered it to, and you’d have some compelling arguments. Looking back on those deals, could you honestly say any one of them crippled the short- or long-term future of the Red Sox? Probably not. Definitely not, if you consider the state of the payroll in 2017.

The Red Sox have effectively recovered from all their major contract screw-ups because they are a factory of money. It gives them a ton of leeway to make these huge deals in the first place. If those transactions don’t pan out, the torrent of cash that flows in allows the Sox to either cut those players and eat the money, or trade them away and still get something of value back, since they’re still paying a large percentage of the contract. Money gives the Red Sox a large margin of error, and the payroll can effectively tank the hit of a couple bad deals.

It isn’t just the exorbitant bidding in free agency that boxes out small-payroll teams – it’s the extreme regression risk that comes with any mega-deal.

This is the benefit of having a luxury-tax-pushing payroll that isn’t discussed very often. The inequality between the Red Sox and a team like the Rays or Athletics usually comes in the form of being able to make those deals. The Red Sox can price out those teams for any given player, if they felt compelled to do so. What isn’t talked about enough is what could happen after that deal is struck. A team like the Sox or Yankees can be saddled with a failure of a mega-deal (see: Ellsbury, Jacoby) and continue to compete and win. For the Rays and A’s, however, a player falling off on a huge deal would utterly cripple their short-term payroll and outlook, and might adversely affect their long-term plans. It isn’t just the exorbitant bidding in free agency that boxes out small-payroll teams, since deferments are a thing – it’s the extreme regression risk that comes with any mega-deal.

Pablo Sandoval would’ve earned an even $17 million this year. The Rays could fit Chris Archer’s, Kevin Kiermaier’s, Wilson Ramos’, and Corey Dickerson’s salaries into that with room to spare. The A’s would have wiggle room if you combined what Jed Lowrie, Yonder Alonso, and Rajai Davis are all getting paid in 2017 and shoved it in there. For those teams, having a player implode with $17 million attached to their name would deny them quite a lot of useful additions and potential trade chips. Now imagine losing out on getting good players on one-year deals – and the potential prospects that you’d receive by trading them – for four more years. That’s catastrophic at best, and a front office house cleaning at worst.

Sometimes, though, even the big payroll teams reach their limit. Burdened with Beckett’s contract extension, Crawford’s albatross contract, and the first year of Adrian Gonzalez’s extension, the Red Sox were hurting for salary relief. In a move that was the polar opposite of the Sandoval deal, Cherington offloaded all three of those contracts (plus Nick Punto) to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and while the prospects they received didn’t amount to much, getting over $250 million of salary off your books is still pretty damn good. The Red Sox were saved from a decade of payroll crunches due to a very shrewd waiver trade in August. They found the limits of the margins their money made for them.

This isn’t something that should be touted, honestly. It’s more of an unspoken benefit, a representation of the disparity in revenue between some of the teams in baseball. That kind of money allows for teams to not just go out and get players they want, but to make mistakes, and quickly recover from them. Sometimes big contracts work, and sometimes they don’t. The difference here is that when they don’t, the Red Sox can deal with it.

The Red Sox, as you may know, have been bad this season. They’ve been especially bad against AL East opponents, and even worse on the road. That spells trouble for the Sox this weekend as they begin a seven-game divisional road trip in St. Petersburg to take on the first-place Tampa Bay Rays at the Trop. Let’s look at what to expect as these teams meet for the third time this season.

Tampa Bay Rays – Current Record 41-33 – Projected Record 86-76

After a fourth-place finish in 2014, the Rays were projected to finish near the bottom of the standings once again this season. It made sense. Tampa lost manager Joe Madden to the Cubs, dealt David Price at the deadline and Ben Zobrist in the offseason, making an already underwhelming roster look even worse on paper. What the Rays have accomplished thus far has been downright impressive. They sit in first place, have one of the best rotations in baseball despite being depleted by injuries and show no signs of slowing down.

Probables

Rick Porcello vs. Alex Colome, Friday, 7:10 p.m.

Is there a bigger bang-your-head-against-the-wall pitcher in baseball right now than Rick Porcello? If so, I’d rather not meet him. Watching Porcello has been nothing short of maddening. Just look to Saturday in Kansas City as evidence of that. The right-hander looked strong through the first four innings, and was even handed a 4-1 lead. But he imploded for five runs in the fifth inning, turning a comfortable advantage into his sixth straight loss. Porcello’s inability to compile shutdown innings is only part of the problem. As Ryan Morrison pointed out this week, Porcello’s biggest issue this season has been his pitch selection and location. Porcello is using his four-seamer and his changeup more than ever, and leaving more pitches up and getting crushed by hitters. Although he’s getting more strikeouts, Porcello’s 5.61 ERA and 1.35 HR/9 is telling of where he is right now.

Fortunately for Porcello, his counterpart, righty Alex Colome, has been prone to clunkers as well. Colome has allowed five or more runs in three games this season, striking out fewer batters, walking more and surrendering more homers than Porcello. Colome, however, has been much better lately, allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. He was especially strong in his last outing Sunday, tossing a one-hit shutout with four strikeouts over seven innings. Colome is at his best when his command is on, something he showed in April when he shut down the Sox in Boston.

Wade Miley vs. Matt Andriese, Saturday, 4:10 p.m.

Wade Miley has been strong in his two starts since the dugout meltdown with John Farrell in Baltimore, combining for two runs in consecutive victories. Miley had one of his most impressive outings of the season Sunday, holding the All-Star-laden Royals scoreless over six innings while working in a good pitch mix. The lefty threw four of his five pitches 19 or more times, getting whiffs on 15 percent of his changeups and 13.8 percent of his sliders. He finished with just two strikeouts, his lowest total over his last four starts, but overcame trouble and command issues by keeping hitters off-balance. Miley’s repertoire is certainly an asset, and will be key if he is to remain effective.

The Red Sox have a bad habit of making little-known starters look like aces. That reality must have Matt Andriese chomping at the bit despite seeing mixed results in his two-and-a-half-month major league career. The Rays initially brought the righty up as a reliever, but injuries to Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore and recently Jake Odorizzi forced Andriese into the rotation. Andriese isn’t going to pile up strikeouts, but he has decent command and mid-90s velocity on his fastball and sinker to go with good swing-and-miss ability on his cutter. Andriese’s longest outing this season lasted 5.2 innings, so it’s essential for him to be aggressive in the strike zone and avoid working high pitch counts early.

Justin Masterson vs. Chris Archer, Sunday, 1:10 p.m.

Joe Kelly has finally lost his spot in the Red Sox’s starting rotation. His replacement? None other than Justin Masterson. It’s not much of an upgrade, but it’s at least worth watching. Masterson was placed on the disabled list in mid-May with what was described as “right shoulder tendinitis” after sporting a 5.26 FIP through seven starts this season. The righty made four rehab starts in the minor leagues and had a 3.29 ERA and 7.90 K/9 in three starts in Triple-A Pawtucket. Masterson was originally moved to the bullpen upon activation, but never made an appearance. Sunday will be crucial in him earning a starting spot again.

Archer finds himself in some elite company so far this season, all while carrying a team that lacks in offensive prowess and has had four starting pitchers on the disabled list. The righty has allowed one run or fewer in 10 starts this season, tying him for second in the majors with Max Scherzer and one behind Zack Greinke, who has 11. Archer boasts an upper-90s fastball and a deadly swing-and-miss slider, lifting him to a 10.75 K/9 as he’s reached double-digit punchouts in four starts this season. Archer is more than just the guy calling out David Ortiz for admiring home runs. He’s now a dominant force on the mound who owns a 2.23 FIP and a major league leading 2.79 PWARP.

Opposing Lineup

The Rays have stuck with a consistent lineup throughout the season, with the only change coming when James Loney went on the disabled list with a fractured finger. Jake Elmore has since moved to first base, leaving Tampa with a righty-heavy lineup.

Kevin Kiermaier – CF – L – .267/.303/.435, .284 TAv
Joey Butler – DH – R – .327/.367/.503, .317 TAv
Evan Longoria – 3B –R – .274/.356/.409, .292 TAv
David DeJesus – LF – L – .291/.349/.430, .291 TAv
Logan Forsythe – 2B – R – .292/.374/.451, .308 TAv
Steven Souza – RF – R – .228/.321/.448, .280 TAv
Asdrubal Cabrera – SS – S – .206/.262/.327, .216 TAv
Jake Elmore – 1B – R – .245/.290/.327, .241 TAv
Rene Rivera – C – R – .162/.203/.262, .170 TAv

The Rays are 23rd in baseball with a .260 team TAv. They’ve relied heavily on the top of their order, which was hindered by Loney’s injury, to produce, and have yet to get much out of offseason signing Asdrubal Cabrera. Like many of its successful teams over the past seven years, Tampa’s lineup is essentially Evan Longoria and a bunch of no-names. But enough of those no-names have excelled to make it work.

Recap

Despite numerous setbacks, Tampa Bay continues to prove itself as a legitimate contender in the American League. But with some favorable matchups – aside from Masterson vs. Archer  – and better play of late, the Sox may be set to turn their fortunes against the AL East leaders. However, if this season has taught us anything, prepare for the worst, Red Sox fans.

Photo by Mark L. Baer/USA Today Sports Images